Author Topic: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?  (Read 7856 times)

BTDretire

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I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

Gone Fishing

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2017, 08:01:42 PM »
Absolutely! Maybe as much as 3-5x as much if all goes well.  Hopefully the stache will peak around 60-65 (years old), then bleed off from there.  If it doesn't inflation will take an awfully big bit out of my spending power.  Even inflation adjusted, I hope (and have planned) to have a bit more spending power as I age.

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2017, 09:15:52 PM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)
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Spork

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2017, 09:22:30 AM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)

So... you're probably right.  And I'm just as guilty.  We pretty much spend about what the earnings are on our investments.  Outside of a black swan event, I think we'll have way more than we need.  And yeah, it's due to being overly conservative on my FIRE date.

But... this also fits my personality.  While it would be optimal to spend your last $10 on the day you take your dying breath, I wouldn't be comfortable doing this.  My sister is about to retire on a plan that's really tight.  That would make my butt pucker.
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MasterStache

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2017, 09:31:25 AM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)


So... you're probably right.  And I'm just as guilty.  We pretty much spend about what the earnings are on our investments.  Outside of a black swan event, I think we'll have way more than we need.  And yeah, it's due to being overly conservative on my FIRE date.

But... this also fits my personality.  While it would be optimal to spend your last $10 on the day you take your dying breath, I wouldn't be comfortable doing this.  My sister is about to retire on a plan that's really tight.  That would make my butt pucker.

You need some of this:


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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2017, 09:37:07 AM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)


So... you're probably right.  And I'm just as guilty.  We pretty much spend about what the earnings are on our investments.  Outside of a black swan event, I think we'll have way more than we need.  And yeah, it's due to being overly conservative on my FIRE date.

But... this also fits my personality.  While it would be optimal to spend your last $10 on the day you take your dying breath, I wouldn't be comfortable doing this.  My sister is about to retire on a plan that's really tight.  That would make my butt pucker.

You need some of this:



That'll at least divert your attention away from finances for a while.
Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
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checkedoutat39

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2017, 10:36:11 AM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

Yes, and I figure this is what should happen if you're doing it right.

FIRECalc shows results in terms of current dollars. It adjusts for inflation, but on both the asset side and the spending side. So when it says you'll have $800K starting from $500K or whatever, that's $800K current dollars. So inflation should make your balance even more likely to be higher, albeit in nominal terms.

esskay1000

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2017, 03:40:25 AM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

BTDretire

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2017, 07:10:18 AM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)

 Wrong for you.
  I'm quite content knowing that I will have more income than I need.
 Also, I have lived at 72% of median income, ($40k / $56k), as is done by a
large percentage of the population. I find it comforting to know I can live*
at median income and above.

* healthcare costs could mess up everyone's calculation.

Spork

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2017, 08:19:21 AM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

Just a warning from someone that is a couple of years ahead of you:  I also waited for 100%.  I think that's probably way too high.  Statistically the difference between 95% and 100% is infinitesimally small.  And remember that 100% isn't 100%. That's 100% of past cases.  It makes chances very good of succeeding in the future, but it makes no 100% guarantees.

I'm looking back and thinking I could have retired several years earlier and had a higher retirement spending rate.

That probably won't dissuade your fears of taking the leap.  I doubt it would have me.  But I think you'll look back and realize you went longer than needed.  There will always be unknown factors.
Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight

esskay1000

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2017, 12:24:02 PM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

Just a warning from someone that is a couple of years ahead of you:  I also waited for 100%.  I think that's probably way too high.  Statistically the difference between 95% and 100% is infinitesimally small.  And remember that 100% isn't 100%. That's 100% of past cases.  It makes chances very good of succeeding in the future, but it makes no 100% guarantees.

I'm looking back and thinking I could have retired several years earlier and had a higher retirement spending rate.

That probably won't dissuade your fears of taking the leap.  I doubt it would have me.  But I think you'll look back and realize you went longer than needed.  There will always be unknown factors.

