Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 229127 times)

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1850 on: February 07, 2017, 11:40:08 PM »
There is so much misinformation in this thread I'm not even sure where to start.

Please, people, don't believe everything you read on the forums.  If something looks suspect to you, go do your research and decide for yourself.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1851 on: February 07, 2017, 11:45:53 PM »
Back on topic...

Today's potential impact of a Trump Presidency:  In 2017 the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to hear two groundbreaking new environmental cases, one about whether or not the Clean Water Act applies to tributaries or just to the main stem of rivers and the other about whether or not the Clean Power Plan applies to all pollutants or just the ones with immediate human health impacts.

The Clean Water Act and the Clean Power Plan are both enforced by the EPA.  The plaintiff in both cases is former Oklahoma Attorney General (and current climate change denier) Scott Pruitt, who is the new head the EPA. 

So the Supreme Court is going to hear two landmark  environmental law cases in which Scott Pruitt will be responsible for defending the US government from the lawsuits that he himself originated. 

Trump has already promised to repeal the Clean Power Plan and to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act ("burdensome regulations" you know), but for now these are still US law that he cannot just unilaterally overturn as President, despite what he thinks.  The Supreme Court provides him with a potential shortcut around Congress to overturning these laws, and since he now owns both the plaintiff and the defendant in these cases, he apparently gets to decide which side is going to fail to show up for court that day. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1852 on: February 08, 2017, 12:11:39 AM »
Cut all the regs on coal you want. It doesn't mean anything. There is a basically inexhaustible (in the medium term) supply of cheap natural gas that will strangle it faster than anything else, and has been for the better part of a decade.

Now, if you want to extract coal to sell it abroad, it's no longer benefitting Americans nearly as much. As such, you better do a damn good job making sure you don't f things up for our local environment just because you want to sell it to China.

-W
Correct. As long as fracking is not litigated out of existence, nat. gas will kill coal (and possibly slow the growth of development of many other forms of energy production) as humanely as possible, without any worry of destabilizing the energy grid. It'll be exciting to see the infrastructure projects that evolve from this.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1853 on: February 08, 2017, 12:13:30 AM »
Back on topic...

Today's potential impact of a Trump Presidency:  In 2017 the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to hear two groundbreaking new environmental cases, one about whether or not the Clean Water Act applies to tributaries or just to the main stem of rivers and the other about whether or not the Clean Power Plan applies to all pollutants or just the ones with immediate human health impacts.

The Clean Water Act and the Clean Power Plan are both enforced by the EPA.  The plaintiff in both cases is former Oklahoma Attorney General (and current climate change denier) Scott Pruitt, who is the new head the EPA. 

So the Supreme Court is going to hear two landmark  environmental law cases in which Scott Pruitt will be responsible for defending the US government from the lawsuits that he himself originated. 

Trump has already promised to repeal the Clean Power Plan and to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act ("burdensome regulations" you know), but for now these are still US law that he cannot just unilaterally overturn as President, despite what he thinks.  The Supreme Court provides him with a potential shortcut around Congress to overturning these laws, and since he now owns both the plaintiff and the defendant in these cases, he apparently gets to decide which side is going to fail to show up for court that day.

Yikes...
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1854 on: February 08, 2017, 05:38:25 AM »
It's almost impossible to keep up.  You do know that tax reform is going to kill the estate tax too?  So folks like Trump and DeVos can be dynastic with their wealth.  Ugh.
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acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1855 on: February 08, 2017, 06:29:20 AM »
Trump has already promised to .... to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act
really? source?
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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1856 on: February 08, 2017, 07:03:51 AM »
Trump has already promised to .... to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act
really? source?

