ok look it's really hard to see 30 years into the future but your assumption that rent will grow at 4% and other expenses at 2% is causing the issue. 2% differential sounds small but compounded over 30 years is a massive difference (why do you think we talk so much about mutual fund fees???)
I would suggest keeping both at 3% growth and reworking your calcs. Forget inflation for now, try and keep it simple, and perhaps only look at it over 15 years.
Take 4 weeks rent off a year for nominal vacancy and allow for HOA fees or major repairs of $3k per year (whichever is higher). Add insurance, local taxes, water, property manager fees, and another $1000 a year for things like air conditioner maintenance, carpet cleaning, new sets of keys, blinds, curtains, gardening, plumbing repairs etc etc.
Now show us your results.
I took out the first month's rent of the year (4 weeks vacancy) then on the last month took out $4,000 for fees, also accumulating at 3% a year, and subtracted it from the rent to get a negative cash flow. End result is that I pay $40,000 up front to lose $24,750 over the next 15 years, which will then continue to grow as the expenses outpace the income.
So, obviously this is a good model (and accurate!) because everyone would be all over this fantastic opportunity.
month balance interest payment new balance Total payments Total Rent Gain
1 160,000 567 787.11 159,780 1400 1600 200
2 159,780 566 787.11 159,558 1403.50 1604 200.5
3 159,558 565 787.11 159,336 1407.01 1608.01 201.00125
4 159,336 564 787.11 159,114 1410.53 1612.030025 201.5037531
5 159,114 564 787.11 158,890 1414.05 1616.0601 202.0075125
6 158,890 563 787.11 158,666 1417.59 1620.10025 202.5125313
7 158,666 562 787.11 158,440 1421.13 1624.150501 203.0188126
8 158,440 561 787.11 158,214 1424.68 1628.210877 203.5263596
9 158,214 560 787.11 157,988 1428.25 1632.281404 204.0351755
10 157,988 560 787.11 157,760 1431.82 1636.362108 204.5452635
11 157,760 559 787.11 157,532 1435.40 1640.453013 205.0566266
12 157,532 558 787.11 157,303 1438.98 1644.554146 -3794.430732
13 157,303 557 787.11 157,073 1442.58 1648.665531 206.0831914
14 157,073 556 787.11 156,842 1446.19 1652.787195 206.5983994
15 156,842 555 787.11 156,610 1449.80 1656.919163 207.1148954
16 156,610 555 787.11 156,378 1453.43 1661.061461 207.6326826
17 156,378 554 787.11 156,144 1457.06 1665.214114 208.1517643
18 156,144 553 787.11 155,910 1460.71 1669.37715 208.6721437
19 155,910 552 787.11 155,675 1464.36 1673.550593 209.1938241
20 155,675 551 787.11 155,440 1468.02 1677.734469 209.7168086
21 155,440 551 787.11 155,203 1471.69 1681.928805 210.2411007
22 155,203 550 787.11 154,966 1475.37 1686.133627 210.7667034
23 154,966 549 787.11 154,727 1479.06 1690.348961 211.2936202
24 154,727 548 787.11 154,488 1482.75 1694.574834 -3908.178146
25 154,488 547 787.11 154,248 1486.46 1698.811271 212.3514089
26 154,248 546 787.11 154,007 1490.18 1703.058299 212.8822874
27 154,007 545 787.11 153,766 1493.90 1707.315945 213.4144931
28 153,766 545 787.11 153,523 1497.64 1711.584235 213.9480293
29 153,523 544 787.11 153,280 1501.38 1715.863195 214.4828994
