Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 251590 times)

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #250 on: November 27, 2016, 03:42:49 PM »

"Power associated as a source of enrichment, personal affirmation and domination." That sounds about right to me.

Interesting.  As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.
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sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #251 on: November 27, 2016, 05:06:25 PM »
As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

Which three do you think Trump has "gone against"?  It's a serious question, because I honestly can't tell.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #252 on: November 27, 2016, 06:54:01 PM »
Tonight Trump is on a Tweet storm about recounts and election results.  I think he has dementia.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #253 on: November 27, 2016, 07:00:36 PM »
Tonight Trump is on a Tweet storm about recounts and election results.  I think he has dementia.

Apparently he is claiming he only lost the popular vote due to voter fraud?  Did I read that right?


waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #254 on: November 27, 2016, 07:10:09 PM »
This latest twitter thing is embarrassing to me as an American citizen. One of many such embarrassments I am sure are coming.

I guess claiming voter fraud after you *won* an election, by his standards, is not that high on the embarrassing-tweet scale. Or did he use the c-word or call some ethnicity/gender/nationality all chronic masturbators or something?

Nothing like a gracious victor.

-W

oldtoyota

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #255 on: November 27, 2016, 07:14:51 PM »
A relevant article I just came across. And this is before we really talk about reducing research funding:

[url][/http://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/26/university-of-wisconsinmadison-drops-in-research-rankingurl]

This is an expected result of education cuts in Wisconsin. When a researcher leaves, they usually take their research funding with them.  I expect them to drop further as the University struggles to attract new talents. I think our governor is realizing this and has stated he will replace some of the cuts in the next budget. Time will tell, but the damage might already have been done.  A reputation takes decades to build, yet can be destroyed in moments.

If Trump and the GOP are successful in less funding as a whole, that may actually make UW-Madison rise back up in the rankings due to all funding lowering nationwide. A tide lowers all ships even easier than it raises them.

I'd be surprised if your governor replaces some of the cuts. Hope he does though.


oldtoyota

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #256 on: November 27, 2016, 07:15:45 PM »
Tonight Trump is on a Tweet storm about recounts and election results.  I think he has dementia.

No. It is called lying and/or gaslighting.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #257 on: November 27, 2016, 07:31:40 PM »
Tonight Trump is on a Tweet storm about recounts and election results.  I think he has dementia.

No. It is called lying and/or gaslighting.

Thank you for mentioning the gaslighting. It had been a few months since I thought of Trump in that framework and it is very apt. It is also disrespectful and disgusting.

http://www.healthyplace.com/abuse/emotional-psychological-abuse/gaslighting-definition-techniques-and-being-gaslighted/

http://www.vox.com/identities/2016/10/8/13206832/trump-leaked-audio-sexual-assault-rape-gaslighting-abuse

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #258 on: November 28, 2016, 02:14:00 AM »

"Power associated as a source of enrichment, personal affirmation and domination." That sounds about right to me.

Interesting.  As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

Could you expound on your reasoning?

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #259 on: November 28, 2016, 03:55:51 AM »
As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

Which three do you think Trump has "gone against"?  It's a serious question, because I honestly can't tell.

Enrichment - turning down the presidential paycheck. An easy $400K/year for him, that turning down does not increase either of the other two stated power sources.

Domination - he has walked back his promises to jail political opponents and walked back his originally stated intentions to freeze out/attack journalistic interests that are unfavorable.  He has also stated that his advisors/cabinet/VP will be running more day-to-day operations.  Pretty much the opposite of domination.

(This is not to say that at least some of these drivers do not exist in his plans in at least some capacity, but clearly there is an argument that these are not his primary drivers for power, at least in context of the United States Presidency.)
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 03:57:43 AM by Metric Mouse »
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MustacheMathTM

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #260 on: November 28, 2016, 04:16:38 AM »
As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

Which three do you think Trump has "gone against"?  It's a serious question, because I honestly can't tell.

