Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 367415 times)

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1700 on: February 03, 2017, 12:40:35 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1701 on: February 03, 2017, 12:47:16 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.
I would also imagine they usually go easy on people with diplomat passports?

That's how it's supposed to work. Detaining someone on a diplomatic passport without a really good reason may actually be some kind of treaty violation. I'm not sure.
Depends if that person also had diplomatic immunity or not.
I doubt he has immunity. He runs a peace center, and does some work on peace negotiations and treaties. But honestly, he generally thinks he is more important than he is, so no one is getting very upset by this ordeal. But it might be an idea to sort this out before they mess with someone who really is important.
The problem is that, at least if all passports are the "same" as the one I saw, they don't say if you have diplomatic immunity or not.  So given they stopped him, and held him without knowing, could be a problem.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1702 on: February 03, 2017, 12:56:37 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

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dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1703 on: February 03, 2017, 02:17:03 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.

gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1704 on: February 03, 2017, 02:39:35 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.
Considering he is from my home town, and I know his family, he must have done a fabulous job covering his true background. His cousin was a bishop in the State Church, his uncle was a Secretary of state (for Church and Education); I guess the entire family was in on it? Did they adopt him, switch him out for an Iranian, or are they all from Iran? Also, it is very scary this wasn't picked up when he visited previous US presidents at the White House, or when he mingled with all types of state leaders through his two periodes as PM, or his work on peace and human rights. Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1705 on: February 03, 2017, 05:28:32 PM »
Pretty sure dragoncar was being sarcastic 😉

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1706 on: February 03, 2017, 05:45:30 PM »
Well, on a positive side, detaining the former PM of Norway (and protestant pastor) who was planning to attend a prayer Meeting in the US, should remove any fear that Trump's travel ban is based in race or religion:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/03/former-norway-pm-bondevik-held-washington-dulles-airport-2014-visit-iran

The travel ban also isn't supposed to apply to people from countries outside the six specifically mentioned. Whether or not the person ever went there isn't a factor.

I realize they're just making it up as they go along, but damn.

Unfortunately, "from" isn't a defined term in the order.   It could mean a lot of things besides "born in"

Given that his point of origin for this trip wasn't one of the six countries, I don't see how anyone could reasonably apply "from" to a Norwegian who traveled somewhere else two or three years ago.

Reasonably?  HAHAHA.  This guy is clearly from Iran.  He just spent an intervening 4 years in Norway to hide it.
Considering he is from my home town, and I know his family, he must have done a fabulous job covering his true background. His cousin was a bishop in the State Church, his uncle was a Secretary of state (for Church and Education); I guess the entire family was in on it? Did they adopt him, switch him out for an Iranian, or are they all from Iran? Also, it is very scary this wasn't picked up when he visited previous US presidents at the White House, or when he mingled with all types of state leaders through his two periodes as PM, or his work on peace and human rights. Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.
Thank Mother freaking Earth for Trump.  It's exactly these sort of dangerous sleeper agents we need the most protection against! :D
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DoubleDown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1707 on: February 03, 2017, 05:53:37 PM »
Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.

It is the goodest security their is. It is so bigly. Everyone else's is SAD!
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1708 on: February 03, 2017, 06:00:33 PM »
Good thing you have Trump in office now, who has implemented GOOD security.

It is the goodest security their is. It is so bigly. Everyone else's is SAD!

No more security! Judges want terrorists to win! SAD!

It could be a showdown between the executive and judicial branch. This is where the real coup magic happens.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1709 on: February 04, 2017, 12:02:31 AM »
I have to start to wonder if the realistic impact of a Trump presidency is that the US gets sued by lots of aggrieved parties and win.  Just as Trump strategically declared bankruptcy in order to get ahead in the business world, maybe this mindset leads the US into a new avenue of turmoil.  Sure, on one hand, he is bogged down in litigation and maybe Trump takes his foot off the gas, but even these first 100 days of silly 'keystone cops' Executive Orders will provide enough ammunition for the professionals of the world to sue the US taxpayer via Trump.  Think of the legacy that can be left behind by amateurs surrounded by people that are also new to the game. 

