Author Topic: Property in Australia  (Read 61125 times)

Anatidae V

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #350 on: February 19, 2018, 04:58:18 AM »
We just jumped into property... We bought our first family home and get the keys in a couple of weeks. The market in Perth really has worked in our favour to let us save a deposit much faster than the stagnant prices moved, no matter how many awkward articles my FIL sent us saying "buy now!!". FWIW we saw a lot of homes in very crap condition, and many where they'd been extremely superficially renovated so you couldn't see how crap their condition was. Finally settled on a solid 90's brick house that has barely been upgraded, because it was looked after. Looking forward to all the little surprises I'm sure we didn't know to look for and the stuff that breaks as soon as you move in :D

stashgrower

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #351 on: February 19, 2018, 05:28:51 AM »
Congratulations!!

nnls

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #352 on: February 19, 2018, 02:32:48 PM »
We just jumped into property... We bought our first family home and get the keys in a couple of weeks. The market in Perth really has worked in our favour to let us save a deposit much faster than the stagnant prices moved, no matter how many awkward articles my FIL sent us saying "buy now!!". FWIW we saw a lot of homes in very crap condition, and many where they'd been extremely superficially renovated so you couldn't see how crap their condition was. Finally settled on a solid 90's brick house that has barely been upgraded, because it was looked after. Looking forward to all the little surprises I'm sure we didn't know to look for and the stuff that breaks as soon as you move in :D

Congratulations!

Hopefully no surprises in there

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #353 on: July 03, 2018, 07:39:33 AM »
So both Melbourne and Sydney have had quarter on quarter declines. Auction clearance rates in the 50s.

Temporary blip or a sign of more to come?
« Last Edit: July 03, 2018, 07:42:00 AM by alsoknownasDean »

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #354 on: July 03, 2018, 11:27:58 AM »
More to come

GT

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #355 on: July 03, 2018, 04:55:45 PM »
More to come

That'd be nice, my wife keeps ignoring our decision to rent for the rest of our lives and keeps sending me links to property and I don't want to look at them, because if they're any good I'll have to go back to work to afford to buy them.

BattlaP

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #356 on: July 03, 2018, 06:01:44 PM »
More to come

That'd be nice, my wife keeps ignoring our decision to rent for the rest of our lives and keeps sending me links to property and I don't want to look at them, because if they're any good I'll have to go back to work to afford to buy them.

Are you me?

limeandpepper

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #357 on: July 03, 2018, 06:17:17 PM »
From what I understand the banks are stricter on lending now so people can't pay ridiculous amounts of money for property they probably can't afford anymore, accounting for the decline? Plus the introduction of some restrictions on property investments etc.

I've noticed that not only are auction clearance rates down, but also the number of properties on the market / up for auction are much fewer than last year. So this indicates to me that prices are going down, but also a bunch of people will just not sell if they can't get a good price for it.

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #358 on: July 04, 2018, 11:51:40 AM »
Houses in Sydney and Melbourne are crazy expensive. They have to go down.

When interest rates finally climb a little, whenever that might be, prices will suffer a little.

In Sydney prices have dropped 5-7%. Iíd expect the same again, taking around 15% off the market from the peak. It could even end up being 20%. There is plenty of room for values to drop.

nath

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #359 on: July 05, 2018, 07:01:04 AM »
Looks like Aussie mortgage lending will get tighter and tighter with the royal commission continuing.
The general living expenses calculations have been very low for a long time, giving people access to more credit than was sensible.
Now though many people people will not be able to get another mortgage again, and apparently up to 50% of mortgages are declined. Kinda not surprising considering how indebted and over committed some have become, they are dreaming spending so much on housing.
$1million mortgage on your own home is not for normal income families, hello!
Many will get a shock if they plan to sell off investments to quit while they are ahead too, as in the future they may not be able to buy again..

For the markets though the headline news does not tell much of the true story (as usual).  There is many many variances and many markets within each big city.  For instance if Toorak or Point Piper prices dropped 10-20% do you think the owners actually need to sell? No way. They just hold out for a few years until the price is right. More than 50% of prestige property owners have no mortgage at all.

