Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 180533 times)

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2250 on: February 19, 2017, 08:40:39 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2251 on: February 19, 2017, 09:08:40 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2252 on: February 19, 2017, 09:28:49 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 

Does a bear shit in the woods?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2253 on: February 19, 2017, 09:55:38 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.
If there is one thing politicians have gotten away with over the last decade and a half, it's justifying deficit spending.
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sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2254 on: February 19, 2017, 11:58:49 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

I'm not sure he offers much in the way of solutions, but it's a perspective that certainly does explain a lot of different things in recent cultural history, all tied together neatly in a way that probably makes a lot of sense to you, if you (like me) spend too much time on the internet.

There's a little diversion toward the end about feminism.  These basement-dwelling self-proclaimed losers feel trapped, because they don't fit into the 1950s style ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a family and stability) or the 1960s/70s ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a playboy pad and lots of sex) or even the counterculture Dharma bum ideal of masculinity (you don't need wealth to be happy and have lots of sex).  They have completely failed with women IRL, and so now must blame women as the source of their problems.  This is why they attack "social justice warriors" and other perceived proponents of liberalism, which has attempted to deconstruct the ideal of masculinity and offer people validity regardless of their gender-binary choices.  Except to the pepe-the-frog crowd, this is just telling them that their problems don't exist.  They're so trapped in their own gender-norms that they can't see a way out, and now lash out blindly at everything including the very movements that are trying to help them (e.g Bernie Sanders).

There are a few other interesting ideas in that article, for anyone who wants to dig into them.  I'm still thinking about the proposed transition away from left/right politics to insider/outsider politics, which the alt-right seems to be winning right now.

former player

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2255 on: February 19, 2017, 12:22:08 PM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

We are all combing through the newspapers trying to understand what happened in Sweden on Friday. So far, the best theories are:
-He misheard Sehwan (in Pakistan) for Sweden. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-sehwan-attack-dead-islamic-state-injured-in-terrorist-attack-shrine-4529321/
-He heard about the moose raping a wooden statue, and thought it was a muslim that did it (photo #6): http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Vn17J/in-english-this-happened-in-sweden-friday-night-mr-president
One thing I love about this story is that the Swedish government circulates its Twitter account @Sweden around its citizens, so a Swedish school librarian was on twitter duty when the story broke and was able to reassure the world that the biggest thing happening in Sweden on Friday was selecting their song for Eurovision -  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39020962

Swedes 1 Turnip 0.
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2256 on: February 19, 2017, 01:46:16 PM »
That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

Is the entire living-in-a-basement meme also a troll, though? I've worked with 4chan regulars in IT. Some do it for the lulz and some are full-on anime-loving, libertarian, angry young men, but one thing they aren't is losers, at least in the traditional sense. They have good salaries and nice cars and, like any good Millennial, eat out for every meal with their friends. They do feel the entire system is rigged, however.

The article feels a bit simplistic.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2257 on: February 19, 2017, 02:58:55 PM »
That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

Is the entire living-in-a-basement meme also a troll, though? I've worked with 4chan regulars in IT. Some do it for the lulz and some are full-on anime-loving, libertarian, angry young men, but one thing they aren't is losers, at least in the traditional sense. They have good salaries and nice cars and, like any good Millennial, eat out for every meal with their friends. They do feel the entire system is rigged, however.

The article feels a bit simplistic.

The article made it seem to me like a cloche with a heavy kernel of truth.

Being a loser is in some cases a state of mind... or a sort of propison, as the author suggests.

I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2258 on: February 19, 2017, 03:05:04 PM »
I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.

And if so, why? 

We're talking about a big group of people here, so it's likely there are some people who live on 4chan who genuinely love Trump's racism and bigotry and who fly the confederate flag proudly because they like to frighten and intimidate black people.  And some people who have genuinely bought Trump's lie that he will bring blue collar manufacturing jobs back to America.  And some who, like this article suggests, recognize that he is a fraud and a liar and a turnip, and think that's really funny because like them he is always actively trying to piss people off "for the lulz."