When I saw what life was like inside a courtroom for the first time (jury duty, as one of 12 jurors), it was disorienting.  I can only imagine that business outsiders (and Trump the ultimate unprepared) stepping out on the hallowed grounds of global politics from the highest POV in the Oval Office, might not have any idea of the fact that picking up the phone and then hanging up prematurely might just send the world into one more day of less than optimal use of its time and resources.  But forcing his inexperience on others is probably costing the US untold future dollars. 
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gaja

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1710 on: February 04, 2017, 05:05:53 AM »
Pretty sure dragoncar was being sarcastic 😉

Pretty sure I got it in the first go ;)
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StarBright

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1711 on: February 04, 2017, 06:51:15 AM »
I suspect we'll start to notice more stuff like this:

http://theslot.jezebel.com/someone-is-paying-strangers-online-to-beg-for-betsy-dev-1791976320

Wasn't sure where to post that but figured this thread is as good as any.

There seems to be such an obvious outcry against Devos (anecdotally from both sides of the aisle - but I know a lot of Republican public school teachers) that I would not be shocked if the above link were true.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1712 on: February 04, 2017, 07:26:55 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1713 on: February 04, 2017, 07:55:05 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.

To clarify, that is $700 million off of a batch of 90 planes. Which is probably literally not worth the time he put into the effort as president.

The whole point of being president is not to get one company at a time to make you a better deal via twitter. You don't have the time for that. It's to run the whole *system* to be more efficient. That would probably, in this case, mean just cutting back funding for the program whatever you think is an appropriate amount (politically hard) and letting the military/contractors figure it out from there.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1714 on: February 04, 2017, 08:28:03 AM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/f-35-lockheed-martin-cost-reduction/index.html

So for one small positive: Lockheed Martin is crediting Trump with slashing 700 Million USD off the cost of the F 35 fighter.

To clarify, that is $700 million off of a batch of 90 planes. Which is probably literally not worth the time he put into the effort as president.

The whole point of being president is not to get one company at a time to make you a better deal via twitter. You don't have the time for that. It's to run the whole *system* to be more efficient. That would probably, in this case, mean just cutting back funding for the program whatever you think is an appropriate amount (politically hard) and letting the military/contractors figure it out from there.

-W
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1715 on: February 04, 2017, 09:31:06 AM »
Now this is good.   Democracy at work!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/airlines-allow-passengers-to-board-after-court-suspends-trump-travel-ban/article33902945/?cmpid=rss1

This is the sort of behaviour I expect to see from a country governed by rule of law with a strong constitution and an independent judiciary.   Apparently the judge was appointed by a Republican president, as well.    President   Trump seems unhappy though, and is complaining on Twitter.
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waltworks

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1716 on: February 04, 2017, 09:34:36 AM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1717 on: February 04, 2017, 09:52:57 AM »
I'm betting the total costs of the legal proceedings which are going to result from Trump's batshitcrazy unconstitutional orders and eventual impeachment is going to be far greater than $700m.
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1718 on: February 04, 2017, 10:26:28 AM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

This has already been posted but it has relevance.

Quote from: David Frum
The business community learned its lesson early. “You work for me, you don’t criticize me,” the president was reported to have told one major federal contractor, after knocking billions off his company’s stock-market valuation with an angry tweet. Wise business leaders take care to credit Trump’s personal leadership for any good news, and to avoid saying anything that might displease the president or his family.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1719 on: February 04, 2017, 12:12:17 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
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EverCurious

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1722 on: February 04, 2017, 06:06:54 PM »
I'm truly terrified, but I have nowhere I think my husband and I can go. We don't exactly have STEM jobs so moving to Canada seems like a dream.

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Not sure of your backgrounds and ages, but if you haven't done so do check out the immigration points calculators for countries like Canada.

Add to this - in the face of these new restrictions by DJT's executive order, Canada has upped its affirmation of taking in refugees.  From PM Trudeau:To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Diversity is our strength #WelcomeToCanada

If you have reason to believe you will be persecuted in the US you might want to contact CIC - STEM fields or not.
I thought about it for sure. I am going to renew my passport BC it's about that time anyway, and I am saving up to take the English proficiency test. I wonder if, with my current job working in group homes, there is a need for similar type of work in Canada. Nova Scotia perhaps? Just churning my brain, trying not to get too paranoid.

