Author Topic: Is 2018 the peak of the market?  (Read 5227 times)

andysandp

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Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« on: April 05, 2018, 01:59:56 PM »
How's the market this year in your area?  Is it still hot?  Or do you notice prices slowing down or flattening?

In Manhattan it looks like prices are flattening or coming down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/manhattan-home-sales-tumble-most-since-2009-as-buyers-push-back


cooking

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2018, 02:47:15 PM »
In NJ, prices are reportedly also flat to slightly down, but for different reasons (one of which is our ridiculously high property taxes)
http://observer.com/2018/04/nj-politics-digest-more-bad-news-states-homeowners/

(I apologize, I don't know how to make the above link live)

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2018, 09:19:09 AM »
Prices in the parts of Indiana I follow (Lake front Chicago suburbs and West Lafayette) seem to be continuing to climb at a good rate (up 10-20% over two years ago). Part of that may be Indiana benefiting from people leaving Illinois.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2018, 09:20:12 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

ketchup

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #4 on: April 10, 2018, 10:23:42 AM »
My area (Chicago suburbs) seems to be still rising a bit.  Everything seems at least a good 30% higher than when I bought in 2015.

afox

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #5 on: April 10, 2018, 11:27:17 AM »

Guizmo

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2018, 04:25:15 PM »
top is in?

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2018, 07:20:23 PM »

Mr. Green

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2018, 08:12:40 AM »
Prices are rising nice and steady on the MD side if the DC metro market. Here in Wilmington, NC the market is cranking. They can't build 'em fast enough and prices are rising.

DS

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Optimiser

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2018, 09:00:24 AM »
Prices are still rising in Oregon's Willamette Valley.

heybro

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2018, 05:40:09 PM »
There is so much building here where I live and places are selling well above asking price.  That sounds like an 'irrational' bubble to me!  There are so many large buildings going up that I see over-supply very soon!

StarBright

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2018, 10:38:38 AM »
Prices are rising nice and steady on the MD side if the DC metro market. Here in Wilmington, NC the market is cranking. They can't build 'em fast enough and prices are rising.

NC seems to be having a decent couple of years. We sold our house in the triangle last year and made a perfectly nice 15% after 5 years. I looked at the zillow value recently (which was spot on for our address when we sold) and it is up another 15% just in a year.

I love Wilmington and we're coming back a for a few days for a vacation this summer!

I'm a red panda

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2018, 11:13:26 AM »
Prices are rising here, but not ridiculously so, and construction is booming.


MayDay

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2018, 08:01:38 PM »
Twin cities MN seems to be going up but I don't have data.

In our area houses with 3+bedrooms and nothing weird sell super fast. There's a 2 bedroom with legit original 1950's stove (which although adorable is 0% practical and a full kitchen remodel is needed) that is sitting. All others seem to sell in a couple days.


sol

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2018, 08:27:45 PM »
It's still early in the season, but the trend thus far for the Seattle area is that prices are climbing while inventory is dropping.

Comparing March 2018 to March 2017, prices are up about 15%, the number of sales is about constant, and inventory is down about 15%.  It's a good time to be a homeowner.

County level details:  https://seattlebubble.com/blog/

Tuskalusa

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2018, 09:01:36 PM »
Silicon Valley continues to be insane.

dragoncar

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kenmoremmm

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2018, 10:53:57 AM »
It's still early in the season, but the trend thus far for the Seattle area is that prices are climbing while inventory is dropping.

Comparing March 2018 to March 2017, prices are up about 15%, the number of sales is about constant, and inventory is down about 15%.  It's a good time to be a homeowner.

County level details:  https://seattlebubble.com/blog/
i'm selling a rental soon (north seattle area). hope i don't regret it.

SeaWA

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2018, 10:56:42 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.


v8rx7guy

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2018, 11:12:23 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.


I'm talking about Whatcom county, the NW corner of WA, not Seattle. And it should be noted that "flattening" does not mean that it has completely stopped going up.

SeaWA

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2018, 11:41:57 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

I'm talking about Whatcom county, the NW corner of WA, not Seattle. And it should be noted that "flattening" does not mean that it has completely stopped going up.

Oh, I see. I was thinking that flattening meant that the rate of change was decreasing.

In that case, here is a time series chart for Bellingham, WA, in Whatcom County, the principle city in the NW corner of WA. I believe the chart presents sufficient information for me to assess the relative merits of data analysis vs. intuition.

