Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 241098 times)

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2300 on: February 22, 2017, 06:02:04 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2301 on: February 22, 2017, 06:19:13 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.
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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2302 on: February 22, 2017, 06:33:16 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

The Congress has been in power for more than almost two months (January 3rd for the 115th Congress). They also knew they were going to be in power since Nov. 2016.
Finally, they have also had power over the House for 6 years where they have passed many bills on all sorts of topics only to have them die in the Senate or be vetoed by the President. So, it's not like they have to craft a bunch of legislation from scratch. Simply pull up those bills and start passing them. This can be done in the House very easily, why haven't they done so? The House isn't doing any confirmation hearings.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 06:58:03 PM by dividendman »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2303 on: February 22, 2017, 06:39:07 PM »
Regarding ACA: it has been the Worst Thing Ever for many years now yet I've only heard confusion come from the ranks of the Republicans on what will be done with it. But maybe I'm under-informed on what's actually going on and the process for legislative prioritization.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2304 on: February 22, 2017, 08:25:15 PM »
While some Democrats have Trump Derangement Syndrome, the Republicans have become so accustomed to behaving like the opposition party they have no idea what to do now that they have more power.
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

The Congress has been in power for more than almost two months (January 3rd for the 115th Congress). They also knew they were going to be in power since Nov. 2016.
Finally, they have also had power over the House for 6 years where they have passed many bills on all sorts of topics only to have them die in the Senate or be vetoed by the President. So, it's not like they have to craft a bunch of legislation from scratch. Simply pull up those bills and start passing them. This can be done in the House very easily, why haven't they done so? The House isn't doing any confirmation hearings.
This is a good point.  It's not like Trump is going to veto anything, so there should be a flurry of pent-up activity by now.

My theory is that the government has become almost 100% dysfunctional.  Trump, like a bag of sand, has managed to pit every member of every branch against each other and the gears are grinding.  How does a duly elected politician please one's constituents when the President does things that have never been done before but is (self professedly) granting the wishes of the populace?  Do you stand behind him, knowing he's full of 'alternative facts' or do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?
« Last Edit: February 22, 2017, 08:41:43 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
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sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2305 on: February 22, 2017, 08:50:54 PM »
do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

I don't think anyone who stands up to Trump has to worry about ending up on the wrong side of history.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2306 on: February 22, 2017, 09:30:48 PM »
do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

I don't think anyone who stands up to Trump has to worry about ending up on the wrong side of history.

But I also wonder if Mattis, McMaster, Brennan, and many others 'in the know' are freaking out about how to end up 'on the right side' of history.  Government was designed in a time when being terribly complicated and slow moving was an asset.  Nowadays, 4 years could mean the rise of entirely new technologies (game changers in artificial intelligence, war, communications, genetics, longevity, renewable energy, 'incurable' diseases, human physical or mental enhancement...).

So maybe Trump was a mistake, but he may be the last mistake because he has unleashed an unstoppable force (increased benefits to achieve our own interests, reduced politics, or the perception of no manufactured hindrance) against an immovable object (America's status quo).
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radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2307 on: February 23, 2017, 05:53:30 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2308 on: February 23, 2017, 06:08:39 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

Executive orders are easy, actually working with congress is the hard part.  Will be fun to watch.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2309 on: February 23, 2017, 08:17:34 AM »
Anyone come to the conclusion that the immigration deal is simply the wedge issue of the moment to keep the press occupied? I just can't believe Trump came back with a WORSE proposal. It's a win-win-win for him. Promise fulfilled, press hammers futility, supporters happy/detractors angry and distracted. He gets to look good and look like he's trying even if he fails. It's probably even better if he fails! He doesn't have to deal with the repercussions of his bans or mass deportations. When his administration goes to shit, his excuse is lined up.

I want to see more of the Russian connection!
Figure out ACA alternative!
Where the fawk are his tax returns? He is hiding something!

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2310 on: February 23, 2017, 08:21:50 AM »
Quote
Do you stand behind him, knowing he's full of 'alternative facts' or do you stand up to him and risk being on the wrong side of (at least short run) history?

It's a bit more complicated than that probably.  Do you quit and preserve your own reputation, or do you stay and try to minimize the harm that he could do?  If everyone who is competent quits, it leaves a skeleton crew of toadies who will just bow to his every whim. 

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2311 on: February 23, 2017, 08:30:25 AM »
Anyone come to the conclusion that the immigration deal is simply the wedge issue of the moment to keep the press occupied?

Trump is a compulsive (pathological?) liar (sociopath?) and fabricates these distraction daily. Cause that's what liars do. And a lot of people fall for it.

