Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 131594 times)

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1700 on: February 02, 2017, 06:31:05 AM »
Many people consider him "acceptable" because he will (presumably) not shift the balance of the court.  Its worth mentioning that the court has been conservative since the early 1970s. With this affirmation the most likely scenario is a court that retains a conservative position for the next decade or more, regardless of whether or not RBG, SGB or Kennedy are replaced during this presidential term.
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Inaya

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1701 on: February 02, 2017, 07:16:46 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1702 on: February 02, 2017, 07:56:48 AM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.

Per his conversation with the Australian PM yesterday, individuals applying for refugee status through official channels are now illegal immigrants. Potato/potahto?
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golden1

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1703 on: February 02, 2017, 08:24:25 AM »
Quote
There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

The Republicans stole a seat, and got away with it.  So the process IS broken.  If the democrats take the high road, guess what will happen next time this same scenario happens.  They will pull the same shit again.  And again.  The Republicans decided long ago that demographics aren't working in their favor, so they would bend the system to the point of breaking to ensure minority rule. 


Tasty Pinecones

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1704 on: February 02, 2017, 10:10:09 AM »
+1. One word "stategery." As batshit crazy as Trump is, he knows exactly what he is doing. It's amazing (well not really) how many of his die hard supporters are still defending him all in the name of "jobs and border security."

I've been wondering how many of those WalMart shoppers (KMart, Target, etc) will appreciate the tariffs and prices that tariffs might lead to. The big box shoppers I know will drive miles to get something on sale and cheap and almost always made in China.

In one sentence they'll talk about what a great deal they got on their thing. In the next sentence they'll begin a lecture about jobs and immigrants and Chinese junk.

So border security and foreign Muslim terrorists are suddenly a huge problem? Trump's policies will likely radicalize more folks on already easily influenced.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1705 on: February 02, 2017, 10:10:58 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1706 on: February 02, 2017, 10:19:26 AM »
The Republicans stole a seat, and got away with it.  So the process IS broken.  If the democrats take the high road, guess what will happen next time this same scenario happens.  They will pull the same shit again.  And again.  The Republicans decided long ago that demographics aren't working in their favor, so they would bend the system to the point of breaking to ensure minority rule.

I would say beyond the demographics, look what's happened in South Dakota, a largely Republican red state:

http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/01/sd-senate-strikes-voter-approved-ethics-law/97333962/

That's pretty fucked up if you ask me.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1707 on: February 02, 2017, 11:27:27 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.

Unique User

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1708 on: February 02, 2017, 11:50:58 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.


^^^^^Agree, stonewall him if they don't agree to at least give Garland a hearing.  I had my fingers crossed for Hardiman, there was always the chance that he was a Souter in disguise.  He was a Notre Dame grad, there the same time I was and although ND is conservative there is (or at least was) a strong social justice undercurrent. 

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1709 on: February 02, 2017, 11:58:16 AM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1710 on: February 02, 2017, 12:03:35 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/trump-immigrants/515310/ 

From the article:

"The language is vague, but immigration law experts I spoke with on background said it might mean that millions of legal immigrants who have ever received public assistance—as half of native-born Americans currently do—would be targeted for deportation. "

I left a message on one of my senators' vmails to fight this vigorously.
But... but... but... Trump only wants to deport illegal immigrants. Because they're breaking the law.

Seriously I don't get this. Immigrants pay their taxes just like everyone who is native born (well, except Trump), so they have the right to the same social services as every other taxpayer.

Per his conversation with the Australian PM yesterday, individuals applying for refugee status through official channels are now illegal immigrants. Potato/potahto?
I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.
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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1711 on: February 02, 2017, 12:45:42 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.
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Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1712 on: February 02, 2017, 12:59:35 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.
That would be truly awesome. It hurts a bit as an American to have to hope that some other country steps up to do the right thing. While Australia is to blame for the conditions these people are trapped in, and for doing its best to hide it from the world, 1200 people is peanuts to accept; and such a low risk of extremism- I mean, they weren't even tryin to make it to America, so it's hard to argue these are sleeper terrorists just waiting to strike the Red, White and Blue.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1713 on: February 02, 2017, 01:07:07 PM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...