Thanks for that input Spork. I realize you're probably correct, but as even you said, you doubt it would have changed your own decision. Damn it's so hard to make that leap. I come from a tiny family that literally has next to nothing, so I also don't have that "if the crap REALLY hit the fan I could get help from mom" kinda thing. I can't.  And I'm single on top of it (my own fault :/

It's mainly the healthcare. Talking to a coworker today, her son broke both tibia and fibula (like Joe Theisman) playing football. Two surgeries, tons of metal inserted, etc etc. Now he has compartment syndrom and has to have the harware taken out. Bottom line, she said the running tally on the med bills (before insurance) is $360k.  Just, wow.  And he's not done.  It just makes me shake thinking our politicians could eff us over - even after we supposedly buy something like ACA or whatever.  I just have to keep working through the doubt....

By the way, love your message tag-line. Probably my second favorite Rush song after Spirit of the Radio.

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2017, 03:32:24 PM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

Just a warning from someone that is a couple of years ahead of you:  I also waited for 100%.  I think that's probably way too high.  Statistically the difference between 95% and 100% is infinitesimally small.  And remember that 100% isn't 100%. That's 100% of past cases.  It makes chances very good of succeeding in the future, but it makes no 100% guarantees.

I'm looking back and thinking I could have retired several years earlier and had a higher retirement spending rate.

That probably won't dissuade your fears of taking the leap.  I doubt it would have me.  But I think you'll look back and realize you went longer than needed.  There will always be unknown factors.

Thanks for that input Spork. I realize you're probably correct, but as even you said, you doubt it would have changed your own decision. Damn it's so hard to make that leap. I come from a tiny family that literally has next to nothing, so I also don't have that "if the crap REALLY hit the fan I could get help from mom" kinda thing. I can't.  And I'm single on top of it (my own fault :/

It's mainly the healthcare. Talking to a coworker today, her son broke both tibia and fibula (like Joe Theisman) playing football. Two surgeries, tons of metal inserted, etc etc. Now he has compartment syndrom and has to have the harware taken out. Bottom line, she said the running tally on the med bills (before insurance) is $360k.  Just, wow.  And he's not done.  It just makes me shake thinking our politicians could eff us over - even after we supposedly buy something like ACA or whatever.  I just have to keep working through the doubt....

No one can guess where healthcare will go.  But ... that said, I've had high deductible plans before and after ACA.  While the stated cost of the plans was hugely different... my cost was pretty much the same.  (I.e., after ACA, the premiums went way way up and then were subsidized back to where they started). 

One sort of hidden side of high deductible plans... even with ridiculous deductibles, the insurance companies have negotiated the prices way down.  I've had a handful of things done that were billed at $10k+ ... and my cost was a few hundred.

By the way, love your message tag-line. Probably my second favorite Rush song after Spirit of the Radio.

They're all my favorite.  I'm a bit fanatical.
Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight

esskay1000

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2017, 04:11:04 PM »
Thanks again for the input Spork! Nothing helps as much as info from someone who's there and has the t-shirt to prove it.  If you don't mind me asking, how much do you pay for your ACA plan out of pocket?

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2017, 04:18:16 PM »
Thanks again for the input Spork! Nothing helps as much as info from someone who's there and has the t-shirt to prove it.  If you don't mind me asking, how much do you pay for your ACA plan out of pocket?

Out of pocket for this year is ~200/month for a ACA bronze plan for a family of 2 - one in 50s one in 40s.  It varies wildly by location... and by what insurance providers are around.  You have to plan a bit to hit your income targets to get the subsidies you are expecting.  We blew it last year when we had unexpected income and had to pay all of 2016 subsidies back.  Without subsidies, last years was just under $600/month.
Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight

esskay1000

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2017, 04:25:15 PM »
Thanks again for the input Spork! Nothing helps as much as info from someone who's there and has the t-shirt to prove it.  If you don't mind me asking, how much do you pay for your ACA plan out of pocket?

Out of pocket for this year is ~200/month for a ACA bronze plan for a family of 2 - one in 50s one in 40s.  It varies wildly by location... and by what insurance providers are around.  You have to plan a bit to hit your income targets to get the subsidies you are expecting.  We blew it last year when we had unexpected income and had to pay all of 2016 subsidies back.  Without subsidies, last years was just under $600/month.

Thanks again Spork, I need to start getting on that website and running real numbers

Frankies Girl

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2017, 05:58:31 PM »
I totally expect our portfolio to be insanely high in 30 years. I'll actually be pretty shocked if it isn't multi-millions in 10 years.

