Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 497996 times)

Fishindude

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3075
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1850 on: February 09, 2017, 08:14:58 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.



NoStacheOhio

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
  • Location: Cleveland
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1851 on: February 09, 2017, 08:24:51 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.

This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.

Fishindude

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3075
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1852 on: February 09, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »
This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.

Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread. 

NoStacheOhio

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
  • Location: Cleveland
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1853 on: February 09, 2017, 08:34:28 AM »
This overlooks the fact that he isn't a talented businessman.

Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Except that he isn't big. Trump's company is sort of unremarkable, middle of the pack as far as size, earnings, however you want to calculate it. Calling him average is highly charitable.

Also, he's bankrupted a lot more vendors and ruined a lot more lives than anyone on this thread. Whether or not he's paid any taxes is up for discussion. He definitely spends lots of money, I'll give you that.

He's no Jack Welch.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17472
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1854 on: February 09, 2017, 08:38:12 AM »
I believe long term unemployment will skyrocket in the coming decades due to automation. Think about never needing a human driver again within 20 years. To that end, I believe "full employment", currently stated to be 5%, will jump to be 40-50%, while the country will still prosper.
...
Thoughts?

Are you familiar with Keynes' 15 hour work week?
In summary, John Kaynes predicted in 1930 that increasing automation and productivity gains would reduce our necessary work week down to ~15 hours, and we would have the same quality of life.  In one way he was right; productivity and autonomy did mean huge economic gains, but people continued to work 40+ hours, mostly because we've all increased our consumption to match (2.5x larger houses, fancy cars, eating out, etc). Much of the jobs lost in factories were offset by gains in the service industry - the 'average' person pays other people to do many of the things we used to do ourselves. 

It's likely that automation and productivity gains will continue, but this doesn't mean people will work less or have less to do. In a very real way this has been the way our country has been progressing for the last 150+ years; ever increasing specialization.

But it DID reduce the NECESSARY work week, as measured by the amount of time spent maintaining the household.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/10/16/keynes-15-hour-work-week-is-here-right-now/#28ec4c19767e

...
No arguements there.  Keynes got it right that advances in productivity meant the same amount of work was accomplished in much less time. Where he got it wrong was in his assumption that people would be content (basically consumption increased to match productivity gains).

My personal belief is that, while we'll continue to see productivity gains, even in seemingly highly complex fields, the nature of work will just transfer to more specialized and more service-based fields.  While it's easy to look back at many jobs that have been lost to mechanization and say "but those were low-skill jobs" - I think we've got a historical bias; what we consider menial work better done by machines today (e.g. assembling a car chassis, for example) were in fact 'semi-skilled" or "highly skilled" jobs a few decades ago. Things like driving a truck will probably seem as low-skilled in a generation as mass-producing t-shirts seems to us today.
We shall see...

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4811
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1855 on: February 09, 2017, 08:58:06 AM »
Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Trump has relied on banrupcy of his own company as a reliable strategy to make money.  I do not think of him as a great businessman, nor the kind of person who will reform government in a way that benefits others.  I think he is enjoying making a million here and a million there for himself, and is very good at parcelling out favors to his supporters.

Quote
Trump’s companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. The bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity.

Trump’s Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, “defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin,” The Washington Post’s Robert O’Harrow found. In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt.

PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.

farmecologist

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 597
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1856 on: February 09, 2017, 09:19:31 AM »
Easy response.  Most business people have had some failures, and when you are as big in business as Trump they can be "big, newsworthy" failures.
But I'm still betting he has; employed a whole lot more people, made a lot more payrolls, made more people wealthy, paid a lot more taxes, spent a whole lot more money in his communities, etc. than any of us posting on this thread.

Trump has relied on banrupcy of his own company as a reliable strategy to make money.  I do not think of him as a great businessman, nor the kind of person who will reform government in a way that benefits others.  I think he is enjoying making a million here and a million there for himself, and is very good at parcelling out favors to his supporters.

Quote
Trump’s companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. The bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity.

Trump’s Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, “defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin,” The Washington Post’s Robert O’Harrow found. In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt.

PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession.

