Author Topic: What does North Korea REALLY want?  (Read 8515 times)

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #50 on: August 09, 2017, 08:31:58 AM »
Its sickening that the obvious answer is right in front of everyones face yet no one can see it...thats how propaganda works...its always worked and will always continue to work.

NK does not want anything.  They arent going to attack anyone.  They've always ran their mouths...they're always testing missiles, they've always had nuclear capabilities.  NK will not attack a single country...get that through your heads.

Why are we seeing news story after news story about NK...why all the fear mongering?  The United States is planning to go with war against NK.  Before they can go to war they have to convince everyone that war is justified.  The US government needs public approval.  Thats why we keep seeing more NK stories...its desensitizing us.  Its propaganda at its finest yet no one knows it.  Its brilliant. 

Why do we want to go with war with NK?  Any guess??? MONEY!  The "war" on terror is ramping down.  The "war" on drugs is losing steam.  We need another excuse to engage.

I think you might underestimate North Korean aggression. North Korea in the past 10 years has shelled South Korean islands. In the past, they tried to assassinate the South Korean President, and they seized a US ship.

North Korea thinks nothing of killing South Koreans and Americans and will do it if we show weakness. No one actually wants a war with North Korea, it'd be devastating and probably cost hundreds of thousands of South Korean lives, but if they show aggression, the correct response is to counter with our own aggression.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2017, 08:40:07 AM »
My parents recently visited South Korea (last month), near the border and spoke to the locals about North Korea. They asked, "don't you worry constantly about the folks up north?"

The locals looked at them very quizzically, and said something to the effect of: "What do you mean? It's very peaceful here." They didn't have the faintest idea of what my parents were talking about.

I think a lot of the media BS is fear mongering.

If you ask people living downstream of a big hydroelectric damn how worried they are about the dam failing, people get more and more worried the closer you get to the dam until you get close enough that there is absolutely no way they'd survive and then suddenly people stop worrying about it at all. The human brain doesn't like to spend a lot of time dwelling on risks of certain death.
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ponyboy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #52 on: August 09, 2017, 08:56:04 AM »
Its sickening that the obvious answer is right in front of everyones face yet no one can see it...thats how propaganda works...its always worked and will always continue to work.

NK does not want anything.  They arent going to attack anyone.  They've always ran their mouths...they're always testing missiles, they've always had nuclear capabilities.  NK will not attack a single country...get that through your heads.

Why are we seeing news story after news story about NK...why all the fear mongering?  The United States is planning to go with war against NK.  Before they can go to war they have to convince everyone that war is justified.  The US government needs public approval.  Thats why we keep seeing more NK stories...its desensitizing us.  Its propaganda at its finest yet no one knows it.  Its brilliant. 

Why do we want to go with war with NK?  Any guess??? MONEY!  The "war" on terror is ramping down.  The "war" on drugs is losing steam.  We need another excuse to engage.

I completely agree with you.  This reminds me of the leadup to the war in Iraq following 9/11.  The media spun everyone up into a frenzy, that the war with Iraq was inevitable, and that Iraq was bound to attack the US with WMDs or even nukes.  I wouldn't call it desentization, I would argue it's actually trying to cause us to be afraid so that we don't resist.

You're right...I agree with you.

2lazy2retire

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #53 on: August 09, 2017, 09:13:48 AM »

Apparently North Korea has a missile that can reach New York, if it can make there it can make it anywhere

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #54 on: August 09, 2017, 09:29:13 AM »
Its sickening that the obvious answer is right in front of everyones face yet no one can see it...thats how propaganda works...its always worked and will always continue to work.

NK does not want anything.  They arent going to attack anyone.  They've always ran their mouths...they're always testing missiles, they've always had nuclear capabilities.  NK will not attack a single country...get that through your heads.

Why are we seeing news story after news story about NK...why all the fear mongering?  The United States is planning to go with war against NK.  Before they can go to war they have to convince everyone that war is justified.  The US government needs public approval.  Thats why we keep seeing more NK stories...its desensitizing us.  Its propaganda at its finest yet no one knows it.  Its brilliant. 

Why do we want to go with war with NK?  Any guess??? MONEY!  The "war" on terror is ramping down.  The "war" on drugs is losing steam.  We need another excuse to engage.

I think you might underestimate North Korean aggression. North Korea in the past 10 years has shelled South Korean islands. In the past, they tried to assassinate the South Korean President, and they seized a US ship.

North Korea thinks nothing of killing South Koreans and Americans and will do it if we show weakness. No one actually wants a war with North Korea, it'd be devastating and probably cost hundreds of thousands of South Korean lives, but if they show aggression, the correct response is to counter with our own aggression.

