Author Topic: Property in Australia  (Read 96711 times)

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #400 on: March 05, 2019, 03:08:27 AM »
Prices here in Melbourne and in Sydney are down around 10% year on year. I guess the question is 'how much lower it will go'.

I've heard people say it's about to start/started increasing, and reports saying that the prices look to continue to fall.

I wonder how many of the more bullish publications rely on RE advertising heavily for revenue or have substantial investments themselves?

I'll start looking again in a couple of months. Should be fine but just need to wait for the right place to pop up.

I will say though, in plenty of the 'sold' sections of the RE sites, the prices are shown as 'contact agent'. Presumably the agents don't want to reveal the pricing because it's below what they expected originally.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2019, 03:13:48 AM by alsoknownasDean »

Little Aussie Battler

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #401 on: March 05, 2019, 03:49:26 AM »
We also have to keep in mind that RE agents don't really care about the price. They just want high churn, so will tell buyers and sellers whatever they think helps them achieve that.

bigchrisb

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #402 on: March 05, 2019, 05:15:45 AM »
I'm watching the market with a passing interest - would consider upgrading PPOR if the right place came along at the right price.  In the areas I'm looking (Canberra), things are getting less competitive, but prices themselves are only slightly moderating so far.   I also suspect that the next recession will be ugly for housing.  As to when that will be, no idea.

Alchemisst

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #403 on: March 06, 2019, 11:42:33 PM »
Since Australian property is quite expensive I have been trying to figure out whether it is worth buying or continue renting and put the deposit/ rent saved into index funds. Seems much easier to buy in places like the U.S where you can buy for cheaper than renting and even make money renting out the spare room etc..

mrcheese

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #404 on: April 12, 2019, 10:48:21 PM »
The house next door to me is up for sale for 70k less than it was purchased for 5 years ago. Seeing as it is basically identical to mine, I'm feeling a little bit depressed...

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #405 on: April 13, 2019, 01:14:28 AM »
The house next door to me is up for sale for 70k less than it was purchased for 5 years ago. Seeing as it is basically identical to mine, I'm feeling a little bit depressed...

That sounds like a massive drop. What location are you MrCheese?

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #406 on: April 13, 2019, 01:15:02 AM »
The house next door to me is up for sale for 70k less than it was purchased for 5 years ago. Seeing as it is basically identical to mine, I'm feeling a little bit depressed...

Which city?

mrcheese

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #407 on: April 15, 2019, 05:48:47 AM »
This is in Perth. I'm guessing they want a quick sale.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #408 on: April 23, 2019, 12:21:50 AM »
The bank just lopped $80,000 combined off the valuations of my properties last week.

I am still well up overall on them, but that was not a nice feeling. My net worth "growth" for the year is suddenly -$2000.


arebelspy

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #409 on: April 23, 2019, 01:27:20 PM »
IDK how it works there, so can you explain to me why the bank was evaluating the value of them at all?  (For us, it would only be done when selling, refinancing, etc.)
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chasingthegoodlife

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #410 on: April 24, 2019, 02:40:32 PM »
Iím also curious about that?

Iíve just been using On The House, and for the unit other sales in the block, to get a rough idea.

Have been meaning to ask some REAs for estimates but havenít quite got around to it.

Curious to know how others track their valuations?

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #411 on: April 24, 2019, 02:51:20 PM »
IDK how it works there, so can you explain to me why the bank was evaluating the value of them at all?  (For us, it would only be done when selling, refinancing, etc.)

@arebelspy  My Bank (through its app and online banking system) has a function which is basically a net worth calculator - it knows all your transaction, savings and loan accounts, and the property assets used as security. You can manually add your shares not held through the Bank's brokerage arm, or any other assets and loans and voila, a net worth spat out for you.

The Property valuations are sourced from a combination of RPData and CoreLogic which is the local property industry's companies that track all sales and purchases (your equivalent of Zillow(?)) and are updated whenever new data is input - generally 2-3 months after enough recent sales have occurred in the area to re-calculate an estimated value.

The Big 4 banks here control about 85% of the entire home loan market, so they basically know everything about everyone anyway. Not too dissimilar to certain tech companies in that regard, although much more highly regulated...

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #412 on: April 24, 2019, 03:48:57 PM »
I love the data on On The House for the history. My neighbour bought their place for $83k back in the day :) They've just sold it for over $2m and should have a pretty nice retirement (moving to a cheaper area). I reckon they have achieved about 10% down from if they'd sold in the crazy peak, maybe 15%, but you just wouldn't care after 35 yrs, would you, it all seems like crazy money.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #413 on: April 25, 2019, 02:40:06 AM »
I love the data on On The House for the history. My neighbour bought their place for $83k back in the day :) They've just sold it for over $2m and should have a pretty nice retirement (moving to a cheaper area). I reckon they have achieved about 10% down from if they'd sold in the crazy peak, maybe 15%, but you just wouldn't care after 35 yrs, would you, it all seems like crazy money.

