Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 205642 times)

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2050 on: February 14, 2017, 10:31:51 PM »
Trump and his team are a symptom of our flawed system that's been corrupted over 100+ years of courts deciding that more and more constitutional rights belong to corporations. This corporate personhood took its final form in 2010 with Citizens United. Trump just happened to tap into the base that had been cultivated by the GOP noise machine, and co-opted it.

We are absolutely at a Paul Revere type moment in modern history.  If we allow our country to complacently stay the course for 4 years, adversaries like Russia will be looking to check our independence.  We can wait and hope that we aren't too far behind (after Trump makes all his deals and steals off into the night with whatever amount of money makes a guy like that happy) or we can start to demand transparency.  Democracy only works when the voters can make a clear choice.

Yep. We'd better get some decent options to choose from in 2018 and then in 2020. unfortunately our system is set up to produce shitty options. Corporate shill A from team red, Corporate shill B from team red, or once in a while - dude with NPD who was born with platinum spoon in his mouth and is willing to tell people what they want to hear to gratify his own ego and 24% of the voting population falls for his lies either fell for his lies or were comfortable with his behavior despite seeing it for what it was.

Yeah - we need to fix the system to claw back boring old competent governance.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2017, 10:43:50 PM by Malaysia41 »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2051 on: February 15, 2017, 07:29:01 AM »
Would somebody please help put the Michael Flynn/Russia scandal into context for me?

I understand that Flynn illegally spoke to Russia about sanctions approved by the Obama administration before DJT had been sworn in and before he had any authority to do so.  I understand that was very bad, possibly illegal and undermined the administration in power (Obama) at the time.

Where I am having trouble is weighing how bad this actually is for the various people involved (Not just Flynn, but also DJT, Pence, Senior WH staff, etc). I've seen phrases ranging from Treason and Impeachment to simply inappropriate or 'bone-headed'. I'm also unclear how much of the fallout is from the meeting itself vs Flynn allegedly lying about what was discussed (which was worse - the conversation(s) or the subsequent lies?  Had Flynn said outright in December that he spoke about future sanctions with Russia as the incoming NSA chief, would this be as big a deal?)

On a corruption scale of 1-10, where do the various components fit?
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Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2052 on: February 15, 2017, 07:38:09 AM »
We don't know yet what was said in the Flynn meetings with the Russian diplomat.

But there are more components to this story:

Trump knew the extent (and possibly content) of those conversations weeks ago.

Trump knew Flynn lied to the VP

Flynn+Russian Ambassador weren't the only conversations. There were many other conversations between Trump's election staff and Russian (agents/diplomats) -  and many other convos between Trump's close acquaintances and Russians (agents/diplomats).

Taken all together, it looks bad for Trump.  But hell - I've thought it's looked bad for Trump ever since he goofed on Fiorina's face.  Remember back then? Ah - simpler times.   
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 08:20:25 AM by Malaysia41 »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2053 on: February 15, 2017, 07:42:50 AM »
Cripes...has it been 4 years yet? This last month seems like forever.

Malaysia41

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2054 on: February 15, 2017, 08:28:52 AM »
On occasion I head over to Fox news to check out their take.

To them it's seems this Flynn affair is little more than bumps in a new administration.

Bill O'Reilly wrote it off in his spin zone as nothing more than a lack of organization. He sternly advised that they do better.

The lead headline on Fox news: "Flynn was probed by FBI over calls with Russian ambassador, official says"

Really? The lead story is that an interview happened? And then the story focuses on how dangerous it is to have leaks coming out - replete with experts clutching their pearls at the notion that someone would leak classified info from an intelligence agency! Didn't these geezers live through watergate?

No discussion of the fact that POTUS knew all about this for weeks. Little discussion of the content of the leaks - or the breadth of people involved in conversations with Russia.

And OTHER media is bias? This is straight up PROJECTION. The bias and projection are so blatant. But my mom and dad continue to tune in to Fox.  It kills me that they do.  I'm trying to keep my view at the 30k foot level - focusing on how we can dismantle this toxic privately funded two party system. A quick check-in with Fox freaking turns my stomach.

At least my dad agreed to call his rep to ask him to co-sponsor HR48(115th).  Love that guy. (my dad - not his rep).

(Sorry - I know the ranting about Fox is off-topic from the OP - but I just had to share).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 08:31:10 AM by Malaysia41 »
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2055 on: February 15, 2017, 08:37:47 AM »
I check Fox occasionally too.

Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks." When officials starts talking about the leaks instead of the huge fucking crime, it's almost a capitulation.

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2056 on: February 15, 2017, 08:51:59 AM »
I check Fox occasionally too.

Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks." When officials starts talking about the leaks instead of the huge fucking crime, it's almost a capitulation.

