Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 366852 times)

DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2300 on: February 23, 2017, 12:00:27 PM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.

You may very well be right. And, even if he were indicted or even convicted, I'd say the odds are extremely high that a then-President Pence would pardon him, as unforgivable as that kind of treason*/foreign collusion should be seen. But I'd settle for Trump being removed, indicted, and disgraced.

* As much as I'd like to call it treason, I just read an op-ed this weekend that described the actually narrow definition for treason. Even though working with a hostile foreign power to sway an election in one's favor in exchange for billions in monetary compensation and going easy on said foreign power sounds like treason, technically it isn't. It's only treason if we are in an actual, declared war with the foreign power. But of course that didn't stop all the "Lock Her Up" crowd from calling HRC's use of a private server treason, so that word is thrown around pretty casually these days, it seems.
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2301 on: February 23, 2017, 01:51:51 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2302 on: February 23, 2017, 02:24:08 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2303 on: February 23, 2017, 02:37:12 PM »
Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.
Let me make it clearer:
Quote
Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving or be elected or appointed to that capacity in the first place. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
That's why we're supposed to have this vetting process of cabinet members. That's another reason why candidates release their tax returns. Military and civilian intelligence jobs require you to be able to pass the background check first. If you can't, you don't get the job (secrets). These guys should be able to pass the background check prior to being able to run for office- before being a viable candidate. Otherwise they're more vulnerable to influence.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2304 on: February 23, 2017, 03:00:21 PM »
Absolutely, I was making a more general point about elected officials. Basically, even if I don't like/trust someone in office, I still want them to know the secrets because they were elected, and represent their constituents (theoretically).

Theoretically, conflicts of interest like that should be the test. If failed they shouldn't be serving in that capacity. It happens in the military and intelligence communities so I don't understand why it should be different for public servants, elected or not.
While I see your point, there is a difference: there are procedures for removing elected officials. Removing people from appointed positions can be more problematic, especially if their interest conflicts benefit those appointing them.

Bwah? Removing people from appointed positions is the same as elected officials for federal office. Per the constitution: "The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Emphasis is mine. So, you can impeach any officer, which basically means any senate confirmable person, including members of the Cabinet. You can't impeach employees of the United States, so I think Chief of Staff and crap like that isn't impeachable.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2305 on: February 23, 2017, 03:12:35 PM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?
I doubt that there will be clear enough evidence to indict him. The best I would hope for is that there is enough dirt that the republicans decide to remove him from office, settling for another Republican at the helm. I can't really imagine this would be hard to figure out, eother ; how hard is it to call up the IRS and say "Does Trump take money from Russia? Ok, how much? Thanks." I mean, the Irs should know, he must be audited regulalrly with the size and complexity of his income.

You may very well be right. And, even if he were indicted or even convicted, I'd say the odds are extremely high that a then-President Pence would pardon him, as unforgivable as that kind of treason*/foreign collusion should be seen. But I'd settle for Trump being removed, indicted, and disgraced.

* As much as I'd like to call it treason, I just read an op-ed this weekend that described the actually narrow definition for treason. Even though working with a hostile foreign power to sway an election in one's favor in exchange for billions in monetary compensation and going easy on said foreign power sounds like treason, technically it isn't. It's only treason if we are in an actual, declared war with the foreign power. But of course that didn't stop all the "Lock Her Up" crowd from calling HRC's use of a private server treason, so that word is thrown around pretty casually these days, it seems.

Of course any president convicted of fiscal type crimes like this would get pardoned.  Nixon did... The only way you are going to see a president go to jail is probably 1st degree murder or child rape or something so disgusting and damning that everyone wants their head on a pike.

Presidents and higher ups don't go to jail for self enrichment. I am not sure about acts that could be considered treason, but probably not unless it lead to some real tangible harm being done to the US.