Trump has vowed to slash funding for the EPA as well as curtail enforcement of its regulation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-vows-to-slash-funding-for-education-epa-1452551107

As Sol already pointed out above, he hired the attorney who was suing the EPA over Clean Power Plan which regulates discharges into tributaries among numerous other things.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-vows-to-slash-funding-for-education-epa-1452551107

In his 2015 interview with Chris Wallace Trump called talked about the need for eliminating more environmental regulation:
Quote
TRUMP: Environmental protection, what they do is a disgrace. Every week they come out with new regulations. They're making it impossible...
WALLACE: Who's going to protect the environment?
TRUMP: -- they -- we'll be fine with the environment. We can leave a little bit, but you can't destroy businesses.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/18/full_replay_and_transcript_donald_trump_with_fncs_chris_wallace.html
Trump has also spoken of eliminating the EPA entirey as an "aspirational goal" that would best be achieved by incremental demolation rather than an executive order. 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/02/donald-trump-plans-to-abolish-environmental-protection-agency

I'm not sure how much clearer this could be - DJT has actively campaigned on curtailing EPA regulations and seeks to dismantle it entirely, and has put in charge its biggest legal foe
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acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1857 on: February 08, 2017, 07:42:21 AM »
Trump has already promised to .... to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act
really? source?

Trump has vowed to slash funding for the EPA as well as curtail enforcement of its regulation

As Sol already pointed out above, he hired the attorney who was suing the EPA over Clean Power Plan which regulates discharges into tributaries among numerous other things.

I'm not sure how much clearer this could be - DJT has actively campaigned on curtailing EPA regulations and seeks to dismantle it entirely, and has put in charge its biggest legal foe
No argument.
Still looking for the "promise to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act".
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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1858 on: February 08, 2017, 07:49:59 AM »
Trump has already promised to .... to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act
really? source?

Trump has vowed to slash funding for the EPA as well as curtail enforcement of its regulation

As Sol already pointed out above, he hired the attorney who was suing the EPA over Clean Power Plan which regulates discharges into tributaries among numerous other things.

I'm not sure how much clearer this could be - DJT has actively campaigned on curtailing EPA regulations and seeks to dismantle it entirely, and has put in charge its biggest legal foe
No argument.
Still looking for the "promise to stop enforcing the Clean Water Act".
Now you are just being pedantic. Vowing to eliminate EPA regulations (which include the CWA), having an aspirational goal of eliminating it entirely, and nominating the very person to lead the EPA who has sued over the CWA all adds up to the same thing. DJT's statements have been pretty clear (cited in part above) and his actions have backed up his statements.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1859 on: February 08, 2017, 08:04:06 AM »
I've come to realize that Trump is a symptom of our privately funded two party system. Even if you voted for him, I imagine you don't like the fact that congressional action correlates with the wishes of donors and not constituents. Fixing the system would hopefully fix this phenomenon.

As such, I'm focusing on ways to fix the system.  Here's something you can do right now.  Read my post about House Resolution 48 - check out the link to the text of the bill, and if you like what it says, follow my lead and contact your rep. So far, it's all dems and one republican sponsoring this bill. If we tell our reps to support it, maybe we can get bi-partisan support.

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/house-res-48-stop-corp-personhood-trump's-a-symptom-let's-fix-the-system
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radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1860 on: February 08, 2017, 08:08:49 AM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper. I have long wondered what we will do with all those people "doing nothing", and have even halfheartedly joked that we could have half of them dig a hole, and then have the other half fill it up the next day. No net benefit, but everyone "working".

I now believe that the border wall idea, on the wrong side of the country, no less, (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-docs-trump-fixated-on-wrong-border/ar-AAmGG2B?li=BBnb7Kz), will eventually be realized as my dig-a-hole theory, only you fill it up first, wait until the wall deteriorates, and then remove it instead of paying to maintain it. It is really the exact same thing.


Thoughts?

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1861 on: February 08, 2017, 08:40:34 AM »
I've come to realize that Trump is a symptom of our privately funded two party system. Even if you voted for him, I imagine you don't like the fact that congressional action correlates with the wishes of donors and not constituents. Fixing the system would hopefully fix this phenomenon.