There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2312 on: February 23, 2017, 08:44:04 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

I think that depends on what you call damning.  We already know he doesn't pay any income taxes.  That was shown by the one page that was leaked, and he confirmed it during the debates.  He's been using paper losses from his mismanaged real estate developments to offset income since the 1990s.  He said this makes him "smart".

We also know he doesn't make any charitable donations.  He admitted as much during the debate, and his foundation's books show what he hasn't made any personal contributions since 2005 or something.

And we already know that he's not really a multi-billionaire.  He's admitted as much on television.  His business income mostly comes from licensing his name to other companies, for a fee, and he has used today's low bond rates to convert his annual licensing payments into an assumed equivalent fortune.  Bond rates are extremely low, so a few million per year in licensing fees is "worth" billions of dollars, in the eyes of his accountant.  He doesn't actually own anything of value other than his name that is worth that much.

But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2313 on: February 23, 2017, 08:50:04 AM »
I think that's hard to say a month into them having power. Certainly this seems to be true with the ACA repeal, and perhaps other action items, but its not as if nothing on their docket had been accomplished.

Their job is to pass laws to get to the other chamber to also pass for the signature or veto of the president. To my knowledge, neither chamber has passed a single bill. Isn't that the very definition of nothing being accomplished?

Executive orders are easy, actually working with congress is the hard part.  Will be fun to watch.
We have had this for the past 6 years. I don't find it fun anymore.
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Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2314 on: February 23, 2017, 08:56:34 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...

But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

It is quite likely the majority of his business is held in partnerships or corporations.  Assuming that is the case and assuming they are pass-through entities, his personal return will have very limited information on his dealings with these entities. 

In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

I personally believe his personal returns show large losses which are embarrassing to Trump the businessman.  Although he has now acknowledged those losses, seeing them brings even more attention.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2315 on: February 23, 2017, 09:00:11 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...
But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2316 on: February 23, 2017, 09:09:37 AM »
There must be something pretty damning in those taxes...
But those aren't even the real reason people want to see to see his taxes.  We already know that US banks stopped lending him money after his third bankruptcy, and that his corporate empire has been financed by foreign (mostly Russian) banks since then.  But his taxes returns would give some indication of exactly how much money he's been given, and thus how much leverage foreign (maybe state-owned) banks have over his personal fortunes.  That's the real reason I think his tax returns will come out eventually, as part of the investigation into Russian influence over the US political system.

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2317 on: February 23, 2017, 09:43:03 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
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NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2318 on: February 23, 2017, 09:47:57 AM »
I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

I don't even care if he gets indicted, just pushing him and his cronies out is good enough.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2319 on: February 23, 2017, 09:54:27 AM »
I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

I don't even care if he gets indicted, just pushing him and his cronies out is good enough.

I thought that too at first... but for some reason I think Pence would be worse.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2320 on: February 23, 2017, 09:56:37 AM »

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.

It's not about liking a politician, it's about judgement. Being deep in debt and who you are in debt has an impact on decision-making. Having loans to cover and tryin to avoid embarrassment have people doing strange things, often risky things.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2321 on: February 23, 2017, 10:13:59 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings.

There have been calls for quite some time now for Trump to release his personal taxes.  My comment was regarding the limited information into his personal taxes.

If tax records are obtained via a subpoena or some legal mechanism, I suspect they would it be broad enough to cover some the of entities he has been involved in.  If entity records are obtained they would certainly shed some light on the situation.  That's a completely different animal, however, from the calls to release his personal taxes.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2322 on: February 23, 2017, 10:14:50 AM »

That's pretty much it, Sol. That would bar any US citizen from passing a background check for security clearance. Why does that guy get to know the secrets?

Same reason Congresscritters do: they were elected.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with this aspect of it. I want my elected people to have the information, even if I don't like them.

It's not about liking a politician, it's about judgement. Being deep in debt and who you are in debt has an impact on decision-making. Having loans to cover and tryin to avoid embarrassment have people doing strange things, often risky things.

Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2323 on: February 23, 2017, 10:35:30 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

Wasn't there a large faction in the FBI that was accused of showing inappropriate favoritism towards Trump with the whole HRC email fiasco? Whatever happened with that anyway? Just a conspiracy theory over the actions of Comey/a few malcontents, or was there substance there?

I've read a few op-eds proposing that the main "dirt" Russia has on Trump are his tax/financial records. This may be assigning a little too much importance to the fragility of Trump's ego, but the lengths to which he has gone to hide that information suggests that he reeeaaally doesn't want us to know it. I wonder if the reveal will live up to the hype.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2324 on: February 23, 2017, 11:15:00 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.
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DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2325 on: February 23, 2017, 12:00:27 PM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.

You may very well be right. And, even if he were indicted or even convicted, I'd say the odds are extremely high that a then-President Pence would pardon him, as unforgivable as that kind of treason*/foreign collusion should be seen. But I'd settle for Trump being removed, indicted, and disgraced.

