Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[Bateaux]

I spend a lot of time with younger friends these days.  It keeps you younger, if in nothing but attitude.  I certainly have older friends, but most of them seem old in body and mind.  I'm planning a September 14er peak bagging trip for this year.  The younger ones think that's cool, the older ones think I'm nuts.  Weekend before last I decided to put my camping gear on my bicycle and traveled 170 miles in two days.  I was run off the road, horns blown at me, rocks thrown from tires struck my body.  I plan to do much more road touring in the future, I'm just getting started. You can die or be injured seeking Type 2 fun.  But, you'll die eventually whether you pushed the limits or not.

Maybe consider switching to mountain biking.  When I was younger, I was always on my bike including competitive races in UBLA (remember that name?) which became USCF.  I'd ride from Worcester, MA to Boston to see my girl friend.  These days, I stay off the road.  Too many LOLing teenage girls in Wrangler Rubicons focusing on their phones.  None of that on the trails and I can manage logs that fall across it.

Went mountain biking Tuesday.  Only did 10 miles but still an ass kicker.  Dreaming of the Tour Divide and I'm researching the right bike right now.   My 26 inch tires hard tail with weak suspension won't cut it.  I'm going to be getting a 29er plus modern bike soon.

[soccerluvof4]

Well with the last couple days of losses I am back on the wrong side of 3M. Was nice while it lasted. Oh well.............

[Bateaux]

Well with the last couple days of losses I am back on the wrong side of 3M. Was nice while it lasted. Oh well.............

Yep, it sucks.  Still well north of 2MM, but the trade war crap has cost me around 50K on paper.   Temporary problem for those of us here.  I lost more than the average US worker makes in a year this week.  Me, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and have more anxiety over getting my driver's license renewed at the DMV today.

[ysette9]

Well with the last couple days of losses I am back on the wrong side of 3M. Was nice while it lasted. Oh well.............

Yep, it sucks.  Still well north of 2MM, but the trade war crap has cost me around 50K on paper.   Temporary problem for those of us here.  I lost more than the average US worker makes in a year this week.  Me, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and have more anxiety over getting my driver's license renewed at the DMV today.

We all are very fortunate and it is good to be reminded of it.

[Exflyboy]

Well with the last couple days of losses I am back on the wrong side of 3M. Was nice while it lasted. Oh well.............

Yep, it sucks.  Still well north of 2MM, but the trade war crap has cost me around 50K on paper.   Temporary problem for those of us here.  I lost more than the average US worker makes in a year this week.  Me, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and have more anxiety over getting my driver's license renewed at the DMV today.

We all are very fortunate and it is good to be reminded of it.

Yes.. To have enough money so none of us have to work another day in our lives.. Thats pretty stinking awesome!

[soccerluvof4]

Well with the last couple days of losses I am back on the wrong side of 3M. Was nice while it lasted. Oh well.............

Yep, it sucks.  Still well north of 2MM, but the trade war crap has cost me around 50K on paper.   Temporary problem for those of us here.  I lost more than the average US worker makes in a year this week.  Me, I'm drinking a cup of coffee and have more anxiety over getting my driver's license renewed at the DMV today.

We all are very fortunate and it is good to be reminded of it.

Yes.. To have enough money so none of us have to work another day in our lives.. Thats pretty stinking awesome!

Amen to that!

[soccerluvof4]

Today is a trip to say the least! Taking it in the shorts but luckily I have been planning for a drop like this and much bigger.

[Exflyboy]

Today is a trip to say the least! Taking it in the shorts but luckily I have been planning for a drop like this and much bigger.

Well we're only about 4.5% from the all time high. Scary as it might be (is) this is still within the normal yearly range of pullbacks. Didn't we hit -20% on Christmas Eve?

I figure that when I see my cat worried thats when I'll have a full melt down panic..:)

[londonbanker]

Today is a trip to say the least! Taking it in the shorts but luckily I have been planning for a drop like this and much bigger.

Well we're only about 4.5% from the all time high. Scary as it might be (is) this is still within the normal yearly range of pullbacks. Didn't we hit -20% on Christmas Eve?

