Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 239202 times)

chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2200 on: February 18, 2017, 04:43:31 PM »
Do any of you think that some of Trump's executive actions have been clearly unconstitutional? If so, I'm curious which ones. I've thought that some of them are borderline, but that none are just obviously an overreach. But I'm not sure I've looked carefully at them all. This is one of the main areas that concerned me about Trump since the campaign, during which he said he'd violate the constitution in this way if necessary.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2201 on: February 18, 2017, 04:57:01 PM »
... This is one of the main areas that concerned me about Trump since the campaign, during which he said he'd violate the constitution in this way if necessary.

When did Trump say he would violate the constitution if necessary?
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chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2202 on: February 18, 2017, 05:11:48 PM »
Whether he said such a thing is going to be controversial depending on your view of what Obama did. Here's what I had in mind:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/265371-trump-obama-led-the-way-on-executive-orders

If (like me) you think that Obama's use of executive action was unconstitutional, then this sounds like Trump is saying he will use executive action in a way that is unconstitutional.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2203 on: February 18, 2017, 05:12:30 PM »
Yeah, it's time to stop bothering whining about minor Trump corruption or idiotic Trump verbiage/malapropisms.
Yes, and for the record, we should be more frightened of Trump's malapriapisms!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2204 on: February 18, 2017, 05:14:06 PM »
It's sad to be relieved that Trump is back to harmless campaigning and not trying to do anything Presidential like talking to foreign leaders.  Maybe he'll stay out of Washington all week and the people who do real work and have real jobs can not be distracted, defeated, and disappointed by Trump's terrifying news conferences and meetings.  He's not a politician, but now that the novelty has worn off, that's turning out to be a real problem.
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dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2205 on: February 18, 2017, 05:28:09 PM »
Do any of you think that some of Trump's executive actions have been clearly unconstitutional? If so, I'm curious which ones. I've thought that some of them are borderline, but that none are just obviously an overreach. But I'm not sure I've looked carefully at them all. This is one of the main areas that concerned me about Trump since the campaign, during which he said he'd violate the constitution in this way if necessary.

Are you kidding?  Have you been paying attention to recent court rulings?

chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2206 on: February 18, 2017, 05:29:53 PM »
So the immigration order. Didn't seem like an obvious overreach to me (not to say it was a smart policy). Maybe you disagree. Like I said, I'm just curious what you all think. Any of the other ones?

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2207 on: February 18, 2017, 05:42:10 PM »
So the immigration order. Didn't seem like an obvious overreach to me (not to say it was a smart policy). Maybe you disagree. Like I said, I'm just curious what you all think. Any of the other ones?
Well the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality, and so far they have stayed the immigration policy (not ruled it unconstitutional).  Time will tell whether it will be ruled as such or not (assuming the administration pushes the case, which I tend to think it won't).
Besides that, the administration really hasn't done a whole lot other than sign a bunch of executive orders which, smart policy or not, are all probably above bar. 
Has anything happened we don't know about?  Possibly - but its a pretty short time frame.
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chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2208 on: February 18, 2017, 05:53:46 PM »
Quote
the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality

That doesn't seem right to me if you mean that they're by definition right on constitutional matters. They make judgments, of course, and their judgments have legal authority. But it isn't as if they can't get it wrong. Precedent is sometimes rightly overturned, and that's only possible because they sometimes issue a judgment that gets the constitution wrong. It's coherent to disagree with the court on a matter of constitutional interpretation.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2209 on: February 18, 2017, 06:02:17 PM »
Quote
the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality

That doesn't seem right to me if you mean that they're by definition right on constitutional matters. They make judgments, of course, and their judgments have legal authority. But it isn't as if they can't get it wrong. Precedent is sometimes rightly overturned, and that's only possible because they sometimes issue a judgment that gets the constitution wrong. It's coherent to disagree with the court on a matter of constitutional interpretation.

The courts are by definition right on constitutional matters. And the Supreme court is always right, by definition.

