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Other => Off Topic => Topic started by: Ron Scott on December 09, 2024, 09:43:56 AM

Title: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 09, 2024, 09:43:56 AM
I hate the fact that Trump won, and Elon certainly seems to be off his meds, but I am always willing to have fresh sets of eyes look at cost cutting in the government.

For those of you who believe there is opportunity for improvement, where do we start?

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 09, 2024, 09:55:16 AM
Tax cuts for the wealthy

Ethanol subsidies
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Kris on December 09, 2024, 10:27:25 AM
Not sure a second Trump administration is going to do much about this.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/federal-bloat-is-at-a-sixty-year-high/
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: GilesMM on December 09, 2024, 11:12:39 AM
Eliminate the military.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Morning Glory on December 09, 2024, 11:15:10 AM
Matthew Desmond had a whole chapter about this in one of his books. Basically a list of subsidies and programs that help people who don't need help, that we prioritize instead of programs that will actually reduce poverty. I don't remember them all but I think the mortgage interest deduction was the biggest.

Trump would rather just run up the debt to fund his tax cuts for billionaires again, meanwhile repubs in congress will claim we don't have enough money for programs like school lunch.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: tooqk4u22 on December 09, 2024, 11:18:41 AM
Eliminate the military.

Yeah, that's a good idea...sure!   

But, it could be re-tooled for the modern era, its global scope could be reigned in to be truly defense of the country and not defending against the spread of ideals that are in opposition to the US, maybe pull back on being the global police.

The problem is that it is globally connected world and the natural resources that power the new age are located in some not so great parts of the world.

So yeah, military is pretty important.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: tooqk4u22 on December 09, 2024, 11:22:22 AM
Matthew Desmond had a whole chapter about this in one of his books. Basically a list of subsidies and programs that help people who don't need help, that we prioritize instead of programs that will actually reduce poverty. I don't remember them all but I think the mortgage interest deduction was the biggest.

Trump would rather just run up the debt to fund his tax cuts for billionaires again, meanwhile repubs in congress will claim we don't have enough money for programs like school lunch.

Mortgage interest deduction is one of them and since the Trump Tax package has become even more so with the doubling of the standard deduction, although SALT offset that to some extent. 

I would say the EV tax credit is one of them as it is a tax credit, although it has been diminished for this argument with recent additions of income limits (although can be circumvented if leased).

Also, tax treatment of carried interest.  Firms will say that is the incentive to take the risk and deploy capital except that those that get the carried interest actually take no risk - put in 1-5% of the fund, take 3-6% in fees annually for asset/fund management, and deploy other investors money.   It has nothing to do with whether or not an investment happens - the capital gains tax treatment for the investors does have an impact.  Investment goes to crap, then management (carried interest) just doesn't make as much money and investors lose their money.

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: bacchi on December 09, 2024, 11:57:57 AM
Federal flood insurance (NFIP) -- The rules can be tightened up (or eliminate it altogether).

Federal highway administration (FHA) can be budgeted to only as much as the gas tax revenue. (BEVs will be a problem eventually but they're only ~1.1% currently.(1))

Really, this is only picking at the edges. The real money goes to entitlements and defense.


(1) https://www.edmunds.com/electric-car/articles/how-many-electric-cars-in-us.html
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: GuitarStv on December 09, 2024, 12:07:03 PM
Eliminate the military.

Yeah, that's a good idea...sure!   

But, it could be re-tooled for the modern era, its global scope could be reigned in to be truly defense of the country and not defending against the spread of ideals that are in opposition to the US, maybe pull back on being the global police.

The problem is that it is globally connected world and the natural resources that power the new age are located in some not so great parts of the world.

So yeah, military is pretty important.

There has been a lot of bad done in the name of the US by using the military . . . but there are enough belligerent countries and groups just waiting for an opening to run wild that it's hard for me to imagine the world being a better place with complete elimination of it.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 10, 2024, 01:09:34 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

Most of the Federal budget, including social security, is mandatory spending of $3,800,000,000,000 per year.  Defense gets another $800,000,000,000 of discretionary spending, and there's $917,000,000,000 of non-defense spending.  I'm using zeros because the words used for these amounts are ridiculous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States#/media/File:2023_US_Federal_Budget_Infographic.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: nereo on December 10, 2024, 04:39:23 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.


I’ve always viewed it as an entitlement because people (for legitimate reasons) feel assume they are entitled to those payments.


Most of the Federal budget, including social security, is mandatory spending of $3,800,000,000,000 per year.  Defense gets another $800,000,000,000 of discretionary spending, and there's $917,000,000,000 of non-defense spending.  I'm using zeros because the words used for these amounts are ridiculous.


The numbers are hard to conceptualize and they are so large precisely because we are a massively wealthy country with a quarter of a billion wage earners. GDP is almost 28 trillion. As a percentage of total GDP the US tax revenue is middle of the pack.

Which components are ridiculously high or ridiculously low depend on your values.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: LaineyAZ on December 10, 2024, 06:56:27 AM
I'm afraid PBS will be on the chopping block.  I remember candidate Mitt Romney complaining about them years ago. 
No idea why Republicans have a special hatred for public broadcasting. 

Department of Education will be drastically reduced.  Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be gone.

I also think many services will be privatized vs. being eliminated, e.g., National Weather Service, National Park Service, etc.
Everything's for sale!
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Fomerly known as something on December 10, 2024, 07:25:52 AM
In addition to mortgage interest I’d say the elimination of 529s.  They are good for the same group of people, the upper middle class and up.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: NorCal on December 10, 2024, 07:46:41 AM
The DOD has somewhere around $70B a year in spending that the DOD says it doesn’t need to spend, but Congress keeps approving. I believe this is mostly things like bases that could be closed, or weapons programs like the A10 that are outdated, but have strong political backing.

This is somewhere around 7-8% of the DOD budget.

The Inflation Reduction Act was paid for mostly by capping the amount Medicare will pay for certain medications. There’s a lot of room to do more of that.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 10, 2024, 08:01:21 AM
Given the hardwired costs associated with SS and Medicare, and the importance of the military with the challenges we face today, It seems hard to find traditional big ticket reductions. So I’d think someone like Musk would want to make a shoot-for-the-stars effort involving new tech, AI, etc.

We know, for example, that ~25% of Medicare expenses go to last-year-of-life care. Maybe medtech and AI can whittle this down in a positive, win-win way?

Same with military: We know future wars will be fought with AI and that these new solutions will likely make the existing high-expense tools like aircraft carriers etc. less valuable. Start modeling that?

I’m not sure I see a lot of savings if we don’t work smarter. It’s easy to poopoo ideas that involve new innovations as pie-in-the-sky, but you gotta start somewhere.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: HPstache on December 10, 2024, 08:14:56 AM
If he's serious about it, the best answer is military.  Maybe the MAGA-heads will believe it's a good thing then, since Trump did it.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: nereo on December 10, 2024, 08:32:56 AM
It seems hard to find traditional big ticket reductions. So I’d think someone like Musk would want to make a shoot-for-the-stars effort involving new tech, AI, etc.


Clearly you have not followed Musk's cost-cutting measures implemented at his own companies, nor the proposals that the GOP has put forward and attempted to implement (with some success) over the last few decades.

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: NorCal on December 10, 2024, 08:48:15 AM

We know, for example, that ~25% of Medicare expenses go to last-year-of-life care. Maybe medtech and AI can whittle this down in a positive, win-win way?


Death panels are always fun political conversation starters.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: cpa cat on December 10, 2024, 08:50:44 AM
We could get rid of the tax exemption for Churches and it would be a net positive.

A true non-profit church wouldn't be paying taxes after expenses anyway if it were treated as a business, which means only for-profit churches are benefiting from the tax exemption.

Charitable ministries (like homeless shelters, rehabs, etc.) would qualify for tax-exemption under the non-religious 501(c)(3) rules.

Hypothetically, one could argue that churches may receive fewer donations if donations weren't an itemized deduction, but since most people don't itemize, I think that's debatable. People who participate in religious organizations aren't doing it for the tax deduction, and churches that offer a valuable service would still be funded by their members.

According to stats, fewer than 20% of Americans attend a religious service regularly, so why are we subsidizing these organizations?

Alas, I have a feeling the GOP-centered DOGE won't suggest this. :D 
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Telecaster on December 10, 2024, 09:05:11 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

"Entitlement" in this context means you are legally entitled to it.   
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: tooqk4u22 on December 10, 2024, 09:06:45 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

Most of the Federal budget, including social security, is mandatory spending of $3,800,000,000,000 per year.  Defense gets another $800,000,000,000 of discretionary spending, and there's $917,000,000,000 of non-defense spending.  I'm using zeros because the words used for these amounts are ridiculous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States#/media/File:2023_US_Federal_Budget_Infographic.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States

Sure, we all put money in as do our employers on our behalf but there is a pit of ponzi scheme aspect as current workers fund current retirees, its not like the money goes into individual accounts. 

Also, given break points lower income earners fair better than higher income earners in the contributions vs. benefits calculus, which is ok as it is "Social" Security. 

Benefits shouldn't be cut in $ terms, as to your point its not entitlement, but full retirement age could be increased again like back in 1983 when it was raised from 65 to 67, and it was graduated.