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2259 on: February 19, 2017, 03:33:57 PM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

Reminds me of a post I read, was a fascinating read a few weeks before the election:

https://pepethefrogfaith.wordpress.com

Found this off of Ran Prieur's website, that guy posts some off the wall stuff.

So many theories on the how and who of Trump's election. With regards to the 4-chan guys, I have a hard time envisioning this group of people going through the effort to actually vote for Trump. It simply doesn't provide the instant satisfaction that posting memes or communal reinforcement that the majority of their posts entail (SJW hate, etc.) Could be totally off here, I haven't visited in a while....


Burghardt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2260 on: February 19, 2017, 04:03:46 PM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

Reminds me of a post I read, was a fascinating read a few weeks before the election:

https://pepethefrogfaith.wordpress.com

Found this off of Ran Prieur's website, that guy posts some off the wall stuff.

So many theories on the how and who of Trump's election. With regards to the 4-chan guys, I have a hard time envisioning this group of people going through the effort to actually vote for Trump. It simply doesn't provide the instant satisfaction that posting memes or communal reinforcement that the majority of their posts entail (SJW hate, etc.) Could be totally off here, I haven't visited in a while....
The anonymous system omits just how many people actually frequent the site.
There are the ascribed regulars who spend all day on the site, yes, but the vast majority is living a perfectly normal life.
Some of the trolls go out into the open, too - but obviously this goes against the entire point of anonymity http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/074/700/27e.jpg
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 04:05:32 PM by Burghardt »

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2261 on: February 19, 2017, 04:10:09 PM »
I think it would be quite interesting if you were to ask your 4chan regular friends whether they support Trump.

And if so, why? 

We're talking about a big group of people here, so it's likely there are some people who live on 4chan who genuinely love Trump's racism and bigotry and who fly the confederate flag proudly because they like to frighten and intimidate black people.  And some people who have genuinely bought Trump's lie that he will bring blue collar manufacturing jobs back to America.  And some who, like this article suggests, recognize that he is a fraud and a liar and a turnip, and think that's really funny because like them he is always actively trying to piss people off "for the lulz."

Yes, exactly.

Because Bacchi is perplexed since he sees his 4chan friends as being successful. And I'm wondering if they are just as prey to the persecution myth the article seems to point out.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2262 on: February 19, 2017, 04:28:28 PM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.
I found this article to be a good summary of the hurdles Republicans face for passing either non-expiring tax reform or a 10 year cut while avoiding a Democratic filibuster.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2263 on: February 19, 2017, 09:11:56 PM »
I found this article to be a good summary of the hurdles Republicans face for passing either non-expiring tax reform or a 10 year cut while avoiding a Democratic filibuster.

Short version for people who can't be bothered to read:  Republicans desperately want to cut taxes on the rich, and are struggling to find a way to make those tax cuts permanent.

The argument is basically that the Republican party doesn't care about any of its constituents except the one percenters, and has been actively trying to screw over the 99% since Bill Clinton.  When they last had full control of government they passed massive tax cuts for the rich that avoided the filibuster by expiring after 10 years (since the procedural rules allow you to bypass the filibuster for rules that don't increase deficits beyond 10 years out). 

Republicans thought Clinton's tax rate hikes on the rich wouldn't generate any net revenue (they did, Clinton left a huge budget surplus) and they thought that Bush's tax cuts wouldn't lose revenue (they did, Bush crashed the budget after Clinton) and now they're doubling down by suggesting that Trump's tax cuts for the rich will not only not lose revenue, but will actually stimulate revenue by spurring economic growth.  So far, this near religious-like belief in the stimulative effect of tax cuts has never played but they're just SURE it will work this time.

