Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 498003 times)

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7306
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #200 on: November 22, 2016, 05:43:31 PM »
Realistic impact of Trump's Presidency:

The neo-nazis alt-right will have a conference in DC blocks from the Holocaust museum. Their leader, Richard Spencer, will proclaim "Hail Trump!" and the attendees will give the Nazi salute (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_salute).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o6-bi3jlxk


There will be radio silence from Trump and his people about this.

His supporters, as well.

I'm no Trump supporter, but I would like to believe the heil Trump and nazi salute people are an emboldened fringe element. 

But we've seen so many people on these very pages claim that Trump is not racist that this sort of thing is absolutely relevant.  Even if you yourself don't think you are racist, you have to realize that some hardcore racists are thrilled about Trump's election because they think he is racist and that Americans voted for him because they are racist.  Remember that when you think of your minority friends and try to understand the unease they feel.

There is definitely an active resurgence of open racism in America today due to Trump.  You can pretend you don't support it, but you have to at least see it.  If you voted for him, this is at least partly on your shoulders.

I don't know what you want from Trump supporters.
I see that a bunch of racists such as the vile Alt-Right or KKK have cooked up in their minds that Trump was elected 'because' he was racist, and now they think they can come out of the shadows. I see that there are reports of petty race crimes... It's obvious that a lot of those people are the above demographic feeling emboldened, and I'm shocked by how brazen they are. I'm sadly not shocked that a significant number of these incidents were either Clinton supporters doing something 'ironically' or were outright made up. That doesn't deserve a pass either.

I see the things trump has actually said, and it's bad stuff. But I also find that it's not as black-and-white as "Trump called Mexican's rapists!" but rather, he said some things that have small elements of truth, are worded without the nuance needed to keep them from being taken as racist/bigoted. there's just enough plausible deniability for the "never Clinton" people to look past it. The Media seizes on lack of nuance to feed the narrative that he is a racist, and the vile people sieze on it to feel like they've got a buddy in the Whitehouse. I even think the poor wording was by design on Trumps part, and find it really shitty that he did it.

I voted for trump. To be fair - I live in a solidly blue state, mailed the ballot in 2 weeks before the election, and voted for trump mainly to undermine Clinton's 'mandate' when she 'inevitably' won... but I voted for trump. And I still think he will be less detrimental to this country in the long run.  I cast my vote knowing full well that Trump's election would create a real perception of doom for some people in minority groups. Expecting him to loose made that a lot easier, but I am truly sorry for the stress, but I do not believe the fears will be borne out.

For the record, I voted for Trump because he WILL drain the swamp... because he is the swamp. He is every newt (gingrich), orange goblin and slimy snail X10. He's the swamp so much, we'll pave over the thing and build a planned parenthood right on top of him. He will teach a new generation to distrust executive power, to see how an orange buffoon can abuse it. Clinton would have been one more step down the path to fascism. Not because she is one, no.. she would merely cement and continue the growth of executive and federal power. she would continue with the shady, behind the scenes corruption that's not-quite-a-scandal, so that someday, a fascist would find a nice seat with all the controls already built in. Trump might wind that kind of thing back.

I want you in the strongest possible terms to denounce the racism that many of his supporters seem to feel entitled to now spout. At every available opportunity. And to hold the candidate that you helped elect accountable for denouncing it, too.

As often as necessary.

Because if his supporters do not, there will be no curb on the racist violence committed in his name.

Is that clear enough?

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #201 on: November 22, 2016, 05:44:24 PM »

For the record, I voted for Trump because he WILL drain the swamp... because he is the swamp. He is every newt (gingrich), orange goblin and slimy snail X10. He's the swamp so much, we'll pave over the thing and build a planned parenthood right on top of him. He will teach a new generation to distrust executive power, to see how an orange buffoon can abuse it. Clinton would have been one more step down the path to fascism. Not because she is one, no.. she would merely cement and continue the growth of executive and federal power. she would continue with the shady, behind the scenes corruption that's not-quite-a-scandal, so that someday, a fascist would find a nice seat with all the controls already built in. Trump might wind that kind of thing back.

That's some 60 dimensional chess right there... would you have voted differently if you were in a swing state?

ncornilsen

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1047
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #202 on: November 22, 2016, 06:06:17 PM »

For the record, I voted for Trump because he WILL drain the swamp... because he is the swamp. He is every newt (gingrich), orange goblin and slimy snail X10. He's the swamp so much, we'll pave over the thing and build a planned parenthood right on top of him. He will teach a new generation to distrust executive power, to see how an orange buffoon can abuse it. Clinton would have been one more step down the path to fascism. Not because she is one, no.. she would merely cement and continue the growth of executive and federal power. she would continue with the shady, behind the scenes corruption that's not-quite-a-scandal, so that someday, a fascist would find a nice seat with all the controls already built in. Trump might wind that kind of thing back.

That's some 60 dimensional chess right there... would you have voted differently if you were in a swing state?

Let me clarify aomething... Trump won't wind those things back... others will do it as a reaction to him.

And yeah, probably. I didn't think he'd win.

Glenstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3493
  • Age: 94
  • Location: Upper left corner
  • FI(lean) working on the "RE"
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #203 on: November 22, 2016, 06:09:56 PM »

For the record, I voted for Trump because he WILL drain the swamp... because he is the swamp. He is every newt (gingrich), orange goblin and slimy snail X10. He's the swamp so much, we'll pave over the thing and build a planned parenthood right on top of him. He will teach a new generation to distrust executive power, to see how an orange buffoon can abuse it. Clinton would have been one more step down the path to fascism. Not because she is one, no.. she would merely cement and continue the growth of executive and federal power. she would continue with the shady, behind the scenes corruption that's not-quite-a-scandal, so that someday, a fascist would find a nice seat with all the controls already built in. Trump might wind that kind of thing back.

That's some 60 dimensional chess right there... would you have voted differently if you were in a swing state?

Let me clarify something... Trump won't wind those things back... others will do it as a reaction to him.


And yeah, probably. I didn't think he'd win.

Important clarification and I sincerely hope that is the case. But I also see many elected republicans unable to resist the appeal of holding all 3 branches of government and are correspondingly unwilling to take a principled stand against the statements and actions of Trump.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4928
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #204 on: November 22, 2016, 07:17:03 PM »
Realistic impact of Trump's Presidency:

The neo-nazis alt-right will have a conference in DC blocks from the Holocaust museum. Their leader, Richard Spencer, will proclaim "Hail Trump!" and the attendees will give the Nazi salute (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_salute).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o6-bi3jlxk


There will be radio silence from Trump and his people about this.

His supporters, as well.

I'm no Trump supporter, but I would like to believe the heil Trump and nazi salute people are an emboldened fringe element. 

But we've seen so many people on these very pages claim that Trump is not racist that this sort of thing is absolutely relevant.  Even if you yourself don't think you are racist, you have to realize that some hardcore racists are thrilled about Trump's election because they think he is racist and that Americans voted for him because they are racist.  Remember that when you think of your minority friends and try to understand the unease they feel.

There is definitely an active resurgence of open racism in America today due to Trump.  You can pretend you don't support it, but you have to at least see it.  If you voted for him, this is at least partly on your shoulders.

I don't know what you want from Trump supporters.
I see that a bunch of racists such as the vile Alt-Right or KKK have cooked up in their minds that Trump was elected 'because' he was racist, and now they think they can come out of the shadows. I see that there are reports of petty race crimes... It's obvious that a lot of those people are the above demographic feeling emboldened, and I'm shocked by how brazen they are. I'm sadly not shocked that a significant number of these incidents were either Clinton supporters doing something 'ironically' or were outright made up. That doesn't deserve a pass either.

I see the things trump has actually said, and it's bad stuff. But I also find that it's not as black-and-white as "Trump called Mexican's rapists!" but rather, he said some things that have small elements of truth, are worded without the nuance needed to keep them from being taken as racist/bigoted. there's just enough plausible deniability for the "never Clinton" people to look past it. The Media seizes on lack of nuance to feed the narrative that he is a racist, and the vile people sieze on it to feel like they've got a buddy in the Whitehouse. I even think the poor wording was by design on Trumps part, and find it really shitty that he did it.

I voted for trump. To be fair - I live in a solidly blue state, mailed the ballot in 2 weeks before the election, and voted for trump mainly to undermine Clinton's 'mandate' when she 'inevitably' won... but I voted for trump. And I still think he will be less detrimental to this country in the long run.  I cast my vote knowing full well that Trump's election would create a real perception of doom for some people in minority groups. Expecting him to loose made that a lot easier, but I am truly sorry for the stress, but I do not believe the fears will be borne out.

For the record, I voted for Trump because he WILL drain the swamp... because he is the swamp. He is every newt (gingrich), orange goblin and slimy snail X10. He's the swamp so much, we'll pave over the thing and build a planned parenthood right on top of him. He will teach a new generation to distrust executive power, to see how an orange buffoon can abuse it. Clinton would have been one more step down the path to fascism. Not because she is one, no.. she would merely cement and continue the growth of executive and federal power. she would continue with the shady, behind the scenes corruption that's not-quite-a-scandal, so that someday, a fascist would find a nice seat with all the controls already built in. Trump might wind that kind of thing back.

I want you in the strongest possible terms to denounce the racism that many of his supporters seem to feel entitled to now spout. At every available opportunity. And to hold the candidate that you helped elect accountable for denouncing it, too.

As often as necessary.

Because if his supporters do not, there will be no curb on the racist violence committed in his name.

Is that clear enough?
I want you to stand up for women who are sexually harassed and assaulted.  I want you to learn around rape culture, and about rapists (Google Dr. David Lasik) and stand up and tell others that behaviors that contribute to assaults need to stop.  And I'd also like to know why the fact that Trump admitted, braggingly about sexually assaulting women was not enough for you not to vote him.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #205 on: November 23, 2016, 04:23:28 AM »
Realistic impact of Trump's Presidency:

The neo-nazis alt-right will have a conference in DC blocks from the Holocaust museum. Their leader, Richard Spencer, will proclaim "Hail Trump!" and the attendees will give the Nazi salute (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_salute).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o6-bi3jlxk

There will be radio silence from Trump and his people about this.