I think our utter inability to keep secrets is the underpinning of our democracy.
Don't get me wrong, I"m all for laws and practices calling for more transparency, but when it comes down to it Americans are just piss-poor at not gossiping.  And that's a really GOOD thing for our country, because eventually we learn stuff like this, and people wind up being held accountable.

Now if only we could keep our collective focus for more than a few.... oh look, something shiny!
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Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2057 on: February 15, 2017, 10:00:32 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2058 on: February 15, 2017, 10:02:42 AM »
Would somebody please help put the Michael Flynn/Russia scandal into context for me?

I understand that Flynn illegally spoke to Russia about sanctions approved by the Obama administration before DJT had been sworn in and before he had any authority to do so.  I understand that was very bad, possibly illegal and undermined the administration in power (Obama) at the time.

Where I am having trouble is weighing how bad this actually is for the various people involved (Not just Flynn, but also DJT, Pence, Senior WH staff, etc). I've seen phrases ranging from Treason and Impeachment to simply inappropriate or 'bone-headed'. I'm also unclear how much of the fallout is from the meeting itself vs Flynn allegedly lying about what was discussed (which was worse - the conversation(s) or the subsequent lies?  Had Flynn said outright in December that he spoke about future sanctions with Russia as the incoming NSA chief, would this be as big a deal?)

On a corruption scale of 1-10, where do the various components fit?

Since we don't know what was discussed, we can speculate.  Juxtaposed against news of Russia's violation of weapons proliferation, let's just assume that our country's incoming National Security Advisor said something like - "we are really sorry about all of the sanctions Obama put on you because of that unfounded, alleged election tampering.  We don't want to look fishy by repealing all of the sanctions right away, but maybe you could tell us if any of them are causing any undo hardship.  We've really appreciated your support and want to continue good relations."

Russia, knowing full well that they are about to add some weapons that they aren't supposed to be building says, 'well, just look the other way when you get in to office while we import a few innocuous things (you know, just some fuel and electronics).  We were struggling to get them in to our country under Obama, but since you show such good faith in discussing this with us'....

I could probably come up with even more damning conspiracy theories, but it's not like we're getting any transcripts or recordings of these National Security discussions with our oldest and most dangerous adversay.  Instead, we are told to keep looking the other way until Trump's administration can stop the truth from getting out.  The fact that Trump has to deny Russia conspiracy theories makes it all that much more credible.  I mean, why would he even waste the time mentioning it if it were completely unfounded?   

Edit to add - Even as an armchair conspiracy theorist, this new infomation about Trump being in communication with Russia helps to explain the very odd Trump Tweet last December about needing to restart the Nuclear Arms race.

Quote
The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 10:35:51 AM by EscapeVelocity2020 »
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2059 on: February 15, 2017, 10:03:05 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html
well that's nice... sometimes I don't mind losing :-)
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lemanfan

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2060 on: February 15, 2017, 10:17:07 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2061 on: February 15, 2017, 10:21:53 AM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2062 on: February 15, 2017, 10:31:30 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

JLee

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2063 on: February 15, 2017, 10:36:33 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2064 on: February 15, 2017, 10:40:17 AM »

It will be interesting to see how much this administration affects the U.S. travel industry.  Just did a quick search and it looks like there are many articles out there about it.  The theory is that the travel ban rhetoric,etc... may make foreigners statistically less likely to visit the U.S.. 


The combination of the travel ban rethoric and the invasive border control makes a lot of my friends here in Scandinavia to not even consider visiting the US right now:

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/02/a-nasa-engineer-is-required-to-unlock-his-phone-at-the-border/516489/

I know that I feel sort of the same way, even though I've visited once a year since 2008... I really do love travelling within the USA, and I get great treatment.  But...

I've read that US travel bookings from my corner of the world has declined between 25 and 50% the last few weeks.

Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/13/us/citizen-nasa-engineer-detained-at-border-trnd/

Technically, it appears this was legal and the implications are quite chilling:

https://medium.freecodecamp.com/ill-never-bring-my-phone-on-an-international-flight-again-neither-should-you-e9289cde0e5f#.6hbj08do0

The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Has any of this changed under Trump?  Constitutional rights have been under assault for quite some time (predating Obama).  If one of the 2 main parties had a candidate that cared about this stuff, they might have won.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2065 on: February 15, 2017, 10:43:22 AM »
The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Right, but they theoretically could detain you indefinitely at the border until you capitulate. I mean, the NASA guy could have held out longer sure, but who knows what that would have led to?

Per the ACLU:

https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

In practice, Border Patrol agents routinely ignore or misunderstand the limits of their legal authority in the course of individual stops, resulting in violations of the constitutional rights of innocent people. These problems are compounded by inadequate training for Border Patrol agents, a lack of oversight by CBP and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the consistent failure of CBP to hold agents accountable for abuse. Thus, although the 100-mile border zone is not literally "Constitution free," the U.S. government frequently acts like it is.

