Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 445700 times)

FIREstache

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1350 on: July 11, 2019, 02:27:35 PM »
Looks like the Dow Jones is headed for another new high!  It has bumped 27,000 for the first time.  If it doesn't crash in the last hour of the day, it will be good.

The S&P 500 couldn't quite close at 3000 today.  Final was 2999.91

My stash hit a new record, so in all, a good day.


Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1351 on: July 11, 2019, 02:47:50 PM »
Looks like the Dow Jones is headed for another new high!  It has bumped 27,000 for the first time.  If it doesn't crash in the last hour of the day, it will be good.

The S&P 500 couldn't quite close at 3000 today.  Final was 2999.91

My stash hit a new record, so in all, a good day.

Almost getting mundane.  We need a crash so I don't get silly and FIRE. 

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1352 on: July 11, 2019, 03:10:26 PM »
Looks like the Dow Jones is headed for another new high!  It has bumped 27,000 for the first time.  If it doesn't crash in the last hour of the day, it will be good.

The S&P 500 couldn't quite close at 3000 today.  Final was 2999.91

My stash hit a new record, so in all, a good day.

Almost getting mundane.  We need a crash so I don't get silly and FIRE.


Sssssshhhh!... :)

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1353 on: July 11, 2019, 04:37:57 PM »
Also, search Dr. Pimple Popper on You Tube. She handles lots of these. She has a show on cable, so start there, if you have it.

FWIW, donít watch Dr. Pimple Popper on YouTube. Just yuck. Bleh.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1354 on: July 11, 2019, 05:16:24 PM »
Also, search Dr. Pimple Popper on You Tube. She handles lots of these. She has a show on cable, so start there, if you have it.

FWIW, donít watch Dr. Pimple Popper on YouTube. Just yuck. Bleh.

Just remember.. You have to get the sac out..:)

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1355 on: July 11, 2019, 07:12:24 PM »
Also, search Dr. Pimple Popper on You Tube. She handles lots of these. She has a show on cable, so start there, if you have it.

FWIW, donít watch Dr. Pimple Popper on YouTube. Just yuck. Bleh.
I totally agree. The TV show is different than YT in that she doesn't extract much, she does bigger stuff that requires cutting and stitching [squick]. Lots of lipomas, which is why I made the recommendation, which I stand by. I only mentioned YT in case our friend doesn't have cable.
Just remember.. You have to get the sac out..:)
Aha! Proof that Frank has cable! We know he can afford it, so no face punches required.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1356 on: July 12, 2019, 12:10:01 AM »
Also, search Dr. Pimple Popper on You Tube. She handles lots of these. She has a show on cable, so start there, if you have it.

FWIW, donít watch Dr. Pimple Popper on YouTube. Just yuck. Bleh.
I totally agree. The TV show is different than YT in that she doesn't extract much, she does bigger stuff that requires cutting and stitching [squick]. Lots of lipomas, which is why I made the recommendation, which I stand by. I only mentioned YT in case our friend doesn't have cable.
Just remember.. You have to get the sac out..:)
Aha! Proof that Frank has cable! We know he can afford it, so no face punches required.

No he bloody well doesn't! I have the finest in $10 rabbit ears from Walmart..:)

Getting the sac out (using the blunt disection method) is featured heavily on her YT videos.. So there!
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 12:11:54 AM by Exflyboy »

carstenjames

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1357 on: July 12, 2019, 02:20:20 AM »
Has anyone seen these alternative graphs for CPI?

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

They are kind of scary--~10% inflation if using the pre 1980's formula.  For awhile I have felt suspicious of the CPI because it feels like prices are going up much more than what the CPI would suggest.  I know it excludes food and other things but I haven't ever dug into it too deeply.

Are we under-reporting what actual inflation is so we can feel good about things?

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1358 on: July 12, 2019, 02:33:00 AM »
Also, search Dr. Pimple Popper on You Tube. She handles lots of these. She has a show on cable, so start there, if you have it.