I figure that when I see my cat worried thats when I'll have a full melt down panic..:)

Agree. Less than 5% is not even a correction, just a blip. I am actually secretly hoping for a 15-20% dip (more if affinity) as a way to move forward. There is just so much bad news not priced in that it makes me nervous to go past 3000 without a proper pressure release.

Oh wait - but I still have another 46years to live (according to my life expectancy age group) so why do I care about any correction today?? Irrelevant over that period of time really.

[Exflyboy]

 got 41 years according to this calculator... Can I buy some from you?..:)


https://www.blueprintincome.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/results?id=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&lc_r=y

[londonbanker]

got 41 years according to this calculator... Can I buy some from you?..:)


https://www.blueprintincome.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/results?id=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&lc_r=y

I do not buy in that calculator - I have the feeling it is designed to convince you that you need a huge annuity to take you to 90+ yo. I ran my stats and it says I will live to see 98 - please make that not happen, pleeeesase!

Just for fun, I re-ran that model, added 80lbs to my weight, started smoking, maxed out the nbr of drinks per week, stopped all kind of physical exercise (I still fully intend on keeping the bedroom kind) and guess what - I still get to live to 88yo... so why bother then hey?!?! I think losing 10yr or life expectancy to indulge in most sins isn’t a bad price to pay lol !!

[wannabe-stache]

Today is a trip to say the least! Taking it in the shorts but luckily I have been planning for a drop like this and much bigger.

any day i lose $30K is not a particularly great day...

also, i know it's a really bad day when i make the statement "ahh, that's why i'm 30% fixed income"

[Exflyboy]

Today is a trip to say the least! Taking it in the shorts but luckily I have been planning for a drop like this and much bigger.

any day i lose $30K is not a particularly great day...

also, i know it's a really bad day when i make the statement "ahh, that's why i'm 30% fixed income"

Nice... I'm at 25% but would move that down if we get a juicy pullback..:)

[pecunia]

To heck with this 4 percent thing.  I ran the calculator and should have been dead 2 years ago.

[Exflyboy]

To heck with this 4 percent thing.  I ran the calculator and should have been dead 2 years ago.

Yeah, might want to up that a notch..:)

[Bateaux]

I missed an awesome bike ride with my New Orleans riding friends tonight.  They put down 30 miles in some of the nicest weather possible.   I'm working tonight and sulking over my losses today.  My riding crew are younger guys, like twenty years younger. I struggle to keep up.  They have different struggles.   The amount I lost today could change their lives.  Me, I'm pissed I missed the ride.  One guy almost bailed out on the ride because he couldn't spare the fare for the Mississippi River ferry.  The other guys covered him like good friends will.  I wanted to paypal him a hundred dollars so bad.  I don't want to change our relationship though.  If I were there, I'd no doubt spotted him the $4 fare.  They know I have money and a good paying job.   So.far that hasn't caused any strange vibes.  There is a high degree of respect and appreciation within our small group.  I suffer a bit of imposter syndrome but that's all me. 

[soccerluvof4]

40k drop but I didn't jump off the ledge. Another dip like that time to put a little cash to work.

[Dicey]

Drop? What drop? Not looking, don't care. What an unexpected luxury!

[Car Jack]

Heck....my bond funds went up over $1500.  :D  I tend to always look at the bright side of my investments.  Stocks went down?  Huh?  I didn't look at those.  Why would I?

[Bateaux]

From the tippy top I'm down about 60K.  Still in the club however and that's all that matters.  Two million is my lifetime floor level.

[Threshkin]

Ugh,  We have been trying to break 2.7M since last August.  We keep getting almost there, then.....

First world problem!

Had my annual physical yesterday, the doctor told me I have a 10% chance of having a heart attack within the next ten years.  Sobering.

[ysette9]

Wow, that is sobering. I presume you can do stuff to help make sure the 90% chance of not having one wins out?

[Threshkin]

Wow, that is sobering. I presume you can do stuff to help make sure the 90% chance of not having one wins out?

Well the biggest factors are age and sex.  Not much I can do about either of those.  I am pretty much already doing all the other good stuff.