Then there's an added detail about how the repeal of Obamacare fits into this, because Paul Ryan wants to take the 1.2 trillion dollars that Obamacare taxes would gather over the next decade, and instead of spending it on Obamacare they're just going to repeal the ACA and then give that money to rich people as a tax cut.  This allows them to utilize the "doesn't increase deficits" rule that allows them to bypass the filibuster, because the net effect on the budget is zero if you just divert that 1.2 trillion from one cost (Obamacare) to another cost (tax cuts for the rich).  The rule doesn't care how many people get healthcare, it only cares about total government revenues.  This is apparently why they HAVE to repeal Obamacare before they can pass their fantasy tax reform package.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 09:31:33 PM by sol »

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2264 on: February 19, 2017, 09:22:13 PM »
Because Bacchi is perplexed since he sees his 4chan friends as being successful. And I'm wondering if they are just as prey to the persecution myth the article seems to point out.

I think they can fall prey to the same persecution complex. One co-worker, in particular, is angry about student loans and the federal reserve (did I mentioned that he was a libertarian?) and "the establishment." Ok, not surprising -- I agree that The Man* needs to be taken down a notch too. But he's willing to throw a firebomb into the theater to stop the play instead of, you know, getting a different play scheduled.

So, yeah, he's a Trump supporter. He doesn't like Trump, particularly, but Trump "will shake things up." I don't know my coworker enough to know why, exactly, he feels it's bad enough to elect someone like Trump.




*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2265 on: February 19, 2017, 10:27:34 PM »
^I read an article yesterday where an official was discussing one of the reasons the EPA faces criticism-it has worked so well, too well in fact, that people take it for granted that "everything is fine" and don't stop and consider why before deeming the agency unnecessary. Sure the FDA, EPA, and other regulatory agencies put forth rules that can feel onerous, but in the grand scheme of things most regulations have a reason for being. I don't want to go back to a time where my air, water, food, and medicine could be poisonous.

To bring my point to your post-our present situation is a direct result of "the system" working as well as it has. Your friend no doubt probably has any or all of these luxuries:

New Car
Smart phone
Internet
Endless entertainment (cable, etc.)
Easy ass job

I fail to see how "the system" is failing. What I see is a whole lot of irresponsible choices made and people needing to blame an external force for personal mistakes.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2266 on: February 20, 2017, 06:45:34 AM »
^ for those that are pining for the 1950s/60s/70s, I doubt they would be content with earning less, sharing a car and living in a much smaller home.
We've lost all perspective - people have become so jealous over the gains of the 1% that they've completely ignored the more modest gains for all the rest.
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Burghardt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2267 on: February 20, 2017, 07:56:57 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 07:58:34 AM by Burghardt »

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2268 on: February 20, 2017, 08:03:32 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".


Source?
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2269 on: February 20, 2017, 08:23:24 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".


Source?

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.

DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2270 on: February 20, 2017, 08:44:54 AM »
they thought that Bush's tax cuts wouldn't lose revenue (they did, Bush crashed the budget after Clinton) and now they're doubling down by suggesting that Trump's tax cuts for the rich will not only not lose revenue, but will actually stimulate revenue by spurring economic growth.  So far, this near religious-like belief in the stimulative effect of tax cuts has never played but they're just SURE it will work this time.

Didn't you hear? Those people who will get tax cuts aren't the "rich", they're the "job creators" LOL.
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Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2271 on: February 20, 2017, 11:19:23 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

The thoughtful comments are making my head spin - all good.

A question about making money off of Trump's policies:

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  They pick a lot of the food in this part of the country.

I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell produce.  What do you all think?
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 11:22:35 AM by Working Mama »

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2272 on: February 20, 2017, 11:21:15 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.   

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2273 on: February 20, 2017, 11:25:23 AM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.

Construction costs will go up, too, which will increase existing housing prices, which will increase rents. It's a good time to be a landlord.

This would affect Trump and his hotels but he just stiffs his subs when he declares bankruptcy.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2274 on: February 20, 2017, 11:29:45 AM »
Guest worker program incoming.