FWIW, donít watch Dr. Pimple Popper on YouTube. Just yuck. Bleh.
I totally agree. The TV show is different than YT in that she doesn't extract much, she does bigger stuff that requires cutting and stitching [squick]. Lots of lipomas, which is why I made the recommendation, which I stand by. I only mentioned YT in case our friend doesn't have cable.
Just remember.. You have to get the sac out..:)
Aha! Proof that Frank has cable! We know he can afford it, so no face punches required.

No he bloody well doesn't! I have the finest in $10 rabbit ears from Walmart..:)

Getting the sac out (using the blunt disection method) is featured heavily on her YT videos.. So there!
Well that's a big-ass relief. I know you're living pretty close to the edge of the safe withdrawal rate, pal. God forbid you should have to go back to work. (Hee)

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1359 on: July 12, 2019, 02:41:29 AM »
Prices have gone up for sure but inflation is relatively low

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1360 on: July 12, 2019, 02:49:40 AM »
Are we under-reporting what actual inflation is so we can feel good about things?
Haven't we always? Just for fun, take a look at how unemployment figures are calculated. Same kind of manipulation. I guess maybe the point is that if you use the same requirements consistently (even if they're absurd ), over time you can still produce meaningful data?

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-formula-3305515

carstenjames

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1361 on: July 12, 2019, 03:33:19 PM »
Are we under-reporting what actual inflation is so we can feel good about things?
I guess maybe the point is that if you use the same requirements consistently (even if they're absurd ), over time you can still produce meaningful data?

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-formula-3305515

If I am doing a monte carlo simulation and iím using a measure of inflation thats going to leave me with an income in 30 yrs that allows me to only buy 1/2 of what i could 30 years ago... thats scary.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1362 on: July 12, 2019, 04:28:46 PM »


- SNIP -

If I am doing a monte carlo simulation and iím using a measure of inflation thats going to leave me with an income in 30 yrs that allows me to only buy 1/2 of what i could 30 years ago... thats scary.

Well - It's only a guess.

Let's see 2019 - 30 = 1989

http://www.in2013dollars.com/New-cars/price-inflation/1989 - CARS

https://www.officialdata.org/Food/price-inflation/1989 - food

https://www.officialdata.org/Electricity/price-inflation/1989 - electricity

All of these are from the US government.  Can you believe what the government tells you?  Maybe -I'm not sure the moon shot 50 years ago was actually a fake.

Based on past performance, it doesn't look so bad.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1363 on: July 12, 2019, 04:31:20 PM »
Another record breaker today.  It doesn't look so bad.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1364 on: July 12, 2019, 04:36:49 PM »
Monte Carlo simulations aren't very good proxies for real life. I don't think a Monte Carlo simulation is helpful. I'd rather look at periods of time as a useful metric regarding inflation.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1365 on: July 12, 2019, 06:33:22 PM »
Start out with a 3% withdrawal and be prepared for 2% withdrawal or less in tough times.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1366 on: July 13, 2019, 03:50:11 AM »
I thought for sure there was going to be profit taking yesterday....sure glad i dont trade like I use to and am just a passive investor because I would of surely been wrong yet again with this market.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1367 on: July 13, 2019, 08:48:54 AM »
It's now definite - I'm going to quit by the years end. My wife is completely on board with my retirement plans.

Why not right away? I'm seeing some signs of instability in my company and I suspect that layoffs may happen at some point in the next few months. It would be great to leave with a severance package :-)  If I've misread the signs, no problem, I'll leave before I have to write my yearly accomplishments.

I started work in 1991 and have worked 28 straight years in tech (mostly AI). I am proud that I've lasted this long in an industry thats heavily biased towards younger employees. I've successfully reinvented myself every few years but it's definitely getting harder. As Pink Floyd says in the song Breathe (from the Dark Side of the Moon).

Quote
For long you live and high you fly
But only if you ride the tide
And balanced on the biggest wave
You race towards an early grave.