I though this is relevant regarding the discussion of how good of a 'businessman' he is :

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/samantha-bee-scotland-donald-trump_us_589c2063e4b04061313bafb7

It goes over Trumps 'golf course' fiasco in Scotland...sorry but what a freaking tool...

Unique User

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 718
  • Location: NC
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1857 on: February 09, 2017, 09:36:23 AM »
Back to the original thread question ..... What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?

My hopes have always been that since he is a lifelong businessman he will try to influence government spending from a businessman's point of view and do things like; eliminate departments that don't make sense, reduce staff where not needed, require departments to hit reasonable budgets, free up burdens and restrictions on private business, reduce taxes on the tax payers, etc.   I think a lot of the exec orders, etc. that he has made recently have this stuff in mind as the end goal, but the libs and media are fighting it all tooth and nail.

Would also hope that sometime in the next four years someone has the guts to try to push for term limits and eliminate the "paid for life" programs our elected officials currently enjoy.

This is probably all too much to ask for, but I'm still hopeful that since he is not a DC insider / career politician personally affected financially by these decisions, we might see a little progress in these areas.

His so-called success as a businessman can be attributed to two things (1) he started off with a shit ton of money and connections the rest of us did not have and (2) we don't know how successful he really is because he won't prove it, but he says it often and loudly making people believe it. 

Also we already have term limits, they are called elections.  Unfortunately, Citizens United has made things worse by burying the system in money and the GOP seems to be happy with that. 

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17472
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1858 on: February 09, 2017, 01:21:13 PM »
I slowly came to this realization today:

Donald Trump views congress and the judiciary as his employees

For obvious reasons this concerns the hell out of me - checks and balances and all.

As recent examples, he down-dressed a Senator who spoke about comments made by Gorsuch; he went on the attack against McCain for his comments about the Yemen raid, he's took to shaming the judges who have stayed the travel ban... and that's just in the last three days.

All presidents have bickered with the other branches, but I feel like DJT actually feels like he should be in control. 

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1859 on: February 09, 2017, 02:02:03 PM »
What are the realistic impacts of Cersei Lannister on the Iron Throne?

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8723
  • Location: Avalon
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1860 on: February 09, 2017, 03:27:05 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9918
  • Registered member
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1861 on: February 09, 2017, 03:41:56 PM »
What are the realistic impacts of Cersei Lannister on the Iron Throne?

Wildfire.  Wildfire everywhere

Lagom

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1258
  • Age: 40
  • Location: SF Bay Area
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1862 on: February 09, 2017, 03:49:30 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.

Afraid not, they are too far down the rabbit hole. The best we'll get out of them is persistent claims that he is no worse than she is. My eyes are about ready to roll out of my head.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17472
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1863 on: February 09, 2017, 04:44:27 PM »
I suppose it would be unrealistic to expect the people who kept saying "corrupt Hillary" to now say "corrupt Trump" instead.

Afraid not, they are too far down the rabbit hole. The best we'll get out of them is persistent claims that he is no worse than she is. My eyes are about ready to roll out of my head.

I have in-laws that were in the very vocal "lock-her-up" chanting crowd.  In one of my lesser moments I sarcastically asked when this imminent indictment (or at the very least an appointed special prosecutor) would come.  I just got glared at.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 06:06:22 PM by nereo »

Glenstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3493
  • Age: 94
  • Location: Upper left corner
  • FI(lean) working on the "RE"
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1864 on: February 09, 2017, 05:59:43 PM »
Worth a read:
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf

This is the case that just came out of the 9th circuit of appeals. Pretty damning of the administration.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7036
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1865 on: February 09, 2017, 06:18:41 PM »
Worth a read:
http://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2017/02/09/17-35105.pdf

This is the case that just came out of the 9th circuit of appeals. Pretty damning of the administration.

Yeah, the WH's arguments were pretty weak.

