Author Topic: Inequality is killing our economies  (Read 6096 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #50 on: October 06, 2022, 01:27:57 PM »
The salaries of politicians don't increase when they collect more taxes, the budgets for government projects do.
 Innovation occurs directly through a great many government policy choices.

Every poor person who gets grants that allow him/her to attend university is an extra chance at developing more innovation.  Every person who has their education paid for by taxes increase the odds that a truly innovative idea will be developed.  Small business grants and loans, tech grants and loans, green energy initiatives all help too.  Then you have infrastructure that helps innovation take hold - like providing high speed internet across the country and similar.  Then you have targeted investments in innovation - DARPA, the NIH, In-Q-Tel . . . all huge players in increasing US innovation.

chemistk

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #51 on: October 06, 2022, 01:30:43 PM »
I can't remember where, maybe it was on these forums, but the most succinct reason I've heard for paying the C-Suite such high salaries is that generally speaking, these positions are ones which are both demanding and risky. Failures within the company can and sometimes do lead to civil or criminal consequences for its leadership. Companies, tech giants notwithstanding, tend to hold onto the C-Suite for only so long before those people are done with the job.

But to be honest, that's entirely moot. As it's been pointed out time and again, wealth redistribution for its own sake isn't going to lift millions out of near poverty.

In the most recent freakonomics podcast episode (517), Dubner made a very astute observation - that economics and economists are generally so salient because they work on societal problems that are most frequently politically 'solved'. I'm not saying that's entirely true, and I don't think anyone else should see that as entirely true, but it brings up a very important point - that studies, charts, and comparisons can only go so far to smooth over the underlying facts that systemic inequality is ignored and punted and dodged because nobody wants to face facts that people in this country and in the world are born and die in poverty for reasons that are frequently not their fault and which don't have solutions that are readily actionable.

One of the biggest roadblocks to addressing inequality is occurring right in front of us, in real time: capital is the best way to acquire more capital. Corporations grow to satisfy the aims of their shareholders, investors, or both. Innovation occurs almost exclusively with the express purpose to extract more capital on the backs of the purchasers within the consumer class. As elementary as it is to point out, those investors just as much as the majority of all society want to amass more capital than those around them, and will be wont to do so until the day they die.

As the chasm grows - investors getting ever richer, corporations forever consolidating, diversity of business models collapsing into a monolithic profit extracting machine, those who don't have lots of capital have to work harder and harder for capital that is yet available. Even if the pie continues to grow, it also continues to shrink. All the societal streamlining to make schools and manufacturing and restaurants and media more efficient means there are fewer opportunities for people to amass capital and instead they are forced to take on debt.

We are not taught in school, in media, or in general culture that you don't have to participate in the rat race. And in fact, the race itself is currently plenty powerful to convince people that they aren't anyone or anything if they aren't keeping up with everyone else.

A super high marginal tax rate won't fix that, nor will the myriad loopholes that the wealthy use to shield their wealth because there are forever places to escape with it and people who are more than eager to protect it if it means they get to live in the general vicinity of wealth.

I go back to the author from the OP, and will point out again the quote I pulled out:

Quote
More seriously, Stevenson says tackling inequality should be a priority for the government. “The policy which I campaign for mainly is a wealth tax, because I think it’s the most realisable,” he says. “But there’s other ways too, including limits on the length of time people can hold on to wealth.”

He proposes that if wealthy people had to spend a proportion of their money within a certain period, it would boost the real economy and help with the cost of living crisis.

Before I even say anything I recognize that it wouldn't work in such a simplistic sense. but the spirit of the proposition is interesting to consider. Instead of dismantling the consumeristic "buy more, have more, need more" mantra that much of Western society is not operating around, why not force those individuals to cash out periodically?