Or just offer to vote on Gorsuch as soon as Trump releases his tax returns. 

Permitting a sitting president's SCOTUS nominee to get a hearing and a vote is not written in the Constitution but is well-established tradition.  So is releasing your tax returns when you are running for/in office as President.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1714 on: February 02, 2017, 01:26:57 PM »

I really, truly feel for those people.  They have been abused, literally abused, by Australia for years. They deserve to be in Australia, or as a strong second choice, moved to another country. These are true refugees, and the entire world has left them to languish in a hell hole for over two years. If Australia doesn't want them, and America doesn't want them, maybe Canada will step up? Such a terrible situation.

I would not be surprised if PM Trudeau steps up and makes a public statement saying "If the US won't honor its agreement with Australia, Canada stands ready to be the leader!"
He's basically already said as much when he promised sanctuary for anyone caught in limbo from the ban, as well as taking in a healthy number of refugees relative to the size of the Canadian population.

Trudeau's statement would be largely popular here, Canada would look like the moral leader and ultimately it wouldn't change their existing policy much.  US/Trump looses more moral high ground.
That would be truly awesome. It hurts a bit as an American to have to hope that some other country steps up to do the right thing. While Australia is to blame for the conditions these people are trapped in, and for doing its best to hide it from the world, 1200 people is peanuts to accept; and such a low risk of extremism- I mean, they weren't even tryin to make it to America, so it's hard to argue these are sleeper terrorists just waiting to strike the Red, White and Blue.

Trump and his cabinet don't really care. They need to save face even if that means these folks get sent back to where they came from and were killed. I mean what would his followers think if he suddenly reversed course for a few in desperate need folks? They know they are no threat but don't give a shit. Politics are more important than human decency.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1715 on: February 02, 2017, 05:34:32 PM »
Increased Russia-backed violence in Ukraine, just days after Trump's first official phone call with Putin (for which apparently all recording devices were turned off):

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-fighting-avdiivka-1.3962203

Can we directly blame this on Trump? Not yet, I suppose. But at a minimum it's clear he did a terrible job at diplomacy here, and given his love of Putin it seems likely Trump at least indirectly emboldened him.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1716 on: February 02, 2017, 05:55:22 PM »
Absolutely the decision should be carefully weighed. There is a process in place for considering SCOTUS appointments, and as far as I can tell that process is not broken. Republicans did an end run around that process with the last nomination. Suggesting that the Democrats attempt, or supporting for, the same maneuver is not a positive direction for political action in this country, and makes them just as bad as Republicans. (IMO)

If the nominee is not suited or unwanted, then they should be voted down, regardless of the party nominating them.

The process broke during the last presidency. Were you not there? 10 months and no hearings and no vote seems pretty broken to me.

I for someone who votes for Democrats, and for a lot of progressives and liberals who vote for Democrats don't mind if they stonewall. Give us a nominee that we like and then maybe we can talk.

Don't bother. MM will give lip service to "one side's just as bad as the other" but will always defend the Republican moves. "Oh sure, they did this bad thing but Dems should be held to a higher standard than that. Even if Republicans are about to tank the country and doing something deeply unpopular, Dems shouldn't fight dirty. I'd lose [my already non-existent] respect for them." Go back and read his comments. That's pretty much how they all go.

I agree. Stonewall the shit out of this guy. He's not for religious freedom unless your definition of that is the freedom for Christians to impose their beliefs on others. He might be a moderate Republican, but he's not, in any sense of the word, an actual moderate. That was Garland, the nominee that Republicans shut things down over. The one they changed the rules of engagement over. Fuck them.
So, so, so sick of tu qouque fallacy...

Oh, I'm not trying to invalidate your opinions or your arguments. I'm just saying that trying to have a constructive debate with you is rather useless because you seem to be one of those people who knows what they know and no one else will change your mind.