There are also 8-9 million people on Disability, which falls under the Social part, but is population that is receiving benefits early and not contributing as much.  Its a pretty painful process to get but even those with "Back issues" get declined twice get an attorney and then get perm disability without much ongoing monitoring for continued need. 


Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: tooqk4u22 on December 10, 2024, 09:20:31 AM
Given the hardwired costs associated with SS and Medicare, and the importance of the military with the challenges we face today, It seems hard to find traditional big ticket reductions. So I’d think someone like Musk would want to make a shoot-for-the-stars effort involving new tech, AI, etc.

We know, for example, that ~25% of Medicare expenses go to last-year-of-life care. Maybe medtech and AI can whittle this down in a positive, win-win way?

Same with military: We know future wars will be fought with AI and that these new solutions will likely make the existing high-expense tools like aircraft carriers etc. less valuable. Start modeling that?

I’m not sure I see a lot of savings if we don’t work smarter. It’s easy to poopoo ideas that involve new innovations as pie-in-the-sky, but you gotta start somewhere.

I think aircraft carriers and subs are the most effective balance of show of strength, flexible response and deterrence that a country could have, and there aren't that many carriers - 25 in total, 11 of those are the US(all nuclear) - France has the only other nuclear carrier but its pretty small.

Capping or slowing the rate of growth of defense and other spending will help, and evaluating all programs for efficiencies and needs.  Just slowing the rate of growth can have a material impact over 10 years without having to make drastic cuts immediately.   Sort of reverse compounding.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Boll weevil on December 10, 2024, 09:34:03 AM
- I’d like to see the IRS generate a listing of how many times each paragraph of the tax code is used each year. Paragraphs infrequently used are likely obsolete or represent carveouts to specific special interests… both should require justification to be kept.

- If they don’t already, allow government programs (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, etc) to negotiate drug prices (I think medicare gained that ability recently but the Republicans want to take it back away; not sure about Medicaid or the VA). If you’re that insistent on not allowing direct government negotiation, is it possible to set up an arrangement with the health insurance companies where we can piggyback off of any discounts they’ve negotiated?  While you’re at it, audit those companies that hawk senior supplies on TV and will bill medicare for you (for instance, wasn’t there a scooter company saying if Medicare rejected it, you could still keep it? What are the circumstances where it’s viable to literally advertise that on national TV?)

- I imagine there’s a lot that can be done by tinkering with the costs of implementation and values of benefits that go into whether implementing a particular rule is “worth it”. Obviously there will be “winners” and “losers” in making these changes, but there are already “winners” and “losers” under the current math.




Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: bacchi on December 10, 2024, 09:35:23 AM
Capping or slowing the rate of growth of defense and other spending will help, and evaluating all programs for efficiencies and needs.  Just slowing the rate of growth can have a material impact over 10 years without having to make drastic cuts immediately.   Sort of reverse compounding.

This is the place to start. It's an insta-cut of 2-3% across the board. Cutting anything without a super-majority of support is very difficult -- just look at the responses in this thread.

I suspect that, even if the Dept of Education, etc., is cut, we'll make up for it with more tax cuts.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 10, 2024, 11:00:31 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

I’ve always viewed it as an entitlement because people (for legitimate reasons) feel assume they are entitled to those payments.

There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 10, 2024, 11:04:29 AM
- I’d like to see the IRS generate a listing of how many times each paragraph of the tax code is used each year. Paragraphs infrequently used are likely obsolete or represent carveouts to specific special interests… both should require justification to be kept.
Speaking of cuts and the IRS, there is one way to dramatically increase government revenues without making cuts.  Fund the IRS.  The IRS has the best return on investment imaginable - they get 5x to 9x the amount invested, by catching tax cheats.  Funding the IRS gets the government more revenue from people who cheat on their taxes.  Unfortunately I don't have a lobbyist, but I suspect the people cheating on their taxes do.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Telecaster on December 10, 2024, 12:37:04 PM
There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.

A lot of people think this, but it is wrong.  Social Security has never functioned or intended to be like a bank account.   Social Security is insurance.   More specifically, it is an inflation-adjusted annuity with survivor's and disability benefits.   In fact, what we are calling Social Security is formally known as the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program.   We call it Social Security for short, because OASDI is administered by the Social Security Administration.   
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: tooqk4u22 on December 10, 2024, 12:45:48 PM
- I’d like to see the IRS generate a listing of how many times each paragraph of the tax code is used each year. Paragraphs infrequently used are likely obsolete or represent carveouts to specific special interests… both should require justification to be kept.
Speaking of cuts and the IRS, there is one way to dramatically increase government revenues without making cuts.  Fund the IRS.  The IRS has the best return on investment imaginable - they get 5x to 9x the amount invested, by catching tax cheats.  Funding the IRS gets the government more revenue from people who cheat on their taxes.  Unfortunately I don't have a lobbyist, but I suspect the people cheating on their taxes do.

Pretty sure that one is not happening, as the main target of the IRS will be people like the president and those economically like him as they are the ones that have the resources to get "creative" with taxes.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: nereo on December 10, 2024, 01:03:17 PM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

I’ve always viewed it as an entitlement because people (for legitimate reasons) feel assume they are entitled to those payments.

There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.

It's not a terribly robust comparison though.  The money one pays via SS taxes are very rarely 1:1 what they will get out of it, and that's by design.  If you are a high wage earner most of your life you are unlikely to recoup what you "paid into the system'.  If you die single a week before your first disbursement you're SOL.  If you are middle class and live to be 100 it's likely the best ROI you will ever have. 

The brilliance of social security is that they've convinced people across the political spectrum that it's their money which they paid into the system and therefor should never be cut.  They even deliberately selected language to reinforce this notion, mailing 'benefit verification statements' and referring to future payments as "obligations'.
Roosevelt even commented that his administration designed the SS payroll tax system so that "no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program"

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: cpa cat on December 10, 2024, 01:47:27 PM
- I’d like to see the IRS generate a listing of how many times each paragraph of the tax code is used each year. Paragraphs infrequently used are likely obsolete or represent carveouts to specific special interests… both should require justification to be kept.

I disagree with this statement. A large amount of the tax code exists to stop people from entering into abusive tax schemes. The fact that it's infrequently used doesn't mean it should be eliminated. It may simply mean it's doing its job. The IRS can't give you a number on how many people were prevented from doing something by a line in the tax code, or the Regulations that went with that line, or the Tax Court cases that followed, but that doesn't make that line in the tax code obsolete.

For example: Only about 6000 estate tax returns are filed each year. Not very many to justify an entire section of the code. But that doesn't mean estate tax shouldn't exist. It also doesn't mean that more estates should be subject to estate tax. [Although you will find arguments for both positions.]
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: GilesMM on December 10, 2024, 01:52:31 PM
Given the hardwired costs associated with SS and Medicare, and the importance of the military with the challenges we face today, It seems hard to find traditional big ticket reductions. So I’d think someone like Musk would want to make a shoot-for-the-stars effort involving new tech, AI, etc.

We know, for example, that ~25% of Medicare expenses go to last-year-of-life care. Maybe medtech and AI can whittle this down in a positive, win-win way?

Same with military: We know future wars will be fought with AI and that these new solutions will likely make the existing high-expense tools like aircraft carriers etc. less valuable. Start modeling that?

I’m not sure I see a lot of savings if we don’t work smarter. It’s easy to poopoo ideas that involve new innovations as pie-in-the-sky, but you gotta start somewhere.

I think aircraft carriers and subs are the most effective balance of show of strength, flexible response and deterrence that a country could have, and there aren't that many carriers - 25 in total, 11 of those are the US(all nuclear) - France has the only other nuclear carrier but its pretty small.

Capping or slowing the rate of growth of defense and other spending will help, and evaluating all programs for efficiencies and needs.  Just slowing the rate of growth can have a material impact over 10 years without having to make drastic cuts immediately.   Sort of reverse compounding.


It would be good to have a plan to reduce the ship count.  Would be nice to work toward 2-3 carriers and a handful of subs.  Shrink the Navy to under 100 ships.  Same with air force - drop from 1300 fighters to 300.  The army can be converted to mostly drones and robots I guess.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 10, 2024, 02:06:11 PM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

I’ve always viewed it as an entitlement because people (for legitimate reasons) feel assume they are entitled to those payments.

There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.

It's not a terribly robust comparison though.  The money one pays via SS taxes are very rarely 1:1 what they will get out of it, and that's by design.  If you are a high wage earner most of your life you are unlikely to recoup what you "paid into the system'.  If you die single a week before your first disbursement you're SOL.  If you are middle class and live to be 100 it's likely the best ROI you will ever have. 

The brilliance of social security is that they've convinced people across the political spectrum that it's their money which they paid into the system and therefor should never be cut.  They even deliberately selected language to reinforce this notion, mailing 'benefit verification statements' and referring to future payments as "obligations'.
Roosevelt even commented that his administration designed the SS payroll tax system so that "no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program"

Social Security is set up to resemble an insurance product but because it is run by a government with the authority to create money (issue debt) and to destroy money (taxation).