We FIREd ~95% success rate in CFIREsim/FIREcalc, likely could have done so earlier, but was still figuring out all the angles and learning about basic investing and money management/tax optimization to help make me much more confident in the decision. Finances and investing were not intuitive for me, and I had to start from scratch basically around 2012 when this became possible.

As far as health insurance, I live in a pretty large metro city and for two adults in their early 40s, we pay $240/month for a silver plan, but it is an EPO, which is basically a closed system health provider. Luckily, it is offered by a really cool non-profit health insurance group, and I was already familiar with the actual health provider system, having used it happily for decades in the past (and was bumped off of it by a change in work-provided insurance - I remember being pretty upset about losing them!).

The insurance company (being a non-profit) is very into keeping costs contained and keeping their clients informed. I don't see them pulling out of the market or attempting to raise their rates sky-high in the event the ACA implodes.

I can adjust our actual income easily, so I made sure to keep it under a certain threshold to get the cost-sharing benefits AND optimum subsidy. What this means is that in our case, our silver level plan actually has more perks than most gold plans - it's a platinum plated-silver. Zero deductible, all doc visits are $15, $15 lab work, max out of pocket is like $4K for family per year... lots of other really amazing things that I likely (hopefully) will not have to take advantage of, but are there if needed. Without the subsidy, we'd be paying ~$700/month for both of us, the deductible would go up to like $4K and max out of pocket up to $10K, with the other things like copays and such scaling upwards as well.

Still technically in our budget, but would be great if we could keep the same basic coverage for a bit less than that.

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2017, 06:31:35 PM »
The thing about the 4% rule is that by guaranteeing you won't run out of money in 30 years even in the worst case, you're setting yourself up for a lot of portfolio growth in the average case. I think the defaults in cFIREsim has the retiree being up at least 60% more often than not. In many cases you'll end up with at least twice what you started with.
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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2017, 06:33:57 PM »
I have no desire to retire until I have an extremely high probability my funds continue to grow.  Hope by using 3% withdrawal rate that happens.  I'd most likely return to work if my accounts continued to drop over time.
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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2017, 10:56:08 PM »
I expect our net worth will increase during retirement.   (That's assuming our calculations are correct, of course. :) )

We're setting things up so we don't actually need our stock portfolio for our regular expenses.   
We'll be using SS, farm income and rental property income as our base living amount.

So our stock portfolio should generally be able to keep growing in good times and bad.  That really reduces the sequence of returns risk! 

Some of you would say that we waited too long, but that's not really true. 

1/3 of that income didn't start until 2015, 1/3 showed up in 2016, and the remaining 1/3 started 3 days ago.

We didn't really understand how to live off of stocks and how the whole mechanism works until we found MMM and JL Collins 4 years ago.   And, as we all know, just because you've been exposed to the math doesn't mean you're ready to toss your salary to the winds the next day.  It takes some time to double-check what you've just learned and feel comfortable with the decision.

So, technically speaking, we could declare FI and retire today.  And we probably should.

But we're going for OMY and will retire in April of next year.   We have a lot of cash outflow over the next year ($100k to $150k) as we flip a house for fun (and hopefully some profit).   Plus another 15k to renovate 2 rental houses to get them on the market.  That's a significant enough outlay that we're choosing to stay employed for a year to fund it.

 

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2017, 01:28:59 PM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)

By the way, my post above wasn't intended to make fun of others.

I also struggle with the decision of "how much is enough".

It's hard to calculate with 100% certainty, where you'll stand 30 years from today. 
Your monetary future could lie anywhere between,
1.  Living your last years in poverty.
2.  Dying with a vast sum of money.

For me, point 2 almost disturbs me as much as point 1. 
Why?  Because this means that I worked (i.e. wasted) 'x' years longer in a (stressful) job than I really needed to. 
Those additional 'x' years could have been spent doing those things that I enjoy more.

However, I definitely understand OMY (One More Year) syndrome and people wanting to "make sure" that they have a secure future going forward.

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esskay1000

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2017, 03:12:51 PM »
How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?

You're doing it wrong.