Enrichment - turning down the presidential paycheck. An easy $400K/year for him, that turning down does not increase either of the other two stated power sources.
$400k is chump change compared to what he will be in a position to make by not selling his business interests or putting them into a "blind" trust, and by doing deals on the back of being President including deals with foreign powers.

Domination - he has walked back his promises to jail political opponents and walked back his originally stated intentions to freeze out/attack journalistic interests that are unfavorable.  He has also stated that his advisors/cabinet/VP will be running more day-to-day operations.  Pretty much the opposite of domination

(This is not to say that at least some of these drivers do not exist in his plans in at least some capacity, but clearly there is an argument that these are not his primary drivers for power, at least in context of the United States Presidency.)
Trump had bugger all chance of getting a successful prosecution of HRC off the ground, and he's always known it.  Did he promise to jail anyone else?  He will manipulate the media to his heart's content and he will either back, sack or counteract his advisers/cabinet/VP as the whim takes him.

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Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #261 on: November 28, 2016, 04:27:12 AM »
This may be true- but again, why turn down easy money? If enrichment was a primary goal it would contraindicate turning down easy cash. While enrichment may be a side-effect of his actions, it seems that he's done the opposite of what he would do if it were his primary focus.

Point the second - HRC: Trump will probably have a bugger of a time with a lot of things. But if domination were his primary end goal, why would he forfeit even attempting the actions that would so clearly display his domination of political opponents?

I think the arguments presented so far fall pretty flat, and while they may sound good in the echo chamber, when faced with the light of truth they are a little weak. These are the type of evidence that I considered as I formed my argument against the original statements.  There are so many things to dislike about Donald Trump; I'm not sure why people would feel the need to make up more.

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MustacheMathTM

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #262 on: November 28, 2016, 04:56:08 AM »
Turning down easy money?  It's an easy win for him.  It makes him look good to his supporters (hey, he's draining the swamp, right?).  He may also be thinking that it will make scrutiny of his finances harder, so less likelihood of them being investigated/challenged.  And he would have to pay federal taxes on it, which may be the biggest reason of all for him not to take it.

It's not domination to try and fail - Trump would be on a loser if he tried to prosecute HRC and being is loser is the opposite of domination - and Trump hates to lose.
Be frugal and industrious, and you will be free (Ben Franklin)

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #263 on: November 28, 2016, 12:07:06 PM »
Turning down easy money?  It's an easy win for him.  It makes him look good to his supporters (hey, he's draining the swamp, right?).  He may also be thinking that it will make scrutiny of his finances harder, so less likelihood of them being investigated/challenged.  And he would have to pay federal taxes on it, which may be the biggest reason of all for him not to take it.

It's not domination to try and fail - Trump would be on a loser if he tried to prosecute HRC and being is loser is the opposite of domination - and Trump hates to lose.

Plus he likely can't turn down the money.  It's a super easy promise to make when he doesn't have a choice.  He could donate it back to the government, but we would never know since he doesn't release financial records

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #264 on: November 28, 2016, 12:10:30 PM »

Plus he likely can't turn down the money.  It's a super easy promise to make when he doesn't have a choice.  He could donate it back to the government, but we would never know since he doesn't release financial records

This may be an actual point. Claiming to turn down money while not actually doing it would not support my argument very well. Speculation, but a fair point.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #265 on: November 28, 2016, 12:22:37 PM »
Turning down easy money?  It's an easy win for him.  It makes him look good to his supporters (hey, he's draining the swamp, right?).  He may also be thinking that it will make scrutiny of his finances harder, so less likelihood of them being investigated/challenged.  And he would have to pay federal taxes on it, which may be the biggest reason of all for him not to take it.

It's not domination to try and fail - Trump would be on a loser if he tried to prosecute HRC and being is loser is the opposite of domination - and Trump hates to lose.

It may not make his finances harder to investigate, but it's more a symbolic situation that he is not beholden to any sort of salary. Meaning that symbolically, he would not be working for the American people. I don't know as it would make much difference, but it's not like refusing a salary is some sort of angel move on his part.
This article describes it more fully if you care:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/donald-trump-salary-george-washington-214458

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #266 on: November 28, 2016, 05:43:24 PM »
Trump bought into an Infowars (Alex Jones) story about "millions of illegal voters" throwing the election.  Infowars got the story from some twitter guy who made it up.
So the President-elect tweets based on bullsh#t.  We are so screwed.