Depending on how the current administration chooses to view the ongoing/expanded operations of CBP/DHS, this could easily become more of a problem than it already is. @Midwest, not saying that Trump has noticeably worsened this, yet, although his rhetoric about immigration and the border begs that question for obvious reasons. And other countries are already doing this with intention (see the blog post above). I certainly hope we don't go down that path, but protecting your privacy is still generally a good idea.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2066 on: February 15, 2017, 10:46:33 AM »
...
I'll also join the betting game! I going to say 25 days! It'll be a wait and see approach as the rain continues this week, then damage needs to be assessed.


oh why not.... I'll say 14 days.  I think Trump has a poor hand here; California has the economy to stomach a $162MM hit, and Trump would loose more than he gains by withholding funding; CA has 14 GOP members, including one (McClintock-R) from the district where the Lake Oroville dam is. Imagine how pissed he'd be if Trump withheld relief money over a perceived grudge.

So he'd likely loose some support from his own party in congress while not gaining much leverage. That's my read anyhow.


I'll say 20 days, just to enter the game.

Sounds like Trump approved yesterday.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132767814.html

Hallelujah.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

Midwest

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2067 on: February 15, 2017, 10:47:46 AM »
The request is legal, but there is no obligation to comply.  Refusal to unlock a phone can't (legally) result in denial of entry to a US citizen or to someone with an established/appropriate visa.

Source: Customs & Border Protection buddy of mine - we had this discussion a couple of days ago.  He advised that, given probable cause, they could seize the device and apply for a search warrant.  Absent that, he said just lock the phone before you get to the actual crossing and if you're asked to unlock it, just say no.

Side note, "Customs and Border Patrol" is not a government agency.  So many articles are mentioning it..but..it's not a thing.

Right, but they theoretically could detain you indefinitely at the border until you capitulate. I mean, the NASA guy could have held out longer sure, but who knows what that would have led to?

Per the ACLU:

https://www.aclu.org/other/constitution-100-mile-border-zone

In practice, Border Patrol agents routinely ignore or misunderstand the limits of their legal authority in the course of individual stops, resulting in violations of the constitutional rights of innocent people. These problems are compounded by inadequate training for Border Patrol agents, a lack of oversight by CBP and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the consistent failure of CBP to hold agents accountable for abuse. Thus, although the 100-mile border zone is not literally "Constitution free," the U.S. government frequently acts like it is.

Depending on how the current administration chooses to view the ongoing/expanded operations of CBP/DHS, this could easily become more of a problem than it already is. @Midwest, not saying that Trump has noticeably worsened this, yet, although his rhetoric about immigration and the border begs that question for obvious reasons. And other countries are already doing this with intention (see the blog post above). I certainly hope we don't go down that path, but protecting your privacy is still generally a good idea.

Lagom - I'm not defending the situation.  We have too many laws and many of the constitutional checks and balances have been circumvented.  If either party would use this as an issue, the populace might vote for them.  In 2016, it appeared both candidates agreed that the current state of affairs was ok.

lemanfan

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2068 on: February 15, 2017, 10:50:49 AM »
Speaking of which, you might want to consider leaving your cell phone at home when traveling internationally. Sadly, the US (and we are not alone in this) has recently started detaining people without cause (or maybe just stepping up this behavior to its own citizens) and forcing them to give up their phone passwords before letting them into the country.


The ETSA form for us persons from the Visa Waiver countryes now asks for your social media profiles.  Still voluntary to fill out, though.

Info used to be in the devices, now even the border guards know it's all in the cloud. 


Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2069 on: February 15, 2017, 10:58:16 AM »
Lagom - I'm not defending the situation.  We have too many laws and many of the constitutional checks and balances have been circumvented.  If either party would use this as an issue, the populace might vote for them.  In 2016, it appeared both candidates agreed that the current state of affairs was ok.

No disagreement on my end.

The ETSA form for us persons from the Visa Waiver countryes now asks for your social media profiles.  Still voluntary to fill out, though.

Info used to be in the devices, now even the border guards know it's all in the cloud.

True, though your cell phone (assuming you have a smart phone) basically is the key to your entire life when unlocked, if you don't take precautions. They also can't know what social media services you use, so that gets trickier than just confiscating a phone. I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

lemanfan

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2070 on: February 15, 2017, 11:04:45 AM »
I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

I am paranoid and have started using cash again when I can. Which is actually getting harder here in Sweden.  And to live like I preach, I should stop using US-based e-mail, but I still have not given up my gmail. If you're not paranoid, you don't just know enough...  ;)

Given your forum name, I assume that you have your roots in my corner of the world?