Morning Glory

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #52 on: October 06, 2022, 01:39:35 PM »
I can't remember where, maybe it was on these forums, but the most succinct reason I've heard for paying the C-Suite such high salaries is that generally speaking, these positions are ones which are both demanding and risky. Failures within the company can and sometimes do lead to civil or criminal consequences for its leadership. Companies, tech giants notwithstanding, tend to hold onto the C-Suite for only so long before those people are done with the job.


This reason is complete horseshit. There are plenty of non executive jobs where failure can lead to civil or criminal charges or even death. Under this logic the salary should be just as high for police officers,  truck drivers,  nurses, airline pilots,  contractors,  farmers, military people, etc etc etc
« Last Edit: October 06, 2022, 01:49:36 PM by Morning Glory »

SeattleCPA

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #53 on: October 06, 2022, 01:54:12 PM »
I read high individual marginal rates as removing the incentive for companies to pay the obscene  compensation, so the money stays in the company and gets spent on innovation there. Not that innovation occurs through some government program funded by taxes paid through high individual rates.

Yep, that's what I meant. Maybe they choose to give the janitors a bonus, or do more R&D, or build a new cafeteria,  instead of paying the executives so much and letting congress redistribute the wealth.  It still gets spread out more than it is now.

Okay, good to clarify.

BTW as someone who lives in Seattle and provides tax planning services to many, many technology workers, their shares of the compensation pie are often very large.

My sense is this. A tech company will pay an innovator a very high income.

GuitarStv

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #54 on: October 06, 2022, 01:58:52 PM »
I read high individual marginal rates as removing the incentive for companies to pay the obscene  compensation, so the money stays in the company and gets spent on innovation there. Not that innovation occurs through some government program funded by taxes paid through high individual rates.

Yep, that's what I meant. Maybe they choose to give the janitors a bonus, or do more R&D, or build a new cafeteria,  instead of paying the executives so much and letting congress redistribute the wealth.  It still gets spread out more than it is now.

Okay, good to clarify.

BTW as someone who lives in Seattle and provides tax planning services to many, many technology workers, their shares of the compensation pie are often very large.

My sense is this. A tech company will pay an innovator a very high income.

I've worked in engineering my whole life for tech companies.  Right now, I'm working at a company with several people who have patents for things that they've developed that have become commonly used in television broadcast.  None of them get paid anywhere near as much as the C suite folks.

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #55 on: October 06, 2022, 03:51:32 PM »
Wealth inequality is not a problem.
It's a propaganda term, nothing more.

In a nutshell you're asked to believe that having a toilet in your house is amazing, until someone has 100 toilets in their house, at which point it's now a social crisis that needs government to step in and take at least 50 of those toilets.

capital is the best way to acquire more capital.

Everyone has human capital ( themselves ) to start accumulating other types of capital ( like tools, sandwiches and money ).

the consumer class.

Everyone is a consumer.
This is not a class.


 Even if the pie continues to grow, it also continues to shrink.

Companies will get ever-richer by selling products to people with no money? whu
Then they'll also get rich by creating debt in the name of people with no ability to repay it?

The only actual entity that binds people into debt slavery are states, since they can force citizens to repay the state's debt.



He proposes that if wealthy people had to spend a proportion of their money within a certain period, it would boost the real economy and help with the cost of living crisis.

[/quote]

That's just forcing bad allocation of capital.

Media and politicians keep circulating this notion that velocity of money = wealth.

But of course that makes no sense. They say things like "tax the rich and give to the poor, because the poor will spend it, so we'll get richer!".

This is basically like saying you stole 20$ from my till and then used it to buy 20$ worth of food at my bakery, therefore helping me!
Of course this is a transfer of wealth, not an increase.

This also has another name: The Broken Window Fallacy, i.e. the logic that if I smash your window and force you to replace it, that's good, because I generated economic activity.

People don't understand what rich people do with money ( they invest it ) and don't understand that hoarding money doesn't "hurt the economy" it hurts THE MONEY HOARDER.