Can't wait for the Area 51 files.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 05:49:04 PM by jim555 »

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #267 on: November 28, 2016, 06:22:01 PM »
When your own president spreads made up bullshit.... *face palm*

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #268 on: November 28, 2016, 06:42:07 PM »
When your own president spreads made up bullshit.... *face palm*
... while simultaneously declining security briefings from the intelligence services.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/donald-trump-turning-away-intelligence-briefers-amid-warnings/

The logical conclusion is that we actually elected Pence but still have to listen to Trump.

jrhampt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #269 on: November 28, 2016, 06:54:01 PM »
When your own president spreads made up bullshit.... *face palm*

He did this throughout his campaign.  It's consistent with how he's behaving now as president elect and with how he will behave as president.  It's  partly what got him elected in the first place.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #270 on: November 29, 2016, 04:36:05 AM »
When your own president spreads made up bullshit.... *face palm*
... while simultaneously declining security briefings from the intelligence services.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/donald-trump-turning-away-intelligence-briefers-amid-warnings/

The logical conclusion is that we actually elected Pence but still have to listen to Trump.

Great. Now we can have more threads about how "60 million more Americans voted for Hillary than for Pence."
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #271 on: November 29, 2016, 07:32:54 AM »
I don't know....if the transition is any indication, the most important impact might be worse mental health outcomes for millions of Americans.  It's tough to not be demoralized by what is going on right now. 

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #272 on: November 29, 2016, 09:04:12 AM »
Trump continues to Twitterbomb the Interwebs.  Now flag burning.  He is a master troll.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #273 on: November 29, 2016, 09:07:47 AM »
Further news about Trump appointments after Environment and Health appointments -

Early Years Child Care - Herod Agrippa

Supreme Court Justice - Pontius Pilate
« Last Edit: November 29, 2016, 09:13:40 AM by former player »
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GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #274 on: November 29, 2016, 10:00:36 AM »
Why would Pilate be a poor appointment?  He put aside his personal wishes/beliefs to fulfill the letter of the law.  That's like . . . totally what you want from an SCJ.

Northwestie

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #275 on: November 29, 2016, 10:28:49 AM »
I saw an article this morning with interviews of folks in rural KY and TN - yep - they voted for Trump but are now concerned he'll follow thru and remove their health care and are worried about the extra costs.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #276 on: November 29, 2016, 10:32:19 AM »
I saw an article this morning with interviews of folks in rural KY and TN - yep - they voted for Trump but are now concerned he'll follow thru and remove their health care and are worried about the extra costs.

Good, you reap what you sow (or vote for)......even still,  they will probably vote (R) next time.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #277 on: November 29, 2016, 11:22:59 AM »
I saw an article this morning with interviews of folks in rural KY and TN - yep - they voted for Trump but are now concerned he'll follow thru and remove their health care and are worried about the extra costs.

Good, you reap what you sow (or vote for)......even still,  they will probably vote (R) next time.
Matt Bevin ran on getting rid of Medicaid expansion in KY.  He won, got rid of Kynect (the state run ACA web site), made things a lot more inconvenient.  The people he hurt will probably give him a second term.  Amazing.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #278 on: November 29, 2016, 03:19:00 PM »
Trump continues to Twitterbomb the Interwebs.  Now flag burning.  He is a master troll.

It's all about confusion and deception to remove focus from real problems/crime/moral ethical violations/personal or family enrichment.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #279 on: November 29, 2016, 04:56:14 PM »
Trump continues to Twitterbomb the Interwebs.  Now flag burning.  He is a master troll.

It's all about confusion and deception to remove focus from real problems/crime/moral ethical violations/personal or family enrichment.

Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

You're giving Trump too much credit. I don't think he's calculating the pros and cons of a twitter storm and then doing it after a conclusion like you've reached above. I think he just blurts shit out cause that's how he is.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #280 on: November 29, 2016, 06:08:48 PM »
When your own president spreads made up bullshit.... *face palm*
... while simultaneously declining security briefings from the intelligence services.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/24/donald-trump-turning-away-intelligence-briefers-amid-warnings/

The logical conclusion is that we actually elected Pence but still have to listen to Trump.

I think we all assumed this would be the case, but listening to Trump on a regular base with the legitimacy that his office brings is as unhealthy as all of us trolling twitter.

It will be interesting to see how his cabinet members will likely try to play on Trumps emotions to get him to sign off on shit. But in general I agree that it is likely he will try to leave as much management as possible in the hands of Pence and others with experience.

I wonder how long it will take for the insiders to convince Trump to fire the cabinet members he hires now that are too incompetent for the positions he is giving them.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #281 on: November 29, 2016, 06:19:24 PM »
Trump continues to Twitterbomb the Interwebs.  Now flag burning.  He is a master troll.

It's all about confusion and deception to remove focus from real problems/crime/moral ethical violations/personal or family enrichment.

Maybe, but I think you give him too much credit. Trump really is a troll. He just can't help but argue in his own self defense with whatever ammo the interwebs give him.

There is no master plan behind it. He is simply infamous for this kind of crap and he has learned over a life time that the truth is irrelevant if people agree with you or it a lie gets you what you want.

Why go after flag burners, he doesn't give a shit about the flag. Not like a veteran or real patriot does. But he is definitely annoyed that people are burning the flag because they hate him.

Why post a stupid tweet about the popular vote. Because he is butt hurt people keep reminding him that he is losing it by millions of votes. A normal politician would laugh and enjoy victory but Trump can't handle any negative press.

Literally every stupid ranting tweet he makes is an immediate reaction to a personal attack. I truly hope that this is lowest the office of the president ever sinks. I literally feel like we can freely say to almost every child in America not only could you possibly be the president, you are likely to be overqualified.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #282 on: November 29, 2016, 06:22:47 PM »
Literally every stupid ranting tweet he makes is an immediate reaction to a personal attack. I truly hope that this is lowest the office of the president ever sinks. I literally feel like we can freely say to almost every child in America not only could you possibly be the president, you are likely to be overqualified.
I think the election results showed pretty clearly that overqualification was, in fact, disqualifying.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #283 on: November 29, 2016, 06:35:20 PM »
Literally every stupid ranting tweet he makes is an immediate reaction to a personal attack. I truly hope that this is lowest the office of the president ever sinks. I literally feel like we can freely say to almost every child in America not only could you possibly be the president, you are likely to be overqualified.
I think the election results showed pretty clearly that overqualification was, in fact, disqualifying.

Touche. Though I would probably argue Hillary was a special case. She had the long history of service, but also a boat load of negatives that put her firmly in the camp of political insider. She also had little to no big political wins to draw on from Obama or her recent history.

Like anything else a long resume isn't going to help if its content isn't as impressive as its length.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #284 on: November 30, 2016, 12:57:41 AM »
If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I think most people here would love to be proved wrong by a Trump presidency. The name calling doesn't help with the discussion though.

I hope I am calling no one names. If the shoe fits, you are a piece of shit and I will not apologize. I hope no shoe fits, and that nothing too bad happens in the next few years. I just want to know at what point both sides have to check the results and admit their rights and wrongs.

Astonishing.  Is this really about ethics in forum posting?

Meanwhile, Trump blasts out a tweetstorm about stolen votes to mask the fact he just had to pay a $25 Million settlement for fraud.

Did anyone know that HE is charging the US government $1M/day in rent for all the space the Secret Service is taking up in his tower?  So all the talk about his not accepting pay is somewhat beside the point, when he can milk $365M/year by just choosing to live in his tower rather than the White House.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #285 on: November 30, 2016, 01:30:19 AM »
Be frugal and industrious, and you will be free (Ben Franklin)

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #286 on: November 30, 2016, 02:03:41 AM »
Trump continues to Twitterbomb the Interwebs.  Now flag burning.  He is a master troll.

