Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 498099 times)

lbmustache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #800 on: December 30, 2016, 12:45:25 PM »
How do you peacefully and rationally protest against those who are ready to spit on you for your ideals?

I don't really know the answer to your broader question, but we have several pretty spectacular answers to this part of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selma_to_Montgomery_marches

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_March

Practically speaking, I think the problems liberals (and specifically Democrats) have getting and keeping political power are as follows:

1) Many liberals (from big donors to your average citizen activist) seem to only be attracted to the 'sexy' or 'social' aspects of politics (e.g., this upcoming women's march on Washington). Liberals are really big into  marching, signing petitions, and other similar forms of protest, esp around flashpoint topics (e.g., women's reproductive rights, LBGT rights, combating climate change, protesting big banks). There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but I haven't seen much evidence that it works in the modern political era. I'm suspicious that it allows liberals to feel participatory without actually accomplishing anything.  You know what DOES accomplish things? What the conservatives do, which is learn every boring detail of  local political process, start at ground zero, and mobilize the hell out their voters to take over ALL the offices at the local level. Then move the game up and out. With each step, conservatives have been able to make changes to procedural rules that solidify their gains and make it easier to hold those gains in the future.  And because they organize so much better than liberals, they naturally have a MUCH deeper and better prepared bench of up and coming 'talent'. That is why they now hold the vast majority of state and local offices across the country.

To sum up: Conservatives are much better than liberals at making plans that take decades of work to pay off, limiting themselves to a smaller number of achievable goals, and then busting their asses for years to reach those goals. To sum up, conservatives possess much more interest in, and tolerance for, the dirty, boring, day to day grind of building a political machine than liberals seem to.

2) Liberals seem to fundamentally misunderstand certain things about human nature despite being perpetually smacked in the face with them. Humans are wired to respond to emotion first and reason second. Also, humans are wired to be tribal, to discount the long term, and to view resources as somewhat 'zero-sum' (whether they are or not). It's our default to separate ourselves into in-groups and out-groups using the most obvious criteria at hand.  If nothing obvious is at hand, we will look for something to use to self-sort, even if that criterion is totally meaningless (as Dr. Seuss well knew). And the more Democrats talk about each special-snowflake subgroup of their potential coalition, celebrate their uniqueness, and talk about how special policies should be in place for each group, the more their message divides the electorate. (Note: I didn't say Dems shouldn't create the policies to help certain subgroups that need it, only that they shouldn't focus on the narrowness or specialness of that policy or subgroup in messaging).

Here's a crucial point: Although people of different 'tribes' will readily learn tolerance of each other when they are in position to actually develop personal relationships with each other, mere casual exposure to different 'tribes' often has the opposite effect because it triggers our in group/out group response.  Democrats need to STOP spending so much message time actively highlighting how diverse the nation and start focusing messaging more on the commonalities of their constituency. (Successful Dem candidates tend to not fall into this trap as much...e.g., Obama and Bill Clinton).

Incidentally, one of the things that I find perplexing about the current Dem struggle for Party Chair is one leading contender, Keith Ellison, is almost perfectly designed to symbolize the more problematic form of messaging: he's a black Muslim.  Now, I personally admire Ellison, and for all I know he'd be a great party leader...but the only way the Dems could more aggressively broadcast the the messaging problem I noted above in the form of an individual person, is if Keith was also transgender LOL.  I'm not sure who, if anyone, would be a better choice, but Ellison seems an ironic front-runner given the views of the swing voters of the Midwest who just kicked the Dems out of power.

3. There is a really interesting book out The Righteous Mind, by Jonathan Haidt, that I think should be required reading for all politically active liberals.  He posits that ethical and moral principles that underlie our worldviews cluster around six fundamental ideas: care, fairness, liberty, loyalty, authority, and sanctity. Haidt says that people who identify as conservative tend to place more equal 'weight' across all six ideas when forming their ethical principles and worldview, whereas people who identify as liberal tend to dramatically weight only two (fairness and care) and can be downright dismissive of some of the others (incidentally, as a left-leaning centrist, I personally fit Haidt's formula).  Caveats aside, I suspect Haidt is really onto something in terms of how the two parties 'message' to activate their base. He says conservatives campaign on messages that seek to activate emotions associated with all six ideas; whereas liberals campaign on messages that tend to focus excessively on fairness/care. This works fine to activate the most liberal voters, but swing voters and moderates would likely be more responsive to more 'balanced' messaging.

4. Finally, in terms of policy, I think the tiresomely smug Thomas Frank is correct yet again. The Dems have more or less practically abandoned the working class (of all races) that used to be their base vote. Their policies and messaging are now much more heavily directed squarely at MY demographic: college-educated, upper-middle income, creative class people. They need to actually pursue and message more policies that truly help the working class and the lower middle, and not worry so much about my demo (which is still doing ok in this country).

Ok, Dem strategists, give me a call!

I agree with all of this, especially the part about Democrats/liberals mobilization (or lack thereof).