I would argue it's best not to threaten a nuclear armed country that we will nuke them.  When has this ever been done before?  Obviously if they attack we can counter-attack, but it looks like Trump is leaning towards a preemptive strike here.

Most recently? I'd say the 1970s, the Yom Kippur War. The US strongly signaled to the USSR that if they intervened in the Middle East, we would attack them.

A pre-emptive attack is not entirely unreasonable, IMO. Would prefer not to let every rogue state think they can threaten established powers with nuclear weapons.

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #55 on: August 09, 2017, 10:14:48 AM »
Its sickening that the obvious answer is right in front of everyones face yet no one can see it...thats how propaganda works...its always worked and will always continue to work.

NK does not want anything.  They arent going to attack anyone.  They've always ran their mouths...they're always testing missiles, they've always had nuclear capabilities.  NK will not attack a single country...get that through your heads.

Why are we seeing news story after news story about NK...why all the fear mongering?  The United States is planning to go with war against NK.  Before they can go to war they have to convince everyone that war is justified.  The US government needs public approval.  Thats why we keep seeing more NK stories...its desensitizing us.  Its propaganda at its finest yet no one knows it.  Its brilliant. 

Why do we want to go with war with NK?  Any guess??? MONEY!  The "war" on terror is ramping down.  The "war" on drugs is losing steam.  We need another excuse to engage.

I think you might underestimate North Korean aggression. North Korea in the past 10 years has shelled South Korean islands. In the past, they tried to assassinate the South Korean President, and they seized a US ship.

North Korea thinks nothing of killing South Koreans and Americans and will do it if we show weakness. No one actually wants a war with North Korea, it'd be devastating and probably cost hundreds of thousands of South Korean lives, but if they show aggression, the correct response is to counter with our own aggression.

I would argue it's best not to threaten a nuclear armed country that we will nuke them.  When has this ever been done before?  Obviously if they attack we can counter-attack, but it looks like Trump is leaning towards a preemptive strike here.

Most recently? I'd say the 1970s, the Yom Kippur War. The US strongly signaled to the USSR that if they intervened in the Middle East, we would attack them.

A pre-emptive attack is not entirely unreasonable, IMO. Would prefer not to let every rogue state think they can threaten established powers with nuclear weapons.

Fine, you support having another Iraq invasion, this time in a mountainous country with the backing of China.  Sounds like a promising decade ahead!
I don't think we should try occupying North Korea, and if we end up toppling North Korea, it should be occupied by South Korean soldiers, not American soldiers.

I think bombing a missile on the ground is pretty limited. Maybe it'll escalate into a full-blown war from there. My bet is that it wouldn't. North Korea wouldn't survive it.

I am not particularly afraid of China in the near-term. Maybe in like 10-15 years. China just isn't a major threat like the USSR was, and the US is at the apex of its power.

thesvenster

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #56 on: August 09, 2017, 10:15:33 AM »
Anyone have any insight on how actual South Koreans think about this? I see the comment about the folks near the DMZ. But I've heard a lot of SKs dislike the US military presence.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #57 on: August 09, 2017, 11:50:15 AM »
My parents recently visited South Korea (last month), near the border and spoke to the locals about North Korea. They asked, "don't you worry constantly about the folks up north?"

The locals looked at them very quizzically, and said something to the effect of: "What do you mean? It's very peaceful here." They didn't have the faintest idea of what my parents were talking about.

I think a lot of the media BS is fear mongering.

If you ask people living downstream of a big hydroelectric damn how worried they are about the dam failing, people get more and more worried the closer you get to the dam until you get close enough that there is absolutely no way they'd survive and then suddenly people stop worrying about it at all. The human brain doesn't like to spend a lot of time dwelling on risks of certain death.

Makes sense. Nuclear bombs are completely beyond my control. I live in CT, a bomb in NYC would mean I'd probably be dead. I could worry about it till I was blue in the face, but it wouldn't change anything.

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #58 on: August 09, 2017, 03:55:42 PM »
Its sickening that the obvious answer is right in front of everyones face yet no one can see it...thats how propaganda works...its always worked and will always continue to work.

NK does not want anything.  They arent going to attack anyone.  They've always ran their mouths...they're always testing missiles, they've always had nuclear capabilities.  NK will not attack a single country...get that through your heads.

Why are we seeing news story after news story about NK...why all the fear mongering?  The United States is planning to go with war against NK.  Before they can go to war they have to convince everyone that war is justified.  The US government needs public approval.  Thats why we keep seeing more NK stories...its desensitizing us.  Its propaganda at its finest yet no one knows it.  Its brilliant. 