It's all about confusion and deception to remove focus from real problems/crime/moral ethical violations/personal or family enrichment.

Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

You're giving Trump too much credit. I don't think he's calculating the pros and cons of a twitter storm and then doing it after a conclusion like you've reached above. I think he just blurts shit out cause that's how he is.

Yeah, you and RangerOne have it right. But doesn't change the fact that it's still happening.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #287 on: November 30, 2016, 02:52:12 PM »
And as much as I don't want Trump to fail for the country's sake I can't root for a person who is so petty and simple minded. For every reasonable thing he is told to say, he says twenty stupid things on twitter which just reminds me how shitty a person our future president is. Whether you think he is going to be dangerous or benign, helpful or harmful is all up for debate but it is an absolute embarrassment that someone like this is able to hold the highest leadership position in the land and speaks very poorly of our political system.

And it is deeply upsetting that the DNC had the gall to ram Clinton down the throats of liberals like she was owed the office of the president because of her sex and loyalty to the party.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #288 on: November 30, 2016, 04:07:33 PM »
I can't believe he isn't aware enough to know that a US President should not be tweeting.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #289 on: November 30, 2016, 06:01:10 PM »
Tweeting is Trumps thing. As long as the Republican base is okay with it, no one is going to stop him. If he starts pissing them off they are going to take his account...

Generally tweeting has only ever gotten people into trouble or fired for saying dumb shit.

Trump has already said so much dumb shit I can hardly think of a tweet that would cross the line. I will be interested to see it if he ever writes it.

KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #290 on: November 30, 2016, 06:04:22 PM »
He is using the tweets to circumvent the media.  He can say whatever he wants, he's the President-elect.

KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #291 on: November 30, 2016, 06:05:50 PM »
And it is deeply upsetting that the DNC had the gall to ram Clinton down the throats of liberals like she was owed the office of the president because of her sex and loyalty to the party.

Bet you're going to love seeing her again in 2020!   You know she almost won this time, that popular vote!

ender

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #292 on: November 30, 2016, 06:30:43 PM »
He's also charging the Secret Service everytime he uses his own jet - $1.6 million so far -

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3804129/Secret-Service-spent-1-6-million-flights-agents-protect-Trump-goes-reimburse-Donald-private-jet.html

From that article:

Quote
Politico reported on Thursday that the Secret Service has paid Clinton's campaign far more than Trump's for its travel $2.6 million in all.



accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #293 on: November 30, 2016, 08:00:34 PM »
He's also charging the Secret Service everytime he uses his own jet - $1.6 million so far -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3804129/Secret-Service-spent-1-6-million-flights-agents-protect-Trump-goes-reimburse-Donald-private-jet.html
From that article:
Quote
Politico reported on Thursday that the Secret Service has paid Clinton's campaign far more than Trump's for its travel $2.6 million in all.

Context, please. The article continues:
Quote
Clinton has had Secret Service protection continuously since 1992, meaning agents have flown with her from the beginning of her campaign.
Their airfare is currently paid to Executive Fliteways, an upstate New York company.
In Trump's case, the reimbursements defray his own costs.

Emphasis mine.

That's the point of the article, and of former player's post.

aprilchem

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #294 on: December 01, 2016, 08:49:12 AM »
I don't usually comment on these types of posts, but there's one idea that I haven't seen in this thread thus far (although I haven't read every single post).

I'm a college professor, and am neither a historian nor a political scientist (I'm a physical scientist) but I associate with a lot of them. I am also very liberal, which isn't necessarily pertinent to this discussion but is honest. 

To a person, nearly all of my friends who are experts are convinced that something very bad is on the horizon.  We just elected an extremely weak, unqualified president and our nation is at odds right now.  Britain is weak because of the Brexit vote.  Russia and Turkey are strong.  Terrorism will thrive under Trump (at least in my opinion), especially if he follows through on his plans to register Muslims in the US.  The world is in a similar place (instability-wise) to where it was before the start of WWI, but now we have nuclear weapons, more effective chemical weapons, and long-range missiles.  Some little thing (a la Archduke Ferdinand) is likely to happen that will start a major war, and millions are likely to die as a result. 