This means, you should have retired 10 years ago.  :)

By the way, my post above wasn't intended to make fun of others.

I also struggle with the decision of "how much is enough".

It's hard to calculate with 100% certainty, where you'll stand 30 years from today. 
Your monetary future could lie anywhere between,
1.  Living your last years in poverty.
2.  Dying with a vast sum of money.

For me, point 2 almost disturbs me as much as point 1. 
Why?  Because this means that I worked (i.e. wasted) 'x' years longer in a (stressful) job than I really needed to. 
Those additional 'x' years could have been spent doing those things that I enjoy more.

However, I definitely understand OMY (One More Year) syndrome and people wanting to "make sure" that they have a secure future going forward.

You're right avrex, but I would suggest a different take on things if option #2 happens (having lots of money left).   You're correct, it would show that you "timed the exit" wrong. But just like timing the market is a fools game, timing a perfect FIRE to have "just enough" is also impossible. For me, if #2 occurs, I'll just realize that yes, I worked longer than I needed to. But I can't live the rest of my days regretting the past, that's kinda toxic. I would realize it happened, there's nothing I can do about it now, and use all that money to do good in the world. I'd go crazy giving to charities, starting up cool foundations, going to Africa and giving to the poorest of the poor, and try my best to turn a bad timing decision into as much good as possible.

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2017, 03:27:56 PM »
Good question.  I'm planning to retire right at the top of this bull market, so I'd be happy with having close to what I started with after 20 years.  Then SS would kick in if needed, which covers a lot of my budget and give the portfolio a large nudge upward.  Of course the larger health bills could start kicking in as well, so who knows.  I hope I get find out which charities get my large donation.
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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2017, 09:23:34 PM »
We fully expect that our NW will grow significantly in retirement, primarily because between DH's defined benefit plan and estimated SS, we will be pulling in more than DH earns now.. That's not counting mandatory withdrawals from our retirement accounts. Or rental income. Wow! I see cruises to exotic locales, fancy cars and more fast shiny things in our future. Nah, just kidding. Most of the "extra" will go to our favorite charities.
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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2017, 10:36:20 PM »
....I'd go crazy giving to charities, starting up cool foundations, going to Africa and giving to the poorest of the poor, and try my best to turn a bad timing decision into as much good as possible.

I like this.  You are correct.

If you have excess funds, this is the way to handle this 'problem'. 
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dude

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #24 on: April 18, 2017, 08:41:05 AM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

Just a warning from someone that is a couple of years ahead of you:  I also waited for 100%.  I think that's probably way too high.  Statistically the difference between 95% and 100% is infinitesimally small.  And remember that 100% isn't 100%. That's 100% of past cases.  It makes chances very good of succeeding in the future, but it makes no 100% guarantees.

I'm looking back and thinking I could have retired several years earlier and had a higher retirement spending rate.

That probably won't dissuade your fears of taking the leap.  I doubt it would have me.  But I think you'll look back and realize you went longer than needed.  There will always be unknown factors.

I'm already at 100%, but that's because my FIRE plan relies on a good (not great) government pension. So theoretically, I could stop maxing out my 401k now ($32,000/year w/ match + catch ups) and spend more. But for starters, I'd pay more to the tax man if I did, and second, I just don't need to spend more money than I already do now. It would only inflate my lifestyle and make FIRE a downgrade.  So better for me to keep pumping that cash away while waiting it out two more years for that brass ring. Every FIREcalc run I do tells me the median balance of my account after 30 years will be @$3.2 mil (and possibly as high as $8 mil). That will make a nice chunk of change for my alma mater and favored charities when I die (I have no kids).

dude

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2017, 08:49:45 AM »
We fully expect that our NW will grow significantly in retirement, primarily because between DH's defined benefit plan and estimated SS, we will be pulling in more than DH earns now.. That's not counting mandatory withdrawals from our retirement accounts. Or rental income. Wow! I see cruises to exotic locales, fancy cars and more fast shiny things in our future. Nah, just kidding. Most of the "extra" will go to our favorite charities.