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2071 on: February 15, 2017, 11:20:36 AM »
I know this sounds conspiracy theorish, but this is the slippery slope big brother stuff that can easily slide us into dystopia without the general populous even noticing. After all, if you've done nothing wrong what do you have to hide, amirite?

I am paranoid and have started using cash again when I can. Which is actually getting harder here in Sweden.  And to live like I preach, I should stop using US-based e-mail, but I still have not given up my gmail. If you're not paranoid, you don't just know enough...  ;)

Given your forum name, I assume that you have your roots in my corner of the world?

Yeah I have been way too lax with my own privacy, tbh, but I am finally starting to take it more seriously. Google security is pretty good, but I hear ya. At a minimum everyone should enable two factor authentication for their email. At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

Indeed, my mother's parents were both from Sweden, so I have a large extended family there. Swedes in general always struck me as unusually mustachian by default, and I love the implications of the word "lagom," which is why I used it as my forum name. I haven't been back in years, but really need to start planning another trip! Might leave my cell at home though ;)
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:22:47 AM by Lagom »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2072 on: February 15, 2017, 11:27:50 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2073 on: February 15, 2017, 11:43:09 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice. If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

This is true. I worked planning devices that snooped and forwarded packets to gov't servers. I had no formal security clearances so this stuff is a pretty wide-open secret. 

Yes - encrypt end to end.

If I don't post tomorrow, you'll know they've found me. Tell my family I love them.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2074 on: February 15, 2017, 11:43:48 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

Gmail has been using HTTPS since 2010: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/21/gmail_will_now_encrypt_all_of_the_traffic_between_google_servers_to_make.html

Of course, that doesn't help if the email server you're sending to is using HTTP.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2075 on: February 15, 2017, 11:44:27 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2076 on: February 15, 2017, 11:45:26 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

Gmail has been using HTTPS since 2010: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/21/gmail_will_now_encrypt_all_of_the_traffic_between_google_servers_to_make.html

Of course, that doesn't help if the email server you're sending to is using HTTP.

It doesn't help if there's a NSA server co-located with Google's servers.  As far as I know, mail servers also do not perform end-to-end encryption during transmission (but please let me know if the state of art has changed... wikipedia says each hop is typically encrypted, but if the middle hop is NSA, that again doesn't help.  There are also likely millions of older servers using plaintext SMTP)
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 11:47:41 AM by dragoncar »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2077 on: February 15, 2017, 11:46:45 AM »

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.



Yeah - it's why I'm not too worried. /s
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2078 on: February 15, 2017, 11:56:25 AM »
At the moment I trust Google not to give me up to the government, perhaps naively? :)

VERY naively.  The government monitors all traffic at internet backbones.  It doesn't have to hack your account, it already reads everything with the cooperation of all of the major infrastructure partners, and this is a widely known practice.  If it's not well encrypted end to end, Uncle Sam can read it.  They're automatically filtering for specific keywords and phrases, so it's not like there is some poor civil servant who has to personally read all of your emails.

Two factor authentication protects third parties from taking control of your account by resetting the password without your consent.  It doesn't do anything at all to protect your privacy.

There's nothing we can do about that, though, short of having any private conversations over encrypted lines (which I mostly do, and treat my email as possibly public).  But if you give them access to your phone data, they could then read those encrypted conversations directly if you have a copy or possibly get the keys after the fact.  I'd much rather make that impossible.  Even though I have "nothing to hide," I don't want to give anybody any excuses to hold me at the border.

The legal justification for this has been in place for a long time, but it seems that there is renewed vigor in using it.  I'd be interested in the stats on electronics searches in the Trump administration vs. Obama.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Obama sure did it a lot, but likely targeted suspects with existing suspicions from other agencies.  It seems now they are just targeting darkies.

Yes this is my point. I'm not saying my gmail account is impossible to penetrate (I am aware two-factor won't protect me from the NSA, but it's still a good idea). Frankly its already too late to do anything to stop a truly determined party from finding out everything they want about any of us with relative ease, but that doesn't mean I have to open the door and invite them in, nor does it appear Google is doing so, so far as I can tell.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 12:03:09 PM by Lagom »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2079 on: February 15, 2017, 11:58:33 AM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

...you can't get much more hypocritical than that... are you sure?

WHat about Trump railing against HRC's ties to Wall Street, only to have him appoint four former executives from Goldman Sachs into his administration and start rollback of Dodd-Frank?

What about his attacks on the Clinton Foundation as an institution connecting donors to positions of power, only to appoint the biggest donor ever to the Trump Foundation (Linda McMahon) to lead his Small Business Administration, and GOP meda-donor Besty DeVos to be Sec of Ed.?

