Author Topic: Property in Australia  (Read 27611 times)

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #250 on: December 20, 2016, 09:34:17 PM »
There are not lots of people making a shedload of money. you just happen to live in a neighbourhood where people buy very expensive houses. The average Australian HOUSEHOLD has in income of $106k, while the median household gets $80k. However the top fifth are getting much richer than the other 80% - see https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/sep/10/australias-rich-are-getting-richer-everyone-else-is-stagnating

I was just joking around Deborah, I'm well aware those people are not the average....!

nnls

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #251 on: December 21, 2016, 02:22:52 AM »
its a bit crazy in Sydney

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/pintsized-apartments-snapped-up-for-top-dollar-as-governments-crack-down-on-minimum-sizes/news-story/a79761925759e9dc498e4cb236f48ee1

Quote
A micro-apartment in inner city Sydney, which has just 14sq m of floor space, has its toilet right next to its kitchen sink. And it sold last week for a whopping $350,000 a total of $25,000 per square metre.

Grogounet

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #252 on: December 21, 2016, 11:54:20 PM »
Well, this is not going to finish in good shape for the Aussie prop market

GT

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #253 on: January 05, 2017, 09:59:09 PM »
Apparently we are contemplating a move to Melbourne from Brisbane, this could be fun, I checked prices for the equivalent of what we have and had a lol.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #254 on: January 07, 2017, 03:35:25 AM »
I had a look at Adelaide prices earlier. It's cheap compared to here or Sydney. That said, I can still find somewhat affordable housing in Melbourne, but if I lived in Sydney I'd be considering a move.

I wonder how Adelaide housing would fare as an investment? Easier entry point and all of that.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2017, 03:37:01 AM by alsoknownasDean »

deborah

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #255 on: January 13, 2017, 12:37:11 PM »
I had a look at Adelaide prices earlier. It's cheap compared to here or Sydney. That said, I can still find somewhat affordable housing in Melbourne, but if I lived in Sydney I'd be considering a move.

I wonder how Adelaide housing would fare as an investment? Easier entry point and all of that.
A young friend of mine got into housing by buying in Geelong - better than a lot of places because it has a number of employers, and quite cheap. Then she bought a couple of other places in carefully selected regional Victorian cities with diverse industries. She seems to be doing very well.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #256 on: January 13, 2017, 05:45:53 PM »
I had a look at Adelaide prices earlier. It's cheap compared to here or Sydney. That said, I can still find somewhat affordable housing in Melbourne, but if I lived in Sydney I'd be considering a move.

I wonder how Adelaide housing would fare as an investment? Easier entry point and all of that.
A young friend of mine got into housing by buying in Geelong - better than a lot of places because it has a number of employers, and quite cheap. Then she bought a couple of other places in carefully selected regional Victorian cities with diverse industries. She seems to be doing very well.

Yeah Geelong isn't a bad area for that ($400K would get a house in many areas), especially the southern/south western suburbs. I'd be wary about buying in parts of the northern suburbs of Geelong as it might struggle after the closure of the Ford plant (it's already a lower SES area, and a major employer closing is never a good thing). Although is it a great idea to buy in an area with new housing being built nearby (there's lots of new development to the south of Geelong)?

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #257 on: March 13, 2017, 08:59:32 PM »
Funny!

https://www.domain.com.au/news/tennis-court-and-pool-sell-for-53-million-in-manly-house-not-included-20170313-guwvbw/

I walk up this street often, half the places look like shit boxes to me, or just too mansion-y! Spectacular views though.

Sydneystache

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #258 on: March 13, 2017, 11:59:49 PM »
Some of the best views on the northern beaches. The street where it is located is where we park to go down to Shelly Beach and snorkel. Still, you have to deal with Manly traffic, parking and locals. There are better places in the State for that type of dosh so looks like a trophy land buy.

There's a nice house, looks decrepit compared to its neighbours, with a gate and few steps that opens directly to Shelly, just across the forest walkway and cafe. Now, that would be a lovely buy. That, and the couple of fibro houses located at the bottom of Tamarama gully.

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #259 on: March 14, 2017, 12:44:45 AM »
We're all boned. Sydney is getting out of control.

I would have preferred if the boom ended 6 months ago and we flatlined... that way we would have been unlikely to have a crash. Every % it ticks up now means a bit more pain for those buying in now.

Absolute stupidity going on. 2 bed units going for over a million near where I am, ~30km from the city centre. Madness.

I actually agree with Abbott on this one (probably the only thing I agree with him on). The city is being choked with unchecked immigration... don't cut immigration completely, but politicians need to stop pretending the city can absorb over 100,000 immigrants a year + natural increase without straining the existing infrastructure, and without putting pressure on house prices because there are not enough houses near employment centres.