I don't personally give a fuck about seeing someone like Trump in jail. I just want to see him fade away from public and not hold any position of power. Like Milo... Every time these assholes open their mouths they make us all dumber and are doing real public harm. They simply need to be marginalized and ignored.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2306 on: February 24, 2017, 06:45:11 AM »
In order to truly understand the dealings you mention, you would need access to the tax returns and/or financial statements of the entities involved.  Has any president or candidate ever released records from those entities?  I realize there would be calls for him to release that next, but I'm not aware of a precedent for a release like that. 

Looks like the Senate is already floating the possibility of issuing a subpoena for his tax records in the Russia probe:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/susan-collins-subpoena-of-trump-tax-records-possible-in-russia-probe/ar-AAneDJ9?li=BBnbcA1

I'd be extremely surprised if there is not already a large scale FBI investigation underway into Trump's dealings. We already know his inner circle including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn are under FBI investigation, and I imagine it is fairly broad and looking into the allegations of the "dossier" as well. I expect criminal indictments will eventually come out. My only question is to what extent will they be able to get Trump's (figurative) fingerprints in the whole affair? Will they be able to prove enough to indict Trump himself (assuming the smoke actually leads to fire)?

White House asked the FBI to state that Trump campaign officials did not have regular contacts with Russian intelligence officials before the election (Didn't 45 complain about Bill Clinton meeting with Loretta Lynch???) and FBI declined.  So he has another twitter tirade.  This is embarrassing.  Doesn't he realize that with every revelation/tirade more and more people are saying there must be something there? 

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/320954-trump-fbi-totally-unable-to-stop-leaks

I'm not sure whether to be shocked at this one or not, but a Fox News Poll (5th one down) How would you rate President Trumpís first month in office? shows Poor at 73% and Great at 20%.  Even Texas shows 84% Poor.  Although I'm amused at the secondary connotations at using the word Poor, I'm kind of sad Dumpster Fire wasn't an option.   

http://nation.foxnews.com/poll/index.html


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2307 on: February 24, 2017, 07:49:57 AM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2308 on: February 24, 2017, 08:04:27 AM »

White House asked the FBI to state that Trump campaign officials did not have regular contacts with Russian intelligence officials before the election (Didn't 45 complain about Bill Clinton meeting with Loretta Lynch???) and FBI declined.  So he has another twitter tirade.  This is embarrassing.  Doesn't he realize that with every revelation/tirade more and more people are saying there must be something there? 

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/fbi/320954-trump-fbi-totally-unable-to-stop-leaks
And apparently Reince Priebus asking the FBI to make that statement constitutes an interference with a judicial investigation contrary to rules put in place after Nixon to prevent the White House from obstructing or impeding the administration of justice -

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Qft97GKiF4
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2309 on: February 24, 2017, 10:57:17 AM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2310 on: February 24, 2017, 12:01:24 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2311 on: February 24, 2017, 12:08:47 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...
Will be an important election, no doubt. If the republicans can pick up a few seats, they can have their suoer majority for two years like the Democrats did in 08. Be interesting to see what gets passed at that point. Not sure that will happen, but my track record for these things is closing in on 90% wrong...
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2312 on: February 24, 2017, 12:24:17 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

I think something involving Russia is there but its probably so complicated that we the public will never know the full accounting of it nor do I really expect him to be prosecuted for it b/c of the bad rep it gives the larger party and party politics are so important to the two main parties. Don't want to hand anything to the Dems like an impeachment.

And I'm likely wrong too.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2313 on: February 24, 2017, 12:39:16 PM »
If the Republicans continue to flounder and we see a reining in of the safety net (millions lose health insurance), then expect the mid-term elections to favor Democrats or at least be neutral
The republicans are in control; historically this has lead to the midterms flopping congressinal seats to the party out of power.  This would not be new; what will be interesting is if the republicans take a shellacking as bad as the democrats did in 2010.

I was hearing that due to the seats up for re-election, midterms are going to be very,very difficult for Democrats.  However, who knows...

