Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 241099 times)

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #50 on: November 09, 2016, 10:49:01 AM »
What do you folks think about congressional term limits? Any chance he fights for it? It seems he has the mandate for change, this would be a major overhaul he could push for.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #51 on: November 09, 2016, 10:57:05 AM »
What do you folks think about congressional term limits? Any chance he fights for it? It seems he has the mandate for change, this would be a major overhaul he could push for.

Nah. He doesn't give a shit about them, really, and members of Congress will convince him to drop it.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

zoltani

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #52 on: November 09, 2016, 11:08:24 AM »
Buy stocks now. The shock will wear off in a few days and markets will return to normal.

Wait, why aren't stocks crashing?
“The hardest thing in the world is to simplify your life. It’s so easy to make it complex. What’s important is leading an examined life.”

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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #53 on: November 09, 2016, 11:17:41 AM »
Buy stocks now. The shock will wear off in a few days and markets will return to normal.

Wait, why aren't stocks crashing?

Because republicans are going to lower the corporate tax rate and make the wealthy wealthier. Good for me I guess.

little_brown_dog

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #54 on: November 09, 2016, 11:18:57 AM »
I think if you are white, solidly middle class or wealthy, heterosexual, and not Muslim or an immigrant you are probably going to be fine. Your taxes may go up but meh, that’s really not a catastrophe or a human rights concern. You may not benefit from ACA if it gets dismantled, but if you are solidly middle class or well off chances are you can afford most necessary healthcare. I am genuinely concerned for people of color, religious minorities, the poor, and immigrants though. If Trump’s policies don’t go after them directly, some of his more zealous white nationalist type supporters might. I thought I read somewhere that there was an increase in racially/ethnically motivated hate speech and crimes after Brexit, as if the vote had encouraged people to go out and act on their baser impulses. Not sure how accurate that is, but I am definitely worried that same phenomenon could happen here. I am also very worried about potential impacts on safety net programs and healthcare services for the poor and working classes.

Despite my own personal grief over the election outcome, I am not entirely convinced Trump is going to usher in an apocalypse just yet. He isn’t exactly a true dyed in the wool conservative – no one is really sure what he is. The guy bounces around so much, it’s hard to say who he will nominate for the court, what specific legislation he will go after, etc. If he is truly a narcissist, that means he has a strong desire to look good, and will be willing to do things not on principle, but to make himself more powerful/popular. That makes his decisions unpredictable but not automatically super conservative.

Some realistic projections –

Moderate to conservative justices - Many of my progressive friends seem to think he is going to try to nominate 2 of the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse to the court, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he shocks us and chooses moderates in an attempt to appear magnanimous or piss off the religious republicans he hates.

Abortion and LGBT rights – I don’t see Trump crusading against this stuff – that requires moral conviction and a willingness to side with typical republican stances, and the dude just seemed to ride this stuff and take the appropriately conservative and borderline crazy position because he had to in order to secure his voting base. Possible his justices or other leaders would try to go after the legality of these, but I don’t see him personally spearheading an attack or even caring that much.  I do however thing planned parenthood’s funding could be in serious jeopardy.

Immigration – high threat to illegal immigrants. Probable increase in deportations, increased funding for border security. Wall itself possible but doubtful.

Gun control – likely to just do nothing and just block attempts at reform, typical republican stance
Police brutality/minority human rights issues – increased threat to black/latino communities, increased funding and promotion of “law and order” policing strategies

No idea about what foreign affairs would look like. That and the climate/environment are particularly worrying to me.

Gondolin

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #55 on: November 09, 2016, 11:25:48 AM »
Lots of policy talk and counter policy talk on this thread.

The reality is that we have NO IDEA what Trump is going to do as President. Every is looking at his statements, his campaign and his life, filtering that through their own hopes and trying to guess what Trump will do.

I don't believe that anything Trump has said during the last 18 months is indicative of his true beliefs and motivations. He's said what his base wants to hear and only that. All politicians do this to some extent but, Trump has taken to another level. He may pursue some of the issues addressed during his campaign...or not. He may acquiesce to the general Republican agenda...or not.

He may prove to as crazy as he looks or he might rip off his mask and turn into Jimmy Carter. No one knows.

Making guesses about what policies will be pursued are just that, guesses, until the bills are introduced to Congress or the executive orders are signed.
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chesebert

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #56 on: November 09, 2016, 11:30:39 AM »
Because market thinks he will be good for the economy, allow companies and individuals to repatriate the shitload of cash they have overseas and make the money go to work for America and rebuild the US infrastructure. If you go abroad often, you will appreciate how crappy US's infrastructure is.

Granted, none of the above can actually happen without Congress's approval and/or state-level action. 

Buy stocks now. The shock will wear off in a few days and markets will return to normal.

Wait, why aren't stocks crashing?