His supporters, as well
.
Not strictly correct. He denounced them publically yesterday (In his peculiar, often-misconstrued-yet-oddly-direct Trump way.)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/donald-trump-disavow-groups-new-york-times/index.html

I don't really understand the upset about a protected speech gathering? It reminds me of the "They're gonna build a mosque near Ground Zero!!!!" hysteria.

« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 04:31:49 AM by Metric Mouse »

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23048
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #206 on: November 23, 2016, 06:06:03 AM »
Not strictly correct. He denounced them publically yesterday (In his peculiar, often-misconstrued-yet-oddly-direct Trump way.)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/donald-trump-disavow-groups-new-york-times/index.html

I don't really understand the upset about a protected speech gathering? It reminds me of the "They're gonna build a mosque near Ground Zero!!!!" hysteria.

You see a peaceful group trying to build a place of worship to practice their religion as being no different than a hate group dedicated to a message of racial superiority and bigotry gathering to praise the next president for supporting their cause?  Really?

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #207 on: November 23, 2016, 06:10:22 AM »
Not strictly correct. He denounced them publically yesterday (In his peculiar, often-misconstrued-yet-oddly-direct Trump way.)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/22/politics/donald-trump-disavow-groups-new-york-times/index.html

I don't really understand the upset about a protected speech gathering? It reminds me of the "They're gonna build a mosque near Ground Zero!!!!" hysteria.

You see a peaceful group trying to build a place of worship to practice their religion as being no different than a hate group dedicated to a message of racial superiority and bigotry gathering to praise the next president for supporting their cause?  Really?

Of course not. I see the overblown reaction to these actions as similar.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #208 on: November 23, 2016, 06:24:57 PM »
Remember back in the 90s when supremacists would go form militia-communes out in Montana to play pretend "ethno-state"? That was so much more pleasant than them wanting to run the government.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #209 on: November 23, 2016, 06:30:12 PM »
Remember back in the 90s when supremacists would go form militia-communes out in Montana to play pretend "ethno-state"? That was so much more pleasant than them wanting to run the government.

Unless you happened to live near one of them, then it kind of sucked.

Abe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2647
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #210 on: November 23, 2016, 06:49:11 PM »
That's true. I lived in a KKK-run county during the 90s; was just being facetious. Still better than them thinking they have a chance of them running the nation's intelligence apparatus and so on.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #211 on: November 23, 2016, 07:31:34 PM »
Still better than them thinking they have a chance of them running the nation's intelligence apparatus and so on.

Was that statement an optimistic assertion that they won't actually run the nation's intelligence apparatus? 

TheOldestYoungMan

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 778
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #212 on: November 23, 2016, 07:47:46 PM »

I want you to stand up for women who are sexually harassed and assaulted.  I want you to learn around rape culture, and about rapists (Google Dr. David Lasik) and stand up and tell others that behaviors that contribute to assaults need to stop.  And I'd also like to know why the fact that Trump admitted, braggingly about sexually assaulting women was not enough for you not to vote him.

Well, if they weren't going to vote third party (and who would amirite?  waste of your vote!) then they might have looked at HRC's support of a serial harasser of women, of her failure to denounce a known serial harasser of women, of her active participation in intimidation of women trying to speak up about harassment of women, of her bragging about defending an actual rapist to the point where he escaped punishment, and then compared that to Trump talking about how when you're rich, women will let you touch them, is talking vs. doing.  Her attacking him on this debates was called out as the height of hypocrisy.  It was a big ole pitch in the dirt and she couldn't help swinging at it.  I get that she doesn't understand how people perceive her on this issue, same as Trump doesn't get it.  That's the problem with people who fundamentally don't respect women.

And then they might have just not voted at all, or come to the conclusion that on this particular issue both candidates suck so look at other issues.  When life gives you shit, you just uh...you just uh..make shit-ade.

It should have been a slam dunk disqualifier for Trump.  I don't think there's any other candidate where that tape wouldn't have tanked the election.  Except that his opponent was HRC, and so there's no good choice.  There's just different styles of bad.

BuffaloStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1282
  • Location: The boring middle accumulation phase
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #213 on: November 23, 2016, 09:32:29 PM »
When life gives you shit, you just uh...you just uh..make shit-ade.

I read that similar to this:

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #214 on: November 24, 2016, 02:02:42 AM »
To answer OP's question: Autocratic Kleptocracy.

Sorry to know what that means now. All the BS is distraction. "Drain the Swamp" indeed. I would love for Trump to prove me wrong however, I have seen no news that makes me feel good to be right.

Thought this was interesting to share

http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-23/navigating-post-truth-politics-russia-and-america

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #215 on: November 24, 2016, 05:02:42 AM »
To answer OP's question: Autocratic Kleptocracy.

Sorry to know what that means now. All the BS is distraction. "Drain the Swamp" indeed. I would love for Trump to prove me wrong however, I have seen no news that makes me feel good to be right.