30 153,280 543 787.11 153,036 1505.13 1720.152853 215.0191066
31 153,036 542 787.11 152,790 1508.90 1724.453235 215.5566544
32 152,790 541 787.11 152,544 1512.67 1728.764368 216.0955461
33 152,544 540 787.11 152,298 1516.45 1733.086279 216.6357849
34 152,298 539 787.11 152,050 1520.24 1737.418995 217.1773744
35 152,050 539 787.11 151,801 1524.04 1741.762543 217.7203178
36 151,801 538 787.11 151,552 1527.85 1746.116949 -4025.335381
37 151,552 537 787.11 151,301 1531.67 1750.482241 218.8102802
38 151,301 536 787.11 151,050 1535.50 1754.858447 219.3573059
39 151,050 535 787.11 150,798 1539.34 1759.245593 219.9056991
40 150,798 534 787.11 150,545 1543.19 1763.643707 220.4554634
41 150,545 533 787.11 150,291 1547.05 1768.052816 221.006602
42 150,291 532 787.11 150,036 1550.91 1772.472948 221.5591185
43 150,036 531 787.11 149,781 1554.79 1776.904131 222.1130163
44 149,781 530 787.11 149,524 1558.68 1781.346391 222.6682989
45 149,524 530 787.11 149,266 1562.57 1785.799757 223.2249696
46 149,266 529 787.11 149,008 1566.48 1790.264256 223.783032
47 149,008 528 787.11 148,749 1570.40 1794.739917 224.3424896
48 148,749 527 787.11 148,488 1574.32 1799.226767 -4146.004654
49 148,488 526 787.11 148,227 1578.26 1803.724834 225.4656042
50 148,227 525 787.11 147,965 1582.20 1808.234146 226.0292682
51 147,965 524 787.11 147,702 1586.16 1812.754731 226.5943414
52 147,702 523 787.11 147,438 1590.13 1817.286618 227.1608272
53 147,438 522 787.11 147,173 1594.10 1821.829834 227.7287293
54 147,173 521 787.11 146,907 1598.09 1826.384409 228.2980511
55 146,907 520 787.11 146,640 1602.08 1830.95037 228.8687963
56 146,640 519 787.11 146,372 1606.09 1835.527746 229.4409683
57 146,372 518 787.11 146,104 1610.10 1840.116565 230.0145707
58 146,104 517 787.11 145,834 1614.13 1844.716857 230.5896071
59 145,834 516 787.11 145,563 1618.16 1849.328649 231.1660811
60 145,563 516 787.11 145,292 1622.21 1853.951971 -4139.164004
61 145,292 515 787.11 145,019 1626.26 1858.58685 232.3233563
62 145,019 514 787.11 144,746 1630.33 1863.233318 232.9041647
63 144,746 513 787.11 144,471 1634.40 1867.891401 233.4864251
64 144,471 512 787.11 144,196 1638.49 1872.561129 234.0701412
65 144,196 511 787.11 143,920 1642.59 1877.242532 234.6553165
66 143,920 510 787.11 143,642 1646.69 1881.935639 235.2419548
67 143,642 509 787.11 143,364 1650.81 1886.640478 235.8300597
68 143,364 508 787.11 143,084 1654.94 1891.357079 236.4196349
69 143,084 507 787.11 142,804 1659.07 1896.085472 237.0106839
70 142,804 506 787.11 142,523 1663.22 1900.825685 237.6032107
71 142,523 505 787.11 142,240 1667.38 1905.577749 238.1972187
72 142,240 504 787.11 141,957 1671.55 1910.341694 -4263.242528
73 141,957 503 787.11 141,673 1675.73 1915.117548 239.3896935
74 141,673 502 787.11 141,387 1679.92 1919.905342 239.9881677
75 141,387 501 787.11 141,101 1684.12 1924.705105 240.5881382
76 141,101 500 787.11 140,814 1688.33 1929.516868 241.1896085
77 140,814 499 787.11 140,525 1692.55 1934.34066 241.7925825
78 140,525 498 787.11 140,236 1696.78 1939.176512 242.397064
79 140,236 497 787.11 139,945 1701.02 1944.024453 243.0030566
80 139,945 496 787.11 139,654 1705.27 1948.884514 243.6105643