If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2314 on: February 24, 2017, 01:13:47 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

No. The entire point of an offshore account is that the IRS doesn't know about it. Thus, it wouldn't appear on any tax documents.
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2315 on: February 24, 2017, 01:19:15 PM »
If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

tl;dr:

1) The much-maligned Cadillac Tax is back in some fashion for employer plans.
2) The new penalty is a 30% premium increase for lapsed coverage. Doesn't seem like much of a penalty (4 months w/o coverage and re-enrolling is better than maintaining insurance all along).
3) Bring back health pools for those with pre-existing conditions. Good idea -- those worked SO well pre-ACA.

#1 won't fly unless they can mask it as a tax cut.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2316 on: February 24, 2017, 01:22:07 PM »
Back to his taxes: would that reveal offshore accounts that Russia could be padding? And it wouldn't reveal any deals that benefited his children and thus him by extension.

No. The entire point of an offshore account is that the IRS doesn't know about it. Thus, it wouldn't appear on any tax documents.

It's more likely that some of his cash flow is from/to specific loans, which would raise a RED flag, ifyaknowhatimean.

golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2317 on: February 24, 2017, 01:45:03 PM »
Realistic impact:  Banning the NYT, Politico and CNN from a presidential press conference.  This seems really bad.  Like something a dictator does.

What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly? 



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2318 on: February 24, 2017, 01:46:01 PM »
White House blocks news organizations from press briefing.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/24/media/cnn-blocked-white-house-gaggle/index.html

Blocking major news organizations that the President does not "like" from news briefings is a direct violation of the US Constitution. Freedom of the press is a major component of a free country. With Bannon's comments yesterday about deconstruction of the government and this event today at the White House, I'm afraid that the very fabric of our country is being torn apart. I am wondering if the news organizations can take this incident and sue the President, not just for breaking constitutional laws, but also for these news organizations losing money due to not being able to cover the briefing. In fact, I wonder if any company or person that Trump slanders on Twitter or during a speech can sue him for defamation and loss of income.



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2319 on: February 24, 2017, 01:54:11 PM »
What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly?

It's a dick move, but I don't think it's unconstitutional.

If he were to shut down CNN, that would be a violation of the 1st Amendment.  Refusing them access to the white house is not the same as shuttering the company or suppressing their reporting.  A judge might disagree with me, though.

The request to the FBI to dispute the (true) stories on CNN is more illegal, in my opinion.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2320 on: February 24, 2017, 02:29:39 PM »
What do you do when the president violates the first amendment so flagrantly?

It's a dick move, but I don't think it's unconstitutional.

If he were to shut down CNN, that would be a violation of the 1st Amendment. Refusing them access to the white house is not the same as shuttering the company or suppressing their reporting.  A judge might disagree with me, though.

The request to the FBI to dispute the (true) stories on CNN is more illegal, in my opinion.
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2321 on: February 24, 2017, 02:43:19 PM »
If the GOP implements what is in this article, I'd be surprised if there was not a shellacking. 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/house-republicans-obamacare-repeal-package-235343

tl;dr:

1) The much-maligned Cadillac Tax is back in some fashion for employer plans.
2) The new penalty is a 30% premium increase for lapsed coverage. Doesn't seem like much of a penalty (4 months w/o coverage and re-enrolling is better than maintaining insurance all along).
3) Bring back health pools for those with pre-existing conditions. Good idea -- those worked SO well pre-ACA.

#1 won't fly unless they can mask it as a tax cut.

They are still trying to figure out what will fly and what won't. It's hilarious how "everybody hates Obamacare" now turns into, "it's hard to get rid of Obamacare because people like so many parts of it."

