Author Topic: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals  (Read 123151 times)

SwordGuy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #450 on: May 28, 2018, 01:09:40 PM »
Ran across this posting of mine on this thread from quite a few years back and thought I would give an update:

For me, net worth isn't a useful measurement for FI.  That's because I have no debt and don't intend on selling my house, cars, or other household furnishings.

So I'll focus on current assets that can be used to support FI.    I'll assume the market only keeps pace with inflation, i.e, no compounding, so I'll ignore earnings and just list amounts in current dollars.

2013: $580,000
2014: $665,000
2015: $750,000
2016: $835,000
2017: $920,000
2018: $977,000  Assumes wife retires at 70.
2019: $1,034,000
2020: $1,091,000  Assumes I retire at 63.

3.5% withdrawal rate = $38,185 income plus $14,400 wife's SS = $52,285 income.   I'll hold off on my SS until 70 because it will be a much higher than my wife's.  Obviously, if the market does much better than just keeping pace with inflation, I could move my retirement date foreward a couple of years.   If not, not.

For those of you who are younger and want to learn from my mistakes...

We could be retired right now if we had changed our behaviour 10 years ago.

We could have retired 10 or more years ago if we had changed our behavior back in 1988 when I got my first decent paying job.

Actuals:
2015: $1,050,000 we got into the rental property business before this date and the stock investments grew.
          That's 4 years ahead of our estimate!
2016: $1,900,000 regular gains and savings, plus an inheritance.

New estimates:
2017: $2,030,000
2018: $2,200,000 Assumes wife retires at 70, we finish the house we're slow-flipping, and I retire at 60, 2 years ahead of schedule.

We're at about $2,550,000 now.   Most of the difference is a spreadsheet mistake on my part, where I left off the value of our primary home in the total field.   The rest is 401K contributions, market growth, and the normal mortgage paydown.

It's enough.   Will deploy some capital to get a 2 to 4 rental properties over the next 3 to 5 years.  That's so we don't have to sell stock at all when the market is down.   

Definitely switching from acquisition mode to preservation mode now that we've retired.

Bro-mero

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #451 on: May 28, 2018, 10:14:29 PM »
My Long-Term Goal: Hit the $1M NW mark by Age 30

Just recently graduated undergrad and will be starting my full-time position in a couple months. I also turn 22 soon.

I was lucky enough to graduate without any student loan debt, so I will be starting on Day 1 with a NW of 0.

This is a pretty aggressive goal, but with some solid future bonuses/promotions/raises, nice market returns, and keeping my spending as low/optimized as possible, I'm excited to see how close to my goal I can get!
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 10:17:05 PM by Bro-mero »

tomsang

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #452 on: May 29, 2018, 10:25:01 AM »
Quote from: SwordGuy link=topic=7063.msg2020337#msg2020337

It's enough.   Will deploy some capital to get a 2 to 4 rental properties over the next 3 to 5 years.  That's so we don't have to sell stock at all when the market is down.   

During the recession some of our friends that own rentals got hit pretty hard with renters not paying rent, staying in the house until evicted, destroying the house on the way out, etc.  The stress of the recession had people doing crazy things to their rentals.  We had great luck with our rentals, but I don't count on it to cash flow well during another serious recession. 

One off stories are not great to base your plans. Is there better data out there on how rentals fare during recessions?  How did others with rentals do during the last recession?   


SwordGuy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #453 on: May 29, 2018, 03:24:52 PM »
Quote from: SwordGuy link=topic=7063.msg2020337#msg2020337

It's enough.   Will deploy some capital to get a 2 to 4 rental properties over the next 3 to 5 years.  That's so we don't have to sell stock at all when the market is down.   

During the recession some of our friends that own rentals got hit pretty hard with renters not paying rent, staying in the house until evicted, destroying the house on the way out, etc.  The stress of the recession had people doing crazy things to their rentals.  We had great luck with our rentals, but I don't count on it to cash flow well during another serious recession. 

One off stories are not great to base your plans. Is there better data out there on how rentals fare during recessions?  How did others with rentals do during the last recession?   
s

@tomsang ,

Those are all good points.

I live in a major military town.  We get big recessions when pretty much everyone gets shipped overseas to some God-forsaken country to get shot at.  Otherwise, it's pretty steady as she goes.

We have  a four legged stool for our income.   Rental income, Farm income, Social Security, and Stocks/Bonds.    Any one of them could completely disappear and we would have our planned expenses covered.    So I'm not too worried, because if I'm not pulling out stocks in all the good and so-so years, it's not such a big deal to pull out stocks in a bad year.  :)



Setake

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #454 on: May 29, 2018, 06:22:18 PM »
My Long-Term Goal: Hit the $1M NW mark by Age 30

Just recently graduated undergrad and will be starting my full-time position in a couple months. I also turn 22 soon.

I was lucky enough to graduate without any student loan debt, so I will be starting on Day 1 with a NW of 0.

This is a pretty aggressive goal, but with some solid future bonuses/promotions/raises, nice market returns, and keeping my spending as low/optimized as possible, I'm excited to see how close to my goal I can get!

