Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 159237 times)

EverCurious

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1750 on: February 04, 2017, 06:06:54 PM »
I'm truly terrified, but I have nowhere I think my husband and I can go. We don't exactly have STEM jobs so moving to Canada seems like a dream.

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Not sure of your backgrounds and ages, but if you haven't done so do check out the immigration points calculators for countries like Canada.

Add to this - in the face of these new restrictions by DJT's executive order, Canada has upped its affirmation of taking in refugees.  From PM Trudeau:To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada

If you have reason to believe you will be persecuted in the US you might want to contact CIC - STEM fields or not.
I thought about it for sure. I am going to renew my passport BC it's about that time anyway, and I am saving up to take the English proficiency test. I wonder if, with my current job working in group homes, there is a need for similar type of work in Canada. Nova Scotia perhaps? Just churning my brain, trying not to get too paranoid.

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Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1751 on: February 04, 2017, 09:45:53 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
The reports I read said the opposite, coming from Lockheed, but the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
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Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1752 on: February 04, 2017, 10:56:22 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
The reports I read said the opposite, coming from Lockheed, but the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

What reports from Lockheed? This seems to pretty clearly show this all started before the election:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/trumps-claims-of-saving-millions-on-f-35-fighter-untrue-says-armed-services-committee-dem.html

Not super comprehensive, but then neither are Trump's claims of any of the things he's taking credit for.

Sydneystache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1753 on: February 05, 2017, 03:14:24 AM »
Well, according to the AP, Trump got angry with the PM of Australia over a pre-existing deal on refugees which was covered under the EO he signed.  Apparently he bragged about the size of his (ahem) electoral win and crowd sizes, then hung up.

Where in his "first 100 days" strategy did it say "piss off every one of our staunch allies"?

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

The policy is shit but the deal was done and should be honoured as is due. I don't agree with the policy but you don't hang up on the ally who has fought every fucking war America has got itself into since WW2.

So Trump has pissed off a lot of people in this country - and it was totally unneccessary. Our view is we sacrifice our soldiers for America's wars, get into some hundred million dollar defence contract to buy duds, support America in the region when it gets into trouble, and your current president shits all over us.

China is going to win out of President Trump and Australia may not be there for the next war America embarks on. Actually, Australians don't want any participation in any Trump war.

People are pissed.

And as for Sean Spicer, how much disrespect can you show our Prime Minister? Get his fucking name right. A twitter trend for mispronouncing his name two days in a row is just fucking rude.

*end rant*

Love youse all except for Trumpie and his cabal.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 03:24:45 AM by Sydneystache »

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1754 on: February 05, 2017, 09:52:48 AM »
I know the Trump supporters have largely abandoned this thread, but another area they seem intent to ignore - Bannon's Rasputin-like influence on the office:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/30/steve-bannon-is-making-sure-theres-no-white-house-paper-trail-trump-president/


A mom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1755 on: February 05, 2017, 04:03:51 PM »
Well, according to the AP, Trump got angry with the PM of Australia over a pre-existing deal on refugees which was covered under the EO he signed.  Apparently he bragged about the size of his (ahem) electoral win and crowd sizes, then hung up.

Where in his "first 100 days" strategy did it say "piss off every one of our staunch allies"?

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

The policy is shit but the deal was done and should be honoured as is due. I don't agree with the policy but you don't hang up on the ally who has fought every fucking war America has got itself into since WW2.

So Trump has pissed off a lot of people in this country - and it was totally unneccessary. Our view is we sacrifice our soldiers for America's wars, get into some hundred million dollar defence contract to buy duds, support America in the region when it gets into trouble, and your current president shits all over us.

China is going to win out of President Trump and Australia may not be there for the next war America embarks on. Actually, Australians don't want any participation in any Trump war.

People are pissed.

And as for Sean Spicer, how much disrespect can you show our Prime Minister? Get his fucking name right. A twitter trend for mispronouncing his name two days in a row is just fucking rude.

*end rant*

Love youse all except for Trumpie and his cabal.

Thanks for letting us know what it feels like there. Unfortunately, as bad as I thought. So sorry.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1756 on: February 05, 2017, 06:41:36 PM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1757 on: February 05, 2017, 11:58:31 PM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
Fear sells, and I firmly believe that fear is the single biggest reason he is currently president.

If the majority of people stopped being afraid, if they were to realize that they are living among the safest* country in the world, in one of the safest decades in history - that support would vanish.

*"'safest' here described as the probability that you will be killed or injured by the intentional act of someone else - i..e. from acts of terrorism, homicide, and violent crime. We're doing a great job of killing ourselves from drastically poor diet, drugs and alcohol and poor driving.
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BeginnerStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1758 on: February 06, 2017, 05:37:36 AM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
Fear sells, and I firmly believe that fear is the single biggest reason he is currently president.

If the majority of people stopped being afraid, if they were to realize that they are living among the safest* country in the world, in one of the safest decades in history - that support would vanish.

*"'safest' here described as the probability that you will be killed or injured by the intentional act of someone else - i..e. from acts of terrorism, homicide, and violent crime. We're doing a great job of killing ourselves from drastically poor diet, drugs and alcohol and poor driving.

Yeah but someone on Facebook told me Muslims are all bad and it got a lot of likes.

llorona

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1759 on: February 06, 2017, 01:11:31 PM »
Yeah but someone on Facebook told me Muslims are all bad and it got a lot of likes.

Aw, man. That's disturbing. According to a 2010 Pew Research report, 1.6 BILLION people -- or 23% of the world's population -- is Muslim.

Lagom

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acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1761 on: February 06, 2017, 02:17:04 PM »
I know the Trump supporters have largely abandoned this thread, but another area they seem intent to ignore - Bannon's Rasputin-like influence on the office:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/30/steve-bannon-is-making-sure-theres-no-white-house-paper-trail-trump-president/
There's not many of us on MMM. What was the poll? like 16%? The majority of ya'll sit around and agree with each other on the hideousness of Trump.... gets boring....