There's a neat quote about the Supreme Court (I think some Chief Justice said it):

The Supreme Court isn't final because it's infallible. It's infallible because it's final.

i.e. The Supreme Court (and lower courts if not challenged) are right because they're the decider on what's right.

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2210 on: February 18, 2017, 06:03:47 PM »
So the immigration order. Didn't seem like an obvious overreach to me (not to say it was a smart policy). Maybe you disagree. Like I said, I'm just curious what you all think. Any of the other ones?
Well the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality, and so far they have stayed the immigration policy (not ruled it unconstitutional).  Time will tell whether it will be ruled as such or not (assuming the administration pushes the case, which I tend to think it won't).
Besides that, the administration really hasn't done a whole lot other than sign a bunch of executive orders which, smart policy or not, are all probably above bar. 
Has anything happened we don't know about?  Possibly - but its a pretty short time frame.

A number of courts stayed the order based on likelihood of unconstitutionality.  Plus basically everyone with legal knowledge expected that outcome.  If trump had actually consulted state or anyone else with abrain, they would have told him the same thing

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2211 on: February 18, 2017, 06:06:30 PM »
Quote
the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality

That doesn't seem right to me if you mean that they're by definition right on constitutional matters. They make judgments, of course, and their judgments have legal authority. But it isn't as if they can't get it wrong. Precedent is sometimes rightly overturned, and that's only possible because they sometimes issue a judgment that gets the constitution wrong. It's coherent to disagree with the court on a matter of constitutional interpretation.
well then there's the question of legal precedent which is the underpinning of our entire rule of law. If the courts determine something to be constitutional, all future questions can reference that decision.

Also, your point is... what exactly?  that because the courts can be faliable, we cannot trust them with regards to what is and is not constitutional?  If so, how exactly is that determined?  By a bunch of armchair internet judges?

Quote
A number of courts stayed the order based on likelihood of unconstitutionality.  Plus basically everyone with legal knowledge expected that outcome.  If trump had actually consulted state or anyone else with abrain, they would have told him the same thing
oh, I believe, based on initial rulings, that the EO will be struck down should it ever go before the supreme court.  I'm just pointing out that's not the only option here. A much more likely scenario (IMO) is that the EO gets reworked and it never goes to the supreme court because it's effectively toast.
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chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2212 on: February 18, 2017, 06:11:31 PM »
Quote
The courts are by definition right on constitutional matters.

I guess it depends on what you mean by 'right'. If by 'right' you mean that they have the legal authority to settle these matters, then of course that's true.

But how could a dissenting opinion even make sense if the majority is, by definition, correct about the constitution? A dissenting opinion says, in effect, "the majority is wrongly interpreting the constitution". It would be absurd to suggest that this is by definition impossible!

waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2213 on: February 18, 2017, 06:13:15 PM »
Quote
the courts are the ones who determine unconstitutionality

That doesn't seem right to me if you mean that they're by definition right on constitutional matters. They make judgments, of course, and their judgments have legal authority. But it isn't as if they can't get it wrong. Precedent is sometimes rightly overturned, and that's only possible because they sometimes issue a judgment that gets the constitution wrong. It's coherent to disagree with the court on a matter of constitutional interpretation.

Without weighing in on the executive order on immigration (or any other) directly, I'll point out that the constitution is a very opaque document, written in somewhat archaic language. There isn't really a "right" or "wrong" in many modern cases, so you have to start saying "what would the folks who wrote the constitution have thought about this?" and just let that ride.

That interpretation can and should change over time, and it has.

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chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2214 on: February 18, 2017, 06:22:29 PM »
Quote
Also, your point is... what exactly?  that because the courts can be faliable, we cannot trust them with regards to what is and is not constitutional?  If so, how exactly is that determined?  By a bunch of armchair internet judges?

I'm not sure how to answer this. If you agree that they are fallible, then you agree with me that the court is not by definition correct on these issues. That was the whole point. Dragoncar could be right that the immigration order is unconstitutional, even though the courts haven't issued a final ruling yet.

