Author Topic: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe  (Read 2624 times)

jnw

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Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« on: February 17, 2022, 06:10:14 AM »
I know Personal Capital has an option to pull latest Zillow price to keep your Net Worth balance up to date, but to me this doesn't make sense for a couple reasons.

Zillow's price seems a bit inflated for my home saying it's worth $123k.  Realtor.com says my home is worth $109k.  The tax assessor says the home is worth $97k.

I decided to go with $105k for the value.  But when you sell, realtors get like 6% and then there are closing costs and repairs etc.  So I settled on manually entering my current value of home as 90% of $105k or $94,500.   I think it makes sense to take into consideration the costs of what it would cost to sell the home as part of your Net Worth.  Otherwise it's really not accurate.  I do the same when I acquire larger ticket personal property items.. I consider the costs involved in selling it (e.g. ebay fees, paypal fees, shipping, etc.) and I deduct that from the current fair/depreciated value.

Fishindude

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2022, 06:11:33 AM »
Doesn't really matter, just be consistent in the way you come up with a value.

Askel

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #2 on: February 17, 2022, 06:16:11 AM »
The zillow model is very very broken in my neighborhood.  I used to link it to my mint account but had to stop doing so due to the insane 100%+ price fluctuations it would go through on a day to day basis. 

One day my wife re-organized our spice rack. The zillow price estimate went from ~$50k to ~$120k that evening.   I still make sure I put the spices back EXACTLY WHERE I FOUND THEM. :D   
« Last Edit: February 17, 2022, 07:00:02 AM by Askel »

Paper Chaser

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2022, 06:58:46 AM »
Net worth can be useful for tracking progress, but it's not really accurate and isn't particularly useful for retirement considerations, etc.
Outside of tracking current balances in financial accounts, net worth calculations induce tons of guesswork.

iris lily

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2022, 06:59:18 AM »
The zillow model is very very broken in my neighborhood.  I used to link it to my mint account buy had to stop doing so due to the insane 100%+ price fluctuations it would go through on a day to day basis. 

One day my wife re-organized our spice rack. The zillow price estimate went from ~$50k to ~$120k that evening.   I still make sure I put the spices back EXACTLY WHERE I FOUND THEM. :D
who knew! So Spices are the driver for these values…

NorCal

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #5 on: February 17, 2022, 07:09:09 AM »
Yea, I've never seen the value in tracking the value of my personal residence for FI calculations.  I'd be interested if my plans involved selling and downsizing, eliminating PMI, or turning it into a rental.  It doesn't matter much otherwise. 

I just set the value at ~90% of the price I paid for it and leave it alone.  Having the value jump around would just confuse everything else.

Morning Glory

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2022, 07:27:44 AM »
The zillow model is very very broken in my neighborhood.  I used to link it to my mint account buy had to stop doing so due to the insane 100%+ price fluctuations it would go through on a day to day basis. 

One day my wife re-organized our spice rack. The zillow price estimate went from ~$50k to ~$120k that evening.   I still make sure I put the spices back EXACTLY WHERE I FOUND THEM. :D
who knew! So Spices are the driver for these values…

Yeah I had to turn off Zillow in mint when I had my farm house because it was driving me nuts, and mine very predictably varied with the seasons.

Dicey

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #7 on: February 17, 2022, 08:53:12 AM »
I would ignore the tax assessment completely, as they're typically lagging. I would then suggest using Zillow and Redfin (or your local equivalent) and averaging the two values.

Redfin tends to undervalue our primary home and overvalue our rentals, which are in a completely different market. Zillow does the reverse. Yet, when I add them up, the total value is almost to the dollar, which cracks me up.

Another frugal real estate weirdo way to have fun is to use either site to do a search. Set up parameters that match your home for lot size, square footage,  bed/bath count, etc. Choose "Recent Sales" and see what comes up. Average those, adjust for different amenities and you've got a decent idea of current market value.