Bannon: That guy is a badass. He is deadly, seriously, carefully smart. It's tough to find information on him, and he gives few interviews. I did find this transcript of a meeting from 2104. Interesting insight into how the guy thinks. The recent EO's, responses, etc have been carefully planned (despite MSM continually hysterically screaming the opposite). He is 6 steps ahead of everyone, playing a strategic and focused game on a national and global chessboard. Watch the Administration's moves carefully, using game theory. It starts to make sense.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world?utm_term=.amwEPkV53r#.auDwJbKoRG

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

Australia: Irrelevant.
On the global strategy board, there are only 3 classifications of countries:
Enemy
Pivot
Irrelevant

Enemy: The Establishment, in the forms of Nato, EU, UN, etc. Particularly Merkel. ISIS/extreme Islam powers.
Pivot (to bring down the Establishment): France, possibly Italy. Note the Trump/Farage bromance. UK started the process. France may destroy the EU. Note recent LePen romance.
Irrelevant: everyone else. Including Australia, Canada, Mexico etc. They may headline as 'ally' or 'enemy' but it doesn't matter. They are not a pivot. Their worth is only what they bring to the game.

Ignore the noise. Watch the moves.

This is a friggin amazing time to be alive. The world order is changing. At least as interesting as late 80's early 90's, when Reagan played the long game to stress and finally destroy the USSR.
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SisterX

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1762 on: February 06, 2017, 02:38:07 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

Lagom - My biggest worry with that is about the media. If Trump can strong-arm providers not to show content unfavorable to him (and we all know he'd love to) then there goes our free press, any balance we might have claim to, and any reasonable fact-checking. :(

Acroy - My guess is that there's a reason there aren't many of you on MMM.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1763 on: February 06, 2017, 03:14:57 PM »
Acroy,  I'm slowly working through your article (getting ready to cook dinner at the same time).

Right now, I'm reading his first assertion. He states that the world was at peace before WWI, that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was the "pivot" that swiveled the world to a state of bloody war.  "But the thing that got us out of it, the organizing principle that met this, was not just the heroism of our people [...etc...] really the Judeo-Christian West versus atheists, right? The underlying principle is an enlightened form of capitalism, that capitalism really gave us the wherewithal."

What he's saying is that Judeo-Christianity led to wealth, which enabled one side "to take back continental Europe and to beat back a barbaric empire in the Far East". 

This first assertion is already debatable, isn't it? True, the Allies were richer than the Central powers, but they were also much more populous. I think that their victory had much more to do with geography, technology, and alliances, than their religion. But maybe he will go on to show what key elements of Judeo-Christianity made all these things possible.

jezebel

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1764 on: February 06, 2017, 03:22:46 PM »
...The recent EO's, responses, etc have been carefully planned (despite MSM continually hysterically screaming the opposite). He is 6 steps ahead of everyone, playing a strategic and focused game on a national and global chessboard. Watch the Administration's moves carefully, using game theory.

I don't know what the main stream media is screaming.  But I am certainly aware, as anyone with a nickle of sense is, that this is a carefully executed strategy, which includes a well-fitted set of blinders for us "liberals."  And it is certainly not a great time to be alive, in my humble opinion.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1765 on: February 06, 2017, 03:26:21 PM »
Still reading Bannon's talk...
He says we're at the beginning of a bloody conflict that could destroy our civilization unless he is heeded.

Next, he discusses two strands of Capitalism that he doesn't like, state-sponsored capitalism and "Objectivist School of libertarian capitalism". He also warns against increasing secularization in the West.

Describes rise of technologically sophisticated ISIS, and other militant Islamic groups that it may join up with. 

Then switches to, "So I think the discussion of, should we put a cap on wealth creation and distribution? Its something that should be at the heart of every Christian that is a capitalist What is the purpose of whatever Im doing with this wealth?"

Okay, so if he's going where I think he's going, he means to say that there should be no cap on wealth accumulation but that this wealth should be gathered with an eye to using it to fight an upcoming war.


sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1766 on: February 06, 2017, 03:57:36 PM »
Quote from: Poundwise link=topic=64129.msg1419176#msg1419176
What he's saying is that Judeo-Christianity led to wealth, which enabled one side "to take back continental Europe and to beat back a barbaric empire in the Far East". 

It's much worse than this.  Steve Bannon used to be a documentary film maker, and he  laid out his world view in a series of films.  Basically, he thinks the baby boomers ruined  America by rejecting the ideals of their parents that made America great.  He specifies that those values America abandoned, and needs to find again, are modesty, capitalism, religion, and patriarchy. 

He literally believes that gender equality is one of the four reasons why America is failing.

Not even shitting you.  Look it up.  This man now directs all US policy, since Trump doesn't seem to have any policy positions of his own.

In fact, Trump was reportedly outraged to find out that he had inadvertently elevated Steve Bannon to a seat on the National Security Council when he signed the Executive Order doing so, because he "hadn't been sufficiently briefled" on what Bannon was having him sign.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 04:02:12 PM by sol »

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1767 on: February 06, 2017, 04:06:31 PM »
Trump reads at a 4th grade level so that is why he signs EOs and doesn't know what is in them.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1768 on: February 06, 2017, 04:09:07 PM »
Still slogging through the Bannon interview, dinner is in oven.

-Next, asked about Breitbart, it's working men all over the world unite! They unite against "crony capitalists" and establishment conservatives. He throws in a shout-out to social conservatism.

-Then a discussion of the then-recent wins of the Tea Party over establishment Republicans, by working and middle class over crony capitalists. Followed by examples of crony capitalists using taxpayer money to finance their own wealth (my aside: if he doesn't like crony capitalists, why on earth is he with Trump?)

-Next in a response to a question about how to counter "this epidemic" (of poverty? of crony capitalism?), a discussion of the financial crisis of 2008 and how no one was made accountable, plus a need for bank reform.

-A question about how to counter tribalist, anti-capitalist, anti-globalist movements: He discusses  "this partnership of big government and corporatists" and the need to "sort out particularly this crony capitalism so that the benefits become more of this entrepreneurial spirit and that can flow back to working-class and middle-class people". (no specifics... does he mean break the partnership of gov't and corporations? otherwise change the flow of wealth?)