One problem with a healthy lifestyle is that it is hard to improve upon.

[londonbanker]

Wow, that is sobering. I presume you can do stuff to help make sure the 90% chance of not having one wins out?

I might be missing the point of probability but 90% wins out 9 times out of 10 :-)
I assume you meant taking steps to move that 90% upwards ?

[ysette9]

Wow, that is sobering. I presume you can do stuff to help make sure the 90% chance of not having one wins out?

I might be missing the point of probability but 90% wins out 9 times out of 10 :-)
I assume you meant taking steps to move that 90% upwards ?

Correct.
Or that when you roll the die, your single roll ends up in the 90% bucket and not the 10% bucket.

[Exflyboy]

Ugh,  We have been trying to break 2.7M since last August.  We keep getting almost there, then.....

First world problem!

Had my annual physical yesterday, the doctor told me I have a 10% chance of having a heart attack within the next ten years.  Sobering.

I bet your Doc was probably talking generally.. I.e 10% of all males of a certain age (your's) who are otherwise healthy will likely have a heart attack in the next 10 years.

Guess what?.. A certain percentage will get cancer, bubonic plague and HIV too!

Look on the bright side.. with $2.7M, at least you will be able to afford a US based heart attack..:)

[Exflyboy]

Well what the heck... The market was supposed to go down 15% according to the talking heads.. I was going to roll some bonds to stock!

Now we're only 3.2% away from an all time high

This makes so sense.. Gosh my life is HARD!...;)

[londonbanker]

I agree, the “fake” correction is terribly disappointing- I am still sitting on the best part of $1m in cash that’s slowly getting invested through average investing... I was hoping to get a big lump in!! Not this time I guess

[pecunia]

Be careful what you wish for.  There are secondary effects to major disruptions to the stock market.  People lose their homes.  People lose their jobs.  The spiral is downward.  It's just a stack of cards that a minor puff could topple.

[soccerluvof4]

Well what the heck... The market was supposed to go down 15% according to the talking heads.. I was going to roll some bonds to stock!

Now we're only 3.2% away from an all time high

This makes so sense.. Gosh my life is HARD!...;)

My sentiments exactly except I wanted to put some cash to work. Think today could be telling if this is just a head fake .

[itchyfeet]

I attended a function/ party a few weeks ago hosted by a private equity fund. I was invited by a friend.

Nothing is free in this world and my “friend” gave my phone number to the sales guy from the fund.

Today, I took their call and agreed to meet for coffee next week to be polite. They fed and watered my wife and I (loads of booze), so I will let them pitch to me as payment for an awesome night out.

I look forward to applying a bit of heat to their sales pitch next week when I meet them.

Give me a few questions I can ask to make them squirm a little...

I don’t want to disclose the fund, but at this stage there seems to be a lack of transparency with their investments.

Also, I google stalked the partner that I boozed with at the function and note he has a nice collection of exotic cars. That seems like a lot of money going in the fund’s employees pockets, rather than in their investors pockets. Maybe we’ll discuss cars first 😝

[markbike528CBX]

..snip....
I look forward to applying a bit of heat to their sales pitch next week when I meet them.

Give me a few questions I can ask to make them squirm a little...Snip......

Also, I google stalked the partner that I boozed with at the function and note he has a nice collection of exotic cars. That seems like a lot of money going in the fund’s employees pockets, rather than in their investors pockets. Maybe we’ll discuss cars first 😝

Where are all the customer's 'exotic cars?, is a good lead-in.
Where Are the Customers’ Yachts by Fred Schwed ~ 1940, for reference.

Nice party, how much did it cost, and why should MY money be used for such in the future.

Endgame/nuclear option: Please describe how your organization differs from Bernie Madoff's.

Disclaimer: My wife tore up an invitation to a "financial" dinner/ talk/ sales event, as both of us realized that I would just be a raging a-hole.  YMMV.

How did Madoff get so far as to become a pun, " he Madoff with my money".  Almost as bad as the Bobbit story.

[Exflyboy]

Simple...