81 139,654 495 787.11 139,361 1709.54 1953.756726 244.2195907
82 139,361 494 787.11 139,068 1713.81 1958.641117 244.8301397
83 139,068 493 787.11 138,773 1718.10 1963.53772 245.442215
84 138,773 491 787.11 138,478 1722.39 1968.446564 -4255.979419
85 138,478 490 787.11 138,181 1726.70 1973.367681 246.6709601
86 138,181 489 787.11 137,883 1731.01 1978.3011 247.2876375
87 137,883 488 787.11 137,584 1735.34 1983.246853 247.9058566
88 137,584 487 787.11 137,285 1739.68 1988.20497 248.5256212
89 137,285 486 787.11 136,984 1744.03 1993.175482 249.1469353
90 136,984 485 787.11 136,682 1748.39 1998.158421 249.7698026
91 136,682 484 787.11 136,379 1752.76 2003.153817 250.3942271
92 136,379 483 787.11 136,075 1757.14 2008.161702 251.0202127
93 136,075 482 787.11 135,769 1761.53 2013.182106 251.6477632
94 135,769 481 787.11 135,463 1765.94 2018.215061 252.2768827
95 135,463 480 787.11 135,156 1770.35 2023.260599 252.9075749
96 135,156 479 787.11 134,847 1774.78 2028.31875 -4383.556453
97 134,847 478 787.11 134,538 1779.22 2033.389547 254.1736934
98 134,538 476 787.11 134,227 1783.66 2038.473021 254.8091276
99 134,227 475 787.11 133,916 1788.12 2043.569204 255.4461505
100 133,916 474 787.11 133,603 1792.59 2048.678127 256.0847658
101 133,603 473 787.11 133,289 1797.07 2053.799822 256.7249777
102 133,289 472 787.11 132,974 1801.57 2058.934322 257.3667902
103 132,974 471 787.11 132,658 1806.07 2064.081657 258.0102072
104 132,658 470 787.11 132,340 1810.59 2069.241861 258.6552327
105 132,340 469 787.11 132,022 1815.11 2074.414966 259.3018708
106 132,022 468 787.11 131,702 1819.65 2079.601004 259.9501254
107 131,702 466 787.11 131,382 1824.20 2084.800006 260.6000008
108 131,382 465 787.11 131,060 1828.76 2090.012006 -4375.844796
109 131,060 464 787.11 130,737 1833.33 2095.237036 261.9046295
110 130,737 463 787.11 130,413 1837.92 2100.475129 262.5593911
111 130,413 462 787.11 130,088 1842.51 2105.726317 263.2157896
112 130,088 461 787.11 129,761 1847.12 2110.990632 263.873829
113 129,761 460 787.11 129,434 1851.73 2116.268109 264.5335136
114 129,434 458 787.11 129,105 1856.36 2121.558779 265.1948474
115 129,105 457 787.11 128,775 1861.00 2126.862676 265.8578345
116 128,775 456 787.11 128,444 1865.66 2132.179833 266.5224791
117 128,444 455 787.11 128,112 1870.32 2137.510282 267.1887853
118 128,112 454 787.11 127,779 1875.00 2142.854058 267.8567573
119 127,779 453 787.11 127,444 1879.68 2148.211193 268.5263992
120 127,444 451 787.11 127,108 1884.38 2153.581721 -4367.898582
121 127,108 450 787.11 126,771 1889.09 2158.965676 269.8707094
122 126,771 449 787.11 126,433 1893.82 2164.36309 270.5453862
123 126,433 448 787.11 126,094 1898.55 2169.773997 271.2217497
124 126,094 447 787.11 125,753 1903.30 2175.198432 271.8998041
125 125,753 445 787.11 125,412 1908.06 2180.636428 272.5795536
126 125,412 444 787.11 125,069 1912.83 2186.08802 273.2610024
127 125,069 443 787.11 124,725 1917.61 2191.55324 273.944155
128 124,725 442 787.11 124,379 1922.40 2197.032123 274.6290153
129 124,379 441 787.11 124,033 1927.21 2202.524703 275.3155879
130 124,033 439 787.11 123,685 1932.03 2208.031015 276.0038768