What about berating HRC's use of a private server as blatantly disregarding national security only to hold an impromptu strategy session in front of dozens of other diners with staffers shining their phones over everything? (ok, that's really similar)

What about DJT's promises of protecting SSI and medicare, only to appoint longtime critic of SSI Tom Price to lead the HHS?

are those hypocricies less than him railing on leaks being "unAmerican" after encouraging Russia to hack the DNC?  ....because I honestly have no idea which is the most hypocritical.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2080 on: February 15, 2017, 12:07:59 PM »
Their lead is now, "'VERY UN-AMERICAN': Trump blasts US intel community over 'illegal' leaks."

Does anyone else remember when trump was so enthusiastic about "illegal leaks" that he literally asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails last July?  He publicly commended wikileaks for publishing stolen DNC documents. 

The man built his whole campaign on the very thing he is now calling "UnAmerican".  I don't think you can get much more hypocritical than that.

To which Trump responds, "Oh yeah? Then watch this."

I think calling it hypocritical is technically correct usage in the context of what was said, but misses the point. Saying it is hypocritical implies that the original statement was either believed or had substance as something to turn from. His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2081 on: February 15, 2017, 12:29:50 PM »
His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

I understand your point, but I think you don't give trump enough credit.

I think he accused Clinton of being too cozy with wall street because of his ties to wall street.  He promoted hatred of illegal immigrants because his resorts employ illegal immigrants.  He challenged Clinton's stamina and health because he's a frail 70  year old fat man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease. He promised to drain the swamp because he has spent his entire life living in the swamp.  He spoke up on behalf of regular working class Americans because he's an elitist who was born with a silver spoon.  He tried to be tough on crime because be has a long history of working with organized crime in the NYC construction industry.  He pilloried the Clinton foundation, despite its squeaky clean books, because his own foundation was perpetually being fined for illegal practices.  He's fawning over the military because he was a five time draft dodger.  He disparaged the Clinton's marriage because he cheats on all of his wives before divorcing them.

These actions are more than just hypocrisy, they're deliberate distractions.  He uses his own faults and weaknesses as a candidate and as a person as attacks against his opponents.  He's all offense, so he never has to play defense.  By creating these concerns about his enemies, he shields himself from valid criticisms about his own checkered past.  This is such a consistent pattern with him that it can't be a bumbling accident or nebulous hand waving.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2082 on: February 15, 2017, 12:55:05 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Quote
Based on users’ response to these posts, Cambridge Analytica was able to identify which of Trump’s messages were resonating and where. That information was also used to shape Trump’s campaign travel schedule. If 73 percent of targeted voters in Kent County, Mich. clicked on one of three articles about bringing back jobs? Schedule a Trump rally in Grand Rapids that focuses on economic recovery.

Quote
Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters. “In this election, dark posts were used to try to suppress the African-American vote,” wrote journalist and Open Society fellow McKenzie Funk in a New York Times editorial. “According to Bloomberg, the Trump campaign sent ads reminding certain selected black voters of Hillary Clinton’s infamous ‘super predator’ line. It targeted Miami’s Little Haiti neighborhood with messages about the Clinton Foundation’s troubles in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake.’”

Quote
Because dark posts are only visible to the targeted users, there’s no way for anyone outside of Analytica or the Trump campaign to track the content of these ads. In this case, there was no SEC oversight, no public scrutiny of Trump’s attack ads. Just the rapid-eye-movement of millions of individual users scanning their Facebook feeds.

I remember reading a few weeks ago that trump paid $100k around sept and ramped to $5million the next month. Paid off.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2083 on: February 15, 2017, 12:58:47 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2084 on: February 15, 2017, 01:22:18 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


At least use his whole answer (bold emphasis mine). We get it, Trump has a huge ego, but he does address the question.
http://www.npr.org/2017/02/15/514986341/watch-live-trump-netanyahu-hold-joint-press-conference-at-white-house

Quote
Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had -- 306 electoral college votes. We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there's no way to 270. And there's tremendous enthusiasm out there.

I will say that we are going to have peace in this country. We are going to stop crime in this country. We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on. There's a lot of bad things that have been taking place over a long period of time.

I think one of the reasons I won the election is we have a very, very divided nation, very divided. And hopefully, I'll be able to do something about that. And I, you know, it was something that was very important to me.


As far as people, Jewish people, so many friends; a daughter who happens to be here right now; a son-in-law, and three beautiful grandchildren. I think that you're going to see a lot different United States of America over the next three, four or eight years. I think a lot of good things are happening.

And you're going to see a lot of love. You're going to see a lot of love.

OK? Thank you.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2085 on: February 15, 2017, 01:31:16 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2086 on: February 15, 2017, 01:41:47 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2087 on: February 15, 2017, 01:43:33 PM »
His words are water and smoke, so it is unclear if there is enough there to really be truly hypocritical instead of simply lacking in substance.