Why do we want to go with war with NK?  Any guess??? MONEY!  The "war" on terror is ramping down.  The "war" on drugs is losing steam.  We need another excuse to engage.

I think you might underestimate North Korean aggression. North Korea in the past 10 years has shelled South Korean islands. In the past, they tried to assassinate the South Korean President, and they seized a US ship.

North Korea thinks nothing of killing South Koreans and Americans and will do it if we show weakness. No one actually wants a war with North Korea, it'd be devastating and probably cost hundreds of thousands of South Korean lives, but if they show aggression, the correct response is to counter with our own aggression.

I would argue it's best not to threaten a nuclear armed country that we will nuke them.  When has this ever been done before?  Obviously if they attack we can counter-attack, but it looks like Trump is leaning towards a preemptive strike here.

Most recently? I'd say the 1970s, the Yom Kippur War. The US strongly signaled to the USSR that if they intervened in the Middle East, we would attack them.

A pre-emptive attack is not entirely unreasonable, IMO. Would prefer not to let every rogue state think they can threaten established powers with nuclear weapons.

Fine, you support having another Iraq invasion, this time in a mountainous country with the backing of China.  Sounds like a promising decade ahead!
I don't think we should try occupying North Korea, and if we end up toppling North Korea, it should be occupied by South Korean soldiers, not American soldiers.

I think bombing a missile on the ground is pretty limited. Maybe it'll escalate into a full-blown war from there. My bet is that it wouldn't. North Korea wouldn't survive it.

I am not particularly afraid of China in the near-term. Maybe in like 10-15 years. China just isn't a major threat like the USSR was, and the US is at the apex of its power.

You aren't afraid of China?  They have hydrogen bombs.  I would be super afraid if the US got into a war with any nuclear armed country.  In particular, 2 of them at the same time, while also fighting ISIS, Taliban.  We are stretched pretty thin.

I am pretty convinced that no Chinese leader wants to risk China over North Korea. That pretty much rules out nuclear weapons.

Plus, China has an explicit no first use policy. I don't see them breaking that over North Korea. Especially to get in a nuclear shooting match with the US.

FinallyAwake

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #59 on: August 09, 2017, 04:01:09 PM »
My parents recently visited South Korea (last month), near the border and spoke to the locals about North Korea. They asked, "don't you worry constantly about the folks up north?"

The locals looked at them very quizzically, and said something to the effect of: "What do you mean? It's very peaceful here." They didn't have the faintest idea of what my parents were talking about.

I think a lot of the media BS is fear mongering.

If you ask people living downstream of a big hydroelectric damn how worried they are about the dam failing, people get more and more worried the closer you get to the dam until you get close enough that there is absolutely no way they'd survive and then suddenly people stop worrying about it at all. The human brain doesn't like to spend a lot of time dwelling on risks of certain death.

Makes sense. Nuclear bombs are completely beyond my control. I live in CT, a bomb in NYC would mean I'd probably be dead. I could worry about it till I was blue in the face, but it wouldn't change anything.

I, on the other hand, don't live in an area that is likely to be hit, so I would have to deal with nuclear fallout.  So I think about it.  What supplies should I have?  What actions should I take?  I guess I think of nuclear preparation like a fire extinguisher- good to have, but not likely to be needed.  However, I haven't actually bought anything- it's still in my Amazon cart.  So maybe my intuition is telling me something.  But all the news stories make me second guess my indecision.  I do wonder if it's a lot of fear mongering, but tensions DO seem to keep escalating, so.........

DoubleDown

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #60 on: August 09, 2017, 06:04:04 PM »

Apparently North Korea has a missile that can reach New York, if it can make there it can make it anywhere

FOR. THE. WIN!!!

They really should start spreading the news about that missile.
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GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #61 on: August 09, 2017, 06:24:02 PM »

Apparently North Korea has a missile that can reach New York, if it can make there it can make it anywhere

FOR. THE. WIN!!!

They really should start spreading the news about that missile.

+1   

:D

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #62 on: August 09, 2017, 06:37:29 PM »
CNN aired this 1999 clip of Trump discussing NK last night. The extent to which Trump is cognitively impaired in 2017 seems evident by comparison.

prognastat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #63 on: August 10, 2017, 08:29:40 AM »
North Korea's goal most likely is to have a nuclear deterrent effective enough to keep the US at bay from attacking them. They likely want to be able to miniaturize their nuclear warheads to where they can effectively launch them using their submarines. This would effectively be a greater deterrent in that they could have multiple submarines "hiding" away from North Korea with the threat that if North Korea gets attacked even with a large scale attack they will able to do unimaginable damage to the attacker even if North Korea has already been defeated.
 