1.. What are the total fees charged to invest with you.. Both management fees and hidden fees buried within the fund.

2.. What has been the average annual returns over the last 30 years AFTER fees have been taken out.

Compare that to an S&P 500 ETF of a little over 10% per annum then be prepared to walk. !0 years of outsized returns is not enough of a track record.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Sorry XFB, but MikeBike hit the nail on the head already.  Like when you walk in to a bank's lobby - You want me to park money here, so why do you spend so much money on such nice furniture and flooring?  I'd be more interested to see a regular bank that gives me a dividend or extra fractional percent of yield on my deposits...

[Exflyboy]

Sorry XFB, but MikeBike hit the nail on the head already.  Like when you walk in to a bank's lobby - You want me to park money here, so why do you spend so much money on such nice furniture and flooring?  I'd be more interested to see a regular bank that gives me a dividend or extra fractional percent of yield on my deposits...

Well he's just smarter than me..:)

[londonbanker]

Be careful what you wish for.  There are secondary effects to major disruptions to the stock market.  People lose their homes.  People lose their jobs.  The spiral is downward.  It's just a stack of cards that a minor puff could topple.

Yes I hear that and not that I am hoping people lose their homes etc... but a 25% correction isn’t abnormal to be fair, it’s just that people have no memories of past events; they happen regularly and they are amazing opportunities to invest.

[Exflyboy]

Be careful what you wish for.  There are secondary effects to major disruptions to the stock market.  People lose their homes.  People lose their jobs.  The spiral is downward.  It's just a stack of cards that a minor puff could topple.

Yes I hear that and not that I am hoping people lose their homes etc... but a 25% correction isn’t abnormal to be fair, it’s just that people have no memories of past events; they happen regularly and they are amazing opportunities to invest.

^^^This!^^^

[londonbanker]

Post fees - 9% of fund managers consistently beat the market over a 5 year period, less than 4% over a 10years period and less than 1% beat it over a 20yrs period...
Not that it is down to luck necessarily, but ask yourself that question - is it your lucky day and is that guy in the magic 1% ?
I bet that if he was, he wouldn’t need to throw lavish parties to recruit clients to fund his lifestyle :-)

In any event, even if he was that 1% guy - I prefer the probability of being 99% right and investing on a passive ETF replicating the market, than putting it all on the “red” w a 1% chance to win.

And I would also sleep better at night !!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

So, in summary of the ongoing conversation, what pisses me off about people that get really rich, is how they get even richer by fleecing others.  Where does that 'enough' switch flip on for some and is just stuck in 'off' for others?  Because it actually gets easier, when you can throw a little money around, to suck in the suckers that want what you can easily afford.  You have confidence and nothing to lose, but they are practically salivating to get advice...

[londonbanker]

So, in summary of the ongoing conversation, what pisses me off about people that get really rich, is how they get even richer by fleecing others.  Where does that 'enough' switch flip on for some and is just stuck in 'off' for others?  Because it actually gets easier, when you can throw a little money around, to suck in the suckers that want what you can easily afford.  You have confidence and nothing to lose, but they are practically salivating to get advice...

I am sure you meant “some” people. Not all people who get rich fleece others

[bwall]

Today, I took their call and agreed to meet for coffee next week to be polite. They fed and watered my wife and I (loads of booze), so I will let them pitch to me as payment for an awesome night out.

I look forward to applying a bit of heat to their sales pitch next week when I meet them.

Give me a few questions I can ask to make them squirm a little...

I don’t want to disclose the fund, but at this stage there seems to be a lack of transparency with their investments.

Easy questions to lead in: Can they give you copies of their annual letter to investors for the past 3-5 years? And b/c the markets have been up since 2009 and these past letters will all be genuinely rosy, can they also provide the annual letter(s) for 2008 & 2009, for reference? If they existed back then, that is.

What about their exit strategy? Time horizon for their investments?

How do they avoid strategies like this?:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-got-rich-clients-015432893.html
TL:DR: Morgan Stanley got their uber wealthy clients into Uber at $48.77/per share, pre IPO. IPO'd at $45, closed today at $43 after going down to $37 or so last week.

