Author Topic: PC Retirement calculator?  (Read 1002 times)

vagavince

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PC Retirement calculator?
« on: October 19, 2018, 11:15:18 PM »
Does anyone use personal capital retirement calculator?

The number is very different from 4% number that I been using. Putting in 4% number only give a 30% success rate.

Why is the number so different? How much trust should I place in the PC retirement calculator?

Threshkin

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Re: PC Retirement calculator?
« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2018, 10:20:27 PM »
I use PC and also plugged my data into their retirement calculator when it first came out.  It is fairly simplistic compared to FIREcalc or cFIREsim but it is better than some other calculators out there.  I provided feedback on the initial version of the PC calculator directly to the developers.

If your numbers are way off, you should double check your data and assumptions on both systems.  Something is wrong.

That said PC is one of those calculators that will never give you 100%.  Even if your WR is crazy low, <1% for example, it will not give you better than 99%.  This is just the way they hedge for the future being uncertain.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: PC Retirement calculator?
« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2018, 11:52:29 PM »
Putting in 4% number only give a 30% success rate.
To get a 30% success rate in Vanguard's calculator, I had to:
* use a 50 year retirement time frame
* only allocate 7% stocks, and 93% bonds

Switch that to 60% stocks / 40% bonds and the success rate goes up to 80% (for 50 years, for 30 years that would be 91% successful).  You can run those same numbers yourself here:
https://www.vanguard.com/nesteggcalculator

What criteria did you use for the software to spit out a 30% chance of the 4% withdrawal approach working?