The real worry is once North Korea has achieved this level of deterrence what will this lead to. It wouldn't surprise me at all if North Korea will try to do the same thing Russia did and attempt to annex South Korea once they feel they are in a place where the US can't retaliate without fear of Nuclear attacks on it's mayor cities.

Milkshake

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #64 on: August 10, 2017, 11:43:59 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

I am not worried about NK's ICBMs. We'll just shoot them down before they even get back into the mesosphere. These systems aren't cheap, but We the People spend billions and billions on this stuff.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #65 on: August 10, 2017, 12:02:27 PM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

I am not worried about NK's ICBMs. We'll just shoot them down before they even get back into the mesosphere. These systems aren't cheap, but We the People spend billions and billions on this stuff.

The system is also new, and only has to miss once.  It took 20 years from the Patriot's first in-combat intercept before we could really consider it reliable. In Desert Storm we fired up to 10 missiles for every intercept and sometimes still missed.  In Iraqi Freedom we fired one for one and missed once out of a dozen intercepts.
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Milkshake

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #66 on: August 10, 2017, 12:53:29 PM »
Not sure of the source now but I read that the DOD was speeding the deployment of a THAAD system to Guam. I can try to find it.

THAAD has had 15 consecutive successful tests now, that's good enough for me.

Edit: Just kidding, they've had THAAD there for 2 years

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/08/politics/north-korea-considering-guam-strike-trump/index.html
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 01:01:55 PM by Milkshake »

GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #67 on: August 10, 2017, 01:40:32 PM »
Not sure of the source now but I read that the DOD was speeding the deployment of a THAAD system to Guam. I can try to find it.

THAAD has had 15 consecutive successful tests now, that's good enough for me.

Edit: Just kidding, they've had THAAD there for 2 years

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/08/politics/north-korea-considering-guam-strike-trump/index.html

This is making me feel a bit less panicked.  Also, I was reading that the nukes that North Korea has are only as powerful as the weapons we dropped on Japan in 1945 - about 20 kilotons.  So, we certainly have an overwhelming advantage if it came to that.  But, I would feel very sorry for the innocent korean people that would die.

It's a tad strange to hear someone say "meh, it's only 20 kilotons".  Those nukes at the end of the second world war had a rather lasting impact on the minds of the Japanese who lived through them if I recall correctly.

Milkshake

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #68 on: August 10, 2017, 02:42:01 PM »
...

It's a tad strange to hear someone say "meh, it's only 20 kilotons".  Those nukes at the end of the second world war had a rather lasting impact on the minds of the Japanese who lived through them if I recall correctly.

True. And a nuclear blast would be terrifying for everyone, whether there or not. However, the 20kt bomb "only" caused a 1 mile radius of total destruction, and a 2 mile radius of fires. This was also a plutonium fission bomb, not a gun-type uranium bomb (ie, much more complex and difficult to create).

I think a lot of people think nuke and picture Tsar Bomba, which had a 5 mile fireball and a mushroom cloud 7 times taller than Mount Everest. That takes a lot of impressive engineering and won't fit on any ICBM made to date.

ETA: Tsar Bomba was 51 megatons.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 02:44:04 PM by Milkshake »

Paul der Krake

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #69 on: August 10, 2017, 03:17:17 PM »

prognastat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #70 on: August 10, 2017, 03:42:15 PM »
...

It's a tad strange to hear someone say "meh, it's only 20 kilotons".  Those nukes at the end of the second world war had a rather lasting impact on the minds of the Japanese who lived through them if I recall correctly.

True. And a nuclear blast would be terrifying for everyone, whether there or not. However, the 20kt bomb "only" caused a 1 mile radius of total destruction, and a 2 mile radius of fires. This was also a plutonium fission bomb, not a gun-type uranium bomb (ie, much more complex and difficult to create).

I think a lot of people think nuke and picture Tsar Bomba, which had a 5 mile fireball and a mushroom cloud 7 times taller than Mount Everest. That takes a lot of impressive engineering and won't fit on any ICBM made to date.

ETA: Tsar Bomba was 51 megatons.

When fired at some of the highest population density locations in the US one of those could kill more than 160.000 people per bomb.

Estimates vary but the general estimate is that they have/could produce somewhere between 10-20 warheads. The estimates of the power they are able to achieve is between 10 and 30 kilotons.

A 10 kiloton bomb could potentially kill 115.000+. A 30 kiloton one possibly 200.000+.

That would mean they could inflict between 1.150.000 and 4.000.000 deaths if they were to go all out. It wouldn't end the US. But it would be devastating.

For reference they estimate 200.000 died in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings combined and 9/11 caused the deaths of about 3.000 people.

