Ask yourself this: if you are staying for the unforeseeable future, then why do you care if the value goes down after purchase? It will likely come back up again before you sell.
Let’s say you’re right, and values are near peak...unless something inordinate happens, value decreases will likely be very gradual and minimal (and interest rates may continue to increase); and that won’t happen until a few more years of increases probably. THEN, you have to wait for the decrease to fall to or below today’s value, because “decrease” only refers to an action, not a result. If values are $300k today, then increase to $390k, then decrease to $325k, that’s still a decrease, but not lower than today’s value, which is unhelpful to you. And it could take 10 years for all of this to happen.
I was a FTHB during the recession, and I can tell you that the abnormally deflated values messes with the head and expectations of even the most logical person. We probably won’t see that much negative change in real estate for a long long time even though there are many people (yes, I’m one
of them), who still hope otherwise.
When it comes to buying a personal residence, just stick to buying what you can afford, and bump the market. If you want to wait in order to save more money that is fine also. But remember the longer you wait, even if values go down a bit, other housing related costs will likely continue to go up. Things such as taxes, insurance, utilities, RENT, and other house-related services and materials.
Your better bet is to focus on finding deals at street level, instead of waiting for something catastrophic enough to affect the market on the whole, which is less likely to happen. There are always foreclosures, and people wanting to sell quickly, and fixer uppers which you can earn sweat equity on.