Quote
There isn't really a "right" or "wrong" in many modern cases

I agree that some cases don't have a clear right or wrong, and maybe that in some cases there literally isn't a right and wrong independent of what the court says. But that's not always the case. The constitution has to place some constraint on what the judges rule. Of course it's a matter of great controversy exactly how that works. But for example most of us will agree that, if congress were to pass a law stating that everyone must attend church each Sunday, that would be objectively contrary to the first amendment. So there are clear cases, there are hard cases, and maybe there are cases in which there's literally no correct answer. But my question was: are there any exectuive actions so far that look like easy calls on being unconstitutional?

marty998

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2215 on: February 18, 2017, 06:32:22 PM »
It seems the game plan is:
Step 1: yuuge tax cuts
Step 2: increase defense spending to defeat ISIS, ICE funding to defeat illegal immigrants
Step 3: blame sad democrats (and lying media) for deficits that libertarians point out
Step 4: defund government agencies that regulate stuff
Step 5: win mid-terms because now we are safe
Probably not far off, but you forgot:
Step 6: suffer countless strings of environmental disasters because no one was regulating
Step 7: economy tanks when super-bubble pops from financial sector taking ridiculous risks while no one was watching
Step 8: enter new quagmire because super-beefed up military needs to be used, right?
Step 9: corruption on a new scale for America result from undisclosed conflict of interests.

Actually, i'm not sure the exact order of 6, 7, 8, & 9 but I"m pretty sure all will come to pass in one form or another over the next 4 years.


#3 and #4 are already happening, no?


#6 will happen regardless of regulations... Exxon Valdez, BP etc... these happen because people make inherently stupid decisions, or decisions based on maximising greed / profit and are willing to take the risk. Regulation doesn't stop people from crossing lines, otherwise there'd be no need for police & courts.


#7 will play out during Trump's second term or after he leaves office. Remember the GFC played out over the course of 2 years from August 2007 to mid 2009... and even then when sharemarkets recovered there was talk of a double dip for a few years afterwards until 2012.


#8... well yeah... you guys do seem to love being in wars perpetually... Nam, Korea, Gulf, Afghanistan, Iraq to name only the most well known ones. We tag along on it all too.


Trump has put out a number of conflicting remarks... wants to destroy ISIS but doesn't want to act as world policeman anymore, other countries taking advantage of your military etc. Honestly no one really knows what he will do when faced with an actual decision to make. He might just decide to sue them all instead :D

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2216 on: February 18, 2017, 07:07:21 PM »

oh, I believe, based on initial rulings, that the EO will be struck down should it ever go before the supreme court.  I'm just pointing out that's not the only option here. A much more likely scenario (IMO) is that the EO gets reworked and it never goes to the supreme court because it's effectively toast.

Sure, in fact Trump said he wouldn't pursue the EO and would rework it.  That's just more evidence on the side that the original EO was unconstitutional. 

Dragoncar could be right that the immigration order is unconstitutional, even though the courts haven't issued a final ruling yet.

Yeah, and climate change isn't certain until we're underwater.  If your position is that we can't know whether anything is unconstitutional until the Supreme Court makes a final ruling (and we wait another 1000 years just to make sure that ruling is never overturned) then yeah I guess Trump's never done anything unconstitutional and nobody else has either because it's unknowable.  But for the purposes of rational and practical discussion, his Muslim Ban EO was unconstitutional.

chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2217 on: February 18, 2017, 07:15:14 PM »
Quote
If your position is that we can't know whether anything is unconstitutional until the Supreme Court makes a final ruling

I think you may be misunderstanding me. This is not my position, it's (apprently?) nereo's, and I've been arguing that it's not true that we have to wait.

You and I just disagree about whether the immigration order is obviously unconstitutional. I think it is not obviously unconstitutional, and you think it is.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2218 on: February 18, 2017, 07:25:06 PM »
Quote
If your position is that we can't know whether anything is unconstitutional until the Supreme Court makes a final ruling

I think you may be misunderstanding me. This is not my position, it's (apprently?) nereo's, and I've been arguing that it's not true that we have to wait.

You and I just disagree about whether the immigration order is obviously unconstitutional. I think it is not obviously unconstitutional, and you think it is.