Thought this was interesting to share

http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-11-23/navigating-post-truth-politics-russia-and-america

That was a pretty terrible article. Not only is the subject's view severely slanted, it's also full of misinformation. Whether the PeOTUS is lying through his teeth or not, Trump has walked back almost all of his most divisive campaign rhetoric and has struck a markedly different tone than when he was campaigning. This doesn't excuse him, or imply that he won't try to overstep his authority, or continue to use misinformation to achieve his goals, but to compare his family to the mafia and state that this shows he'll be bad in the same ways that Putin is bad is rather shallow and misguided, in my opinion.

I think the strangest thing one can do, at this point, is assume that they can predict Donald Trump's behavior from a distance.

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 40
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #216 on: November 24, 2016, 10:25:44 AM »
Trump's "base" is mad Romney is up for consideration as Secretary of State:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/24/politics/kellyanne-conway-romney-tweets/index.html

Indeed, why would we want a single person that is not an uber-extremist (yet ironically, still an insider but we don't talk about that) serve in his administration? The horror of it. Trump sure is going against his "mandate." God forbid he make a single not completely horrifying choice. Sigh...

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #217 on: November 25, 2016, 10:16:30 AM »
That was a pretty terrible article. Not only is the subject's view severely slanted, it's also full of misinformation. Whether the PeOTUS is lying through his teeth or not, Trump has walked back almost all of his most divisive campaign rhetoric and has struck a markedly different tone than when he was campaigning. This doesn't excuse him, or imply that he won't try to overstep his authority, or continue to use misinformation to achieve his goals, but to compare his family to the mafia and state that this shows he'll be bad in the same ways that Putin is bad is rather shallow and misguided, in my opinion.

I think the strangest thing one can do, at this point, is assume that they can predict Donald Trump's behavior from a distance.

The article was a summary of the 6:04 radio program. Hoping your listened to that interview, it goes with your post. I can't speak to the mafia statement as I have not read Hungarian sociologist Bálint Magya's work, but the author speaking lays it out in the clip.

"Power associated as a source of enrichment, personal affirmation and domination." That sounds about right to me.

rocketpj

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 963
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #218 on: November 25, 2016, 11:54:57 AM »
If you are wanting a model for what Trump will do in his first year you could probably look at Brazil. 

- Massive and likely irreversible selloff of public assets, as fast as possible, with as much as possible being diverted towards Trump's people.  If not directly then indirectly (think a 40 year booking at one of his hotels, paid in advance).

- Open warfare with the media who dare to report on them.

- Massive and probably irreversible attack on science and evidence in general.

- Worst case, appointment of cronies to the SC, which will in turn protect him from any liability for the above.

Don't underestimate his depravity.  He may drain the swamp, but only to build a huge golf course for himself.

Silverado

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 169
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #219 on: November 25, 2016, 12:09:32 PM »
If you are wanting a model for what Trump will do in his first year you could probably look at Brazil. 

- Massive and likely irreversible selloff of public assets, as fast as possible, with as much as possible being diverted towards Trump's people.  If not directly then indirectly (think a 40 year booking at one of his hotels, paid in advance).

- Open warfare with the media who dare to report on them.

- Massive and probably irreversible attack on science and evidence in general.

- Worst case, appointment of cronies to the SC, which will in turn protect him from any liability for the above.

Don't underestimate his depravity.  He may drain the swamp, but only to build a huge golf course for himself.

Just to be clear, we can check back in with you late January 2018 and see how your model holds up, right? I assume you are OK with that sort of integrity check. Or are you not willing to own that model?

Ditto for all these threads, both pro and con. Feel free to let us know how long you need to prove your viewpoint. You have to tell us now how long, you don't get to choose your timing based on actions. So many people are convinced x or y is going to happen, put it out for an internet peer review.

If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.


accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #220 on: November 25, 2016, 02:21:47 PM »
If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I think most people here would love to be proved wrong by a Trump presidency. The name calling doesn't help with the discussion though.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #221 on: November 25, 2016, 03:00:34 PM »
Feel free to let us know how long you need to prove your viewpoint. You have to tell us now how long, you don't get to choose your timing based on actions. So many people are convinced x or y is going to happen, put it out for an internet peer review.

You mean just like all those red states did with "Obama is going to take our guns!"?

Yea, didn't exactly pan out that way, despite all of the wailing about the end of western civilization when he got elected.

The difference between then and now, as I see it, is that Obama never even claimed he was going to do all of the things that conservative radio warned people would result if he got elected, while Trump is openly promising to do things that everyone is worried about.  It's not scaremongering when you quote what Trump openly proclaims.

rocketpj

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 963
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #222 on: November 25, 2016, 03:03:02 PM »
If you are wanting a model for what Trump will do in his first year you could probably look at Brazil. 

- Massive and likely irreversible selloff of public assets, as fast as possible, with as much as possible being diverted towards Trump's people.  If not directly then indirectly (think a 40 year booking at one of his hotels, paid in advance).

- Open warfare with the media who dare to report on them.

- Massive and probably irreversible attack on science and evidence in general.

- Worst case, appointment of cronies to the SC, which will in turn protect him from any liability for the above.