And that is just in the US, there are actually places with much higher population densities than anywhere in the US.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 03:43:54 PM by prognastat »

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #71 on: August 10, 2017, 03:55:09 PM »
Well, once you get to nuclear war (or even conventional world war), we literally count deaths in the millions, so 20kt doesn't seem that bad by comparison.

Like, when you think the Soviet Union might drop 100 nukes on 100 cities, and that could kill up to 56 million people, 20kt doesn't seem like a big deal.


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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #72 on: August 10, 2017, 05:36:54 PM »
Trumps fiery retorts to the kind that have been coming out of NK for decades may in the end have little impact other than encouraging more of the same from NK.

I would be somewhat surprised if words were enough to push Kim over the edge into triggering a conflict that he knows will mean the end for him, or at least decades of crippling war.

From that perspective I feel like the fiery rhetoric coming out the white house is even more of a joke, unless we have made a full 180 shift in direction and are now willing to launch a first strike or do something physically to change the situation, likely at great cost to an ally and full break down a nuclear none proliferation as our allies like SK and Japan realize we don't have their backs and are willing to risk their safety with unilateral action.

NK leaders know full well that nuclear capability removes conventional war almost entirely from the table. That is why nothing short of force or unforeseen regime change will deter them from this course.

From options I have heard it does sound like the only chance for a benign resolution to this is to wait an hope that one day the chain of crazy regimes breaks down and they lose their grip on their people. Then some kind of internal revolution ensues and a slightly more reasonable government emerges.

Any other attempt to punish them fiscally or physically that would actually work will almost certainly lead to a war, ie we force Kim into a corner where it is war or loss of power, which we have no will to fight unless forced by an unprompted serious attack.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2017, 08:39:21 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

I am not worried about NK's ICBMs. We'll just shoot them down before they even get back into the mesosphere. These systems aren't cheap, but We the People spend billions and billions on this stuff.

Yet some lunatic was able to fly a gyrocopter in restricted airspace and land on the capital lawn in DC.  Yeah...we have a real sophisticated system alright, lol.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #74 on: August 11, 2017, 10:08:46 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

I am not worried about NK's ICBMs. We'll just shoot them down before they even get back into the mesosphere. These systems aren't cheap, but We the People spend billions and billions on this stuff.

Yet some lunatic was able to fly a gyrocopter in restricted airspace and land on the capital lawn in DC.  Yeah...we have a real sophisticated system alright, lol.

You don't actually think we don't have the capability to shoot down an old man in a gyrocopter, do you? Obviously they chose to let him land because he was deemed not to be a serious threat to the White House. Plus he told the police he was coming. Also, a gyrocopter is a hell of a lot smaller than a 30,000lb ICBM.

Bush was prepared to shoot down the 4th passenger jet during 9/11 if it got too close to the White House.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #75 on: August 11, 2017, 10:49:59 AM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_High_Altitude_Area_Defense

I am not worried about NK's ICBMs. We'll just shoot them down before they even get back into the mesosphere. These systems aren't cheap, but We the People spend billions and billions on this stuff.

Yet some lunatic was able to fly a gyrocopter in restricted airspace and land on the capital lawn in DC.  Yeah...we have a real sophisticated system alright, lol.

It is a pretty advanced system guarding the National Capital Region. Part of that sophistication is being able to figure out sooner than later if a violator is some schmuck or a real threat. They also have to balance launching an expensive missile at an object that will itself become deadly to those on the ground vs getting him to land and arresting him.
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FrugalFisherman10

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #76 on: August 11, 2017, 12:36:59 PM »
My parents recently visited South Korea (last month), near the border and spoke to the locals about North Korea. They asked, "don't you worry constantly about the folks up north?"

The locals looked at them very quizzically, and said something to the effect of: "What do you mean? It's very peaceful here." They didn't have the faintest idea of what my parents were talking about.

I think a lot of the media BS is fear mongering.

If you ask people living downstream of a big hydroelectric damn how worried they are about the dam failing, people get more and more worried the closer you get to the dam until you get close enough that there is absolutely no way they'd survive and then suddenly people stop worrying about it at all. The human brain doesn't like to spend a lot of time dwelling on risks of certain death.

Makes sense. Nuclear bombs are completely beyond my control. I live in CT, a bomb in NYC would mean I'd probably be dead. I could worry about it till I was blue in the face, but it wouldn't change anything.
not how you spell dam ;)

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #77 on: August 11, 2017, 01:38:06 PM »
One for two on the correct spelling. Damn. ;-)
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sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #78 on: August 11, 2017, 01:48:30 PM »
Trumps fiery retorts to the kind that have been coming out of NK for decades may in the end have little impact other than encouraging more of the same from NK.