The 30% penalty is an interesting work around to the hated mandate. The only problem I see there is, it incentives people who've lapsed to keep going without coverage. If they provide a very cheap catastrophic insurance plan to hold people over, might work.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2322 on: February 24, 2017, 03:40:46 PM »
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

The First Lady isn't the most powerful elected official of the free world.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2323 on: February 24, 2017, 06:58:04 PM »
I doubt it.  One of the first Ladies used to only allow female reporters in to report on her and no one saw a problem with that.

The First Lady isn't the most powerful elected official of the free world.
True, but the POTUS is held to many of the same laws. I mostly agree with Sol - while a dick move, it's hardly a violation of anyone's constitutional rights. I would be much more concerned if all reporters were blocked out of press conferences, or if only 1 or 2 specific sources become the only sources of news from the White House. Though this may be the direction we are heading.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2324 on: February 24, 2017, 06:58:23 PM »
So now it seems that States should be able to discriminate against transgendered people as much as they want without federal meddling but potentially can't be trusted with marijuana policy? Nope, no forcing of religious morals happening here.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2325 on: February 24, 2017, 07:29:59 PM »
Whatever happens or does not happen it's now Trumpcare. Please use the correct terminology. ;)

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2326 on: February 24, 2017, 07:50:54 PM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2327 on: February 24, 2017, 10:20:51 PM »
So now it seems that States should be able to discriminate against transgendered people as much as they want without federal meddling but potentially can't be trusted with marijuana policy? Nope, no forcing of religious morals happening here.

No surprise there. Trump didn't seem to care but Pence thinks that Reefer Madness is a documentary.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2328 on: February 24, 2017, 10:23:27 PM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2329 on: February 24, 2017, 11:43:43 PM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.
That seems to be Trump's strategy - wrap himself tighter in the US Flag whenever given 'questioning' feedback to his Orders.  It's not necessarily like the branches of government don't like the idea of protecting the country from terrorists or silencing misinformation (or riding on the coat-tails of a popular charismatic President), they just don't understand how he can possibly stand for blatant religious profiling and silencing journalists (while being much less popular than he believes).

As history has shown, GW Bush wasn't impeached or curtailed in any way although no weapons of mass destruction were found, so I'm less surprised now, ever though we are struggling through historical downfall, that there is little imposition on Trump's overreach.  If we truly were a nation of high moral standing, this would have been enough a week ago.  Alas, we are apparently a nation of putting ourselves first, and Trump is riding that trope as long as it will have him.  So far this stance has been nothing but beneficial.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see if season 2 (well, only month 2 in this case) is any better than season 1 :)
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2330 on: February 25, 2017, 12:00:46 AM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.
That seems to be Trump's strategy - wrap himself tighter in the US Flag whenever given 'questioning' feedback to his Orders.  It's not necessarily like the branches of government don't like the idea of protecting the country from terrorists or silencing misinformation (or riding on the coat-tails of a popular charismatic President), they just don't understand how he can possibly stand for blatant religious profiling and silencing journalists (while being much less popular than he believes).

As history has shown, GW Bush wasn't impeached or curtailed in any way although no weapons of mass destruction were found, so I'm less surprised now, ever though we are struggling through historical downfall, that there is little imposition on Trump's overreach.  If we truly were a nation of high moral standing, this would have been enough a week ago.  Alas, we are apparently a nation of putting ourselves first, and Trump is riding that trope as long as it will have him.  So far this stance has been nothing but beneficial.  I guess we'll just have to wait and see if season 2 (well, only month 2 in this case) is any better than season 1 :)
I guess I still have faith in our checks and balances. The courts slapped Obama's hands repeatedly when he overstepped. They have done the same to Trump. It's not perfect, but it's not as if everyone is running around unchecked completely.
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EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2331 on: February 25, 2017, 12:19:45 AM »
I guess I still have faith in our checks and balances. The courts slapped Obama's hands repeatedly when he overstepped. They have done the same to Trump. It's not perfect, but it's not as if everyone is running around unchecked completely.

