Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 444670 times)

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1450 on: August 02, 2019, 01:59:42 AM »
Does that mean you'll be sleeping in a tent along the trail ?
Does that mean you'll be sleeping in a tent along the trail ?

Yep!  You coming with us? 

on my bucket list is to do each summer a leg of the Appalachian trail before I get too damn old. Almost 55 now so going to start planning it for next spring.

I'd be interested in doing 2-3 week segments over the next few springs or summers.  60yo FIREd M here, reasonably fit.  Maybe starting in GA and heading N in pieces.

Message me if interested in talking about a plan!




The more the merrier. Will have to do some research/Homework. I was actually thinking about starting on the North end and working down but either way. I just want to get in the mountains sooner the better. Tent camping or I believe there are plenty of places you can get to stay in a night or two to grab a shower etc.. Again something to start looking into/Research.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1451 on: August 02, 2019, 01:15:14 PM »
I might consider joining you for a day when I take my private helicopter over to your site.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1452 on: August 03, 2019, 01:05:38 PM »
https://www.pcta.org/discover-the-trail/

Five months of walking, eh?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1453 on: August 04, 2019, 03:48:32 AM »

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1454 on: August 04, 2019, 06:40:25 AM »
https://www.pcta.org/discover-the-trail/

Five months of walking, eh?


haha ...You in?

Some day I doubt next year.  I'd like to do pieces of it.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1455 on: August 04, 2019, 07:00:00 AM »

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1456 on: August 04, 2019, 04:15:38 PM »
PCT friends.  I hope to hike it as well some day.  May come begging a shower.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1457 on: August 04, 2019, 08:05:46 PM »
The triple crown is on our bucket list. Starting with The Green Tunnel in 2022 :)

Whoops, I don't belong in this thread.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1458 on: August 04, 2019, 10:48:05 PM »
The triple crown is on our bucket list. Starting with The Green Tunnel in 2022 :)

Whoops, I don't belong in this thread.

Hang out a while, you might like it.  We'll write you a permit.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1459 on: August 04, 2019, 11:37:02 PM »
The triple crown is on our bucket list. Starting with The Green Tunnel in 2022 :)

Whoops, I don't belong in this thread.

Hang out a while, you might like it.  We'll write you a permit.
2b1s, I dig that you read aspirationally.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1460 on: August 05, 2019, 04:02:33 AM »
The triple crown is on our bucket list. Starting with The Green Tunnel in 2022 :)

Whoops, I don't belong in this thread.

Hang out a while, you might like it.  We'll write you a permit.
2b1s, I dig that you read aspirationally.



Why not welcome here? you have to much or not enough? lol make it your goal category and ride along! always welcome

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1461 on: August 05, 2019, 09:38:45 AM »
well after the last few days of market decline, I might not belong here!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1462 on: August 05, 2019, 11:19:10 AM »
If we see a 2008 style collapse, most of you won't be here anymore.

@soccerluvof4, not nearly enough, and hope to never end up here. If I do, it means I gave up way too many years of my life working for money that I won't need.

I'll just stick around as an honorary member. This thread is really fun to read when we have any real correction in the market.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1463 on: August 05, 2019, 01:13:22 PM »
If we see a 2008 style collapse, most of you won't be here anymore.

@soccerluvof4, not nearly enough, and hope to never end up here. If I do, it means I gave up way too many years of my life working for money that I won't need.

I'll just stick around as an honorary member. This thread is really fun to read when we have any real correction in the market.

Get ready!  I'll be crying a river soon.  I was down $50K this morning.  Could be hundreds of thousands by the end of the week.  My goal is 2.5M so it's OMY, OMY till then.  Off to work I go.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1464 on: August 05, 2019, 02:15:00 PM »
Big Dip today.

I still try to figure this stuff out.

They say the dip is due to the Chinese devaluing their currency.  Why did they do this?

Our president has been doing the tariff thing which means stuff from China costs more and so they sell less.