Because republicans are going to lower the corporate tax rate and make the wealthy wealthier. Good for me I guess.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #57 on: November 09, 2016, 11:36:39 AM »
lower taxes. and hopefully more efficient and simple tax code in the process. 

republican house/senate/president

Are you making 500k a year or more?  In that case, enjoy your lower taxes.  If not......HA HA HA

his plan lowers taxes for those making less than 500k ... just the increased standard deduction does alot.

I would be surprised if the current 3rd revision of his tax plan got implemented unaltered. But if it did.

Yes its true that the standard deduction is a lot higher. But, correct me if I am wrong, he also couples that with the elimination of the personal exemption. That largely negates the larger standard deduction increase.

On top of that 25% tax bracket remains more or less unmoved and the old 10-15% bracket gets smoothed out to 12%. The net effect will be that all households making around $200,000 or less per year, which are the vast majority of us, will see a very minor bump or drop in taxes but it will more or less be the same saving at most maybe a couple grand un-taxed which isn't going to change your lifestyle.

While the removal of estate taxes and huge drop in top tax bracket will a major tax break for very high income individuals. The only effect of this will be an even wider gap between the rich and the middle class as if it could grow any faster.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #58 on: November 09, 2016, 11:46:01 AM »
About the only thing he can do for his constituents is to removed as much regulation as possible from the energy sector. That might bring back some jobs and make him popular among his voters. And he can blow up our trade deals, not sure if he is going to get resistance on that from his own party or not, hard to say.

I am completely unsure if lower or removal of corporate tax would add blue collar jobs.

I think what is administration does will depend more on who he appointments to each position in the executive branch than on what was said in his campaign. I would imagine republicans will have to fall in line to avoid loosing there seats at the 2 year mark as a lot of pro Trump Republicans may try to ride the wave into office in 2 years..

dycker1978

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #59 on: November 09, 2016, 11:53:01 AM »
Lots of policy talk and counter policy talk on this thread.

The reality is that we have NO IDEA what Trump is going to do as President. Every is looking at his statements, his campaign and his life, filtering that through their own hopes and trying to guess what Trump will do.

I don't believe that anything Trump has said during the last 18 months is indicative of his true beliefs and motivations. He's said what his base wants to hear and only that. All politicians do this to some extent but, Trump has taken to another level. He may pursue some of the issues addressed during his campaign...or not. He may acquiesce to the general Republican agenda...or not.

He may prove to as crazy as he looks or he might rip off his mask and turn into Jimmy Carter. No one knows.

Making guesses about what policies will be pursued are just that, guesses, until the bills are introduced to Congress or the executive orders are signed.

This is the issue to me though. He has said those things.  He has basically bullied himself into the oval.  He ahs said violence is ok, that it is ok to make fun of vets, that it is ok to make fun of handy capped people, that it is ok to shit all over the rights of whoever the hell he wants to.  If you are rich enough and white enough it does not matter.  This is the real issue with this election...

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #60 on: November 09, 2016, 12:04:12 PM »
Lots of policy talk and counter policy talk on this thread.

The reality is that we have NO IDEA what Trump is going to do as President. Every is looking at his statements, his campaign and his life, filtering that through their own hopes and trying to guess what Trump will do.

I don't believe that anything Trump has said during the last 18 months is indicative of his true beliefs and motivations. He's said what his base wants to hear and only that. All politicians do this to some extent but, Trump has taken to another level. He may pursue some of the issues addressed during his campaign...or not. He may acquiesce to the general Republican agenda...or not.

He may prove to as crazy as he looks or he might rip off his mask and turn into Jimmy Carter. No one knows.

Making guesses about what policies will be pursued are just that, guesses, until the bills are introduced to Congress or the executive orders are signed.

This is the issue to me though. He has said those things.  He has basically bullied himself into the oval.  He ahs said violence is ok, that it is ok to make fun of vets, that it is ok to make fun of handy capped people, that it is ok to shit all over the rights of whoever the hell he wants to.  If you are rich enough and white enough it does not matter.  This is the real issue with this election...



Trump supporters: "Our hope is that the man we elected was completely lying for the past 18 months.  Then everything will be fine."

GuitarStv to Trump supporters: "What the fuck were you voting for then?"

Gondolin

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #61 on: November 09, 2016, 12:09:33 PM »
Quote
Trump supporters: "Our hope is that the man we elected was completely lying for the past 18 months.  Then everything will be fine."

What Trump supporters are you talking to? I'm certainly not one. I was just pointing out that it's possible that he's been lying for the past 18 months. He's been such a charlatan and has played down to his base so far that it's hard to tell where his opinions end and the campaign hyperbole begins.

I'm not particularly optimistic about what Trump will do once in office but, I do think everyone should stop reaching for the hemlock, at least until he starts instituting policy.
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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #62 on: November 09, 2016, 12:12:19 PM »
GuitarStv to Trump supporters: "What the fuck were you voting for then?"