Quote
Instead,  the  Government  has  taken  the  position  that  the  President’s decisions about immigration policy, particularly when    motivated    by    national   security concerns,  are  unreviewable,  even  if  those  actions  potentially  contravene  constitutional  rights  and  protections.
[...]
There    is    no    precedent    to    support    this    claimed  unreviewability,  which  runs  contrary  to  the  fundamental structure of our constitutional democracy.
[...]
To  the  contrary,  the  Supreme  Court  has  repeatedly and explicitly rejected the notion that the political branches  have  unreviewable  authority  over  immigration

Ouch. It's like the WH lawyers didn't even try. Or maybe they were trying to create more executive power by throwing shit at the wall.




sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1866 on: February 09, 2017, 06:29:58 PM »
The Muslim ban was always going to be unconstitutional.  We all knew that when he started saying it during the campaign.  He did it anyway, and now every single court has told him it's unconstitutional.  Every level, unanimously, has returned the same verdict.  He'll appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court, and they'll tell him the same thing. 

And it still won't matter.  He'll claim that he's right and the courts are all wrong all the way through to the end, just like he has always done.  He can't admit he made a mistake, because he thinks that's a sign of weakness, so he's going to continue to insist that he is right and the constitution is wrong.  I predict he'll start using words like "activist judges" or maybe "dishonest liberal courts" or something even dumber, to get his point across.  Just like lyin' Ted and crooked Hillary, he'll give them a little nickname that his supporters will latch on to.

He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1867 on: February 09, 2017, 06:30:44 PM »
Ouch. It's like the WH lawyers didn't even try. Or maybe they were trying to create more executive power by throwing shit at the wall.

You throw enough shit, and eventually something will stick.

Just as I think I've heard the stupidest thing, they go above and beyond to outdo themselves.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 17472
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1868 on: February 09, 2017, 06:32:31 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

ETA: I fear Sol's analysis might hold water - Trump just bought himself political cover for if/when the next terrorist attack happens.  "I was right!" he'll say, and fear will grow, and so (might) his power.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 06:36:02 PM by nereo »

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1869 on: February 09, 2017, 06:34:57 PM »
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

Exactly what I was thinking

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7036
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1870 on: February 09, 2017, 06:38:41 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

Reading what Sol wrote, ii) is probably Trump's Bannon's plan. If/when a major attack occurs, he'll gain immediate political capital. That can be spent in many ways, including buying a lot more executive power.

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1871 on: February 09, 2017, 06:43:15 PM »
once again I'm left wondering what Trump's end game is here (assuming he has one).

Antagonizing the judicial branch won't likely win him favorable opinions down the road, and the WH can't remove or reassign already appointed federal judges.  If Gorsuch's comments are any indication, even those hand-picked by the administration won't necessarily do whatever he asks (which is, of course, as it should be in a fuctional democracy with separation of powers).

I'm left with either
i) DJT simply attacks whomever he disagrees with, regardless of the consequences of
ii) there's a deeper plan to undermine all other forms of government to bolster the executive branch

Reading what Sol wrote, ii) is probably Trump's Bannon's plan. If/when a major attack occurs, he'll gain immediate political capital. That can be spent in many ways, including buying a lot more executive power.


Yes. I think the title of the thread should be changed to "What are the realistic impacts of a Bannon presidency." What a maroon.

Rufus.T.Firefly

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 272
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1872 on: February 09, 2017, 06:44:28 PM »
The Muslim ban was always going to be unconstitutional.  We all knew that when he started saying it during the campaign.  He did it anyway, and now every single court has told him it's unconstitutional.  Every level, unanimously, has returned the same verdict.  He'll appeal it all the way to the Supreme Court, and they'll tell him the same thing. 

And it still won't matter.  He'll claim that he's right and the courts are all wrong all the way through to the end, just like he has always done.  He can't admit he made a mistake, because he thinks that's a sign of weakness, so he's going to continue to insist that he is right and the constitution is wrong.  I predict he'll start using words like "activist judges" or maybe "dishonest liberal courts" or something even dumber, to get his point across.  Just like lyin' Ted and crooked Hillary, he'll give them a little nickname that his supporters will latch on to.

He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore. He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

I can't stand Trump, but this is exactly right. And it's a stroke of genius. Trump always is looking for ways he can get a no-lose situation.

Either there are no terrorist attacks ("I'm a great President! America is safer than ever!") or there is a terrorist attack ("Blame the courts! I did everything I could!").

You would think he'll lose everyone's respect, but half of the country will live with it because he nominated Gorsuch. ("Trump doesn't hate the constitution, he nominated an originalist")

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7036
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1873 on: February 09, 2017, 06:49:00 PM »
I can't stand Trump, but this is exactly right. And it's a stroke of genius. Trump always is looking for ways he can get a no-lose situation.