I have put the two time series on the same chart in case one wondered if the Seattle and Bellingham markets were correlated.

nawhite

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2018, 02:52:19 PM »
In Denver, I think we're transitioning from A) values rising because the houses are more valuable due to higher rent potential, to B) rising because of speculation. The average rent to value numbers I've been seeing are dropping and are below 0.75% now where when we bought we had a 1% property easily. Rents aren't keeping up with home values anymore. I'd definitely say that rent top is in. If interest rates stay the same, I think that values would continue to go up for a while but interest rates are going up.

I'm selling this year, primarily because if I sell this year I can still take the Primary Residence capital gains exemption and next year I can't which will save me ~$20k. That said, I also don't think Denver has enough geographical constraints to make a speculation market like SF or NYC or even Seattle sustainable for very long.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2018, 07:53:57 PM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

I'm talking about Whatcom county, the NW corner of WA, not Seattle. And it should be noted that "flattening" does not mean that it has completely stopped going up.

Oh, I see. I was thinking that flattening meant that the rate of change was decreasing.

In that case, here is a time series chart for Bellingham, WA, in Whatcom County, the principle city in the NW corner of WA. I believe the chart presents sufficient information for me to assess the relative merits of data analysis vs. intuition.

I have put the two time series on the same chart in case one wondered if the Seattle and Bellingham markets were correlated.

I thought this thread was about 2018. 

AccountingForLife

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2018, 02:49:36 PM »
I hope so.

I live and work in a mostly rural area with a small town nearby, and since it is more of a vacation hotspot than anything else, the prices for even a small starter home are way out of line with reality. I also make a decent salary, but can't see myself buying something that's going to cost 50% of my takehome pay to get into the same thing I'm renting right now.

sol

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2018, 03:04:31 PM »
can't see myself buying something that's going to cost 50% of my takehome pay to get into the same thing I'm renting right now.

It all depends on future price appreciation.

If you're currently paying $1k/month for a place that would cost you $2k/mo to buy (mortgage, taxes, insurance, upkeep, etc), then by renting you're effectively pocketing $12k/year that you can invest in the stock market.  But if the property is appreciating at $20k/year, then you probably make more money in the intermediate term by biting the bullet and putting a big chunk of your net worth into the property.  In the very long run, stock markets seem to always outperform real estate (just because markets average ~9% and RE averages ~3%), but RE is often a better deal for the first 10 to 20 years in my simulations.

Of course it also depends on your relative income and the tax advantages of both plans in your particular situation.  Will the mortgage interest be deductible?  Can you put more into your 401k instead?  In most markets investing in real estate seems to make more sense after you've already maxed out your tax-advantaged investment accounts.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2018, 03:04:52 PM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

Not really a lot of data to go on, but short term on that chart you posted, it looks like each time the slope of price increase gets as steep as it is now, the market does flatten a bit or even drop.

sol

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2018, 03:12:02 PM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

Not really a lot of data to go on, but short term on that chart you posted, it looks like each time the slope of price increase gets as steep as it is now, the market does flatten a bit or even drop.

In my neck of the woods, prices are very seasonal.  They are typically flat or even slightly decreasing in the winter, and they rise rapidly each spring.  Frankly I'm surprised anyone around here sells a house in Jan-March, when they are worth 5-10% more in July-September.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2018, 02:24:45 PM »
data point:
-bought a townhouse in nov 2006 for $375k in seattle (about 1.25 years from peak, but it was slowing considerably).
-listed last week for $675k
- redfin showed 1000+ views, 130+ favorites, it was listed as a hot home
- had 28 groups view it via open house (sat-sun)
- one early offer (1st day after listing --- site-unseen) for $710k with $100k earnest $$
- received 7 bids at "bid review date" which was 1 week post listing
- bids were all in the low $700s with 5 bids escalating up to $750k
- reached out to agents to let them know of the situation (basically all equally qualified) and wanted to check if they wanted to go any higher.
- one went up to $780k, one went to $790k and we reached mutual agreement

so, $115k over list price (17%).

good times for irrational exuberance.

Lmoot

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #29 on: May 02, 2018, 04:13:23 PM »
Central FL prices have flattened. My house value peak (according to Zillow), peaked about 6 months ago and has been slightly decreasing every month or so...staying pretty much the same the last month.

uwp

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2018, 04:36:25 PM »
In my neck of the woods, prices are very seasonal.  They are typically flat or even slightly decreasing in the winter, and they rise rapidly each spring.  Frankly I'm surprised anyone around here sells a house in Jan-March, when they are worth 5-10% more in July-September.