131 123,685 438 787.11 123,336 1936.86 2213.551092 276.6938865
132 123,336 437 787.11 122,985 1941.70 2219.08497 -4642.10984
133 122,985 436 787.11 122,634 1946.55 2224.632682 278.0790853
134 122,634 434 787.11 122,281 1951.42 2230.194264 278.774283
135 122,281 433 787.11 121,927 1956.30 2235.76975 279.4712187
136 121,927 432 787.11 121,572 1961.19 2241.359174 280.1698968
137 121,572 431 787.11 121,215 1966.09 2246.962572 280.8703215
138 121,215 429 787.11 120,857 1971.01 2252.579979 281.5724973
139 120,857 428 787.11 120,498 1975.93 2258.211429 282.2764286
140 120,498 427 787.11 120,138 1980.87 2263.856957 282.9821196
141 120,138 425 787.11 119,776 1985.83 2269.516599 283.6895749
142 119,776 424 787.11 119,413 1990.79 2275.190391 284.3987989
143 119,413 423 787.11 119,049 1995.77 2280.878367 285.1097959
144 119,049 422 787.11 118,684 2000.76 2286.580563 -4781.257755
145 118,684 420 787.11 118,317 2005.76 2292.297014 286.5371268
146 118,317 419 787.11 117,949 2010.77 2298.027757 287.2534696
147 117,949 418 787.11 117,580 2015.80 2303.772826 287.9716033
148 117,580 416 787.11 117,209 2020.84 2309.532258 288.6915323
149 117,209 415 787.11 116,837 2025.89 2315.306089 289.4132611
150 116,837 414 787.11 116,464 2030.96 2321.094354 290.1367943
151 116,464 412 787.11 116,089 2036.03 2326.89709 290.8621363
152 116,089 411 787.11 115,713 2041.13 2332.714333 291.5892916
153 115,713 410 787.11 115,336 2046.23 2338.546119 292.3182648
154 115,336 408 787.11 114,957 2051.34 2344.392484 293.0490605
155 114,957 407 787.11 114,577 2056.47 2350.253465 293.7816831
156 114,577 406 787.11 114,196 2061.61 2356.129099 -4924.576598
157 114,196 404 787.11 113,813 2066.77 2362.019422 295.2524277
158 113,813 403 787.11 113,429 2071.93 2367.92447 295.9905588
159 113,429 402 787.11 113,044 2077.11 2373.844281 296.7305352
160 113,044 400 787.11 112,657 2082.31 2379.778892 297.4723615
161 112,657 399 787.11 112,269 2087.51 2385.728339 298.2160424
162 112,269 398 787.11 111,879 2092.73 2391.69266 298.9615825
163 111,879 396 787.11 111,488 2097.96 2397.671892 299.7089865
164 111,488 395 787.11 111,096 2103.21 2403.666071 300.4582589
165 111,096 393 787.11 110,703 2108.47 2409.675237 301.2094046
166 110,703 392 787.11 110,307 2113.74 2415.699425 301.9624281
167 110,307 391 787.11 109,911 2119.02 2421.738673 302.7173342
168 109,911 389 787.11 109,513 2124.32 2427.79302 -5072.19139
169 109,513 388 787.11 109,114 2129.63 2433.862502 304.2328128
170 109,114 386 787.11 108,713 2134.95 2439.947159 304.9933948
171 108,713 385 787.11 108,311 2140.29 2446.047027 305.7558783
172 108,311 384 787.11 107,908 2145.64 2452.162144 306.520268
173 107,908 382 787.11 107,503 2151.01 2458.29255 307.2865687
174 107,503 381 787.11 107,096 2156.38 2464.438281 308.0547851
175 107,096 379 787.11 106,689 2161.77 2470.599377 308.8249221
176 106,689 378 787.11 106,279 2167.18 2476.775875 309.5969844
177 106,279 376 787.11 105,869 2172.60 2482.967815 310.3709768
178 105,869 375 787.11 105,456 2178.03 2489.175234 311.1469043
179 105,456 373 787.11 105,043 2183.47 2495.398172 311.9247715
180 105,043 372 787.11 104,628 2188.93 2501.636668 -5224.230899