This might sound terribly negative, but given the evidence I do believe it's likely to be true.  The issue is that we don't know where or when this will happen, and who will be affected.   But I believe my life as an American citizen will be very changed 5 years from now from what it is today, and I'm doing my best to prepare for whatever is going to happen.  I really hope that I am wrong. 

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #295 on: December 01, 2016, 09:17:37 AM »
I don't usually comment on these types of posts, but there's one idea that I haven't seen in this thread thus far (although I haven't read every single post).

I'm a college professor, and am neither a historian nor a political scientist (I'm a physical scientist) but I associate with a lot of them. I am also very liberal, which isn't necessarily pertinent to this discussion but is honest. 

To a person, nearly all of my friends who are experts are convinced that something very bad is on the horizon.  We just elected an extremely weak, unqualified president and our nation is at odds right now.  Britain is weak because of the Brexit vote.  Russia and Turkey are strong.  Terrorism will thrive under Trump (at least in my opinion), especially if he follows through on his plans to register Muslims in the US.  The world is in a similar place (instability-wise) to where it was before the start of WWI, but now we have nuclear weapons, more effective chemical weapons, and long-range missiles.  Some little thing (a la Archduke Ferdinand) is likely to happen that will start a major war, and millions are likely to die as a result. 

This might sound terribly negative, but given the evidence I do believe it's likely to be true.  The issue is that we don't know where or when this will happen, and who will be affected.   But I believe my life as an American citizen will be very changed 5 years from now from what it is today, and I'm doing my best to prepare for whatever is going to happen.  I really hope that I am wrong.

I agree. In fact, I can't believe this isn't a fear that is widely shared. Domestically, Trump is likely to have a negative impact on many things, including the economy, but people who are relatively well-off now with a decent amount of social capital don't seem all that worried about his presidency. Internationally, though, having a temperamental, arrogant, incompetent president who doesn't know or care what he doesn't know could trigger, in concordance with other international events, something massive. And Trump will be far too ignorant to know how to try to fix it. Not to mention the members of his cabinet that he is likely to pick are going to be fairly incompetent/unqualified as well. And every single day that he blows off a security briefing in favor of hanging out at Trump tower holding court, I become more convinced of this.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2016, 09:39:24 AM by Kris »
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

ender

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #296 on: December 01, 2016, 10:30:16 AM »
The world is in a similar place (instability-wise) to where it was before the start of WWI, but now we have nuclear weapons, more effective chemical weapons, and long-range missiles.  Some little thing (a la Archduke Ferdinand) is likely to happen that will start a major war, and millions are likely to die as a result. 

How do you figure that the world is similarly as unstable now than it was prior to the start of WWI?

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #297 on: December 01, 2016, 11:00:12 AM »
The world is in a similar place (instability-wise) to where it was before the start of WWI, but now we have nuclear weapons, more effective chemical weapons, and long-range missiles.  Some little thing (a la Archduke Ferdinand) is likely to happen that will start a major war, and millions are likely to die as a result. 

How do you figure that the world is similarly as unstable now than it was prior to the start of WWI?

Yeah, I agree with ender's question. I think that assertion is baseless. By pretty much every measure the world is more peaceful now than at any point in history, especially before WWI. (Note there are no large scale wars, no major famines, no massive epidemics - all of which were occurring just prior to WWI and WWII actually).

The world has never been a safer, more stable, place.

War deaths since 1945: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace-after-1945/

War deaths since 1400: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace-long-run/#global-deaths-in-conflicts-since-the-year-1400ref

jrhampt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #298 on: December 01, 2016, 11:27:59 AM »

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #299 on: December 01, 2016, 11:39:20 AM »
This was written back in July, but I think it makes some good points.  https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714#.veiqsevng

Yes. Nicely put. This is pretty much what I would have articulated, had I taken the time and effort to do so.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.