Wall Street didn't like these tariffs from the president.  I guess they wanted the Chinese to be able to sell stuff here and money could be made from trading with the Chinese.  The tariffs mean they would sell less here.

OK - So the Chinese basically just lowered the price of their stuff by devaluing their currency.  This should offset some of the tariffs.  The Chinese will increase the volume of the stuff they sell.

I would think Wall Street would like this.  A good part of the money lost due to the tariffs would come back.  More Chinese junk could once again be sold here.

It also means that US goods will cost more in China, but other than soybeans, I haven't heard that the US sells a lot to China.  Besides, their devalued currency will most likely raise the cost of soybeans from US, Brazil or anywhere.

You guys are smart.  This stock market thing just gave my racing car a flat tire.  Take a pit stop and tell me how my race is off course.

FIRE@50

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1465 on: August 05, 2019, 02:37:42 PM »
China buys almost nothing from the US, so retaliatory tariffs are not an option. Instead, they devalue their currency which makes their products cheaper for people in the US to buy, therefore offsetting the tariffs.

Don't worry though, because trade wars are good and easy to win.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1466 on: August 05, 2019, 06:29:59 PM »
Good time to plan a vacation to China.. as long as you don't get thrown into a Chinese jail for littering or something..:)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1467 on: August 05, 2019, 06:55:28 PM »
The earnings that will be reported in coming weeks will not help. We are overdue for a big correction. Trumps Twitter account will not help.

Could very easily retest December 2018 lows, which means falling another 20% at least.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1468 on: August 05, 2019, 11:52:43 PM »
The earnings that will be reported in coming weeks will not help. We are overdue for a big correction. Trumps Twitter account will not help.

Could very easily retest December 2018 lows, which means falling another 20% at least.

Cool.. I feel better now..:)

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1469 on: August 06, 2019, 12:02:50 AM »
Good time to plan a vacation to China.. as long as you don't get thrown into a Chinese jail for littering or something..:)
Isn't that Singapore?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1470 on: August 06, 2019, 01:58:57 AM »
Double this dip do some adding. Down nearly 100k in a week. Back below the 3M line. Oh well got a house to flip and some cash stuff working on

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1471 on: August 06, 2019, 02:04:12 AM »
The earnings that will be reported in coming weeks will not help. We are overdue for a big correction. Trumps Twitter account will not help.

Could very easily retest December 2018 lows, which means falling another 20% at least.




And that would not be a bad thing but is it even for real. Every time China tariffs are mentioned the market drops hard BUT traders are making a killing because as soon as the Whitehouse says were making progress its bounced right back. In either case a correction would be welcome and probably needed. Who knows

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1472 on: August 06, 2019, 02:49:14 AM »
And that would not be a bad thing but is it even for real. Every time China tariffs are mentioned the market drops hard BUT traders are making a killing because as soon as the Whitehouse says were making progress its bounced right back. In either case a correction would be welcome and probably needed. Who knows

I'm about the least conspiracy theory minded person but even I have to ask "Cui bono?". It's a rigged game for sure but it has served me well over the years. Over the very long term, it still works (25 years in my case) - I just took a look at my S&P 500 index fund and its still showing a 93% gain, even after yesterday's drop.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1473 on: August 06, 2019, 03:31:17 AM »
Still in the club for now.   Took a 90k whooping. If another round hits, I'll be kicked back to the lower thread.  I don't wanna, it's creepy in there with those, less than multimillionaires.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 04:03:48 AM by Bateaux »

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1474 on: August 06, 2019, 08:41:35 AM »
Still in the club for now.   Took a 90k whooping. If another round hits, I'll be kicked back to the lower thread.  I don't wanna, it's creepy in there with those, less than multimillionaires.

I know, who wants to hang out with those "little people".... Ok this of course is meant as a joke but I think I just creeped myself out!

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1475 on: August 06, 2019, 08:57:35 AM »
Down $91k or 3.8% We can handle three more days like that before I have to leave the club.
Hopefully that won't happen. I feel like fall and 2020 could be a rough ride. I have decided that I will not OMY because of it. I might work harder at finding some part time or seasonal work though. I've decided that my desire to be at home with the kids is greater than my fear of having to work longer later.

