Welp, came home from a long travel weekend, walked into the house, and saw a puddle under the door to the utility closet.
Opened it up and found water coming out the bottom of the furnace. Pre-MMM, I would have cussed a lot and called the HVAC dude, which runs $240 a visit now.
Post MMM? Shut the power off to it, opened up the cover, shop vacced out the water, found the source, replaced the leaking tube and rusted clamps (guess it was leaking for a while?), and did some other cleaning. Turned it back on, and... still leaked! Cussed a bit, adjusted the clamp and no more leak.
Lesson learned: Still gonna cuss at my HVAC, no matter who works on it.