Chad, I don't get what you're saying either. Is there any example of something that's been done that's "obviously" unconstitutional? You can put the word "obviously" in there and it will mean something different to everyone.



waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2219 on: February 18, 2017, 07:27:49 PM »
Let me give you an example, Chad.

The 2nd amendment says, "A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

Now, leaving aside the militia part, how do you define "arms"? Most people would, today, say that anything from a knife to an ICBM ("arms" control treaties?) constitutes an "arm".

But you can't own, say, a .50 cal machine gun, or a mortar, or that ICBM legally. How so? The constitution clearly says you can!

The supreme court has ruled on this many times, and if you read between the lines, they did this: they said,  "ok, in the day of the founders, "arms" meant low rate of fire slug-throwers. That's what's allowed."

You can accurately say that the supreme court (relatively uncontroversially, nobody wants the neighborhood n'er do well testing out their new mortar) *defied the literal interpretation of the constitution* in this case.

And it happens all the time. And it should. A quarter-millennium old document can't anticipate modern technology or mores or society.

-W

chad

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2220 on: February 18, 2017, 07:44:12 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2221 on: February 18, 2017, 08:07:06 PM »
Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Chad: 0
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waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2222 on: February 18, 2017, 08:38:02 PM »
Yeah, bluntly, Chad, your whole idea is dumb. We have a whole legal apparatus full of professional nerds interpreting laws (and, if you really want to get geeky about it, have since the days of Moses) that aren't totally clear and have to be applied to weird and novel situations they weren't written for.

That's hard, and it's complex, and it's not easy to figure out over a beer. Sorry.

-W

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2223 on: February 18, 2017, 10:06:02 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Well that de-escalated quickly...
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

calimom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2224 on: February 18, 2017, 10:11:16 PM »
Chad had me at "dudes". That was super-serious!

disconneked

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2225 on: February 18, 2017, 10:19:32 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Mr. Dude,
This forum is very opinionated and mostly polarized left. Understand this man, and you will find peace.

The President did have the authority for the travel ban. (like one judge in Washington should shutdown a nationwide order because of what will effect Washington, and all for "rights" of non-citizens.) National security is being politicized and turned into a clown show. The fact is we are a deeply divided country. Not too far from civil war but not there yet either. You see the video footage of that guy that pulled out an AR15 to take a Trump flag off of someones truck-- yeah like thats okay. I don't advertise my Trumpness in public but I'm ready to shoot. I'm team red.
;)

disconneked

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2226 on: February 18, 2017, 10:46:29 PM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
;)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2227 on: February 18, 2017, 11:10:31 PM »
It's sad to be relieved that Trump is back to harmless campaigning and not trying to do anything Presidential like talking to foreign leaders.  Maybe he'll stay out of Washington all week and the people who do real work and have real jobs can not be distracted, defeated, and disappointed by Trump's terrifying news conferences and meetings.  He's not a politician, but now that the novelty has worn off, that's turning out to be a real problem.

Going back to my original point before all of the weirdness, the country did want an outsider, but also expects some return on investment.  Why can't Trump channel some of his non-politician, outside businessman freedom to crowdsource his next initiative.  Most successful CEOs are amazing people that take a little time and then come back with great ideas.  How cool would it be if there were some 'help me with a good answer to xx policy (border security, dealing with terror, Wall Street reform) online / social media interaction.  Americans would feel represented if it didn't come down to electing one person, and then having all of the BS of faux-representing the majority thrown in our face (and bizarrely, dishonestly, then repeatedly lying about it).  Trump should leverage his team and willing help, not 'enjoy' confronting the world in some bombastic media event, which he then bizarrely denounces as being fake.

Trump is increasingly the party of the 0.1%.  How did we get to this point, maybe some misguided hope and optimism?  But why are we stuck here?
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Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2228 on: February 18, 2017, 11:13:23 PM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Mr. Dude,
This forum is very opinionated and mostly polarized left. Understand this man, and you will find peace.