Yeah, that's my situation as well.  When SS kicks in, I'll have more discretionary income than I ever did while working.  Kinda weird and exciting, and I've got to figure out how to come to terms with it with respect to spending more in the gap years between 54 (when I retire) and SS age (I'm planning to wait until 70).  And I haven't even factored in real estate appreciation. Chances are, our place will be worth a shitload 10-20 years from now (it's already nearly 40% higher than when we bought 10 years ago, and I think we're on a San Francisco type real estate growth curve in this area). Nice problem to have for sure, just hope everything pans out and I live long enough to really appreciate the fruits of my labors!

Liberty Stache

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #26 on: April 18, 2017, 01:40:35 PM »
We fully expect to have more than what we need both when we initial "retire" and at end of life for two reasons:

1) We want to do good in the world (charities, etc). Every time someone spends, invests, or gives to charity $1, a vote is being cast. The more $$$ you have, the more votes you have to change the world how you see fit (more production lines for F150s? a hospital in rural Africa? etc)

2) Health care in the US is a clusterfcuk, we'd rather have an extra cushion for this large unknown. If we need it great, we've planned for it, if we don't, see bullet #1

Lastly, I truly enjoy many aspects of business and can't see myself not 'producing' in some fashion in 'retirement'.
"Sloth, like rust, consumes faster than labor wears, while the used key is always bright" ~Benjamin Franklin, The Way to Wealth

Finances_With_Purpose

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #27 on: April 18, 2017, 05:26:36 PM »
If my monthy spending stays as predicted, which is speculative of course, FIRECalc says I'm 100% success. I'm trying to pull the trigger and go but the healthcare debacle and unknown future debacle has me worried to death. I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes, and I was at the facility maybe 5 hours which included the waiting and filling out forms. The cost?  $12,000.  With my current insurance I paid $175 co-pay (I think, I'm already getting bills of course since our systems are so f'ed up), but yeah.  Twelve grand.

I'm trying to go part time first to ease myself into FIRE, build up my stache even more, and keep my healthcare while the whole soap-opera plays out.  As someone who thrives on 'extreme' outdoor sports and wants to do more of them in FIRE, my chances of injury are likely higher than others, and I need good healthcare.

Just a warning from someone that is a couple of years ahead of you:  I also waited for 100%.  I think that's probably way too high.  Statistically the difference between 95% and 100% is infinitesimally small.  And remember that 100% isn't 100%. That's 100% of past cases.  It makes chances very good of succeeding in the future, but it makes no 100% guarantees.

I'm looking back and thinking I could have retired several years earlier and had a higher retirement spending rate.

That probably won't dissuade your fears of taking the leap.  I doubt it would have me.  But I think you'll look back and realize you went longer than needed.  There will always be unknown factors.

You two are talking about where I'm at.  I'm aiming at 5% withdrawal, which isn't 100%, but I figure that (1) it's likely I'll keep doing money-generating things even with FI, such as some contract/consultant work I enjoy.  With that said, medical and unexpected medical are my largest concerns.  I've spent $3k so far this year on unexpected dental, and spent almost $5k on it a couple of years ago--enough to blow my rate out of the water if I weren't able to use current income. 

Still, I figure we'll adjust to circumstances, even if there's a big expense, so I'm sticking with 5% and planning to "retire" much sooner than if we went the super-safe route.  In the worst case, we'd have to come up with some income for a year or two if we had a huge expense to cover the difference and get back on track: that still beats the heck out of working another 2-5 years at jobs we could do without.

Who knows...it may well depend upon my job and how much I like it come trigger time; if I'm doing something I love (I'm currently transitioning into a new gig), then I may well stick it out another year or so, or do part-time, especially if I can do it remotely and travel or something.  Looking forward to a bright future, either way...

deborah

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #28 on: April 18, 2017, 09:17:56 PM »
It's a sure thing. I have a LOT more than when I retired and I'm more than 20% of the way there.

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2017, 05:48:26 AM »
This is a very interesting topic. We fully intend on drawing our stash down in the "gap years" between early FIRE and conventional retirement age. SS will kick in around that time and my wifey will get a nice pension greatly boosting our savings. So we could conceivably have more, but it just really depends on so many variables. 

