Author Topic: What does North Korea REALLY want?  (Read 8288 times)

Travis

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #100 on: August 14, 2017, 02:51:30 PM »
Many years ago I read an article, I think in Scientific American, that the US could fight World War 3 with the then Soviet Union solely with cruise missiles, with conventional warheads, say a million, launched over a few hours. This was during the Cold War, and relied on the accuracy available at the time. Spy satellites, then and now, allow the US a clear picture of what is happening on the ground, although I know that there is scope for the observed nation to disguise its actions, or mislead the spy in the sky. Such an attack is a version of Blitzkrieg, or lightning war, long known to the military. The idea is to destroy enemy assets before they can be used.

Say ten thousand cruise missiles, aimed mostly at military targets in N Korea, launched within a few hours. If S Korea forbade such an arsenal on its soil, the US would need to move enough ships with all these cruise missiles off the coast of N Korea, which is not easy.

The Israeli military is already able to shoot down incoming short range missiles, such as Russian Scud missiles fired by Muslim groups. Such anti-missile missiles could be used against missiles with conventional warheads fired by North Korea against Seoul.

All war is risk, but such a blitzkrieg is tempting.

That's a very optimistic view of the situation and our capabilities.  We don't have 10,000 cruise missiles. Even if we did, we don't have the capability of firing them all at once.  Also, the cruise missile is designed for specific target types.  Artillery dug into mountains is not one of them. Neither is mobile or towed artillery.  Figuring out where they are and queuing up a cruise missile attack in a couple hours before they could move again would be a tall order.  We use airplanes for that kind of attack, and we'd have to sort through the North's air defenses first which could take days.  While we have the ability to shoot down incoming short range ballistic missiles, that's not a weapon system the North has a lot of. What they do have are thousands of cannon artillery which cannot be picked out of the air.
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sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #101 on: August 15, 2017, 04:03:25 PM »
We're talking about the one who runs a dynastic totalitarian dictatorship and executes people with anti-aircraft guns, not the reality tv star who posts stupid stuff on Twitter.

The two aren't even in the same league.

The way this is going, I would not bet on it. He maybe posting stupid stuff on Twitter today, but may drag everyone into full blown war with NK or Venezuela (or some other countries) tomorrow. Or he may even cause riots here. He may not execute people directly, but there are plenty of ways to get a lot of American killed.

Maybe we should visit this thread 3.5 years later, then we can decide if they are in the same league or not. 

Sorry, I am going off on a tangent here.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2017, 05:15:09 PM by sequoia »

paddedhat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #102 on: August 15, 2017, 05:02:30 PM »
No, it's far from a tangent. We are talking about a guy, who for the second time in a few days, has stood in front of the nation and gave his tacit approval to the neo-Nazis, KKK members and White Supremacists who engaged in domestic terrorism in Charlottesville. Our president is unbalanced, disturbed, and incapable of leading this nation forward, which clearly puts him in the same class as his counterpart in North Korea.

prognastat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #103 on: August 15, 2017, 05:14:23 PM »
That gives every dictator an incentive to act crazy because then he will get money from the US and free reign to do whatever he wants.

If he's legit crazy, then it's pretty simple, we bomb the hell out of Pyongyang. There's nothing we can do to protect ourselves diplomatically if the person we're dealing with is literally crazy.

So I will take this one step further. What happen if other countries thinks Trump is acting crazy? They have the right to bomb the hell out of Washington? You can not apply one standard to one country but it does not apply that same standard to your own country :)

Of course they have the "right" to attack us, they are sovereign powers. There's no real rules on what sovereign powers can do, because they are sovereign. They can make agreements to restrain themselves, but these are agreements and not the Supreme Law of any land. If Mexico and Canada and whoever wants to attack us, they can cancel all their treaties and march armies right across the border.

That'd be stupid of them, but, hey, they have the right to do it.

Exactly my point. Just because the other side is stupid, does not means we have to lower ourselves and be stupid as well.

Have to? No. But if we think another nation is ruled by a madman and there's no room for a diplomatic solution, it might be wise to blow up his arsenal before he can use it.

Wait, are we talking about Trump or Kim?

We're talking about the one who runs a dynastic totalitarian dictatorship and executes people with anti-aircraft guns, not the reality tv star who posts stupid stuff on Twitter.


The two aren't even in the same league.

So most of the difference is the system in place to restrain their use of power, not actual personal characteristics?

Because otherwise we're looking at two very similar people:
- narcissist
- puts friends and family into high ranking gov't positions
- demonstrated little grasp of reality
- regularly lies about things that can easily be disproven
- goofy hair cut
- wildly overreacts to criticism
- doesn't act in the best interests of the country he is leading
- trophy wife
- likes to play high stakes games involving nuclear weapons
- Dad was kinda a dick
- Inexplicably likes Dennis Rodman

I would say twitter tirades or firing someone aren't quite on the level of execution for criticism. Although I guess firing and firing squad are pretty close lexicologically.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #104 on: August 15, 2017, 05:52:19 PM »
Putin is in that same group, except he doesn't have a goofy haircut.