The President did have the authority for the travel ban. (like one judge in Washington should shutdown a nationwide order because of what will effect Washington, and all for "rights" of non-citizens.) National security is being politicized and turned into a clown show. The fact is we are a deeply divided country. Not too far from civil war but not there yet either. You see the video footage of that guy that pulled out an AR15 to take a Trump flag off of someones truck-- yeah like thats okay. I don't advertise my Trumpness in public but I'm ready to shoot. I'm team red.

Hai troll! <waves>

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2229 on: February 18, 2017, 11:28:04 PM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2230 on: February 18, 2017, 11:48:43 PM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

Trust me Sol, Trump support has distilled down to the dregs.  We are at the point where even Trump has to call out 'dishonest media' in light of the fact they are just reporting video footage of his own statements and inability to craft real, consistent, coherent policy.  I'm not really sure where it goes from here, but you really don't want to hear from the remaining Trump blind support crowd.  Beating your head against a wall might actually result in more satisfying progress.
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dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2231 on: February 19, 2017, 12:12:14 AM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.

Dudes, nevermind, I withdraw the question.

Well I answered your question and if you are curious about the reasoning you can read the Actual court opinions.  Sorry if I'm misunderstanding you but is that not enough to satisfy your curiosity?

Edit: here's one, enjoy http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf
« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 12:14:43 AM by dragoncar »

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2232 on: February 19, 2017, 12:19:57 AM »
Hai troll! <waves>

I'd like to believe that not every poster who comes here praising Donald Trump is a troll.  But so far, those folks have offered very little substance to any debate about Trump, and lots of lots of silly lies and faux anger. 

Are there any Trump supporters here would like to offer a reasoned defense of the current administration?  Because thus far, all I see is a long series of fuck-ups.

Millions of people voted for Trump because they thought he would bring back their jobs.  Unemployment was already down to 5% when he took office and may even continue to improve slowly, but Trump can't really bring back small town manufacturing jobs.  He blamed Mexicans for our economy, which is actually pretty strong right now, without recognizing the vital role that immigration plays in keeping our economy growing (since Americans don't breed fast enough to grow their population own their own).  He openly insults our allies abroad while signalling he wants to upset standing alliances.  He claims to want law and order, but then signs blatantly unconstitutional executive orders.  He keeps telling us about he has "the best people" but his staff keeps getting fired and his appointees keep getting rejected for lacking basic qualifications.  I just don't see how he's delivered on any of his campaign promises that minority of the country that actually voted for him.  Quite the contrary, it looks like he's sticking his finger in their eye even more forcefully than he's trying to stick it to liberals.

I don't think they all are. I think most aren't, actually, but the non trolls take so much offense at being associated with such that they tend to dig in, or more commonly, shove their heads further into the sand. It is one of my own flaws that I can't help but condescendingly and sarcastically remark on their troll-like associations, most likely making it less likely they will change their views. Not my finest quality, I fully admit. I just hope they at least take some small consolation in the fact that I have just as much frustration and disdain for the liberals out there who think the DNC will save us all.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2233 on: February 19, 2017, 02:02:01 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2234 on: February 19, 2017, 03:52:28 AM »
...

All I said is he is spending tax payer money on this stuff at a dramatically higher rate than any previous president (true). That his family is personally profiting from these expenses (true). And that he is undeniably a hypocrite given his past comments about Obama (true). Finally, I noted that Trump supporters repeatedly brush even the most minor of criticisms (which I admit this is) by saying things like "he's no worse than Obama" (also true--that they make this statement, that is).

The only debatable thing I said was that he's behaving unethically, which still is not a strawman because I in no way leveraged that argument to make a more sweeping claim.

His family personally profiting from POTUS travel expenses is glaringly BAD, UNETHICAL and UNACCEPTABLE.  I cannot believe his ostensibly conservative, fiscally hawkish supporters are brushing off this behavior as if it's no big deal.

All I can figure is that we are so divided, that they've come to believe that the 'other side' plays dirty tricks/acts unethically, so that justifies unethical behavior from people on their own team.

Fuck these teams. They are dehumanizing. They are turning us into uncritical, unthinking idiots.
 