As such, I'm focusing on ways to fix the system.  Here's something you can do right now.  Read my post about House Resolution 48 - check out the link to the text of the bill, and if you like what it says, follow my lead and contact your rep. So far, it's all dems and one republican sponsoring this bill. If we tell our reps to support it, maybe we can get bi-partisan support.

http://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/house-res-48-stop-corp-personhood-trump's-a-symptom-let's-fix-the-system
ROFL

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1862 on: February 08, 2017, 09:09:50 AM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper.
...
Thoughts?

Are you familiar with Keynes' 15 hour work week?
In summary, John Kaynes predicted in 1930 that increasing automation and productivity gains would reduce our necessary work week down to ~15 hours, and we would have the same quality of life.  In one way he was right; productivity and autonomy did mean huge economic gains, but people continued to work 40+ hours, mostly because we've all increased our consumption to match (2.5x larger houses, fancy cars, eating out, etc). Much of the jobs lost in factories were offset by gains in the service industry - the 'average' person pays other people to do many of the things we used to do ourselves. 

It's likely that automation and productivity gains will continue, but this doesn't mean people will work less or have less to do. In a very real way this has been the way our country has been progressing for the last 150+ years; ever increasing specialization.
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acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1863 on: February 08, 2017, 09:44:53 AM »
Now you are just being pedantic.
No, I asked for source of a very specific claim. None has been forthcoming. The claim smells like misinformation.

Back on the general topic of realistic impacts of the Trump presidency: He has turned conventional communication on it's head.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/312146-how-trump-changed-the-political-communication

Trump's methods are reminiscent of WJ Bryan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Jennings_Bryan_presidential_campaign,_1896

I am curious if this will be a 'communication expectations reset moment' - i.e. future candidates will be expected to twit, etc.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1864 on: February 08, 2017, 09:51:56 AM »
Quote
I now believe that the border wall idea, on the wrong side of the country, no less, (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-docs-trump-fixated-on-wrong-border/ar-AAmGG2B?li=BBnb7Kz), will eventually be realized as my dig-a-hole theory, only you fill it up first, wait until the wall deteriorates, and then remove it instead of paying to maintain it. It is really the exact same thing.

Don't forget wars.  The best damn jobs programs ever.  Trust me, they never really want people to stop working, because work is become less about providing value, and more about social and economic control. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1865 on: February 08, 2017, 10:04:25 AM »
Now you are just being pedantic.
No, I asked for source of a very specific claim. None has been forthcoming. The claim smells like misinformation.

Here is a White House statement saying that "President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule" -

https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-first-energy

The "Waters of the US rule" appears to also be known as the "Clean Waters rule", presumably because it was made under the Clean Waters Act -
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/315339-us-supreme-courts-waters-of-the-us-gift-to-the-trump
https://www.epa.gov/cleanwaterrule

Possibly the problem with finding definitive information about it is because the White House required the EPA not to announce it, and the White House Press Office only confirmed it after a leak -
http://anewdomain.net/trump-gags-epa-dump-clean-water-rule-for-113-americans/
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Just Joe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1866 on: February 08, 2017, 10:43:49 AM »
The fact of the matter is if you omit hydro (which most people dont consider renewable anymore), only 6% if our energy comes from the renewables, sun and wind. Even if you look at California it is only 15% between sun and wind, and even that fact is deceivingly high because that is only generation, not usage. California buys a huge percentage of its energy from Nevada, Mexico and Canada, I know because I built the 500kv and 230 kv transmission lines to pipe the energy in Also not quantified in this chart is when that energy is generated. Those of us in the industry familiar with the duck curve know that Solar works when the demand is moderate (afternoon) but not when it is most needed (evening) the result of that, and a lack of a suitable means of storage, is that a lot of solar energy sold back to the grid during the mid-day solar spike ends up getting wasted, un-utilized and dissipated as heat over time.

I too priced out a system big enough to get us off of the grid almost entirely (power neutral, still grid-tied) and we were looking at $25K or so - and that was full retail, not even bargain hunting.

http://www.backwoodssolar.com/

Excess grid power can be used in some creative ways that seldom get discussed in these debates such as pumped-hydro storage. Use the excess power to pump water on top of a mtn and then let it fall back to a lake in a valley in times of electrical need.