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Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1723 on: February 04, 2017, 09:45:53 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
The reports I read said the opposite, coming from Lockheed, but the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1724 on: February 04, 2017, 10:56:22 PM »
I don't know, 700 mil is 700 mil.I'll take it every day of the week, whether from a tweet or a phone call or a persoanl meeting. Quite a bit more efficient than an 6 month investigation by a subcommittee involving dozens of people.    It would take Congress to cut back the funding, and with one side stonewalling the other in everything, I don't see that happening. Small miracles, I guess.

For context, the budget is about $3.8 trillion. It is literally a rounding error, in that it is a .00018th (700 mil divided by 3.8 trillion) of the budget.

Bludgeoning fellow politicians to systemically look at military spending (to be fair, Trump has said he wants to *increase* this) is a far more effective use of the president's time and effort, and he's *good* at bludgeoning people via Twitter!

I mean, I'm not complaining about the government spending less money on a stupid airplane with a fragile slow dumb expensive human inside it that we arguably don't need. But the president can't just browbeat every single company in the United States. He has to think systemically/strategically about this kind of issue. We don't have the stupid F-35 because we didn't negotiate the right deal. We have it because we have an out of control military industrial complex. Saving a few bucks here and there is spitting into the wind.

-W

From what I've read this $700MM reduction in costs has little to do with the Trump administration here.  Claiming false credit would be my read...
The reports I read said the opposite, coming from Lockheed, but the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

What reports from Lockheed? This seems to pretty clearly show this all started before the election:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/03/trumps-claims-of-saving-millions-on-f-35-fighter-untrue-says-armed-services-committee-dem.html

Not super comprehensive, but then neither are Trump's claims of any of the things he's taking credit for.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1725 on: February 05, 2017, 03:14:24 AM »
Well, according to the AP, Trump got angry with the PM of Australia over a pre-existing deal on refugees which was covered under the EO he signed.  Apparently he bragged about the size of his (ahem) electoral win and crowd sizes, then hung up.

Where in his "first 100 days" strategy did it say "piss off every one of our staunch allies"?

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

The policy is shit but the deal was done and should be honoured as is due. I don't agree with the policy but you don't hang up on the ally who has fought every fucking war America has got itself into since WW2.

So Trump has pissed off a lot of people in this country - and it was totally unneccessary. Our view is we sacrifice our soldiers for America's wars, get into some hundred million dollar defence contract to buy duds, support America in the region when it gets into trouble, and your current president shits all over us.

China is going to win out of President Trump and Australia may not be there for the next war America embarks on. Actually, Australians don't want any participation in any Trump war.

People are pissed.

And as for Sean Spicer, how much disrespect can you show our Prime Minister? Get his fucking name right. A twitter trend for mispronouncing his name two days in a row is just fucking rude.

*end rant*

Love youse all except for Trumpie and his cabal.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2017, 03:24:45 AM by Sydneystache »

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1726 on: February 05, 2017, 09:52:48 AM »
I know the Trump supporters have largely abandoned this thread, but another area they seem intent to ignore - Bannon's Rasputin-like influence on the office:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/30/steve-bannon-is-making-sure-theres-no-white-house-paper-trail-trump-president/


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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1727 on: February 05, 2017, 04:03:51 PM »
Well, according to the AP, Trump got angry with the PM of Australia over a pre-existing deal on refugees which was covered under the EO he signed.  Apparently he bragged about the size of his (ahem) electoral win and crowd sizes, then hung up.

Where in his "first 100 days" strategy did it say "piss off every one of our staunch allies"?

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

The policy is shit but the deal was done and should be honoured as is due. I don't agree with the policy but you don't hang up on the ally who has fought every fucking war America has got itself into since WW2.

So Trump has pissed off a lot of people in this country - and it was totally unneccessary. Our view is we sacrifice our soldiers for America's wars, get into some hundred million dollar defence contract to buy duds, support America in the region when it gets into trouble, and your current president shits all over us.