It's one of the reasons I posted the link above. While I think that some of it - as others have rightly pointed out - is like, "good luck hopefully things will turn out our way," it does talk about putting in the work and starting at the city or county level, especially with regards to knowing your representative and being there to ask questions or protest. However we will need to do more than protest this time around.

"Liberals are really big into  marching, signing petitions, and other similar forms of protest, esp around flashpoint topics ...  I'm suspicious that it allows liberals to feel participatory without actually accomplishing anything." - I personally fell into the trap myself, I donated to Obama and made a few calls, and once he won I was like well! My work is done here, let me kick back for 8 years. This election was a wakeup call to myself, and hopefully others.

lbmustache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #801 on: December 30, 2016, 12:59:12 PM »
Overall, I'd agree we are getting more socially liberal.  Seems like we are getting more fiscally conservative.  But none of this is based on actual polls -- any anecdotal remarks here will be skewed based on your location and social circle, no?
Well, I think "divided" would indicate that people feel more strongly about their beliefs and opinions, and are less willing to compromise on them - not necessarily that we as a whole are skewing heavily to one political extreme or another. But yes you are correct in that Americans seem to be leaning towards social liberalism and fiscal conservatism.

Theoretically speaking, why can't Democrats be "fiscally conservative" (lower case "f") by rebranding the idea? Is it not fiscally conservative that a lot of Democratic policies actually save money in the long term? Government programs are cheaper than private industry doing the same job. Why can't we reduce the military budget for stupid shit, fraud waste and abuse? Who on a forum about finances not like the idea of reducing government debt? Why does this have to be an idea from the Right? Why do Democrats suck so bad at the message?

It's the way the message is delivered sure, but I think this also goes back to your previous post:

"But I really wonder if facts and clear concise use of the English language is really the way to combat the seething pitchfork carrying portion of the Right in conservative areas in our "post truth" 24 hour news cycle world? ...  Being civil to our opponents and responding rationally has lost not only the presidency but swaths of state and local elections, which they totally forgot about. How do you combat a fact-free driven emotional decision making electorate with fact?"

The basis of the argument that you are proposing - that government programs are more fiscally responsible - is a logical one. You would have to tell people that a program, let's say ACA, is going to cost $x billion or trillion now, and there are going to be some bumps in the road (rising premiums, insurers pulling out), but in 20 years we'll see healthier people and that will mean less money spent and the world will be a better place and blahblahblah. Like wenchsenior mentioned, most tend to not see things long-term and rather see what is right in front of them. Add to this the fact that people respond emotionally. Add the fact that a lot of people seem to see "big government," "socialism," etc. as fundamentally bad.

Arguing for more government programs - in terms of of an emotional, short-term "now" argument - I'm not sure how it could be done.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #802 on: December 31, 2016, 06:51:01 AM »
The basis of the argument that you are proposing - that government programs are more fiscally responsible - is a logical one. You would have to tell people that a program, let's say ACA, is going to cost $x billion or trillion now, and there are going to be some bumps in the road (rising premiums, insurers pulling out), but in 20 years we'll see healthier people and that will mean less money spent and the world will be a better place and blahblahblah. Like wenchsenior mentioned, most tend to not see things long-term and rather see what is right in front of them. Add to this the fact that people respond emotionally. Add the fact that a lot of people seem to see "big government," "socialism," etc. as fundamentally bad.

Arguing for more government programs - in terms of of an emotional, short-term "now" argument - I'm not sure how it could be done.

I think one good step would be to be honest. "Yes this is going to cost a shit ton of money; no the effects are not going to be seen for quite awhile and be hard to measure even then, and there are going to be bumps in the road but overall everyone will be healthier and the country will be measurably better for it."

Instead of lies like "This will save everyone $2,500 a year and everything will go smoothly and all healthcare issues will be covered and you can keep your doctor." (For example).

Social liberalism and fiscal conservatism can coexist; but there is still a balancing act between those two actions. Everyone falls along the continuum of which is more important, but being dishonest or blind to the real costs of policies does not do any favors to the people that are affected by, or support, said policies.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #803 on: December 31, 2016, 10:56:19 AM »
The basis of the argument that you are proposing - that government programs are more fiscally responsible - is a logical one. You would have to tell people that a program, let's say ACA, is going to cost $x billion or trillion now, and there are going to be some bumps in the road (rising premiums, insurers pulling out), but in 20 years we'll see healthier people and that will mean less money spent and the world will be a better place and blahblahblah. Like wenchsenior mentioned, most tend to not see things long-term and rather see what is right in front of them. Add to this the fact that people respond emotionally. Add the fact that a lot of people seem to see "big government," "socialism," etc. as fundamentally bad.

Arguing for more government programs - in terms of of an emotional, short-term "now" argument - I'm not sure how it could be done.

I think one good step would be to be honest. "Yes this is going to cost a shit ton of money; no the effects are not going to be seen for quite awhile and be hard to measure even then, and there are going to be bumps in the road but overall everyone will be healthier and the country will be measurably better for it."