* As much as I'd like to call it treason, I just read an op-ed this weekend that described the actually narrow definition for treason. Even though working with a hostile foreign power to sway an election in one's favor in exchange for billions in monetary compensation and going easy on said foreign power sounds like treason, technically it isn't. It's only treason if we are in an actual, declared war with the foreign power. But of course that didn't stop all the "Lock Her Up" crowd from calling HRC's use of a private server treason, so that word is thrown around pretty casually these days, it seems.
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2326 on: February 23, 2017, 01:51:51 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2327 on: February 23, 2017, 02:24:08 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2328 on: February 23, 2017, 02:37:12 PM »
Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.
Let me make it clearer:
Quote
Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving or be elected or appointed to that capacity in the first place. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
That's why we're supposed to have this vetting process of cabinet members. That's another reason why candidates release their tax returns. Military and civilian intelligence jobs require you to be able to pass the background check first. If you can't, you don't get the job (secrets). These guys should be able to pass the background check prior to being able to run for office- before being a viable candidate. Otherwise they're more vulnerable to influence.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2329 on: February 23, 2017, 03:00:21 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.

Bwah? Removing people from appointed positions is the same as elected officials for federal office. Per the constitution: "The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Emphasis is mine. So, you can impeach any officer, which basically means any senate confirmable person, including members of the Cabinet. You can't impeach employees of the United States, so I think Chief of Staff and crap like that isn't impeachable.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2330 on: February 23, 2017, 03:12:35 PM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.

You may very well be right. And, even if he were indicted or even convicted, I'd say the odds are extremely high that a then-President Pence would pardon him, as unforgivable as that kind of treason*/foreign collusion should be seen. But I'd settle for Trump being removed, indicted, and disgraced.

* As much as I'd like to call it treason, I just read an op-ed this weekend that described the actually narrow definition for treason. Even though working with a hostile foreign power to sway an election in one's favor in exchange for billions in monetary compensation and going easy on said foreign power sounds like treason, technically it isn't. It's only treason if we are in an actual, declared war with the foreign power. But of course that didn't stop all the "Lock Her Up" crowd from calling HRC's use of a private server treason, so that word is thrown around pretty casually these days, it seems.

Of course any president convicted of fiscal type crimes like this would get pardoned.  Nixon did... The only way you are going to see a president go to jail is probably 1st degree murder or child rape or something so disgusting and damning that everyone wants their head on a pike.

Presidents and higher ups don't go to jail for self enrichment. I am not sure about acts that could be considered treason, but probably not unless it lead to some real tangible harm being done to the US.

I don't personally give a fuck about seeing someone like Trump in jail. I just want to see him fade away from public and not hold any position of power. Like Milo... Every time these assholes open their mouths they make us all dumber and are doing real public harm. They simply need to be marginalized and ignored.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2331 on: February 24, 2017, 06:45:11 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

White House asked the FBI to state that Trump campaign officials did not have regular contacts with Russian intelligence officials before the election (Didn't 45 complain about Bill Clinton meeting with Loretta Lynch???) and FBI declined.  So he has another twitter tirade.  This is embarrassing.  Doesn't he realize that with every revelation/tirade more and more people are saying there must be something there? 

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/320954-trump-fbi-totally-unable-to-stop-leaks

I'm not sure whether to be shocked at this one or not, but a Fox News Poll (5th one down) How would you rate President Trumpís first month in office? shows Poor at 73% and Great at 20%.  Even Texas shows 84% Poor.  Although I'm amused at the secondary connotations at using the word Poor, I'm kind of sad Dumpster Fire wasn't an option.   

http://nation.foxnews.com/poll/index.html


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2332 on: February 24, 2017, 07:49:57 AM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2333 on: February 24, 2017, 08:04:27 AM »

White House asked the FBI to state that Trump campaign officials did not have regular contacts with Russian intelligence officials before the election (Didn't 45 complain about Bill Clinton meeting with Loretta Lynch???) and FBI declined.  So he has another twitter tirade.  This is embarrassing.  Doesn't he realize that with every revelation/tirade more and more people are saying there must be something there? 

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/320954-trump-fbi-totally-unable-to-stop-leaks
And apparently Reince Priebus asking the FBI to make that statement constitutes an interference with a judicial investigation contrary to rules put in place after Nixon to prevent the White House from obstructing or impeding the administration of justice -

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qft97GKiF4
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2334 on: February 24, 2017, 10:57:17 AM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2335 on: February 24, 2017, 12:01:24 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2336 on: February 24, 2017, 12:08:47 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...
Will be an important election, no doubt. If the republicans can pick up a few seats, they can have their suoer majority for two years like the Democrats did in 08. Be interesting to see what gets passed at that point. Not sure that will happen, but my track record for these things is closing in on 90% wrong...
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2337 on: February 24, 2017, 12:24:17 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

I think something involving Russia is there but its probably so complicated that we the public will never know the full accounting of it nor do I really expect him to be prosecuted for it b/c of the bad rep it gives the larger party and party politics are so important to the two main parties. Don't want to hand anything to the Dems like an impeachment.