Either there are no terrorist attacks ("I'm a great President! America is safer than ever!") or there is a terrorist attack ("Blame the courts! I did everything I could!").

You would think he'll lose everyone's respect, but half of the country will live with it because he nominated Gorsuch. ("Trump doesn't hate the constitution, he nominated an originalist")

The really sad part is that, even if the attackers are from France*, half the country will still support a ban on the 7 countries.

*http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/09/opinions/white-house-terrorism-list-undermines-the-case-for-travel-ban-bergen/index.html

dividendman

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1894
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1874 on: February 09, 2017, 06:59:03 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4811
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1875 on: February 09, 2017, 07:20:47 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

The more immediate impact is that all of the lawsuits from green-card and visa holders will move ahead.  I bet the US Gov't becomes a cash pinata for emotional and job-related damages, lawyers are going to have a field day and an interesting precedent will be set on being able to directly challenge Executive Orders.  Who knew that Making America Great Again would start with making immigrants and lawyers rich and powerful?  Talk about unintended consequences!   
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 07:24:19 PM by EscapeVelocity2020 »

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1876 on: February 09, 2017, 07:23:27 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

Sally Yates was a political appointee, not a career civil servant.  She never had any job protections.  She could have been dismissed at any time, for any reason or no reason at all.

Of course, Trump is trying to strip all of the current job protections for career civil servants, too.  He apparently pines for the olden days before merit reviews, when  government employment was a reward for party loyalists and nepotism and corruption were Business As Usual.

Now that I'm thinking about it, I'm betting Sally Yates is pretty happy with how this played out.  As epic FU stories go, hers was pretty amazing.  Not many of us get to go out in a blaze of glory for defending the US Constitution.  She fell on her sword for this one, and that's a story you can tell your grandkids.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2017, 08:23:34 PM by sol »

BuffaloStache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1282
  • Location: The boring middle accumulation phase
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1877 on: February 09, 2017, 07:50:06 PM »
...Of course, Trump is trying to strip all of the current job protections for career civil servants, too.  He apparently pines for the olden days before merit reviews, when  government employment was a reward for party loyalists and nepotism and corruption were Business As Usual.

I received a government job offer (non politically appointed, civil service engineering job) immediately after the election, and this definitely weighed in my decision to decline the offer. I'm not convinced he'll be able to strip all the protections, but I'm sure government employment will change greatly.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1878 on: February 09, 2017, 08:33:27 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

The more immediate impact is that all of the lawsuits from green-card and visa holders will move ahead.  I bet the US Gov't becomes a cash pinata for emotional and job-related damages, lawyers are going to have a field day and an interesting precedent will be set on being able to directly challenge Executive Orders.  Who knew that Making America Great Again would start with making immigrants and lawyers rich and powerful?  Talk about unintended consequences!

Even if sovereign immunity can be argued to be inapplicable for those cases, I'm pretty sure punitive damages could not be claimed. At worst, the cost would be some re-booked plane tickets, a couple days in wages, and a few nights in a hotel per case.

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4811
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1879 on: February 09, 2017, 09:17:51 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

The more immediate impact is that all of the lawsuits from green-card and visa holders will move ahead.  I bet the US Gov't becomes a cash pinata for emotional and job-related damages, lawyers are going to have a field day and an interesting precedent will be set on being able to directly challenge Executive Orders.  Who knew that Making America Great Again would start with making immigrants and lawyers rich and powerful?  Talk about unintended consequences!

Even if sovereign immunity can be argued to be inapplicable for those cases, I'm pretty sure punitive damages could not be claimed. At worst, the cost would be some re-booked plane tickets, a couple days in wages, and a few nights in a hotel per case.

I'd love to have a real lawyer weigh in, because this could be new territory.  What I argue is that the EO was so poorly written as to be indefensible.  Legally protected immigrants (you know, that have been in the system forever and are not terrorists) were turned away at the airport trying to get back to their homes and families.  They can obviously sue for undue hardship, if the Executive Order is ruled unconstitutional (which seems to be where Trump is headed with this).  This guy is so inept that the best thing you can do is take advantage of it as soon as possible. 