That is three crazies with nukes.   We in trouble.


GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #105 on: August 15, 2017, 06:08:33 PM »
I would say twitter tirades or firing someone aren't quite on the level of execution for criticism. Although I guess firing and firing squad are pretty close lexicologically.

So most of the difference is the system in place to restrain their use of power, not actual personal characteristics?

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #106 on: August 15, 2017, 06:17:22 PM »
Putin is neither crazy nor an idiot. Trump is an idiot and somewhat unhinged. Kim Jong Un is an absolutely psychopathic tyrant.

Sequoia, even if Trump accidentally starts WWIII and ends the world, he's still not in the same league of KJU. He's just a somewhat deranged dumbass. To take a different historical event, JFK had tremendous moral courage, and if he accidentally killed tens of millions of people in nuclear war, he wouldn't be in the same category as, say, Stalin (who also killed tens of millions, but did it deliberately).

POTUS didn't start WWIII in Syria, though, so I highly doubt he'll start it in NK. I also don't think Trump has the cajones to stake his legacy vs. a million-man army with the world's largest artillery arsenal.

Quote
So most of the difference is the system in place to restrain their use of power, not actual personal characteristics?
No, and you are vastly reaching. To take examples for which we DO have comparisons, Trump's attack on Syria was a limited, measured response. What do you think Kim Jong Un would do in Syria were he to have the world's largest military?

GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #107 on: August 16, 2017, 08:39:29 AM »
POTUS didn't start WWIII in Syria, though, so I highly doubt he'll start it in NK. I also don't think Trump has the cajones to stake his legacy vs. a million-man army with the world's largest artillery arsenal.

Quote
So most of the difference is the system in place to restrain their use of power, not actual personal characteristics?
No, and you are vastly reaching. To take examples for which we DO have comparisons, Trump's attack on Syria was a limited, measured response. What do you think Kim Jong Un would do in Syria were he to have the world's largest military?

If Kim were in the same position as Donald Trump?  With the same advisers/handlers, same chance of personal loss of power for acting really crazy I'd expect similar behaviour as Trump.

Without restraint Kim would probably do some crazy shit with the world's largest military.  He is in absolute power over his country, has nobody who'll point it out to him when he's doing the wrong thing, and there are no repercussions for acting in a tremendously immoral manner.  In a similar position I would expect Donald Trump to act in the same way . . . he has a long documented history of abusing his power for personal gain whenever the opportunity arises.

paddedhat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #108 on: August 16, 2017, 11:15:31 AM »
Since the concept of false equivalency seems to be in the news lately, I think a larger issue is being ignored when it comes to the Trump/Kim comparisons. At some level there is a mistake of defaulting to the logic that Trump can't be that bad, or as bad, since he is a strong leader in the keeping with what we have seen and experienced in our past presidents.  He may be flawed, but there is an equivalency, a base line of what we know our leaders to be. Therefore, comparing him to Kim is ridiculous. The interesting part of that assumption is that the folks that know him best, and seen him in action the longest, know better. There is a reason he had a landslide victory in places like SD, and MT. and got stomped in NYC, with 10% of the vote in Manhattan. It's simple, these are the people that spent forty years watching this egomaniacal man-baby as he robbed small contractors, architects and suppliers on his trophy projects, as he used illegal workers to do the work. They watched him continuously lie, as if the truth was simply a matter of opinion. They watched him degrade women and treat minorities as second class citizens. They watched him defraud innocent people with his university. And they watched a desperate con-man, who would say and do anything to be in the spot light, and adored. In the end they know the Donald, and they expressed their opinion. For any of you who think that this horrendously sad excuse for a leader wouldn't be the next Kim, or Hitler, if circumstances were different, you are sadly mistaken.

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #109 on: August 16, 2017, 02:47:43 PM »
Being a con-man isn't the same as being Hitler or Kim Jong Un. I do not think there is any scenario where Trump would even commit the crimes the US committed in WWII (like interning all the Japanese), let alone the crimes Germany committed (plan to kill a hundred million people, actually kill 12 million people).

I just don't see any evidence that Trump would commit wanton murder and conduct massive purges like either Hitler or KJU. I totally think it's possible he would throw a lot of people in jail if he were allowed too, but that's just not the same. The dictators are massively evil. I think you can take the average death row inmate, put them in the White House, and they still wouldn't do anything as evil as Hitler (and possibly not even KJU).

