Author Topic: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals  (Read 88841 times)

beege

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #400 on: June 19, 2017, 05:43:54 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug
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arebelspy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #401 on: June 19, 2017, 05:52:08 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Haha, yeah. I passed my three year "stretch goal" in one year.

Underestimating stache growth (especially when you think you'll be OVERestimating it) is a great feeling.

Quote
Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug

There will definitely be a crash at some point. Who knows when.  :)
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Zaga

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #402 on: June 19, 2017, 06:39:47 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Haha, yeah. I passed my three year "stretch goal" in one year.

Underestimating stache growth (especially when you think you'll be OVERestimating it) is a great feeling.

Quote
Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug

There will definitely be a crash at some point. Who knows when.  :)
Well *I'm* certainly not going to try and guess!

FrugalFisherman10

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #403 on: June 21, 2017, 01:33:34 PM »
Ok I want to get in on this too. ARS I like how you laid out the 'goal/underrun format' I'll call it.

I would like to have $1mil Net Worth by age 40.

I'm about to turn 27, so that means I have 13 years to go.
I am at $100k right now, so that means I have $900k to go.
That means I need to increase my NW by $70k per year.

Currently I make around $75k
after tax around $66k-68k
I spend around $25-30k
So I should be increasing my net worth based on savings alone by $36 - 42k per year (assuming no market dips -not a safe assumption)

That's a $28k per year gap at the low end, and $44k gap at the high end.

When put this way, the gap seems huge. I feel like I'm doing pretty good, but in reality, I have a substantial gap to make up each year..with no immediate prospects of how to do it (i.e. I don't own a bunch of rentals, am not trying to skim money through options, but am considering all the above. Also I could just wait till my salary increases and it will probably get a lot easier to close the gap around 35 haha)

Now this assumes:
1) no salary increases - unlikely assumption
2) no market returns - unlikely assumption
3) no change in spending - unlikely assumption (currently I'm single, and doubt that whoever I find to marry can live off of $0 dollars. but at that point the goal posts will likely change anyway. I've picked the $1mil number because it relates to $40k of annual spend, so there is room for increased spending if you look at it that way.)

anyway, it's good to put it out there. And to start thinking about how I can make up that $28k per year gap.

webguy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #404 on: July 03, 2017, 09:27:13 PM »
I want to join in and set myself some public goals so that I'm held accountable.  My goals are:

Current NW:  $420k
Jan 1 2016:  $650k
Jan 1 2017:  $950k
Jan 1 2018:  $1.1M

I need to update my goals!

Current NW:  $1.1M
Jan 1 2017:  $1.25M
Jan 1 2018:  $1.6M
Jan 1 2019:  $2M

Jan 1 2017:  $1.26M

Phew, just made it! I have no idea how 2017 is going to go income-wise, so I'm sticking with my $1.6M goal for now and I'll revisit in 6 months...

Another 6 months have gone by so I'm revisiting to update the goals a little bit..

Current NW:  $1.535M
Jan 1 2018:  $1.75M
Jan 1 2019:  $2.2M

Dicey

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #405 on: July 04, 2017, 08:00:11 AM »
Ok I want to get in on this too. ARS I like how you laid out the 'goal/underrun format' I'll call it.

I would like to have $1mil Net Worth by age 40.

I'm about to turn 27, so that means I have 13 years to go.
I am at $100k right now, so that means I have $900k to go.
That means I need to increase my NW by $70k per year.

Currently I make around $75k
after tax around $66k-68k
I spend around $25-30k
So I should be increasing my net worth based on savings alone by $36 - 42k per year (assuming no market dips -not a safe assumption)

That's a $28k per year gap at the low end, and $44k gap at the high end.

When put this way, the gap seems huge. I feel like I'm doing pretty good, but in reality, I have a substantial gap to make up each year..with no immediate prospects of how to do it (i.e. I don't own a bunch of rentals, am not trying to skim money through options, but am considering all the above. Also I could just wait till my salary increases and it will probably get a lot easier to close the gap around 35 haha)

Now this assumes:
1) no salary increases - unlikely assumption
2) no market returns - unlikely assumption
3) no change in spending - unlikely assumption (currently I'm single, and doubt that whoever I find to marry can live off of $0 dollars. but at that point the goal posts will likely change anyway. I've picked the $1mil number because it relates to $40k of annual spend, so there is room for increased spending if you look at it that way.)

anyway, it's good to put it out there. And to start thinking about how I can make up that $28k per year gap.
That's the beauty of compound interest. It  will do the heavy lifting for you. Keep doing what you're doing and eventually your investments will out earn you. The "gap" will take care of itself. You're off to an excellent start,
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skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #406 on: July 11, 2017, 01:33:34 PM »
Revised our plans over the last 6 months and also added some growth.  All my previous numbers have been based on 0% (i.e tracking inflation).  Now I am using 2% (over inflation).

This has taken some years off our FIRE date. 

I think we could hit 1M in 2025.  Previously I thought 2030.

Then the second part of this analysis that we did was do we *really* need 1M.  The answer is probably not, so we may be FI around 2022/3.  If we could RE in 2023 we would be really happy, but might do a couple more years and work down over that time.


SwordGuy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #407 on: July 12, 2017, 05:38:50 AM »
Ran across this posting of mine on this thread from quite a few years back and thought I would give an update:

For me, net worth isn't a useful measurement for FI.  That's because I have no debt and don't intend on selling my house, cars, or other household furnishings.