Instead of lies like "This will save everyone $2,500 a year and everything will go smoothly and all healthcare issues will be covered and you can keep your doctor." (For example).

Social liberalism and fiscal conservatism can coexist; but there is still a balancing act between those two actions. Everyone falls along the continuum of which is more important, but being dishonest or blind to the real costs of policies does not do any favors to the people that are affected by, or support, said policies.

+1. Well said. Although I'm not sure using your first quote would be effective in the era where gaslighting/spreading fake news is considered a perfectly acceptable tactic. 

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #804 on: December 31, 2016, 11:35:32 AM »
+1. Well said. Although I'm not sure using your first quote would be effective in the era where gaslighting/spreading fake news is considered a perfectly acceptable tactic.

Well, hopefully the people writing and suggesting policies are more diplomatic than I. :)

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #805 on: December 31, 2016, 11:41:53 AM »
Well, hopefully the people writing and suggesting policies are more diplomatic than I. :)

Not so much, those people gave us "build the wall" and "lock her up" and "drain the swamp" and I suspect that three syllables is the maximum capacity for detailed policy analysis provided by these folks.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #806 on: December 31, 2016, 11:55:30 AM »
Well, hopefully the people writing and suggesting policies are more diplomatic than I. :)

Not so much, those people gave us "build the wall" and "lock her up" and "drain the swamp" and I suspect that three syllables is the maximum capacity for detailed policy analysis provided by these folks.

Well, these polices also seem to fail the 'honesty' part of the equation that I mentioned earlier. So there is obviously much room for improvement.

Daleth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #807 on: December 31, 2016, 01:49:02 PM »
Germany, in the 20th century, survived defeat in two world wars, a fascist dictatorship, and a communist dictatorship in 1/2 the country.  They, as a society, lived to tell about it.  Hopefully we will too.

And they're actually doing really well, aren't they. Strongest economy in Europe, very socially liberal, excellent safety net for the poor (disabled, working poor, starving artists, aspiring entrepreneurs etc.), excellent health care, excellent education system. Not to mention their astonishingly beautiful response to the Syrian refugee crisis last year.

Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #808 on: December 31, 2016, 01:51:07 PM »
Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

Yea!  Let's perpetrate a global war and racial genocide so that we can have a heartwarming comeback story too!

Daleth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #809 on: December 31, 2016, 01:51:37 PM »
Liberals are really big into  marching, signing petitions, and other similar forms of protest, esp around flashpoint topics (e.g., women's reproductive rights, LBGT rights, combating climate change, protesting big banks). There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but I haven't seen much evidence that it works in the modern political era. I'm suspicious that it allows liberals to feel participatory without actually accomplishing anything.  You know what DOES accomplish things? What the conservatives do, which is learn every boring detail of  local political process, start at ground zero, and mobilize the hell out their voters to take over ALL the offices at the local level. Then move the game up and out. With each step, conservatives have been able to make changes to procedural rules that solidify their gains and make it easier to hold those gains in the future.  And because they organize so much better than liberals, they naturally have a MUCH deeper and better prepared bench of up and coming 'talent'. That is why they now hold the vast majority of state and local offices across the country.

You've hit the nail on the head. And on a side note, you've explained why I have absolutely no respect whatsoever for the Greens, Libertarians or any other U.S. third parties. They don't want to do the work--they just want to run a doomed presidential campaign every four years and complain about how unfaaaaaaaair it is that the "system" is stacked against them. Yeah, it's stacked against political movements that refuse to do what works.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #810 on: December 31, 2016, 02:14:18 PM »
Germany, in the 20th century, survived defeat in two world wars, a fascist dictatorship, and a communist dictatorship in 1/2 the country.  They, as a society, lived to tell about it.  Hopefully we will too.

And they're actually doing really well, aren't they. Strongest economy in Europe, very socially liberal, excellent safety net for the poor (disabled, working poor, starving artists, aspiring entrepreneurs etc.), excellent health care, excellent education system. Not to mention their astonishingly beautiful response to the Syrian refugee crisis last year.

Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children...  no thanks, I'm going to remain clearly in the camp that I oppose Trump at every incremental turn I disagree with and leave my skepticism that 'it'll all be OK' as an upside if I'm wrong 4 or 8 years from now.  Unless, of course, Trump manages to get a 3rd term since I'm beginning to think that even at 78 years of age people will continue to excuse reasonable doubt. 

There are plenty of areas in life where optimism and hope are exactly the right antidote to creating the change you want.  I guess I'm not seeing how optimism and hope fit with Trump changing some of the most important qualities of American life for the better.

tralfamadorian

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #811 on: December 31, 2016, 07:09:37 PM »
saw this today-

John (while writing Revelations): "So Lord, the end will be signaled by trumpets?"

God: "No... I said Trump/Pence."

John: "Yeah, trumpets."