Take my dad, for example. Previously a rational person, his brain is that of a political zombie. He doesn't see anything wrong with Trump Corp profiting off of the US taxpayer, nor the 10x expenditures in comparison to Obama. OMG if Obama owned a hotel, and profited personally from the travel of secret service members in his hotel - my dad would go apeshit crazy over it. I remember him getting angry about Obama spending his money on a round of golf. But somehow Trump profiting off of his tax dollars is okay. 

The fact that people give this behavior a pass is baffling and infuriating. We should hold ourselves, and our elected officials to a higher standard. I still blame the privately funded two party system. Until we fix that, we will either continue to elect these ass hats, or see the end of our great country in our own lifetimes.

 

« Last Edit: February 19, 2017, 03:54:46 AM by Malaysia41 »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2235 on: February 19, 2017, 04:37:42 AM »
I think to myself "there are a lot of people critical of Trump on this thread, and I bet they have intelligent, interesting opinions about which of his executive actions are unconstitutional". I ask my question. Then I'm told incredulously (Dragoncar) that the immigration order is unconstitutional as if that's just supposed to be obvious. After that, Nereo says that nothing is unconstitutional until the court issues a final decision. That's absurd, but whatever, I agrue that Nereo is wrong about this. So then I'm told (waltworks) that no constitutional issue is ever clear, because the whole constitution is as hard to interpret as the second amendment. Finally, dividend man suggests that my question is somehow unclear.


I'll speak just for myself on this - I never said (or even inferred) that the constitutionality of a law, order, etc is not decided until the courts make a decision. That's absurd - most laws are mundane little tweaks that never get put in front of the court because people overwhelmingly believe they are constitutional.

My point - which I think you misinterpreted - is that the courts get to have the final say about whether a law is constitutional. If an action is ruled unconstitutional, that's it... up until and if a ruling from a higher court (or a different supreme court) rules otherwise, OR until the constitution is amended.

NONE of this is to suggest that an unconstitutional law is somehow constitutional until the courts make their ruling.  Should a court strike down a law it was never constitutional to begin with.  I think that is what you are getting at here - what has DJT and his administration done that is obviously unconstitutional and that will eventually be reversed in the courts or die simply because its reversed and no longer in play.  IMO the EO ban is in this category. 
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2236 on: February 19, 2017, 04:46:45 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2237 on: February 19, 2017, 04:57:53 AM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2238 on: February 19, 2017, 05:05:04 AM »
It seems the game plan is:
Step 1: yuuge tax cuts
Step 2: increase defense spending to defeat ISIS, ICE funding to defeat illegal immigrants
Step 3: blame sad democrats (and lying media) for deficits that libertarians point out
Step 4: defund government agencies that regulate stuff
Step 5: win mid-terms because now we are safe
Probably not far off, but you forgot:
Step 6: suffer countless strings of environmental disasters because no one was regulating
Step 7: economy tanks when super-bubble pops from financial sector taking ridiculous risks while no one was watching
Step 8: enter new quagmire because super-beefed up military needs to be used, right?
Step 9: corruption on a new scale for America result from undisclosed conflict of interests.

Actually, i'm not sure the exact order of 6, 7, 8, & 9 but I"m pretty sure all will come to pass in one form or another over the next 4 years.
#3 and #4 are already happening, no?

#6 will happen regardless of regulations... Exxon Valdez, BP etc... these happen because people make inherently stupid decisions, or decisions based on maximising greed / profit and are willing to take the risk. Regulation doesn't stop people from crossing lines, otherwise there'd be no need for police & courts.

#7 will play out during Trump's second term or after he leaves office. Remember the GFC played out over the course of 2 years from August 2007 to mid 2009... and even then when sharemarkets recovered there was talk of a double dip for a few years afterwards until 2012.

#8... well yeah... you guys do seem to love being in wars perpetually... Nam, Korea, Gulf, Afghanistan, Iraq to name only the most well known ones. We tag along on it all too.
re #4: nothing has been defunded as of yet.  New hires have been frozen, but that's not unique to this administration (Carter and Reagan did similar blanket freezes, both of which are considered a fiscal bust in retrospect). DJT has also ordered the focus of certain agencies to be realigned, but again that is nothing new.  Only Congress can defund - and that will be a raucous debate I'm sure.