I would be somewhat surprised if words were enough to push Kim over the edge into triggering a conflict that he knows will mean the end for him, or at least decades of crippling war.

This is a wrong argument. Are you sure Kim is not willing to die for his cause? Are you sure mentally he is not like one of those suicide bomber "I am willing to die as long as you die too"? Are you sure he is not ready to sacrifice everything in his disposal just to prove a point that he can inflict damage to US and/or South Korean plus Japan?

If the answer is, we do not 100% know for sure, then perhaps Trump may not want to insult the guy on twitter, and we should not assume NK will not fire the first shot or launch the first missile.

Also, even without nukes, his army consist of more than 1 million personnel, with thousands of conventional artillery, tanks etc. If he marches his army toward Seoul, I am not sure US or South Korea can stop him (look at Iraq invasion of Kuwait). Yes we beat them back, but that is months later, and by that time the damage is done. How many US citizen (military, their families, etc) in South Korea now? I would imagine more than 100K. These will be the first war casualties, not folks living Guam or US.




sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #79 on: August 11, 2017, 01:49:52 PM »
Trumps fiery retorts to the kind that have been coming out of NK for decades may in the end have little impact other than encouraging more of the same from NK.

I would be somewhat surprised if words were enough to push Kim over the edge into triggering a conflict that he knows will mean the end for him, or at least decades of crippling war.

This is a wrong argument. Are you sure Kim is not willing to die for his cause? Are you sure mentally he is not like one of those suicide bomber "I am willing to die as long as you die too"? Are you sure he is not ready to sacrifice everything in his disposal just to prove a point that he can inflict damage to US and/or South Korean plus Japan?

If the answer is, we do not 100% know for sure, then perhaps Trump may not want to insult the guy on twitter, and we should not assume NK will not fire the first shot or launch the first missile.

Also, even without nukes, his army consist of more than 1 million personnel, with thousands of conventional artillery, tanks etc. If he marches his army toward Seoul (35 miles from the border), I am not sure US or South Korea can stop him (look at Iraq invasion of Kuwait). Yes we beat them back, but that is months later, and by that time the damage is done. How many US citizen (military, their families, etc) in South Korea now? I would imagine more than 100K. These will be the first war casualties, not folks living Guam or US.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #80 on: August 11, 2017, 02:08:46 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #81 on: August 11, 2017, 02:17:16 PM »
Trumps fiery retorts to the kind that have been coming out of NK for decades may in the end have little impact other than encouraging more of the same from NK.

I would be somewhat surprised if words were enough to push Kim over the edge into triggering a conflict that he knows will mean the end for him, or at least decades of crippling war.

This is a wrong argument. Are you sure Kim is not willing to die for his cause? Are you sure mentally he is not like one of those suicide bomber "I am willing to die as long as you die too"? Are you sure he is not ready to sacrifice everything in his disposal just to prove a point that he can inflict damage to US and/or South Korean plus Japan?

If the answer is, we do not 100% know for sure, then perhaps Trump may not want to insult the guy on twitter, and we should not assume NK will not fire the first shot or launch the first missile.

Also, even without nukes, his army consist of more than 1 million personnel, with thousands of conventional artillery, tanks etc. If he marches his army toward Seoul, I am not sure US or South Korea can stop him (look at Iraq invasion of Kuwait). Yes we beat them back, but that is months later, and by that time the damage is done. How many US citizen (military, their families, etc) in South Korea now? I would imagine more than 100K. These will be the first war casualties, not folks living Guam or US.

The ROK Army numbers around 500,000 so that's nothing to sneeze at.  One of the few good things about having such a massive city pretty much on the front line is that it would be difficult to drive an army through.  Blockading the highways through Seoul could stop them for days or weeks.  It would mean turning Seoul into a battlefield, but it would buy time to mobilize the ROK and US militaries.  An invasion of the South from the North just isn't going to happen.  They might have the men, but they don't have the air cover or supplies for an offensive.  They're hoping that an invasion north would be equally difficult for us, and there is validity to that.  The border is one giant minefield and the North has a pretty large (if old) air defense network covered by lots of artillery.
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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #82 on: August 11, 2017, 02:26:40 PM »
Then again KJU also acts like a lunatic, so sanctions for bad behavior seems reasonable to me.

I agree with this statement but want to take it a step further and wonder if other western nations will implement sanctions against the U.S. for Trump's continuing lunatic behavior.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #83 on: August 11, 2017, 02:30:39 PM »
China and Russia seem like unknown factors in all of this. This whole North Korea thing probably won't start WW3 but something like this will start WW3 eventually.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #84 on: August 11, 2017, 02:35:36 PM »
Then again KJU also acts like a lunatic, so sanctions for bad behavior seems reasonable to me.