I would assume most people are buying something else at the same time they are selling, so it would be mostly a wash.

uwp

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #31 on: May 02, 2018, 04:39:43 PM »
data point:
-bought a townhouse in nov 2006 for $375k in seattle (about 1.25 years from peak, but it was slowing considerably).
-listed last week for $675k
- redfin showed 1000+ views, 130+ favorites, it was listed as a hot home
- had 28 groups view it via open house (sat-sun)
- one early offer (1st day after listing --- site-unseen) for $710k with $100k earnest $$
- received 7 bids at "bid review date" which was 1 week post listing
- bids were all in the low $700s with 5 bids escalating up to $750k
- reached out to agents to let them know of the situation (basically all equally qualified) and wanted to check if they wanted to go any higher.
- one went up to $780k, one went to $790k and we reached mutual agreement

so, $115k over list price (17%).

good times for irrational exuberance.

Seattle insanity.  Good job by the agent to get 40k over the highest escalator.
I don't envy you shopping for another home in Seattle... or was it a rental?

sol

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #32 on: May 02, 2018, 05:02:19 PM »
I would assume most people are buying something else at the same time they are selling, so it would be mostly a wash.

That's not really how real estate prices work. 

Around here, people don't like to move in the rainy season.  For a fixed number of houses that are for sale at any given moment, you'll find lots more buyers in the spring than you will in the winter.  Some of them are moving up the ladder from rentals, and some (okay lots) are moving here from other parts of the country.  Some are just new people, born and raised here and now working and looking to live somewhere, but the supply of houses is significantly restricted.

This is essentially why the Seattle prices are so crazy.  There just aren't very many single family homes in Seattle, and yet the city is growing by tens of thousands of people per year.  Tens of thousands of new bedrooms and kitchens and parking spaces need to be built for them, and they can't built anywhere near that many SFRs so people end up forced into apartments or condos and competition is fierce for properties with updated kitchens, central locations, big yards and gardens, free parking and garages, and the other amenities that people in the suburbs typically take for granted when shopping for a new house.

kenmoremmm

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #33 on: May 02, 2018, 05:08:03 PM »
it was a rental property (primary from 2006-2014). i felt enough local and global headwinds that i wanted to jump out while it was still a feeding frenzy. all 7 bids were chinese if that matters to anyone (i know it does on the seattle bubble website)

uwp

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #34 on: May 02, 2018, 05:14:25 PM »
I would assume most people are buying something else at the same time they are selling, so it would be mostly a wash.

That's not really how real estate prices work. 


I'm not talking about prices.  I'm talking about the timing of a person selling/buying a home. 

You were "surprised" people sell their homes in the spring because they would gain 5-10% more in the fall.  But unless the theoretical market-timing seller is not replacing their home, they would just have to buy a more expensive home in the fall.

REIgal

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #35 on: May 02, 2018, 05:46:55 PM »
When interest rates rise people's purchasing power lessens, which is why the market is flattening a little.  It's normal.  What happened during the crash had a lot more to do with lending practices than it did with overheated home prices.  After the crash it was extremely difficult to get construction financing so there were less properties being build, which reduced supply.  The market recovered and there just haven't been enough houses available for people who want them, at least in Portland, OR.  I certainly don't think we are even close to the top here.  We won't continue to appreciate at 12% annually but that's not sustainable anyway. 

dragoncar

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2018, 03:18:28 AM »
Central FL prices have flattened. My house value peak (according to Zillow), peaked about 6 months ago and has been slightly decreasing every month or so...staying pretty much the same the last month.

What's central FL?  Looking at property in Orlando, but it's daunting because I have no idea how the market works.  Seems like there are million dollar houses next to $50k shacks.

Time on Market seems really high. Like it takes 6 months to a year to sell anything.  In my neck of the woods, anything sitting over a month is overpriced or shit.

SeaWA

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #37 on: May 11, 2018, 12:11:57 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

I'm talking about Whatcom county, the NW corner of WA, not Seattle. And it should be noted that "flattening" does not mean that it has completely stopped going up.

Oh, I see. I was thinking that flattening meant that the rate of change was decreasing.

In that case, here is a time series chart for Bellingham, WA, in Whatcom County, the principle city in the NW corner of WA. I believe the chart presents sufficient information for me to assess the relative merits of data analysis vs. intuition.

I have put the two time series on the same chart in case one wondered if the Seattle and Bellingham markets were correlated.

I thought this thread was about 2018.

??

If showing you where to find the data (available monthly), then plotting the data for your area, and Seattle isn't helpful, then perhaps your feelings really are the best guide for you!

:/

SeaWA

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #38 on: May 11, 2018, 12:14:03 AM »
My sense is that they are flattening in NW Washington.

Thank you to afox for the link to actual data.

I'm in Seattle. Here is a chart I created using the fhfa data that afox linked. It does not appear that the prices are flattening in NW Washington State.