After I retire, I still will keep up with the literature and try to be an independent researcher but with the pressure of work reduced, it will become fun again.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1368 on: July 13, 2019, 02:50:57 PM »
In what ways did you have to reinvent yourself every few years in AI ?

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1369 on: July 14, 2019, 04:03:45 AM »
Well all the best to you @2sk22 . I didnt even think that AI was a thing 28 years ago be interesting to hear your story a bit about the evolution of that idustry

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1370 on: July 14, 2019, 04:32:58 AM »
Well all the best to you @2sk22 . I didnt even think that AI was a thing 28 years ago be interesting to hear your story a bit about the evolution of that idustry

There was a big wave of excitement about neural networks in the early 90s so I picked that as my dissertation topic. I was fortunate and was able to graduate fairly quickly - one of the good things about being early in a field. In fact, the papers I wrote have racked up a few hundred citations since then.

The bad thing about being early in a field: I used to get blank looks when I told people that I was working in neural networks. Consequently, I had to find a job in a completely unrelated area in computing. I'm not complaining - I was always very well paid but it was not my first choice of work.

About 10 years ago I realized that neural networks were becoming interesting again, so I worked hard to get myself back into the field. But machine learning by itself is not all that interesting and I have always had an interest in languages. So another scramble followed to get into natural language processing. In the tech world, it's all too easy to become irrelevant!

My interests have now moved more to human cognition nowadays - I just started reading a great book by Terrence Deacon about the evolution of the human mind.

FIREstache

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1371 on: July 14, 2019, 05:36:21 AM »
Are we under-reporting what actual inflation is so we can feel good about things?

Yeah, and it's getting worse.  With the new tax law, the tax table thresholds for marginal rates are indexed to chained CPI now, so that more income will spill over into higher tax brackets.  This is supposed to generate an extra 128 BILLION dollars over 10 years.

I don't track my personal inflation that closely, but it seems to be higher than what CPI or core inflation is reported.  I just got my homeowners insurance a while ago, and it's up 6% over last year.  Car registration just went up 50%.  Gas tax just increased 100%.   This is probably a bigger threat to using the 4% rule than many of the other concerns - prices/fees/taxes are almost guaranteed to go up faster than inflation that is used to calculate "real" returns.

Start out with a 3% withdrawal and be prepared for 2% withdrawal or less in tough times.

3% is probably a good suggestion considering the above.  I was aiming for some middle ground at about 3.5% WR through the first 10 years of FIRE, then drop to 2.2% when SS kicks in to cover the rest.  When and how much to do a forced reduction due to tough times is a tougher call.  I have a conservative AA, so if the market crashed, I could go some years without having to touch equities if I had to, but I would still be inclined to reduce discretionary spending if real returns on stocks go negative.  2% would still allow me to live pretty comfortably with a reasonable amount of discretionary.

alienbogey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1372 on: July 14, 2019, 09:27:02 PM »
I guess I'll play.

As I type this $2.088m in investable assets per the OP's rules.

$ 1.78m tax protected accounts.  $311k non tax protected.  (USA)

100% equities.  Approximately $400k in individual stocks, the balance in sector and index funds.

Yeah, we're overdue for a bear market, but we'll just ride it out like we always have.


pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1373 on: July 15, 2019, 07:08:42 AM »
I guess I'll play.

As I type this $2.088m in investable assets per the OP's rules.

$ 1.78m tax protected accounts.  $311k non tax protected.  (USA)

100% equities.  Approximately $400k in individual stocks, the balance in sector and index funds.

Yeah, we're overdue for a bear market, but we'll just ride it out like we always have.