I think the answers would be not voting for, but against Clinton and also: change.

They're going to get both now (no Clinton and change).

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #63 on: November 09, 2016, 12:22:50 PM »
Buy stocks now. The shock will wear off in a few days and markets will return to normal.

Or today even.  But ouch, my treasuries

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #64 on: November 09, 2016, 12:39:23 PM »

Manufacturing will not come back. It's not a matter of them leaving the States; it's a matter of simply fewer of them due to automation. Nothing Trump can do will fix that.


Robot tax

Pooplips

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #65 on: November 09, 2016, 12:47:41 PM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.

That is so cute you think the big companies will bring back money and enrich their workers and or shareholders.

What exactly do you think they will do with the money if they bring it back?

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #66 on: November 09, 2016, 12:51:28 PM »
Well we know one thing already: he'll try his damnedest to destroy what little we do to protect the planet.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/

Equally if not more appalling, appointees on deck for other cabinet positions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in-president-trump-cabinet-231071

rugorak

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #67 on: November 09, 2016, 12:55:33 PM »
Here is a personal impact view.

I work for a college and my girlfriend works as a researcher for a medical school/hospital. Given the policies Ryan has been trying to get done for the past few years and Trump proposed during the campaign we both could be out of work next year. They want to end federal student aid. They want it all from private banks. But make the colleges be involved in the loan process and decide if someone is a good risk or not based on past academic records, major, and a plethora of other things. The college I work for is small non-profit school and primarily serves under-served adult learners. So many times we don't have academic records that are recent because the people have been working for years. And we don't have a huge endowment. So it could put us out of business. It is next to impossible to guess how people who have been out of formal education for years and sometimes decades may do.
My girlfriend's job is primarily funded by research grants. And the vast majority originate from the federal government. (She does cancer research if that matters to anyone.) So given how much Trump and the GOP abhor science she is probably screwed. And even if her PhD boss attempted to try and keep her on chances are the same thing that is going to impact my job could hit her for a double whammy.

So basically unless he flips and/or the GOP changes their stated positions my household is screwed. Thankfully we are working towards FIRE so we should be able to survive. But it sets us back years.

RosieTR

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2016, 01:03:30 PM »
Remember the kid in junior high who always tried to act tough and macho to fit in?  That's Trump in a nutshell.  He's always been mostly talk.  I think it may be sinking in that for perhaps the first time in his life he's going to be held accountable for what he's said.  And it's scaring the SHIT out of him.

I hope you're right. I get a very different vibe, which is that he doesn't care much of what happens as long as he's getting attention. Which he will get for 4 years, in abundance. I think he's going to hand off all the detail stuff to his underlings (Pence and others) and do things to possibly piss off the GOP now and then because, more attention. I think that will be talk/bluster at international relations (attention from foreigners too!). So yes, agree it's a little unpredictable, but I also think we'll get Pence's agenda: defunding PP for sure, big reductions in other reproductive freedoms, repeal of Roe v Wade in a couple of years if they can install the right judges; legislation to grant the ability to discriminate against people just because you think they're gay, maybe repeal of gay marriage similar to the Roe v Wade situation. Pence cares a lot about the social evangelical agenda, and Trump gives even less of a crap now about it than when he was running. As for the economics, Paul Ryan is the guy. His agenda is very heavy on trickle-down to the point that Reagan looks like a tax-and-spend guy. Ryan cares about this a LOT, so has the will to push it through and has the details lined up. Again, Trump doesn't care all that much about the details as long as people are paying attention to him. They can push all this stuff through, having available all the lines of government (executive, legislative and soon, judicial) and Trump will sign because it will pander to his attention-getting. Maybe once in awhile he'll balk just for fun. But liberals will squawk at a lot of this, so it will still be plenty of attention.

Income taxes for all but the very wealthy will likely rise, capital gains taxes will likely be reduced or stay the same, ACA and other medical programs (Medicaid, maybe Medicare) will be gutted. If you're poor, good luck with that. The real bitch is that the combo of a Pence agenda reducing birth control availability and a Ryan reduction in other services for the poor mean a LOT more children born into struggling families. And that will not only be a moral issue but also reverberate for generations.

Nobody in the administration will give a rat's ass about climate. So if you are in the west, plan now for drought. Don't buy a house in southern Florida; they won't have fresh water in our lifetimes and possibly a lot sooner.

What Trump won't do? Bring much back in the way of jobs. Like previously pointed out, these are moving more toward automation, not less. Elon Musk isn't going to stop building self-driving electric cars because of Trump-he can just take it to Europe or wherever there's a market. Already a truck has made a successful delivery drive down an interstate in Colorado; trucking is one of the biggest employers of low-educated men in the US, especially in Rust Belt and Deep South areas. If there's nothing to stem the loss of those jobs, those guys are going to be disillusioned by Trump.

rubybeth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #69 on: November 09, 2016, 01:04:18 PM »
I'm seriously worried that a repeal of Obamacare means that our FIRE plans are in jeopardy. We can plan for cost increases but we cannot plan for one of us having our coverage dropped and being uncovered, should we develop a health condition down the road.

