Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 549577 times)

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4300 on: March 13, 2024, 07:27:05 AM »
Ukraine might have severely damaged another A-50 "AWACS" airplane.

Just Joe

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4301 on: March 13, 2024, 08:37:52 AM »
The SUN had a video on YouTube showing a large four engine transport going down. One engine was on fire. Wasn't sure how that disabled the plane as a whole but maybe it wrecked the controls too?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OUch6Y37X0

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4302 on: March 13, 2024, 08:42:08 AM »
Ukraine might have severely damaged another A-50 "AWACS" airplane.
There's been a bunch of action over the last 48 hours.  Multiple refineries and oil depots hit, a refurbishment facility for the A-50 hit (with potentially two A-50's), and some incursion into Russian territory by some non-Ukrainian-military groups.  It looks like Russia managed to destroy a Patriot launcher for the first time.  The US military found another $300 million in the couch cushions, so they're sending another tranche of missiles.

And a Czech-led consortium has assembled $800 million to supply Ukraine with a whole lotta artillery shells, with deliveries expected to start in the next couple weeks.

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4303 on: March 13, 2024, 08:42:49 AM »
So like . . . the sanctions against Russia have been ineffective then, right?  I remember when this war started everyone was predicting that Russia's economy would be crippled.  But they're expected to grow faster than the G7 nations this year.

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4304 on: March 13, 2024, 08:44:32 AM »
Regarding Republicans, you guys are trying to use Neocon talking points on people who have rejected Neoconservativism. People saw how that philosophy worked out in the Iraq War.

The neoconservatism that supported the Iraq war was about remaking a dictatorship into a democracy. Supplying arms to Ukraine is preventing a democracy from being taken over by a dictator.
.
Very good point - Comparing apples and oranges.  I am slowly beginning to recognize more and more "Whataboutisms" that just don't hold up under even my own ignorant scrutiny.

Just the same - What happened to the neocons?  They ruled the Republican roost just a few years ago.  How have they been silenced by the MAGAs?
They moved to the Democrat party. Bill Bristol considers himself to be a Democrat since Trump was president

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4305 on: March 13, 2024, 08:45:40 AM »
It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

GuitarStv

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4306 on: March 13, 2024, 08:48:11 AM »
It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4307 on: March 13, 2024, 09:33:42 AM »
So like . . . the sanctions against Russia have been ineffective then, right?  I remember when this war started everyone was predicting that Russia's economy would be crippled.  But they're expected to grow faster than the G7 nations this year.
I struggle to find any example in history when sanctions have led to regime change or a policy pivot by a foreign country. It seems we believe sanctions will work despite them never having accomplished anything in the past.

There's a solid argument that sanctions reduce the business class in the targeted country and increase their dependency on government, making them less able to influence policy. Thus they help dictators consolidate their grip on the economy while neutralizing the opposition.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4308 on: March 13, 2024, 09:38:48 AM »
It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.




That article makes me think Ukraine needs to target Russian oil production & shipping facilities & equipment.  Stop the oil flow & stop the cash flow.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4309 on: March 13, 2024, 09:40:00 AM »
It's easy to "grow" an economy when you're draining your national reserves, and when you're cooking the books...

The IMF says Russia's economy is going to grow 2.6% this year - https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-sanctions-economy-1.7141305, and they're going to do 240 billion in trade with China alone.
Yes, that happens in a war spending time.
But Russia is losing reservers at a fast rate, and proced stuff is of less quality and more expensive than it would have been without sanctions.

But whoever said the economy would collapse in a few month because of the sanctions is stupid and you should stop listening.
The US blockade (not just a few sanctions) of Cuba have made the country needlessy poor and killed many thousands of Cubans but they didn't "collapse" the economy even though that was the goal.
The sanctions never intended to collapse Russian economy. 
The intention was to make war more costly, and while that hasn't been such a success as intended because of China and lacking oversight (Somehow exports to Russias neighbors have increased dramatically for some goods, in some areas people must have more washing machines than hands by now.)

reeshau

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4310 on: March 13, 2024, 10:40:34 AM »
I think we're headed more for a dystopia in the style of Ready Player One.

Ready Player One and WALL-E (mounds of refuse, willfully helpless humans, throw away consumerism).

