This is a very interesting method, thanks for sharing. I've been thinking about this type approach but trying to determine the best starting and ending percentages for said buckets... this helps. I do think this model would be good mentally for me during those first few years of FIRE, knowing I wouldn't be touching stocks at all and having a plan in place to mitigate the early sequence of returns risk. Will have to do some modeling around what works best for me, curious to see what others think!
From the article: "Of course, in a scenario where a retiree is following a rising equity glidepath, and it turns out market returns are good – and the client suddenly winds up with far more wealth than ever anticipated – there’s always an option to change paths at that point, whether by bringing spending up or by taking equity risk off the table. Though technically they’ll be so far ahead that a rising equity glidepath isn’t a “risk” (i.e., even with a bear market, they’re far enough ahead with few enough years remaining that there’s no more failure risk), certainly some clients will decide that after a great bull market that changes their planning outlook and ability to achieve their goals, it may be prudent to get more conservative at that point. But for clients who go through a poor market in the early years, the rising equity glidepath becomes key to being able to sustain through the second half of retirement when the good returns finally arrive (in case the double-digit earnings yields on equities aren’t enticing enough at that point!). In other words, the rising equity glidepath becomes “heads you win, tails you don’t lose” (and in the latter scenarios, the client can change to whatever they want later instead)."