Re #6: NO! the whole point of regulations is to deter an individual or corporation from doing something we see as "bad". In most cases corporations follow regulations, especially if there's a fiscal penalty to be paid for not doing so. Are they followed 100%? of course not.  But I firmly believe easing up on regulations will lead to companies taking on more risk, and as is the case with risk sometimes those turn south.

Re #7: it's been 8 long years since we exited the last (great!) recession, which is already longer than the median time between recessions of ~7 years.  It will be historic if we somehow go 4 more years with no recession.  Will the next one be triggered by the popping of an economic bubble?  maybe yes, maybe no - but several of our most recent recessions have gone this route.  Will DJT actually be to blame?  well that's one we can't ever prove and people will argue with for eons. As usual the caveat applies that a president gets too much credit when the economy improves and too much blame when it tanks, unless it's Obama

Re #8:  see you there!
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2239 on: February 19, 2017, 06:06:34 AM »
So... republicans have the Congress and the Presidency... shouldn't one impact of this be some fuckin' tax cuts? Where are my tax cuts. They always talk about tax cuts. Can we have some tax cuts?

It's only been a few weeks. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2240 on: February 19, 2017, 06:08:32 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".
I didn't see any robbery or intent to permanently deprive.  I would probably agree to criminal damage, based on the tearing sound.
There is no proof that the driver was still in earshot when the gun came out, and the gun was not pointed at anyone but held safely pointing down, so I can't agree to the "force" argument.

Was I being sarcastic?  The video referenced is the logical consequence of the constitutional rights so passionately defended by many in the US: people, including people you may not like, can have the right to carry guns in the street and have the right to shout whatever they like that is not a criminal threat.  If you defend those rights, you also have to defend the exercise of them as demonstrated in that video.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2241 on: February 19, 2017, 06:12:31 AM »
#SwedenIncident

Really wish it were ABBA or IKEA...but no...

#TrumpDiplomacy

We are all combing through the newspapers trying to understand what happened in Sweden on Friday. So far, the best theories are:
-He misheard Sehwan (in Pakistan) for Sweden. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-sehwan-attack-dead-islamic-state-injured-in-terrorist-attack-shrine-4529321/
-He heard about the moose raping a wooden statue, and thought it was a muslim that did it (photo #6): http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/Vn17J/in-english-this-happened-in-sweden-friday-night-mr-president
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KBecks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2242 on: February 19, 2017, 06:34:58 AM »
See it right here: https://youtu.be/OzeTZSEesXY?t=7s

Its all fun and game till AR-15s get involved. This is not an isolated incident either.
The gentleman in that video is exercising his constitutional rights of free speech and to bear arms.  Why should exercising those rights be isolated incidents?

I can only hope and guess that you are being sarcastic here former player.  The video is a textbook case for robbery.  Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take anything of value by force, threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear.

In the video the gentleman clearly i) took the property of another without permission ii) with the intent to permanently deprive iii) by force (he was holding a firearm are and kept repeating "what are you going to do about it... nothing".
I didn't see any robbery or intent to permanently deprive.  I would probably agree to criminal damage, based on the tearing sound.
There is no proof that the driver was still in earshot when the gun came out, and the gun was not pointed at anyone but held safely pointing down, so I can't agree to the "force" argument.

Was I being sarcastic?  The video referenced is the logical consequence of the constitutional rights so passionately defended by many in the US: people, including people you may not like, can have the right to carry guns in the street and have the right to shout whatever they like that is not a criminal threat.  If you defend those rights, you also have to defend the exercise of them as demonstrated in that video.

Watched the video and I don't know the gun laws in that location, so no comment on the weapon.  But I do not see theft and I do not see intent to kill the man. 

So yes, he is just being angry in this video.  If he moved towards another person with that gun and yelling threats, that is another story altogether.

Hopefully this kind of thing is uncommon, because it is dangerous, it is dangerous especially for the man holding the weapon, because his actions and intent could be easily misunderstood.