Yes, get ready for this. You may be lucky if you never need health care, but if you need coverage and have pre-existing conditions, we'll go back to the old way. People who are saying this will have no affect have not really read any of the details or don't understand how insurers make money.
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RosieTR

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #70 on: November 09, 2016, 01:14:37 PM »
Here is a personal impact view.

I work for a college and my girlfriend works as a researcher for a medical school/hospital. Given the policies Ryan has been trying to get done for the past few years and Trump proposed during the campaign we both could be out of work next year. They want to end federal student aid. They want it all from private banks. But make the colleges be involved in the loan process and decide if someone is a good risk or not based on past academic records, major, and a plethora of other things. The college I work for is small non-profit school and primarily serves under-served adult learners. So many times we don't have academic records that are recent because the people have been working for years. And we don't have a huge endowment. So it could put us out of business. It is next to impossible to guess how people who have been out of formal education for years and sometimes decades may do.
My girlfriend's job is primarily funded by research grants. And the vast majority originate from the federal government. (She does cancer research if that matters to anyone.) So given how much Trump and the GOP abhor science she is probably screwed. And even if her PhD boss attempted to try and keep her on chances are the same thing that is going to impact my job could hit her for a double whammy.

So basically unless he flips and/or the GOP changes their stated positions my household is screwed. Thankfully we are working towards FIRE so we should be able to survive. But it sets us back years.

I agree that NIH, NASA, etc will probably be drastically cut, with the super-conservative idea that somehow this will be funded by industry. It won't. Maybe the EU will fill in some, but it will put a number of people out of work along with delaying discoveries that could be life-saving. Maybe she can retool for big data or compliance work? There will be some industry potential there.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #71 on: November 09, 2016, 01:16:26 PM »
Here is a personal impact view.

I work for a college and my girlfriend works as a researcher for a medical school/hospital. Given the policies Ryan has been trying to get done for the past few years and Trump proposed during the campaign we both could be out of work next year. They want to end federal student aid. They want it all from private banks. But make the colleges be involved in the loan process and decide if someone is a good risk or not based on past academic records, major, and a plethora of other things. The college I work for is small non-profit school and primarily serves under-served adult learners. So many times we don't have academic records that are recent because the people have been working for years. And we don't have a huge endowment. So it could put us out of business. It is next to impossible to guess how people who have been out of formal education for years and sometimes decades may do.
My girlfriend's job is primarily funded by research grants. And the vast majority originate from the federal government. (She does cancer research if that matters to anyone.) So given how much Trump and the GOP abhor science she is probably screwed. And even if her PhD boss attempted to try and keep her on chances are the same thing that is going to impact my job could hit her for a double whammy.

So basically unless he flips and/or the GOP changes their stated positions my household is screwed. Thankfully we are working towards FIRE so we should be able to survive. But it sets us back years.

I agree that NIH, NASA, etc will probably be drastically cut, with the super-conservative idea that somehow this will be funded by industry. It won't. Maybe the EU will fill in some, but it will put a number of people out of work along with delaying discoveries that could be life-saving. Maybe she can retool for big data or compliance work? There will be some industry potential there.

Or structural engineering or construction? I hear there might be a lot of workers needed for concrete, particularly along the border.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #72 on: November 09, 2016, 01:59:45 PM »
1) Repeal of the estate tax. This aligns with the beliefs of both traditional Republicans and billionaires everywhere.

2) The wall? Will it really be built? Do we raise taxes to build it?

3) The US will stop accepting Muslims as refugees. The Republicans already want to stop this and it aligns with Trump's rhetoric.

4) ACA will be repealed and possibly replaced with a watered-down health care plan. Would Trump and the Republicans kick out those with pre-existing conditions? Possibly. They could be sent back to the super-expensive last resort state pools.

5) NAFTA. Would Trump dismantle it, as hinted? Would this cause Texas to go into a depression? It would certainly hurt Mexico.


Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #73 on: November 09, 2016, 02:03:39 PM »
1) Repeal of the estate tax. This aligns with the beliefs of both traditional Republicans and billionaires everywhere.

2) The wall? Will it really be built? Do we raise taxes to build it?

3) The US will stop accepting Muslims as refugees. The Republicans already want to stop this and it aligns with Trump's rhetoric.

4) ACA will be repealed and possibly replaced with a watered-down health care plan. Would Trump and the Republicans kick out those with pre-existing conditions? Possibly. They could be sent back to the super-expensive last resort state pools.