And all of this stems pretty much from jealousy/greed and people's gut feeling that whoever has the most resources should be the one solving the problems. So at the end of the day "income inequality" is pretty much about nothing more then people's primitive fairness trigger whereby if a guy is sitting on a pile of bananas, for whatever reason, he should be the one helping out the guy who's banana supply was just eaten by racoons last night.

So when people see suffering on TV and then see Bill Gate's wealth number, they immediately feel outrage and then go to the only solution they know: Government force.
If he won't hand out bananas willingly, WE'LL FUCKING MAKE HIM.

The rest of all of this is just people trying to cloak this in some kind of grand moral legitimacy, like Obama's "You didn't build that" horseshit to pretend like, really, we aren't "stealing" from Bill Gate's banana supply, those were "our bananas" all along, actually.

SeattleCPA

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #56 on: October 06, 2022, 06:06:45 PM »
I've worked in engineering my whole life for tech companies.  Right now, I'm working at a company with several people who have patents for things that they've developed that have become commonly used in television broadcast.  None of them get paid anywhere near as much as the C suite folks.

We do tax work for executives and lots of really talented technical folks. And maybe this is the difference between tech in Seattle and tech in Toronto... but that is not my observation. And I'm signing tax returns.

BTW, and this next comment doesn't even conflict with your point or undermine your argument, but the real money is not in the C suite of big public corporations or even in W-2 incomes of employees working at the top tier tech companies. It's the pass-through entities. At least here in the U.S.

Source: That "Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century" paper I cited earlier.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2022, 06:12:05 PM by SeattleCPA »

Paul der Krake

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #57 on: October 06, 2022, 06:31:47 PM »
I've worked in engineering my whole life for tech companies.  Right now, I'm working at a company with several people who have patents for things that they've developed that have become commonly used in television broadcast.  None of them get paid anywhere near as much as the C suite folks.

We do tax work for executives and lots of really talented technical folks. And maybe this is the difference between tech in Seattle and tech in Toronto... but that is not my observation. And I'm signing tax returns.

BTW, and this next comment doesn't even conflict with your point or undermine your argument, but the real money is not in the C suite of big public corporations or even in W-2 incomes of employees working at the top tier tech companies. It's the pass-through entities. At least here in the U.S.

Source: That "Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century" paper I cited earlier.
Tech comps in Canada were a complete joke until very recently, and even today it's still severely lagging behind the US despite every Canadian living with 20 miles of the border.

Vancouver and Seattle are just as expensive, but one pays twice as much, and this is true pretty much at all company tiers. It's the holding cell for international hires who didn't win the H-1B lottery.

There's a reason every University of Waterloo (the best CS program across the Maple Falls) worth their salt moves South immediately after graduation to get a 200k/year starting comp. The people who remain are those who either:
1) aren't eligible for TN visas, or,
2) convince themselves that the better welfare state or proximity to family is worth losing out on millions of dollars of lifetime earnings

chemistk

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #58 on: October 07, 2022, 06:46:30 AM »
Wealth inequality is not a problem.
It's a propaganda term, nothing more.

I articulated my argument poorly, because I hammered it out at the end of my workday yesterday.

I agree that much of this social-level conversation is propaganda. In a vacuum under ideal conditions, the rational person will recognize that as a society, we are constantly being marketed to and that our perception of many of our "needs" is no more than induced demand. What we actually need, as individuals, is far far more basic than what we are perceiving. Nobody who is here in this forum should dispute that.

Mine is a much murkier perspective - a philosophical and moral one. My question and my concern is 'should society be comfortable with a system that builds a class of oligarchs, allows "them" (an ambiguous, undefined "them") to influence the lives of every individual in varying degrees, convincing the bottom 70% to keep working harder to attain that next level of social status?'

Call me naive, call me dumb, shortsighted, anti-capitalist, whatever you want to call me. I play the game as much as anyone else, I'm not crucifying myself to make some moral point. i have a house, 2 cars, 3 kids, and plenty of consumer stuff. I work for a company that provides a questionable benefit to society within the terms of this argument I'm framing.