But cheap house and land packages are built for the masses, most of those are mortgaged at 70-90% and it will effect their overall equity if the market drops but once again are they interested in selling if prices drop? Probably not either.  So you end up with a lot less stock on the market and then you will see stupid news articles pointing to all the negative stats as usual. However with a lot less stock the market is hardly dropping and 5 or 10% is not much anyway compared to year after year of double digit growth we have experienced.
In the end it all evens out and prices continue to climb over the long term as anybody with basic economics understanding will tell. There is inflation, federal monetary policy, population growth, jobs growth all playing a factor here.

Iíll keep my investments forever and when I do my spreadsheet projections all I would expect is 5% growth on apartments and maybe 7-8% on houses but history shows the market usually performs much better than that.

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #360 on: July 05, 2018, 10:27:58 AM »
I am willing to ge the moron that says this time is different.

There is absolutely no reason for an apartment to up 8% year on year. An apartment creates the same value in real terms every year - it is a roof over peoples heads. That is all. It makes more sense that apartments go up in value in line with wages,

House prices have grown like crazy because households are now generally forced to be double income, which was not the case a generation ago (or maybe 2 now as Iím getting old) and because interest rates are at all time lows. Foreign investors and wealthy baby boomers feeding on a diet of tax favouritism has also played its part.

Households can only spend a certain percentage of their income on housing and polygamy is not likely to become mainstream soon.

Small upward movements in interest rates will really curtail any possible upward movement in house prices.

Well, this is theory A anyway. Theory B is Sydney becomes Hong Kong and house ownership climbs out of the reach of most families, unless you are happy to live with your kids or n a 50 Sam studio.

LonerMatt

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #361 on: July 05, 2018, 02:11:31 PM »
What would it take for house prices to return to something more affordable?

Saying, the median house price somewhere around 4-5x the median salary?

Even if you have a dual income household, median salary is ~$78k, so $150k x4 = $600k

The median house price in Melbourne and Sydney is well north of that.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #362 on: July 05, 2018, 10:07:14 PM »
What would it take for house prices to return to something more affordable?

A recession? Look how average prices in Perth have fared since the end of the mining boom. Rising unemployment or lower income would cause more forced sales and fewer purchases, and a weaker economy would result in lower net migration, easing pressure on prices.

A recession would of course have all sorts of unpleasant side effects. However, we've had 27-28 years since the last recession, it's folly to assume that there'll never be another one.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #363 on: July 06, 2018, 02:12:56 AM »
What would it take for house prices to return to something more affordable?

A recession? Look how average prices in Perth have fared since the end of the mining boom. Rising unemployment or lower income would cause more forced sales and fewer purchases, and a weaker economy would result in lower net migration, easing pressure on prices.

A recession would of course have all sorts of unpleasant side effects. However, we've had 27-28 years since the last recession, it's folly to assume that there'll never be another one.

Chicken and egg - Housing price falls may cause a recession, because construction is such a large part of the economy.

I am suddenly mad keen to buy another property, but my head says prices still have a long way to fall in Sydney and then stabilise for a number of years.

Tried out a lending calc yesterday. The Bank's cal cut the maximum loan at such a point where I still had $20,000(!) excess income available. Even at P&I and 7.5% interest rate.

$20,000 excess income could normally service at least $300,000 of debt, which means everyone's borrowing capacity has been reduced by that much due to APRA and ASIC regulations.

So someone looking to buy a $1.5m property would now only be able to get a loan for a $1.2m property....

So yes, prices will come down. Just how much is the million dollar question.

itchyfeet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #364 on: July 14, 2018, 12:23:08 PM »
Auction Clearance rates in Sydney are now at or below 50% and interest rates havenít even started climbing yet. This correction is going to pretty big I think. The air has been sucked right out of the market.

I donít think it is time to buy yet. Maybe next year.

LonerMatt

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #365 on: July 20, 2018, 05:49:42 PM »
drop, prices, drop

gf and I are holding cash, this is goooood for us if there's a massive correction.