I understand your point, but I think you don't give trump enough credit.

I think he accused Clinton of being too cozy with wall street because of his ties to wall street.  He promoted hatred of illegal immigrants because his resorts employ illegal immigrants.  He challenged Clinton's stamina and health because he's a frail 70  year old fat man with a poor diet and a history of venereal disease. He promised to drain the swamp because he has spent his entire life living in the swamp.  He spoke up on behalf of regular working class Americans because he's an elitist who was born with a silver spoon.  He tried to be tough on crime because be has a long history of working with organized crime in the NYC construction industry.  He pilloried the Clinton foundation, despite its squeaky clean books, because his own foundation was perpetually being fined for illegal practices.  He's fawning over the military because he was a five time draft dodger.  He disparaged the Clinton's marriage because he cheats on all of his wives before divorcing them.

These actions are more than just hypocrisy, they're deliberate distractions.  He uses his own faults and weaknesses as a candidate and as a person as attacks against his opponents.  He's all offense, so he never has to play defense.  By creating these concerns about his enemies, he shields himself from valid criticisms about his own checkered past.  This is such a consistent pattern with him that it can't be a bumbling accident or nebulous hand waving.

Yes, we agree completely. This is different than hypocrisy because he doesn't actually mean what he says. His words are simply a means to an end. He is a bullshitter.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2088 on: February 15, 2017, 01:50:37 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!

It was much the same when they took 4 questions when DJT met Canada's PM Trudeau.  One reporter asked whether Trump's rhetoric about the southern border extended to the Canadian boarder, and whether he was proposing small or large changes to boarder policies with Canada.  Trudeau's answer (in both languages) was basically that the US/Canada are strong allies, and while Canada might not always agree 100% with its ally on every issue, in the end both are stronger nad have created millions of jobs together by ensuring that goods and people can flow across the boarder in a free and safe manner.
Trump's responded about his electoral college win, about how Mexico was ripping us off, and then he listed eight different companies that (according to him) were shifting jobs back to the US since he took office.  He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2089 on: February 15, 2017, 02:00:21 PM »
This is beyond embarrassing, I just watched a clip from the press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu.  In it, an reporter (maybe Israeli, not sure) asked what Trump would say to those in the Jewish community who “believe and feel that your administration is playing with xenophobia and maybe racist tones.”

Trump replied - “Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had: 306 Electoral College votes,” Trump said. “We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there’s no way to 270.”  I'm hoping that the clip was tampered with in some way and it really didn't happen because otherwise, WTF!!!!


At least use his whole answer (bold emphasis mine). We get it, Trump has a huge ego, but he does address the question.
http://www.npr.org/2017/02/15/514986341/watch-live-trump-netanyahu-hold-joint-press-conference-at-white-house

Quote
Well, I just want to say that we are, you know, very honored by the victory that we had -- 306 electoral college votes. We were not supposed to crack 220. You know that, right? There was no way to 221, but then they said there's no way to 270. And there's tremendous enthusiasm out there.

I will say that we are going to have peace in this country. We are going to stop crime in this country. We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on. There's a lot of bad things that have been taking place over a long period of time.

I think one of the reasons I won the election is we have a very, very divided nation, very divided. And hopefully, I'll be able to do something about that. And I, you know, it was something that was very important to me.


As far as people, Jewish people, so many friends; a daughter who happens to be here right now; a son-in-law, and three beautiful grandchildren. I think that you're going to see a lot different United States of America over the next three, four or eight years. I think a lot of good things are happening.

And you're going to see a lot of love. You're going to see a lot of love.

OK? Thank you.

Respectfully, I do not see how that answers the question by repeating a bunch of talking points that sound idiotic.  "We are going to do everything within our power to stop long simmering racism and every other thing that's going on."  WTF is every other thing?   Because his daughter is Jewish is an answer?  It's embarrassing, he has no clue how to answer a question other than to talk about himself and spout rambling incoherent nonsense. 

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2090 on: February 15, 2017, 02:04:18 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

1) That link explicitly states that "To date, however, there’s no evidence that any engineers or executives currently working for Google or Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are doing anything to support Clinton’s campaign."

2) I would need to read more about what The Groundwork is doing specifically in comparison to Cambridge Analtytica before agreeing that they are the same, a conclusion you are taking as a matter of course.

3) This quote from the article I linked (which is unclear you read in its entirety or at all): "Political analysts in the Clinton campaign, who were basing their tactics on traditional polling methods, laughed when Trump scheduled campaign events in the so-called blue wall — a group of states that includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and has traditionally fallen to Democrats. But Cambridge Analytica saw they had an opening based on measured engagement with their Facebook posts. It was the small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that won Trump the election."

3a) And this one: "Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters," which is a whole nother level beyond standard political ads being sent to targeted audiences...