For the most part, I've been getting a lot of constructive stuff out of debating these topics. Mostly, other posters have articulately argued things that I saw/felt but didn't know how to express. On occasion, people have brought new information to light that has been helpful in informing my opinions. I see no such evolution in your attitudes. I might be doing you a disservice, but that's what I've seen.

As for realistic impacts, shitting all over other world leaders  (except his good buddy Putin, of course), actively trying to destroy the environment in the name of "business", and trying to put forth the idea that religion is greater than the law when it comes to discrimination.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1717 on: February 02, 2017, 09:04:07 PM »
I haven't been reading the Off-Topic forums for long, but I think it says something for Metric Mouse that he cares enough about these issues enough to discuss them in depth, and is clear-eyed enough to see how bad Trump is, despite his conservative/libertarian leaning.  I will admit to the same fault, SisterX, with the difference being that I give the Democrats the benefit of the doubt... and, of course, I am right. ;) 

Anyway,
If the dems do roadblock him, the nuclear option will be used, and political capital will be spent now instead of on a possible future selection (like if RBG dies).

 Had it not been for Garland, maybe there would have been a case for an easy confirmation. But this is not a time for building up  political capital... the Reps have not shown themselves to be honorable of late, anyway.  This is where Dems show that they have the toughness to hold together.
I just love how these exact same arguments were used by the other side during the last presidency. It's very frustrating that neither side will work with the other, the only reason being that they're the other side.

It IS frustrating. There is no trust any more. Rules and precedent seem to be flying out the window. There will be no Gang of 14 to save the day.

But any change to the current no-compromise, slice-the-baby-in-half culture, would have to come from the group in power.  I don't see how this can happen under Trump, unless what's left of the moderate Republican party stands up to Trump, the Tea Partiers, and Bannon's crowd. Even so-- no, I don't see healing happening under this president until it gets so bad that Trumps own supporters desert him (or, I suppose, it gets so wonderful that Trump's detractors flock to him, but that just doesn't seem very likely so far, even accounting for my liberal bias.)

In this climate, it is like the last few moves before checkmate, no point in going through the motions is there? Filibuster, nuclear option, shutdown. Though I don't know what kind of havoc Trump would wreak out of a shutdown... does not seem to bother him to have a nonfunctional government.

« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 09:13:47 PM by Poundwise »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1718 on: February 03, 2017, 10:08:46 AM »
Democrats in the senate need to grow some balls and ACTUALLY filibuster everything. Just stand there and give 5 hour speeches, every democractic senator. This way even if the repubs change the rules to end debate at 51 votes you can still take up time by actually being on the floor of the senate.

Why should dems do this? 1) It worked for republicans. They showed that if your party isn't in the white house, it's not in your interest to do anything because you can't take credit for it and you'll end up winning elections because you can point to the white house doing nothing, 2) more people voted democratic than republican and the demographics will come along eventually to override the gerrymandering in the house and the voter suppression efforts in some states

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1719 on: February 03, 2017, 10:32:00 AM »
On a more positive, constructive note, for the first time in my life, people are more excited about using the SuperBowl as a platform to elevate their protesting activity than watching some boring, overhyped game.  Houston will be in the news expressing outrage at what has been seen as overreaching and divisive policy making trampling the freedoms of legal immigrants, as well as preaching free speech, inclusiveness, and acceptance. 

There are some terrible policies in the works to deport immigrants that use social services as well as deny immigrants that might require any benefits.  I can only hope that the world sees that this is not how all Americans think and do not support this wild swing toward protectionism, nationalism, and beligerence.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1720 on: February 03, 2017, 11:34:50 AM »
I have yet to hear a convincing argument why we should be treating Iran like we do. There are many other countries that sponsor terrorism against the US and our allies at a much more demonstrable level. Iran is also an enemy of pretty much all of those countries and yet because we have such deep business ties with them (looking at you Saudi Arabia), we pretend like Iran is the problem. A war with them is probably among the scariest realistic impacts I could see emerging from a Trump presidency.