A private market insurance product might look outwardly like Social Security but its internal works are fundamentally different: insurance companies are, by law, required to build reserves invested at low risk (mostly government bonds) with maturities matching the expected liabilities (liability matching). This is why insurance companies are allowed to use the face value plus cumulative coupon of these bonds instead of market value - a bond that is held to maturity has a known nominal value and insurance companies do just that (stable value funds are good example for that kind of accounting).
With that said, it becomes apparent that Social Security is anything but a Ponzi scheme because beneficiaries are not paid by taxes taken in.

Payroll taxes paid is money destroyed once taken in; promised benefits are a form of government debt issued to future beneficiaries and most certainly represent an obligation to pay albeit subject to complex rules which work in the way an insurance would work.

Benefits paid out are actually new money created (deficit spending).
The Social Security trust fund is actually a fiction but a rather useful one because it allows one to assess long term budget impact.

The reason that the trust fund is a fiction is because the Treasury issues the special bonds that go into the trust fund which the Treasury is holding - so the treasury is issuing debt to itself and thus the trust fund is no more than a placeholder to account for the difference between benefits paid out (money created, deficit spending) and taxes taken in (money destroyed) over time.

All this is perfectly sound and pretty straightforward.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: maizefolk on December 10, 2024, 02:10:14 PM
My view is that the fact that I've paid a bunch of money into social security to support people of my parents and grandparents generation does NOT create a legal or moral obligation for people of my (hypothetical) children or grand children's generation to pay money into social security to support me.

Social security could go away, or (more likely) get means tested at any time and I won't be that upset about not seeing any money myself.

The social security taxes I've paid and will continue to pay are an investment in not having old people living on the streets or eating cat food, and I consider that well worth what I've paid whether or not I ever see a dime of benefits from future generations doing the same for me.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 10, 2024, 02:32:01 PM
My view is that the fact that I've paid a bunch of money into social security to support people of my parents and grandparents generation does NOT create a legal or moral obligation for people of my (hypothetical) children or grand children's generation to pay money into social security to support me.

Social security could go away, or (more likely) get means tested at any time and I won't be that upset about not seeing any money myself.

The social security taxes I've paid and will continue to pay are an investment in not having old people living on the streets or eating cat food, and I consider that well worth what I've paid whether or not I ever see a dime of benefits from future generations doing the same for me.

The thing is that the benefits arising from paying SS tax are indeed a government obligation like any other debt issued by the government.

That there is something like a trust fund and that SS is made to look like an insurance product does not mean that payment obligations to SS beneficiaries are fundamentally different from debt issued in form of government bonds or similar.
In that sense, entitlements derived from paying SS taxes, or the flip side of the coin which is the government obligation to pay benefits, are no different than entitlements to payments from the government that are derived from payments to the government for the purpose of acquiring another form of government debt, i.e. treasuries etc.
 
Social security payouts are deficit spending like everything else the government spends money on and the trust fund is simply a means to assess budget neutrality over the long term.

By this token, it also becomes clear that the trust fund can't really run out of money (there is no money in that fund) but can indicate when SS deficit spending is not budget neutral anymore.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: maizefolk on December 10, 2024, 02:54:44 PM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries. There's no legal obligation to pay the complete amounts dictated by the current formula, nor any legal or logistical barrier to changing the formula, although there are certainly political barriers to doing so.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 10, 2024, 03:56:19 PM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The state is not a private or public company and functions in a fundamentally different way.

How could you even figure out that the government has run out of money?

Is there an account holding all the taxes collected?

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money and that is why the discussion of possible default never is about having depleted the account of taxes collected (because such an account doesn't exist because the money collected in taxes is destroyed upon collection; only applies to federal not state taxes because only the federal government can create new money) but always about the debt ceiling, which is the limit imposed by congress on the creation of new money.


If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries. There's no legal obligation to pay the complete amounts dictated by the current formula, nor any legal or logistical barrier to changing the formula, although there are certainly political barriers to doing so.

The US defaulting on SS obligations would be a massive blow to its creditworthiness because government obligations not met send a loud message and the market surely knows that SS obligations already established are nothing more than a special kind of bond.

That is why the discussion of cutting SS benefits always is about lowering future and not already established entitlements.

Of course, this is a matter of political decision making and economic consequences, but reneging on established obligations is extremely dangerous, politically and economically.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: NorCal on December 10, 2024, 04:42:19 PM
I'm trying to figure out what's likely & practically going to change given the constraints on governing.  I don't know Washington that well, but here's the fact pattern I see:

1. While the 2017 Trump tax cuts were mostly permanent for business, the individual rate cuts expire at the end of 2025.  My quick internet search says that making these cuts permanent would cost around $4T for the next decade (aka roughly $400B/yr).  In practice, they'll probably temporarily extend them as a way to shrink the price tag.
2.  Given the Republicans slim majority in both the House and Senate, they'll either have to use a Budget Reconciliation ($0 net impact to the budget) OR kill the filibuster to pass any type of tax cut.
3.  Therefore, they need to come up with $400B annually in spending cuts (or other tax code changes) just to avoid taxes going up.  They could cut this roughly in half if they were just extending the cuts for another 5 years. 
5.  For context, the entire DOD's budget is just over $800B annual, and the remainder of the discretionary budget is a little over $900B.

Bottom line:  The GOP needs to kill someone's sacred cows just to prevent taxes from going up. 

My personal suspicion is that the entire GOP conference will turn into a circular firing squad long before they find spending cuts large enough to pay for extending the 2017 cuts. 
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 10, 2024, 04:46:29 PM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries.

The US government can’t run out of or exhaust it’s ability to spend US dollars, and is ultimately not constrained by line item budgeting.

The government can always continue to make SS benefit payments and would not “spend tax collections” to do so. Taxing and bond issuance are simply devices to take money out of circulation. Our “leaders” and their media asswipes bullshit us into thinking that government spending is like your household spending—but unless you can print money it’s just not.

The only problem with having the government create money and give it away arises when there’s not enough goods and services to spend it on. That creates inflation.

If we’re able to increase productivity (more goods and services at current input levels) we’re good to go.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 10, 2024, 05:03:09 PM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries.

The US government can’t run out of or exhaust it’s ability to spend US dollars, and is ultimately not constrained by line item budgeting.

The government can always continue to make SS benefit payments and would not “spend tax collections” to do so. Taxing and bond issuance are simply devices to take money out of circulation. Our “leaders” and their media asswipes bullshit us into thinking that government spending is like your household spending—but unless you can print money it’s just not.

The only problem with having the government create money and give it away arises when there’s not enough goods and services to spend it on. That creates inflation.

If we’re able to increase productivity (more goods and services at current input levels) we’re good to go.

Do not misquote me - the entire point is that the government can only exhaust its ability to create new money if congress does not approve of a higher debt ceiling once the previous one has been reached.

The government defaulting would be a political move, and, curiously, the public does understand this on some visceral level given the backlash those shenanigans have faced in the past.

Here is the full quote:

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money and that is why the discussion of possible default never is about having depleted the account of taxes collected (because such an account doesn't exist because the money collected in taxes is destroyed upon collection; only applies to federal not state taxes because only the federal government can create new money) but always about the debt ceiling, which is the limit imposed by congress on the creation of new money.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 11, 2024, 01:57:49 AM
Next year I expect we'll hear about "social security" called an "entitlement".  What gets ignored is that I put money into social security, and when I retire, I take my money out.  The discussion will ignore that social security tax funds social security payments.  There are special cases, but for most people, that isn't an entitlement - they are just getting their money back.

I’ve always viewed it as an entitlement because people (for legitimate reasons) feel assume they are entitled to those payments.

There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.

It's not a terribly robust comparison though.  The money one pays via SS taxes are very rarely 1:1 what they will get out of it, and that's by design.  If you are a high wage earner most of your life you are unlikely to recoup what you "paid into the system'.  If you die single a week before your first disbursement you're SOL.  If you are middle class and live to be 100 it's likely the best ROI you will ever have. 

The brilliance of social security is that they've convinced people across the political spectrum that it's their money which they paid into the system and therefor should never be cut.  They even deliberately selected language to reinforce this notion, mailing 'benefit verification statements' and referring to future payments as "obligations'.
Roosevelt even commented that his administration designed the SS payroll tax system so that "no damn politician can ever scrap my social security program"
I didn't want to tangent earlier, but I agree most people receive less than what they paid in.  I seem to recall the formula applied 90% of income in the lowest "bracket", and about 1/7th of the highest bracket of income.  And then you get more or less depending on if you outlive your life expectancy or not.  Once someone's income exceeds $168k, they stop paying social security tax on that income.  As to the naming, I think retirees wouldn't care what it was called as long as the checks kept coming.


There's the definition "a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group", which lumps all payments and benefits into the word entitlement.  But that strips away the basic nature of it as a bank account.  When someone works, social security taxes are deducted from their wages.  That is like depositing to a bank account.  Congress then steals the money... I mean and then the taxes are deposited into the social security trust fund.  When someone reaches retirement, the government mails them checks.  I'm comparing this to making withdrawals from a bank account.

A lot of people think this, but it is wrong.  Social Security has never functioned or intended to be like a bank account.   Social Security is insurance.   More specifically, it is an inflation-adjusted annuity with survivor's and disability benefits.   In fact, what we are calling Social Security is formally known as the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program.   We call it Social Security for short, because OASDI is administered by the Social Security Administration.
Annuities do not require insurance.  Over 80% of the money is paid out to retired workers, which is the situation I described.  Survivors and disability payments each make up a small fraction of overall payments.  For someone on disability, it is an insurance contract that pays out as an annuity.  But for over 80% of the money, people who paid in receive annuity payments.
https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 11, 2024, 05:31:34 AM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries.