5) NAFTA. Would Trump dismantle it, as hinted? Would this cause Texas to go into a depression? It would certainly hurt Mexico.
Which did not exist in many states before ACA.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #74 on: November 09, 2016, 02:17:45 PM »
4) ACA will be repealed and possibly replaced with a watered-down health care plan. Would Trump and the Republicans kick out those with pre-existing conditions? Possibly. They could be sent back to the super-expensive last resort state pools.
Which did not exist in many states before ACA.

Right. Never underestimate the "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" crowd, though. There wasn't a fix then and there probably won't be a fix in February. Or, rather, the fix will be "move or get healthier."

dycker1978

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #75 on: November 09, 2016, 02:20:32 PM »
This thread is about the realistic impacts of Trump as president.  The general consensus is that his campaign was primarily bullshit, saying what he needed to say to get in.  Epically when it came to the LGBT community rights.

Let me tell you a story.  This is a true story, I cannot share names and locations of the people in this story because I need to respect their privacy.

My youngest son is transgender.  I do not care to argue your belief in this matter, my opinion and beliefs will not change and neither will yours.  Because my son is in the LGBT community, I have gotten involved, very involved.  I am a member of several support groups, including a north American support group for gender diverse children.

Now, everyone know Trumps hate speech towards the LCBT community and the promises he has made to revert marriage equality, and even to start shock conversion therapy again.  Since the election has ended, with Trump as the president elect, the north American support group has exploded with activity.  There has been a total of 15 suicides committed by youth in this group, primarily 16-20 years old ( all but one, who was 14).  They have all left notes, and they all say that they have taken their life.  The notes are all different, of course, but say basically that with Trump in power, they cannot be who they are anyway.  The 1-800 help lines for LGBT youth are jammed full as are those for transgender youth as well.  This is a real effect of this election so far.  Who gives a fuck about policy, about taxes?  Our youth is killing themselves over this.

For those asking who gets to choose what racism is.  This is blatant homophobia causing these deaths...

FXF

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #76 on: November 09, 2016, 02:24:05 PM »
This thread is about the realistic impacts of Trump as president.  The general consensus is that his campaign was primarily bullshit, saying what he needed to say to get in.  Epically when it came to the LGBT community rights.

Let me tell you a story.  This is a true story, I cannot share names and locations of the people in this story because I need to respect their privacy.

My youngest son is transgender.  I do not care to argue your belief in this matter, my opinion and beliefs will not change and neither will yours.  Because my son is in the LGBT community, I have gotten involved, very involved.  I am a member of several support groups, including a north American support group for gender diverse children.

Now, everyone know Trumps hate speech towards the LCBT community and the promises he has made to revert marriage equality, and even to start shock conversion therapy again.  Since the election has ended, with Trump as the president elect, the north American support group has exploded with activity.  There has been a total of 15 suicides committed by youth in this group, primarily 16-20 years old ( all but one, who was 14).  They have all left notes, and they all say that they have taken their life.  The notes are all different, of course, but say basically that with Trump in power, they cannot be who they are anyway.  The 1-800 help lines for LGBT youth are jammed full as are those for transgender youth as well.  This is a real effect of this election so far.  Who gives a fuck about policy, about taxes?  Our youth is killing themselves over this.

For those asking who gets to choose what racism is.  This is blatant homophobia causing these deaths...
Chilling.
I'm still somewhat shell shocked...

oldtoyota

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #77 on: November 09, 2016, 02:49:31 PM »
I doubt you'll see the apocalypse that some have predicted. Maybe it's the alcohol talking but I think Trump will be determined to prove himself capable in the role.

You will not see any nukes. But you will see swift military retribution against any foreign country that threatens America (in whatever way, shape or form "threatened" takes).

I agree there will be significant tax cuts for the 1%. There will be attempts to shift the centre to the right. There will be a reframing of the culture wars - the topics so beloved by the left - gay marriage, climate change, refugees.

It won't be pretty, but the millions out there who have felt ignored, isolated and left out of 21st century progress will now feel like they are on top.

It won't change a damn thing for them however. Trump will govern for those like him, just as most politicians do. The situation for the server at the local Maccas will still be the same in 4 years time.

^ This. I predict trump's blue-collar supporters will be experiencing a steamin' hot bowl of buyer's (voter's?) remorse before his first (and, one hopes, only) term is half over. While I'm sure that what benefits wealthy CEOs also benefits those who work for them in some magical fairyland somewhere I don't see The Donald as having the will to cause that to happen in the real world. As far as bringing jobs back from China, he could have done that with his own signature clothing line. But he didn't. I feel somewhat bad for those who feel like they've been left out of whatever prosperity the rest of us enjoy (if not the racism and xenophobia that seems to accompany it) but that sympathy is tempered by the knowledge that they should have questioned Trump's ability and/or desire to actually make it come about. Instead they blindly accepted what they wanted to hear. In short- they were played, pure and simple.

