Sounds like a well reasoned conclusion, but it really doesn't play out that way with a Prius. Taxi companies are regularly running them the first 300k miles with a few wheel bearings, and tires. They are ending up at the top of cost of ownership surveys, as being the most reliable and cheapest vehicle to operate long term. There are probably other hybrids that don't pencil out as well, but I doubt that, if the goal is 15-20 years of operation and a minimum of 300K miles of service, there is a more reliable, cost effective option out there. Certainly there are Corrollas, Civics, Accords and Tacomas that will run that distance easily, but when long term repair, maintenance and fuel costs are factored, my guess is that they can't compete.
I think we got a little side-tracked here. I am not trying to get into debate that that taxi companies regularly run them the first 300K miles and the cost of ownership is cheaper compare to others. But imo that does not apply here.
Why?
Because we are discussing 12 yr old car that has 152K. Correct me if I am wrong here, but there is no data that shows Prius still come up as winner (lowest cost) from 150K to 300K. Just because it has the lowest cost of ownership for the first 10 years (which was posted above), it does not means it will be the winner from 10 year - 20 year. And of course, in the first 10 years, some of the cost of maintenance are covered by warranty, so if anything breaks, does that counts as cost of ownership? because presumably the dealer fix that for free.
Also, unless OP is using his Prius as taxi, the comparison does not really apply here. Taxi do not go on short trips - the engine gets started, and run until it reach optimum temp and stayed there. Short trips are harder on engine - that is why companies recommend a more frequent oil change when cars are used for short trips often.
Not trying to rain on OP's parade, and I really hope OP's Prius will be trouble-free until 300K, but we need to look at the data and fact correctly here.
I just went thru the same discussion with a friend, trying to help him determine which car is the most economical for his needs. For used cars without warranty, we come to conclusion that small non-hybrid car like Civic or Corrolla is a safer bet due to it's simplicity. Yes, gas cost maybe higher than Prius, but that cost are split into years of ownership. And if you look at the miles/gallon + gas prices now, the differences every year are not that much. When a hybrid battery need to be replaced, you can not really spread the cost. And just because most battery last a long time, does not means you do not have a risk of spending the money here.
Sorry, but the fact that a Prius can go the first 300k in taxi duty with no significant repairs is far from a useless piece of information in this discussion, simply because few vehicles can match that kind of durability and reliability. The industry really only had one other rock solid choice, which was the old Panther class Fords, (Crown Vic) If a vehicle is stunningly reliable in 300k miles of severe duty service, it matters, A LOT. Have you seen a lot of other fWD, unibody competitors in taxi fleets? I once got a ride in a newer Dodge caravan taxi with 260K on it. I comment about it to the driver, who responded that the thing is maintained and/or repaired on a nightly basis, and has a check engine light that cannot be cured, so don't be too impressed.
When it comes to long term, multi-decade, 200k+ mileage data, as I'm sure you are aware, it's pretty hard to find. It would also be incredibly suspect. I saw one study of the longest lasting vehicles, that even the authors noted could be suspect, due to issues like municipal fleets that keep vehicles for decades, and taxi fleets that recycle used municipal vehicles and drive then forever.
The other extremely important fact in this discussion is, the overall experience of operating a vehicle for the second half of it's life, is highly dependent on how well it was cared for since day one. If you're the kind of owner who takes it to a quick lube place every 10-12K miles, ignores four out of five issues the vehicle has since "hell, it still runs", and put's the cheapest of everything on it, from tires, to parts, it's not going to be a prime candidate for going the distance. If you do things like I do, with 5K synthetic oil changes, changing every other fluid every 30K or two years, and doing quality repairs with OEM parts, it's a totally different picture.
I find it amusing that most cost of ownership discussions involving Priuses always end up at the, "well, you lose WHEN the battery quits, and you know it's gonna' happen any day, so there" claims. Oddly enough, there seems to be damn few actual owners who ever needing batteries, and several low cost solutions to the problem of a weak or failed battery. I would suggest that driving an old civic or similar always comes with the risk of a blown head gasket, and warped head, a failed auto transmission, or a worn out clutch, all of which can easily cost as much, or more than the mythical, continually failing batteries, that oddly enough, don't seem to fail very often.