Yeah I've always found On The House quite useful, but I've noticed lately its estimated property value ranges are becoming wider and wider.

It's never an exact science I'll admit, but I don't want to have to say my net worth is between a several hundred thousand dollar range :)

Ozstache

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #414 on: April 25, 2019, 03:33:00 AM »
Yeah I've always found On The House quite useful, but I've noticed lately its estimated property value ranges are becoming wider and wider.

I use On The House too, but last month it was way off the mark saying our house price dropped $135K in a month and that my MIL's place increase by over $100K, with both houses being in a relatively flat market at the moment. Big grain of salt with estimates from this site lately.

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #415 on: April 25, 2019, 04:07:52 AM »
Whilst I do look at On The House and other online valuations of my specific properties (which are quite different from web site to web site), on a month to month basis, I have little faith in them.

In practice I use the Core Value Index for Sydney and Brisbane to approximately track changes in value of my houses. I also monitor sales most weeks and from time to time there is a sale that is a very good reference to my places, which might result in me making a judgemental change to the value I carry them on my spreadsheet. I try to stay on the conservative side with my valuations.

Currently on my house in sydney, Ia showing a value in my spreadsheet that is $100K below ON The House.

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #416 on: April 25, 2019, 04:21:17 AM »
On the House is only useful for history and looking up what your neighbour sold for when the other sites say "price withheld" ;)

happy

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #417 on: April 25, 2019, 04:14:08 PM »
On the House is only useful for history and looking up what your neighbour sold for when the other sites say "price withheld" ;)
Allhomes is useful for this too

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #418 on: May 04, 2019, 09:51:29 PM »
Mixed reports around. Some are saying the downturn has further to run, yet auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney are trending up and are around 60% now.

Together with whatever the RBA decides on Tuesday, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #419 on: May 04, 2019, 10:11:02 PM »
Suspect downturn still has a bit to run, assuming Labor gets into power, cuts out negative gearing, and its tax hikes hit high-income earners. All those things will hurt demand.

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #420 on: May 04, 2019, 10:51:04 PM »
Everything I read says it has further to go, no matter whoís in government. But no one seems to be very good at gazing into a chrystal ball these days. When they were predicting the downturn, they all seemed to be saying it would last three years.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #421 on: May 05, 2019, 01:06:41 AM »
Suspect downturn still has a bit to run, assuming Labor gets into power, cuts out negative gearing, and its tax hikes hit high-income earners. All those things will hurt demand.

Wonderful.* Perhaps then Property investments will stack up on their merits like they do in the US, rather than require help from the taxpayer to make the investment case work.

Also wonderful, in that I might be able to buy a house without having to pay lottery winning type money to do so.

*Note I am the target subset of the population who will be slammed by the proposals, but, at the end of it all, I'll still be better off than others, because I won't throw my toys out the cot like a baby and sell everything. I'll continue to invest where it makes sense.


Bloop Bloop

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #422 on: May 05, 2019, 01:14:55 AM »
I hope property stays stagnant for a while but ideally I don't want governments trying to help FHB over investors - I've never seen housing as anything but an investment asset. I think the ideal of everyone owning their own house is a little outdated.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #423 on: May 05, 2019, 01:21:49 AM »
I hope property stays stagnant for a while but ideally I don't want governments trying to help FHB over investors - I've never seen housing as anything but an investment asset. I think the ideal of everyone owning their own house is a little outdated.

I don't see it that way. Owning a house outright and having a job/income is the best antidote to poverty. Too many people, women especially, enter retirement with neither a home, nor a nest egg to their name.

You can't rent in retirement and be on the age pension in Sydney. Surefire way to homelessness, and the consequences of taxpayers picking up the bill for that are much worse.

I can see you sit on the side of not using taxpayer dollars to help anyone. I'd rather the government spend a little now to help people into the housing market, and save a hell of a lot more money in future in not having to pay for things like rent assistance and other welfare benefits.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #424 on: May 05, 2019, 01:47:48 AM »
Although I don't disagree with what you said, I have two major objections to the current state of gov't intervention:

1. The smattering of FHOG/FHB stamp duty exemptions do nothing other than push up property prices. In other words, they're inefficient and don't help the people they're intended to help.