As soon as I hear anything like 'Obama was x' or 'Hillary' whatever nonsensical fictional distraction at this point, I feel pretty vindicated that I made a stronger, more logical argument.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2332 on: February 25, 2017, 12:23:35 AM »
I guess I still have faith in our checks and balances. The courts slapped Obama's hands repeatedly when he overstepped. They have done the same to Trump. It's not perfect, but it's not as if everyone is running around unchecked completely.

As soon as I hear anything like 'Obama was x' or 'Hillary' whatever nonsensical fictional distraction at this point, I feel pretty vindicated that I made a stronger, more logical argument.
Your argument was predicated upon "Bush did X"....
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2333 on: February 25, 2017, 07:29:58 AM »
I guess I still have faith in our checks and balances. The courts slapped Obama's hands repeatedly when he overstepped. They have done the same to Trump. It's not perfect, but it's not as if everyone is running around unchecked completely.

As soon as I hear anything like 'Obama was x' or 'Hillary' whatever nonsensical fictional distraction at this point, I feel pretty vindicated that I made a stronger, more logical argument.
Your argument was predicated upon "Bush did X"....
Are you totally tone def to my point?  I guess, to spell it out, Bush invading Iraq is common knowledge.  This whole 'but Obama got his hands slapped by the courts so he's just as bad as Trump' is opinion, and not really pertinent to the discussion.  It's a fun game Trump supporters like to play.  Sometimes they play it well like, 'Obama also stopped refugees from coming to the US (which required a little bit of research to understand why they were comparing apples to oranges).  But it's gotten worn out, since Trump became President and is now demonstrably incompetent and damaging.  He has certainly not shown a respect for the checks and balances imposed on his branch of government.  So let's focus on today for a while and not some selective memory of the past, since talking about Obama being just as bad as Trump has repeatedly proven to be 'alternative facts'.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 07:34:08 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
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Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2334 on: February 25, 2017, 07:50:13 AM »
Whatever happens or does not happen it's now Trumpcare. Please use the correct terminology. ;)

Come on over to BreitWhitebart and post:

Still waiting for repeal of Obamacare.  When we getting Trumpcare?

Let's educate the Trumpeteers!
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 07:54:47 AM by Working Mama »

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2335 on: February 25, 2017, 07:57:27 AM »
Some news outlets are posting that the deportation of illegals is going to have a large negative impact on our economy, however the numbers are over ten years.

Does anyone understand how it will play out in the short term, say the next year or two?


accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2336 on: February 25, 2017, 09:15:27 AM »
Does anyone understand how it will play out in the short term, say the next year or two?

Well, if they successfully deport that many illegals, some farmers are saying their crops will rot in the fields. Some farmers are buying equipment for automation.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/01/05/trumps-deportation-vow-spurs-california-farmers-into-action.html
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/02/california-farmers-surprised-trump-anti-immigrant
The construction and restaurant industries will have problems too. Prices will go up- they will have to pay an actual wage for the work if Americans will need to do the work.

Oh the irony of farmers voting for Trump thinking that his positions were just talk, now concerned that he's actually going to deport illegals.

But don't worry-
Quote
Iím confident that he can grasp the magnitude and the anxiety of whatís happening now
Trump's a business man who will understand the problem. I can't even say that with a straight face.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2337 on: February 25, 2017, 09:25:46 AM »
Border patrol can set up stop points within 100 miles of the border and ask about your citizenship.  They can ask but no one has an obligation to answer.  They are hoping people are ignorant of their rights.  I am wondering how they will catch the millions of people they want to deport.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2338 on: February 25, 2017, 09:34:46 AM »
I am wondering how they will catch the millions of people they want to deport.