Don't underestimate his depravity.  He may drain the swamp, but only to build a huge golf course for himself.

Just to be clear, we can check back in with you late January 2018 and see how your model holds up, right? I assume you are OK with that sort of integrity check. Or are you not willing to own that model?

Ditto for all these threads, both pro and con. Feel free to let us know how long you need to prove your viewpoint. You have to tell us now how long, you don't get to choose your timing based on actions. So many people are convinced x or y is going to happen, put it out for an internet peer review.

If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I would dearly love to be proven wrong.  If I am wrong I will be delighted.  Believe it or not, my statements weren't about winning an internet argument.

So I will thank you for not projecting whatever fantasy of unaccountability you seem to have onto me.  I expect a number of bad things to happen to your country with a Trump presidency.  I would love to be wrong.  I don't think I will be, unfortunately.

Generally I think that when someone says they intend to do something terrible, we should believe them.

Silverado

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 169
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #223 on: November 25, 2016, 03:16:50 PM »
If you are wanting a model for what Trump will do in his first year you could probably look at Brazil. 

- Massive and likely irreversible selloff of public assets, as fast as possible, with as much as possible being diverted towards Trump's people.  If not directly then indirectly (think a 40 year booking at one of his hotels, paid in advance).

- Open warfare with the media who dare to report on them.

- Massive and probably irreversible attack on science and evidence in general.

- Worst case, appointment of cronies to the SC, which will in turn protect him from any liability for the above.

Don't underestimate his depravity.  He may drain the swamp, but only to build a huge golf course for himself.

Just to be clear, we can check back in with you late January 2018 and see how your model holds up, right? I assume you are OK with that sort of integrity check. Or are you not willing to own that model?

Ditto for all these threads, both pro and con. Feel free to let us know how long you need to prove your viewpoint. You have to tell us now how long, you don't get to choose your timing based on actions. So many people are convinced x or y is going to happen, put it out for an internet peer review.

If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I would dearly love to be proven wrong.  If I am wrong I will be delighted.  Believe it or not, my statements weren't about winning an internet argument.

So I will thank you for not projecting whatever fantasy of unaccountability you seem to have onto me.  I expect a number of bad things to happen to your country with a Trump presidency.  I would love to be wrong.  I don't think I will be, unfortunately.

Generally I think that when someone says they intend to do something terrible, we should believe them.

Not fantasy. How long will it take for the terrible things to happen? Hoping to be wrong is not the same as admitting to be wrong should the doomsday not come.

I said the same thing to some anti obama folks. They came in saying they were going to lose their 401k accounts shortly after 2008 election. Like sol and the guns, still waiting, but they won't admit to being wrong. Still a couple months to go i guess.

I firmly believe accountability is a big part of integrity, and politics need more of it. So I ask about it sometimes.

Silverado

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 169
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #224 on: November 25, 2016, 03:21:45 PM »
If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I think most people here would love to be proved wrong by a Trump presidency. The name calling doesn't help with the discussion though.

I hope I am calling no one names. If the shoe fits, you are a piece of shit and I will not apologize. I hope no shoe fits, and that nothing too bad happens in the next few years. I just want to know at what point both sides have to check the results and admit their rights and wrongs.

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 40
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #225 on: November 25, 2016, 03:22:32 PM »
Bad things are already happening in this instance. Trump's appointments have been almost universally terrible. He has explicitly stated he will delegate an unusual amount of authority and is now stocking his cabinet with creationists, climate change deniers, white nationalists, anti public school activists, and hawks that make HRC look like a hippy. Yes, they technically haven't been able to enact any policy yet, but they represent much stronger evidence that bad things will come to pass than anything Obama did in the same timeframe.

Plus, you know, Trump has actually said he's going to do horrible things. Might have been a campaign tactic, but Obama's election is not remotely comparable so far as the amount of actual evidence that was used to infer a probable outcome. Would still very gladly admit I'm wrong if somehow every one of the extremists that will end up in control of the country turn against their lengthy histories and actually effect positive change, of course.

wenchsenior

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3779
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #226 on: November 25, 2016, 04:33:53 PM »
If you are not open to a check and be willing to admit you are wrong, well, you suck.

I think most people here would love to be proved wrong by a Trump presidency. The name calling doesn't help with the discussion though.

I would be beyond thrilled to be wrong and happy to broadcast it. I've already humbled myself to the handful of people on this forum (some no longer here) who called this election correctly.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #227 on: November 25, 2016, 04:48:01 PM »
you are a piece of shit and I will not apologize.

Classic.

Donald Trump would be proud.  "I'm not saying you're a piece of shit.  I would never say that, because it wouldn't be proper.  But some people are saying you're a huge piece of shit.  I don't say that, but everyone knows that you're a huge piece of shit."

24 hours later...  "I never said he was a piece of shit, you're quoting me out of context.  Some other people have said that he's a piece of shit, but not me.  It's not me saying that, what a shitty thing for him to say, attacking me like that.  Only a real piece of shit would say that."

Silverado

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 169
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #228 on: November 25, 2016, 07:14:53 PM »
you are a piece of shit and I will not apologize.