In 4 years, if Trump is up for re-election, there is going to be some crazy Russian Fancy Bear action.   And yes, our electorate is not sophisticated enough to not be manipulated.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1880 on: February 09, 2017, 09:48:10 PM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

The more immediate impact is that all of the lawsuits from green-card and visa holders will move ahead.  I bet the US Gov't becomes a cash pinata for emotional and job-related damages, lawyers are going to have a field day and an interesting precedent will be set on being able to directly challenge Executive Orders.  Who knew that Making America Great Again would start with making immigrants and lawyers rich and powerful?  Talk about unintended consequences!

Even if sovereign immunity can be argued to be inapplicable for those cases, I'm pretty sure punitive damages could not be claimed. At worst, the cost would be some re-booked plane tickets, a couple days in wages, and a few nights in a hotel per case.

I'd love to have a real lawyer weigh in, because this could be new territory.  What I argue is that the EO was so poorly written as to be indefensible.  Legally protected immigrants (you know, that have been in the system forever and are not terrorists) were turned away at the airport trying to get back to their homes and families.  They can obviously sue for undue hardship, if the Executive Order is ruled unconstitutional (which seems to be where Trump is headed with this).  This guy is so inept that the best thing you can do is take advantage of it as soon as possible. 

In 4 years, if Trump is up for re-election, there is going to be some crazy Russian Fancy Bear action.   And yes, our electorate is not sophisticated enough to not be manipulated.
Russia thinks it's the Third Rome but really it's the Second Mongol Empire. Seems fitting they replaced the actual horses with Trojan ones. I do wish beyond all hope that the alleged Kompromat on Trump actually exists and this time next year, while Donbass is falling to Ninja Turtles, we are watching a pyramid of honeypots performing a golden shower at the Moscow Ritz-Carlton on LiveLeak.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8723
  • Location: Avalon
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1881 on: February 10, 2017, 02:19:12 AM »
If the courts strike down Trump's executive order as unconstitutional and all of the appeals to the contrary are exhausted, does Sally Yates get her job back?

She was fired for failing to enforce/defend a legal order. But if the order is found to be illegal... then she was right and she shouldn't have tried to enforce/defend it.

The more immediate impact is that all of the lawsuits from green-card and visa holders will move ahead.  I bet the US Gov't becomes a cash pinata for emotional and job-related damages, lawyers are going to have a field day and an interesting precedent will be set on being able to directly challenge Executive Orders.  Who knew that Making America Great Again would start with making immigrants and lawyers rich and powerful?  Talk about unintended consequences!

Even if sovereign immunity can be argued to be inapplicable for those cases, I'm pretty sure punitive damages could not be claimed. At worst, the cost would be some re-booked plane tickets, a couple days in wages, and a few nights in a hotel per case.

I'd love to have a real lawyer weigh in, because this could be new territory.  What I argue is that the EO was so poorly written as to be indefensible.  Legally protected immigrants (you know, that have been in the system forever and are not terrorists) were turned away at the airport trying to get back to their homes and families.  They can obviously sue for undue hardship, if the Executive Order is ruled unconstitutional (which seems to be where Trump is headed with this).  This guy is so inept that the best thing you can do is take advantage of it as soon as possible. 

In 4 years, if Trump is up for re-election, there is going to be some crazy Russian Fancy Bear action.   And yes, our electorate is not sophisticated enough to not be manipulated.
I would be trying to make the argument that the Executive Order was not just unconstitutional but obviously and deliberately unconstitutional with no legal defence, and therefore that Trump was acting outside the powers of the office of President when he signed it and is personally liable for damages.

ETA: I think the Executive Order probably meets the standard for Malfeasance in Public Office.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2017, 02:23:00 AM by former player »

EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4811
  • Age: 50
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1882 on: February 10, 2017, 07:20:22 AM »
It's almost funny to see this play out.  I see stuff like this in my job, when a 'businessman' comes in on the $4 Billion engineering project and suggest that we meet schedule by skipping a step or two (to save maybe a few million).  The company would get sued for sure, when things go to hell (and they might even make a movie about it).  But I must admit, I've never had the prospect of that great businessman boss Tweet publicly that we are 'A BUNCH OF MORONS killing American Greatness!  Sad!' :)

golden1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1541
  • Location: MA
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1883 on: February 10, 2017, 07:26:21 AM »
Quote
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

Bingo. 