We are adding a population the size of Hobart to Sydney every 18 months. As I said, madness.

deborah

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #260 on: March 14, 2017, 12:51:24 AM »
Even more madness is the fact that Melbourne is growing faster than Sydney, and is expected to overtake it at some point. But Sydney is pretty constrained (Blue Mountains, Royal National Park, Harbour and Ocean, and Ku Ring Gai NP), whereas Melbourne's surrounds are pretty flat.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 12:54:24 AM by deborah »

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #261 on: March 14, 2017, 09:17:01 PM »
Some of the best views on the northern beaches. The street where it is located is where we park to go down to Shelly Beach and snorkel. Still, you have to deal with Manly traffic, parking and locals. There are better places in the State for that type of dosh so looks like a trophy land buy.

There's a nice house, looks decrepit compared to its neighbours, with a gate and few steps that opens directly to Shelly, just across the forest walkway and cafe. Now, that would be a lovely buy. That, and the couple of fibro houses located at the bottom of Tamarama gully.

The worst bit is, they aren't even buying it, it's leasehold. I'll have a look for that house, but I don't fancy sweeping the sea out every year when there's a storm. I'd rather be on a cliff, but a couple of hundred metres back...

Dropbear

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #262 on: March 25, 2017, 07:55:13 PM »
I'm interested in keeping an eye on this thread, even though I've decided that it would take a substantial dip in prices before I would consider buying into standard market real estate products.

I also agree with marty998 about massive population growth being at the core of the affordability problem.

potm

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #263 on: March 28, 2017, 07:56:02 AM »
Is it really increased demand from new immigrants causing price growth in Sydney at the moment? Maybe if all the immigrants were on significant investor visas. Higher prices should cause people to look elsewhere. I think it's just rampant speculation and fomo overdrive. It's like the point of capitulation but the other way.

Dropbear

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #264 on: March 29, 2017, 12:48:45 AM »
Is it really increased demand from new immigrants causing price growth in Sydney at the moment? Maybe if all the immigrants were on significant investor visas. Higher prices should cause people to look elsewhere. I think it's just rampant speculation and fomo overdrive. It's like the point of capitulation but the other way.

I should probably clarify that I think there's a whole number of contributing factors that collectively cause the housing affordability problem.  Rampant speculation is certainly part of it, I'd agree.  The population growth in our cities exacerbates infrastructure deficiencies in things like transport, schools, and housing; but at the same time it also reassures property investors that there is a base level of demand for their properties.

The "higher prices should cause people to look elsewhere" idea is true for people looking to buy property for its housing value, but for people looking at property as an investment market, higher prices cause higher demand for investment products.

nnls

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #265 on: March 31, 2017, 12:05:27 AM »
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/apra-moves-to-tighten-mortgage-rules-20170330-gvaigd.html

There are now some restrictions on the number of interest only loans that banks can issue, it will be interesting to see if this does have a bit of affect on housing prices like the government seems to be hoping

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #266 on: March 31, 2017, 12:39:52 AM »
Most of the banks have written around 40% of their loan book as interest only loans. APRA has asked them to come down to 30%.

Back of the envelope suggests that's about $160billion in loans I reckon that need to be switched to P&I in the next little while. I reckon the Banks will ratchet up interest rates on IO loans to force it to happen.

If tomorrow's auction clearance rate remains at record highs with record medians then you have to question the sanity of buyers who should know they are about to get slaughtered.

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #267 on: April 05, 2017, 01:39:54 AM »
Our IP will go on the market in about 3/4 weeks, it's the earliest we can do, but I'm starting to crap myself that all these crazy buyers will evaporate before then. Even my credit union just raised rates. What is the market looking like in everyone else's neck of the woods? Our IP is in bluechip Sydney and the surrounding area is still looking strong but obviously I've been talking to real estate people recently and they are clouding my judgement with all their optimism. 

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #268 on: April 05, 2017, 02:10:14 AM »
Money Magazine has an interesting comparison this month about house price data between the ABS, Core Logic, SQM and one other provider I forget the name of.

The % growth figures are all over the shop for all of them in all capital cities.

Hard to know who to believe these days.

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #269 on: April 05, 2017, 02:44:37 AM »
Interesting...

The real estate agents I'm using seem to think that we'll get a buyer. I just can't grasp how there can be more out there other than the other 2 or 3 buyers that bought in the price range nearby but I'm told it's just the price to get into property now and people are just paying it. Hubby says not to underestimate the number of people who just need to buy right now for whatever reason, and are getting help from parents or who have come into money etc etc.