I could picture the republicans passing a program for *legal* guest workers from Mexico/other places that aren't bound by the minimum wage. I think everyone would support having this nice underclass to continue to exploit, even the anti-immigrant zealots.

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2275 on: February 20, 2017, 11:48:59 AM »
RE: California's economy
That would really suck, since we know Trump has it out for California.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2017, 11:52:54 AM by Working Mama »

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2276 on: February 20, 2017, 11:51:07 AM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2277 on: February 20, 2017, 12:01:10 PM »
This thread is fascinating.

the thoughtful comments are making my head spin.  A question about making money off of Trump's policies.

Since immigrants are being deported and they are coming in lower numbers... will food prices go up a lot?  I can plant a victory garden to save money and maybe sell stuff.  What do you all think?
Yes, they will.  It could crash California's economy which on top of doubling or tripling food prices will cause a crash on stock market.  I'd definitely plant a victory garden if you could.

If recent history is any guide, when farm labor is in short supply food prices go up. Both California and Florida depend heavily on migrant labor for food production, and this could have an interesting effect in the months to come.

It's very hard to make money from your own garden given how efficient large-scale ag is.  however, there are other benefits which make home-gardening definitely worth it (fresher produce, fewer/no chemicals, different options than the grocery, because it can be fun, etc.)
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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2278 on: February 20, 2017, 01:31:03 PM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

Yes, if one thing is clear it's that the republicans are experts at exploiting human capital to the benefit of people who have accumulated other forms of capital.

Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't.

I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2279 on: February 20, 2017, 01:51:29 PM »
Guest worker program incoming.

Hmm exploitation of the hardworking people, eh?  Republicans want to cut welfare - right?  Shouldn't those jobs go to soon-to-be-former welfare recipients?

Yes, if one thing is clear it's that the republicans are experts at exploiting human capital to the benefit of people who have accumulated other forms of capital.

Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't.

I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly.
Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized.

I concur that literally any able-bodied person can get a job picking fruit, or as a day-laborer or dish washer, etc. I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. 
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RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2280 on: February 20, 2017, 03:27:17 PM »
What little I have heard about the crack down on illegals does seem to carry a tinge of racism. Either that our they are only conveniently talking about Mexican illegal immigrants. Otherwise I would think we would hear something about a crack down on overstayed visa's from a multitude of countries from which we probably have illegals.

I also wonder if this will have any impact on the cost of manual labor across the board. I wonder how many gardening, landscaping and budget construction outfits are employing illegals at low wages.

I don't condone hiring illegals to do work, or be exploited, but it is probably a real cost that many of take advantage of without knowing it even. I don't know who my HOA employees to keep our condo grounds but I know none of the workers are white...

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2281 on: February 21, 2017, 05:53:06 AM »
A British schoolteacher was denied entry to the US while taking his students on a trip.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/20/british-muslim-teacher-denied-entry-to-us-on-school-trip?CMP=fb_gu

This administration is a cancer.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2282 on: February 21, 2017, 06:13:59 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 06:26:43 AM by Working Mama »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2283 on: February 21, 2017, 06:25:25 AM »
THe long-term effects of mechanization is a good thing to consider, but I think we tend to be short-sighted and prone to thinking 'this time is different!'.  This is a subject that has garnered fear for over two centuries.  Textile mills used to employ thousands each. Transport ships used to have crews of hundreds. Automobile factories used to have dozens working on each car.  Now those jobs are done by just a few and the output is orders of magnitude more.  YEt here we are, with a greater percentage of families living above poverty than ever before.