Easy- you round up enough Mexican looking people and some of them are bound to be illegals.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2339 on: February 25, 2017, 09:51:34 AM »
*If* mass deportation happened, there are some obvious effects:
-Construction costs increase dramatically almost everywhere in the US.
-Housing values/rents at the low end collapse in many areas as lots of people move out.
-Food prices rise dramatically, especially for prepared foods.
-Lots of domestically grown produce (and some meat like chicken that requires manual processing) becomes extremely expensive/uncompetitive with Mexican/Central American/Chilean imports.
-Jobs at the very low end pay a lot more, prices for services like housekeeping, landscaping, etc rise dramatically.

I guess the obvious immediate effect would be a lot of inflation (for basic goods and services), combined with total collapse of housing markets (both purchase and rental prices) at the low end in some places. The obvious winners would be low-skill unemployed people who can keep their act together enough to hold down a job/work hard - they'd make more money and also have cheaper housing available. Everyone else probably loses in one way or another.

-W
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 09:55:59 AM by waltworks »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2340 on: February 25, 2017, 10:07:51 AM »
The obvious winners would be low-skill unemployed people who can keep their act together enough to hold down a job/work hard - they'd make more money and also have cheaper housing available. Everyone else probably loses in one way or another.

This is exactly why I don't think it will happen.  Republicans won't pass anything that doesn't disproportionately help rich people.

All of Trump's rhetoric about saving jobs is just smokescreen designed to scoop up working class votes.  He doesn't actually care about working class people. He's a billionaire lifestyle brand business mogul, he couldn't care less about poor people.  He has spent his entire career stealing from workers, not helping them.

The administration's focus on immigration is just a distraction from tax cuts for the wealthy and taking away health insurance.  Watch carefully what bills actually get passed, despite all of the noise.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2341 on: February 25, 2017, 11:29:16 AM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.

Yes, compare: "I arrested these people for yelling 'trump sucks'" vs. "I arrested these people for yelling 'fire' in a crowded building"

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2342 on: February 25, 2017, 11:50:18 AM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.

Yes, compare: "I arrested these people for yelling 'trump sucks'" vs. "I arrested these people for yelling 'fire' in a crowded building"
But those are separate actions. I see your point, but that distinction in intent in your example is on the person committing the action, not on the person denying them their right.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2343 on: February 25, 2017, 12:00:13 PM »
Are you totally tone def to my point?  I guess, to spell it out, Bush invading Iraq is common knowledge.  This whole 'but Obama got his hands slapped by the courts so he's just as bad as Trump' is opinion, and not really pertinent to the discussion.  It's a fun game Trump supporters like to play.  Sometimes they play it well like, 'Obama also stopped refugees from coming to the US (which required a little bit of research to understand why they were comparing apples to oranges).  But it's gotten worn out, since Trump became President and is now demonstrably incompetent and damaging.  He has certainly not shown a respect for the checks and balances imposed on his branch of government.  So let's focus on today for a while and not some selective memory of the past, since talking about Obama being just as bad as Trump has repeatedly proven to be 'alternative facts'.
I guess I am deaf to your point . Perhaps you could be more clear? I have no idea why Bush was brought into the discussion; it was a throwaway that partisan attackers without a balanced view will use. The system of checks and balances that will curtail Trumps oversteps is the same system that curtailed Obama's oversteps. This is common knowledge. Checks and balances demonstrably works in our government. This was my point- it has worked in previous administrations who have attempted to side step the other branches of government, and as this is a recent example, I  see no argument this will change. In fact, it has already worked against the current administration.

I am clearly not a Trump supporter. I have never said Obama was worse than Trump. They are both terrible presidents, overall, for similar reasons, and differing reasons.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2344 on: February 25, 2017, 01:05:12 PM »
*If* mass deportation happened, there are some obvious effects:
-Construction costs increase dramatically almost everywhere in the US.
-Housing values/rents at the low end collapse in many areas as lots of people move out.
-Food prices rise dramatically, especially for prepared foods.
-Lots of domestically grown produce (and some meat like chicken that requires manual processing) becomes extremely expensive/uncompetitive with Mexican/Central American/Chilean imports.
-Jobs at the very low end pay a lot more, prices for services like housekeeping, landscaping, etc rise dramatically.