Ride it out in the bear market.

https://www.google.com/search?q=woman+riding+the+bear+picture&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=pdhL9kMdeZPVoM%253A%252Ceq8UVippolPnwM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kRQrv5mJjqVtdqlLBD3tY8YtV-kGA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjqlILm_rbjAhVSQ80KHaOGDiAQ9QEwAHoECAkQBA&biw=1366&bih=654#imgrc=pdhL9kMdeZPVoM:

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1374 on: July 16, 2019, 03:29:32 AM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1375 on: July 16, 2019, 10:03:02 AM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!
I prefer to think of it as affirming. Markets always go up. Markets always go down. It's entirely predictable  What's less certain are the exact intervals. Talking about this and supporting each other helps prevent wholesale panic when the inevitable happens.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1376 on: July 16, 2019, 10:06:33 AM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!

Ok.  How about something completely different.

Are we in the advanced class now beyond risk?

Can we just nonchalantly keep our money at higher risk now?

A 50 percent drop in the market only drops any of us to $1,000,000 if fully invested.

400K of my stash is in a cashable pension. 

200K of my stash is in VBTLX.

As long as you can live Mustacian for a few years, you're good.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1377 on: July 16, 2019, 11:02:29 AM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!

Ok.  How about something completely different.

Are we in the advanced class now beyond risk?

Can we just nonchalantly keep our money at higher risk now?

A 50 percent drop in the market only drops any of us to $1,000,000 if fully invested.

400K of my stash is in a cashable pension. 

200K of my stash is in VBTLX.

As long as you can live Mustacian for a few years, you're good.

Exactly.. My current WR is about 1.5%.. A 50% dump in the entire portfolio puts me at 3%.

My current VBTLX/ca$h would last us over 18 years... or until I'm 76.

Heck if the market does take a 50% haircut I might even move to 95/5 just because it would be entertaining to see our NW go ballistic on the recovery..:)


pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1378 on: July 16, 2019, 01:08:40 PM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!

It sets me off the deep end:

Yeh - I try to figure all of this stuff out big picture and I never can.  I figure part of it is somehow based on the chaos theory.  You know the math thing where they say a butterfly flapping his wings can somehow induce a hurricane on the other side of the world.  Sounds fantastic to me but there are black holes, quantum theory and dark matter.  The world is full of fantastic things.

Smart people claim there is a business cycle and we are overdue for the downturn.  The last one was bad.  Too much debt in buoyed up housing prices where the productivity of the worker paying off the debt couldn't match the wants of the creditor.  They say the debt is rising again.  Housing prices have certainly gone up.  Zillow says my house is 160 percent of what I paid for it.  Some small financial butterfly may induce that hurricane.

I look at that Dow Jones chart.  I guess it hit another record yesterday.  It has the appearance of positive feedback.  It won't stop until the system implodes upon itself.  It seems to have little basis in reality.  Most of us have new electronic gizmos, but the stability has gone out of a lot of people's lives.  The future is uncertain and the end is always near.

You can have a million dollars after a crash, but if the system has imploded your money will just be numbers on a computer screen.  They say it can't happen here, but they say lots of things, don't they?  Some say we don't have the global warming thing while others show us the glaciers disappearing.  Then there's things we used to worry about 50 years ago - about the time we went to the moon.  I haven't heard the phrase nuclear armageddon in a while.  Has the chance of it gone away?  I don't think so.

They wisely put in a lot of checks and balances after the great depression of 1929.  I've heard they've been removing them a little at a time.  Who is out there protecting you?  Is it government rules or rules of the banks?  When the crash comes, they will come to claim their borrowed chips.  When the chips just aren't there, what is going to happen?

https://io9.gizmodo.com/12-ways-to-prepare-for-the-next-great-depression-378581

Nah - Nothing to be depressed about.  Just have your master plan to back down to 3 percent for a bit.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1379 on: July 17, 2019, 09:14:59 AM »
Wow this just all sounds depressing!

It sets me off the deep end:

Yeh - I try to figure all of this stuff out big picture and I never can.  I figure part of it is somehow based on the chaos theory.  You know the math thing where they say a butterfly flapping his wings can somehow induce a hurricane on the other side of the world.  Sounds fantastic to me but there are black holes, quantum theory and dark matter.  The world is full of fantastic things.