You know when this happened in 2008, we had just had our first child. I don't think there was MMM, or I wasn't aware of it. And I didn't worry about our finances at all. I know our investments went from about $500k to $300k. And then I just stopped looking it. We weren't making much money. We were trying to advance in our careers. We had a new baby and bought our first home. I guess I just figured that they were just paper losses that didn't matter. It's a little harder this time around as I'm planning to FIRE in May. But I'm sticking to the plan!!!

RWD

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1476 on: August 06, 2019, 09:05:21 AM »
Still in the club for now.   Took a 90k whooping. If another round hits, I'll be kicked back to the lower thread.  I don't wanna, it's creepy in there with those, less than multimillionaires.

I know, who wants to hang out with those "little people".... Ok this of course is meant as a joke but I think I just creeped myself out!

We're always lurking.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1477 on: August 06, 2019, 01:37:17 PM »
Still in the club for now.   Took a 90k whooping. If another round hits, I'll be kicked back to the lower thread.  I don't wanna, it's creepy in there with those, less than multimillionaires.

I know, who wants to hang out with those "little people".... Ok this of course is meant as a joke but I think I just creeped myself out!

Gotta make light of it sometimes.   It's like watching a Tesla, that could have been yours drive away.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1478 on: August 07, 2019, 02:41:12 AM »
Well we got our Dead Cat bounce I was looking for NOW does it climb back up or drop some more . Nobody knows. I am locked pretty solid in this club unless we had about a 30% loss I would imagine but stings the same.

On another note anyone feel like when the market tanks the numbers/nw drops alot faster than they come back. idk if its what I am in or what or if it just feels that way. But feels alot like losing weight in reverse. Easy to gain but takes alot more energy to lose. I lost close to 6 figures over the week and on the dead cat bounce I only gained 6k back. Although I did have some pretty high auto pay paid out so probably closer to 7500 but still. Lets see how the week ends! I will take what it gives or takes either way. Have some cash I would like to put to work but need more of a pull back otherwise happy to hang on to it as well. Guess my way of versatility!

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1479 on: August 07, 2019, 02:57:52 AM »
Well we got our Dead Cat bounce I was looking for NOW does it climb back up or drop some more . Nobody knows. I am locked pretty solid in this club unless we had about a 30% loss I would imagine but stings the same.

On another note anyone feel like when the market tanks the numbers/nw drops alot faster than they come back. idk if its what I am in or what or if it just feels that way. But feels alot like losing weight in reverse. Easy to gain but takes alot more energy to lose. I lost close to 6 figures over the week and on the dead cat bounce I only gained 6k back. Although I did have some pretty high auto pay paid out so probably closer to 7500 but still. Lets see how the week ends! I will take what it gives or takes either way. Have some cash I would like to put to work but need more of a pull back otherwise happy to hang on to it as well. Guess my way of versatility!

Yes, this is how math works.

If you have $1m invested, and a 50% drop happens, you now have $500k. So you need a 100% gain to recover.

A 33.33% drop requires a 50% gain to recover, and so forth. The bigger the drop, the more difficult recovery. Think about an 80% drop. Would leave you with $200k and require a subsequent 400% gain to recover.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1480 on: August 07, 2019, 03:11:38 AM »
Well we got our Dead Cat bounce I was looking for NOW does it climb back up or drop some more . Nobody knows. I am locked pretty solid in this club unless we had about a 30% loss I would imagine but stings the same.

On another note anyone feel like when the market tanks the numbers/nw drops alot faster than they come back. idk if its what I am in or what or if it just feels that way. But feels alot like losing weight in reverse. Easy to gain but takes alot more energy to lose. I lost close to 6 figures over the week and on the dead cat bounce I only gained 6k back. Although I did have some pretty high auto pay paid out so probably closer to 7500 but still. Lets see how the week ends! I will take what it gives or takes either way. Have some cash I would like to put to work but need more of a pull back otherwise happy to hang on to it as well. Guess my way of versatility!