God: "Never mind. They'll know." 

purple monkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #812 on: December 31, 2016, 08:00:54 PM »
Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

Yea!  Let's perpetrate a global war and racial genocide so that we can have a heartwarming comeback story too!

Bow to you Sol!

KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #813 on: January 01, 2017, 05:20:33 PM »
saw this today-

John (while writing Revelations): "So Lord, the end will be signaled by trumpets?"

God: "No... I said Trump/Pence."

John: "Yeah, trumpets."

God: "Never mind. They'll know."

That's hilarious.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #814 on: January 01, 2017, 08:22:38 PM »
Yet another important act of a Trump presidency.

Quidnon?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #815 on: January 01, 2017, 10:14:22 PM »
saw this today-

John (while writing Revelations): "So Lord, the end will be signaled by trumpets?"

God: "No... I said Trump/Pence."

John: "Yeah, trumpets."

God: "Never mind. They'll know."

I have to admit, I literally laughed out loud. My daughter asked me, "what are you laughing about?!" so I showed this to her, and she started laughing too.  My wife didn't see the humor so much.

Daleth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #816 on: January 02, 2017, 08:01:19 AM »
Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

Yea!  Let's perpetrate a global war and racial genocide so that we can have a heartwarming comeback story too!

Don't be an idiot, Sol. The point is that a country can come back from the dark side relatively quickly (Germany's been in good shape since at least the 1970s).

Daleth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #817 on: January 02, 2017, 08:05:39 AM »
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children...  no thanks, I'm going to remain clearly in the camp that I oppose Trump at every incremental turn

Uh, me too. My vision board features photos of Trump, Ryan and Pence superimposed on an image of the flaming Hindenburg. They lost by almost 3 million votes, "won" on a technicality and thus have absolutely no mandate whatsoever, to do anything. If Democratic members of Congress were listening to me my message would be, "Block those fuckers at every turn. Four years of gridlock is preferable to anything they will ever propose. Oh, and put a trauma team and a heart/lung machine in the Supreme Court building--we will keep RBG alive NO MATTER WHAT!"

There are plenty of areas in life where optimism and hope are exactly the right antidote to creating the change you want.  I guess I'm not seeing how optimism and hope fit with Trump changing some of the most important qualities of American life for the better.

The point is to not completely and utterly lose hope, because loss of hope can sap the will to keep fighting.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #818 on: January 02, 2017, 09:27:47 AM »
Wow. That's so heartening. Thank you for pointing that out!

Yea!  Let's perpetrate a global war and racial genocide so that we can have a heartwarming comeback story too!

Don't be an idiot, Sol. The point is that a country can come back from the dark side relatively quickly (Germany's been in good shape since at least the 1970s).

Don't violate Rule #1 of the forum.

Sol's point, and it is a good one, is that to cheerfully say we can come back from the dark side "relatively quickly" seems horrifically cold, when the tone seems to complacently shrug shoulders at the horrors that so many individuals suffered in the process. It's a tone that speaks of reading about the history from a book, in front of a warm fire with a lovely mug of something, at a very comfortable remove.

People in the present can observe things unfolding from a comfortable remove, as well, if they feel fairly certain the brunt of the impact won't be felt by them too much.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #819 on: January 03, 2017, 12:27:38 PM »
Ford cancels 1.6B Mexico plant:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-cancels-1-6-billion-160903623.html

Pretty interesting news and one of the largest that is directly attributable to our President Elect.  I consider reduction of offshoring a positive for the US economy.  I agree that it will likely be more automation and less overall jobs than there would have been in Mexico, but that brings a different (and better) type of job to the US.

Not replying to this news specifically, but in general there are lots of conflicting details emerging, and I think this is going to be the trend with any of the hyperbolic headlines in the coming years.  It is a useful tactic, to blow people's minds with a statement, and then put all of the disclaimers in the small print.  For example, with this news story -

Quote
To be sure, Ford acknowledged that it would still move production of the next-generation Focus sedan to Mexico, as previously announced. But it will be built at an existing plant in Hermosillo, Mexico, not at a new facility.

And spin like - "We've seen our jobs go overseas," UAW Vice President Jimmy Settles said. "It's evident today that Ford is rewarding us for our hard work."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/01/03/ford-motor-co-donald-trump-mexico-us/96106334/

And just in general, using common-sense economics, playing the tariff game and stifling the free market ultimately results in one or all of:  increased cost, longer schedule, lower quality, and/or reduced choice.  I'm one of those folks perpetually amazed by the ability of markets to self-organize and drive efficiency, so putting a bunch of extra tariffs and politics into American manufacturing is not going to help make our products more competitive globally. 

deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #820 on: January 03, 2017, 12:38:28 PM »
Ford cancels 1.6B Mexico plant:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-cancels-1-6-billion-160903623.html

Pretty interesting news and one of the largest that is directly attributable to our President Elect.  I consider reduction of offshoring a positive for the US economy.  I agree that it will likely be more automation and less overall jobs than there would have been in Mexico, but that brings a different (and better) type of job to the US.