What Bezos, Musk, Gates, Branson, Buffet, Ma, Clooney, Pitt, Lennon, etc. etc. etc. have earned is all rightfully theirs. They are each successful for the things they have done and the risks they've taken. But the rest of us (in Western economies) are born, live, and die under the guise that we have every opportunity to be just like them. The same thing goes for the hundreds of thousands of CEO's and C-suite leaders, that if you just work hard enough you can be just like them.

You and I might not view that with the same saliency, but the majority of the population does. We are all marketed to, and we all succumb to that marketing. Who we are is inexorably tied to the environment we grow up in, and environment we choose to occupy. Unless you cut yourself off from society you can't not be susceptible to marketing.

Everyone has human capital ( themselves ) to start accumulating other types of capital ( like tools, sandwiches and money ).

But at the end of your life, how much farther did you make it? Did you and your family attain a higher social status relative to the rest of the population than where you started? Did you at least die at parity?

When quarterly earnings underperform for a couple cycles, when profits trend down, when COGS rises without any good way to tamp them back down what suffers? Who suffers?

When a restaurant sees falling profits and lower foot traffic, who's the most vulnerable in that organization?

When a bank branch closes, who has the biggest challenge in regaining a place in society?

Most people in these forums should be just fine if we're out a job or if the markets dip or if we have an unexpected health crisis or if our GDP falls. And we snicker and bemoan the rest of society that can't handle an unexpected expense without taking on debt or skipping healthcare or selling their house. How many people do you interact with on a daily basis who are comfortable and content with where they are in life? How many people do you know are working for the thrill of the job? Or are they working because if they don't, their lifestyle falls apart?

Those same 'unmustachians' who buy McMansions and SUV's and $1400 phones are the "consumer class" I was talking about, and I should edit that to say "blind consumer class", because they're playing the game - a game where they believe themselves to be the player not the pawn.

When the company they work for decides to have a round of layoffs, and their position is lost, does that make them (on the whole and not trying to paint a portrait of some idealized individual) better off?

When Bezos or Musk announces that in order to remain profitable or to improve margins or whatever a round of layoffs is necessary, do those people who probably are pouring more than 40 hours a week into those jobs suddenly find themselves happier? More content? Those setbacks have just gotta be little speedbumps. They'll lick their wounds and realize where they went wrong. It just HAD to be that degree, or that certification - next time I'll get em! Or maybe their mistake was getting that job in that part of the organization. Next time they'll be sure to avoid that job!

When Yum! brands sees falling profits due to lower foot traffic because you, me, and they know that the stores they operate are ostensibly making our population live shorter lives, they are probably going to close a few stores. They, and the leadership-level org chart gets to keep their jobs. The store owners/managers are probably offered relocation packages. And he rest of the people who depended on income from those locations? I'm sure it's better for them in the end. I'm sure it makes them more resilient, more agile, more intelligent. They learned from their mistakes, right?

We (again, maybe people who are frugal and who work toward FI are mostly immune, so the collective 'we') are sold the idea that if you work hard and are mindful of what you spend, that you can end up higher on the social ladder than where you started. Or if not you, certainly your kids/grandkids. And in just a few generations your family will be wealthy! And in one year of that time, the wealthiest individuals might earn more taking a dump than you'll earn in a year. And that crap-covered pile of cash can just sit in a pile and earn more.

We listen to our (often wealthier) bosses, to VP's and CFO's, to career politicians and industry moguls talk about all the great things that they're doing for the rest of everyone else. In fact, most people spend their whole lives as line cooks, equipment mechanics, HR specialists, clerks, 1B accountants, contract maintenance listening to the people above them talking as if they are talking to the rest of us, for our benefit. Most of those people doing their absolute best to use the human capital they have to contribute to organizations and to owners and to leaders  so that they at the very least can maintain an acceptable standard of living.

And then when the hammer falls, all that human capital is worth something, right? They can just jump back in it at the next opportunity, right? The profit motive, the same directive that cost them their jobs (deserved or undeserved), works in their favor....it's just go to.

