But then it is like axe clever said the prices will go up.
I'm not really a proponent or opponent of the Cadillac Tax itself. I have to see this stuff so much that it isn't that political to me. It's just a thing I deal with at work. That being said, I'm not convinced the cost curve would bend all that much.
This tax would ultimately be passed along to employers, and I don't know of any employers that love paying more for health insurance coverage and so they have incentives to lower costs already, yet have been largely unsuccessful. Remember that a good portion of employer plans are self-insured, meaning they don't purchase insurance and instead really just pay the insurer to act as an administrator while they pay their own claims.
When I checked out some plans they would only be about $100 a month for my family, big drop from my employer insurance. So would this raise premiums, if they delay implementation of the tax, or are there price controls? And I guess price controls would lead to company's folding ->single payer?
The premiums you seem to be comparing are net of the employer-portion of premium in your employer plan, and net of subsidies in the individual market. The Cadillac Tax is calculated on the full cost of employer coverage.
It wouldn't really affect much on the individual market since the Cadillac Tax only applies to employer-sponsored coverage, unless an insurer is subsidizing costs between markets. It wouldn't affect much, that is, unless employers stop dropping coverage and sending people to the Exchange, changing the makeup of the individual market.
For the small group insurance market, rates must be filed so any "price controls" come in the form of whether a state approves your rates along with competitive forces. Large group insured rates aren't usually filed with the same rigor as individual/small group rates, so the price controls come in the form of "Am I cheaper than my competitor?" For self-insured rates, the company is paying their own claims and taking the risk for those claims.
It could do lots of things to the employer-sponsored market. Delaying the tax could raise rates because employers have less incentive to control costs without the tax. It could lower employee premiums if companies were just going to pass the tax through to employee premiums. It could stop or delay the devaluing of plans through reduced cost sharing. It could stop or delay employers dropping insurance altogether and sending employees into the individual market.
I would guess that, rather than bending the cost curve, many employers would just offer less and less valuable plans until they say "Screw it!" and stop offering insurance. Many employers will stick around, especially those with unions who demand employer-offered insurance.