Then there are the stationary battery designs which can last decades and still be recyclable. Nickel-Iron comes to mind - they can last 50+ years. So does some of the NiMH batteries that were used in EVs until GM/Chevron/Cobrasys patent encumbrance. Some of those batteries were very long lived and well suited to different uses such as solar and wind electrical storage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93iron_battery

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1867 on: February 08, 2017, 10:45:45 AM »
Now you are just being pedantic.
No, I asked for source of a very specific claim. None has been forthcoming. The claim smells like misinformation.


Acroy- with Former Player's addition to the dialog, including this from the WH's energy plan -
Quote
For too long, we’ve been held back by burdensome regulations on our energy industry. President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule.
and
Quote
Then, in a move it ordered the EPA to keep confidential, it killed the Clean Water Rule. After a leak, Pres. Donald Trump’s press secretary confirmed the move.
do you concur that DJT is actually attacking the EPA's CWR and in general seeking to reduce the environmental regulations surrounding US rivers and tributaries?

Adding to the dialog, DJT also froze all new grants, work assignments and grants for the EPA.  This effectively (if only temporarily) cuts the ability of the EPA to monitor and enforce its own regulations.  Its akin to saying "Highway speed limits will remain in effect, but we're removing all police enforcement of speeding for the time being"
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Just Joe

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1868 on: February 08, 2017, 11:52:41 AM »
Well, today we learned how many Republican Senators care at all whether a person nominated for a Presidential Cabinet position has any qualifications for the job whatsoever.

That number, in case anyone wants to keep track, is: 2.

It really has been shocking how fragile democracy is.  How can the Senate think that DeVos is representative of what the public wants?  Once again, we are left hoping and praying nothing too bad happens in the meantime.

I wonder how many GOP senators voted for DeVos because they actually thought she was a decent candidate, vs. how many did so out of fear of what DJT might say and do to them.  In the cases of the latter, this is our checks and balances failing us.

Regarding DeVos - I cannot believe she's been confirmed; again it seems like a bad joke.
Let's review:
She's a billionaire who gave huge sums of money to the GOP (suggests nepotism)
She never attended any public schools, nor did her children
She has degrees in business and poltical science, not education. 
In fact, she has no real experience in education at all. Closest we come is being a board member for charter school advocacy, which is basically the opposite of public education.
Many of the groups she will now represent objected to her nomination

From Wikipedia:

"DeVos is married to Dick DeVos, the former CEO of multi-level marketing company Amway, and is the daughter-in-law of billionaire and Amway co-founder Richard DeVos. Her brother, Erik Prince, a former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, is the founder of Blackwater USA. DeVos is the daughter of Edgar Prince, founder of the Prince Corporation and owner of the Orlando Magic."

"...in response to Senator Maggie Hassan's questions, that she had nothing to do with the contributions made by her mother’s foundation to anti-gay rights groups including Focus on the Family and the Family Research Council. The Council has also lobbied against preventative health care programs, such as "needle exchanges."

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1869 on: February 08, 2017, 02:42:25 PM »
For those wondering whether DJT would indeed separate his family's business aspects with the presidency, these two incidents are cause for concern:
1) DOD is inquiring about renting out a floor of Trump Tower at an estimated cost of $1.5MM/year
2) Trump uses twitter to lash out at Nordstoms for dropping daughter Ivanka's clothing line
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Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1870 on: February 08, 2017, 05:39:25 PM »
^Coupled with his wife suing a paper.....this is quite the first family. I'm amazed. Our conservatives.....please dig Jeb or Cruz out of the dustbin and dust him off as a threat come 2020. This is horrible. Making Bush look like an effing statesman here.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1871 on: February 08, 2017, 07:49:03 PM »
Its fucking Trump of course he is going to cash in on being President. His only asset is his brand and nothing could make him more famous than being the reality star that became a President. There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop him from making money off of this deal. I will literally puke in my mouth if someone bitches about the Clinton's and their foundation again. Keeping track of Trump and his families potential profiteering and pay for play is an absolute cluster fuck by comparison.