I stopped putting political bumper stickers on my vehicles years ago, and I will never do so again in my life, exactly because of this kind of situation.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2243 on: February 19, 2017, 07:54:23 AM »
Do any of you think that some of Trump's executive actions have been clearly unconstitutional? If so, I'm curious which ones. I've thought that some of them are borderline, but that none are just obviously an overreach. But I'm not sure I've looked carefully at them all. This is one of the main areas that concerned me about Trump since the campaign, during which he said he'd violate the constitution in this way if necessary.
I didnt vote for Trump, but that doesnt mean I dislike all of his actions.

The executive order stopping immigration is likely unclear mstitutinal for those with legal status that allows them to live here (green fatds etc.) But when it comes to these constitutional questions, I am no legal scholar. And neither is anyone  (well, most) here.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2244 on: February 19, 2017, 08:13:54 AM »
So... republicans have the Congress and the Presidency... shouldn't one impact of this be some fuckin' tax cuts? Where are my tax cuts. They always talk about tax cuts. Can we have some tax cuts?

It's only been a few weeks.

Yeah, but Trump has spent days talking about and signing orders on all sorts of other issues. I'd like a few days spend on him signing useless orders to instruct his staff to present a tax plan by the end of feb to congress.

I want to see that corp rate down to 15%!

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2245 on: February 19, 2017, 08:40:39 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2246 on: February 19, 2017, 09:08:40 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2247 on: February 19, 2017, 09:28:49 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 

Does a bear shit in the woods?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2248 on: February 19, 2017, 09:55:38 AM »
Will a Republican congress go along with massive tax cuts and huge new spending programs (infrastructure, wall)? 
If they do they are all talk and no action on fiscal responsibility.  Republicans always do one thing, balloon the deficit.
If there is one thing politicians have gotten away with over the last decade and a half, it's justifying deficit spending.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2249 on: February 19, 2017, 11:58:49 AM »
This is long, and could use an edit, but it explains some things about Trump's supporters and how we got here that I haven't seen explained anywhere else.

https://medium.com/@DaleBeran/4chan-the-skeleton-key-to-the-rise-of-trump-624e7cb798cb#.mrh2wqub2

That's a fascinating read.  Short version:  we're all being trolled.

Basically, he argues that in addition to the two primary Trump demographics (people nostalgic for the 50s and the corporatist onepercenters who recognize he's a fraud but still want short term profits) there is a third and larger group of supporters, consisting of disaffected young men who have embraced their own loserdom pepe-the-frog style and now celebrate the fact that the whole system is rigged.  He says this group of people thrives on misogyny (gamergate) and their epic fail status (mom's basement) and supports Trump as the embodiment of their hopeless condition, a symbol of all that is wrong with the world and a giant middle finger to the liberal ideals that might otherwise have saved them if they didn't feel so trapped.

I'm not sure he offers much in the way of solutions, but it's a perspective that certainly does explain a lot of different things in recent cultural history, all tied together neatly in a way that probably makes a lot of sense to you, if you (like me) spend too much time on the internet.

There's a little diversion toward the end about feminism.  These basement-dwelling self-proclaimed losers feel trapped, because they don't fit into the 1950s style ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a family and stability) or the 1960s/70s ideal of masculinity (wealth brings a playboy pad and lots of sex) or even the counterculture Dharma bum ideal of masculinity (you don't need wealth to be happy and have lots of sex).  They have completely failed with women IRL, and so now must blame women as the source of their problems.  This is why they attack "social justice warriors" and other perceived proponents of liberalism, which has attempted to deconstruct the ideal of masculinity and offer people validity regardless of their gender-binary choices.  Except to the pepe-the-frog crowd, this is just telling them that their problems don't exist.  They're so trapped in their own gender-norms that they can't see a way out, and now lash out blindly at everything including the very movements that are trying to help them (e.g Bernie Sanders).

There are a few other interesting ideas in that article, for anyone who wants to dig into them.  I'm still thinking about the proposed transition away from left/right politics to insider/outsider politics, which the alt-right seems to be winning right now.