Maybe I'll go out tonight and smash some windows in my neighborhood. They can't be that difficult to replace for most folks and it sure would benefit the very narrow segment of our economy that manufactures and installs those windows.

I'm not fighting against those who earned what they have, I'm fighting the idea that we have to keep the profit train moving in perpetuity at the ever increasing expense of those who shovel the coal and fire the tender. One day the profit directive will replace those roles with an automated device, and throw overboard the people who got the whole thing to that point. We'll nickname it 'innovation' and feel some pity for those on the side of the tracks. The last ones to be tossed off will hurt the most - the folks who built the coal-to-tender conveyer themselves. Maybe they'll get an extra few pieces of coal to fire their houses for the week.

Because I want to be clear - at what point do we recognize the title of this thread - "Inequality is killing our economies"? If you have a better background in economics, enlighten me. I'd like to think I know the fundamentals, but we'll be at 10B people in a few decades, and instead of recognizing that each of us gets to have one shot at our ride around the sun we keep telling ourselves that only a few (and we, you and me and the rest of us are the few) get the good fortune to have that be an enjoyable experience. While the messaging to everyone remains "keep feeding us your income, and then your life so that we can maintain an ever-increasing standard of living".

Because I want to be crystal clear - capitalism is the only thing that got us as a society to where we are now. And we, the haves, seem to want to die on the hill of the belief that we must have more than before instead of having enough.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 06:55:17 AM by chemistk »

SeattleCPA

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #59 on: October 07, 2022, 06:48:50 AM »
I've worked in engineering my whole life for tech companies.  Right now, I'm working at a company with several people who have patents for things that they've developed that have become commonly used in television broadcast.  None of them get paid anywhere near as much as the C suite folks.

We do tax work for executives and lots of really talented technical folks. And maybe this is the difference between tech in Seattle and tech in Toronto... but that is not my observation. And I'm signing tax returns.

BTW, and this next comment doesn't even conflict with your point or undermine your argument, but the real money is not in the C suite of big public corporations or even in W-2 incomes of employees working at the top tier tech companies. It's the pass-through entities. At least here in the U.S.

Source: That "Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century" paper I cited earlier.
Tech comps in Canada were a complete joke until very recently, and even today it's still severely lagging behind the US despite every Canadian living with 20 miles of the border.

Vancouver and Seattle are just as expensive, but one pays twice as much, and this is true pretty much at all company tiers. It's the holding cell for international hires who didn't win the H-1B lottery.

There's a reason every University of Waterloo (the best CS program across the Maple Falls) worth their salt moves South immediately after graduation to get a 200k/year starting comp. The people who remain are those who either:
1) aren't eligible for TN visas, or,
2) convince themselves that the better welfare state or proximity to family is worth losing out on millions of dollars of lifetime earnings

I don't have any real data to back up this statement, only the anecdotal musing of accountants in a reddit subforum, but my sense is, accountants in Canada also often earn less than their cousins next door.

Accounting pays nothing like technology--though salaries have moved up maybe 30 percent in the last year or two--but a US accountant my guess probably makes hundreds of thousands more over her or his working years more than a similarly skilled Canadian accountant.

The one big wrinkle: If you're in a high cost of living area, that extra income gets eaten up. E.g., NYC, San Francisco, Seattle. But Vancouver is super high cost of living, too, right?

Suffice to say, it's pretty tricky to optimize.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 06:52:11 AM by SeattleCPA »

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #60 on: October 07, 2022, 07:01:28 AM »
What Bezos, Musk, Gates, Branson, Buffet, Ma, Clooney, Pitt, Lennon, etc. etc. etc. have earned is all rightfully theirs. They are each successful for the things they have done and the risks they've taken.

Can I offer an alternative explanation? What if they've just been lucky.

BTW I'm not saying they aren't smart. But I'd suggest they've mostly been lucky.