- Rails against bailouts, discusses the populist revolt.

- Feels that secularism is a greater threat to Judeo-Christianity than the Muslim world, but repeats that a global war is brewing and that action needed

- dismisses concerns about racist elements of UKIP, FN, and Tea party as being fringe elements

Okay, next he'll talk about Putin.

P.S. Gotta run, everybody is hungry, will finish it tonight.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 04:11:38 PM by Poundwise »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1769 on: February 06, 2017, 04:09:29 PM »
In the words of Steve Bannon:

Quote
People are looked at as commodities. I dont believe that our forefathers had that same belief.

Hmmph.   We're living in a golden age now.   M. Bannon can go back 100 years if he wants to.   Maybe he can join a union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_union_busting_in_the_United_States

Forefathers didn't believe people were commodities, my butt.


davef

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1770 on: February 06, 2017, 04:16:35 PM »
eeeeegh, some of you people are pessimists

"You will lose a lot of money in the short term."
"ACA will be gone you will loose your insurance"
"if you are in a gay marriage I hope you enjoyed it"
 


Let me start by saying, I didn't vote for Trump, I also didn't vote for Clinton. I thought Kasich was the most viable candidate, or Biden. Since one didn't make it very far and one didn't run we were left with two of the worst candidates in history. Unqualified and/or corrupt both of them. I voted for Johnson.



It sounds like he wants to leave gay marriage alone, that's a start.

I think we do need immigration reform, but his idea of reform seems extreme, hopefully the result will be something more sensible after all of this plays out.

I don't mind the wall. I've watched international travelers walk across the boarder myself while working in Southern California. I do think that securing our borders, whether that is a wall, fence, or increased patrols is sensible. A bipartisan almost unanimous senate vote in 2006 agreed, it was just never funded.  Afterwords however, I hope he offers a path to citizenship for those who are otherwise law abiding residents. I think Trump and his supporter grossly overstate the damage of illegal immigrants, while the left grossly overstate the benefits.

I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade. I hate abortions, but I also hate the alternative.  I feel like we should be able to have a constructive discussion and find ways to compromise and substantially minimize abortions by, providing contraception, education, plan B, improving adoption processes and outlawing late term abortions unless the mother's life is in jeprody. Unfortunately, that idea is inherently flawed because 1/3 of this country believes their faith precludes the formal while another 1/3 believes the latter is an assault on their rights.  I think both of those 2/3 need to remove their head from their hind quarters.

I'm all for mercy laws, unfortunately Trump's supreme court nominee isn't. states that currently have those could get overturned, but I doubt it.

I'm all for a raise in the federal minimum wage to at least $10. Its been frozen for far too long. $15 may be sensible in NYC or SFO where the cost of living is high, but $10 is still sensible in many places where a 2 bedroom apartment goes for $500/month. Unfortunately I dont think Trump will make any changes here. It looks like its up to the states.

I think its possible Trump could do good things for the economy. Its possible he could streamline the federal government and run it more like a business, hold people accountable and fire non-performers. Gary Johnson said he thought at least 20% waste could be eliminated from each sector of government. I don't have personal experience with every branch of government, but based on my experiences with the DOE, DOT, FAA, TSA, USFS, BLM, EPA and FDA, I would wager that statement could easily be true. In some cases, that 20% may be more like 50%. over 22million  Americans work for the government. That is more than 10% of working age Americans.

Some of his projects, keystone, etc, are certain to help the economy in the short term but I fear the long term implications. I agree, that transporting oil by rail (a 300% spike since 2008 and the result of Obama's policies) may be even worse for the environment than pipelines, but was hoping Obama would have approved the pipelines with some sensible protections in pace. I guess democrats are finally seeing when you play obstructionist and roll the dice on all or nothing sometimes you get nothing....

I sure hope we don't open up coal mining burning again. The only sensible thing to with Coal is leave it in the ground. Selling it to China (which has been what we have been doing increasingly over the past 8 years, again result of Obama's policies) was good for the environment on a local level, but far worse on the global level, and also bad from a national security standpoint. Don't stop the burning. Stop the mining, consider it a strategic reserve.

I'm glad he stopped TPP and hope he reforms NAFTA, since the invention of the internet, the ability of companies to outsource has make NAFTA a poor deal. Support and customer service jobs vanished. The USA is a net importer on Agriculture now since 2010. For the first time in our history, we buy more food than we make. Like just about every other civilized nation, we should use tarrifs on trade. I feel we have moral obligation to do so. our failure to do so has led to the subjugation and servitude of peoples globally, increased global emissions, and the loss of manufacturing and agriculture in America.  We owe it to a world to impose a tarrif on all nations imports to the USA that do not share our values. nations, that have no environmental law, no worker safety, no minimum wage or an artificially low one, no patent laws protection.  Imposing should tarriffs would have the affect of promoting those values, globally raising the bar, and your bring some manufacturing that is borderline profitable in the USA today back. Such as heavy industry and other items that are expensive to ship from china,and perishable items, such as agriculture. The USA cannot compete with third world manufacturing without tarriffs, except in jobs that can be heavily automated.

I think his idea of repealing onerous regulation has some merit, but if he uses the approach he used on immigration to implement this idea I am scared.   

I hope he puts stop to the Ethanol scam. But he hasn't said much about it so I doubt it.

Based on the tax plans I looked at, it simplifies things, and doesn't charge hardly anything for those who make less than 400k. Most of us should expect little or no changes.

For those saying, he keeps money overseas and is a hypocrite for calling for repatriation, no. He is actually right here. You take every write off you are legally allowed to on you taxes. If he can legally avoid taxes by keeping money offshore he SHOULD. But we should change the law so no one can legally do that.  Don't ever get upset with millionaires and billionaires for following the law, you would too. change the law. I am looking forward to this change.

I'm all for repeal and replace of ACA provided the replace is reasonable, and keeps the preexisting condition language and the coverage of boomerang kids., ACA is pretty messed up. I looked at getting plans since I am somewhat self employed and the plans were absolutely awful. 14k per year in premiums for a plan that covered almost nothing and had an out of pocket maximum of 8k! I think the ACA plans should be structured more like HDHP plans.