Not replying to this news specifically, but in general there are lots of conflicting details emerging, and I think this is going to be the trend with any of the hyperbolic headlines in the coming years.  It is a useful tactic, to blow people's minds with a statement, and then put all of the disclaimers in the small print.  For example, with this news story -

Quote
To be sure, Ford acknowledged that it would still move production of the next-generation Focus sedan to Mexico, as previously announced. But it will be built at an existing plant in Hermosillo, Mexico, not at a new facility.

And spin like - "We've seen our jobs go overseas," UAW Vice President Jimmy Settles said. "It's evident today that Ford is rewarding us for our hard work."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/01/03/ford-motor-co-donald-trump-mexico-us/96106334/

Pretty much every "announcement" of jobs or production coming back to the US has been hyperbole or previously announced, just being re-announced so that Trump can take credit.  This, the carrier plant and the T-Mobile (Sofbank owned company) expansion were all previously done deals that Trump has had no influence whatsoever on.

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #821 on: January 03, 2017, 01:03:51 PM »
The Ford plant is good short term news for the region, and indirectly attributable to Trump in the sense that Ford thought he would be more business friendly than Clinton.   However, they also said that it was due to market forces as well.

It's going to be one eye-rolling headline after the other.  Business will do what it always does and if they think that sucking up to Trump will put more dollars in their pocket, then they will do it.  It is pretty easy to figure out how to get on the guy's good side and use it to their advantage.  It's going to be a giant dick sucking contest.   

Gondolin

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #822 on: January 03, 2017, 01:57:22 PM »
Quote
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children... 

Could be argued that we've got 2 out of 3 at present...Would definitely argue that America's past is plenty checkered already.

Daleth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #823 on: January 03, 2017, 02:04:38 PM »
Quote
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children... 

Could be argued that we've got 2 out of 3 at present...Would definitely argue that America's past is plenty checkered already.

Very true, sadly.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #824 on: January 03, 2017, 02:31:32 PM »
Quote
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children... 

Could be argued that we've got 2 out of 3 at present...Would definitely argue that America's past is plenty checkered already.
What's kind of amazing is that many of us will look back fondly upon dubya after the next couple of years... Just like Tony Blair is looking real attractive in the UK right now....

I remember saying during the Dubya administration that Republican presidents seemed to get almost exponentially worse every time, and that I was sure the next one would make Dubya look decent by comparison. My own prescience terrifies me.

Now apply that truism to the next Republican president. I can't even imagine.

Gondolin

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #825 on: January 03, 2017, 02:45:42 PM »
Despite all the Trump hate and hyperbole about how "unprecedented" this election was, I can think of one other Republican President who called his opponents nasty names and reveled in stirring up controversy that swirled around his huge ego. That was Teddy Roosevelt, who is usually listed as a top 10 President.

Imagine Teddy with a Twitter account...Turns out you can find historical precedent for just about anything if you're willing to look back more than 30 years.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #826 on: January 03, 2017, 03:06:06 PM »
Despite all the Trump hate and hyperbole about how "unprecedented" this election was, I can think of one other Republican President who called his opponents nasty names and reveled in stirring up controversy that swirled around his huge ego. That was Teddy Roosevelt, who is usually listed as a top 10 President.

Personally I haven't seen anyone claim that Trump's name-calling was unprecedented, only that he's the first to use Twitter to do it (at least to this degree).  As you've alluded to, there have been lots of politicians who spent their careers attacking their opponents.  In terms of ego Trump's probably not very different from FDR, LBJ, Nixon or a half a dozen others.

What's unprecedented is that Trump comes to the position having never held public office nor been in the military.  FDR was in the military before being elected state rep before becoming governor of NY before being VP before running for president. Similar story for every one else to ever hold the office.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2017, 03:15:04 PM by nereo »

wenchsenior

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #827 on: January 03, 2017, 03:11:23 PM »
Quote
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children... 

Could be argued that we've got 2 out of 3 at present...Would definitely argue that America's past is plenty checkered already.
What's kind of amazing is that many of us will look back fondly upon dubya after the next couple of years... Just like Tony Blair is looking real attractive in the UK right now....

I'm looking back fondly on  him NOW, in comparison.  I said all the way through this election, I'd vote for W over Trump in a heartbeat if those were the choices. And I thought W was mostly unprecedentedly terrible.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #828 on: January 03, 2017, 03:30:56 PM »
There were over 400 laws passed by GOP leadership restricting women's bodily autonomy is the last year or two.  None restricting men. 

Gin, what you're clearly missing here is that those laws were passed by Republican legislatures and governors to protect women -- those frail, helpless damsels that were being killed and hurt by the thousands every day because of super-dangerous conditions in health clinics, because of vicious health practitioners who would "rip fetuses out of their wombs in the ninth month" like Trump said, to sell the body parts and leave the woman on the operating table to die, and because of all kinds of other horrors being committed. It was like a medieval torture dungeon in health clinics before these laws were created; women needed protection. They need health clinics that are up to the standards of a major trauma center in a large city hospital, even if they're only getting routine outpatient care like fixing an ingrown toenail. If a clinic is not up to those kinds of standards, close that mother*er down and have the woman go to an appropriate facility 700 miles away that will protect them.