Exactly. I'm thinking of a profile I read about a man in his forties who said he would vote for Trump because voting for Obama didn't help his life or help him get a new job. I wasn't clear on what this person expected a POTUS to do in the job department. It makes me sad. As you said, these people were played.

And, if it matters, the man was a minority, which was part of the point of the article.




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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #78 on: November 09, 2016, 03:10:14 PM »
So very sorry to hear about the suicides.  I really don't know what people were thinking when voting for him.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #79 on: November 09, 2016, 03:27:06 PM »
If we can't realistically predict how Trump will govern, assuming all his campaign promises are bullshit, is anyone else doing OMY for Trump?  I know I planned to give notice at the end of the year, but now... a lot seems up in the air.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #80 on: November 09, 2016, 03:44:38 PM »
If we can't realistically predict how Trump will govern, assuming all his campaign promises are bullshit, is anyone else doing OMY for Trump?  I know I planned to give notice at the end of the year, but now... a lot seems up in the air.

My last day is actually in 3 weeks. I'm thinking of taking another contract for next year until I see what happens to the ACA.

Or, since we're healthy, we might just go for it and do some medical tourism when pre-existing conditions eventually exclude us.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #81 on: November 09, 2016, 03:54:41 PM »
I expect the next world war to be fought on Twitter.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #82 on: November 09, 2016, 04:11:10 PM »
I can't guess what the impacts of his presidency will be.  He's such a bullshitter that it's impossible to know what he really believes/understands/plans, or how these will change from day to day.

But his election is an impact on integrity, on honesty, education, respect, compassion, tolerance and even the most basic courtesy.  Perhaps the consequences for global economics and security won't be as dire as many fear, but the impact on values is appalling.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #83 on: November 09, 2016, 04:16:33 PM »
4) ACA will be repealed and possibly replaced with a watered-down health care plan. Would Trump and the Republicans kick out those with pre-existing conditions? Possibly. They could be sent back to the super-expensive last resort state pools.
Which did not exist in many states before ACA.

Even when they did exist, pre-ACA, some of those states' high-risk pools were difficult to get into.  There was essentially a waiting list.  And they could be unaffordable.

When the ACA is repealed, if you have a pre-existing condition, you're in trouble if you're not working in a company big enough to have shared-cost healthcare coverage.  You may be able to get charity coverage for emergency procedures.

Individual insurance premiums will likely increase at a very high rate, since individuals who opt for coverage are those who need it more.

The silver lining is that, he wants to allow health insurance companies to compete nationally.  It's possible that economies of scale will decrease some overhead costs and increase negotiation power.  It remains to be seen if states will give up their regulatory power though.  And hospitals and insurance companies are already negotiating fiercely. 

Be careful.  If you have employer coverage, you might want to stay employed until we know what will happen.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #84 on: November 09, 2016, 04:19:00 PM »
My fear is that he meant it when he said that Pence would handle all affairs foreign and domestic.  If Trump only wants to be a puppet and to let Pence run the show for him ala Cheney, then we better watch out.  Pence is a "true believer" of some pretty scary and draconian stuff.  Even with all the tapes, we may find that Trump really is the more respectful of the two when it comes to important women's rights.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #85 on: November 09, 2016, 04:27:02 PM »
Well we know one thing already: he'll try his damnedest to destroy what little we do to protect the planet.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/

Equally if not more appalling, appointees on deck for other cabinet positions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in-president-trump-cabinet-231071

Wow one could only hope that this list is a very rough draft. Sarah Palin, Ben Carson, Rick Perry, Sessions, all inept to lead just about any department.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #86 on: November 09, 2016, 05:21:50 PM »
I think Trump will nominate semi-random people to cabinet positions. They won't have much to do since he'll strip most regulations and Ryan will get congress to defund enforcement of the rest.  Undocumented aliens will be deported.  Luckily without the pesky government enforcing regulations, we can pay these newly employed $1/hr. More awesomeness for his supporters since that will bring jobs back to the US. Yeah, a lot will go bankrupt from medical expenses from lack of insurance (diabetes is a pre-existing condition!), lack of pay and lack of welfare, but overall very great outlook. Their church can take care of them and there's always subsistence farming/hunting in a regulation-free utopia (projected deer population, 2018: 2, living off the White House lawn.)

But in all seriousness, no one knows what'll happen. That's why We the People should be heavily armed and ready to defend ourselves.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #87 on: November 09, 2016, 05:50:13 PM »
Thats alright Trump can spend eight years fucking the city folk over and we will elect socialist and we can seesaw our way to a full blown fascist if we haven't already gotten there this go around.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #88 on: November 09, 2016, 06:53:07 PM »
Well we know one thing already: he'll try his damnedest to destroy what little we do to protect the planet.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/

Equally if not more appalling, appointees on deck for other cabinet positions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in-president-trump-cabinet-231071

Well nothing says "I'm gonna bring this country together" more than choosing a climate denier to head up the EPA. I had a small glimmer of hope, but that is fading fast.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #89 on: November 09, 2016, 07:07:13 PM »
4) ACA will be repealed and possibly replaced with a watered-down health care plan. Would Trump and the Republicans kick out those with pre-existing conditions? Possibly. They could be sent back to the super-expensive last resort state pools.
Which did not exist in many states before ACA.