I think he could do some damage in the foreign relations department, I just hope its nothing that cannot be undone.
His hard line stance may do well against ISIS, and Russia may prove valuable as an ally in this fight. I'm not implying they should be trusted, but we dont have to trust them to have shared goals, just like in WWII

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1771 on: February 06, 2017, 04:50:50 PM »
over 22million  Americans work for the government. That is more than 10% of working age Americans.

Where did you get this horribly wrong number from?

In truth, there are about 2.8 million civilian federal employees, and about 1.5 million people in the US military.  This number has been essentially flat for decades, even as the size and scope of the government has grown tremendously.  Government now does more per federal employee than at any time in history.

Maybe you're also counting state and county and city employees?  Plus irrigation districts, home owner's associations, fire department retirees unions, part time librarians, and everyone who has ever received unemployment?  I just can't fathom how else you turn 2.79 million civil servants into 22 million people without deliberately trying to distort the truth.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1772 on: February 06, 2017, 05:11:21 PM »
Quote
It sounds like he wants to leave gay marriage alone, that's a start.
Two words scare me right now;  Mike Pense

Quote
I don't mind the wall.
I think the wall is entirely symbolic, and functionally worthless.  We are going to spend tens of billions building a symbol that won't curb immigration or drug-running.  It doesn't help that I think the symbol itself is an incredibly bad.

Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

Quote
Some of his projects, keystone, etc, are certain to help the economy in the short term but I fear the long term implications.
Again, this seems entirely symbolic and for the wrong reasons.  IT won't result in many full time jobs, and as long as we've got fracking it's unlikely that the tar coming from Canada will be desireable

Quote
I sure hope we don't open up coal mining burning again
me too.  BUt we've been explorting the hell out of it recently.

Quote
I'm glad he stopped TPP and hope he reforms NAFTA, since the invention of the internet, the ability of companies to outsource has make NAFTA a poor deal.
I'd like to see better deals too, but this approach seems kinda like going 'all-in' before your cards have been dealt.  The risk here is that once you pull out of a deal you must try to negotiate another.  Trump seems convinced that he can get deals that are far more favorable to the US by attacking the other partners, but we could just as easily wind up with a deal that is less favorable to the US.  I hate that uncertainty. This isn't his money he's playing with; it's millions of people's livelihoods.

Quote
I think his idea of repealing onerous regulation has some merit, but if he uses the approach he used on immigration to implement this idea I am scared.   
I feel the same. So far it's seemed to be more of an ideologically driven crusade, not a careful plan to maximize growth while retaining the most sensible regulations

Quote
Based on the tax plans I looked at, it simplifies things, and doesn't charge hardly anything for those who make less than 400k.
Beef #1 - it is perhaps the greatest windfall for those making over $400k, and could set up the next set of dynasties in the US.  Beef #2 - tax code complexity isn't as big an issue for the average tax payer as its made out to be.  My internal combustion engine in my car is rediculously complicted over what I had just 20 years ago, but that doesn't mean it's bad and we should go back to single-piston engines and no electronic ignition.

Quote
For those saying, he keeps money overseas and is a hypocrite....
My concern is with his conflicts of interest, and dozens of ethical observers have agreed.  Simply put *no one* can avoid making biased decisions when peronsal money is at stake. We now have a situation where the president, either intentionally or simply through basic psycology will be making decisions that benefit his own wealth.

Quote
I think he could do some damage in the foreign relations department,
I'm reminded of his campaign speeches about how "ISIS will be gone very, very quickly" and that these conflicts will be over almost immediately.  Here I think Trump is convinced of the US's superiority, and thinks that a bigger/smarter bomb can be used to solve all the international conflicts. We are unquestionably better equipped than our foes, but that won't win these battles. I'd have more respect for him if he just pulled out, but instead he seems to want to deploy his new war toys.  THe first special forces mission didn't go so well - I'm expecting the quagmire to get much worse in the next 2 years, and we'll throw money into the mud to try to fix it.

Quote
we dont have to trust them to have shared goals, just like in WWII
I'm not sure what our "shared goals" are here:  if we want few/no foreign terrorist attacks on US soil we've been pretty damn successful.  IF we want ISIL to completely fall under - that's going to be a lot harder, nad we'll risk the next threat popping up someplace else.  Peace in the middle east?  what makes Trump think he can achieve this were over a dozen administrations failed after two thousand years of fighting?
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1773 on: February 06, 2017, 05:25:55 PM »

Quote

Quote
I don't mind the wall.
I think the wall is entirely symbolic, and functionally worthless.  We are going to spend tens of billions building a symbol that won't curb immigration or drug-running.  It doesn't help that I think the symbol itself is an incredibly bad.





Especially because the administration will be wasting time and money on this, which plays well to Trump's base, while at the same time, he's not bothering to do his due diligence before authorizing "anti-terrorism" actions that go horribly awry. Or even bother to be in the Situation Room when it occurred.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-not-in-situation-room-yemen-raid-30-civilians-killed-us-navy-seal-dead-first-military-a7561596.html

All Trump really cares about are ratings. He doesn't seem to really care about protecting us, as far as I can tell.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1774 on: February 06, 2017, 05:39:31 PM »
Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

So I started reading Freakonomics last week. Here's a fun tidbit (in the sense that no abortion tidbit is ever fun):

They partly attribute the sharp drop-off in violent crime that happened in the 90s (when it had previously been rising) to Roe v. Wade. Fewer babies being born into high-risk families leading to fewer violent criminals.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1775 on: February 06, 2017, 05:54:03 PM »

This is a friggin amazing time to be alive. The world order is changing. At least as interesting as late 80's early 90's, when Reagan played the long game to stress and finally destroy the USSR.

I read through most of the article and I could see someone like Bannon taking us in both good and bad directions. He is obviously intelligent and very historically aware, though I wouldn't confuse that with being correct about all his assertions.

He has some intelligent views on what lead to our financial crises and the lack of accountability, though lacking some of the depth you may be able to get from an economist on the problem with globalism and the EU.