Because Trump's team needs a boogieman or scapegoat - just like Bush Jr did with Iraq after 9/11. Just like Hitler did with the Jews and all the European minorities.

I feel like this playbook is pretty superficial.  I guess it would be more difficult to actually FIX something rather than just breaking things?
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 11:44:03 AM by Tasty Pinecones »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1721 on: February 03, 2017, 11:45:46 AM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1722 on: February 03, 2017, 11:46:26 AM »
Democrats in the senate need to grow some balls and ACTUALLY filibuster everything. Just stand there and give 5 hour speeches, every democractic senator. This way even if the repubs change the rules to end debate at 51 votes you can still take up time by actually being on the floor of the senate.

Why should dems do this? 1) It worked for republicans. They showed that if your party isn't in the white house, it's not in your interest to do anything because you can't take credit for it and you'll end up winning elections because you can point to the white house doing nothing, 2) more people voted democratic than republican and the demographics will come along eventually to override the gerrymandering in the house and the voter suppression efforts in some states

Absolutely. Republicans face no repercussions from their base.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1723 on: February 03, 2017, 12:00:24 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1724 on: February 03, 2017, 12:10:59 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?
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NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1725 on: February 03, 2017, 12:20:36 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1726 on: February 03, 2017, 12:27:25 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1727 on: February 03, 2017, 12:33:41 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.
I doubt he has immunity. He runs a peace center, and does some work on peace negotiations and treaties. But honestly, he generally thinks he is more important than he is, so no one is getting very upset by this ordeal. But it might be an idea to sort this out before they mess with someone who really is important.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1728 on: February 03, 2017, 12:40:35 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1729 on: February 03, 2017, 12:47:16 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.
I doubt he has immunity. He runs a peace center, and does some work on peace negotiations and treaties. But honestly, he generally thinks he is more important than he is, so no one is getting very upset by this ordeal. But it might be an idea to sort this out before they mess with someone who really is important.
The problem is that, at least if all passports are the "same" as the one I saw, they don't say if you have diplomatic immunity or not.  So given they stopped him, and held him without knowing, could be a problem.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1730 on: February 03, 2017, 12:56:37 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1731 on: February 03, 2017, 02:17:03 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1732 on: February 03, 2017, 02:39:35 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.
Considering he is from my home town, and I know his family, he must have done a fabulous job covering his true background. His cousin was a bishop in the State Church, his uncle was a Secretary of state (for Church and Education); I guess the entire family was in on it? Did they adopt him, switch him out for an Iranian, or are they all from Iran? Also, it is very scary this wasn't picked up when he visited previous US presidents at the White House, or when he mingled with all types of state leaders through his two periodes as PM, or his work on peace and human rights. Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.
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jrhampt

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1733 on: February 03, 2017, 05:28:32 PM »
Pretty sure dragoncar was being sarcastic 😉

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1734 on: February 03, 2017, 05:45:30 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.
Considering he is from my home town, and I know his family, he must have done a fabulous job covering his true background. His cousin was a bishop in the State Church, his uncle was a Secretary of state (for Church and Education); I guess the entire family was in on it? Did they adopt him, switch him out for an Iranian, or are they all from Iran? Also, it is very scary this wasn't picked up when he visited previous US presidents at the White House, or when he mingled with all types of state leaders through his two periodes as PM, or his work on peace and human rights. Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.
Thank Mother freaking Earth for Trump.  It's exactly these sort of dangerous sleeper agents we need the most protection against! :D
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1735 on: February 03, 2017, 05:53:37 PM »
Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.

It is the goodest security their is. It is so bigly. Everyone else's is SAD!
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1736 on: February 03, 2017, 06:00:33 PM »
Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.

It is the goodest security their is. It is so bigly. Everyone else's is SAD!

No more security! Judges want terrorists to win! SAD!