This is also my goal! I am at 27 with 200k and my salary is not nearly enough to reach it. I am hoping the stars align and somehow present me with 800k in the next 3 years (LOL). In reality I will probably have to go until I am 35. Darn! Shoot for the stars and end up in space I guess..

Bro-mero

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #455 on: May 29, 2018, 07:59:49 PM »
My Long-Term Goal: Hit the $1M NW mark by Age 30

Just recently graduated undergrad and will be starting my full-time position in a couple months. I also turn 22 soon.

I was lucky enough to graduate without any student loan debt, so I will be starting on Day 1 with a NW of 0.

This is a pretty aggressive goal, but with some solid future bonuses/promotions/raises, nice market returns, and keeping my spending as low/optimized as possible, I'm excited to see how close to my goal I can get!

This is also my goal! I am at 27 with 200k and my salary is not nearly enough to reach it. I am hoping the stars align and somehow present me with 800k in the next 3 years (LOL). In reality I will probably have to go until I am 35. Darn! Shoot for the stars and end up in space I guess..

Always good to have a somewhat lofty goal, and then even if you don't quite get there, you still make some damn good progress! 200K at age 27 is really good already! Keep fighting the good fight

skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #456 on: June 02, 2018, 02:44:51 AM »
My Long-Term Goal: Hit the $1M NW mark by Age 30

Just recently graduated undergrad and will be starting my full-time position in a couple months. I also turn 22 soon.

I was lucky enough to graduate without any student loan debt, so I will be starting on Day 1 with a NW of 0.

This is a pretty aggressive goal, but with some solid future bonuses/promotions/raises, nice market returns, and keeping my spending as low/optimized as possible, I'm excited to see how close to my goal I can get!

You need to stache about $75k YOY minimum.  Probably a bit more.
Totally possible I guess depends on your income and outgoings I guess.

I am aiming for similar goal by 42.  I started about 32 ish so about 10 years time frame.  I am currently at 500k. 
 

Slow&Steady

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #457 on: June 06, 2018, 03:06:16 PM »
I want to join but I will just be doing investments, true NW is too much guessing and calculations!  I am going to do year end goals starting from Jan 2017. 

Our 2nd (last) baby is due in March 18, so she should finish high school in 2035 or 2036.  I would like to retire when she graduates (@52/53) or a couple years after (@55).  I know it is not really RE but I think it will be early enough for me and with DH's medical concerns it might still be too early, depending on what happens to health insurance.

Dec-17: $90K
Dec-18: $110K
Dec-19: $140K
Dec-20: $200K
Dec-25: $400K

Who freaking knows what will happen in 10+ years but why not give it is shot.
Dec-30: $900K
Dec-35: $1.5M
Dec-38: $2M

Revised 2018 and beyond goals and used ranges, lower end seems pretty likely with the upper end being a stretch. 

End of Year: Goal / Actual
Dec-17: $90K / $97,451
Dec-18: $115K-$120K
Dec-19: $140K-$175K
Dec-20: $200K-$250K
Dec-25: $400K-$500K

Mid 2018 update: Calculations show that if we have a flat rest of the year I should be right around $118k.  I will admit that I made these guesses before I got a new job with a 30(ish)% raise and assuming DH's business would be about equal to 2017.  In the 1st 5 months of 2018 he has made almost 80% of what he made in all 12 months of 2017, hopefully he will be able to keep up that pace the rest of the year!

NinetyFour

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #458 on: June 06, 2018, 05:01:46 PM »
These are guesses, but here goes:

NW July 2014:  $404,000
NW July 2015:  $465,000
NW July 2016:  $535,000
NW July 2017:  $615,000
NW July 2018:  $705,000
NW July 2019:  $805,000

I am confident of only the 1st number.  :)

As of tonight, my NW is $473,000, so I have surpassed my goal/guess for July 2015.  I will come back and post revised guesses for future NW values.

I'm not sure where I came up with those previous goals.  Here is my current prediction:

Current NW:  $480,507
January 2016: $570,000
January 2017: $670,000
January 2018: $779,000
July 2018:  $840,000 (and hopefully retirement, as I will hopefully have over $523K free and clear)

Well, I missed my January 2016 prediction, as my NW now stands at $528,717.  Boo.  I think I must tamp down the rest of the predictions as well.  Here is now what my crystal ball tells me:

Jan 2016:  $528,717
Jan 2017:  $630,306
Jan 2018:  $722,663
July 2018:  $784,925 (still when I hope to retire)

I am currently at $612K.  Should be able to reach $630K well before January 2017.

My NW (including house) is now $742,946.  On track to hit my (original) goal of $840K in July 2018, when I will retire.  It's beginning to feel real...and scary...

Now at $803,225...

Ending 2017 at $828,383.  Really hoping to join the double comma club next year, but trying not to get my hopes up.

I have smashed every previous goal I set up there ^^^, so maybe there's a chance.  Or, maybe I'm just kind of bad at predictions.  ;-)

Now, with just about one more month of income left before the firehose of cash is turned off, I have $545K free and clear, and my NW is $918K.  Part of the NW growth is due to an adjustment to the value of my house (increased $14K).

Shooting for $600K free and clear and a NW figure with two commas in it.  :)

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #459 on: June 06, 2018, 07:28:06 PM »
My new long term net worth goal is $0.....that's right $0