As for good old Betsy. I would imagine, with my limited understanding of the scoop of Federal Educational department, that the worst should could do is divert all federal funding away from public schools or get the department shut down all together.

I believe the net effect of this would simply be to crush poor public schools that can't get enough funding locally and rely on federal funding to keep afloat. Which means poorer states, and poorer school districts will see schools go away and consolidate. While school districts in wealthy districts or reasonably well off areas will go more or less untouched since they get plenty of local funding.

Maybe if that happens enough of the lower middle class base will wake up and not vote for the clowns that put here that position again.

I understand the sentiment behind wanting to argue for privatizing schools and avoiding federal intervention in state education but the Republican solutions in that direction rarely seem to try to adapt to reality and will go right ahead and rip the rug out from under the poorest Americans who rely on the current federal funding system.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1872 on: February 08, 2017, 09:58:57 PM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper.
...
Thoughts?

Are you familiar with Keynes' 15 hour work week?
In summary, John Kaynes predicted in 1930 that increasing automation and productivity gains would reduce our necessary work week down to ~15 hours, and we would have the same quality of life.  In one way he was right; productivity and autonomy did mean huge economic gains, but people continued to work 40+ hours, mostly because we've all increased our consumption to match (2.5x larger houses, fancy cars, eating out, etc). Much of the jobs lost in factories were offset by gains in the service industry - the 'average' person pays other people to do many of the things we used to do ourselves. 

It's likely that automation and productivity gains will continue, but this doesn't mean people will work less or have less to do. In a very real way this has been the way our country has been progressing for the last 150+ years; ever increasing specialization.

There is an argument that this time is different. Prior technological innovation automated only highly routine physical work, which left non-routine and cognitive-based jobs for people.

In narrow domains, the ascendancy of AI can be quick--and the rate at which systems improve is also getting faster (time taken from project initiation to better than best human players: Chess -- Deep Blue -- 12 years, Jeopardy -- Watson -- 6 years, AlphaGo -- Go -- 3 years). Recently, deep learning has taken image recognition and translation between many language pairs up to parity with human performance or better. The problem of driving is also being solved. Rather than being merely fun and games, these are increasingly the sorts of domains in which people are employed. If machines are stronger and computers/algorithms smarter, that doesn't leave much behind for low-skilled people.

Naturally, there will be adjustments made along the way as people reorient their efforts to other tasks. But the rate of dislocation due to technological progress will only increase and the impacts broaden--and it's hard for people, who might successfully accommodate such shifts on the timescale of decades or generations, adjust adequately when the disruptive technologies emerge and dominate within several years.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 10:00:40 PM by lost_in_the_endless_aisle »

radram

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1873 on: February 09, 2017, 07:47:51 AM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper.
...
Thoughts?

Are you familiar with Keynes' 15 hour work week?
In summary, John Kaynes predicted in 1930 that increasing automation and productivity gains would reduce our necessary work week down to ~15 hours, and we would have the same quality of life.  In one way he was right; productivity and autonomy did mean huge economic gains, but people continued to work 40+ hours, mostly because we've all increased our consumption to match (2.5x larger houses, fancy cars, eating out, etc). Much of the jobs lost in factories were offset by gains in the service industry - the 'average' person pays other people to do many of the things we used to do ourselves. 

It's likely that automation and productivity gains will continue, but this doesn't mean people will work less or have less to do. In a very real way this has been the way our country has been progressing for the last 150+ years; ever increasing specialization.

But it DID reduce the NECESSARY work week, as measured by the amount of time spent maintaining the household.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/10/16/keynes-15-hour-work-week-is-here-right-now/#28ec4c19767e

Where Kaynes was off in his theory is what people then would do with that "extra time". Instead of taking it as leisure, it was exchanged for a higher standard of living, 8x higher as measured by the article (greed, not always bad). More-so in the US than in other countries.