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #30 on: April 19, 2017, 10:06:22 AM »
I've already projected this on a spreadsheet (maybe not the whole 30 years)\

Even though we have a solid pension and some SS, I don't like being dependent on them. They could change at any time. But if all goes as planned we'll have the personal nest egg up to $500k or so in 10 years. That's breathing room.
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JustGettingStarted1980

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #31 on: April 19, 2017, 10:29:40 AM »
I just had a minor knee surgery (arthroscopic). It was outpatient, the doc was literally inside my knee for 10 minutes

Sorry, but this is a pet peeve. That Orthopedic Surgeon likely graduated in the top 5% of his High School class, spent 4 years of Undergrad, 4 years of Medical School, and at least 5 years of Residency training so that he can learn how to only spend 10 minutes in your knee to fix your problem [more time in your knee = more arthritis later].  While spending all these years in training, he likely racked up oodles and oodles of student loan debt while working for nearly free for about 80-100 hours a week AND lost over a decade in compounding that would have occurred if he just became a banker or (gasp!) healthcare administrator instead.

In summary....Pay the Man.

Cobaka

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #32 on: April 19, 2017, 01:51:50 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

Eric

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #33 on: April 19, 2017, 05:02:35 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

3 years isn't long enough to know, but where you stand after 10 years is a solid predictor:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/
"Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."  -- Einstein

dude

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #34 on: April 20, 2017, 08:13:39 AM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

3 years isn't long enough to know, but where you stand after 10 years is a solid predictor:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/

Great article, Eric, thanks for sharing.  Given this, I wonder how many soon-to-be retirees are considering changing their equity allocations to more heavily weight international and emerging markets stocks?  There are some notable names suggesting U.S. equity returns will be less than historical averages over the next decade, and the Shiller P/E 10 seems to support that notion. The S&P 500 is at 28.78 currently, which is far, far above the historic median of 16.12. 

As a guy who plans to retire in 2 years, I'm thinking it might be time to make the change in equity allocation.

Here's a pretty good resource re: valuations and 10-year expected returns:

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation/equities.html

Gone Fishing

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #35 on: July 11, 2017, 03:20:55 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

3 years isn't long enough to know, but where you stand after 10 years is a solid predictor:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/

Great article, Eric, thanks for sharing.  Given this, I wonder how many soon-to-be retirees are considering changing their equity allocations to more heavily weight international and emerging markets stocks?  There are some notable names suggesting U.S. equity returns will be less than historical averages over the next decade, and the Shiller P/E 10 seems to support that notion. The S&P 500 is at 28.78 currently, which is far, far above the historic median of 16.12. 

As a guy who plans to retire in 2 years, I'm thinking it might be time to make the change in equity allocation.

Here's a pretty good resource re: valuations and 10-year expected returns:

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation/equities.html

I'm weighted more heavily towards EM and international than most here.  To date it has cost me money vs the S&P.  If I extrapolated out over the next 50 years, it would probably make me sick.  Here's hoping the article it right.

LAGuy

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #36 on: July 11, 2017, 04:30:51 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

3 years isn't long enough to know, but where you stand after 10 years is a solid predictor:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/

Great article, Eric, thanks for sharing.  Given this, I wonder how many soon-to-be retirees are considering changing their equity allocations to more heavily weight international and emerging markets stocks?  There are some notable names suggesting U.S. equity returns will be less than historical averages over the next decade, and the Shiller P/E 10 seems to support that notion. The S&P 500 is at 28.78 currently, which is far, far above the historic median of 16.12. 

As a guy who plans to retire in 2 years, I'm thinking it might be time to make the change in equity allocation.

Here's a pretty good resource re: valuations and 10-year expected returns:

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation/equities.html

I'm weighted more heavily towards EM and international than most here.  To date it has cost me money vs the S&P.  If I extrapolated out over the next 50 years, it would probably make me sick.  Here's hoping the article it right.

Then you're looking at WAY too short of a time frame. EM hasn't done nearly as well at the S&P 500 over the past few months, but last year it had a spectacular run. Developed international, especially Europe has matched and in some cases exceeded the US markets for about the past year. Unless you've been buying hedged currency funds. In which case I would ask why you'd be doing that with a strong dollar? Besides instead of hedging your international allocation, just reduce your % (buy more domestic). Same thing effectively.