However I think his assertion that secularism is the greatest enemy to the judeo-christian western culture is a dangerous one and not one to be celebrated. But I am not surprised he would find support for it. I would argue Western culture has nearly fully embraced religious freedom which inevitably leads to some level of secularism. I think you(royal you) are lying to yourself if you believe the greatest thinkers over the last few millennia have not potentially been secular in their heart, but chose remain silent when faced with the power of the church in most Western nations.

Believing that judeo-christian faith is the only solution to our current ills as a culture stands to eventually undo the very religious freedom our country is supposedly founded on. To truly have religious freedom we have to have some form of government where laws that would spring from religious convictions can be challenged or we may as well all be back living under the church of England.

Science both social and physical combined with philosophy(possibly religiously guided) should be the tools we use to define morals and social constructs. Some good Judeo-christian values are certainly a strong part of current Western culture but that should not stop us from moving beyond its dated or broken constructs.

I think it is probably possible to formulate an argument that the maturity of judeo-christian faiths, that has given rise to the ability to be secular and move to and away from religion as the individual sees fit, is the very moderating force that has taken the sting away from the darker sides of religion that lead to holy wars in the past. Judeo-christian faiths are currently held in higher regard in Western nations because of their ability to peacefully coexists with secularism and other faiths not in spite of it. This gets at the very core of the separation of church and state, and that a nation can be based on a foundation not rooted in a single faith that is forced upon its people. To strongly believe otherwise is simply not very American.

Secularism, science, education, social freedom and capitalism are our greatest tools to help bring Muslims into the fold and moderate their religion into what judeo-christian faiths have become over millennia. Our only good choice is to continue to moderate their religion and remove the evil elements that are still practiced. The alternative is a bloody war to attempt to eradicate the faith. That probably isn't possible given its size.

Oh and Steve Bannon warning of an impending war is about as insightful as people predicting the next big crash. War is a cyclical and there will always be peaks and valleys of human conflict globally. There is no avoiding war until something fundamental changes about human nature.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1776 on: February 06, 2017, 06:01:49 PM »
Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

So I started reading Freakonomics last week. Here's a fun tidbit (in the sense that no abortion tidbit is ever fun):

They partly attribute the sharp drop-off in violent crime that happened in the 90s (when it had previously been rising) to Roe v. Wade. Fewer babies being born into high-risk families leading to fewer violent criminals.

I would think the bigger component to that is just family planning in general. In theory if we had near perfect contraception and safe sex for those who partake, there would be limited need for abortion since unwanted pregnancy would be an extremely rare issue.

At least some recent statistics seems to bare this out as the rate of abortions has been dropping.

I can almost sympathies with anti-abortion sentiment in certain cases even as an atheist. But the fight against contraception is the epitome  of religious oppression and insanity.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1777 on: February 06, 2017, 06:14:07 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

No need to apologise over your numpties. Glad acroy is not working for your State Department and berating his/her Australian equivalent as irrelevant. We are living in the age of #trumpdiplomacy after all.

What was amazing was our main newspaper printed all these apologies from Yanks on behalf of your prez the day after. John McCain's gesture was lovely - I have read a lot of pro-Trumpies decrying him but you know what, McCain knew what happened in Vietnam (Trump couldn't serve because of ---) and he knew our history. So McCain is a lightning rod for Aussies who still believe there are sane American politicians with foreign policy interest.

I'm sure the diplomatic lines are working overnight here but the has damage been done. Australia is thinking post-Trump. Bye bye pax americana.

As our former PM Rudd said, our alliance is ugly enough to overcome this snafu but what a big snafu. According to insiders, Turnbull's phone call was to gauge how unhinged Trump is...and clearly he totally is. That and he is Putin's Manchurian candidate.

The big problem for the US here is China is loving this chaos and they're the ones who are going to win the region over with soft power. It is hard to defend America with Trump in power.

Trump's attack on the fourth estate is resonating with China with its bigger propaganda piece. So yes, it's now president-sanctioned to shut the media with fake news. On the bright side, the UK House of Commons today don't want Trumpie speaking.

Anyway, best of luck y'all and we just wonder how the world will survive the next 4 years!

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1778 on: February 06, 2017, 06:16:18 PM »
What reports from Lockheed? This seems to pretty clearly show this all started before the election:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/trumps-claims-of-saving-millions-on-f-35-fighter-untrue-says-armed-services-committee-dem.html

Not super comprehensive, but then neither are Trump's claims of any of the things he's taking credit for.
I guess I was just going off what Marillyn Hewson, Lockheed CEO has tweeted and said in statements since meeting with Donald Trump in December.  I wouldn't base much off what Trump claims, but if the other party backs it up, there may be some truth.

Quote
Ive heard his message loud and clear about reducing the cost of the F-35, Hewson said in a statement. I gave him my personal commitment to drive the cost down aggressively.

Quote
Lockheed Martin credited President Donald Trump for helping to "accelerate negotiations" and "drive down the price" of what is already the most expensive weapons program in history.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 06:23:39 PM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1779 on: February 06, 2017, 06:18:21 PM »

I read through most of the article and I could see someone like Bannon taking us in both good and bad directions. He is obviously intelligent and very historically aware, though I wouldn't confuse that with being correct about all his assertions.

I'm not getting the "very historically aware" vibe from him.  All his ideas seem to spring from some sort of idealisation of his parents' generation and from a USA point of view.  That's a dangerously limited set of information on which to try to remake the world - if he knew more, he would do less.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1780 on: February 06, 2017, 06:18:43 PM »
Trump reads at a 4th grade level so that is why he signs EOs and doesn't know what is in them.


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sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1781 on: February 06, 2017, 06:40:31 PM »
(possibly religiously guided) should be the tools we use to define morals and social constructs. Some good Judeo-christian values are certainly a strong part of current Western culture

I feel compelled to point out that "good Judeo-Christian values" have been with us a lot longer than either Judaism or Christianity.  Don't make the mistake of believing that humanity was immoral before the Old Testament came along.