While this desire to seek a higher standard of living will still exist, I believe it will reach a point of diminishing returns. It already has for 1 small, but increasing group of people, those of us on this thread.

We already see large swaths of the population uncounted or under-counted in the unemployment numbers. Those no longer looking, or those working part time for example.

I do believe that as technology makes people more productive, they will begin to see that trying for that higher standard of living will no longer be the payback it used to be. That will result in using that "extra" time for leisure.

Where "it is different this time" is that the standard of living will reach a point that more and more people will say enough.

It is kind of like Microsoft word upgrades. It reached a point where "different" was no longer better, and what people had was good enough. They no longer needed the added features, as the new features did not add enough significance to justify the cost. Now you can have google docs for free, and it is "good enough". Does anybody really believe there will be long lines waiting for the Apple 15 phone? Oh, but now I can get a watch that I can charge EVERYDAY. How great is that?

I also agree with Nero that the KIND of work about to be replaced will be an added game changer.

Interesting times.


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1874 on: February 09, 2017, 08:14:58 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1875 on: February 09, 2017, 08:24:51 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.

This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1876 on: February 09, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »
This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.

Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread. 

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1877 on: February 09, 2017, 08:34:28 AM »
This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.

Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Except that he isn't big. Trump's company is sort of unremarkable, middle of the pack as far as size, earnings, however you want to calculate it. Calling him average is highly charitable.

Also, he's bankrupted a lot more vendors and ruined a lot more lives than anyone on this thread. Whether or not he's paid any taxes is up for discussion. He definitely spends lots of money, I'll give you that.

He's no Jack Welch.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1878 on: February 09, 2017, 08:38:12 AM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper.
...
Thoughts?

Are you familiar with Keynes' 15 hour work week?
In summary, John Kaynes predicted in 1930 that increasing automation and productivity gains would reduce our necessary work week down to ~15 hours, and we would have the same quality of life.  In one way he was right; productivity and autonomy did mean huge economic gains, but people continued to work 40+ hours, mostly because we've all increased our consumption to match (2.5x larger houses, fancy cars, eating out, etc). Much of the jobs lost in factories were offset by gains in the service industry - the 'average' person pays other people to do many of the things we used to do ourselves. 

It's likely that automation and productivity gains will continue, but this doesn't mean people will work less or have less to do. In a very real way this has been the way our country has been progressing for the last 150+ years; ever increasing specialization.

But it DID reduce the NECESSARY work week, as measured by the amount of time spent maintaining the household.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/10/16/keynes-15-hour-work-week-is-here-right-now/#28ec4c19767e

...
No arguements there.  Keynes got it right that advances in productivity meant the same amount of work was accomplished in much less time. Where he got it wrong was in his assumption that people would be content (basically consumption increased to match productivity gains).

My personal belief is that, while we'll continue to see productivity gains, even in seemingly highly complex fields, the nature of work will just transfer to more specialized and more service-based fields.  While it's easy to look back at many jobs that have been lost to mechanization and say "but those were low-skill jobs" - I think we've got a historical bias; what we consider menial work better done by machines today (e.g. assembling a car chassis, for example) were in fact 'semi-skilled" or "highly skilled" jobs a few decades ago. Things like driving a truck will probably seem as low-skilled in a generation as mass-producing t-shirts seems to us today.
We shall see...
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1879 on: February 09, 2017, 08:58:06 AM »
Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Trump has relied on banrupcy of his own company as a reliable strategy to make money.  I do not think of him as a great businessman, nor the kind of person who will reform government in a way that benefits others.  I think he is enjoying making a million here and a million there for himself, and is very good at parcelling out favors to his supporters.

Quote
Trump’s companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. The bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity.

Trump’s Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, “defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin,” The Washington Post’s Robert O’Harrow found. In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt.

PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

farmecologist

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1880 on: February 09, 2017, 09:19:31 AM »
Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Trump has relied on banrupcy of his own company as a reliable strategy to make money.  I do not think of him as a great businessman, nor the kind of person who will reform government in a way that benefits others.  I think he is enjoying making a million here and a million there for himself, and is very good at parcelling out favors to his supporters.

Quote
Trump’s companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. The bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity.

Trump’s Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, “defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin,” The Washington Post’s Robert O’Harrow found. In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt.

PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.

I though this is relevant regarding the discussion of how good of a 'businessman' he is :

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/samantha-bee-scotland-donald-trump_us_589c2063e4b04061313bafb7

It goes over Trumps 'golf course' fiasco in Scotland...sorry but what a freaking tool...

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1881 on: February 09, 2017, 09:36:23 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.

His so-called success as a businessman can be attributed to two things (1) he started off with a shit ton of money and connections the rest of us did not have and (2) we don't know how successful he really is because he won't prove it, but he says it often and loudly making people believe it. 

Also we already have term limits, they are called elections.  Unfortunately, Citizens United has made things worse by burying the system in money and the GOP seems to be happy with that. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1882 on: February 09, 2017, 01:21:13 PM »
I slowly came to this realization today:

Donald Trump views congress and the judiciary as his employees

For obvious reasons this concerns the hell out of me - checks and balances and all.

As recent examples, he down-dressed a Senator who spoke about comments made by Gorsuch; he went on the attack against McCain for his comments about the Yemen raid, he's took to shaming the judges who have stayed the travel ban... and that's just in the last three days.

All presidents have bickered with the other branches, but I feel like DJT actually feels like he should be in control. 
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OurTown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1883 on: February 09, 2017, 02:02:03 PM »
What are the realistic impacts of Cersei Lannister on the Iron Throne?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1884 on: February 09, 2017, 03:27:05 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1885 on: February 09, 2017, 03:41:56 PM »
What are the realistic impacts of Cersei Lannister on the Iron Throne?

Wildfire.  Wildfire everywhere

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1886 on: February 09, 2017, 03:49:30 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.

Afraid not, they are too far down the rabbit hole. The best we'll get out of them is persistent claims that he is no worse than she is. My eyes are about ready to roll out of my head.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1887 on: February 09, 2017, 03:53:06 PM »
What are the realistic impacts of Cersei Lannister on the Iron Throne?

Wildfire.  Wildfire everywhere
That's on the Imp's head though.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1888 on: February 09, 2017, 04:44:27 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.

Afraid not, they are too far down the rabbit hole. The best we'll get out of them is persistent claims that he is no worse than she is. My eyes are about ready to roll out of my head.

I have in-laws that were in the very vocal "lock-her-up" chanting crowd.  In one of my lesser moments I sarcastically asked when this imminent indictment (or at the very least an appointed special prosecutor) would come.  I just got glared at.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 06:06:22 PM by nereo »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1889 on: February 09, 2017, 05:59:43 PM »
Worth a read:
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf

This is the case that just came out of the 9th circuit of appeals. Pretty damning of the administration.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1890 on: February 09, 2017, 06:18:41 PM »
Worth a read:
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf

This is the case that just came out of the 9th circuit of appeals. Pretty damning of the administration.

Yeah, the WH's arguments were pretty weak.

Quote
Instead,  the  Government  has  taken  the  position  that  the  President’s decisions about immigration policy, particularly when    motivated    by    national   security concerns,  are  unreviewable,  even  if  those  actions  potentially  contravene  constitutional  rights  and  protections.
[...]
There    is    no    precedent    to    support    this    claimed  unreviewability,  which  runs  contrary  to  the  fundamental structure of our constitutional democracy.
[...]
To  the  contrary,  the  Supreme  Court  has  repeatedly and explicitly rejected the notion that the political branches  have  unreviewable  authority  over  immigration

Ouch. It's like the WH lawyers didn't even try. Or maybe they were trying to create more executive power by throwing shit at the wall.