Even when they did exist, pre-ACA, some of those states' high-risk pools were difficult to get into.  There was essentially a waiting list.  And they could be unaffordable.

When the ACA is repealed, if you have a pre-existing condition, you're in trouble if you're not working in a company big enough to have shared-cost healthcare coverage.  You may be able to get charity coverage for emergency procedures.

Individual insurance premiums will likely increase at a very high rate, since individuals who opt for coverage are those who need it more.

The silver lining is that, he wants to allow health insurance companies to compete nationally.  It's possible that economies of scale will decrease some overhead costs and increase negotiation power.  It remains to be seen if states will give up their regulatory power though.  And hospitals and insurance companies are already negotiating fiercely. 

Be careful.  If you have employer coverage, you might want to stay employed until we know what will happen.

To be fair, everything but the pre-existing conditions issue is present in the ACA - still very expensive, still getting more and more expensive every year, hospitals have trouble operating under some of the rules, and many doctors/hospitals are pulling out of the affordable plans.  I refuse to believe there isn't a better option than what we currently have for healthcare in this country.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #90 on: November 09, 2016, 07:13:23 PM »
Well we know one thing already: he'll try his damnedest to destroy what little we do to protect the planet.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-picks-top-climate-skeptic-to-lead-epa-transition/

Equally if not more appalling, appointees on deck for other cabinet positions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/who-is-in-president-trump-cabinet-231071

Well nothing says "I'm gonna bring this country together" more than choosing a climate denier to head up the EPA. I had a small glimmer of hope, but that is fading fast.

The potential appointment of Myron Ebell to the EPA is concerning in a multi-generational kind of way.

The extent to which Trump will actually deliver the opposite of what we need makes my brain hurt. That it will also disproportionately hurt the marginalized that he tapped into to get elected just pushes it over the edge.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #91 on: November 09, 2016, 08:17:23 PM »

Even when they did exist, pre-ACA, some of those states' high-risk pools were difficult to get into.  There was essentially a waiting list.  And they could be unaffordable.

When the ACA is repealed, if you have a pre-existing condition, you're in trouble if you're not working in a company big enough to have shared-cost healthcare coverage.  You may be able to get charity coverage for emergency procedures.

Individual insurance premiums will likely increase at a very high rate, since individuals who opt for coverage are those who need it more.

The silver lining is that, he wants to allow health insurance companies to compete nationally.  It's possible that economies of scale will decrease some overhead costs and increase negotiation power.  It remains to be seen if states will give up their regulatory power though.  And hospitals and insurance companies are already negotiating fiercely. 

Be careful.  If you have employer coverage, you might want to stay employed until we know what will happen.

To be fair, everything but the pre-existing conditions issue is present in the ACA - still very expensive, still getting more and more expensive every year, hospitals have trouble operating under some of the rules, and many doctors/hospitals are pulling out of the affordable plans.  I refuse to believe there isn't a better option than what we currently have for healthcare in this country.

Clawbacks and caps were removed with ACA too.  ACA has an option for dental coverage.

I don't have nationwide data, and it's hard to compare apples to apples with insurance plans. But in my northeastern state, the single adult + children ACA plans costs are on par with the coverage and cost I get through a megacorp.  I'd wish for both to be more "affordable", but that's a different problem.

My employer's plans have problems almost every year as they renegotiate with hospitals.  We get warning letters from the insurance company, "Stop using hospital X, we were not able to negotiate an agreement this year."  And doctors frequently drop off my employer's plan too.  "Sorry, we no longer accept that insurance as they only pay out at medicaid rates."  New doctors are added though.

This isn't to defend the current system, but to say that the ACA is not so different, cost-wise.  Like you, I also believe there is a better way, although it may well involve some hard choices.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #92 on: November 09, 2016, 08:41:29 PM »
I expect the following.

1. Anti-tech, anti-intellectual, anti-press bias. Donnie has already picked out several companies to attack (apple, google, new york times...)

2. Fucked up world standing. He's going to shake his dick at someone on twitter or in a diplomatic meeting, and Russia is going to take over half of Latvia and China will take over half the Philippines, and so on.

3. I expect to see much more gerrymandering, poll obstruction to prevent poor/black/etc people from voting, and a loss of health insurance for some twenty million people.

4. Gay people might lose their right to marry, women are going to continue losing their rights to abortion in many states.