I guess the obvious immediate effect would be a lot of inflation (for basic goods and services), combined with total collapse of housing markets (both purchase and rental prices) at the low end in some places. The obvious winners would be low-skill unemployed people who can keep their act together enough to hold down a job/work hard - they'd make more money and also have cheaper housing available. Everyone else probably loses in one way or another.

-W

I think this is what they want. President Bannon wants to destroy the state. He said that, and he's working to do it.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2345 on: February 25, 2017, 01:19:36 PM »
The obvious winners would be low-skill unemployed people who can keep their act together enough to hold down a job/work hard - they'd make more money and also have cheaper housing available. Everyone else probably loses in one way or another.

This is exactly why I don't think it will happen.  Republicans won't pass anything that doesn't disproportionately help rich people.

All of Trump's rhetoric about saving jobs is just smokescreen designed to scoop up working class votes.  He doesn't actually care about working class people. He's a billionaire lifestyle brand business mogul, he couldn't care less about poor people.  He has spent his entire career stealing from workers, not helping them.

The administration's focus on immigration is just a distraction from tax cuts for the wealthy and taking away health insurance.  Watch carefully what bills actually get passed, despite all of the noise.
I would personally support everyone paying more for everything if it meant the poorest people get a raise. I don't see rich people losing as a terribly bad thing, if it helps lower income people make more money. Also, as the raise the minimum wage studies show, I am not sure this would be the case anyway.

I don't see the democrats agreeing to such a plan because it would cut the profits of many of their corporate interests would not accept the cut in profits it would take to pay workers more. While both sides are paying lip service to the idea, neither actually wants it.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2017, 01:24:54 PM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2346 on: February 25, 2017, 03:03:42 PM »
I don't see the democrats agreeing to such a plan because it would cut the profits of many of their corporate interests would not accept the cut in profits it would take to pay workers more.

What an illogical statement. It's Republicans and not the Democrats who try to protect corporate profits regardless of who is harmed in the process. You have it exactly backwards.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2347 on: February 25, 2017, 03:44:55 PM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.

Yes, compare: "I arrested these people for yelling 'trump sucks'" vs. "I arrested these people for yelling 'fire' in a crowded building"
But those are separate actions. I see your point, but that distinction in intent in your example is on the person committing the action, not on the person denying them their right.

No, the difference in constitutionality between those two examples is whether there was a compelling state interest in violating their rights. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2348 on: February 25, 2017, 04:14:38 PM »
I don't see the democrats agreeing to such a plan because it would cut the profits of many of their corporate interests would not accept the cut in profits it would take to pay workers more.

What an illogical statement. It's Republicans and not the Democrats who try to protect corporate profits regardless of who is harmed in the process. You have it exactly backwards.
I think this was covered in the ACA thread; the reason we don't have single payer is that Democrats are beholden to their corporate interests, who would not wish to see their profits drop. It was not because the ACA was a better plan than single payer for the American people.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2349 on: February 25, 2017, 04:17:33 PM »
I think there's a much better case for unconstitutionality because, as usual, the trump administration is not particularly discreet about showing that it's a retributive act.
Does intent matter for denying constitutional rights? "I really thought it would be better for the country if these people didn't vote." Is not a defense to deny people their constitutional right to vote, for instance.

Yes, compare: "I arrested these people for yelling 'trump sucks'" vs. "I arrested these people for yelling 'fire' in a crowded building"
But those are separate actions. I see your point, but that distinction in intent in your example is on the person committing the action, not on the person denying them their right.

No, the difference in constitutionality between those two examples is whether there was a compelling state interest in violating their rights.
Whereas a retrubitive act, as mentioned above, does not show compelling state interest. I now understand your arguement. Thank you for clarifying.
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