Women need doctors to show them pictures of their fetus, make them listen to it. They need to have a doctor put an imaging rod in their vagina and do a trans-vaginal ultrasound (even if they think they don't want that), then make the woman look at the image so those ladies know what they're doing, because who else is going to protect those poor women from harm and from themselves? Republicans care about women. Without these new laws women could suffer all kinds of injustices and harm. THAT is why those laws have been created, as stated by the creators of such laws; they have NOTHING to do with restricting abortion or bodily autonomy.

<sarcasm>

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #829 on: January 03, 2017, 06:34:34 PM »
Despite all the Trump hate and hyperbole about how "unprecedented" this election was, I can think of one other Republican President who called his opponents nasty names and reveled in stirring up controversy that swirled around his huge ego. That was Teddy Roosevelt, who is usually listed as a top 10 President.

Imagine Teddy with a Twitter account...Turns out you can find historical precedent for just about anything if you're willing to look back more than 30 years.

Sure, but that's not really why most of us here are horrified/terrified by Trump (except when he threatens decades of foreign policy and international relations through unvetted Twitter posts, anyway).


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #830 on: January 03, 2017, 08:33:43 PM »

Sure, but that's not really why most of us here are horrified/terrified by Trump (except when he threatens decades of foreign policy and international relations through unvetted Twitter posts, anyway).


I'm welcoming some fresh foreign policy - the last couple of decades have left room for improvement. 

I'm hoping you aren't actually terrified - there is too much fear being spread around.

Terrified in an intellectual sense, sure. But perfectly happy and hopeful for the future in a more general sense.

New foreign policy is fine (even desirable), but not when issued off the top of the head by someone with no experience whatsoever on the topic who has still expressed admiration for many of our worst practices (e.g. waterboarding).

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #831 on: January 04, 2017, 01:36:50 AM »
Quote
All we have to do is put a madman in charge, go through the deepest reaches of hell, leave a checkered past as a gift to our children... 

Could be argued that we've got 2 out of 3 at present...Would definitely argue that America's past is plenty checkered already.
What's kind of amazing is that many of us will look back fondly upon dubya after the next couple of years... Just like Tony Blair is looking real attractive in the UK right now....
No, Dubya and Tony Blair still helped kill hundreds of thousands in an unnecessary and illegal war, and that can't be forgiven.  I do get a little bit of a feeling in the UK that perhaps Maggie is not the hate-figure she was (note: I don't live in a former coal-mining area, though).  Perhaps Ronald in the US?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #832 on: January 04, 2017, 03:37:23 AM »

Sure, but that's not really why most of us here are horrified/terrified by Trump (except when he threatens decades of foreign policy and international relations through unvetted Twitter posts, anyway).


I'm welcoming some fresh foreign policy - the last couple of decades have left room for improvement. 

I'm hoping you aren't actually terrified - there is too much fear being spread around.

Terrified in an intellectual sense, sure. But perfectly happy and hopeful for the future in a more general sense.

New foreign policy is fine (even desirable), but not when issued off the top of the head by someone with no experience whatsoever on the topic who has still expressed admiration for many of our worst practices (e.g. waterboarding).

Well, at least on this particular subject, Trump has calimed to have evolved his views, thankfully.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #833 on: January 04, 2017, 05:35:15 AM »

Sure, but that's not really why most of us here are horrified/terrified by Trump (except when he threatens decades of foreign policy and international relations through unvetted Twitter posts, anyway).


I'm welcoming some fresh foreign policy - the last couple of decades have left room for improvement. 

I'm hoping you aren't actually terrified - there is too much fear being spread around.

Terrified in an intellectual sense, sure. But perfectly happy and hopeful for the future in a more general sense.

New foreign policy is fine (even desirable), but not when issued off the top of the head by someone with no experience whatsoever on the topic who has still expressed admiration for many of our worst practices (e.g. waterboarding).

Well, at least on this particular subject, Trump has calimed to have evolved his views, thankfully.

Citation?  The most recent I can find is this, which says that Trump listened to Mattis on waterboarding but went on to say -

“I’m not saying it changed my mind about torture” and “if it’s so important to the American people, I would go for it. I would be guided by that.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-waterboarding-new-york-times-still-in-favour-a7438976.html

Not so big a change of views.  The biggest so-called "democracy" in the world will yet again have a Head of State who would be prepared to order torture.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #834 on: January 04, 2017, 06:04:43 AM »
Citation?  The most recent I can find is this, which says that Trump listened to Mattis on waterboarding but went on to say -

“I’m not saying it changed my mind about torture” and “if it’s so important to the American people, I would go for it. I would be guided by that.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-waterboarding-new-york-times-still-in-favour-a7438976.html

Not so big a change of views.  The biggest so-called "democracy" in the world will yet again have a Head of State who would be prepared to order torture.