Yes, this is how math works.

If you have $1m invested, and a 50% drop happens, you now have $500k. So you need a 100% gain to recover.

A 33.33% drop requires a 50% gain to recover, and so forth. The bigger the drop, the more difficult recovery. Think about an 80% drop. Would leave you with $200k and require a subsequent 400% gain to recover.



The math never lies does it! lol. haha

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1481 on: August 07, 2019, 04:59:18 AM »
You can't make this stuff up.  Sometimes, I think that they do.  Look at the look of fear in the trader's eyes.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-forecast-51565117413

Then they quote some guys with a name like Fund Rat.

Here's a good sentence:

"Finally, equity sentiment has deteriorated dramatically in the U.S. and globally, and has started to resemble what it looked like ”on the eve of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse,”"

It's like - Hey guys smell that?  Yeh! Smoke.  It could be a forest fire, you know.  It might be time to get out of the woods.

These brokers who posed for the picture make money with the selling as it goes down and smile as they drive to the bank.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1482 on: August 07, 2019, 10:37:38 AM »
Lehman on the eve of 2008... Yup, maybe, maybe not....

Then I have to say to myself warm and fuzzy things like.. "This too shall pass".. Like the 2008 meltdown did and every meltdown before it!

Oh and then fact we made most of our money by investing almost 100% into stock index funds during 2008.. Heck most of us here will still have a million dollars even if there was a 2008 style collapse!

Its doesn't feel god but we'll be OK..:)

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1483 on: August 07, 2019, 11:13:42 AM »
.....and just for fun, I sold bonds to buy stocks in my IRA.  A little rebalance to take advantage of the moves of the week.....

carstenjames

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1484 on: August 07, 2019, 11:42:01 AM »
"Finally, equity sentiment has deteriorated dramatically in the U.S. and globally, and has started to resemble what it looked like ”on the eve of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse,”"

This is why I don’t read financial news ... there’s rarely any substance to it. The eve of the lehman brothers collapse had multiple banks on the verge of bankruptcy. The system was unwinding leverage at break neck speed and there were serious threats to our economic structure. I’m not saying that wont happen again but we are no where near that right now. Its just alarmist bs.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1485 on: August 07, 2019, 11:55:37 AM »
Lehman on the eve of 2008... Yup, maybe, maybe not....

Then I have to say to myself warm and fuzzy things like.. "This too shall pass".. Like the 2008 meltdown did and every meltdown before it!

Oh and then fact we made most of our money by investing almost 100% into stock index funds during 2008.. Heck most of us here will still have a million dollars even if there was a 2008 style collapse!

Its doesn't feel god but we'll be OK..:)

You'll certainly be OK, but sometimes it takes a while for things to pass.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-

What happened in 1965 or thereabouts to make a low stock market?  You would think it would have rebounded after the US went to the moon as this shows real progress.  Per the chart it wasn't until 1995 that it rebounded.  That's a generation.

It does look like gambling.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1486 on: August 07, 2019, 02:06:27 PM »
Does that chart include dividends?.. I couldn't see where if they were included or not.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1487 on: August 07, 2019, 02:55:30 PM »
Does that chart include dividends?.. I couldn't see where if they were included or not.

Quite sure it wouldn't. 

These are different times.  Back then they didn't have all the 401 K money rolling into their greedy little hands to be feasted upon by their beady  Wall Street eyes.  There is really no where else for the 401 K money to go unless laws are changed.  So, I think that is a great dampening effect upon a plunge.

Looks like it went down a whisker today.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1488 on: August 07, 2019, 08:00:59 PM »
The stock market is going crazy - the tariffs represent a very tiny hit to the economy, nothing to justify a 6% hit to stocks.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1489 on: August 07, 2019, 09:55:55 PM »
The stock market is going crazy - the tariffs represent a very tiny hit to the economy, nothing to justify a 6% hit to stocks.

No but stocks are richly valued and the trade war might spark a currency war around the globe.