And I'm likely wrong too.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2338 on: February 24, 2017, 12:39:16 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...

If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2339 on: February 24, 2017, 01:13:47 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

No. The entire point of an offshore account is that the IRS doesn't know about it. Thus, it wouldn't appear on any tax documents.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2340 on: February 24, 2017, 01:19:15 PM »
If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

tl;dr:

1) The much-maligned Cadillac Tax is back in some fashion for employer plans.
2) The new penalty is a 30% premium increase for lapsed coverage. Doesn't seem like much of a penalty (4 months w/o coverage and re-enrolling is better than maintaining insurance all along).
3) Bring back health pools for those with pre-existing conditions. Good idea -- those worked SO well pre-ACA.

#1 won't fly unless they can mask it as a tax cut.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2341 on: February 24, 2017, 01:22:07 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

No. The entire point of an offshore account is that the IRS doesn't know about it. Thus, it wouldn't appear on any tax documents.

It's more likely that some of his cash flow is from/to specific loans, which would raise a RED flag, ifyaknowhatimean.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2342 on: February 24, 2017, 01:45:03 PM »
Realistic impact:  Banning the NYT, Politico and CNN from a presidential press conference.  This seems really bad.  Like something a dictator does.

What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly? 



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2343 on: February 24, 2017, 01:46:01 PM »
White House blocks news organizations from press briefing.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/24/media/cnn-blocked-white-house-gaggle/index.html

Blocking major news organizations that the President does not "like" from news briefings is a direct violation of the US Constitution. Freedom of the press is a major component of a free country. With Bannon's comments yesterday about deconstruction of the government and this event today at the White House, I'm afraid that the very fabric of our country is being torn apart. I am wondering if the news organizations can take this incident and sue the President, not just for breaking constitutional laws, but also for these news organizations losing money due to not being able to cover the briefing. In fact, I wonder if any company or person that Trump slanders on Twitter or during a speech can sue him for defamation and loss of income.



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2344 on: February 24, 2017, 01:54:11 PM »
What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly?

It's a dick move, but I don't think it's unconstitutional.

If he were to shut down CNN, that would be a violation of the 1st Amendment.  Refusing them access to the white house is not the same as shuttering the company or suppressing their reporting.  A judge might disagree with me, though.

The request to the FBI to dispute the (true) stories on CNN is more illegal, in my opinion.

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2345 on: February 24, 2017, 02:29:39 PM »
What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly?

It's a dick move, but I don't think it's unconstitutional.

If he were to shut down CNN, that would be a violation of the 1st Amendment. Refusing them access to the white house is not the same as shuttering the company or suppressing their reporting.  A judge might disagree with me, though.

The request to the FBI to dispute the (true) stories on CNN is more illegal, in my opinion.
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2346 on: February 24, 2017, 02:43:19 PM »
If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

tl;dr:

1) The much-maligned Cadillac Tax is back in some fashion for employer plans.
2) The new penalty is a 30% premium increase for lapsed coverage. Doesn't seem like much of a penalty (4 months w/o coverage and re-enrolling is better than maintaining insurance all along).
3) Bring back health pools for those with pre-existing conditions. Good idea -- those worked SO well pre-ACA.

#1 won't fly unless they can mask it as a tax cut.

They are still trying to figure out what will fly and what won't. It's hilarious how "everybody hates Obamacare" now turns into, "it's hard to get rid of Obamacare because people like so many parts of it."

The 30% penalty is an interesting work around to the hated mandate. The only problem I see there is, it incentives people who've lapsed to keep going without coverage. If they provide a very cheap catastrophic insurance plan to hold people over, might work.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2347 on: February 24, 2017, 03:40:46 PM »
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

The First Lady isn't the most powerful elected official of the free world.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2348 on: February 24, 2017, 06:58:04 PM »
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

The First Lady isn't the most powerful elected official of the free world.
True, but the POTUS is held to many of the same laws. I mostly agree with Sol - while a dick move, it's hardly a violation of anyone's constitutional rights. I would be much more concerned if all reporters were blocked out of press conferences, or if only 1 or 2 specific sources become the only sources of news from the White House. Though this may be the direction we are heading.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2349 on: February 24, 2017, 06:58:23 PM »
So now it seems that States should be able to discriminate against transgendered people as much as they want without federal meddling but potentially can't be trusted with marijuana policy? Nope, no forcing of religious morals happening here.