Smart people claim there is a business cycle and we are overdue for the downturn.  The last one was bad.  Too much debt in buoyed up housing prices where the productivity of the worker paying off the debt couldn't match the wants of the creditor.  They say the debt is rising again.  Housing prices have certainly gone up.  Zillow says my house is 160 percent of what I paid for it.  Some small financial butterfly may induce that hurricane.

I look at that Dow Jones chart.  I guess it hit another record yesterday.  It has the appearance of positive feedback.  It won't stop until the system implodes upon itself.  It seems to have little basis in reality.  Most of us have new electronic gizmos, but the stability has gone out of a lot of people's lives.  The future is uncertain and the end is always near.

You can have a million dollars after a crash, but if the system has imploded your money will just be numbers on a computer screen.  They say it can't happen here, but they say lots of things, don't they?  Some say we don't have the global warming thing while others show us the glaciers disappearing.  Then there's things we used to worry about 50 years ago - about the time we went to the moon.  I haven't heard the phrase nuclear armageddon in a while.  Has the chance of it gone away?  I don't think so.

They wisely put in a lot of checks and balances after the great depression of 1929.  I've heard they've been removing them a little at a time.  Who is out there protecting you?  Is it government rules or rules of the banks?  When the crash comes, they will come to claim their borrowed chips.  When the chips just aren't there, what is going to happen?

https://io9.gizmodo.com/12-ways-to-prepare-for-the-next-great-depression-378581

Nah - Nothing to be depressed about.  Just have your master plan to back down to 3 percent for a bit.
Wow! One thing FIRE did for me was free me from worrying about all this crap. I lived for years on very little while I was reaching for my goals, I know I have the skills to live on less, but now I don't have to. Not all recessions are huge, why assume the next one will be devastating?

I just re-read your post. If you have enough to be a member of this group and still feel this way, you're doing something wrong. Living with this level of fear is anti-mustachian, and incredibly sad. Frankly, it's a wasteful use of your life energy.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1380 on: July 17, 2019, 12:00:40 PM »
Yeah @Dicey On the one hand we should have the freedom to not worry at all, but the habits that got us to this happy place involves a degree of worry.

Old habits die hard I guess ..:)

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1381 on: July 17, 2019, 04:35:16 PM »
Yeah @Dicey On the one hand we should have the freedom to not worry at all, but the habits that got us to this happy place involves a degree of worry.

Old habits die hard I guess ..:)
Dunno, if you read that specific post, you might agree that's an unusual level of worry. Worrying over "What ifs?" that you have absolutely no control over is counterproductive IMO. Also IMO, (since you didn't ask ;-) is a possible solution. Do something to help others. Volunteer somewhere, help a friend or neighbor out, whatever. It's the best tonic for almost anything that ails you, instead of worrying about far-fetched doomsday scenarios. How the hell do you think we got this far? It's not likely that we're going to wake up on any given morning and find life as we know it suddenly and irrevocably changed. Even after terrible things happen (God forbid) we figure out a new normal and get on with the business of living. Prepare, yes, to a reasonable degree. Worry all the time? Hell, no!

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1382 on: July 17, 2019, 05:19:09 PM »
Yeah @Dicey On the one hand we should have the freedom to not worry at all, but the habits that got us to this happy place involves a degree of worry.

Old habits die hard I guess ..:)
Dunno, if you read that specific post, you might agree that's an unusual level of worry. Worrying over "What ifs?" that you have absolutely no control over is counterproductive IMO. Also IMO, (since you didn't ask ;-) is a possible solution. Do something to help others. Volunteer somewhere, help a friend or neighbor out, whatever. It's the best tonic for almost anything that ails you, instead of worrying about far-fetched doomsday scenarios. How the hell do you think we got this far? It's not likely that we're going to wake up on any given morning and find life as we know it suddenly and irrevocably changed. Even after terrible things happen (God forbid) we figure out a new normal and get on with the business of living. Prepare, yes, to a reasonable degree. Worry all the time? Hell, no!