Advocating for those values does not in any way require the participation of any religion.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 07:22:07 PM by sol »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1782 on: February 06, 2017, 06:44:58 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

No need to apologise over your numpties. Glad acroy is not working for your State Department and berating his/her Australian equivalent as irrelevant. We are living in the age of #trumpdiplomacy after all.

What was amazing was our main newspaper printed all these apologies from Yanks on behalf of your prez the day after. John McCain's gesture was lovely - I have read a lot of pro-Trumpies decrying him but you know what, McCain knew what happened in Vietnam (Trump couldn't serve because of ---) and he knew our history. So McCain is a lightning rod for Aussies who still believe there are sane American politicians with foreign policy interest.

I'm sure the diplomatic lines are working overnight here but the has damage been done. Australia is thinking post-Trump. Bye bye pax americana.

As our former PM Rudd said, our alliance is ugly enough to overcome this snafu but what a big snafu. According to insiders, Turnbull's phone call was to gauge how unhinged Trump is...and clearly he totally is. That and he is Putin's Manchurian candidate.

The big problem for the US here is China is loving this chaos and they're the ones who are going to win the region over with soft power. It is hard to defend America with Trump in power.

Trump's attack on the fourth estate is resonating with China with its bigger propaganda piece. So yes, it's now president-sanctioned to shut the media with fake news. On the bright side, the UK House of Commons today don't want Trumpie speaking.

Anyway, best of luck y'all and we just wonder how the world will survive the next 4 years!

Has there been any mounting internal pressure on the government from citizens of Australia to allow these refugees asylum into the country? It sucks that America won't take them, I wonder if the story has ramped up any efforts to stop the AUS gov. from holding these people prisoner?
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1783 on: February 06, 2017, 06:51:48 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

No need to apologise over your numpties. Glad acroy is not working for your State Department and berating his/her Australian equivalent as irrelevant. We are living in the age of #trumpdiplomacy after all.

What was amazing was our main newspaper printed all these apologies from Yanks on behalf of your prez the day after. John McCain's gesture was lovely - I have read a lot of pro-Trumpies decrying him but you know what, McCain knew what happened in Vietnam (Trump couldn't serve because of ---) and he knew our history. So McCain is a lightning rod for Aussies who still believe there are sane American politicians with foreign policy interest.

I'm sure the diplomatic lines are working overnight here but the has damage been done. Australia is thinking post-Trump. Bye bye pax americana.

As our former PM Rudd said, our alliance is ugly enough to overcome this snafu but what a big snafu. According to insiders, Turnbull's phone call was to gauge how unhinged Trump is...and clearly he totally is. That and he is Putin's Manchurian candidate.

The big problem for the US here is China is loving this chaos and they're the ones who are going to win the region over with soft power. It is hard to defend America with Trump in power.

Trump's attack on the fourth estate is resonating with China with its bigger propaganda piece. So yes, it's now president-sanctioned to shut the media with fake news. On the bright side, the UK House of Commons today don't want Trumpie speaking.

Anyway, best of luck y'all and we just wonder how the world will survive the next 4 years!

Has there been any mounting internal pressure on the government from citizens of Australia to allow these refugees asylum into the country? It sucks that America won't take them, I wonder if the story has ramped up any efforts to stop the AUS gov. from holding these people prisoner?


Yes, of course. No one I have talked to at all supports the deal. See #bringthemhome

Legacy of previous admins that decided to have all these offshore detention centres instead of processing them on Australian soil. If Trump honours the deal, the reffos would probably be sent to Gitmo.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1784 on: February 06, 2017, 07:04:51 PM »
I guess I was just going off what Marillyn Hewson, Lockheed CEO has tweeted and said in statements since meeting with Donald Trump in December.  I wouldn't base much off what Trump claims, but if the other party backs it up, there may be some truth.

Quote
Ive heard his message loud and clear about reducing the cost of the F-35, Hewson said in a statement. I gave him my personal commitment to drive the cost down aggressively.

Quote
Lockheed Martin credited President Donald Trump for helping to "accelerate negotiations" and "drive down the price" of what is already the most expensive weapons program in history.

So the best we can surmise, even if we assume Hewson wasn't trying to suck up to someone who can send truckloads of money his way and take him at his exact words, is that Trump "accelerated" a process that was already happening. Color me unimpressed.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 07:58:29 PM by Lagom »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1785 on: February 06, 2017, 07:27:47 PM »
Yes, of course. No one I have talked to at all supports the deal. See #bringthemhome

Legacy of previous admins that decided to have all these offshore detention centres instead of processing them on Australian soil. If Trump honours the deal, the reffos would probably be sent to Gitmo.
After reading the few reports out from Nauru that have slipped passed the government censors, I'm not sure Gitmo would be a significant downgrade.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1786 on: February 06, 2017, 07:39:18 PM »
I guess I was just going off what Marillyn Hewson, Lockheed CEO has tweeted and said in statements since meeting with Donald Trump in December.  I wouldn't base much off what Trump claims, but if the other party backs it up, there may be some truth.

Quote
Ive heard his message loud and clear about reducing the cost of the F-35, Hewson said in a statement. I gave him my personal commitment to drive the cost down aggressively.

Quote
Lockheed Martin credited President Donald Trump for helping to "accelerate negotiations" and "drive down the price" of what is already the most expensive weapons program in history.

So the best we can surmise, even if we assume Hewson wasn't trying to suck up to someone who can send truckloads of money is way and take him at his exact words, is that Trump "accelerated" a process that was already happening. Color me unimpressed.
Meh. Some people are never happy. I try to take the good with the bad.


Speaking of more bad from internationl news for Trump: Pakistan arrests terrorist leaders, blames the USA and Trump. Hafiz Saeed arrested, the mastermind of the infamous 2008 Mumbai attacksPakistan blames the Trump administration for its actions.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1787 on: February 06, 2017, 08:17:09 PM »
I'm continuing my read of the Bannon article...
On Putin, Bannon points out correctly that Putin is a kleptocrat, but he admires his strategy of using nationalism and traditionalism to build his base (and we have seen that Bannon and Trump successfully used these in their playbook.)
While admitting that Putin is an imperial expansionist, Bannon feels that dealing with the Islamic caliphate is most important.