I guess I was referencing the Times and CNN, and Donald Trump which focused on Trump quoting: 'Trump quoted Gen Mattis as saying that “I’ve never found it [waterboarding] to be useful”.' and '(waterboarding) is not going to make the kind of difference that a lot of people are thinking.'

I can see how others would have different conclusions.

So we'll see what he orders, I guess. Currently the leader of the biggest Republic in the world orders extra-judicial assassinations of civilians around the world, so we do have a lot of ground to make up.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #835 on: January 04, 2017, 06:25:44 AM »
Citation?  The most recent I can find is this, which says that Trump listened to Mattis on waterboarding but went on to say -

“I’m not saying it changed my mind about torture” and “if it’s so important to the American people, I would go for it. I would be guided by that.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-waterboarding-new-york-times-still-in-favour-a7438976.html

Not so big a change of views.  The biggest so-called "democracy" in the world will yet again have a Head of State who would be prepared to order torture.

I guess I was referencing the Times and CNN, and Donald Trump which focused on Trump quoting: 'Trump quoted Gen Mattis as saying that “I’ve never found it [waterboarding] to be useful”.' and '(waterboarding) is not going to make the kind of difference that a lot of people are thinking.'

I can see how others would have different conclusions.

So we'll see what he orders, I guess. Currently the leader of the biggest Republic in the world orders extra-judicial assassinations of civilians around the world, so we do have a lot of ground to make up.
Yes, it's all about the reporting, isn't it?  The reports on Trump quoting Mattis were accurate but incomplete.  Including Trump's follow-on comments changes the outcome of the story.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #836 on: January 04, 2017, 06:26:59 AM »
Yes, it's all about the reporting, isn't it?  The reports on Trump quoting Mattis were accurate but incomplete.  Including Trump's follow-on comments changes the outcome of the story.

With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

OurTown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #837 on: January 04, 2017, 11:44:51 AM »
Yes, it's all about the reporting, isn't it?  The reports on Trump quoting Mattis were accurate but incomplete.  Including Trump's follow-on comments changes the outcome of the story.

With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

Just in case we have had enough Godwin and everyone is tired of the Hitler comparisons, click this link:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #838 on: January 05, 2017, 06:33:54 AM »
With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

So true.  Now Trump is writing on Twitter that Republicans need to be careful and make sure Dems "own" the repeal of the ACA.  As much as I have hated the endless Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and as much as I fear it will extend my time at a full time job and as much as I hate will affect so many people that did not vote in the crowd that wanted to repeal it, a part of me is looking forward to the lesson many will soon learn of voting against one's own best interest and the best interest of the common good.

Pooplips

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #839 on: January 05, 2017, 06:39:31 AM »
Quote
Again, if it means so much to you, start that thread. It doesn't mean that much to myself, because I can manage with or without the ACA.

Thank you for finally coming clean and explaining yourself.  It sounds like you simply don't care much if, under Trump, people with pre-existing conditions will actually have access to healthcare at a reasonable cost.  That's a value judgement only you can make, and it sounds like you're good with it. 

This thread makes more sense now.  For a second, I thought you actually believed that Trump's proposed healthcare solutions would provide viable options for those with pre-existing conditions.  Thanks for clarifying. 
 

I don't see what he said as being any different than the people discussing how they or someone they know has a pre-existing condition.

ACA is fantastic for people with pre-existing conditions and provideds them with a health and financial benefit.

He obviously does not have a pre-exisiting condition and the means to pay for his own health care, so, he sees the ACA as just another cost imposed on him.

Everyone has their bias.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #840 on: January 05, 2017, 06:42:31 AM »
With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

So true.  Now Trump is writing on Twitter that Republicans need to be careful and make sure Dems "own" the repeal of the ACA.  As much as I have hated the endless Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and as much as I fear it will extend my time at a full time job and as much as I hate will affect so many people that did not vote in the crowd that wanted to repeal it, a part of me is looking forward to the lesson many will soon learn of voting against one's own best interest and the best interest of the common good.

Well, remember that this summer there were enough democratic congress people who voted with republicans to get a repeal bill to President Obama's desk; if those votes are still there, it would technically be a bi-partisan effort to repeal/improve the ACA.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #841 on: January 05, 2017, 08:43:56 AM »
With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

So true.  Now Trump is writing on Twitter that Republicans need to be careful and make sure Dems "own" the repeal of the ACA.  As much as I have hated the endless Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and as much as I fear it will extend my time at a full time job and as much as I hate will affect so many people that did not vote in the crowd that wanted to repeal it, a part of me is looking forward to the lesson many will soon learn of voting against one's own best interest and the best interest of the common good.