2. Whilst I sympathise with the need to give people a nest-egg in retirement, the current system is actually overly generous to retirees, because their PPOR is not counted. This means the government is effectively subsidising the passing on of property from one generation to another - by paying people a very generous pension despite them owning a property. There is no justification for this, and it leads to all sorts of distortions.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #425 on: May 05, 2019, 01:54:57 AM »
Although I don't disagree with what you said, I have two major objections to the current state of gov't intervention:

1. The smattering of FHOG/FHB stamp duty exemptions do nothing other than push up property prices. In other words, they're inefficient and don't help the people they're intended to help.

2. Whilst I sympathise with the need to give people a nest-egg in retirement, the current system is actually overly generous to retirees, because their PPOR is not counted. This means the government is effectively subsidising the passing on of property from one generation to another - by paying people a very generous pension despite them owning a property. There is no justification for this, and it leads to all sorts of distortions.


I agree with both of these points (quite strongly in fact). The challenge is if you don't provide direct assistance to the first home owner then some of the concessions afforded to the seasoned investor need to be wound back.

The extent to which those concessions should be wound back is a debate without an answer I feel, because the circumstances of every property market in Australia is different.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #426 on: June 19, 2019, 05:13:38 AM »
Given the recent issues in Sydney with structural issues in apartment buildings and subsequent evacuations, I suspect the values of many apartments have plummeted. I certainly wouldn't buy one.
p
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 08:07:06 AM by alsoknownasDean »

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #427 on: September 17, 2019, 05:43:32 AM »
Anecdotally there seems to be an awful lot more people at inspections lately. Slightly annoying as I'm ready to buy now haha.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #428 on: September 17, 2019, 01:15:11 PM »
As a Canadian I find this thread fascinating.

turboslob

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #429 on: February 06, 2020, 02:45:26 AM »
Hi, ya'll.

Thinking of getting on the debt train, and getting a PPOR. Have some money in ETFs and shares, and some in cash. Currently seeing a broker and I'm considering paying LMI, as it's likely that we'll live in it for a short while (~18 months), rent it out for a few years, then return (thus, some of the LMI is likely to be tax deductable). Plus, I like the idea of having some 'emergency' cash (~10%) for if things get tight.

With that in mind, I was trying to calculate/work out numerically when it may be beneficial? A Google search yields everyone trying to avoid it, but I can see benefits of copping it, even though we are able to pay it, if required.

Eg, 700k property, 10% deposit LMI ~=17k
Eg, 700k property, 15% deposit LMI ~= 8.5k

Those prices seem linear (that was the first search I did, but I've also seen others that are not).

So, does anyone have a yardstick as to when it's worth paying it? In the lame example above, having an extra 8k in the 'sleep at night'/offset could be fairly reassuring, vs paying LMI.

Thanks.

nath

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #430 on: February 07, 2020, 03:45:27 AM »
Hmm generally you would try to avoid paying LMI as itís no benefit to you and quite expensive.
This means a 20% deposit on most properties, possibly more on some apartments,
unless you can get one of Scott Morrisonís specially subsidized first home buyer offers. Which is limited to only 10,000 people and postcode and price dependent.

If putting 20% down means you will be out of cash for a while and be living on the edge while rebuilding savings then so be it. You could always have a credit card for emergencies

As for LMI being tax deductible on an investment property,  it just comes off the capital base so it is only deductible from your capital gain when / if selling. If you borrow to pay for it The interest on that LMI could be deducted annually.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 03:48:36 AM by nath »

Model96

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #431 on: February 29, 2020, 04:34:33 PM »
Anecdotally there seems to be an awful lot more people at inspections lately. Slightly annoying as I'm ready to buy now haha.

It's worth setting up realestate.co.au to send you an email weekly on auction clearance rates for your area. It will give you 3 months or more early notice of where the market is heading and confirm or deny anecdotal evidence for you.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #432 on: March 29, 2020, 07:05:49 PM »
Tenant paid his rent on my property for March (up to the end of the first week of April). I know his job has been put on ice so I'm expecting a call at some point about negotiating a discount or rent free period.

Has anyone received the dreaded "sorry I can't pay" call yet?

What have you been able to negotiate so far?

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #433 on: March 29, 2020, 07:30:38 PM »
Tenant paid his rent on my property for March (up to the end of the first week of April). I know his job has been put on ice so I'm expecting a call at some point about negotiating a discount or rent free period.

Has anyone received the dreaded "sorry I can't pay" call yet?

What have you been able to negotiate so far?

I'm waiting for more details about the support packages. My tenants are self employed and one industry disappeared in a puff of smoke. The other is in property.