The US government can’t run out of or exhaust it’s ability to spend US dollars, and is ultimately not constrained by line item budgeting.

The government can always continue to make SS benefit payments and would not “spend tax collections” to do so. Taxing and bond issuance are simply devices to take money out of circulation. Our “leaders” and their media asswipes bullshit us into thinking that government spending is like your household spending—but unless you can print money it’s just not.

The only problem with having the government create money and give it away arises when there’s not enough goods and services to spend it on. That creates inflation.

If we’re able to increase productivity (more goods and services at current input levels) we’re good to go.

Do not misquote me - the entire point is that the government can only exhaust its ability to create new money if congress does not approve of a higher debt ceiling once the previous one has been reached.

The government defaulting would be a political move, and, curiously, the public does understand this on some visceral level given the backlash those shenanigans have faced in the past.

Here is the full quote:

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money and that is why the discussion of possible default never is about having depleted the account of taxes collected (because such an account doesn't exist because the money collected in taxes is destroyed upon collection; only applies to federal not state taxes because only the federal government can create new money) but always about the debt ceiling, which is the limit imposed by congress on the creation of new money.

The debt ceiling is simply another political contrivance and is certainly NOT what the ”ability” to pay SS is about. In the real world it’s about keeping inflation in check.

And FWIW—When the federal government receives taxes from us the money is set as a credit in their account at the treasury. This money is effectively taken out of current circulation. When the federal government spends money it debits its account at the treasury and credits an account in a commercial bank. The adds money into circulation.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 11, 2024, 09:03:53 AM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries.

The US government can’t run out of or exhaust it’s ability to spend US dollars, and is ultimately not constrained by line item budgeting.

The government can always continue to make SS benefit payments and would not “spend tax collections” to do so. Taxing and bond issuance are simply devices to take money out of circulation. Our “leaders” and their media asswipes bullshit us into thinking that government spending is like your household spending—but unless you can print money it’s just not.

The only problem with having the government create money and give it away arises when there’s not enough goods and services to spend it on. That creates inflation.

If we’re able to increase productivity (more goods and services at current input levels) we’re good to go.

Do not misquote me - the entire point is that the government can only exhaust its ability to create new money if congress does not approve of a higher debt ceiling once the previous one has been reached.

The government defaulting would be a political move, and, curiously, the public does understand this on some visceral level given the backlash those shenanigans have faced in the past.

Here is the full quote:

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money and that is why the discussion of possible default never is about having depleted the account of taxes collected (because such an account doesn't exist because the money collected in taxes is destroyed upon collection; only applies to federal not state taxes because only the federal government can create new money) but always about the debt ceiling, which is the limit imposed by congress on the creation of new money.

The debt ceiling is simply another political contrivance and is certainly NOT what the ”ability” to pay SS is about. In the real world it’s about keeping inflation in check.

Once the debt ceiling is reached the ability of creating new money is effectively exhausted until the ceiling is raised again by Congress - messing with the debt ceiling is probably the crudest and least workable approach to manage the money supply, i.e. control of inflation etc.

Quote
And FWIW—When the federal government receives taxes from us the money is set as a credit in their account at the treasury. This money is effectively taken out of current circulation. When the federal government spends money it debits its account at the treasury and credits an account in a commercial bank. The adds money into circulation.

That is incorrect, when the federal government has figured out how much tax you owe (duh...), it is recorded the General Account of the Treasury as a debt you owe.
Once you have paid your taxes your liability goes to zero as does your record in the General Account. This is the step where the money is destroyed (= taken out of circulation).

All that's left is your tax receipt which is also recorded in the General Account and serves as the record of incoming funds which, together with outgoing fund receipts, allows for assessing overall balance - these are accounting tools no more and no less.

When the government has to fund outgoing payments, for example to fund its own operating accounts at commercial banks, it creates new money and that is recorded in the General Account as government debt.

If this sounds odd, consider how taking out a loan from a commercial bank works:
The bank approves the loan and turns around to sell government bonds back to the Treasury and the Treasury creates new money to buy these bonds which goes into the bank's account.
The new money appears in your account as does a credit note with the exact amount and a coupon attached, ready to be spent.
Once you pay back the loan the balance disappears from your account and your liability (credit note + interest) goes to zero.
The paid off loan appears as a positive position in the bank's account and the bank turns around and buys back the bonds from the treasury creating a government liability at that instant, as well as a record of payment received in the General account with the money effectively destroyed (taken out of circulation).

What you are describing is the false analogy between a sovereign government's control of the money supply and its methods of internal accounting, and private households/businesses who do not have the ability to create new money to match their liabilities - this is a fundamental difference that is not understood by many.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 11, 2024, 09:44:59 AM
We disagree.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 11, 2024, 09:58:23 AM
We disagree.

Fundamentally, I should say.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on December 11, 2024, 10:56:14 AM
Did someone mention raising the debt ceiling?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoS52fVtVQM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx5mE9XPcWw
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: sixwings on December 11, 2024, 12:20:22 PM
Eliminate the military.

Yeah, that's a good idea...sure!   

But, it could be re-tooled for the modern era, its global scope could be reigned in to be truly defense of the country and not defending against the spread of ideals that are in opposition to the US, maybe pull back on being the global police.

The problem is that it is globally connected world and the natural resources that power the new age are located in some not so great parts of the world.

So yeah, military is pretty important.

SO much about the military "world police" isn't about the spread of  ideals, but about control of the flow of resources. The US military basically controls all shipping and the flow of goods across the world. This cements america as the worlds most important country and consumer and weilds both soft and hard power which is very beneficial to americas consumption. There's obviously a lot of bloat in the military budget that could and should get cut, but it would be very bad for america to give up that control of resource flow to China.

The military is also a social program. People without a lot of education or future can join the army, get paid to serve America, build skills, and eventually get discharged and move on with their lives. Cutting that program is actually pretty impactful.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 11, 2024, 01:46:09 PM
This piece is about the impact of major cost cutting on Trump country:

Budget overhaul could cut deep in Trump country
By Andy Sullivan and Ally J. Levine
Published Dec. 11, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has tasked billionaire Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy with finding deep cuts to the $6.2 trillion U.S. federal budget. It may not be easy: the two are likely to discover that any substantial reductions would have a deep impact across the country, especially in the states that voted to return Trump to the White House.


https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/BUDGET/xmvjbqgmkvr/?lctg=63f53ca6fb5bf83d07046add
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: LaineyAZ on December 13, 2024, 07:24:43 AM
This piece is about the impact of major cost cutting on Trump country:

Budget overhaul could cut deep in Trump country
By Andy Sullivan and Ally J. Levine
Published Dec. 11, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has tasked billionaire Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy with finding deep cuts to the $6.2 trillion U.S. federal budget. It may not be easy: the two are likely to discover that any substantial reductions would have a deep impact across the country, especially in the states that voted to return Trump to the White House.


https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/BUDGET/xmvjbqgmkvr/?lctg=63f53ca6fb5bf83d07046add

Here's the phrase that gets me:  "... likely to discover ..."

How do you campaign on a policy and then only "discover" after the election what the likely outcome will be? 

I'm expecting that Trump v.2 will backpedal hard on this, or, if they forge ahead, that maybe, just maybe, their supporters will finally wake up. 
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: GuitarStv on December 13, 2024, 07:34:52 AM
How do you campaign on a policy and then only "discover" after the election what the likely outcome will be? 

You don't research any policy and simply say shit that you think will be popular without any real plan to follow through, knowing that most of your followers are entertained enough by you saying stupid shit that they will never remember anything else.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 13, 2024, 08:48:21 AM
If the government doesn't have enough money to pay the interest its bonds it is legally in default with all sorts of bad consequences.

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money.

If the government doesn't have enough money in a specific budget category (current payroll taxes plus trust fund), it pays less money out to social security beneficiaries.

The US government can’t run out of or exhaust it’s ability to spend US dollars, and is ultimately not constrained by line item budgeting.

The government can always continue to make SS benefit payments and would not “spend tax collections” to do so. Taxing and bond issuance are simply devices to take money out of circulation. Our “leaders” and their media asswipes bullshit us into thinking that government spending is like your household spending—but unless you can print money it’s just not.

The only problem with having the government create money and give it away arises when there’s not enough goods and services to spend it on. That creates inflation.

If we’re able to increase productivity (more goods and services at current input levels) we’re good to go.

Do not misquote me - the entire point is that the government can only exhaust its ability to create new money if congress does not approve of a higher debt ceiling once the previous one has been reached.

The government defaulting would be a political move, and, curiously, the public does understand this on some visceral level given the backlash those shenanigans have faced in the past.

Here is the full quote:

The answer is that the government has to exhaust its ability to create new money and that is why the discussion of possible default never is about having depleted the account of taxes collected (because such an account doesn't exist because the money collected in taxes is destroyed upon collection; only applies to federal not state taxes because only the federal government can create new money) but always about the debt ceiling, which is the limit imposed by congress on the creation of new money.