Recently, we did this with our primary. We have a huge, 3-car, 1050 sf garage.  They're not all that common in our area, so I only got 6 matches, and the prices weren't great. I repeated the search, without the 3-car garage, and got 21 hits and much higher values. Are houses with smaller garages worth more? No. It's just that all the houses with three car garages that have sold recently were older/smaller/whatever. That's how these estimates can get so wonky.

SwordGuy

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #8 on: February 17, 2022, 11:36:08 AM »
The zillow model is very very broken in my neighborhood.  I used to link it to my mint account but had to stop doing so due to the insane 100%+ price fluctuations it would go through on a day to day basis. 

One day my wife re-organized our spice rack. The zillow price estimate went from ~$50k to ~$120k that evening.   I still make sure I put the spices back EXACTLY WHERE I FOUND THEM. :D

The spice must flow...

SwordGuy

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2022, 11:46:02 AM »
You can be all kinds of complicated or all kinds of simple when calculating net worth.   What matters is if you are consistent.

The purpose of a net worth comparison is to see approximately how well you are doing at building wealth. 

The consistency in measurement allows you to see whether your wealth is going up or going down over time, which is where this measurement really shines.

So, I go for simple because I get all the value of tracking net worth over time with very little work.

You see, I have no idea whether I'll sell my property with or without a realtor.  Could go either way.  I have no idea what my taxes will be in the future because there are so very many variables that are not in my control.

As for Zillow, I don't trust Zillow because I know it doesn't factor in lots of important things about a property's sale value.    I make my own reasonable estimates using Zillow as a basis.   I pay no attention to a tax assessor's opinion on a property's value when it comes to calculating net worth -- they have no idea what the current value is even if the sale was made the prior day.

SquarePeg

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2022, 06:05:06 PM »
It might be worth noting that the assessor's valuation is not intended to be an estimate of your "what you'd get if you sold your house" home value. It's used to determine your "fair" share of the local tax needs. At least that's how it works here in King County WA.

jnw

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2022, 07:16:30 PM »
It might be worth noting that the assessor's valuation is not intended to be an estimate of your "what you'd get if you sold your house" home value. It's used to determine your "fair" share of the local tax needs. At least that's how it works here in King County WA.

I don't have the letter in front of me, but it was like $97k, then they reduced it to like $85k or something they taxed me on.  So there were two values on the letter.

iris lily

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2022, 08:13:25 AM »
It might be worth noting that the assessor's valuation is not intended to be an estimate of your "what you'd get if you sold your house" home value. It's used to determine your "fair" share of the local tax needs. At least that's how it works here in King County WA.
yes, assessed value for tax purposes is never market value.

economista

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2022, 08:31:56 AM »
It might be worth noting that the assessor's valuation is not intended to be an estimate of your "what you'd get if you sold your house" home value. It's used to determine your "fair" share of the local tax needs. At least that's how it works here in King County WA.
yes, assessed value for tax purposes is never market value.

Seconding this. I bought my house in September for $620k and the appraisal came in at $625k. I just got our new tax assessment. Their assessment of the value was $410,692 and the assessed value is only $29,364, which is the basis upon which they apply the tax rate. The taxes owned from the assessed value is $2,670.84 (I'm in a very low property-tax area).

When calculating my net worth I compare the balance on my mortgage to what that most recent appraisal was. Honestly in my area zillow is extremely accurate (the house we sold in Sept sold for $3k more than the zillow estimate) but I like to be more conservative in my estimate of the value. Current zillow estimate is $669,800. I believe it, given how fast prices continue to rise in this area.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2022, 09:05:38 PM »
Yea, I've never seen the value in tracking the value of my personal residence for FI calculations.  I'd be interested if my plans involved selling and downsizing, eliminating PMI, or turning it into a rental.  It doesn't matter much otherwise. 

I just set the value at ~90% of the price I paid for it and leave it alone.  Having the value jump around would just confuse everything else.

I do something very similar. I look at the comps every 3-6 months and set the price to 93% of my estimated value.

SwordGuy

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2022, 08:32:02 AM »
Yea, I've never seen the value in tracking the value of my personal residence for FI calculations.  I'd be interested if my plans involved selling and downsizing, eliminating PMI, or turning it into a rental.  It doesn't matter much otherwise. 