I hope that a) they have savings and b) they don't ask for rent holidays without spending those first. There's obviously no way of knowing. We don't have a mortgage but the rent is our income so it's either them spending down their cash or us. If it comes to it I hope we can share the hit eg 50% reduction for 6 months. I wouldn't be evicting them even if it was permitted.

middo

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #434 on: March 29, 2020, 08:27:15 PM »
Tenant paid his rent on my property for March (up to the end of the first week of April). I know his job has been put on ice so I'm expecting a call at some point about negotiating a discount or rent free period.

Has anyone received the dreaded "sorry I can't pay" call yet?

What have you been able to negotiate so far?

I'm waiting for more details about the support packages. My tenants are self employed and one industry disappeared in a puff of smoke. The other is in property.

I hope that a) they have savings and b) they don't ask for rent holidays without spending those first. There's obviously no way of knowing. We don't have a mortgage but the rent is our income so it's either them spending down their cash or us. If it comes to it I hope we can share the hit eg 50% reduction for 6 months. I wouldn't be evicting them even if it was permitted.

We should be Ok.  Our house has 2 cousins, one is a nurse and the other is a school teacher.  Their jobs are safe.

Our unit is just leased to an operator for BHP, who is FIFO to the Kimberley.  I assume he is OK given what I have heard so far.

We would not evict if they couldn't pay anyway.  They are good tenants and will be after this.  I also could not do that in this climate.  Stay at home means just that.

We have mortgages on both properties, and can probably service them ourselves for 4 or 5 months from savings and earnings before it would get tight.  Wr would talk to the bank before then.

bigchrisb

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #435 on: March 30, 2020, 06:10:36 AM »
My tenant is a commonwealth government contractor. I'm hopeful that they stay employed - I suspect govt will need all the IT capacities it can get while things are being done remotely.  However, you never know. I also wouldn't evict in the current circumstances, but don't know how I will respond yet. Hopefully I don't need to!

happy

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #436 on: March 30, 2020, 04:39:20 PM »
One of my  tenants has had a 50% reduction in their work volume, the other is working from home. I also hope they will stay sufficiently employed. I wouldn't evict even if I was able to, and would try to negotiate something fair and reasonable if approached.

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #437 on: March 30, 2020, 05:07:19 PM »
Still no details from NSW on support for renters. There is so much money flying around now that will cover food & essentials, loans have been sorted with payment holidays, so really it's just rent left to sort out. I kind of want the burden to be heavy on the landlords for social equity reasons, even though I am one!

Bloop Bloop

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #438 on: March 30, 2020, 07:18:31 PM »
You don't need to worry about social equity. The $500 billion that's been spent will have to be paid back by high earners. They will be big losers from this crisis. I'm already projecting a 10% drop in disposable income due to the effect of the rescission of stage 2 and 3 tax cuts and the pending tax hikes to cover for the government spending.

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #439 on: April 30, 2020, 11:05:59 PM »
Property prices seem to be hit very hard where I am, and the vacancy rate is skyrocketing in both Sydney & Melbourne for rentals

Auction clearance rates fell by more than half during the covid-19 period as well in the major capitals of Sydney & Melbourne.

As the Government has announced Jobkeeper and paying employees $1,500 a week at a minimum it may cushion the blow

Just wondering how policies by the big 4 are going to affect it, for instance Westpac is giving 6-month repayment holiday mortgages so I wonder how the market will be after this 6-month period ends and unemployment is still high

Very interesting times ahead for Australian property in the next year

LonerMatt

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #440 on: May 01, 2020, 04:25:13 AM »
Hoping for a fall of 10%+ in Melbourne so we can buy, if we don't want to move to another city.

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #441 on: May 01, 2020, 05:42:02 PM »
Property prices seem to be hit very hard where I am, and the vacancy rate is skyrocketing in both Sydney & Melbourne for rentals

Auction clearance rates fell by more than half during the covid-19 period as well in the major capitals of Sydney & Melbourne.

As the Government has announced Jobkeeper and paying employees $1,500 a week at a minimum it may cushion the blow

Just wondering how policies by the big 4 are going to affect it, for instance Westpac is giving 6-month repayment holiday mortgages so I wonder how the market will be after this 6-month period ends and unemployment is still high

Very interesting times ahead for Australian property in the next year

I didn't see big drops in prices in the numbers released yesterday.  I did see a big drop in clearance rates which will probably feed into prices in the future.

Rent prices are forecast to drop the most, but there has also been a fall in new home approvals, so supply is not necessarily going to free up a lot.