In the end, he says he believes we should take "a very, very, very aggressive stance against radical Islam," and that we are  already "in a war of immense proportions" for the survival of church and civilization. 

----

Okay. Very interesting. 
 The main questions I have are, if Bannon hates crony capitalists so much, why on earth is he so cozy with Trump and the GOP?  Also, does he propose to save us from the Islamic state by somehow triggering a global war?

It feels like he proposes fighting the enemy by assuming the properties of the enemy... government in bed with capitalists are the enemy, so... become the government, become the capitalist? Become nationalists with strong boundaries like Russia?
Fight ISIS, the religious would-be state, by becoming a religious state?

I still have an issue with his starting premise that Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon that will save us from the caliphate. Well, yes, in that we might fight, win, and avoid being overrun by Muslims. But it doesn't do us much good if we become like Daesh in cruelty, intolerance, aggression, etc. does it?

Christ is love, acroy.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1788 on: February 06, 2017, 08:20:46 PM »
Furthermore, RangerOne had a very good analysis, in my POV:
Quote
Judeo-christian faiths are currently held in higher regard in Western nations because of their ability to peacefully coexists with secularism and other faiths not in spite of it. This gets at the very core of the separation of church and state, and that a nation can be based on a foundation not rooted in a single faith that is forced upon its people. To strongly believe otherwise is simply not very American.

Secularism, science, education, social freedom and capitalism are our greatest tools to help bring Muslims into the fold and moderate their religion into what judeo-christian faiths have become over millennia. Our only good choice is to continue to moderate their religion and remove the evil elements that are still practiced. The alternative is a bloody war to attempt to eradicate the faith.



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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1789 on: February 06, 2017, 08:22:15 PM »
I'm continuing my read of the Bannon article...
On Putin, Bannon points out correctly that Putin is a kleptocrat, but he admires his strategy of using nationalism and traditionalism to build his base (and we have seen that Bannon and Trump successfully used these in their playbook.)
While admitting that Putin is an imperial expansionist, Bannon feels that dealing with the Islamic caliphate is most important.

In the end, he says he believes we should take "a very, very, very aggressive stance against radical Islam," and that we are  already "in a war of immense proportions" for the survival of church and civilization. 

----

Okay. Very interesting. 
 The main questions I have are, if Bannon hates crony capitalists so much, why on earth is he so cozy with Trump and the GOP?  Also, does he propose to save us from the Islamic state by somehow triggering a global war?

It feels like he proposes fighting the enemy by assuming the properties of the enemy... government in bed with capitalists are the enemy, so... become the government, become the capitalist? Become nationalists with strong boundaries like Russia?
Fight ISIS, the religious would-be state, by becoming a religious state?

I still have an issue with his starting premise that Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon that will save us from the caliphate. Well, yes, in that we might fight, win, and avoid being overrun by Muslims. But it doesn't do us much good if we become like Daesh in cruelty, intolerance, aggression, etc. does it?

Christ is love, acroy.

I have found trying to understand and follow Bannon's mental processes leaves me a little off-balance and sick to my stomach. I admire the effort and composure you are putting into this.
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Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1790 on: February 06, 2017, 08:46:24 PM »
Well, I have never wanted to look closely at him before, but since he seems to be the power behind the throne, we have to steel ourselves and look into the abyss (to mix metaphors madly.)

I have further developed my thought below:
I still have an issue with his starting premise that Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon that will save us from the caliphate. Well, yes, in that we might fight, win, and avoid being overrun by Muslims. But it doesn't do us much good if we become like Daesh in cruelty, intolerance, aggression, etc. does it?
Perhaps Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon after all. But not in the way Bannon thinks.  Perhaps tolerance and understanding, as the children of the love that is preached in churches-- could conquer radical Islam in a generation.

Northern Ireland, after all, saw peace in our generation after decades of terrorism and guerilla warfare; an all-out war is not needed to tear everything down.


Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1791 on: February 06, 2017, 08:54:19 PM »
Well, I have never wanted to look closely at him before, but since he seems to be the power behind the throne, we have to steel ourselves and look into the abyss (to mix metaphors madly.)

I have further developed my thought below:
I still have an issue with his starting premise that Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon that will save us from the caliphate. Well, yes, in that we might fight, win, and avoid being overrun by Muslims. But it doesn't do us much good if we become like Daesh in cruelty, intolerance, aggression, etc. does it?
Perhaps Judeo-Christianity is the secret weapon after all. But not in the way Bannon thinks.  Perhaps tolerance and understanding, as the children of the love that is preached in churches-- could conquer radical Islam in a generation.

Northern Ireland, after all, saw peace in our generation after decades of terrorism and guerilla warfare; an all-out war is not needed to tear everything down.

I posted this in another thread. Glenn Back would agree with you (and I with him in this instance). Worth a read for those who haven't seen it:

http://www.glennbeck.com/2017/02/02/both-the-uc-berkeley-anarchists-and-milo-yiannopoulos-are-despicable-but-i-stand-with-one/

Lagom

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1792 on: February 06, 2017, 09:02:21 PM »
Meh. Some people are never happy. I try to take the good with the bad.

I'm perfectly happy with my life and think your philosophy is a fine one in general, but it will take a lot more than a pretty inconsequential "victory" that was going to happen with our without Trump for me to see this one random rounding error of a dent in our spending to be a silver lining.

My own hope for finding good in the bad is that Trump's pathological obsession with being adored eventually leads him to reject the deeply unsettling influence of Bannon (@acroy him being smart in no way reassures anyone) and actually listen to the majority of Americans.

I suppose some of the regulations he wants to end are bad ones, but others (re: net neutrality) are fundamentally important so its hard to take that good with the overwhelmingly worse bad either.

But hey, we're only in week 3...

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1793 on: February 06, 2017, 09:21:11 PM »
Furthermore, RangerOne had a very good analysis, in my POV:

I agree it's an outstanding analysis, but it's from about 2004 and we haven't done shit in that direction since then.