Unique User

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 718
  • Location: NC
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1884 on: February 10, 2017, 08:56:07 AM »
Quote
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

Bingo.

Agree, and truly hate the thought if it. 

golden1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1541
  • Location: MA
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1885 on: February 10, 2017, 09:47:07 AM »
You always have to approach what Trump says with this idea in mind:  He uses language and words not to communicate ideas to people, but as a useful instrument to further his own agenda.  Truth means nothing to him and not to his supporters either.  Everything that comes out of his mouth is to evoke an emotion in either his supporters or his enemies.  This is why he seems so alien to a lot of people, including myself.  And it isn't some 3D chess voodoo either.  I think it's completely instinctual on his part.   


SisterX

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3035
  • Location: 2nd Star on the Right and Straight On 'Til Morning
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1886 on: February 10, 2017, 09:50:38 AM »
In 4 years, if Trump is up for re-election, there is going to be some crazy Russian Fancy Bear action.   And yes, our electorate is not sophisticated enough to not be manipulated.

They already have been, already are being manipulated. (There is this rebuttal to that article, but frankly it seems like more of a "nuh-uh!" knee-jerk reaction to the very idea that people are so easily manipulated. They seem to be taking it at face value that the only data the company would have collected was from Facebook, but there are so many other sources of Big Data that they could tap into. And that's just my first problem with their analysis, for an example.)

DoubleDown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2075
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1887 on: February 10, 2017, 04:25:06 PM »
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.

MasterStache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2907
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1888 on: February 10, 2017, 04:31:40 PM »
Hmmm, looks like parts of the Dossier have been confirmed. Particularly some of the communications. No one seems to want to comment except Spicer who simply chided CNN for more fake news. LMAO!!!! Time to get the boots on. Shits getting deep.

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1889 on: February 10, 2017, 04:42:17 PM »
I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.

I wish I could agree, but read this today: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-bowling-green-massacre_us_589df750e4b0ab2d2b14cb22?7d38q1v176n4gqfr&

There's so much distraction, bait and switch and lies that regular people who don't have time to read or watch news don't know what's going on. Trump said today that he would have won NH if it wasn't for voter fraud... to distract from the rest of the shitty shit that is going on. And the media buys it, and the cycle continues.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1890 on: February 10, 2017, 04:58:43 PM »
^Coupled with his wife suing a paper.....this is quite the first family. I'm amazed. Our conservatives.....please dig Jeb or Cruz out of the dustbin and dust him off as a threat come 2020. This is horrible. Making Bush look like an effing statesman here.
Do you really think the Meliana lawsuit was as frivolous as a tweet by Donald? I for one find any publication that would publish derogatory, unfounded allegations that a woman was an escort to be despicable.  I don't see how defending oneself from slander is equatable to the off-the wall comments DJT makes on a daily basis.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1891 on: February 10, 2017, 05:02:48 PM »
I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.

I wish I could agree, but read this today: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-bowling-green-massacre_us_589df750e4b0ab2d2b14cb22?7d38q1v176n4gqfr&

There's so much distraction, bait and switch and lies that regular people who don't have time to read or watch news don't know what's going on. Trump said today that he would have won NH if it wasn't for voter fraud... to distract from the rest of the shitty shit that is going on. And the media buys it, and the cycle continues.
To the extent the first few weeks of POTUS Trump can be construed to have a strategy, it appears to be to shorten the OODA loop at the expense of all other considerations so as to choke the media and political adversaries with too many issues to effectively combat. It's actually a good strategy because even with the several big missteps so far, subsequent maneuvers have redirected and distracted the headlines away from previous blunders. There is a natural limit to this, however, since much of the noise has been generated by EOs and confirmation hearings. Once that cycle winds down and the system settles into its normal legislative intransigence, history will catch up with Trump.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1892 on: February 10, 2017, 05:13:50 PM »
Quote
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

Bingo.