Reread the last line to know just how serious I was about all of that.  None of that keeps me up at night.  I was just tossing in two cents of BS.

I'm not quite retired yet, but the volunteering idea IS a wonderful idea. 

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1383 on: July 17, 2019, 05:21:52 PM »
Yeah @Dicey On the one hand we should have the freedom to not worry at all, but the habits that got us to this happy place involves a degree of worry.

Old habits die hard I guess ..:)
Dunno, if you read that specific post, you might agree that's an unusual level of worry. Worrying over "What ifs?" that you have absolutely no control over is counterproductive IMO. Also IMO, (since you didn't ask ;-) is a possible solution. Do something to help others. Volunteer somewhere, help a friend or neighbor out, whatever. It's the best tonic for almost anything that ails you, instead of worrying about far-fetched doomsday scenarios. How the hell do you think we got this far? It's not likely that we're going to wake up on any given morning and find life as we know it suddenly and irrevocably changed. Even after terrible things happen (God forbid) we figure out a new normal and get on with the business of living. Prepare, yes, to a reasonable degree. Worry all the time? Hell, no!

Reread the last line to know just how serious I was about all of that.  None of that keeps me up at night.  I was just tossing in two cents of BS.

I'm not quite retired yet, but the volunteering idea IS a wonderful idea.
I did read your last line, several times. I was hoping the rest was all rather tongue in cheek. What a relief! Who can carry all that shit around in their heads and still have a happy, carefree life?

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1384 on: July 17, 2019, 05:30:29 PM »
Well a lot of it is still real.

As the old AA prayer goes:

God grant the serenity to change the things you can change, accept the things you can't and have the wisdom to know the difference.

I haven't been to AA, but that prayer always made a lot of sense.

Again, it fits in with the volunteering as helping someone else is a change that one can do both for yourself and others.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1385 on: July 18, 2019, 04:23:26 AM »
All we have is historical data so things will come back typically I believe its two years but what if not this time? I dont really worry about it but I do think about it as it keeps me sharp on my toes i believe. I would be fine with a 50% drop and not panic but it would be a gut bust because it has been so good and with politics you just dont know. Anyhow I like the position we are in and thats all we can do as there are no guarantees ever.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1386 on: July 18, 2019, 07:48:36 AM »
All we have is historical data so things will come back typically I believe its two years but what if not this time? I dont really worry about it but I do think about it as it keeps me sharp on my toes i believe. I would be fine with a 50% drop and not panic but it would be a gut bust because it has been so good and with politics you just dont know. Anyhow I like the position we are in and thats all we can do as there are no guarantees ever.

You bet!  When I get down these days, I take a step back, smile and think I won't ever have to work again.

Things ought to be good.  People are working.  They need new stuff.  They are buying it.  Some have had it bad for some time and now are working.  there is lots of stuff that has fallen apart that needs to be repaired, i.e. roads, bridges, etc.  Gas prices are still relatively low and more is produced domestically.  There are only the BS wars going on and not a big one.  Home prices are going up and that only means people have money to spend on said houses.

Stock markets keep hitting all time highs!

I think even politics are going to change for the better.  An election is coming up next year.  The folks in power want to keep the good times rolling until the election.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1387 on: July 18, 2019, 08:21:53 AM »
I've been reading this thread and thinking about how many times in the last nine years or so (since things started to bounce back after the 2008 dip) we've sat around and said another pull back is coming. I specifically remember that folks were predicting it after Trump was elected and we had the "Trump Bump". There were times in the last nine years that I sat on cash because I was waiting for a dip. I know, I know, shame on me for trying to time the market.

Not that far up thread you all were teaching me that in order to live off my investments successfully, I've got to be flexible. Because one cannot wait until it your net assets hit some magical number that will be "enough". There are too many factors to determine that.