The national security apparatus spent approximately a billion dollars on trying to understand the root causes of 9/11 and then formulate a long term action plan to deal with those causes.  Their suggestion was exactly what RangerOne suggested, but none of that analysis was ever put into practice.  Quite the contrary, we have only continued to assist the radicalization of Islam over time.  Trump and Bannon are just the icing on that cake.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1794 on: February 06, 2017, 10:29:26 PM »
I'm glad he stopped TPP and hope he reforms NAFTA, since the invention of the internet, the ability of companies to outsource has make NAFTA a poor deal. Support and customer service jobs vanished. The USA is a net importer on Agriculture now since 2010. For the first time in our history, we buy more food than we make. Like just about every other civilized nation, we should use tarrifs on trade. I feel we have moral obligation to do so. our failure to do so has led to the subjugation and servitude of peoples globally, increased global emissions, and the loss of manufacturing and agriculture in America.  We owe it to a world to impose a tarrif on all nations imports to the USA that do not share our values. nations, that have no environmental law, no worker safety, no minimum wage or an artificially low one, no patent laws protection.  Imposing should tarriffs would have the affect of promoting those values, globally raising the bar, and your bring some manufacturing that is borderline profitable in the USA today back. Such as heavy industry and other items that are expensive to ship from china,and perishable items, such as agriculture. The USA cannot compete with third world manufacturing without tarriffs, except in jobs that can be heavily automated.

I couldn't believe your statement regarding the US being a net importer of agriculture; turns out, neither would the USDA:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/us-agricultural-trade-data-update/interactive-chart-us-monthly-agricultural-trade/

NAFTA's impact on net US employment levels is small (between zero and 850K net jobs lost), see for example:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/mar/07/bernie-s/sanders-overshoots-nafta-job-losses/

TPP would have addressed some of the deficiencies you cited regarding consistency in IP regulation and environmental/labor standards. And from a geopolitical perspective, a successful ratification of TPP would have counterbalanced China's ascendancy through an increase in the US's soft-power by having established trade policy in their backyard; the presumption is if China takes the lead in setting the tone for multi-lateral trade deals in east Asia, the outcome will be worse for the US than the alternative of TPP.

Finally, the tariffs required to bring back the sort of manufacturing being romanticized in the current political environment would be so onerous as to cause a variety of currently extant global supply chains to collapse. Manufacturing in the US is increasingly automated and increasingly a high-skill activity. Why low-skill back-breaking or mind-addling assembly work as seen in China is fetishized as some ideal to strive for is hard to understand. The US has been successful by looking forward at what's next rather than looking backwards while choking back nostalgic tears.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1795 on: February 06, 2017, 11:02:57 PM »
According to the NYTimes article, Trump is pissed at Bannon over the EOs, especially the NSC one; this article might be falling into the trap of engaging in speculative Trumplinology but is nonetheless interesting in the power dynamics potentially at play:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/05/us/politics/trump-white-house-aides-strategy.html

Regarding Bannon, while it might be unwarranted to misunderestimate his intelligence simply because he always appears as if he just woke up from a drunken nap on top of a sidewalk grate, I am reminded of what Deep Throat said of Nixon's men during Watergate -- "...the truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand".

Bannon's comments on Islam are a mixed bag. On the one hand, it's hard to argue in the short- to medium-run that Islamic extremism, which kills fewer people in the US each year than anal beads (I assume), is the existential threat he depicts it to be. However, even an Economist magazine-carrying internationalist at-heart like myself recognizes that there are differences between cultures and that moreover, those differences can be judged on their merits. There is a good part of the Muslim world (though it pays to decouple the religion itself from the various cultures it is embedded within) that is illiberal, anti-reason, is deeply dysfunctional in its institutions, inferior in its morality, and is hostile towards the West.

While the US and (it seems to a much lesser extent) Europe has some capacity to gradually absorb immigrants from dysfunctional civilizations, there is a breaking point at which assimilation fails. The US is extraordinarily good at assimilation, so this argument might play out better in Europe (e.g. Identitarians).

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1796 on: February 06, 2017, 11:28:26 PM »
New Zealand has repeatedly offered to take some of the refugees detained by Australia on Nauru and Manus Island but the Aussies said no.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/307428/pm-stands-by-offer-to-take-150-asylum-seekers

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1797 on: February 06, 2017, 11:41:14 PM »
New Zealand has repeatedly offered to take some of the refugees detained by Australia on Nauru and Manus Island but the Aussies said no.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/307428/pm-stands-by-offer-to-take-150-asylum-seekers

New Zealand is to Australia what Canada is to the USA.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1798 on: February 06, 2017, 11:44:48 PM »
Quote
TPP would have addressed some of the deficiencies you cited regarding consistency in IP regulation and environmental/labor standards. And from a geopolitical perspective, a successful ratification of TPP would have counterbalanced China's ascendancy through an increase in the US's soft-power by having established trade policy in their backyard; the presumption is if China takes the lead in setting the tone for multi-lateral trade deals in east Asia, the outcome will be worse for the US than the alternative of TPP.

Already in the works - Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership

Also, China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to counter the World Bank
https://www.aiib.org/en/index.html

Quote
Finally, the tariffs required to bring back the sort of manufacturing being romanticized in the current political environment would be so onerous as to cause a variety of currently extant global supply chains to collapse. Manufacturing in the US is increasingly automated and increasingly a high-skill activity. Why low-skill back-breaking or mind-addling assembly work as seen in China is fetishized as some ideal to strive for is hard to understand. The US has been successful by looking forward at what's next rather than looking backwards while choking back nostalgic tears.

America is strong in its technology industry - you lead the world in it. Sad that so much xenophobia/romanticism directed at manufacturing industry - we lost ours too but we'd swap your Silicon Valley for any of our sectors any time...(except for the tax evasion bit)

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1799 on: February 06, 2017, 11:53:10 PM »
New Zealand has repeatedly offered to take some of the refugees detained by Australia on Nauru and Manus Island but the Aussies said no.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/307428/pm-stands-by-offer-to-take-150-asylum-seekers
Sad. :( Such an easy request to say yes to.
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