The agents don't see a crash coming, I don't know if they have been in the industry for so long that they've drunk the koolaid, or are just saying what they think I want to hear, or whether they honestly believe people will just keep buying at these prices. If there's a crash we won't sell but we'll be out of pocket for the various pre-sale expenses - quite expensive entertainment but it is keeping me engaged!

Was RP Data the other source? \

Ozstache

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #270 on: April 05, 2017, 03:29:41 AM »
I've been talking to real estate people recently and they are clouding my judgement with all their optimism.

When are real estate people ever NOT optimistic about the outlook for property? :)

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #271 on: April 05, 2017, 04:45:51 AM »
Was RP Data the other source? \

Probably, or it could have been Fairfax/Domain.

I've been talking to real estate people recently and they are clouding my judgement with all their optimism.

When are real estate people ever NOT optimistic about the outlook for property? :)

Spruiker of 7:30 report today trying to say "do whatever possible to buy... just buy, even if you have no money just buy something, anything"

It's all gone mad. Saving grace is the RBA not raising interest rates, but the banks are already doing it for them anyway.

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #272 on: April 05, 2017, 05:31:28 AM »
I've been talking to real estate people recently and they are clouding my judgement with all their optimism.

When are real estate people ever NOT optimistic about the outlook for property? :)

No, never, but I'm not normally in contact with them :)

englyn

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #273 on: April 05, 2017, 09:07:59 PM »
I wish some of that boom would average itself out over here in Perth :(
My IP has lost almost 1/4 of its value and my mum is having a lot of difficulty selling her home, despite very reasonable pricing.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #274 on: April 06, 2017, 03:16:21 AM »
I wish some of that boom would average itself out over here in Perth :(
My IP has lost almost 1/4 of its value and my mum is having a lot of difficulty selling her home, despite very reasonable pricing.

So, sell Sydney housing, buy Perth housing instead?

I wonder how many SMSFs are buying houses these days with leverage, and what limits on LVR apply to houses purchased by an SMSF? Should we look into limiting LVR on housing loans to SMSFs to 50% or less? Especially since the typical person with an SMSF is likely to be older (ie: closer to preservation/retirement age) and would be affected more heavily by a crash?

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #275 on: April 06, 2017, 03:43:13 AM »
I wish some of that boom would average itself out over here in Perth :(
My IP has lost almost 1/4 of its value and my mum is having a lot of difficulty selling her home, despite very reasonable pricing.

So, sell Sydney housing, buy Perth housing instead?

I wonder how many SMSFs are buying houses these days with leverage, and what limits on LVR apply to houses purchased by an SMSF? Should we look into limiting LVR on housing loans to SMSFs to 50% or less? Especially since the typical person with an SMSF is likely to be older (ie: closer to preservation/retirement age) and would be affected more heavily by a crash?

Was under the impression most limit it to an LVR of 70% and there's a max % of your fund that can be invested in an asset.

There's also a liquidity issue - what happens when you turn 70 and you need to withdraw a 6% pension but your property is only yielding 3.5% after costs? You can't sell a house brick by brick...

So even though you're supposed to have a liquidity buffer... that could get eaten away quite quickly if there is a price correction. Suddenly there could be a lot of SMSF's needing to sell at the same time to meet pension obligations.

This is exactly what's "different" this time. In previous booms & busts, most people were not forced sellers - as long as they met their mortgage repayment they were fine.

This time around, many SMSFs could be forced to sell whether they are meeting their loan repayment obligations or not.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #276 on: April 06, 2017, 04:31:59 AM »
I wish some of that boom would average itself out over here in Perth :(
My IP has lost almost 1/4 of its value and my mum is having a lot of difficulty selling her home, despite very reasonable pricing.

So, sell Sydney housing, buy Perth housing instead?

I wonder how many SMSFs are buying houses these days with leverage, and what limits on LVR apply to houses purchased by an SMSF? Should we look into limiting LVR on housing loans to SMSFs to 50% or less? Especially since the typical person with an SMSF is likely to be older (ie: closer to preservation/retirement age) and would be affected more heavily by a crash?

Was under the impression most limit it to an LVR of 70% and there's a max % of your fund that can be invested in an asset.

There's also a liquidity issue - what happens when you turn 70 and you need to withdraw a 6% pension but your property is only yielding 3.5% after costs? You can't sell a house brick by brick...

So even though you're supposed to have a liquidity buffer... that could get eaten away quite quickly if there is a price correction. Suddenly there could be a lot of SMSF's needing to sell at the same time to meet pension obligations.

This is exactly what's "different" this time. In previous booms & busts, most people were not forced sellers - as long as they met their mortgage repayment they were fine.

This time around, many SMSFs could be forced to sell whether they are meeting their loan repayment obligations or not.