I think prices will continue to go sideways.  Immigration being at zero will have more effect on Melbourne and Sydney prices over the next year or two than most other markets.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #442 on: May 02, 2020, 07:48:24 AM »
Yeah I'm the silly bastard who bought a place just before everything went to crap. Settlement in about two and a half weeks. Whatever, even if it drops 25% now, it'll probably be worth at least as much as I paid in five years time. Hey, it fit all the criteria and I was sick of looking :)

Regarding LMI, I view it as a hedge against increasing prices. Paying $10K LMI now might not be such a bad idea compared to saving the 20%, only for the place to be worth 50K more by the time you've saved the extra.

Just given notice to the agent for my current place. I'm sure the landlord is ecstatic for the joint to be vacant in a down market, but that's not my problem. It's a cheap one bedder flat in an inner suburb so there'll always be demand for it.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #443 on: May 04, 2020, 09:23:03 PM »
Tenant paid his rent on my property for March (up to the end of the first week of April). I know his job has been put on ice so I'm expecting a call at some point about negotiating a discount or rent free period.

Has anyone received the dreaded "sorry I can't pay" call yet?

What have you been able to negotiate so far?

I'm waiting for more details about the support packages. My tenants are self employed and one industry disappeared in a puff of smoke. The other is in property.

I hope that a) they have savings and b) they don't ask for rent holidays without spending those first. There's obviously no way of knowing. We don't have a mortgage but the rent is our income so it's either them spending down their cash or us. If it comes to it I hope we can share the hit eg 50% reduction for 6 months. I wouldn't be evicting them even if it was permitted.

We should be Ok.  Our house has 2 cousins, one is a nurse and the other is a school teacher.  Their jobs are safe.

Our unit is just leased to an operator for BHP, who is FIFO to the Kimberley.  I assume he is OK given what I have heard so far.

We would not evict if they couldn't pay anyway.  They are good tenants and will be after this.  I also could not do that in this climate.  Stay at home means just that.

We have mortgages on both properties, and can probably service them ourselves for 4 or 5 months from savings and earnings before it would get tight.  Wr would talk to the bank before then.

Tenant missed most of April rent. Job keeper hadn't come through and tenant has been trying to access his Super.

Supposably he is up to date now but I won't know until the end of the month when the payment comes through from the Property Manager.

I feel really bad, I would have been ok with a long term payment plan. But I guess I've got a PM who is paid to be hard nosed about it. If the rent doesn't get paid she doesn't get paid either.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #444 on: May 04, 2020, 09:26:01 PM »
Have not seen any falls in prices yet near me. The bank helpfully revalued my properties up this month!

Have seen reports of a glut of inner city apartments because of all the AirBnB and international students going MIA. The AirBnB apartments are coming back onto the market as normal rentals and dragging rents lower everywhere.

Rents seem to be holding up in my area though. It's really location dependant for what is happening.

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #445 on: May 04, 2020, 10:46:45 PM »
I was happy to see that both of my sets of tenants paid their rent in April as per normal (old normal 😉).

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #446 on: May 05, 2020, 01:51:53 AM »
My tenants have not missed a payment but I was asked to sign a rent assistance form. I looked up rent assistance and I think the max they can get is about $80 a week so would hardly make a dent in the rent. Hopefully tenant 1 will completely change his business or get a job elsewhere because I reckon his industry is down for at least a year! 

Wrenchturner

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #447 on: May 05, 2020, 03:25:39 AM »
Saw this headline today:

NSW government may buy up spare housing in $500 million stimulus plan

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-government-may-buy-up-spare-housing-in-500-million-stimulus-plan-20200427-p54noc.html

""This would afford the Land and Housing Corporation the opportunity to either on-sell at a later date or keep as part of the Land and Housing Corporation social housing stock," it says."

Am I crazy or does this reek of moral hazard?

Fresh Bread

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #448 on: May 05, 2020, 04:27:05 AM »
The headline's a bit click baity, isn't it. Reading the article, it seems like there are social housing developments that are both needed and ready to build and just need funding and fast tracking. Don't see anything wrong with that, it's a shame it took a crisis. 

Wrenchturner

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #449 on: May 05, 2020, 02:58:33 PM »
Did you miss the parts about buying up existing, unsold stock?

"It lists several projects in Parramatta, Westmead and South Granville where the government could "negotiate with the developer" to buy dozens of unsold apartments."

""Private sector developers are dealing with low demand, which could last for a long time Ė both due to declining consumer confidence, and reduced population growth. Banks will be hesitant to loan money for development without that consumer demand.

"We therefore urge the government to further its stimulus in a sector that will make an enormous impact to the vulnerable in our community.""

Seems like a backdoor way to bail out developers.  Maybe more people could afford properties if prices were permitted to drop?