Agree, and truly hate the thought if it.
While I'm glad the checks and balances of our system work, sometimes it is still sadly amazing that Trump can keep winning, even with literally everyone against him. It's like some kind of dark magic.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1893 on: February 10, 2017, 05:22:05 PM »
He won't really mind losing this one, though.  It's all political theater.  When the next terrorist attack or mass shooting inevitably comes, this buys him political cover.  He'll say he tried to stop it, but the liberal courts interfered because they hate America and love terrorists.  It won't matter if the attack is actually perpetrated by immigrants or Muslims or whatever.  All Presidents fear a terrorist attack on their watch, and now he doesn't have to fear that anymore.  He has built an excuse to blame his political opponents.  If there is an attack, it helps him win re-election.  If there's not, he hasn't really lost anything by being forced to adhere to the Constitutional balance of powers that he was always going to be bound by anyway.

I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.
I don't know. Has there ever been a terrorist attack on American soil from non-citizens radicalized in these countries that this ban would have stopped? Some of the European ones, perhaps, but any of the attacks on American soil? I don't think that these facts are obvious enough to most people, and there are enough people that support strengthening the vetting process anyway, that these actions may not seem to be as ineffectual as they are.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8433
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1894 on: February 10, 2017, 05:35:59 PM »
Has there ever been a terrorist attack on American soil from non-citizens radicalized in these countries that this ban would have stopped?

I think our odds of having one in the next four years just went WAAAAY up, as a result of the Muslim ban.  We've spent 15 years trying to convince the global Muslim population that America is not their enemy, but Don has undone all of that work in a matter of days.

DoubleDown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2075
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1895 on: February 10, 2017, 05:36:35 PM »
I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.

I wish I could agree, but read this today: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-bowling-green-massacre_us_589df750e4b0ab2d2b14cb22?7d38q1v176n4gqfr&

There's so much distraction, bait and switch and lies that regular people who don't have time to read or watch news don't know what's going on. Trump said today that he would have won NH if it wasn't for voter fraud... to distract from the rest of the shitty shit that is going on. And the media buys it, and the cycle continues.

But that article doesn't support the idea that everyone's bamboozled by Trump's lies and bullshit. It actually suggests the opposite...

Quote
"That makes a splashy headline, and it’s catnip for liberals who want to laugh at how stupid they think Trump supporters are. But it’s not good polling practice and should not be reported without substantial caveats about how the question was written and likely perceived by respondents. "
...
"In that frame of mind, how many Americans have probably heard of the Bowling Green Massacre, or know it’s a fake thing Kellyanne Conway made up last week? We don’t know. The poll didn’t ask that question. The question wasn’t even about whether people believed the fictional massacre happened"

At any rate, there will always be a good portion of people who support Trump despite all his bullshit. But I do not think he'd get away with claiming a terrorist attack by someone outside those countries in his executive order is the court's fault. I'm actually getting heartened by the dramatic response (i.e., outrage) to Trump in just 3 weeks. I think this could be the shortest presidency ever (short of assassinations in the past), and/or the Republicans will suffer a dramatic backlash the next election.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1896 on: February 10, 2017, 06:27:39 PM »
Has there ever been a terrorist attack on American soil from non-citizens radicalized in these countries that this ban would have stopped?

I think our odds of having one in the next four years just went WAAAAY up, as a result of the Muslim ban.  We've spent 15 years trying to convince the global Muslim population that America is not their enemy, but Don has undone all of that work in a matter of days.
I'm sure bombing their hospitals, droning their funerals, burning their country down and occupying their land for a decade and a half was just about to make them our friends. Darn.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

  • Guest
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1897 on: February 10, 2017, 06:39:39 PM »
Has there ever been a terrorist attack on American soil from non-citizens radicalized in these countries that this ban would have stopped?

I think our odds of having one in the next four years just went WAAAAY up, as a result of the Muslim ban.  We've spent 15 years trying to convince the global Muslim population that America is not their enemy, but Don has undone all of that work in a matter of days.
I'm sure bombing their hospitals, droning their funerals, burning their country down and occupying their land for a decade and a half was just about to make them our friends. Darn.
I'm not convinced that matters. The people actually doing the killing from the Middle East are crazy and irrational (their leaders might be more rational and calculating though!). The US could be carpet bombing with gourmet chocolate eclairs instead of bombs and almost all of these people would still be insane killers. There is a fundamental tension between the cultures in that region and the cultures of the West. ME Islamic culture would be just fine as a stagnant culture if not for the comparatively open and technologically progressive culture of the West laying bare the sickness and deficiencies of the ME (recall some countries in the ME did not even ban slavery until the 1960s-70s). There is nowhere to hide your crazy ideologies and punitive subjugation of women in the YouTube/Facebook/twitter era.