I'm 40% international including EM and I could not be happier with the performance of them all so far. My EM is up only like 6% over the past 6 or 8 months...no where near as good as the S&P 500. But you know what? 6% in that time frame ain't bad at all!

Gone Fishing

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #37 on: July 11, 2017, 06:01:59 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

You all should, by calculating the real growth in whatever you are invested in for stocks is about 6% per year. I would start tracking your investments monthly and be sure to include costs or money you take out and after three years; you should be able to project where you will be because you will know how you behave financially, most people do not change.

3 years isn't long enough to know, but where you stand after 10 years is a solid predictor:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/understanding-sequence-of-return-risk-safe-withdrawal-rates-bear-market-crashes-and-bad-decades/

Great article, Eric, thanks for sharing.  Given this, I wonder how many soon-to-be retirees are considering changing their equity allocations to more heavily weight international and emerging markets stocks?  There are some notable names suggesting U.S. equity returns will be less than historical averages over the next decade, and the Shiller P/E 10 seems to support that notion. The S&P 500 is at 28.78 currently, which is far, far above the historic median of 16.12. 

As a guy who plans to retire in 2 years, I'm thinking it might be time to make the change in equity allocation.

Here's a pretty good resource re: valuations and 10-year expected returns:

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation/equities.html

I'm weighted more heavily towards EM and international than most here.  To date it has cost me money vs the S&P.  If I extrapolated out over the next 50 years, it would probably make me sick.  Here's hoping the article it right.

Then you're looking at WAY too short of a time frame. EM hasn't done nearly as well at the S&P 500 over the past few months, but last year it had a spectacular run. Developed international, especially Europe has matched and in some cases exceeded the US markets for about the past year. Unless you've been buying hedged currency funds. In which case I would ask why you'd be doing that with a strong dollar? Besides instead of hedging your international allocation, just reduce your % (buy more domestic). Same thing effectively.

I'm 40% international including EM and I could not be happier with the performance of them all so far. My EM is up only like 6% over the past 6 or 8 months...no where near as good as the S&P 500. But you know what? 6% in that time frame ain't bad at all!

I've been overweighted for 5+ years...

Mr. Green

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #38 on: July 12, 2017, 07:09:47 AM »
I absolutely expect to have more, based on the chances of success our portfolio has using cfiresim. To me, the notion of that being "you retired to late" is just another safety net. Our $1 million on our early 30's could easily be $10 million+ (in today's dollars) by the time we die, assuming we live long lives.
FIRE, Take Two.

spokey doke

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #39 on: July 12, 2017, 02:45:15 PM »
cfiresim has us ending up with somewhere between 500K and 30M...with that kind of variance, and the fact that we don't know what the future holds, I'm not into making such a prediction about whether we have more or less...
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marty998

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #40 on: July 12, 2017, 03:40:20 PM »
cfiresim has us ending up with somewhere between 500K and 30M...with that kind of variance, and the fact that we don't know what the future holds, I'm not into making such a prediction about whether we have more or less...

That's a rather large range.... what caused the extreme $30m gain?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #41 on: July 12, 2017, 09:20:49 PM »
Well, my handle is 'EscapeVelocity' so I guess I'm in this camp!  What I find interesting is that there is a cut-off between expenses (and associated taxes and inflation (general, situational/generational (cell phone, internet), personal - indexed to local COL, expected lifestyle, and 'personal situation' (medical, family, extended family...))) // and net worth (income yield / side hustle, efficient after-tax and Roth funds, pre-tax penalized funds, selling hard assets, loans against assets, credit) that makes the 4% rule more or less relevant.  But as long as the 4% rule is properly adjusted or relevant, and you are retired at, say, 3% SWR, then of course you will be significantly wealthier as time goes on.
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

spokey doke

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #42 on: July 13, 2017, 08:58:42 AM »
cfiresim has us ending up with somewhere between 500K and 30M...with that kind of variance, and the fact that we don't know what the future holds, I'm not into making such a prediction about whether we have more or less...

That's a rather large range.... what caused the extreme $30m gain?

History (or different historical returns)...that what the model uses
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arebelspy

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #43 on: September 12, 2017, 09:40:36 PM »
Pretty much anyone retiring on a 4% WR should have a much higher stache 30 years later.