Note that central banks around the world cut interest rates yesterday.. and rates are already at a very low level.

This reaction is nervousness over how bad things might get.

Interesting though how the buyers stepped in when the Dow was down about 600 points today.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1490 on: August 08, 2019, 03:04:26 AM »
"Finally, equity sentiment has deteriorated dramatically in the U.S. and globally, and has started to resemble what it looked like ”on the eve of the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse,”"

This is why I don’t read financial news ... there’s rarely any substance to it. The eve of the lehman brothers collapse had multiple banks on the verge of bankruptcy. The system was unwinding leverage at break neck speed and there were serious threats to our economic structure. I’m not saying that wont happen again but we are no where near that right now. Its just alarmist bs.

I agree exactly where nowhere near that though I still read the garbage but not with any conviction to it. When the market crashes it will be for different reasons and while we dont know what will cause it there is still alot of liquidity out there and economy is doing just fine. My guess and its just that is it will be more political than anything. We got our small dead cat bounce , yesterday was kinda a push so today should be telling.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1491 on: August 08, 2019, 05:17:01 AM »

- SNIP -

I agree exactly where nowhere near that though I still read the garbage but not with any conviction to it. When the market crashes it will be for different reasons and while we dont know what will cause it there is still alot of liquidity out there and economy is doing just fine. My guess and its just that is it will be more political than anything. We got our small dead cat bounce , yesterday was kinda a push so today should be telling.

After the crash there will be smart people that will tell us what happened, like too many car bad car loans or just irrational exuberance.  There will be a few smart ones that come out and say, "I told you so," and point to some crap written in one of the financial magazines 6 months ago.

This stuff never makes since.  Seems like they would be ape-shit happy for lowered interest rates.  It means cheaper money for people and is true trickle down economics.  People can afford to purchase boats, cars, second houses with low interest rates.  This stuff will give jobs and so help businesses.  More sales mean more money to be made and stock prices should either remain solvent or increase.

Once I pull the plug, I'm going to withdraw my 4 percent or less per annum and ignore this stuff.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1492 on: August 08, 2019, 06:12:12 AM »
The problem is that people want a narrative that explains all the weird things that happen in the global markets. The truth is that there isn't any explanatory narrative. Markets have become so complex with so much automatic trading that its very hard to come up with any kind of a post hoc explanation.

There was a mini crash a few years ago and even after much investigation, they still don't know what really caused it. See for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Flash_Crash

However, financial journalists feel compelled to fill in the gaps somehow and so come up with garbage phrases like "...the markets were spooked this afternoon.."

Roger Schank, the famous cognitive scientist says that the need for a narrative is innate in humans:

"We need to tell someone else a story that describes our experiences because the process of creating the story also creates the memory structure that will contain the gist of the story for the rest of our lives. Talking is remembering."

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1493 on: August 08, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »
So for stock market stuff you just can't say Sh*t Happens.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1494 on: August 09, 2019, 02:19:32 AM »
Amen!

StackOfCoins.com

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1495 on: August 10, 2019, 08:36:51 PM »
Inspiring thread!  Got busy with life and it's been too long since I've checked this forum.  Here's my update:

August 2015: $1.0
April 2018: $2.0
July 2019: $2.8

Obviously past performance is no guarantee of future results.  I suspect the markets might be volatile for some period of time.

Keep on keeping on!!

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1496 on: August 11, 2019, 01:00:42 AM »
Net worth as of:

EOY 2017: $2,523,000.
EOY 2018: $2,553,000.   
Current   : $2,625,000.
Circa $2,700,000.   

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1497 on: August 11, 2019, 07:24:38 AM »
Almost makes me wish I was still working.. Almost..;)

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1498 on: August 11, 2019, 09:02:29 AM »
Almost makes me wish I was still working.. Almost..;)
Best part of it is that I'm not! :)

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1499 on: August 11, 2019, 11:16:25 AM »
Almost makes me wish I was still working.. Almost..;)
Best part of it is that I'm not! :)

Even better..:)