There's some good data in there but the thesis is misguided.
One of the arguments the author is using to support the data is that the housing market is particularly bullish, suggesting that a 'top' of sorts is here. His assertation is that the 'real' stock of housing units per capita (adjusted) has remained relatively unchanged and is just as healthy as it was before Covid. He suggests that there's ultimately a shortage of sellers, more or less because current homeowners may not have much incentive to move with WFH being an acceptable form or work and coupled with the unwillingness to lose on a 2-3% mortgage rate.
He also argues that shrinking household sizes (millennials having fewer kids), decreasing immigration, and rising sqft/occupant signals that there's enough houses but people aren't adjusting to the size they need yet.
Ultimately he thinks that we're in for a correction, with mortgage rates rising and a projection of new home construction to beginning to decrease, the glut of wanting to buy right now to not miss out on the market is going to exhaust the supply of capable buyers and prices will begin to fall again.
Unfortunately I can't say that he's completely correct about all of that, one of the factors he's choosing to turn a blind eye towards is the falling real wage. He takes a passing swipe at it, calling it out as ridiculous, but not factoring it in as a piece in the puzzle that's going to keep younger folks out of the market for a longer time.
Another one is the institutional investor - again he's trying to diminish the impact it's currently having on the market but I don't think he's willing to look at the longer term impacts of investors' ability to buy homes en masse. As people are edged out of the market with rising rates and falling buying power, it's the investors with deep pockets who will probably be the first winners - being able to scoop up homes at a discount and turn them into rentals before younger homebuyers can put all the pieces together.
But the most egregious omission is directly tied to his thesis - there's not enough sellers right now because there isn't anywhere for current homeowners to go. Folks want to capitalize on the appreciation but in order to to so, you've got to be able to move somewhere that's cheaper than what you have right now. Barring cross-country relocation, not everyone can do that and worse I think those who could have already did so in 2020/2021. While WFH is finally rooted in place, I think it's going to be a very slow climb of acceptability as most places are asking people to come in a couple days a week again.
Just because there's technically enough homes right now, doesn't mean that we don't have a shortage. It's like that car-escape puzzle game. All the pieces have to move in a different order to get out of the gridlock - and so long as the car is stuck sitting in traffic, the housing market isn't going to straighten itself out anytime soon.