The debt ceiling is simply another political contrivance and is certainly NOT what the ”ability” to pay SS is about. In the real world it’s about keeping inflation in check.

Once the debt ceiling is reached the ability of creating new money is effectively exhausted until the ceiling is raised again by Congress - messing with the debt ceiling is probably the crudest and least workable approach to manage the money supply, i.e. control of inflation etc.

Quote
And FWIW—When the federal government receives taxes from us the money is set as a credit in their account at the treasury. This money is effectively taken out of current circulation. When the federal government spends money it debits its account at the treasury and credits an account in a commercial bank. The adds money into circulation.

That is incorrect, when the federal government has figured out how much tax you owe (duh...), it is recorded the General Account of the Treasury as a debt you owe.
Once you have paid your taxes your liability goes to zero as does your record in the General Account. This is the step where the money is destroyed (= taken out of circulation).

All that's left is your tax receipt which is also recorded in the General Account and serves as the record of incoming funds which, together with outgoing fund receipts, allows for assessing overall balance - these are accounting tools no more and no less.

When the government has to fund outgoing payments, for example to fund its own operating accounts at commercial banks, it creates new money and that is recorded in the General Account as government debt.

If this sounds odd, consider how taking out a loan from a commercial bank works:
The bank approves the loan and turns around to sell government bonds back to the Treasury and the Treasury creates new money to buy these bonds which goes into the bank's account.
The new money appears in your account as does a credit note with the exact amount and a coupon attached, ready to be spent.
Once you pay back the loan the balance disappears from your account and your liability (credit note + interest) goes to zero.
The paid off loan appears as a positive position in the bank's account and the bank turns around and buys back the bonds from the treasury creating a government liability at that instant, as well as a record of payment received in the General account with the money effectively destroyed (taken out of circulation).

What you are describing is the false analogy between a sovereign government's control of the money supply and its methods of internal accounting, and private households/businesses who do not have the ability to create new money to match their liabilities - this is a fundamental difference that is not understood by many.

For anyone interested in what I am talking about, here is a short video explaining modern monetary theory (MMT) as well as a link to a PDF.

There are no ifs or buts, this is how it works and most other takes on macroeconomics, particularly from the right wing nutter faction, are simply fantasies and utter nonsense when it comes to how a fiat currency works:


What is modern monetary theory
Richard J Murphy

You can’t discuss macroeconomics without knowing about modern monetary theory. So, what is it all about? In this longer-than-usual video I offer my explanation. You won’t regret finding out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_vNAY2Nrm0


Modern monetary theory: an explanation
Professor Richard Murphy
April 2023

Modern monetary theory (hereafter, MMT) is an explanation of the way in which money works in an economy.
It also explains the consequent impact that the best use of money, using this understanding, might have on behaviour in that economy.

The core suggestion made by MMT is that a government is constrained by the real productive capacity of its economy and not by the availability of money, which it can always create.

Secondary insights are that money is created by government spending and is destroyed by taxation.


https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Modern-monetary-theory-v2.pdf
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: sixwings on December 13, 2024, 09:17:30 AM
This piece is about the impact of major cost cutting on Trump country:

Budget overhaul could cut deep in Trump country
By Andy Sullivan and Ally J. Levine
Published Dec. 11, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump has tasked billionaire Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy with finding deep cuts to the $6.2 trillion U.S. federal budget. It may not be easy: the two are likely to discover that any substantial reductions would have a deep impact across the country, especially in the states that voted to return Trump to the White House.


https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/BUDGET/xmvjbqgmkvr/?lctg=63f53ca6fb5bf83d07046add

Here's the phrase that gets me:  "... likely to discover ..."

How do you campaign on a policy and then only "discover" after the election what the likely outcome will be? 

I'm expecting that Trump v.2 will backpedal hard on this, or, if they forge ahead, that maybe, just maybe, their supporters will finally wake up.

or he continues to blow up the deficit and raiding government programs for his and his rich friends benefit while talking about being tough on spending publicly and conservatives are too stupid and stuck up his ass to know any better.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Financial.Velociraptor on December 13, 2024, 09:20:48 AM

For anyone interested in what I am talking about, here is a short video explaining modern monetary theory (MMT) as well as a link to a PDF.

There are no ifs or buts, this is how it works and most other takes on macroeconomics, particularly from the right wing nutter faction, are simply fantasies and utter nonsense when it comes to how a fiat currency works:


What is modern monetary theory
Richard J Murphy

You can’t discuss macroeconomics without knowing about modern monetary theory. So, what is it all about? In this longer-than-usual video I offer my explanation. You won’t regret finding out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_vNAY2Nrm0


Modern monetary theory: an explanation
Professor Richard Murphy
April 2023

Modern monetary theory (hereafter, MMT) is an explanation of the way in which money works in an economy.
It also explains the consequent impact that the best use of money, using this understanding, might have on behaviour in that economy.

The core suggestion made by MMT is that a government is constrained by the real productive capacity of its economy and not by the availability of money, which it can always create.

Secondary insights are that money is created by government spending and is destroyed by taxation.


https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Modern-monetary-theory-v2.pdf

I did my undergrad in Economics and completed in 1998.  MMT was a very new and very controversial idea at the time that I roundly rejected and clung to the Monetarist theories of Friedman. 

I watched with bewilderment as Mosler, formerly a not particularly well known bond trader, made a ton of money with his MMT making bets for himself and his investors that looked like suicide to a Monetarist.  And he did it with sleepy sovereign debt! 

I've come to accept that at least some of MMT is valid.  I don't accept 100% of the findings (yet) but moved strongly in that direction as I watched the things the model predicts come true with COVID and the subsequent stimulus while the things modeled by the Monetarists just plain didn't happen.  Correlation is not causation but I damn well can see when a large number of conforming data points start to establish a "trend line".  Can recommend Mosler's book. 

Note: there are some left leaning ideologues, that misinterpret MMT to mean that the government can and even should print as much money as possible.  Mosler does not intend that AT ALL and it would certainly be inflationary (including per the MMT model).  We can print one hell of a lot more money than the Monetarists estimate however.  And this can be leveraged if the new money is spent on productive purposes, especially infrastructure spending.   
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 13, 2024, 10:06:42 AM
...

Note: there are some left leaning ideologues, that misinterpret MMT to mean that the government can and even should print as much money as possible.  Mosler does not intend that AT ALL and it would certainly be inflationary (including per the MMT model).  We can print one hell of a lot more money than the Monetarists estimate however.  And this can be leveraged if the new money is spent on productive purposes, especially infrastructure spending.

Right, and that's why the DOGE project is a dangerous folly - but hey, if the objective is to crash the economy and plunge the country into misery, go right ahead.
In any case, what else is to be expected with Musk, Ramaswamy and Marjorie Taylor Greene in charge.

From the PDF:


There is a widespread political obsession with controlling the level of government debt within economies. Although fiat currencies effectively disappeared throughout the world after the USA abandoned the gold standard in 1971 there remains an apparent feeling that all government debt is created by borrowing and that the debt in question must be repaid because it only exists by depriving the private sector economy of the capital that it needs to fund productive economic activity. MMT shatters the myths underpinning these claims in five ways.

Firstly, MMT makes clear, as the previous section explains, that the only borrowing that a government need undertake when financing its activities is from its central bank.

Second, as the previous section again explains, MMT makes clear that what is now called ‘the national debt’ is in fact the money supply created by the government.
Third, as again should be clear from the previous section, the supposed ‘borrowing’ by the government is no such thing: it is actually banking activity.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, what MMT makes clear is that ‘balancing the books’ makes no sense. In a growing economy with modest inflation there will be a need for a continually growing money supply. That means that not all the new money that the government creates through its spending into the economy needs to be, or should be, withdrawn from use in that economy. Growth will require that there be more money in use and it is the job of the government as curator of the currency to supply that money. The only way that it can do that is by running deficits i.e. by spending more than it taxes. There is, then, no need for tax revenues to match government spending. There is, instead, very good reason why they should not.


https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Modern-monetary-theory-v2.pdf
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: GuitarStv on December 13, 2024, 10:26:11 AM
Counterpoint - a cryptobro told me that fiat is bad because only a deflationary currency that nobody has ever really used for anything other than destroying the planet is the way of the future.


So . . . checkmate.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 13, 2024, 05:15:19 PM
Counterpoint - a cryptobro told me that fiat is bad because only a deflationary currency that nobody has ever really used for anything other than destroying the planet is the way of the future.


So . . . checkmate.

Fools they are.

I did miss an error in the source I quoted though, sorry about the confusion it may have caused:

Although non-fiat fiat currencies effectively disappeared throughout the world after the USA abandoned the gold standard in 1971 there remains an apparent feeling that all government debt is created by borrowing and that the debt in question must be repaid because it only exists by depriving the private sector economy of the capital that it needs to fund productive economic activity. MMT shatters the myths underpinning these claims in five ways.

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Fomerly known as something on December 13, 2024, 08:29:26 PM
Well and nots forget making up alternative facts.