GuitarStv

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #110 on: August 16, 2017, 03:04:30 PM »
Being a con-man isn't the same as being Hitler or Kim Jong Un. I do not think there is any scenario where Trump would even commit the crimes the US committed in WWII (like interning all the Japanese), let alone the crimes Germany committed (plan to kill a hundred million people, actually kill 12 million people).

I just don't see any evidence that Trump would commit wanton murder and conduct massive purges like either Hitler or KJU. I totally think it's possible he would throw a lot of people in jail if he were allowed too, but that's just not the same. The dictators are massively evil. I think you can take the average death row inmate, put them in the White House, and they still wouldn't do anything as evil as Hitler (and possibly not even KJU).

I agree without about putting a death row inmate in the white house.  There are checks and balances that are set up to limit the ability of an evil and unbalanced person from doing what he wants.  You're currently reaping the benefit of this at the moment.  I look at Trump's history of incitement, and have to disagree with you though.  He is someone who clearly enjoys using his power to get other people hurt in violent ways, particularly minorities, women, and LGBT folks.

jmecklenborg

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #111 on: August 16, 2017, 03:48:47 PM »
Being a con-man isn't the same as being Hitler or Kim Jong Un. I do not think there is any scenario where Trump would even commit the crimes the US committed in WWII (like interning all the Japanese), let alone the crimes Germany committed (plan to kill a hundred million people, actually kill 12 million people).

I just don't see any evidence that Trump would commit wanton murder and conduct massive purges like either Hitler or KJU. I totally think it's possible he would throw a lot of people in jail if he were allowed too, but that's just not the same. The dictators are massively evil. I think you can take the average death row inmate, put them in the White House, and they still wouldn't do anything as evil as Hitler (and possibly not even KJU).

We offered exile to Marcos and he took it. 

People are forgetting that Un was born into his position unlike Hitler, Mao, Saddam, Stalin, etc.  Trump was of course born into massive third-generation wealth, its origins being the brothel money his German-born grandfather earned during the Alaska gold rush. 

paddedhat

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #112 on: August 16, 2017, 03:58:34 PM »
Being a con-man isn't the same as being Hitler or Kim Jong Un. I do not think there is any scenario where Trump would even commit the crimes the US committed in WWII (like interning all the Japanese), let alone the crimes Germany committed (plan to kill a hundred million people, actually kill 12 million people).

I just don't see any evidence that Trump would commit wanton murder and conduct massive purges like either Hitler or KJU. I totally think it's possible he would throw a lot of people in jail if he were allowed too, but that's just not the same. The dictators are massively evil. I think you can take the average death row inmate, put them in the White House, and they still wouldn't do anything as evil as Hitler (and possibly not even KJU).



I'm willing to give a lot of weight to Cheeto Mussolini's obsession with authoritarian rule, and his total lack of moral fiber, which clearly indicate that he has the capacity, and even the desire, to be a hell of a lot more evil that his current situation allows him to be. He is well aware that Duterte is running the Phillippines as a murderous dictator, yet he calls him a friend, and takes time to personally congratulate him on his success. He has had a long term fascination with authoritarian rule, and dictators. The fact that he kept a book of Hitler's speeches at his bedside is something he has confirmed. He, against any rational advice, took the time to call Erdogan and congratulate him on brutally crushing a rebellion, and turn Turkey into a Muslim dictatorship. Then there is the one that might, mercifully, finish him off. That being his absolute infatuation, his homoerotic, brofair with Putin. Putin views trump as a useful idiot, and rightly so. Trump views Putin as some sort of god, and absolutely refused to utter a negative word about his hero. It's almost too fucked up to even process.  No, this disturbed SOB would become one out of control dictator the second he found a big enough flaw in our system, that allowed him to declare himself as such.  I know it will never happen, but it's pretty clear that it's the stuff of his fantasies.

whatupjeffy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #113 on: August 18, 2017, 12:53:33 AM »
I don't really know what he wants, but I definitely know that it directly affects S.Korea

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #114 on: August 18, 2017, 11:41:11 AM »
Quote
do is drive a diesel sub up to the US coast and use some sort of retrofitted artillery to lob the device, or just full on kamikaze the sub

NK subs do not currently have missile launch capabilities and it's unlikely that a NK sub could reach the US coast undetected.

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sequoia

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #115 on: August 18, 2017, 02:07:38 PM »
Quote
do is drive a diesel sub up to the US coast and use some sort of retrofitted artillery to lob the device, or just full on kamikaze the sub

NK subs do not currently have missile launch capabilities and it's unlikely that a NK sub could reach the US coast undetected.

US mainland? I like to think probably no. But Hawaii, Guam or Alaska probably yes. They may not able to launch missile but that does not rule out suicide bomber style attack. Remember, when you have nuke, you do not need to get close to destroy/cause significant damage to the target.