I saw the movie before I read the book.  The book is, of course, so much better.  And so much darker.  Ready Player Two, even more so.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4311 on: March 13, 2024, 11:01:53 AM »
That article makes me think Ukraine needs to target Russian oil production & shipping facilities & equipment.  Stop the oil flow & stop the cash flow.
And indeed they are.  And to tie the subjects back together, it looks like it'll take Russia longer than anticipate to repair the earlier-attacked refineries, thanks in large part to ....sanctions!


Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4312 on: March 13, 2024, 11:12:49 AM »
Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2024, 11:15:28 AM by Cawl »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4313 on: March 13, 2024, 12:05:20 PM »
Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4314 on: March 13, 2024, 05:30:42 PM »
Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.
Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4315 on: March 13, 2024, 06:14:11 PM »
Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.
Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

OK - It' always hard to argue with a French speaking machine.

So -35,000 a month.  Why so many?  Are that many dying?  35,000 X 12 = 420,000  That's lot of casualties.

Here's today's list of Russian casualties.

13.03.2024

    Tanks — 6752 (+5)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 12921 (+20)
    Artillery systems — 10554 (+32)
    MLRS — 1017 (+1)
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 715 (+2)
    Planes — 347
    Helicopters — 325
    UAV — 8205 (+22)
    Cruise missiles — 1919
    Ships (boats) — 26
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 13932 (+62)
    Special equipment — 1699 (+8)
    Military personnel — aprx. 426870 people (+980)

Looks like Mr.Putin has to get maybe 800/ day X 30 days per month = 24,000 each month to replace his losses.

35,000 < 24,000  Good thing he doesn't care about his troops or his potential victory could be painful.

I do hope the French speaking machine s wrong.

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4316 on: March 14, 2024, 11:31:11 AM »
Leaks from the French Ministry of Defense.

https://www.marianne.net/monde/europe/guerre-en-ukraine-endurance-russe-echec-de-la-contre-offensive-ce-que-cache-le-virage-de-macron

Archive (https://archive.is/rPZ2s)

They don't believe that Ukraine can win. Ukraine will need 35,000 new troops a month for survival. Ukraine is also unable to build fortifications like the Surovikin line because of a lack of equipment and materials.

I didn't see the part about Ukraine needing 35,000 new troops a month in the translated link.  Maybe it was linked to your link.

I do believe the sanctions work.  The sanctions I am talking about are the Ukrainian sanctions.  When Ukrainians blow up Russian oil supplies and refineries, they are sanctioning Russian oil.  It may not be permanent, but they can't sell oil they cannot ship.  They cannot use that oil for the "Special Military Operation."  Unlike the financial sanctions, human resources are needed to repair / rebuild such sanctions.

Let's imagine the worst.  What if Russia wins this war?  Will the people who fled the country go back?  Will the European market return to purchasing Russian oil and gas?  Will Russia need to spend trillions of dollars rebuilding Ukraine?  Will Russia be able to develop the gas fields in Ukraine which it covets?  If Russia does begin to rebuild Ukraine, won't that take needed resources that have long been needed for the crumbling infrastructure of Russia?  Unless they kill the bulk of the Ukrainian population, won't they be facing guerrilla  fighters for many years to come?  How will they face a Europe that now appears largely united and hostile to Russia?

I just kind of wonder.  What will they have really won?

How long can Putin keep his people subjugated in this modern age?  It appears he has to keep tightening the social control screws and is quickly returning to the techniques of Stalin.

Who may have really won?  China.  China is in the catbird's seat when it comes to any negotiations with Russia.  Russia is dependent on China today and not the other way around.
Machine Translation
The combativity of Ukrainian soldiers is deeply affected », mentions a prospective report on’year 2024.« Zelensky would need 35,000 men a month, he n’en is not recruiting half, while Putin pickaxe in a pool of 30,000 monthly volunteers », a soldier returned from Kiev.

OK - It' always hard to argue with a French speaking machine.

So -35,000 a month.  Why so many?  Are that many dying?  35,000 X 12 = 420,000  That's lot of casualties.

Here's today's list of Russian casualties.

13.03.2024

    Tanks — 6752 (+5)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 12921 (+20)
    Artillery systems — 10554 (+32)
    MLRS — 1017 (+1)
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 715 (+2)
    Planes — 347
    Helicopters — 325
    UAV — 8205 (+22)
    Cruise missiles — 1919
    Ships (boats) — 26
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 13932 (+62)
    Special equipment — 1699 (+8)
    Military personnel — aprx. 426870 people (+980)

Looks like Mr.Putin has to get maybe 800/ day X 30 days per month = 24,000 each month to replace his losses.