3b) And implies that even if they are trying to do the same thing and The Groundwork was working for Clinton (which your link implies they were not), The Groundwork clearly has worse algorithms and/or potentially is not as insidiously invasive of privacy and/or is not as unethical in their use. Not that I would condone them anyway because...

4) Even if I'm wrong and they are the same (yet to be proven) I find them equally objectionable, and so should you.

5) ETA - And then there is this quote: "Research by Woolley and his Oxford-based team in the lead-up to the 2016 election found that pro-Trump political messaging relied heavily on bots to spread fake news and discredit Hillary Clinton. By election day, Trump’s bots outnumbered hers, 5:1."

So there you go, she used them too, but at a far lower level which implies quite a lot about how she perceived them and what exactly her bots were doing. Still questionable though, depending on those exact details, to be sure.

ETA#2 - "Cambridge Analytica may be slated to secure more federal contracts and is likely about to begin managing White House digital communications for the rest of the Trump Administration. What new predictive-personality targeting becomes possible with potential access to data on U.S. voters from the IRS, Department of Homeland Security, or the NSA?"

I suspect you did not read the whole article at all (I'll admit I was only about halfway through when I first posted).
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 02:23:53 PM by Lagom »

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2091 on: February 15, 2017, 02:07:58 PM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2092 on: February 15, 2017, 04:09:28 PM »
What do you think is the over/under on the number of Trump senior advisers/cabinet secretaries that will be forced to resign or be impeached and removed?

If the current trend (1/month) continues, it'll be 48 in the first Trump term.

I think this Russia thing has legs only because many high ranking GOP senators are against warmer ties with Russia.
There's enough GOP hawks in congress who's hatred of Russia is far stronger than their allegiance to Trump.  I still wouldn't be surprised if the Kremlin 'leaks' some  kompromat on DJT or Tillerman (or both) in the next 6 months.

Assuming they have some komrpomat (which I suspect they do) - the reason they haven't released it yet is because the Trump administration has been doing such a bang-up job of shooting itself in the foot over nad over.  Putin will wait until DJT gets his feet under him and when it finally seems like they've finally bandaged over their self-inflicted wounds.

Well, two down in the first month (though Puzder wasn't confirmed so I guess he technically doesn't count). Nothing to do with Russia either.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2094 on: February 15, 2017, 08:51:31 PM »
He said many of those things because Cambridge analytics said he should

the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yikes, what an article. Today's challenge to those who still support Trump: read the above and share your thoughts. I am genuinely interested. Not so much in whether you agree about how this process helped Trump win (doubt you'll go there), but more on the overall implications of this use of personal data.

Other than the fact that Google is much more powerful, how is that materially different than this -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julian-assange-google-hillary-clinton_us_5633acc9e4b0631799123a7d

1) That link explicitly states that "To date, however, there’s no evidence that any engineers or executives currently working for Google or Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are doing anything to support Clinton’s campaign."

2) I would need to read more about what The Groundwork is doing specifically in comparison to Cambridge Analtytica before agreeing that they are the same, a conclusion you are taking as a matter of course.

3) This quote from the article I linked (which is unclear you read in its entirety or at all): "Political analysts in the Clinton campaign, who were basing their tactics on traditional polling methods, laughed when Trump scheduled campaign events in the so-called blue wall — a group of states that includes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and has traditionally fallen to Democrats. But Cambridge Analytica saw they had an opening based on measured engagement with their Facebook posts. It was the small margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that won Trump the election."

3a) And this one: "Dark posts were also used to depress voter turnout among key groups of democratic voters," which is a whole nother level beyond standard political ads being sent to targeted audiences...

3b) And implies that even if they are trying to do the same thing and The Groundwork was working for Clinton (which your link implies they were not), The Groundwork clearly has worse algorithms and/or potentially is not as insidiously invasive of privacy and/or is not as unethical in their use. Not that I would condone them anyway because...

4) Even if I'm wrong and they are the same (yet to be proven) I find them equally objectionable, and so should you.

5) ETA - And then there is this quote: "Research by Woolley and his Oxford-based team in the lead-up to the 2016 election found that pro-Trump political messaging relied heavily on bots to spread fake news and discredit Hillary Clinton. By election day, Trump’s bots outnumbered hers, 5:1."

So there you go, she used them too, but at a far lower level which implies quite a lot about how she perceived them and what exactly her bots were doing. Still questionable though, depending on those exact details, to be sure.

ETA#2 - "Cambridge Analytica may be slated to secure more federal contracts and is likely about to begin managing White House digital communications for the rest of the Trump Administration. What new predictive-personality targeting becomes possible with potential access to data on U.S. voters from the IRS, Department of Homeland Security, or the NSA?"

I suspect you did not read the whole article at all (I'll admit I was only about halfway through when I first posted).