So I'll focus on current assets that can be used to support FI.    I'll assume the market only keeps pace with inflation, i.e, no compounding, so I'll ignore earnings and just list amounts in current dollars.

2013: $580,000
2014: $665,000
2015: $750,000
2016: $835,000
2017: $920,000
2018: $977,000  Assumes wife retires at 70.
2019: $1,034,000
2020: $1,091,000  Assumes I retire at 63.

3.5% withdrawal rate = $38,185 income plus $14,400 wife's SS = $52,285 income.   I'll hold off on my SS until 70 because it will be a much higher than my wife's.  Obviously, if the market does much better than just keeping pace with inflation, I could move my retirement date foreward a couple of years.   If not, not.

For those of you who are younger and want to learn from my mistakes...

We could be retired right now if we had changed our behaviour 10 years ago.

We could have retired 10 or more years ago if we had changed our behavior back in 1988 when I got my first decent paying job.

Actuals:
2015: $1,050,000 we got into the rental property business before this date and the stock investments grew.
          That's 4 years ahead of our estimate!
2016: $1,900,000 regular gains and savings, plus an inheritance.

New estimates:
2017: $2,030,000
2018: $2,200,000 Assumes wife retires at 70, we finish the house we're slow-flipping, and I retire at 60, 2 years ahead of schedule.

Goldy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #408 on: July 12, 2017, 11:17:47 AM »
I'll play

Current NW $1.4

2008  $50,000
2013  $632,000
2014  $859,000
2015  $924,000
2016  $1,229,000

Goals
2017  $1,500,000
2018  $1,750,000  FI
2019  $2,000,000
2020  $2,300,000  FIRE?
2021  $2,600,000
2022  $2,900,000


chaskavitch

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #409 on: July 12, 2017, 01:49:43 PM »
I have a giant spreadsheet of theoretical future salary increases and retirement account goals already, but I update the values to reflect actual account values at the end of the year, so I don't have a record of what I thought we would have anymore. 

These projected values are a little above what I've calculated with contribution increases and market returns, but I may as well be optimistic :)  I am being incredibly conservative about the increases in NW above and beyond retirement accounts, so it gets a little hand-wavey there anyhow.

Assumptions:
3% salary increase/yr, no bonuses, no promotions
6% market increase/yr
3% yearly contribution increase to 401k, until contribution max is hit

Current NW (including recent tax appraisal house value and mortgage): $272,573
Current retirement account totals: $114,000

End of year NW/retirement goals:
2017: $300,000/$145,000
2018: $355,000/$195,000
2019: $420,000/$250,000
2020: $500,000/$325,000
2021: $575,000/$385,000
2022: $650,000/$475,000

DH wants to retire by 2027 when he turns 40, and according to my projections we'll have almost $1 million in retirement accounts alone by then.  He thinks we'll need $2-$3 million, so with these goals we'll have to step it up a lot to get there. 

We'd also like to buy a house with more property and further out of town, and either rent this one out or sell it, so we're (very slowly) saving toward a down payment for that.

facepalm

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #410 on: July 16, 2017, 10:57:56 AM »
Goals:

Dec-17 300,000
Jun-19 400,000
Dec-21 500,000
Just checked Personal Capital, and I'm sitting at 273,600. I'll be at 280K August 31, so I will definitely make my 300K goal by the end of the year. I still think 200K in two more years is doable, especially since I'll be able to contribute 36K to my 457b (special catch-up) in the second year.

I just found out that my last check did not have my 403b and 457b contributions taken out, nor did I make a contribution to my pension. IRS rules for teachers now require that I pay my taxes upfront on my final summer check--so my July check is just a lump sum with no deductions. Curses! So I have to modify my contributions to make sure I put 24K into each of my retirement accounts. That will cut my check to nothing, but at least it will mean paying no taxes! I have money saved so can draw from savings if need be.


There will definitely be a crash buying opportunity at some point. Who knows when.  :)

Fixed it for ya. :-}
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 11:10:59 AM by facepalm »

NinetyFour

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #411 on: July 18, 2017, 08:24:42 AM »
These are guesses, but here goes:

NW July 2014:  $404,000
NW July 2015:  $465,000
NW July 2016:  $535,000
NW July 2017:  $615,000
NW July 2018:  $705,000
NW July 2019:  $805,000

I am confident of only the 1st number.  :)

As of tonight, my NW is $473,000, so I have surpassed my goal/guess for July 2015.  I will come back and post revised guesses for future NW values.

I'm not sure where I came up with those previous goals.  Here is my current prediction:

Current NW:  $480,507
January 2016: $570,000
January 2017: $670,000
January 2018: $779,000
July 2018:  $840,000 (and hopefully retirement, as I will hopefully have over $523K free and clear)

Well, I missed my January 2016 prediction, as my NW now stands at $528,717.  Boo.  I think I must tamp down the rest of the predictions as well.  Here is now what my crystal ball tells me:

Jan 2016:  $528,717
Jan 2017:  $630,306
Jan 2018:  $722,663
July 2018:  $784,925 (still when I hope to retire)

I am currently at $612K.  Should be able to reach $630K well before January 2017.

My NW (including house) is now $742,946.  On track to hit my (original) goal of $840K in July 2018, when I will retire.  It's beginning to feel real...and scary...
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