Even when we 'loose' jobs to mechanization and productivity gains, those profits wind up being shifted somewhere else. The service industry is one place that's had spectacular growth, in part because people outsource more and more tasks.  EVentually those jobs may go to, but I'll bet people will just shift into something else.

then there's the whole 'universal income' idea.  Not entirely sold on it yet, but it could make a lot of sense.
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Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2284 on: February 21, 2017, 06:43:28 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
I think it is self-selection. Those who are willing to take the risks to come here are more likely to work damn hard once they get here.  There are the same people here and we can select for them but we are comparing a specific group to a whole population.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2285 on: February 21, 2017, 06:56:19 AM »
...
I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
I think it is self-selection. Those who are willing to take the risks to come here are more likely to work damn hard once they get here.  There are the same people here and we can select for them but we are comparing a specific group to a whole population.
I think there may be some truth to this; people who were born in this country and who are very motivated most likely have already found gainful employment.  Those who are new here are often very motivated, but they're competing with people who, for whatever reason, have already been 'selected out' of the normal economy.  So we've got motivated immigrants competing against the least successful native-borns.  It isn't surprising (to me) which wind up being the better employees.
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justchristine

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2286 on: February 21, 2017, 07:14:50 AM »

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?

There was an investigative show, I think it was Vice, that looked into the impact that the illegal immigrant crack down in one southern state (i forget which one) had on the farming industry.  The farmers really struggled to find workers that would show up and put in the effort.  One farmer they interviewed even tried working with the prison system to use convicts to harvest but they were not nearly as productive as he needed workers to be.  It was really an enlightening show.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2287 on: February 21, 2017, 07:50:56 AM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2288 on: February 21, 2017, 08:03:50 AM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
As a scientist working in Canada right now, I can attest that this is a very big deal right now in the scientific community. No one wants to exclude their colleagues from a meeting, and it's causing some logistical problems when scheduling conferences, which are the main way that we get feedback and build partnerships with other programs.

It might not have a huge economic impact beyond the immediate vicinity of conference centers in downtown areas, but the US scientific community certainly looses
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Burghardt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2289 on: February 21, 2017, 08:20:05 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".

Source?
Ethics reform plans and listening to Trump talk. It's not like he ever made a secret out of being rich or that he was going to appoint ludicrously successful / rich people.

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.
The implication is that you get exactly what you were voting for - and that their wealth makes them disproportionately harder to buy, allowing for independent decisions. One of the core things Trump campaigned on, really. The obvious danger is setting a fox to keep the geese, if that's the right way to put it in English.
However - to say this isn't perfectly in line with what he said on the campaign trail is false.

In my opinion, Miller and Bannon are far greater cause for concern. I see both of them as ideologues who won't hesitate to abandon reasonable judgment in favor of personal agenda.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2290 on: February 21, 2017, 08:53:01 AM »
*Side issue: In another thread, I mentioned Trump doing the inverse of draining the swamp when he hired billionaires and centimillionaires for his cabinet. The reply from a Trump supporter was, "I thought "the man" was the ones oppressing those tycoons." I never realized that there were different definitions of The Man and that, somehow, a billionaire wasn't part of the establishment. It must be related to Ayn Randian worship.
you are referring to the meaning of "drain the swamp" as branded by the media. They insist it meant removing money in general from politics, regardless of who holds it.
The original implication was to remove politicians who follow neither their own nor their constituents will, but the will of the highest bidder from the circle of lobbyists and special interest groups for personal, not the country's, gain.
This is "the swamp".

Source?
Ethics reform plans and listening to Trump talk. It's not like he ever made a secret out of being rich or that he was going to appoint ludicrously successful / rich people.

Also, doesn't one follow the other? The highest bidder is only possible because there's huge money in politics. That money comes from corporate interests and billionaires and, generally, the .1%.