Take all of what you just wrote, all of what you read in that article, and combine it with the fact that in 2013 the US repealed the propaganda ban that keeps the US from broadcasting propaganda domestically.

Quote
The restriction of these broadcasts was due to the Smith-Mundt Act, a long-standing piece of legislation that has been amended numerous times over the years, perhaps most consequentially by Arkansas Senator J. William Fulbright. In the 1970s, Fulbright was no friend of VOA and Radio Free Europe, and moved to restrict them from domestic distribution, saying they "should be given the opportunity to take their rightful place in the graveyard of Cold War relics." Fulbright’s amendment to Smith-Mundt was bolstered in 1985 by Nebraska Senator Edward Zorinsky, who argued that such "propaganda" should be kept out of America as to distinguish the U.S. "from the Soviet Union where domestic propaganda is a principal government activity."

keep in mind that

Quote
the Smith-Mundt Act never had anything to do with regulating the Pentagon, a fact that was misunderstood in media reports in the run-up to the passage of new Smith-Mundt reforms in January. ....  In fact, as amended in 1987, the act only covers portions of the State Department engaged in public diplomacy abroad (i.e. the public diplomacy section of the "R" bureau, and the Broadcasting Board of Governors.)

POTUS - a man who paid Cambridge Analytics $15 Million to enrage and/or suppress voters with fake news - is no longer restricted from projecting propaganda on our population. And who is heading up State now? Oh yeah, Rex Tillerson, a guy who harbored zero ethical qualms about bankrolling global warming denial campaigns.

I'm such a mix of negative emotions right now I don't even know where to begin on how this makes me feel.

And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 09:08:09 PM by Malaysia41 »
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Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2095 on: February 15, 2017, 08:57:52 PM »
EJ Dionne today:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/admit-it-trump-is-unfit-to-serve/2017/02/15/467d0bbe-f3be-11e6-8d72-263470bf0401_story.html?utm_term=.e02ed32821ac

It is going to be SO HARD to lay off the "I told you sos." Although I still hesitate to dream we'll have the opportunity. Of course there is also still the stark possibility that Pence is the real Manchurian candidate here. But as long as he keeps us out of war and doesn't completely torpedo our standing in the world I'll take the inevitable repressive social laws since those can just be rolled back in a couple years.

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2096 on: February 15, 2017, 08:59:09 PM »
And the worst part is that the vast majority of the voting population is unaware  or I imagine would be highly dismissive of these revelations - esp if they voted for Trump based on a series of clicks through paid advertising via facebook.

No one wants to admit they were duped. I knew this sort of stuff was going on but I was honestly unaware of just how huge the scope was. There is so much cool stuff Big Data can do for the world, but damn its dark side is troubling.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2097 on: February 15, 2017, 09:07:12 PM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.
Well, he did approve Keystone XL.... so there's that.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2098 on: February 16, 2017, 05:16:38 AM »
He effectively ignored any mention of Canada in his response about the Canadian border at a conference with Canadian Journalists with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau.
WTF.

Canadians don't vote.

Until the Canadian press starts to have some pull with American audiences, trump will openly and completely ignore Canada. 

Everything he says or tweets is designed to elicit a response from his supporters and enrage his enemies.  He doesn't seem to care about measuring the political impacts of his statements.  And he certainly doesn't care if any of it is true.
Well, he did approve Keystone XL.... so there's that.
To Sol's cheeky "Canadian's don't vote" - that skirted my point.  When Trump was asked about the Canadian border he ignored the question entirely and just listed a bunch of companies he supposedly had forced into 'great' deals.  But he (Sol) has a point that until US citizens care he can get away with it.  Why should Americans (including his base) care?  Because Canada is the US's biggest trading partner... not Mexico or China. If his base really gives a damn about refugees streaming across the boarder they ought to care that Canada has been letting in tens of thousands Syrian refugees, and unlike the rather armored and patrolled Mexican border the Canadian border is pretty darn porous and a hell of a lot longer.
Frankly, I"m amazed that DJT can keep the focus on Mexico, especially when Trudeau stood in the White House and renewed its commitment to bring in more Syrians and argued that the US Canada border must remain open to both jobs and people.

RE the Keystone XL - meh.  That oil was being shipped inefficiently by rail until prices cratered (and it will again soon) so the global environmental change of the pipeline will change very little.  The people who really loose here are the state and local governments. They take on all the risk of the pipeline with little long term benefit. Once again the GOP proves it no longer stands for states rights and limited federal government.
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dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2099 on: February 16, 2017, 08:06:23 AM »
Once again the GOP proves it no longer stands for states rights and limited federal government.

I think you misinterpret the GOP wanting to limit the federal government and enhance states rights.... they only want that when the Democrats are in charge.