Classic.

Donald Trump would be proud.  "I'm not saying you're a piece of shit.  I would never say that, because it wouldn't be proper.  But some people are saying you're a huge piece of shit.  I don't say that, but everyone knows that you're a huge piece of shit."

24 hours later...  "I never said he was a piece of shit, you're quoting me out of context.  Some other people have said that he's a piece of shit, but not me.  It's not me saying that, what a shitty thing for him to say, attacking me like that.  Only a real piece of shit would say that."

I'll be clearer. If you are convinced that x will happen, and x does not happen, and you sidestep, backpedal, deny, etc., you are a 'pick your disparaging descriptive word'. That is my only point. And, if x does happen, please, post and say 'damn it, I was right, this sucks'. Ditto for the opposite of those.

One small example is Chuck Todd. Last November or so he said on national tv, 'well, that will do it for trump, watch next week he will fade away'. I never heard him say 'wow, did I screw that up. You'd think someone who does this for a living would be better than that'. I never heard that. Others have, and I respect that. Have integrity, that is my desire. I am fine with no one caring about my desire, but you should be true to yourself.

BudgetSlasher

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1212
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #229 on: November 25, 2016, 07:19:54 PM »
The guy has a huge ego and a thin skin.  Add in his lack of world knowledge - and we'll see what mess he makes of things shortly.

I think I already mentioned in this or another thread that Professor Allan Lichtman, who developed a methodology for accurately predicting presidential winners every single time over the last 3 or 4 decades, correctly picked Trump to win when every other poll and pundit (including the hallowed Nate Silver) and indicator said Clinton would win. I laughed at it at the time, thinking "Well dude, sorry your methodology is going to suffer its first loss in 40 years." He also predicted Trump would be impeached by his own Republican party within about 2 years. Now I've tried not to hang too much hope on this, but I actually can see it happening. Not that a Pence presidency would be any fun, but it would at least be about the best Schadenfreude ever to watch Trump go down in disgrace.

I agree I would not put too much faith in that prediction.

He predicted a Trump win using a method that has accurately predict many election cycles and he predicted Trump would be impeached based not on his system, but on his gut; there is a big difference between the two.

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #230 on: November 25, 2016, 08:13:35 PM »
So in January of 2018 do we need to say we're wrong if Trump decides not to accomplish the bad things he said he was going to do, or only if he tried to accomplish them, but they didn't happen?

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7372
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #231 on: November 25, 2016, 11:26:52 PM »

If you are wanting a model for what Trump will do in his first year you could probably look at Brazil. 

- Massive and likely irreversible selloff of public assets, as fast as possible, with as much as possible being diverted towards Trump's people.  If not directly then indirectly (think a 40 year booking at one of his hotels, paid in advance).

- Open warfare with the media who dare to report on them.

- Massive and probably irreversible attack on science and evidence in general.

- Worst case, appointment of cronies to the SC, which will in turn protect him from any liability for the above.

Don't underestimate his depravity.  He may drain the swamp, but only to build a huge golf course for himself.

Nobody believed Copernicus. But the earth still went on revolving around the sun.

Even if Trump attacks science, it doesn't stop reality from being true, no matter which way it is spun.

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #232 on: November 26, 2016, 04:09:49 AM »
Even if Trump attacks science, it doesn't stop reality from being true, no matter which way it is spun.

Very true however, funding for research matters if we want to be globally competitive.

Silverado

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 169
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #233 on: November 26, 2016, 04:29:40 AM »
Even if Trump attacks science, it doesn't stop reality from being true, no matter which way it is spun.

Very true however, funding for research matters if we want to be globally competitive.

Yeah, that was my first thought also as to a possible impact. But how much can the administration influence  funding? I am too lazy to go research it, but I'd guess enough for sure that people in some areas would feel it. the problem would be we could get behind and not (as a nation) even realize it. Sort of analogous to Kodak. i could imagine some meeting a long time ago where a decision to not fund a project on digital media felt small and fine at the time.


Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #234 on: November 26, 2016, 04:34:29 AM »
So in January of 2018 do we need to say we're wrong if Trump decides not to accomplish the bad things he said he was going to do, or only if he tried to accomplish them, but they didn't happen?

If 2018 is the deadline, yes. Then we will start a check -in thread where everyone who thought Trump was going to xrash the economy and flood Miami and give everyone asthma can say "I was wrong. Big league wrong."*

 I would argue for Q3 2019 before passing judgment, seeing as how slow Congress has been at work lately. But that's purely a gut reaction.

*Or whatever the National Trump Re-education center curriculum approves . :)

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #235 on: November 26, 2016, 07:32:38 AM »
Feel free to let us know how long you need to prove your viewpoint. You have to tell us now how long, you don't get to choose your timing based on actions. So many people are convinced x or y is going to happen, put it out for an internet peer review.

You mean just like all those red states did with "Obama is going to take our guns!"?

Not to totally derail the thread, but it's not as if Obama didnt try different ways to attack gun rights. The m855 ammo ban was not confiscation of all the guns, but it was a pretty blatant, science denying attempt to attack the availability of a wide swath of firearms.