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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1891 on: February 09, 2017, 06:29:58 PM »
The Muslim ban was always going to be unconstitutional.  We all knew that when he started saying it during the campaign.  He did it anyway, and now every single court has told him it's unconstitutional.  Every level, unanimously, has returned the same verdict.  He'll appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court, and they'll tell him the same thing. 

And it still won't matter.  He'll claim that he's right and the courts are all wrong all the way through to the end, just like he has always done.  He can't admit he made a mistake, because he thinks that's a sign of weakness, so he's going to continue to insist that he is right and the constitution is wrong.  I predict he'll start using words like "activist judges" or maybe "dishonest liberal courts" or something even dumber, to get his point across.  Just like lyin' Ted and crooked Hillary, he'll give them a little nickname that his supporters will latch on to.

He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1892 on: February 09, 2017, 06:30:44 PM »
Ouch. It's like the WH lawyers didn't even try. Or maybe they were trying to create more executive power by throwing shit at the wall.

You throw enough shit, and eventually something will stick.

Just as I think I've heard the stupidest thing, they go above and beyond to outdo themselves.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1893 on: February 09, 2017, 06:32:31 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

ETA: I fear Sol's analysis might hold water - Trump just bought himself political cover for if/when the next terrorist attack happens.  "I was right!" he'll say, and fear will grow, and so (might) his power.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 06:36:02 PM by nereo »
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1894 on: February 09, 2017, 06:34:57 PM »
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

Exactly what I was thinking

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1895 on: February 09, 2017, 06:38:41 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

Reading what Sol wrote, ii) is probably Trump's Bannon's plan. If/when a major attack occurs, he'll gain immediate political capital. That can be spent in many ways, including buying a lot more executive power.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1896 on: February 09, 2017, 06:43:15 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

Reading what Sol wrote, ii) is probably Trump's Bannon's plan. If/when a major attack occurs, he'll gain immediate political capital. That can be spent in many ways, including buying a lot more executive power.


Yes. I think the title of the thread should be changed to "What are the realistic impacts of a Bannon presidency." What a maroon.

Rufus.T.Firefly

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1897 on: February 09, 2017, 06:44:28 PM »
The Muslim ban was always going to be unconstitutional.  We all knew that when he started saying it during the campaign.  He did it anyway, and now every single court has told him it's unconstitutional.  Every level, unanimously, has returned the same verdict.  He'll appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court, and they'll tell him the same thing. 

And it still won't matter.  He'll claim that he's right and the courts are all wrong all the way through to the end, just like he has always done.  He can't admit he made a mistake, because he thinks that's a sign of weakness, so he's going to continue to insist that he is right and the constitution is wrong.  I predict he'll start using words like "activist judges" or maybe "dishonest liberal courts" or something even dumber, to get his point across.  Just like lyin' Ted and crooked Hillary, he'll give them a little nickname that his supporters will latch on to.

He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore. He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

I can't stand Trump, but this is exactly right. And it's a stroke of genius. Trump always is looking for ways he can get a no-lose situation.

Either there are no terrorist attacks ("I'm a great President! America is safer than ever!") or there is a terrorist attack ("Blame the courts! I did everything I could!").

You would think he'll lose everyone's respect, but half of the country will live with it because he nominated Gorsuch. ("Trump doesn't hate the constitution, he nominated an originalist")
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1898 on: February 09, 2017, 06:49:00 PM »
I can't stand Trump, but this is exactly right. And it's a stroke of genius. Trump always is looking for ways he can get a no-lose situation.

Either there are no terrorist attacks ("I'm a great President! America is safer than ever!") or there is a terrorist attack ("Blame the courts! I did everything I could!").

You would think he'll lose everyone's respect, but half of the country will live with it because he nominated Gorsuch. ("Trump doesn't hate the constitution, he nominated an originalist")

The really sad part is that, even if the attackers are from France*, half the country will still support a ban on the 7 countries.

*http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/09/opinions/white-house-terrorism-list-undermines-the-case-for-travel-ban-bergen/index.html

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1899 on: February 09, 2017, 06:59:03 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.