A Definite Beta Guy

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #116 on: August 18, 2017, 02:22:10 PM »
Quote
do is drive a diesel sub up to the US coast and use some sort of retrofitted artillery to lob the device, or just full on kamikaze the sub

NK subs do not currently have missile launch capabilities and it's unlikely that a NK sub could reach the US coast undetected.

US mainland? I like to think probably no. But Hawaii, Guam or Alaska probably yes. They may not able to launch missile but that does not rule out suicide bomber style attack. Remember, when you have nuke, you do not need to get close to destroy/cause significant damage to the target.

So, not a naval expert, but they probably wouldn't be able to get ANYWHERE. The problem for North Korea is that we KNOW where their subs are. Not only that, but we can monitor activity and tell when their subs are about to put to sea. So if we can see that, we can put one of OUR subs outside their harbor.

So their sub is never, ever hidden, no matter where it goes, because it will always have a US sub following it.

Again, not a naval expert, but listening to some with more knowledge than me: before Soviet missile subs would leave port, they'd have their surface vessels blast the hell out of the surrounding area with sonar to drive out any lurking US subs, so the missile subs could leave unmolested.

The mention of a diesel sub is probably a reference to the newly advanced AIP diesel subs that are so quiet they can literally go up to a US carrier and blow it up. But:
1. NK doesn't have AIP subs (to my knowledge?)
2. AIP subs cannot go across the Pacific.

So, at least for the moment, I'm not worried about NK nuke subs. But, like ICBMs...it's a 1960s-era technology, they can figure it out if they really want to.

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #117 on: August 18, 2017, 03:45:22 PM »
Quote
do is drive a diesel sub up to the US coast and use some sort of retrofitted artillery to lob the device, or just full on kamikaze the sub

NK subs do not currently have missile launch capabilities and it's unlikely that a NK sub could reach the US coast undetected.

US mainland? I like to think probably no. But Hawaii, Guam or Alaska probably yes. They may not able to launch missile but that does not rule out suicide bomber style attack. Remember, when you have nuke, you do not need to get close to destroy/cause significant damage to the target.

So, not a naval expert, but they probably wouldn't be able to get ANYWHERE. The problem for North Korea is that we KNOW where their subs are. Not only that, but we can monitor activity and tell when their subs are about to put to sea. So if we can see that, we can put one of OUR subs outside their harbor.

So their sub is never, ever hidden, no matter where it goes, because it will always have a US sub following it.

Again, not a naval expert, but listening to some with more knowledge than me: before Soviet missile subs would leave port, they'd have their surface vessels blast the hell out of the surrounding area with sonar to drive out any lurking US subs, so the missile subs could leave unmolested.

The mention of a diesel sub is probably a reference to the newly advanced AIP diesel subs that are so quiet they can literally go up to a US carrier and blow it up. But:
1. NK doesn't have AIP subs (to my knowledge?)
2. AIP subs cannot go across the Pacific.

So, at least for the moment, I'm not worried about NK nuke subs. But, like ICBMs...it's a 1960s-era technology, they can figure it out if they really want to.

 They haven't launched an ICBM off a sub or any other type of projectile, they haven't launched anything with a nuclear war head, many years to get to the point of using subs. 



Leisured

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #118 on: August 19, 2017, 06:27:44 AM »
In my original post, 14 Sep, I pointed out the possibility of using a large number of cruise missiles in a preemptive strike on NK military facilities. I showed what could be done in principle. A cruise missile can deliver a hardened half tonne warhead to penetrate the earth and rock next to a NK military site dug into a hillside. The charge explodes after a slight delay, so the shock is transmitted by the rock and soil. The RAF, in the final months of WW2, dropped 10 tonne 'earthquake bombs' from Lancaster to destroy dug in facilities.

Cruise missiles are attractive because they allow long range bombardment without risking aircrew. I doubt if all NK artillery is in hardened storage. However, once cruise missiles in a surprise attack, destroy the NK air force on the ground, then large US aircraft can fly over NK safely and drop 10 tonne earthquake bombs on hardened sites, including ICBM sites.

Once the US has air superiority over NK, then mobile NK artillery can be targeted with laser designators from US aircraft, to guide cruise missiles to a mobile target.

China and Russia will of course have to be on board. The NK nuclear threat covers all of China and most of Russia. China seems unable to understand that NK is only valuable as a buffer state, and if the NK leadership goes mad, then this does not do China any good.

This is all in principle, and it is not impossible.

Leisured

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Re: What does North Korea REALLY want?
« Reply #119 on: August 19, 2017, 07:03:22 AM »
Something lurked in the back of my mind, and I now know what is, a proposed platform for launching a lot of cruise missiles quickly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenal_ship

Proposed, not built.