I agree with this statement but want to take it a step further and wonder if other western nations will implement sanctions against the U.S. for Trump's continuing lunatic behavior.

It does seem like a reasonable approach to dealing with him.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #85 on: August 11, 2017, 03:14:39 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #86 on: August 11, 2017, 03:20:00 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

If Trump were a dictator with absolute control over the USA and threatening those countries directly with Nuclear weapons(or even non-Nuclear, just a large scale attack) I would say they definitely should be considering it as a possible course of action.

Also there are no "rights" when talking about a government, individuals have rights in so far as they are enforced, governments don't have rights.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2017, 03:23:22 PM by prognastat »

sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #87 on: August 11, 2017, 03:20:37 PM »
The ROK Army numbers around 500,000 so that's nothing to sneeze at.  One of the few good things about having such a massive city pretty much on the front line is that it would be difficult to drive an army through.  Blockading the highways through Seoul could stop them for days or weeks.  It would mean turning Seoul into a battlefield, but it would buy time to mobilize the ROK and US militaries.  An invasion of the South from the North just isn't going to happen. They might have the men, but they don't have the air cover or supplies for an offensive.  They're hoping that an invasion north would be equally difficult for us, and there is validity to that.  The border is one giant minefield and the North has a pretty large (if old) air defense network covered by lots of artillery.

I hope you are right, I really do. I have friends and relatives in Korea. But then again, no one ever predicted some lunatics would use commercial airliner as missile.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #88 on: August 11, 2017, 06:27:55 PM »
Trumps fiery retorts to the kind that have been coming out of NK for decades may in the end have little impact other than encouraging more of the same from NK.

I would be somewhat surprised if words were enough to push Kim over the edge into triggering a conflict that he knows will mean the end for him, or at least decades of crippling war.

This is a wrong argument. Are you sure Kim is not willing to die for his cause? Are you sure mentally he is not like one of those suicide bomber "I am willing to die as long as you die too"? Are you sure he is not ready to sacrifice everything in his disposal just to prove a point that he can inflict damage to US and/or South Korean plus Japan?

If the answer is, we do not 100% know for sure, then perhaps Trump may not want to insult the guy on twitter, and we should not assume NK will not fire the first shot or launch the first missile.

Also, even without nukes, his army consist of more than 1 million personnel, with thousands of conventional artillery, tanks etc. If he marches his army toward Seoul, I am not sure US or South Korea can stop him (look at Iraq invasion of Kuwait). Yes we beat them back, but that is months later, and by that time the damage is done. How many US citizen (military, their families, etc) in South Korea now? I would imagine more than 100K. These will be the first war casualties, not folks living Guam or US.

Kim has given every indication that he is not suicidal, at least not yet. I think it is ignorant to antagonize him verbally in the manner Trump is because it serves to only make us look weaker as we continue to make empty threats.

There are no winners if we were to ever go to war. Just a shit load of dead South Koreans and Americans once we get in there to try to stop it.

But at the same time while I believe we don't have much evidence Kim is suicidal, we have ample evidence that he is deeply paranoid, having killed a number of his close family members whom he believed had turned against him.

The real danger here is if Kim starts testing the waters again by going after regional targets to try to put Trump in his place. Any one of which might be the excuse Trump needs to declare war.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #89 on: August 13, 2017, 07:04:53 AM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #90 on: August 14, 2017, 07:32:22 AM »
Many years ago I read an article, I think in Scientific American, that the US could fight World War 3 with the then Soviet Union solely with cruise missiles, with conventional warheads, say a million, launched over a few hours. This was during the Cold War, and relied on the accuracy available at the time. Spy satellites, then and now, allow the US a clear picture of what is happening on the ground, although I know that there is scope for the observed nation to disguise its actions, or mislead the spy in the sky. Such an attack is a version of Blitzkrieg, or lightning war, long known to the military. The idea is to destroy enemy assets before they can be used.

Say ten thousand cruise missiles, aimed mostly at military targets in N Korea, launched within a few hours. If S Korea forbade such an arsenal on its soil, the US would need to move enough ships with all these cruise missiles off the coast of N Korea, which is not easy.

The Israeli military is already able to shoot down incoming short range missiles, such as Russian Scud missiles fired by Muslim groups. Such anti-missile missiles could be used against missiles with conventional warheads fired by North Korea against Seoul.