5. Democrats are going to lose even harder in 2018.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #93 on: November 09, 2016, 10:25:38 PM »
5. Democrats are going to lose even harder in 2018.

There is a high likelihood just based on the seats that are up for election that republicans will make gains in the senate in 2018, possibly getting to the filibuster proof 60 seat count

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #94 on: November 09, 2016, 10:40:41 PM »
Gay people might lose their right to marry ...

Gay people have always had the right to marry, everywhere in the United States. That is unlikely to change. The former marriage restrictions were based on gender, not on sexual preference. To be sure, those gender-based restrictions were fundamentally unjust, but I see no reason to obscure the issue by using popular news media rhetoric about "gay marriage" and "gay people ... los[ing] their right to marry".

The gender-based restrictions
  • did not affect all people who identified or identify as gay, and
  • did not affect only people who identified or identify as gay,
and therefore it makes little sense to paint this issue as being about the "right to marry" of "gay people". That language is simultaneously under-inclusive and over-inclusive.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 10:42:14 PM by Cathy »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #95 on: November 09, 2016, 10:46:48 PM »

Manufacturing will not come back. It's not a matter of them leaving the States; it's a matter of simply fewer of them due to automation. Nothing Trump can do will fix that.


Robot tax

I doubt this will actually happen, but it's an interesting thought. Also, if there was such a thing, wouldn't the money just go to the government, and not into creating more jobs? US manufacturing output has doubled in the past 30 years and is still the biggest sector in the US economysource, despite what many people think. A lot of that increased efficiency is from robots/automation, so even if a  tax were imposed I would bet most manufacturing companies would just pay it and continue using the new technology.
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chesebert

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #96 on: November 09, 2016, 10:47:57 PM »
Good god. Stop posting like you are writing law review. Does "losing their right to marry another individual of the same gender" work for you?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #97 on: November 09, 2016, 11:02:45 PM »
Gay people have always had the right to marry, everywhere in the United States.

Cathy, this is unjustly pedantic even for you.

Saying that gay people weren't unfairly discriminated against because they could legally marry someone of the opposite gender is deliberately missing the entire point. 

You might as well say lynchings were always legal because they didn't actually kill black people, black people just happened to die of asphyxiation after being lynched.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #98 on: November 09, 2016, 11:11:47 PM »
This morning a number of my coworkers were jokingly taking bets on how quickly NATO would fall apart and which countries Russia would immediately take control of.  Trump made a lot of anti-alliance speeches implying he'd be willing to give up our eastern-most allies for a thaw with Russia.  I hope he or his staff figure out a way to keep his ego/mouth in check when it comes to dealing with other governments. 

I think he'll make maintaining the current size of the military a priority, but his campaign promises of increases are fantasy without major spending.  In the same speech where he almost told the Baltics they'd be on their own, he promised what amounted to $100 billion in more ships, planes, and troops.  He promised numbers without mentioning the price tag, but it's not hard to figure out.  It's in the Republican playbook that he had to give a bigger military speech, so who knows.

With Republicans controlling Congress and the Presidency I'm worried about an anti-science and anti-environmental agenda being pushed through. That was one thing the host of Republican Primary challengers all seemed to agree on.

I hope he's serious about finding a way to jack up funding for infrastructure. We have roads, bridges, pipes, and electrical falling apart.  I read a report from 2010 saying we're $2 trillion short of maintaining it all.

The Republicans will probably see a rollback of their majority if they don't do something with the ACA next year.  Ryan's speech made it sound like a priority, and from what I'm reading a fair chunk of Trump's victory hinged on people's opinions of healthcare so expect to see something soon on that.
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Cathy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #99 on: November 09, 2016, 11:20:42 PM »
Good god. Stop posting like you are writing law review. Does "losing their right to marry another individual of the same gender" work for you?

My preferred phrasing is to speak of the elimination of gender-based restrictions for marriage (or the restoration of them as the case may be). I prefer not to speak about the gender or sexual preferences of the parties to a proposed marriage. Although it may seem like pedantry, I think my terminology is more inclusive and better promotes equality. In contrast, the popular news media terminology propagates certain problematic narratives about the concept of sexual preference and its relation to romantic relationships, among other issues.


As for your other comment, I'm not sure why you are approaching my posts so antagonistically. I also detected a hint of animosity in the post that I replied to here. My posts on the forum are written in my normal voice.


Cathy, this is unjustly pedantic even for you.

I have always disliked the term "gay marriage" and its derivative forms (such as speaking of the right to marry of "gay people"). As mentioned above, I think those terms subtly endorse problematic views. My complaint with the terms imparts no view on the underlying subject matter.


Saying that gay people weren't unfairly discriminated against

I didn't say this. It's undeniable that the gender-based restrictions had an adverse, and discriminatory, effect on people who identified or identify as gay. This was not disputed in my earlier post.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 11:37:29 PM by Cathy »
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