In the US, you've got 50,000 new businesses started each month. Occasionally, one of those businesses enjoys years or sometimes decades of spectacular growth. And then you have another billionaire. Or cenitmillionaire.

Quote
But the rest of us (in Western economies) are born, live, and die under the guise that we have every opportunity to be just like them. The same thing goes for the hundreds of thousands of CEO's and C-suite leaders, that if you just work hard enough you can be just like them.

Hard work, I'd guess we all agree, contributes a little bit to success.

I was surprised when I stumbled on research a while back that showed iQ added very, very little to your income and almost nothing to your wealth. E.g., each IQ point adds I think $200 to $600 to your income. So if you're 30 points above the median, two standard deviations, you're looking at an extra $6K to $18K a year.

But mostly what you or I need is good luck.

A postscript: Some here know I've written a lot of books. No kidding, it's something like 200 titles. In English, those titles have sold like 5,000,000 copies. Almost all about technology. But the books were sold through the trade channel. So same way books written by "famous authors" are. And my personal experience and observation is there are TONS of great writers who never make more than pocket change on really good writing. My conclusion, skill may be necessary. But it isn't sufficient. And then the other thing is, I never know how a book will "perform" financially. You can make zero on a great book. You can a bundle almost overnight on a so-so book.

My conclusion: Success in book publishing and authoring is very random. And best "explained" by luck. And I don't think other entrepreneurial ventures work any differently.

« Last Edit: October 07, 2022, 07:08:36 AM by SeattleCPA »

chemistk

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #61 on: October 07, 2022, 10:15:20 AM »
What Bezos, Musk, Gates, Branson, Buffet, Ma, Clooney, Pitt, Lennon, etc. etc. etc. have earned is all rightfully theirs. They are each successful for the things they have done and the risks they've taken.

Can I offer an alternative explanation? What if they've just been lucky.

BTW I'm not saying they aren't smart. But I'd suggest they've mostly been lucky.

In the US, you've got 50,000 new businesses started each month. Occasionally, one of those businesses enjoys years or sometimes decades of spectacular growth. And then you have another billionaire. Or cenitmillionaire.

Quote
But the rest of us (in Western economies) are born, live, and die under the guise that we have every opportunity to be just like them. The same thing goes for the hundreds of thousands of CEO's and C-suite leaders, that if you just work hard enough you can be just like them.

Hard work, I'd guess we all agree, contributes a little bit to success.

I was surprised when I stumbled on research a while back that showed iQ added very, very little to your income and almost nothing to your wealth. E.g., each IQ point adds I think $200 to $600 to your income. So if you're 30 points above the median, two standard deviations, you're looking at an extra $6K to $18K a year.

But mostly what you or I need is good luck.

A postscript: Some here know I've written a lot of books. No kidding, it's something like 200 titles. In English, those titles have sold like 5,000,000 copies. Almost all about technology. But the books were sold through the trade channel. So same way books written by "famous authors" are. And my personal experience and observation is there are TONS of great writers who never make more than pocket change on really good writing. My conclusion, skill may be necessary. But it isn't sufficient. And then the other thing is, I never know how a book will "perform" financially. You can make zero on a great book. You can a bundle almost overnight on a so-so book.

My conclusion: Success in book publishing and authoring is very random. And best "explained" by luck. And I don't think other entrepreneurial ventures work any differently.

These are necessary observations, and when the issues that lead to inequality are observed, the question that should be asked is 'why should the lucky also be the fortunate?'

It's a challenging question, because each of us has myriad chances over our lives to take advantage of, essentially, pure fortune. Many of us have missed countless opportunities that would have required skill, prescience, and planning in tandem with a stroke of luck. I attribute, more than anything, the success in my career to luck. I am skilled enough to do well with what I do but I started my career as a contract employee and my contract was not going to be renewed (not for a lack of skill, it's just how contractors are handled here). It was only because three tenured employees in my group were retiring at the exact time my contract was up for renewal that I was able to secure a full time role.