Sen Joni Ernst Recently said only 6% of federal employees go into the office, but close to 50% of federal employees are ineligible for telework (or remote work).  I’ll admit I was in the office for less than a week in October, I also only slept in my bed for 7 days that month.  I was not on any sort of leave.  So I wasn’t working from the office but I sure as heck wasn’t working from home. 
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 14, 2024, 07:03:56 AM
I have to smile at the infatuation some people have with MMT—“Modern Monetary Theory”, which is certainly not modern, is argued with as many fiscal goals as monetary ones, and is less a theory than a simple explanation of government accounting practices.

Here’s the thing: While it is obviously true the US government has no need to raise money through taxation or bond issuance to “spend” as it wishes, the volume of money in the economy needs to be on par with the availability of goods and services or prices will increase naturally to force a balance (inflation).

And keep in mind the fact that both liberals and conservatives have played this game for many decades. A liberal government can “spend” money on social programs to the breaking point, but conservatives can enact significant tax cuts that have the same monetary effect—and then claim the social programs are “too expensive”.  It’s all the same shit…

I just wish the few politicians who actually understand all this would stop the obfuscation and focus on the real opportunity of growing productivity. Productivity growth is the best tool to defeat inflation in the left-vs.-right contest.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 14, 2024, 07:07:57 AM
I have to smile at the infatuation some people have with MMT—“Modern Monetary Theory”, which is certainly not modern, is argued with as many fiscal goals as monetary ones, and is less a theory than a simple explanation of government accounting practices.

...

Right, no voodoo economics or PhD required.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: PeteD01 on December 14, 2024, 07:16:30 AM
...

Here’s the thing: While it is obviously true the US government has no need to raise money through taxation or bond issuance to “spend” as it wishes, the volume of money in the economy needs to be on par with the availability of goods and services or prices will increase naturally to force a balance (inflation).

...
And yet, there are still a lot of fools who continue to equate government operations with households/businesses and draw harebrained conclusions from this false premise, while a simple assessment of government accounting and the nature of government debt leads to straightforward explanations.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Ron Scott on December 14, 2024, 07:24:36 AM
I have to smile at the infatuation some people have with MMT—“Modern Monetary Theory”, which is certainly not modern, is argued with as many fiscal goals as monetary ones, and is less a theory than a simple explanation of government accounting practices.

Here’s the thing: While it is obviously true the US government has no need to raise money through taxation or bond issuance to “spend” as it wishes, the volume of money in the economy needs to be on par with the availability of goods and services or prices will increase naturally to force a balance (inflation).

And keep in mind the fact that both liberals and conservatives have played this game for many decades. A liberal government can “spend” money on social programs to the breaking point, but conservatives can enact significant tax cuts that have the same monetary effect—and then claim the social programs are “too expensive”.  It’s all the same shit…

I just wish the few politicians who actually understand all this would stop the obfuscation and focus on the real opportunity of growing productivity. Productivity growth is the best tool to defeat inflation in the left-vs.-right contest.


Right, no voodoo economics or PhD required.

Further reading for MMT enthusiasts:
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Telecaster on December 17, 2024, 09:20:49 PM
We can print one hell of a lot more money than the Monetarists estimate however.  And this can be leveraged if the new money is spent on productive purposes, especially infrastructure spending.

I just wish the few politicians who actually understand all this would stop the obfuscation and focus on the real opportunity of growing productivity. Productivity growth is the best tool to defeat inflation in the left-vs.-right contest.

Spending money on productive purposes does increase productivity.   
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Scandium on December 18, 2024, 08:14:41 AM
I think the best part about this idiotic DOGE.. thing? Is that it's promoting efficiency, by starting, from scratch, another version of an organization that already exists: the Congressional Budget Office! And that it has two leaders! Seems like the first recommendation should be to reduce the top level headcount at DOGE by 50%, then shut itself down do reduce waste on duplicated efforts!
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: NorCal on December 18, 2024, 11:00:55 AM
I think the best part about this idiotic DOGE.. thing? Is that it's promoting efficiency, by starting, from scratch, another version of an organization that already exists: the Congressional Budget Office! And that it has two leaders! Seems like the first recommendation should be to reduce the top level headcount at DOGE by 50%, then shut itself down do reduce waste on duplicated efforts!

It does promise to be comically ineffective.  The amount of spending that can be controlled by the executive branch isn't $0, but it's not massive either.  While I'm sure the DOGE bros will push the bounds of legality, I don't suspect they will fundamentally alter the balance of power between the executive and legislative branches.  So far their big idea is a return to office mandate.

Which means their proposals have to go through Congress.  So let's look at the state of Congress.

The makeup of the House & Senate is a little different next year, but not massively so.  There's no majority big enough to push through major legislation.  Just this week the Republican "majority" had to cut a bipartisan deal with $10B in farm aid and $100B in disaster aid just to keep the government from shutting down.

The idea that the next Congress is going to pass major legislation in a way that negatively impacts vested interests in most Congressional districts is simply comical.  The next Congress will be barely able to keep the basic operations of government going, much less pass major budget cuts. 

They might figure something out when they realize that many of Trump's prior tax cuts expire at the end of 2025.  But given the size of the tax package needed, this is probably going to be a bipartisan bill instead of a party-line bill. 
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: zolotiyeruki on December 18, 2024, 02:09:15 PM
Here are a couple thoughts on my part:
1) It's important to recognize that the whole "efficiency" thing isn't just about whacking whole departments, it's about cutting out the bloat within departments.  It's also about eliminating politically-motivated procurement requirements or incentives that drive costs higher, e.g. preferences for minority- or woman- or veteran-owned vendors.  I would argue that anything DEI-related (like this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/818735300) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/813144100) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/805792700) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/799708300), at salaries nearing $200k/year(!)) needs to go.  At best, it's a waste of money IMO, and at worst, it actively destroys productivity and morale.  The lions share of anything social-media or PR-related can likely go as well.  Use-it-or-lose-it budgets need to go away.  Procurement needs to be streamlined.  How many hundreds of billions of dollars were wasted or defrauded during the pandemic?

2) What departments or major spending should go?  Definitely Education is a valid target.  You're going to have to work really hard to convince me of the net benefit of the federal DoE.  They take tax dollars in, dole taxpayer dollars out, and employ a bunch of people in the process.  Taxpayer-subsidized student loans are definitely on the menu.  They subsidize college attendance, not graduation or marketable skills or knowledge, and have contributed to the tremendous inflation in college costs over the past 50 years.  Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government.  Department of Labor, too.

3) The military is a bit of a mess.  Too much brass, too many pet projects, too much bureaucracy in procurement.  Too many cooks in the kitchen, too many pie-in-the-sky dreams driving unreasonable requirements.  A friend who worked on a particular fighter jet told me that there was a senator who wanted his rather petite granddaughter to be able to fly a new fighter design.  The cost to re-engineer just one of the fighter's systems to accommodate her physiology was in the eight figures.  The process of procuring an existing, off-the-shelf product is stupidly complex--one part of the organization says they want it, another has to write up requirements saying "we need a device that does X, Y, and Z," a third department then takes those requirements and then looks around to see if such a widget exists, a fourth department controls the money, and a fifth has to do the approvals, and nobody wants to stick their neck out.

All that said, US military spending is near its lowest level, as a share of GDP, in nearly a century (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget).  The only time our military spending has been lower (as a share of GDP) was in the few years leading up to 9/11.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: bacchi on December 19, 2024, 09:43:00 AM
Here are a couple thoughts on my part:
1) It's important to recognize that the whole "efficiency" thing isn't just about whacking whole departments, it's about cutting out the bloat within departments.  It's also about eliminating politically-motivated procurement requirements or incentives that drive costs higher, e.g. preferences for minority- or woman- or veteran-owned vendors.

Let's get rid of politically-motivated opioid grants and programs like https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/dislocated-workers/grants/health-emergency. There was a grant of $1.5B just a few months ago.

Quote
Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government. 

I'm all for reducing the DOT but when DOGE is discussing efficiency, it's also talking about budget. Can your town widen the local road without relying on funding from elsewhere?

Quote
Department of Labor, too.

That sounds like a FAFO move.

Quote
3) The military is a bit of a mess.  Too much brass, too many pet projects, too much bureaucracy in procurement.

There's a base near me that's on the chopping block every time they talk about closures but the local congressling saves it. The DOD wants to close it but blah-blah-local-economy.

Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: zolotiyeruki on December 19, 2024, 10:35:55 AM
Quote
Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government. 
I'm all for reducing the DOT but when DOGE is discussing efficiency, it's also talking about budget. Can your town widen the local road without relying on funding from elsewhere?
My vision, if you want to call it that, is that instead of taxes going all the way to DC, then distributed back to the municipalities (minus the cost of a bunch of bureaucrats), the funding be both generated and spent locally.  I.e. trade federal taxes for local taxes.
Quote
Quote
Department of Labor, too.
That sounds like a FAFO move.
Can you elaborate?  Unlike my teenage son, in a disagreement, I prefer to be right rather than to win, so if I'm off base, I'd love to hear why/how so I can correct my views.
Quote
Quote
3) The military is a bit of a mess.  Too much brass, too many pet projects, too much bureaucracy in procurement.
There's a base near me that's on the chopping block every time they talk about closures but the local congressling saves it. The DOD wants to close it but blah-blah-local-economy.
And that's a prime example, IMO, of people (wrongly) thinking of the federal government's role.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: sixwings on December 19, 2024, 10:48:06 AM
Great, let's do it. A lot of the funding gets sucked out of rich blue areas and then redistributed to the poor rural red areas. Let california and new york keep their money, let Louisiana and West Virginia burn and their bridges and roads collapse. It's what people in those areas want. Counties with a few thousand want to fund their 50M road and bridge upgrades instead of having the wealthier and more populated blue cities and states do it? I say we let them!
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Psychstache on December 19, 2024, 10:52:12 AM
Here are a couple thoughts on my part:
1) It's important to recognize that the whole "efficiency" thing isn't just about whacking whole departments, it's about cutting out the bloat within departments.  It's also about eliminating politically-motivated procurement requirements or incentives that drive costs higher, e.g. preferences for minority- or woman- or veteran-owned vendors.  I would argue that anything DEI-related (like this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/818735300) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/813144100) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/805792700) or this (https://www.usajobs.gov/job/799708300), at salaries nearing $200k/year(!)) needs to go.  At best, it's a waste of money IMO, and at worst, it actively destroys productivity and morale.  The lions share of anything social-media or PR-related can likely go as well.  Use-it-or-lose-it budgets need to go away.  Procurement needs to be streamlined.  How many hundreds of billions of dollars were wasted or defrauded during the pandemic?

2) What departments or major spending should go?  Definitely Education is a valid target.  You're going to have to work really hard to convince me of the net benefit of the federal DoE.  They take tax dollars in, dole taxpayer dollars out, and employ a bunch of people in the process.  Taxpayer-subsidized student loans are definitely on the menu.  They subsidize college attendance, not graduation or marketable skills or knowledge, and have contributed to the tremendous inflation in college costs over the past 50 years.  Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government.  Department of Labor, too.

3) The military is a bit of a mess.  Too much brass, too many pet projects, too much bureaucracy in procurement.  Too many cooks in the kitchen, too many pie-in-the-sky dreams driving unreasonable requirements.  A friend who worked on a particular fighter jet told me that there was a senator who wanted his rather petite granddaughter to be able to fly a new fighter design.  The cost to re-engineer just one of the fighter's systems to accommodate her physiology was in the eight figures.  The process of procuring an existing, off-the-shelf product is stupidly complex--one part of the organization says they want it, another has to write up requirements saying "we need a device that does X, Y, and Z," a third department then takes those requirements and then looks around to see if such a widget exists, a fourth department controls the money, and a fifth has to do the approvals, and nobody wants to stick their neck out.

All that said, US military spending is near its lowest level, as a share of GDP, in nearly a century (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget).  The only time our military spending has been lower (as a share of GDP) was in the few years leading up to 9/11.

So your first point talks about using a scalpel, and the next point is cannon. You call out the DoEd and talk about student loans but ignore all of the other programs they are engaged in, like Special Education and Head Start. How do you decide the scalpel/cannon method for which department?
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: zolotiyeruki on December 19, 2024, 10:57:16 AM
So your first point talks about using a scalpel, and the next point is cannon. You call out the DoEd and talk about student loans but ignore all of the other programs they are engaged in, like Special Education and Head Start. How do you decide the scalpel/cannon method for which department?
That's a great question, and plays into a much broader question of "how do you determine if a program has been/will be worth it?"  Politicians LOVE to spend money in order to appear to be solving a problem, but there never seems to be a feedback mechanism to determine if a program was effective and what, if any, unintended consequences followed.

So here's a counter-question: why ought Head Start and SpEd be taxed/funded/administered on a federal level, rather than on a state level?
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: bacchi on December 19, 2024, 11:28:15 AM
Quote
Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government. 
I'm all for reducing the DOT but when DOGE is discussing efficiency, it's also talking about budget. Can your town widen the local road without relying on funding from elsewhere?
My vision, if you want to call it that, is that instead of taxes going all the way to DC, then distributed back to the municipalities (minus the cost of a bunch of bureaucrats), the funding be both generated and spent locally.  I.e. trade federal taxes for local taxes.

I'm all for it but you've gotta realize that less populated areas won't have enough tax base to maintain let alone add new roads.

There's a county road in California that was washed out and the county is waiting on millions for repairs (discussed in one of Real Estate threads). It probably shouldn't be repaired because it only serves a handful of people but that's an example of infrastructure that would be delayed if not shelved.

Edit:
Quote from: https://lookout.co/mountain-charlie-road-santa-cruz-mountains-residents-still-stranded-and-impacted-by-road-failures-still-seeking-answers/
Yet even that [$100M in county debt] will not cover everything: Mountain Charlie Road represents only one emergency road repair out of 80 that the county has no money and, until now, no plan to repair.

This type of scheme would disproportionally hinder rural areas and small towns.

Quote
Quote
Quote
Department of Labor, too.
That sounds like a FAFO move.
Can you elaborate?  Unlike my teenage son, in a disagreement, I prefer to be right rather than to win, so if I'm off base, I'd love to hear why/how so I can correct my views.

The DOL was created in the early 1900s because of labor/management disputes. It's responsible for OSHA and fair pay and employment discrimination and child labor laws. Cutting the DOL budget by 75% (or whatever) sounds great, and it would save $11B, but workers would quickly realize that the DOL is necessary when they're in a disagreement with their employer about overtime pay and factory safety.

In other words,

"We don't need this oversight! We trust our company HR!"
<a year passes>
"Hey, why are so many kids working on the slaughter house floor?"
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Morning Glory on December 19, 2024, 11:51:58 AM
So your first point talks about using a scalpel, and the next point is cannon. You call out the DoEd and talk about student loans but ignore all of the other programs they are engaged in, like Special Education and Head Start. How do you decide the scalpel/cannon method for which department?
That's a great question, and plays into a much broader question of "how do you determine if a program has been/will be worth it?"  Politicians LOVE to spend money in order to appear to be solving a problem, but there never seems to be a feedback mechanism to determine if a program was effective and what, if any, unintended consequences followed.

So here's a counter-question: why ought Head Start and SpEd be taxed/funded/administered on a federal level, rather than on a state level?

Because it levels the playing field between kids in rich and poor states/areas. I can afford to move if federal special Ed funding gets cut and my state or county doesn't (or can't afford to) pick up the slack, but most people cannot.

There's also talk of that getting kicked over to health and human services (not back to the states) if the DOE gets cut, and I really don't want Kennedy and his quack theories anywhere near my children.

There's plenty of international data suggesting that early childhood education is a great monetary investment for countries in terms of future tax revenue,  reduced crime, etc. in addition to quality of life for children and families (just google it). It would be penny wise-pound foolish to cut it.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: sixwings on December 19, 2024, 12:34:46 PM
Quote
Housing can go, as can much of Transportation.  The fact that my town of 30,000 residents is waiting for a federal handout to widen a local road is just stupid.  The management of roads needs to be pushed to more local levels of government. 
I'm all for reducing the DOT but when DOGE is discussing efficiency, it's also talking about budget. Can your town widen the local road without relying on funding from elsewhere?
My vision, if you want to call it that, is that instead of taxes going all the way to DC, then distributed back to the municipalities (minus the cost of a bunch of bureaucrats), the funding be both generated and spent locally.  I.e. trade federal taxes for local taxes.

I'm all for it but you've gotta realize that less populated areas won't have enough tax base to maintain let alone add new roads.

There's a county road in California that was washed out and the county is waiting on millions for repairs (discussed in one of Real Estate threads). It probably shouldn't be repaired because it only serves a handful of people but that's an example of infrastructure that would be delayed if not shelved.

This type of scheme would disproportionally hinder rural areas and small towns.

Quote
Quote
Quote
Department of Labor, too.
That sounds like a FAFO move.
Can you elaborate?  Unlike my teenage son, in a disagreement, I prefer to be right rather than to win, so if I'm off base, I'd love to hear why/how so I can correct my views.

The DOL was created in the early 1900s because of labor/management disputes. It's responsible for OSHA and fair pay and employment discrimination and child labor laws. Cutting the DOL budget by 75% (or whatever) sounds great, and it would save $11B, but workers would quickly realize that the DOL is necessary when they're in a disagreement with their employer about overtime pay and factory safety.

In other words,

"We don't need this oversight! We trust our company HR!"
<a year passes>
"Hey, why are so many kids working on the slaughter house floor?"

Conservatives at this point are mostly morons who think that they can do it alone without government help because they are fine without realizing that the government is ensuring they avoid disaster. Because the government stops these issues from happening conservatives think the government isn’t needed because the bad things didn’t happen. These morons have fucked around for too long and now it’s time to find out. In 2020 Biden voting counties accounted for 70% of the economic activity in the country, I haven’t seen anything from 2024 but I doubt it’s changed much. Conservatives benefit massively from the generosity and redistribution from blue areas to red areas while hating on the coastal elites who make their lifestyle possible.

Let’s do this, time to find out, let’s stop the cash flow from wealthy blue areas to poor red areas. Without having to bail out Florida after every hurricane California and NY can instead invest in housing and solve the homeless problems conservatives are always bitching about (while having never visited), and people on the florida panhandle can figure out how to fund their repair efforts after the first hurricane blows through. Maybe if Ron Destntis begs Newsom and calls him daddy on TV he might toss some cash his way. Let the communities of a few hundred people in WV figure out how to rebuild the bridge that connects them to town without blue voters money.