What do they base their investment criteria on? Fancy resumes? Nice office space? Complicated sounding words? Something else?

And, if you're a closet leftist:
How do they give back to society?
How do they show their interest in 'the public good'?
Talk only about 'stakeholders' instead of 'shareholders'; stakeholders include all company employees, the community, environment, etc, not just those who own stock. They'll notice the difference in terminology.

[bwall]

BTW: I've never officially introduced myself to the group. I've been stalking for awhile, never wanted to post much or even out myself on a forum as being qualified as a member of this group.

It's been all so fast, still hasn't sunk in yet. But then, it might never ever sink in.

[Exflyboy]

BTW: I've never officially introduced myself to the group. I've been stalking for awhile, never wanted to post much or even out myself on a forum as being qualified as a member of this group.

It's been all so fast, still hasn't sunk in yet. But then, it might never ever sink in.

Welcome.. I've been here for a while and honestly its never sunk in for me.. I just look dispassionately at this insanely huge number and wonder who that $number really refers to.. Cus it CAN'T be me as I didn't do hardly anything for it.

But I guess thats the point right?..:)

[EscapeVelocity2020]

So, in summary of the ongoing conversation, what pisses me off about people that get really rich, is how they get even richer by fleecing others.  Where does that 'enough' switch flip on for some and is just stuck in 'off' for others?  Because it actually gets easier, when you can throw a little money around, to suck in the suckers that want what you can easily afford.  You have confidence and nothing to lose, but they are practically salivating to get advice...

I am sure you meant “some” people. Not all people who get rich fleece others

Yeah, just kind of a rant about the people moving up on the Forbes 500 list.  I'm certainly not talking about us little peons :)

[JoJoP]

BTW: I've never officially introduced myself to the group. I've been stalking for awhile, never wanted to post much or even out myself on a forum as being qualified as a member of this group.

It's been all so fast, still hasn't sunk in yet. But then, it might never ever sink in.

Welcome, Bwall.  We've got a fun group here.  No need to lurk- feel free to jump in anytime. 

[soccerluvof4]

Be careful what you wish for.  There are secondary effects to major disruptions to the stock market.  People lose their homes.  People lose their jobs.  The spiral is downward.  It's just a stack of cards that a minor puff could topple.

Yes I hear that and not that I am hoping people lose their homes etc... but a 25% correction isn’t abnormal to be fair, it’s just that people have no memories of past events; they happen regularly and they are amazing opportunities to invest.

^^^This!^^^

So True! 10 years into this we have a whole new group of investors. With all the homes going up and people buying trucks again like crazy despite fuel prices on the rise its like reliving that aspect of 2008,9. But there still seems to be plenty of strength to this market. I will be interested with the 3 day run back up if people take profits for the weekend or if it sits kind of idle. Political news can change all that but just fundamentally speaking idle or slightly up would be a good sign in my opinion. But again so much of this market is moving so much on Politcal yahoo.  Is what it is but there are moves to make no matter what she does.

[DavidAnnArbor]

Give me a few questions I can ask to make them squirm a little...

I'd want to know that the custodian of the account is separate from the equity manager. I'd be worried about a Ponzi scheme.

[itchyfeet]

Give me a few questions I can ask to make them squirm a little...

I'd want to know that the custodian of the account is separate from the equity manager. I'd be worried about a Ponzi scheme.

I’m not worried because I won’t be investing. I am perfectly happy with broad market ETFs. I don’t feel I need additional diversity through PE.... amd certainly not this particular fund.

But, I want to learn more so I will meet with them and grill them. For instance, their fund is based in A Caribbean tax haven. I imagine this comes with a lack of investor protections re: what they can say to investors and what they have to report. I’ll be keen to hear their side on this.

I am sure there is plenty to learn... maybe a little about Ferraris.

[ysette9]

Is this your idea of entertainment? I’m not sure why you are spending the time if you have no intention of investing.

[RWD]

Is this your idea of entertainment? I’m not sure why you are spending the time if you have no intention of investing.

^^^  Agreed. Why bother wasting the time of everyone involved?