The title of this thread is Real Estate and Net Worth gripe, not FI Calculation Gripe.  It's perfectly appropriate to track the value of all real estate one owns in a Net Worth calculation, in fact, one should.

A whole lot of discussions would be shorter and a whole lot fewer mistakes in deciding whether one was FI ready would be made if folks stopped confusing these two topics.


ColoradoTribe

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2022, 09:25:46 AM »
One more vote for including the full value of real estate in your NW calculation. It’s good to know that there will be commissions to keep that in mind, but keep the calc simple. You wouldn’t try to estimate capital gains taxes on your stock  portfolio as part of your NW calc I imagine. Tracking NW is most useful to show long-term trends. How fast are you building wealth, how volatile is your NW, do you need to reduce volatility as you approach FIRE, etc?

clarkfan1979

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2022, 07:38:52 AM »
One more vote for including the full value of real estate in your NW calculation. It’s good to know that there will be commissions to keep that in mind, but keep the calc simple. You wouldn’t try to estimate capital gains taxes on your stock  portfolio as part of your NW calc I imagine. Tracking NW is most useful to show long-term trends. How fast are you building wealth, how volatile is your NW, do you need to reduce volatility as you approach FIRE, etc?

When I had 1 house and it was worth around 225K, I didn't deduct the closing costs to estimate my net worth, because the cost was only around $16,000. Now 10 years later, I have 4 houses and the combined value is 2.25 million. Now the closing costs equate to $160,000. It seems more accurate to me to deduct 7% for closing costs. Being off by $160,000 in my net worth calculator doesn't seem helpful. I do agree about ignoring capital gains.

 

SwordGuy

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2022, 09:12:21 AM »
When I had 1 house and it was worth around 225K, I didn't deduct the closing costs to estimate my net worth, because the cost was only around $16,000. Now 10 years later, I have 4 houses and the combined value is 2.25 million. Now the closing costs equate to $160,000. It seems more accurate to me to deduct 7% for closing costs. Being off by $160,000 in my net worth calculator doesn't seem helpful. I do agree about ignoring capital gains.

Do you also subtract taxes you'll have to pay on your 401k or brokerage accounts when you pull them out?

ColoradoTribe

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #19 on: February 20, 2022, 03:06:10 PM »
One more vote for including the full value of real estate in your NW calculation. It’s good to know that there will be commissions to keep that in mind, but keep the calc simple. You wouldn’t try to estimate capital gains taxes on your stock  portfolio as part of your NW calc I imagine. Tracking NW is most useful to show long-term trends. How fast are you building wealth, how volatile is your NW, do you need to reduce volatility as you approach FIRE, etc?

When I had 1 house and it was worth around 225K, I didn't deduct the closing costs to estimate my net worth, because the cost was only around $16,000. Now 10 years later, I have 4 houses and the combined value is 2.25 million. Now the closing costs equate to $160,000. It seems more accurate to me to deduct 7% for closing costs. Being off by $160,000 in my net worth calculator doesn't seem helpful. I do agree about ignoring capital gains.

 

That’s fair.

jnw

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #20 on: February 20, 2022, 05:04:28 PM »
The reason I don't care about future capital gains or taxes on investment accounts is, I put that money in there with never any intention of spending it.  But it makes sense to reduce Net Worth of real estate by 7 to 10 percent because I might sell this home later to get a different home, I don't know.  Seems more likely I'd sell this before I would investments.

Sibley

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Re: Real Estate and Net Worth gripe
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2022, 12:39:58 PM »
I use the tax basis in my net worth. Couple reasons: it's easy, and if I need to know the tax basis, then I already have it. Also, it offsets the mortgage balance. It's absolutely not FMV, but I'm not comfortable including my house at FMV in my net worth. I don't consider the house to be an investment, it's where I live. If I owned a rental property (not interested), then FMV would be the appropriate number to use. There are obviously different philosophies that you can use. Mine happens to completely avoid the Zillow problem.