A further complication would be that if house prices were to have a significant correction, some people close to retirement age who may be currently fairly close to self-funded might end up being forced onto the age pension if they had a lot of their portfolio in leveraged residential housing. That of course starts a 'should the government dictate how people invest their super?' argument, which is probably outside the scope of this thread :)

potm

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #277 on: April 06, 2017, 08:23:48 AM »
So it's been just over 2.5 years since I started this thread. At that time I was interested in buying an apartment in the city to live in.
I've since totally lost interest in that idea. I love my shares that give me money too much to sell them to buy something that will cost me money.

I did have a look today at the apartments that I was interested in buying at the time. It seems like prices are still at the same level, they haven't had any growth. In fact there's been no price growth in these apartments since about 2010. I guess it's not too surprising for the Melbourne apartment market.

alsoknownasDean

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #278 on: April 20, 2017, 02:43:03 AM »
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/inflation-data-suffers-from-exclusion-of-housing/8457718

I mentioned something in a similar vein in this thread six months ago. :)

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #279 on: April 20, 2017, 03:13:17 AM »
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/inflation-data-suffers-from-exclusion-of-housing/8457718

I mentioned something in a similar vein in this thread six months ago. :)

I know house prices in Melbourne and Sydney are crazy, but the statistic of 44% growth nationally over the last few years, can that be true? Given the losses in WA and the stagnation in many regional areas, it's kind of misleading.

I can never get my head around all the macroeconomic levers, but including my capital appreciation in CPI seems intuitively wrong since I can't spend it. Increasing wages (for those that are linked to CPI) won't counter the supply problem, so it would probably just increase prices even further. I hope that one day someone has the balls to just address negative gearing. In the US their investment income is taxed at lower rates and that seems to increase inequality, so I'm wary of things that lead to an uneven playing field. And to have a bit of a boomer-esque rant, even though I'm not a boomer, maybe the first time buyers should consider life outside of the capitals, because that's where I lived and bought my first place back in the olden days. It might be the first time I've agreed with Barnaby Joyce on something!

marty998

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #280 on: April 20, 2017, 05:53:11 AM »
Colleague at work just bought a small shoebox apartment in Pymble for $689,000 off the plan. Settlement in just over a year when he'll have to stump up stamp duty of over $30k.

Developers are still cashing in...hopefully for his sake the banks will still be lending.

Rowellen

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #281 on: April 20, 2017, 06:31:43 AM »

I wonder how many SMSFs are buying houses these days with leverage, and what limits on LVR apply to houses purchased by an SMSF? Should we look into limiting LVR on housing loans to SMSFs to 50% or less? Especially since the typical person with an SMSF is likely to be older (ie: closer to preservation/retirement age) and would be affected more heavily by a crash?

I work with SMSFs and have found that those that leverage property tend to be younger than average SMSF members. Like late 30's / early 40's connotations to the majority of clients being over 60.

GT

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #282 on: April 20, 2017, 04:41:45 PM »
Was disappointed to hear Blib Shotten on TripleJ this morning touting the changes Labor are proposing, none of them were to do with fixing negative gearing.

deborah

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #283 on: April 20, 2017, 05:23:19 PM »
Was disappointed to hear Blib Shotten on TripleJ this morning touting the changes Labor are proposing, none of them were to do with fixing negative gearing.
I think that is because they are about to anounce new policies - they already have a NG policy

Freshwater

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #284 on: April 20, 2017, 05:46:13 PM »
Was disappointed to hear Blib Shotten on TripleJ this morning touting the changes Labor are proposing, none of them were to do with fixing negative gearing.

I only skimmed an article about their proposals but I thought they looked liked they might be a step in the right direction without doing any complete fuckwittery e.g. accessing super for PPOR deposits. Here's their policy on NG:
http://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing

Sounds legit but what are the odds of Labour winning an election I wonder.

There was this yesterday too:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-20/housing-affordability-decisions-made-by-big-property-investors/8454978

It says only 10% of the population own investment property and a whole lot of these are politicians!

Apart from the fact that it would affect them and their pals, is there an economic reason put forward by the Libs not to get rid of negative gearing? I would assume that the money saved from NG goes to wealth building and not consumption.

ETA: I was thinking about this some more - if only 10% of people have IPs, and some of these are positively geared, is NG such a big issue in the housing market after all? I guess the stats don't tell us how many properties are held by each member of that 10%. Or how many are owned by companies and trusts and the like. 
« Last Edit: April 20, 2017, 05:57:46 PM by Freshwater »

nnls

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Re: Property in Australia
« Reply #285 on: April 20, 2017, 07:26:35 PM »
An article on news.com.au today basically said the idea of raiding super for property is a bad idea.

 http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/the-great-super-swindle-100k-poorer-and-still-no-deposit/news-story/f59f50f3782c349964398921e3be1a03