Data source: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/pages/house-price-index.aspx
This chart is for the Seattle Metro Area only, not the whole country. YMMV. Download the data set for your own area. It may be more enlightening than your intuition.

Not really a lot of data to go on, but short term on that chart you posted, it looks like each time the slope of price increase gets as steep as it is now, the market does flatten a bit or even drop.

In my neck of the woods, prices are very seasonal.  They are typically flat or even slightly decreasing in the winter, and they rise rapidly each spring.  Frankly I'm surprised anyone around here sells a house in Jan-March, when they are worth 5-10% more in July-September.

Yep, I agree completely about seasonal buying. I wouldn't even consider buying in the spring/summer.

The chart I created and posted was annual, but the data is available month.

If you have access to the MLS you should plot the number of listings and closings by month. It tells you exactly when to look for a house!

Slow2FIRE

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #39 on: May 11, 2018, 02:41:16 PM »
In Denver, I think we're transitioning from A) values rising because the houses are more valuable due to higher rent potential, to B) rising because of speculation. The average rent to value numbers I've been seeing are dropping and are below 0.75% now where when we bought we had a 1% property easily. Rents aren't keeping up with home values anymore. I'd definitely say that rent top is in. If interest rates stay the same, I think that values would continue to go up for a while but interest rates are going up.

I'm selling this year, primarily because if I sell this year I can still take the Primary Residence capital gains exemption and next year I can't which will save me ~$20k. That said, I also don't think Denver has enough geographical constraints to make a speculation market like SF or NYC or even Seattle sustainable for very long.

Landlords in the area where we have a rental property (East Boulder county) keep on listing their rental homes too cheaply.  They get rented in about 24hrs of listing or less (some owners I talked to told me their house was rented in 3hrs of being listed!).  They just aren't interested in having a property listed for a week or two to get a proper price!  I consistently get $300-400 more per month on an equivalent property (we are talking >$2800 rent price range) because I am patient enough to not need it rented in less than a day.  I wish the other landlords would also consider taking greater profits as well.

jinga nation

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #40 on: May 15, 2018, 02:38:15 PM »
I dunno if top is in, here in Tampa Bay.

But at my new workplace, there are already a couple of people who are real estate agents as their 2nd job (and solicit for it in a federal workplace). Today overheard 4 or 5 people in one section are going for a realtor course.

Deja Vu of 2006-2007. Here we go again...

Kierun

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #41 on: May 15, 2018, 03:52:04 PM »
it was a rental property (primary from 2006-2014). i felt enough local and global headwinds that i wanted to jump out while it was still a feeding frenzy. all 7 bids were chinese if that matters to anyone (i know it does on the seattle bubble website)
So, it's not just here in Hawaii.  Foreign investors are eating up inventory and driving prices up.  :(

FrugalSaver

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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #42 on: May 15, 2018, 09:33:49 PM »
In Denver, I think we're transitioning from A) values rising because the houses are more valuable due to higher rent potential, to B) rising because of speculation. The average rent to value numbers I've been seeing are dropping and are below 0.75% now where when we bought we had a 1% property easily. Rents aren't keeping up with home values anymore. I'd definitely say that rent top is in. If interest rates stay the same, I think that values would continue to go up for a while but interest rates are going up.

I'm selling this year, primarily because if I sell this year I can still take the Primary Residence capital gains exemption and next year I can't which will save me ~$20k. That said, I also don't think Denver has enough geographical constraints to make a speculation market like SF or NYC or even Seattle sustainable for very long.

Landlords in the area where we have a rental property (East Boulder county) keep on listing their rental homes too cheaply.  They get rented in about 24hrs of listing or less (some owners I talked to told me their house was rented in 3hrs of being listed!).  They just aren't interested in having a property listed for a week or two to get a proper price!  I consistently get $300-400 more per month on an equivalent property (we are talking >$2800 rent price range) because I am patient enough to not need it rented in less than a day.  I wish the other landlords would also consider taking greater profits as well.

What was your general cost to acquire the property you're renting out for $2800 or more per month?

Shockers

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
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  • Age: 44
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Re: Is 2018 the peak of the market?
« Reply #43 on: May 25, 2018, 11:56:32 AM »
I heard a market analysis from an analyst response to the question of this topic the other day.  His response was that there are no indicators showing us of any trouble on the horizon.  His best guess when comparing our position in the market to a baseball game was that we are in about the 7th inning of this game.  He then went on to say that this game was a double header and we still have a long way to run.  He then went on to show how other markets than our own have shown cycles of "slow" growth over extended periods of time.  Some time frames 20-25 years.