Conservatives have forgotten what these government programs due to fund their rural lifestyle because they take it for granted. Let these morons put their face on the stove to see if it’s hot (it’s very hot).
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Telecaster on December 19, 2024, 01:29:39 PM
Here are a couple thoughts on my part:
1) It's important to recognize that the whole "efficiency" thing isn't just about whacking whole departments, it's about cutting out the bloat within departments. 

Agree and I did a lot government work in my career and boy I've got some ideas how to improve things.  But this project is vastly, and I mean vastly, more difficult and complicated that Elon and Trump seem to grasp.    There are reasons why every government department exists and why every dollar is spent.   The reasons aren't always good, but there are reasons and the reasons don't go away because you don't like them.   

For example, one of the big headaches around government procurement are all the rules designed to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse.    Getting rid of those rules would make everything cheaper and more efficient, but then there would be more waste, fraud, and abuse, and people would want new rules to end waste, fraud, and abuse.   

And you can't just whack a department without rolling the responsibilities somewhere else.   For example, you could get rid of Department of Education.  But our economy requires an educated workforce, and you can't have a educated workforce without spending public dollars.   Somebody has to administer those dollars.   

As a presidential candidate Rick Perry promised to eliminate the Department of Energy.    Trump appointed him DOE secretary with an eye on reform.   However, one Perry was appointed and learned about the things DoE does, he became a full throated advocate.   

And I've seen this movie before.  In 2016 Trump promised to do the same things.   He promised to balance the budget and completely pay off the national debt in eight years.   Of course, deficits under Trump exploded.   Trump also promised to reduce government regulations by 70%.   Guess what?  He didn't.   I didn't believe him then, and I don't believe him now.   
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Sailor Sam on December 19, 2024, 01:54:33 PM
For example, one of the big headaches around government procurement are all the rules designed to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse.    Getting rid of those rules would make everything cheaper and more efficient, but then there would be more waste, fraud, and abuse, and people would want new rules to end waste, fraud, and abuse.   

My god, the motherfucking hoops we jump through in order to spend money. The general public has no earthly idea. The only thing worse than this stupidity would be removing the hoops altogether. Though, I could definitely get behind reducing a few of the hoops.

Right now, in order to make sure there are zero missed IT procurements, we're required to submit an IT checklist for all purchases. My XO just submitted a Purchase Order, with attached IT checklist, for bolts, screws, nails, filters, UV lights, etc. That particularly stupidity is just stupidity.

Your Humble Government Servant,
AboutTo NotBePaid
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: Just Joe on December 19, 2024, 02:33:05 PM
So your first point talks about using a scalpel, and the next point is cannon. You call out the DoEd and talk about student loans but ignore all of the other programs they are engaged in, like Special Education and Head Start. How do you decide the scalpel/cannon method for which department?
That's a great question, and plays into a much broader question of "how do you determine if a program has been/will be worth it?"  Politicians LOVE to spend money in order to appear to be solving a problem, but there never seems to be a feedback mechanism to determine if a program was effective and what, if any, unintended consequences followed.

So here's a counter-question: why ought Head Start and SpEd be taxed/funded/administered on a federal level, rather than on a state level?

Because it levels the playing field between kids in rich and poor states/areas. I can afford to move if federal special Ed funding gets cut and my state or county doesn't (or can't afford to) pick up the slack, but most people cannot.

There's also talk of that getting kicked over to health and human services (not back to the states) if the DOE gets cut, and I really don't want Kennedy and his quack theories anywhere near my children.

There's plenty of international data suggesting that early childhood education is a great monetary investment for countries in terms of future tax revenue,  reduced crime, etc. in addition to quality of life for children and families (just google it). It would be penny wise-pound foolish to cut it.

As a resident in a red state, I know enough about state's like our's to be reminded when discussing "state's rights" that some states were very slow to get on board with various national efforts that benefited people's health and equal rights. Some states might back slide on rights and protections if given the opportunity. Sometimes feels like banning books and school vouchers might be test situations to gauge voter's reactions.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: seattlecyclone on December 19, 2024, 02:38:29 PM
Use-it-or-lose-it budgets need to go away.

Have you ever served on a board that was responsible for making a budget? A budget is a reflection of your organization's priorities; you have money that you intend to deploy with a purpose. In general you don't want departments coming in significantly under budget. There's always a long list of worthy things people would like to do that nevertheless don't make the cut for inclusion in the budget. Every dollar you allocate to some department or project that doesn't spend it is a dollar that could have been put toward something else if you had known in advance the first department wouldn't need it.

From the perspective of a budget writer, if some department didn't spend some significant fraction of their budget, I absolutely want to drill down into why that was, double-check their next budget request to see if the underspending is likely to reoccur, and reduce their next allocation if so.

Now, this means that a department has some incentive to use unspent budget toward the end of the year on items that perhaps wouldn't have been considered worthy expenditures earlier in the year. This is unfortunate, but the alternative—not reducing budgets for departments that spent less than they said they would—doesn't seem like it would be an improvement overall.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: rocketpj on December 19, 2024, 02:54:01 PM
Any time people start listing all the things they disapprove of in areas they know nothing about, i always ask them to consider how much sense it makes when someone starts telling them how pointless their work is, or how obvious the solutions are to whatever problems they are facing.

Bottom line, the world is complicated. A massive country with 400 million people is really, really complicated.  Cutting things without thought is a fantastic way to create twice the problems down the road. 

And if government were run like a business, which is a weird fantasy of a lot of people, it would be vastly worse than it is now.  Which business?  Look at the most profitable companies in the world right now - Facebook, Google, Amazon and all the other hopelessly enshittified tech companies that get provide continually worse service while sticking it to providers, customers and clients in every direction.  Sounds like a great idea.  Sheesh.

I do think it would be pretty funny, as a non-US person, if all the 'low tax' Red States suddenly found themselves cut off from the generous firehose of federal cash they have been receiving from all the actually economically productive Blue States they hate so much.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: joemandadman189 on December 19, 2024, 04:09:04 PM
the total budget is ~6.8 Trillion per year, total receipts were 4.9 trillion leaving a deficit of ~1.8 Trillion

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60843/html#:~:text=or%206%20percent).-,Total%20Outlays%3A%20Up%20by%2010%20Percent%20in%20Fiscal%20Year%202024,percent)%20more%20than%20in%202023.

I worry we cant get out of the mess we are in, that deficit ($1.8 trillion) is greater than than the total social security spending of $1.46 trillion, or rough equal to both health and Medicare spending combined. Net interest is ~900 billion a year now, roughly the same is spent on health, medicare, and national defense.

Small 10 billion dollar cuts likely aren't going to "cut" it and make a meaningful dent in the budget. Maybe the DOGE can find 1,800 - 10 billion dollar cuts in the overall budget, but i am doubtful

I think we need overall systemic reform on basically every government spending category. Services and benefits will need to be cut. Inflation can not rise and we need a way to increase tax receipts, reviewing the link below raising corporate taxes seems like a good place to start

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-u-s-governments-2024-fiscal-year/
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: maizefolk on December 19, 2024, 04:34:54 PM
For example, one of the big headaches around government procurement are all the rules designed to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse.    Getting rid of those rules would make everything cheaper and more efficient, but then there would be more waste, fraud, and abuse, and people would want new rules to end waste, fraud, and abuse.   

+1 to this. I work at a public university and we spend far more time (and hence money) on all these extra steps designed to prevent fraud or waste than any potential financial losses from the fraud or waste itself.

But for university administrators, it's a much more appealing to accept spending a bunch of money inefficiently than accept the career risks that come with headlines about fraud/waste occurring on their watch.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: wenchsenior on December 20, 2024, 10:57:58 AM
For example, one of the big headaches around government procurement are all the rules designed to prevent waste, fraud, and abuse.    Getting rid of those rules would make everything cheaper and more efficient, but then there would be more waste, fraud, and abuse, and people would want new rules to end waste, fraud, and abuse.   

My god, the motherfucking hoops we jump through in order to spend money. The general public has no earthly idea. The only thing worse than this stupidity would be removing the hoops altogether. Though, I could definitely get behind reducing a few of the hoops.

Right now, in order to make sure there are zero missed IT procurements, we're required to submit an IT checklist for all purchases. My XO just submitted a Purchase Order, with attached IT checklist, for bolts, screws, nails, filters, UV lights, etc. That particularly stupidity is just stupidity.

Your Humble Government Servant,
AboutTo NotBePaid

My husband bitches constantly about this sort of thing.
Title: Re: What costs can be cut from the US federal govt without eliminating services?
Post by: zolotiyeruki on December 22, 2024, 09:09:43 AM
And if government were run like a business, which is a weird fantasy of a lot of people, it would be vastly worse than it is now.  Which business?  Look at the most profitable companies in the world right now - Facebook, Google, Amazon and all the other hopelessly enshittified tech companies that get provide continually worse service while sticking it to providers, customers and clients in every direction.  Sounds like a great idea.  Sheesh.
I think you've got it a bit backwards. As tech companies approach monopoly power, they become like the government--bloated, inefficient, wasteful, etc.  Spending gobs of money on what something that caught an executive's eye, or on pet projects?  That sounds remarkably similar to government....