Getting rid of an entrenched Congressling who listens to money from lobbyists is a good thing but it doesn't really help if the buyer behind the lobbyist replaces him/her.
The implication is that you get exactly what you were voting for - and that their wealth makes them disproportionately harder to buy, allowing for independent decisions. One of the core things Trump campaigned on, really. The obvious danger is setting a fox to keep the geese, if that's the right way to put it in English.
However - to say this isn't perfectly in line with what he said on the campaign trail is false.

see - that line of thinking might actually hold some water if Trump hadn't specifically and routinely attacked HRC for being "too cozy with Wall Street".  Hiring billionaires doesn't equate with people who will act in the best interests of the country because they don't need the wealth.  In most cases greed and ambition is what drives these ultra-rich individuals, and money is their measuring stick. Despite not actually needing any more money they see regulation and taxes as the enemy to increasing their profits, and will move to reduce and remove these even at the expense of 'the little people.'
Furthermore, DJT has appointed several of the RNC's largest donors, including Linda McMahon and Betsy DeVos, despite neither having any clear experience or aptitude for their respective positions.  This runs counter to your argument that they he has "drained the swamp" by eliminating the influence of 'the highest bidder.'
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Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2291 on: February 21, 2017, 09:02:24 AM »
Another realistic impact: According to a former National Security Council member, we are much less safe and ready for a possible terrorist attack now that Trump is in the White House.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/2/20/1635992/-National-Security-Council-veteran-warns-that-our-terrorism-readiness-is-dangerously-low?Detail=facebook
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2292 on: February 21, 2017, 09:14:30 AM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

Yes, if this actually happened I think they would work - or maybe the suicide rate/homelessness/etc. would go even higher for these folks since they think they're entitled to more. I don't think it'll happen.

The reality is that the US has always had an exploitable underclass that's really lifted the rest of the population in terms of standard of living and the overall economy. Slaves, indentured servants, various waves of legal and illegal immigrants. No great American feat from settling the massive continent to building railroads and other infrastructure to winning the civil and various other wars could have been accomplished without this underclass.

It's indisputable, if facts are to be considered, that immigration (including illegal immigration) is so good for the legal/native born population that even if they do turn it down for a bit it'll come back.

I wrote a long post about why this is so here: http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/anti-immigrant-republicans-please-help-me-understand/msg1301415/#msg1301415

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2293 on: February 21, 2017, 09:29:57 AM »
Yes, if this actually happened I think they would work - or maybe the suicide rate/homelessness/etc. would go even higher for these folks since they think they're entitled to more. I don't think it'll happen.

Crime will go up. I lived overseas in a country with alot of unemployment. Lots of young men who could not find work. They turned to organized crime, petty theft, blackmarkets, unregulated businesses working "off the grid" i.e. renting a small shop to make or fix stuff. This led to a bustling underground economy where you could buy things or get things fixed very affordably for cash but no recourse if they did shabby work or disappeared with your item that you left for repair. It also led to alot of tax evasion. 

Sockigal

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2294 on: February 21, 2017, 12:01:23 PM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2295 on: February 21, 2017, 12:46:52 PM »
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.

It also assumes that the majority of people on welfare or getting benefits live where they could get out in the fields and work or that they could easily get out to the countryside to do these jobs. Since people on benefits or that are homeless live mostly in cities, just like the rest of the US population, both of those assumptions are rather silly. Add in the fact that farm work isn't much better than slave labor in many cases (long hours, very little pay, no breaks) and the whole poisoning aspect (quite a few people around the world are sickened or die due to pesticides, mostly insecticides, every single year--even here in the US) and yes, it's a thoroughly unappealing job.

But sure, get all those poor people out there and make them fucking grateful for it! I mean, shouldn't they be happy they've got a job at all?

Working Mama

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2296 on: February 21, 2017, 01:10:14 PM »
A question about this point: "Your argument assumes anyone on welfare would ever do that job. It's a hard job. They could go right now to any farm and do the job, but they won't."

But IF welfare is cut won't able bodied folks need to work - if they want to eat?

"I also disagree that costs would rise that much. Just like in fast food and manufacturing, you'd see robotics get more involved if labor costs increased significantly."

and this quote:

"Mechanized harvesting is the holy-grail of most farming technology, but for most fruit crops it has yet to be realized.  I'm sure someday it will, but not in the months-to-a-year timeframe we're talking about here. I expect in 5-10 years though a lot more of our harvesting will be mechanized."