Well, remember that this summer there were enough democratic congress people who voted with republicans to get a repeal bill to President Obama's desk; if those votes are still there, it would technically be a bi-partisan effort to repeal/improve the ACA.

When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #842 on: January 05, 2017, 09:20:15 AM »
When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

And yet they suffered little-to-no negative consequences for the shutdown.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #843 on: January 05, 2017, 09:23:52 AM »
With Trump, the only constant is that the story will change...

So true.  Now Trump is writing on Twitter that Republicans need to be careful and make sure Dems "own" the repeal of the ACA.  As much as I have hated the endless Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and as much as I fear it will extend my time at a full time job and as much as I hate will affect so many people that did not vote in the crowd that wanted to repeal it, a part of me is looking forward to the lesson many will soon learn of voting against one's own best interest and the best interest of the common good.

Well, remember that this summer there were enough democratic congress people who voted with republicans to get a repeal bill to President Obama's desk; if those votes are still there, it would technically be a bi-partisan effort to repeal/improve the ACA.

When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

I disagree. Humans have too short of an attention span. We see the past 8 years as the slowest recovery in history, not the biggest turnaround without sinking into a depression, possibly since the dawn of time. What even IS a depression? Very few have ever seen one. I have not.


I believe Republicans will cut funding while bypassing the filibuster. They will delay a few years to get past mid-terms. We are then left with unfunded Obamacare about 3 years from now. If the Democrats say no to the "replace", no matter how piss poor it might be for the sick, the poor, the middle class, it will still be better than absolutely nothing. If the replace fails to pass, it will rest FULLY on the Democrats. People will not see the plan as worse than Obamacare (it will be worse for some, better for others). They will see it as better than NOTHING and the election 4 years from now will move the Republicans past the filibuster count in the Senate. The ONLY way this could rest with the republicans is if they get EXACTLY what they want and it does not work out well. Democrats will not let that happen. Republicans have played a masterful political game and have won for the next quarter century. I hope I am wrong.

This is like watching a chess match between a Grandmaster and a toddler. The only one that doesn't know the end result from move one is the toddler.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #844 on: January 05, 2017, 10:19:47 AM »
When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

And yet they suffered little-to-no negative consequences for the shutdown.

If the repeal goes poorly I'm sure that will be reflected in the next voting cycle.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #845 on: January 05, 2017, 11:03:05 AM »
Quote
FDR was in the military

You meant Teddy, right?

Anyway, all your points are valid. The only point I was making is that in 100 years when the Trump presidency is looked back upon, 95% of the statements and minor controversies that get everyone so riled up today will be utterly forgotten.

That said, I'm not optimistic that the 5% 'big picture' policies will be remembered fondly either...


Quote
Republicans have played a masterful political game and have won for the next quarter century. I hope I am wrong.

I think you're giving the endlessly fractious coalition of interests that constitute a major political party way too much credit.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #846 on: January 05, 2017, 12:39:16 PM »
When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

And yet they suffered little-to-no negative consequences for the shutdown.
Because no one really suffered. Unless of course your camping trip was cancelled ;).

As much  I think redistribution of wealth is immoral I would be absolutely floored if they actually repealed it; your concerns are unwarranted.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #847 on: January 05, 2017, 07:25:45 PM »
Quote
FDR was in the military

You meant Teddy, right?

Anyway, all your points are valid. The only point I was making is that in 100 years when the Trump presidency is looked back upon, 95% of the statements and minor controversies that get everyone so riled up today will be utterly forgotten.

That said, I'm not optimistic that the 5% 'big picture' policies will be remembered fondly either...


Quote
Republicans have played a masterful political game and have won for the next quarter century. I hope I am wrong.

I think you're giving the endlessly fractious coalition of interests that constitute a major political party way too much credit.

Agree with your points above, but would note that FDR attempted to serve in the military during World War I (he obviously wouldn't be fit for duty for WWII) but was denied as he was Assistant Secretary of the Navy at the time since he was deemed necessary personnel in that role. What part the fact that his family was super-rich and his uncle was Teddy Roosevelt played in the "denial" is unknown.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #848 on: January 06, 2017, 06:39:38 AM »
When the Republicans "repeal" and forget to "replace," it'll all be on their heads just like the federal government shutdowns. You're dreaming if you think otherwise because a handful of Democrats voted with them.

And yet they suffered little-to-no negative consequences for the shutdown.
Because no one really suffered. Unless of course your camping trip was cancelled ;).

As much  I think redistribution of wealth is immoral I would be absolutely floored if they actually repealed it; your concerns are unwarranted.

There was that whole veterans memorial thing too. Silly political games. Wasn't Obamas finest moment.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #849 on: January 06, 2017, 08:46:01 AM »
There was that whole veterans memorial thing too. Silly political games. Wasn't Obamas finest moment.

Why was it Obama's fault when Congress couldn't get its shit together? 

That government shutdown was a legislative branch problem.  Obama bears no more responsibility for it than does the Supreme Court, but for some reason I don't see you blaming them.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!