And a 1.5% WR is CRAZY.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1388 on: July 18, 2019, 11:16:28 AM »

Not that far up thread you all were teaching me that in order to live off my investments successfully, I've got to be flexible. Because one cannot wait until it your net assets hit some magical number that will be "enough". There are too many factors to determine that.

And a 1.5% WR is CRAZY.

I would agree with you but (as a 1.5%er)  I am a "victim" of circumstance. When I RE'd in Jan '14 we were comfortably at around a 3% WR. Since then our investments have roughly doubled but our spend has not gone up much.

So unless we start buying sports cars and flying business class everywhere there is not much I can do about it. Buying stuff really doesn't bring us much pleasure.

Maybe during/after the next recession our standard international airline seat will be business class.. Would be nice..:)

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1389 on: July 18, 2019, 11:26:12 AM »
  I am a "victim" of circumstance.


How Terrible! ;)

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1390 on: July 18, 2019, 11:28:50 AM »
For a variety of reasons, I am seriously contemplating shifting to a rising equity glidepath, as discussed by Kitces in this article:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/

Basically what this seems to do is ensure that your initial stash is not hit by SORR early on in your FIRE journey.  You may lose out on some returns early on if the markets continue to rise, but you also mitigate your risk substantially.

Wondering if anyone else is using this strategy.

I had not heard of this, but it makes sense. I'm curious though, if you've had an AA of 80/20 through your accumulation years how do you switch to a glidepath strategy for retirement? Especially an early retirement? How do you implement this?

ysette9

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Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1391 on: July 18, 2019, 11:59:33 AM »
For a variety of reasons, I am seriously contemplating shifting to a rising equity glidepath, as discussed by Kitces in this article:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/

Basically what this seems to do is ensure that your initial stash is not hit by SORR early on in your FIRE journey.  You may lose out on some returns early on if the markets continue to rise, but you also mitigate your risk substantially.

Wondering if anyone else is using this strategy.
That has been my plan up until a week ago when I got the Living Off Your Money book by this guy McClung. It is a beast of a textbook with massive amounts of simulations and data to back up his recommendations.

In a nutshell he goes through a bunch of asset allocation strategies as well as drawdown strategies and while the reverse equities glidepath is decent (better than annual rebalancing of a static AA), it isnít as good as the best strategies he recommends.

Iím only halfway through the book and find it immensely valuable. Iíd love a virtual book club if anyone else is interested and wants to toss ideas around with me.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1392 on: July 18, 2019, 02:03:01 PM »
For a variety of reasons, I am seriously contemplating shifting to a rising equity glidepath, as discussed by Kitces in this article:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/

Basically what this seems to do is ensure that your initial stash is not hit by SORR early on in your FIRE journey.  You may lose out on some returns early on if the markets continue to rise, but you also mitigate your risk substantially.

Wondering if anyone else is using this strategy.
That has been my plan up until a week ago when I got the Living Off Your Money book by this guy McClung. It is a beast of a textbook with massive amounts of simulations and data to back up his recommendations.

In a nutshell he goes through a bunch of asset allocation strategies as well as drawdown strategies and while the reverse equities glidepath is decent (better than annual rebalancing of a static AA), it isnít as good as the best strategies he recommends.

Iím only halfway through the book and find it immensely valuable. Iíd love a virtual book club if anyone else is interested and wants to toss ideas around with me.

Just remember the answer will be... 42...:)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZLtcTZP2js
« Last Edit: July 18, 2019, 02:04:41 PM by Exflyboy »

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1393 on: July 18, 2019, 03:24:13 PM »
Nobody ever defined the membership rules for this club.

With all due respect, I defined it in the first post when I started this thread.

Quote
As with the "2" thread, I'm counting investable assets.  Not house, not rental property, not cars, not silver coins.  Too easy to cheat with stuff that needs to be valued, in my humble opinion.

The intent of defining it this way was to say that what you're counting is what you could reasonably liquidate to live on right now.  You wouldn't liquidate your house right now, so it doesn't count.  Note that this has nothing to do with net worth. 