Metric Mouse

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5278
  • FU @ 22. F.I.R.E before 23
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1898 on: February 10, 2017, 07:00:14 PM »
Has there ever been a terrorist attack on American soil from non-citizens radicalized in these countries that this ban would have stopped?

I think our odds of having one in the next four years just went WAAAAY up, as a result of the Muslim ban.  We've spent 15 years trying to convince the global Muslim population that America is not their enemy, but Don has undone all of that work in a matter of days.
I'm sure bombing their hospitals, droning their funerals, burning their country down and occupying their land for a decade and a half was just about to make them our friends. Darn.
I'm not convinced that matters. The people actually doing the killing from the Middle East are crazy and irrational (their leaders might be more rational and calculating though!). The US could be carpet bombing with gourmet chocolate eclairs instead of bombs and almost all of these people would still be insane killers. There is a fundamental tension between the cultures in that region and the cultures of the West. ME Islamic culture would be just fine as a stagnant culture if not for the comparatively open and technologically progressive culture of the West laying bare the sickness and deficiencies of the ME (recall some countries in the ME did not even ban slavery until the 1960s-70s). There is nowhere to hide your crazy ideologies and punitive subjugation of women in the YouTube/Facebook/twitter era.
Sol may have a point though; there have been fewer attacks, and fewer terrorist casualties in the United States than there have been in Europe over the past few years. Could it be that we were actually doing something right?

accolay

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 990
Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1899 on: February 10, 2017, 07:20:53 PM »
I disagree with this. I agree with you that Trump can't stand to lose, and that he'll TRY to argue that it's the court's fault if there's another terrorist attack, but I do not agree that he'll get away with it. There are lots of rubes in this country that believe stupid sh*t, but I'll say that most of Trump's bald-faced lies have been called out and people don't fall for it. It won't be hard to distinguish that if there's another terror attack that comes from someone not among those 7 banned countries, then it's not the court's fault and instead lies at Trump's feet for failing to stop it.

I wish I could agree, but read this today: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-supporters-bowling-green-massacre_us_589df750e4b0ab2d2b14cb22?7d38q1v176n4gqfr&

There's so much distraction, bait and switch and lies that regular people who don't have time to read or watch news don't know what's going on. Trump said today that he would have won NH if it wasn't for voter fraud... to distract from the rest of the shitty shit that is going on. And the media buys it, and the cycle continues.

But that article doesn't support the idea that everyone's bamboozled by Trump's lies and bullshit. It actually suggests the opposite...

Quote
"That makes a splashy headline, and it’s catnip for liberals who want to laugh at how stupid they think Trump supporters are. But it’s not good polling practice and should not be reported without substantial caveats about how the question was written and likely perceived by respondents. "
...
"In that frame of mind, how many Americans have probably heard of the Bowling Green Massacre, or know it’s a fake thing Kellyanne Conway made up last week? We don’t know. The poll didn’t ask that question. The question wasn’t even about whether people believed the fictional massacre happened"

At any rate, there will always be a good portion of people who support Trump despite all his bullshit. But I do not think he'd get away with claiming a terrorist attack by someone outside those countries in his executive order is the court's fault. I'm actually getting heartened by the dramatic response (i.e., outrage) to Trump in just 3 weeks. I think this could be the shortest presidency ever (short of assassinations in the past), and/or the Republicans will suffer a dramatic backlash the next election.

My point was that regular people don't even have time to figure out what's bullshit or not. They'll fall for it and can't call it out because they don't know it's fake, just like some of the news during the election.

Quote
The average American doesn’t spend hours of their day glued to Twitter and cable networks watching all the latest developments in Washington, D.C. Most are busy living their lives, caring for families, working non-political jobs or all of the above.

Those who will support Trump no matter what will absolutely believe it's the courts fault if (when?) something happens. They're thinking about a new ban instead of pursuing it in the courts.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!