All war is risk, but such a blitzkrieg is tempting.



sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #91 on: August 14, 2017, 09:17:03 AM »
Many years ago I read an article, I think in Scientific American, that the US could fight World War 3 with the then Soviet Union solely with cruise missiles, with conventional warheads, say a million, launched over a few hours. This was during the Cold War, and relied on the accuracy available at the time. Spy satellites, then and now, allow the US a clear picture of what is happening on the ground, although I know that there is scope for the observed nation to disguise its actions, or mislead the spy in the sky. Such an attack is a version of Blitzkrieg, or lightning war, long known to the military. The idea is to destroy enemy assets before they can be used.

Say ten thousand cruise missiles, aimed mostly at military targets in N Korea, launched within a few hours. If S Korea forbade such an arsenal on its soil, the US would need to move enough ships with all these cruise missiles off the coast of N Korea, which is not easy.

The Israeli military is already able to shoot down incoming short range missiles, such as Russian Scud missiles fired by Muslim groups. Such anti-missile missiles could be used against missiles with conventional warheads fired by North Korea against Seoul.

All war is risk, but such a blitzkrieg is tempting.

Just curious, so it is ok escalating and hitting them first just because their leader threaten US? We can be bombing a lot of countries here if the policy is lets bomb everyone who threaten the US. So far all they have done is just saying this and that, which we have heard before. Also no problem killing thousands here?  I mean Russia has done more than empty threats, including expelling several hundred US diplomats, maybe US should start with them? Or maybe US only blitzkrieg small countries?

I have a mixed feeling about striking first - when is one justified to do this? It is one thing is they lob missiles to US base in Guam, but just because their state media saying something bad about US, is that the justification that US can strike first and kill several thousands people (I understand they are NK military, but still they are people) .
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 09:27:16 AM by sequoia »

sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #92 on: August 14, 2017, 09:20:14 AM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #93 on: August 14, 2017, 09:23:32 AM »
Kim has given every indication that he is not suicidal, at least not yet. I think it is ignorant to antagonize him verbally in the manner Trump is because it serves to only make us look weaker as we continue to make empty threats.

There are no winners if we were to ever go to war. Just a shit load of dead South Koreans and Americans once we get in there to try to stop it.

But at the same time while I believe we don't have much evidence Kim is suicidal, we have ample evidence that he is deeply paranoid, having killed a number of his close family members whom he believed had turned against him.

The real danger here is if Kim starts testing the waters again by going after regional targets to try to put Trump in his place. Any one of which might be the excuse Trump needs to declare war.

Totally agree here ^

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #94 on: August 14, 2017, 10:50:41 AM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Emphasis on "might," letting South Korea get scorched by artillery fire is obviously not an acceptable outcome...but it might happen anyways if the person we're dealing with is crazy.

GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #95 on: August 14, 2017, 11:01:53 AM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Wait, are we talking about Trump or Kim?

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #96 on: August 14, 2017, 11:15:08 AM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Emphasis on "might," letting South Korea get scorched by artillery fire is obviously not an acceptable outcome...but it might happen anyways if the person we're dealing with is crazy.

Blowing up anything in North Korea would be extremely risky because NK doesn't exist in a vacuum.  It's right on China's doorstep, and China has explicitly said it would side with NK if the US attacked first.  Also, part of the problem is that Kim is watching what is happening to Assad and is getting nervous. 

China has an extremely vested interest in NK not going too far off the rails.  I would bet/hope they will work quietly behind the scenes to keep Kim from doing anything too stupid. 

sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #97 on: August 14, 2017, 11:46:11 AM »
Wait, are we talking about Trump or Kim?

Great point here!

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #98 on: August 14, 2017, 12:42:44 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Wait, are we talking about Trump or Kim?

We're talking about the one who runs a dynastic totalitarian dictatorship and executes people with anti-aircraft guns, not the reality tv star who posts stupid stuff on Twitter.


The two aren't even in the same league.

GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #99 on: August 14, 2017, 02:10:07 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Wait, are we talking about Trump or Kim?

We're talking about the one who runs a dynastic totalitarian dictatorship and executes people with anti-aircraft guns, not the reality tv star who posts stupid stuff on Twitter.


The two aren't even in the same league.

So most of the difference is the system in place to restrain their use of power, not actual personal characteristics?

Because otherwise we're looking at two very similar people:
- narcissist
- puts friends and family into high ranking gov't positions
- demonstrated little grasp of reality
- regularly lies about things that can easily be disproven
- goofy hair cut
- wildly overreacts to criticism
- doesn't act in the best interests of the country he is leading
- trophy wife
- likes to play high stakes games involving nuclear weapons
- Dad was kinda a dick
- Inexplicably likes Dennis Rodman
« Last Edit: August 14, 2017, 02:11:48 PM by GuitarStv »