I expect my stache to continue to grow in retirement.

Everything below is quoting a previous post I made on the subject.



Your net worth pretty much darn well better go up in FIRE, most of the time, if you don't want to head for ER failure.

One big reason: Inflation.  If your numbers aren't going up (which is a nominal amount), your portfolio won't be able to keep up as your expenses inevitably rise.

Sure, some years it might step back a bit (I mean, you are withdrawing roughly 4% of the value, and sometimes market gains are meh, or negative), but the overall trend should be up.  And most cFIREsim runs have the lines going up and to the right--your portfolio gaining value (and that IS in real dollars, so gaining massively in nominal dollars)--as your portfolio gains vastly outstrip your withdrawals.

In fact, I'd consider it a huge red flag if it's not growing most years, or hasn't after a number of years (unless it grew for awhile, but there was suddenly a crash--that's fine, and normal, and to be expected, and it will come back... but if it's not growing at all, it's something to keep an eye on).

Here's a whole thread from earlier this year asking "Has your networth grown since you Fired?"

In it, the OP asked:
How common, do you think it is for your net worth to continue to grow after retiring early?

So I ran some cFIREsim numbers to get hard data on how common that would have been, historically.

Very, very common.

The longer your ER, and more aggressive your investment strategy (i.e. more equities), the more likely it is.

For example, using cFIREsim default numbers (40k spend, 1MM portfolio for a 4% SWR, 75/25 allocation, 30 year retirement--95.69% success rate), out of 116 total 30-year periods, after 30 years:
In nominal dollars, 19 of them ended with less than the 1,000,000 you started with.  97 ended with more.
In real (inflation adjusted dollars), 41 ended with less, 75 ended with more.

So if you're just looking at straight dollar amounts (which most of us tend to do, we don't naturally, intuitively discount for inflation), about 84% of the time your portfolio would have risen (and, in real dollars, 65% of the time it would have risen).

That's with you spending down on it year after year, not earning another dollar, not adjusting your withdrawals down in bad years (down markets) or as you get older and spend less.

The majority of the time, portfolios go up if you're using a 4% WR and have a decent (> 33%) amount in equities, with us doing nothing (and we tend to do something if things start going wrong).

If my net worth wasn't growing (not every year, but over multi-year periods), I'd look at that as a caution sign to take a closer look.

(Emphasis added.)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with a kid.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (occasionally) blog at AdventuringAlong.com.
You can also read my forum "Journal."

Finances_With_Purpose

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #44 on: September 12, 2017, 10:21:09 PM »
I have run Firecalc many times.
It says my chances of having more money 30 years after retirement than at retirement is very high.
Do others expect to have more 30 years after retirement than at retirement?

Absolutely.  I plan conservatively.  I like to plan.  I like goals.  And I like being productive...I am the guy who commits to too much if he isn't extremely careful.  I also love starting things, running things, and so on.  So I suspect I'll find some highly profitable uses of my time in early retirement, maybe even a whole new career.  (If I could figure out now what it would be, I'd simply do it now.)  In fact, I just started a financial planning business as a side gig (my current gig makes a great complement for it) and could easily imagine carrying that on through an early retirement.

Life's too short!  I'd love to do all of these things.  And travel all over in an RV, too: why not? 

But one thing at a time: first, we have to actually reach our financial goals...

onewayfamily

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Re: How many here expect to have a bigger stache 30 years after retiring?
« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2017, 08:40:59 AM »
Being a couple of 2 industrious young individuals, I see almost no chance that our stash won't continue to grow in retirement (it certainly has so far but it's only been about a year so not even close to a proper sample size.

Also, we (and a lot of others on this board) don't even use the 4% rule as we're not solely invested in the stock market with bonds - we have stock, real estate, P2P and other investments.

We're also relatively cautious, so we basically try only to spend our portfolio earnings, rather than eating into any principal at all, which obviously all but guarantees that our stash will increase over time (barring any massive capital losses).
We FIRE'd at age 28 (me) and 29 (Mrs. OneWayFamily) and are now trying to travel to every country on Earth - it takes longer with 2 toddlers!

If you'd like to keep track of where we're at - check out our photos @ Instagram or our lame attempt at a blog at onewayfamily.com