The fact that huge numbers of people stood up for their rights against a government that they felt was doing wrong and stopped said government action from occurring  doesn't mean the government wasn't doing wrong.   Just because there were no riots or school walk outs or looted buildings or marches or protests at govenrment buildings doesn't mean that people didn't stand up for what they believed in, against a government they felt was wrong. Their tactics also happened to be effective at achieveing their stated goal.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 03:39:03 PM by Metric Mouse »

radram

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 956
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #236 on: November 26, 2016, 09:07:39 AM »
you are a piece of shit and I will not apologize.

Classic.

Donald Trump would be proud.  "I'm not saying you're a piece of shit.  I would never say that, because it wouldn't be proper.  But some people are saying you're a huge piece of shit.  I don't say that, but everyone knows that you're a huge piece of shit."

24 hours later...  "I never said he was a piece of shit, you're quoting me out of context.  Some other people have said that he's a piece of shit, but not me.  It's not me saying that, what a shitty thing for him to say, attacking me like that.  Only a real piece of shit would say that."

I'll be clearer. If you are convinced that x will happen, and x does not happen, and you sidestep, backpedal, deny, etc., you are a 'pick your disparaging descriptive word'. That is my only point. And, if x does happen, please, post and say 'damn it, I was right, this sucks'. Ditto for the opposite of those.

One small example is Chuck Todd. Last November or so he said on national tv, 'well, that will do it for trump, watch next week he will fade away'. I never heard him say 'wow, did I screw that up. You'd think someone who does this for a living would be better than that'. I never heard that. Others have, and I respect that. Have integrity, that is my desire. I am fine with no one caring about my desire, but you should be true to yourself.

Silverado,
This sounds like fun, so I will play.

Regarding ACA:
Full repeal of ACA with no replace gets discussed, debated, passed through the house and senate, and placed on Trumps desk. Just as discussed (in the 60 minutes article from a few weeks back), Trump Veto's the bill.

They start over with a repeal and replace plan that Trump signs. 

No mandate, 26 year-olds on parents plan, no denial of pre-existing conditions. There is now a catastrophic option, covering nothing until some large out of pocket max (lets say $25,000). This new option will cost about $2,000 less per year as the current bronze plans but will cover nothing unless you have a serious health event.  There will no longer be ACA credits for health insurance, but there will be some sort of off-set to help make the catastrophic plan affordable to the poor. Prevention services will be reduced to help contain costs.  Healthy people will love the new system. Sick people will not like it as much.

If you are unhealthy you will pay more or not get services, if you are well you will pay less. Many will think that is exactly the way it ought to be. Many will think we are abandoning our sick.

My family will pay more and utilize less services.

Regarding Medicare:
They go with the Ryan Plan voucher idea. Saves government money.  Costs people more. It might be a real problem, but not for 25 years. I hope my goggle reminder goes off in 2041 so I can come back here and gloat :)

Regarding Inheritance:
Full repeal of any taxes for inheritance. This will not effect 99.98% of current estates. The revenue difference will be offset by a combination of deficit increases and less services.

Regarding Taxes
Rates changes much like Trump has been discussing. Increased deficits and decreasing spending on services to offset the tax revenue decrease.

Regarding Military Spending
The largest percentage increase in modern history. All deficit driven.

Regarding infrastructure
Almost nothing changes.   No money. All improvements are deficit driven.

Overall, usual "don't tax and spend a little less" deficit increasing policies.  4 years from now, increased inflation, increased annual deficits, and a greater wealth gap. Trump falls short of his campaign promise to eliminate the debt(not deficit) in 10 years by $40 trillion, because congress does not go along with his idea to default on our debt.

If he runs in 2020, he wins again under the "give my ideas a chance" mantra.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8723
  • Location: Avalon
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #237 on: November 26, 2016, 10:34:58 AM »
Trump falls short of his campaign promise to eliminate the debt(not deficit) in 10 years by $40 trillion, because congress does not go along with his idea to default on our debt.
I thought Amendment 14 would prevent the USA from defaulting on its debt, which means that neither Trump nor Congress has any say in the matter -  unless there is a further constitutional amendment.

Gin1984

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4928
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #238 on: November 26, 2016, 10:54:28 AM »
Even if Trump attacks science, it doesn't stop reality from being true, no matter which way it is spun.

Very true however, funding for research matters if we want to be globally competitive.

Yeah, that was my first thought also as to a possible impact. But how much can the administration influence  funding? I am too lazy to go research it, but I'd guess enough for sure that people in some areas would feel it. the problem would be we could get behind and not (as a nation) even realize it. Sort of analogous to Kodak. i could imagine some meeting a long time ago where a decision to not fund a project on digital media felt small and fine at the time.
The administration has a huge impact, the only ones with more are Congress and they have already cut grants to the bone.  We are losing great researchers to industry, other countries and other fields and we can't afford to keep losing at this rate.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #239 on: November 26, 2016, 12:06:40 PM »
We are losing great researchers to industry, other countries and other fields and we can't afford to keep losing at this rate.

Well, "can't" might be a bit of an overstatement, given that it's already happening.