Other things might be available IF (big if) you could liquidate it in....lets say 2 weeks and it could then be spent to support you.  A pension?  Sure....IF (again, big if), you have a lump sum option that you qualify to cash in now.  I have a lump sum option in a small pension worth about $50k.  But it isn't available until I hit 65, so it's worth zero.

So I hope this helps define what we're counting.

Well, shoot.   I just got home from VayKay (business class long haul, ExFlyboy, and it was swweeeeeeettt) and see that my membership in this club may be revoked.  I don't have 2M+ in cash assets.   I'd have to do some serious counting, but I'd likely be in the 1-2MM club by that definition of "investable assets", and possibly booted out of that club as well.  My 10 paid for rental houses, valued conservatively, are well past 3MM and into the "and beyond" category, yet they don't count?    I consider them liquid, as they could be sold to live on if I needed it or chose to simplify.  Price them cheap enough and they'll sell by the end of the week.  But why have a fire sale when the income averages 10%?  My investment retirement planner projects that at an average rate of return, I'll die with 14MM.   That's with everything just the way it is, not liquidating rentals to buy stocks.   But I ain't dead yet! 

It's been a couple of years since I read your first post, and the thread was pretty slow for a long time.  I never re-read the requirements.   Maybe I never qualified at all!   I knew I was an outlier with the RE to stock ratio, but I didn't think I'd get the boot outta here.    Bigger Pockets has too much noise for my taste, although it's RE focused, unlike this forum.  Also,  I'm getting less Moustachian as time goes by, so not a good fit in the lower threads that focus on saving.   Awww, please let me stay, Car Jack! 

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1394 on: July 18, 2019, 06:12:48 PM »
JoJoP

Just because your rentals are not paper REIT's does not throw you out of the club.
As long as your assets are income producing and liqifiable without making you homeless, you still easily qualify for this club.

You've got investable assets.  The valuation is the iffy part.  Zillow/Redfin values are iffy, but if you assume 1/2 those values, I'd say those are bankable values.  Stock market values are similarly iffy in the nearer term, but those seem to be allowed.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1395 on: July 18, 2019, 06:58:34 PM »
Maybe we should have a "race to die with $10M+".... :)

Actually thats a better race really.. I mean if you're 90 years old with $1M in assets thats much less impressive than $1M at say 40.

Than again, if I got $1M+ at 90 something has gone seriously wrong.. oops!

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1396 on: July 18, 2019, 09:15:16 PM »
Here is a review of the "Living Off Your Money" book noted a few posts back by lHamo.  This one looks like one to search for in my local public library.

https://monevator.com/review-living-off-your-money-by-michael-mcclung/


soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1397 on: July 19, 2019, 04:23:32 AM »
Thanks @pecunia sounds interesting. Going to see if I can snag a copy at the library.

On another note the thing that is shocking is how many peoples portfolio have grown so much even being fire'd. I suppose if your living of 1.5 draw-down and have been mostly stocks. I feel like I have missed the boat some though I am up 400k over the last 5 years but I also have had large College expenses and have redone 90% of my home (75-100k) and bought a 40k boat but I also have had some income. But I seem stuck tip toeing in and out the top of this club. 60/40 Portfolio probably wasnt the best but its one of those things if I would of went higher like 80/20 then with my luck market would of tanked. Like I said I am happy and feel blessed were where we are Up while withdrawing but shucks! lol.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1398 on: July 19, 2019, 08:41:02 AM »
Maybe we should have a "race to die with $10M+".... :)

Actually thats a better race really.. I mean if you're 90 years old with $1M in assets thats much less impressive than $1M at say 40.

Than again, if I got $1M+ at 90 something has gone seriously wrong.. oops!

I hope we don't actually 'have to' die when we hit 10M!

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1399 on: July 19, 2019, 10:31:34 AM »
Thanks for the rec, ysette9.

A few pages back on this thread this topic was brought up, and I found a lot of interesting thoughtful ideas from the ERN series, specifically:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/