But that takes a long time to get up and running. I heard, a while back, a news story about trying to mechanize broccoli picking but it was unable to determine when the veg was ready to be picked.  It seems it is going to be a long way off... but no doubt it is being worked on now.  Maybe the five to ten years estimate is accurate?


So what kind of societal upset will the world have with all these people who use to work and now there is zero work for them?  Do we have a few more wars to reduce the population? MAyeb climate change or the pandemic Bill gates is warning us about will reset the worlds population? Marshall Brain's book comes to mind - is it called Mana?

"I ran an aquaculture farm and we constantly hired people to help with harvesting and processing. A few native-born people applied but they never stayed long. Those who were born elsewhere worked harder and stuck around, and most would work harvesting crops when our work was slow. "

I always wondered if this notion that Americans don't want to work as hard as immigrants was a myth or real.  While I appreciate your experience, and I have a similar perception, has anyone actually seen research that is more conclusive?
It's a fallacy that people on welfare or those who obtain government assistance don't already work full time jobs. Most of those on welfare already work, the government subsidizes their earned income. I have worked various jobs the last couple of years in the grocery industry. Many of my co-workers worked full time at (very fancy grocery stores) and also received government assistance. Some of these workers put in 15 to 20 years with the company and still were earning only $15-20 a hour. Then those jobs were eliminated. These folks were asked to step into lower positions with even less pay, but do the same duties as their previous job titles.

SAD

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2297 on: February 21, 2017, 04:12:05 PM »
4Chan didn't put Trump in office though parts of that demographic being drawn to him is no real surprise. Working class people in the rust belt elected Trump, that's what the number show. Most other people voted along party lines which is not real surprise given the polarizing nature of the candidates.

My only experience with 4Chan has been reading former users opinions of it. When people refer to 4Chan regulars as losers, I think they are more focused on them being socially repressed or awkward. It doesn't mean they are all jobless pot smokers. Even many of its own former users admit that being deeply involved in 4Chan, like poring hours daily into it, is generally unhealthy. It is a sign of extreme boredom, a general disillusion and anger with regular society. Some former users have some pretty strong opinions on much of it being a cyclone of negativity dragging everyone involved down with it and that they were happy to eventually escape. Or they could just be looking at walls of cat memes all day.

Overall I have not heard any heavy user describe it as place where happy well adjusted people go regularly to hold interesting discussions. It is kind of the opposite thing. 4Chan and pepe's ties to the Trump election are fun and interesting in a ridiculous way. But the populist right wing movement that Trump jumped in on with the help of Steve Bannon is a phenomenon well beyond the bounds of a handful of 4Chan dissidents.

It is a real reaction based in a festering undercurrent of right wing racism and nationalism in the face of a Muslim refugee crises with new bolder Muslim terrorism, a long held animosity towards Mexican immigrants, mixed with a very healthy serving of economic distress in the middle class as globalization continues to rip away high paying skilled labor jobs. That has been happening for at least the past 30 years. The same sentiments are manifesting in populist movements all over Europe, sometimes with right wing people worse than Trump, other times with left wing populists like Bernie Sanders. The left wingers prefer to rail on the 0.01% that are profiteering off globalization and single them out, leaving immigrants out of the circle of hate. But much of the core reaction is the same.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2298 on: February 21, 2017, 04:25:03 PM »
In other news, riots immigrants riot in Sweden today.  http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/europe/sweden-stockholm-riots/index.html

I can just imagine how Trump will play this one.

Give me one fine day of plain sailing weather and I can mess up anything.

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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2299 on: February 22, 2017, 01:25:09 PM »
Here's another realistic impact of the Trump presidency: the international scientific community will no longer want to travel or come to the US.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-02-20/scientists-skip-international-meeting-due-fear-us-travel
I know this has been covered either in this thread or another similar, but beyond being afraid of traveling to the US, why would scientists want to come to US when we are just not going to put as much money into the research? The rest of the world is going to leave the US in the dust.