I wonder where I would be today, and whether my career would have even been anywhere close to the sciences. Or maybe because I'm here, I missed a bigger opportunity. I'll never know.

To that same effect, we are here as a society because this is the path that civilization took. But why do we presuppose that growth and innovation have to continue to be nurtured by the capital of the elite? The elite who all have luck to thank for some or all of their success. Musk has luck on his side (in addition to plenty of skill and a certain flavor of charisma), the same as the child of any billionaire (in being born into wealth).

Yet this is almost never factored into the equation. You never hear a morning news anchor, much less Biden or Buffet declare at the beginning of a broadcast or a speech "Thank the Lord Almighty that we weren't born into sub-Saharan Africa, or Indonesia, or rural China." And despite someone living in abject poverty in rural Louisiana being able to tout the same benefit, I don't thnk you'd hear many if any in backwater Creole country declare that, for any reason other than a reminder of the little fortune they do have.

It's impossible to believe that Western society is built solely around a deterministic point of view and yet that's kind of how luck is treated. You're poor not because you were born poor, minority, disabled, or stupid - you're poor because you aren't working hard enough or following the rules or sloughing off the setbacks you started with the bring yourself to the level of everyone else.

I tread in very dangerous waters and I want to be clear that I am not necessarily advocating for outright socialism or communism. We are governed by statistics and statistics tell us that there will be a winner-class and a loser-class no matter how wide or narrow or skewed the bell curve is. The greatest works of mankind may have already been written and are sitting in a clay pot or a dusty drawer or in the annals of some AWS server. I think it should go without saying that in the finite time we have, we cannot societally recognize every great book or piece of art or technological design. There are no guarantees in life and that phrase, in its truest form, is in my opinion almost entirely lost on modern Western society.

So what if the greats were in the right place at the right time? The directive is that we are to work just as hard as them and we too may have our chance. And every day, plenty of people suffer at the altar of progress.

 

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #62 on: October 07, 2022, 11:49:45 AM »
It's impossible to believe that Western society is built solely around a deterministic point of view and yet that's kind of how luck is treated.

I'm not sure we're using the same definition for "deterministic," Or even if I've got my own muddled definitions of deterministic and probabilistic.

But I think many people operate with a simple deterministic point of view. So I'm rich because I'm smart. Or made good decisions. Or I'm poor because the rich are exploiting me.

As you can tell, I'm very much not deterministic. I'm way deep into the probabilistic camp.

chemistk

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Re: Inequality is killing our economies
« Reply #63 on: October 07, 2022, 12:43:50 PM »
It's impossible to believe that Western society is built solely around a deterministic point of view and yet that's kind of how luck is treated.

I'm not sure we're using the same definition for "deterministic," Or even if I've got my own muddled definitions of deterministic and probabilistic.

But I think many people operate with a simple deterministic point of view. So I'm rich because I'm smart. Or made good decisions. Or I'm poor because the rich are exploiting me.

As you can tell, I'm very much not deterministic. I'm way deep into the probabilistic camp.

I'm taking determinism by its most literal interpretation - that free will is a fallacy of perception. Not saying I carry that belief (although I'm not convinced that superdeterminism has been fully disproved). Luck, in the realm of economics and sociology, as far as I have been able to learn and understand is almost never accepted as the ultimate answer to the question of why something happened the way it did. Again, I am very open to hearing how luck is treated in earnest if my interpretations aren't correct.

A lot of that, in my view, has to do with the fact that you can't study luck. You can't account for it in a model. Random chance is not quite enough to explain luck, and so in our societal institutions we focus on the things that we can change and control, rightfully so. We all know that if you buy a lottery ticket you could be the winner, but we generally understand that's improbable to impossible and so we carry on with our lives even if we're holding the winning ticket in our pocket hours prior to the drawing.

So that nets out (in my view) to a mystical definition of luck. "If the fates allow" or "God's plan for me" or other flavors of that ambiguous idea that at any point our break could come.