Does anyone have an opinion on where future federal tax rates are headed? It's kind of safe to say that they will be higher in the future than they are now based on the debt/deficit, but exactly when and by how much is the real question. I figure there are probably some in the FIRE camp who have tried to guess at this, since it impacts future budgeting.
Not looking to debate pros and cons of what I believe should happen, just looking for opinions on what others feel is likely to happen, and what that will mean for future taxes.
My own opinion is that two events might trigger this. One is if the Democrats gain control of government (could be as soon as 2021, or a few elections later, too soon to tell), there will be a somewhat modest increase to personal income tax brackets. Higher if this coincides with some sort of enlargement of entitlements - several possibilities have been proposed by current candidates. New tax brackets would be in line with 90s era taxes (or more if entitlements are expanded). The other trigger would be if long term interest rates rise dramatically, raising federal debt financing costs. This could mean a more severe tax increase. This would be more painful, more in the neighborhood of 50% increase. This might take 10+ years to come about, if nothing is done to change the current trajectory.
I expect the brackets will remain progressive either way.