35,000 < 24,000  Good thing he doesn't care about his troops or his potential victory could be painful.

I do hope the French speaking machine s wrong.
Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4317 on: March 14, 2024, 12:23:36 PM »
Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.
How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4318 on: March 14, 2024, 12:39:13 PM »
Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.
How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?

Once a while ago, I was taught that people can lie and cheat with statistics.  Later on I learned about "fake news."  How does one say fake news in French? fausses nouvelles  Maybe that 35,000 statistic is fausses nouvelles.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4319 on: March 14, 2024, 02:23:03 PM »
Maybe Ukraine wants 35K for troop rotation and so on. Something the Russians are not really concerned about anyway.
That is the reason for the back and fore about increased recruitment in Ukraine.
But don't forget that increasing draft is not only - understandably - unpopular but also endangers the economic base of the country. Every soldier is someone that consumes instead of producing.

Also don't forget that soldiers should get training. EU plans to train 30K this year. The training may not be as extensive as for normal soldiers, but it surely is a lot better as what the Russian meat gets - which is one reason for the loss rate difference.
For comparison: the whole German Bundeswehr has 180K soldiers, and yearly fluctuation is less than 20K.
If we train 5K on top it means we train 25% above our normal capacity.

Tyson

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4320 on: March 14, 2024, 05:35:20 PM »
Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4321 on: March 14, 2024, 07:11:11 PM »
Came across this on reddit.

#1: phone call between Macron and Putin, 6 days before the invasion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1bday80/this_phone_call_between_putin_and_macron_4_days/

#2: phone call between Zelensky and Macron, 4 hours before the invasion:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1beolfb/zelensky_and_macrons_phone_call_6_hours_before/

#3: Zelensky called Macron to inform him the invasion started:
https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1bdsfkm/zelenskys_phone_call_to_macron_to_inform_him_that/

Context that the OP posted on one of the videos:
"For context, this is from a documentary called « Un Président, l’Europe et la guerre » (A President, Europe and war). Cameras were allowed to follow Macron and his team for 6 months (January to June 2022). The documentary was initially about France taking over the Presidency of the EU Council for these 6 months but since the war started in that time frame, it became the behind the scenes of what went down in regard to the invasion.

I already shared these 2 videos of other phone calls: Putin and Macron & Zelensky and Macron but the full thing can be watched here, for those who are interested to see more. It’s a must-watch imo, it’s not often we get to see behind the scene footages like this, especially in such a tense historical context."

https://gofile.io/d/a4w7wy  <--link for the full documentary, a file sharing site of some sort. I was able to download it, it does play, and my antivirus hasn't freaked out. I haven't watched it all yet, but skipping through it seems like there are English subtitles.

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4322 on: March 15, 2024, 04:24:12 AM »
Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.
How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?
You've been getting cooked data. Dressed up for propaganda purposes.

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4323 on: March 15, 2024, 04:30:55 AM »
Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?
So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4324 on: March 15, 2024, 04:57:28 AM »
Ukraine requires 35,000 new troops each month. Right now they are only getting half that. Russia is getting a pool of 30,000 new troops each month. This allows them to rotate units off the front line.
How do you square that with the reports that the casualty ratios are 7 or 8:1 in favor of Ukraine?
You've been getting cooked data. Dressed up for propaganda purposes.
Not like the lupenreine truth from the Russian Army? :D :D :D

Too bad that only Germans can really appreciate my joke.

Putting the joke aside, to prevent confusions, those rates are for the defensive battle of e.g. Avdijivka, the average is more 1:3. (In the summer offensive it was about 1:1, which is phenomenal for someone attacking the thickest minefields ever seen without enough of the needed gear and lacking air suport.)

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4325 on: March 15, 2024, 07:08:10 AM »
Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?
So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

I think you've stirred that pot about as far as you can. 

Cawl

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #4326 on: March 15, 2024, 11:22:55 AM »
Didn't we establish earlier in this thread that Cawl was spreading Russian propaganda?
So far no one has taken issue with the news outlet nor the idea of a "leak" from the French military. Nor has anyone refuted these leaks.

I think you've stirred that pot about as far as you can.
I will go relax then.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!