It could be a showdown between the executive and judicial branch. This is where the real coup magic happens.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1737 on: February 04, 2017, 12:02:31 AM »
I have to start to wonder if the realistic impact of a Trump presidency is that the US gets sued by lots of aggrieved parties and win.  Just as Trump strategically declared bankruptcy in order to get ahead in the business world, maybe this mindset leads the US into a new avenue of turmoil.  Sure, on one hand, he is bogged down in litigation and maybe Trump takes his foot off the gas, but even these first 100 days of silly 'keystone cops' Executive Orders will provide enough ammunition for the professionals of the world to sue the US taxpayer via Trump.  Think of the legacy that can be left behind by amateurs surrounded by people that are also new to the game. 

When I saw what life was like inside a courtroom for the first time (jury duty, as one of 12 jurors), it was disorienting.  I can only imagine that business outsiders (and Trump the ultimate unprepared) stepping out on the hallowed grounds of global politics from the highest POV in the Oval Office, might not have any idea of the fact that picking up the phone and then hanging up prematurely might just send the world into one more day of less than optimal use of its time and resources.  But forcing his inexperience on others is probably costing the US untold future dollars. 
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1738 on: February 04, 2017, 05:05:53 AM »
Pretty sure dragoncar was being sarcastic 😉

Pretty sure I got it in the first go ;)
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StarBright

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1739 on: February 04, 2017, 06:51:15 AM »
I suspect we'll start to notice more stuff like this:

http://theslot.jezebel.com/someone-is-paying-strangers-online-to-beg-for-betsy-dev-1791976320

Wasn't sure where to post that but figured this thread is as good as any.

There seems to be such an obvious outcry against Devos (anecdotally from both sides of the aisle - but I know a lot of Republican public school teachers) that I would not be shocked if the above link were true.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1740 on: February 04, 2017, 07:26:55 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1741 on: February 04, 2017, 07:55:05 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.

To clarify, that is $700 million off of a batch of 90 planes. Which is probably literally not worth the time he put into the effort as president.

The whole point of being president is not to get one company at a time to make you a better deal via twitter. You don't have the time for that. It's to run the whole *system* to be more efficient. That would probably, in this case, mean just cutting back funding for the program whatever you think is an appropriate amount (politically hard) and letting the military/contractors figure it out from there.

-W

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1742 on: February 04, 2017, 08:28:03 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.

To clarify, that is $700 million off of a batch of 90 planes. Which is probably literally not worth the time he put into the effort as president.

The whole point of being president is not to get one company at a time to make you a better deal via twitter. You don't have the time for that. It's to run the whole *system* to be more efficient. That would probably, in this case, mean just cutting back funding for the program whatever you think is an appropriate amount (politically hard) and letting the military/contractors figure it out from there.

-W
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1743 on: February 04, 2017, 09:31:06 AM »
Now this is good.   Democracy at work!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/airlines-allow-passengers-to-board-after-court-suspends-trump-travel-ban/article33902945/?cmpid=rss1

This is the sort of behaviour I expect to see from a country governed by rule of law with a strong constitution and an independent judiciary.   Apparently the judge was appointed by a Republican president, as well.    President   Trump seems unhappy though, and is complaining on Twitter.

waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1744 on: February 04, 2017, 09:34:36 AM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1745 on: February 04, 2017, 09:52:57 AM »
I'm betting the total costs of the legal proceedings which are going to result from Trump's batshitcrazy unconstitutional orders and eventual impeachment is going to be far greater than $700m.
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1746 on: February 04, 2017, 10:26:28 AM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

This has already been posted but it has relevance.

Quote from: David Frum
The business community learned its lesson early. “You work for me, you don’t criticize me,” the president was reported to have told one major federal contractor, after knocking billions off his company’s stock-market valuation with an angry tweet. Wise business leaders take care to credit Trump’s personal leadership for any good news, and to avoid saying anything that might displease the president or his family.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1747 on: February 04, 2017, 12:12:17 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
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