America's glory days are in the past, if we've now decided to stop being innovators or technology leaders.  Empires rise and fall for a variety of reasons, but a key decision point for all of them is the moment they deliberately decide to forego long-term planning in favor of short-term benefits.  That's a guaranteed path to eventual failure.

That decision could be environmental or natural resource based, like the many pre-European empires that stripped their lands of food and fuel.  It could be military based, like overextending your borders into hostile lands where the people feel like subjects instead of citizens.  It can certainly be information based, like the Chinese and Arabic decisions to support their current stability at the cost of future knowledge and technology expansions. 

It would not surprise if Donald Trump tries to make that same bad decision in all three of those realms.  Good leaders need a bigger vision, and that is not something he has ever excelled at. 

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5652
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #240 on: November 26, 2016, 12:08:26 PM »
For reference, R&D funding as a percentage of GDP across all areas (including defense) is down about 40% from 1976 levels (http://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/RDGDP%3B.jpg).

In terms of inflation adjusted dollars, research spending has been increasing (slowly) over the same time period (at roughly 1%/year: http://www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/DefNon%3B.jpg)

So you could look at it a couple of ways - if you are concerned with total dollars, research funding has been improving. But it has been improving much more slowly than the overall economy.

Given the general hostility toward science that has been the theme for the GOP for quite a while, I'd assume funding cuts for nondefense areas will decline. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. Defense agencies (ie DARPA, DOE to some extent, and the various branches of the military) often fund a lot of basic research that doesn't have immediate military applications because they *do* think long term, so a sufficient increase in defense research funding could mostly counteract (in theory) cuts in nondefense research.

-Walt
« Last Edit: November 26, 2016, 12:12:46 PM by waltworks »

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #241 on: November 26, 2016, 01:44:15 PM »
a sufficient increase in defense research funding could mostly counteract (in theory) cuts in nondefense research.

This is not making me feel better about our government being run by creationists and climate change deniers.

waltworks

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5652
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #242 on: November 26, 2016, 02:09:23 PM »
a sufficient increase in defense research funding could mostly counteract (in theory) cuts in nondefense research.

This is not making me feel better about our government being run by creationists and climate change deniers.

Yeah, but they loves them some military spending. And the military, in general (har), is actually pretty concerned about climate change and much less interested in politicizing the science that they fund, since they need shit to work.

That said, it's pretty sad when you're depending on your military to make decent R&D decisions instead of your politicians. What are we, Turkey?

-W

BuffaloStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1282
  • Location: The boring middle accumulation phase
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #243 on: November 26, 2016, 03:13:29 PM »
A friend of mine put it best:

"Do you know why libertarians want smaller government? It isn't because they are opposed to all the good a benevolent leader could accomplish as they've been accused of time after time. It is because they wish to limit the damage a bad ruler can do."

Whether by actual action or by general discourse/reaction, this election will definitely have a drastic impact on the future.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #244 on: November 26, 2016, 03:46:04 PM »
a sufficient increase in defense research funding could mostly counteract (in theory) cuts in nondefense research.

This is not making me feel better about our government being run by creationists and climate change deniers.
Unfortunately, that feeling will probably persist for four years. I wish there was a way to make everyone happy; sadly I cant think of any that are reasonable.  "Elections have consequences."

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23048
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #245 on: November 26, 2016, 03:50:24 PM »
A friend of mine put it best:

"Do you know why libertarians want smaller government? It isn't because they are opposed to all the good a benevolent leader could accomplish as they've been accused of time after time. It is because they wish to limit the damage a bad ruler can do."

Most of the libertarians I'm familiar with are just ornery and arguing for smaller government in all cases gives them something most people will fight them on.  :P

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #246 on: November 27, 2016, 03:36:57 AM »
A relevant article I just came across. And this is before we really talk about reducing research funding:

[url][/http://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/26/university-of-wisconsinmadison-drops-in-research-rankingurl]

radram

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 956
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #247 on: November 27, 2016, 07:54:40 AM »
A relevant article I just came across. And this is before we really talk about reducing research funding:

[url][/http://www.mprnews.org/story/2016/11/26/university-of-wisconsinmadison-drops-in-research-rankingurl]

This is an expected result of education cuts in Wisconsin. When a researcher leaves, they usually take their research funding with them.  I expect them to drop further as the University struggles to attract new talents. I think our governor is realizing this and has stated he will replace some of the cuts in the next budget. Time will tell, but the damage might already have been done.  A reputation takes decades to build, yet can be destroyed in moments.

If Trump and the GOP are successful in less funding as a whole, that may actually make UW-Madison rise back up in the rankings due to all funding lowering nationwide. A tide lowers all ships even easier than it raises them.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #248 on: November 27, 2016, 03:42:49 PM »

"Power associated as a source of enrichment, personal affirmation and domination." That sounds about right to me.

Interesting.  As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #249 on: November 27, 2016, 05:06:25 PM »
As Donald Trump's actions since being elected have (so far) gone against at least two of those three points, i still disagree that the articles author was insightful or accurate.

Which three do you think Trump has "gone against"?  It's a serious question, because I honestly can't tell.