China is going to win out of President Trump and Australia may not be there for the next war America embarks on. Actually, Australians don't want any participation in any Trump war.

People are pissed.

And as for Sean Spicer, how much disrespect can you show our Prime Minister? Get his fucking name right. A twitter trend for mispronouncing his name two days in a row is just fucking rude.

*end rant*

Love youse all except for Trumpie and his cabal.

Thanks for letting us know what it feels like there. Unfortunately, as bad as I thought. So sorry.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1728 on: February 05, 2017, 06:41:36 PM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1729 on: February 05, 2017, 11:58:31 PM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
Fear sells, and I firmly believe that fear is the single biggest reason he is currently president.

If the majority of people stopped being afraid, if they were to realize that they are living among the safest* country in the world, in one of the safest decades in history - that support would vanish.

*"'safest' here described as the probability that you will be killed or injured by the intentional act of someone else - i..e. from acts of terrorism, homicide, and violent crime. We're doing a great job of killing ourselves from drastically poor diet, drugs and alcohol and poor driving.
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

MasterStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1730 on: February 06, 2017, 05:37:36 AM »
Although we Americans are blithely celebrating our silly universal gathering under Football, Trump is paranoidly calling the world down on our happy celebration of universiality.  Like we should be expect to be attacked.  Like someone is going to bomb this enthusiastic celebration of being young.  Maybe if you have a lot of money invested in the advertisements or companies that profit, you get stressed about the profits that may be lost, but the rest of us are just watching for fun. 

How the hell did this happen?  And, more concerning, where does it go from here?
Fear sells, and I firmly believe that fear is the single biggest reason he is currently president.

If the majority of people stopped being afraid, if they were to realize that they are living among the safest* country in the world, in one of the safest decades in history - that support would vanish.

*"'safest' here described as the probability that you will be killed or injured by the intentional act of someone else - i..e. from acts of terrorism, homicide, and violent crime. We're doing a great job of killing ourselves from drastically poor diet, drugs and alcohol and poor driving.

Yeah but someone on Facebook told me Muslims are all bad and it got a lot of likes.

llorona

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1731 on: February 06, 2017, 01:11:31 PM »
Yeah but someone on Facebook told me Muslims are all bad and it got a lot of likes.

Aw, man. That's disturbing. According to a 2010 Pew Research report, 1.6 BILLION people -- or 23% of the world's population -- is Muslim.

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acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1733 on: February 06, 2017, 02:17:04 PM »
I know the Trump supporters have largely abandoned this thread, but another area they seem intent to ignore - Bannon's Rasputin-like influence on the office:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/30/steve-bannon-is-making-sure-theres-no-white-house-paper-trail-trump-president/
There's not many of us on MMM. What was the poll? like 16%? The majority of ya'll sit around and agree with each other on the hideousness of Trump.... gets boring....

Bannon: That guy is a badass. He is deadly, seriously, carefully smart. It's tough to find information on him, and he gives few interviews. I did find this transcript of a meeting from 2104. Interesting insight into how the guy thinks. The recent EO's, responses, etc have been carefully planned (despite MSM continually hysterically screaming the opposite). He is 6 steps ahead of everyone, playing a strategic and focused game on a national and global chessboard. Watch the Administration's moves carefully, using game theory. It starts to make sense.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world?utm_term=.amwEPkV53r#.auDwJbKoRG

What Trump has done to the Australia-USA relationship has batfucked it out of hell. Turnbull is a millionaire businessman (sure not a billionaire), Rhodes scholar, 'Spycatcher' lawyer, not some puny little political rep that can be bullied by him. He has literally shocked the diplomatic circles here in this country. Sure we didn't think he'd be this much of a shithead but by being incredibly rude to OUR  national political leader, he's given Australia a massive fuck you.

Australia: Irrelevant.
On the global strategy board, there are only 3 classifications of countries:
Enemy
Pivot
Irrelevant

Enemy: The Establishment, in the forms of Nato, EU, UN, etc. Particularly Merkel. ISIS/extreme Islam powers.
Pivot (to bring down the Establishment): France, possibly Italy. Note the Trump/Farage bromance. UK started the process. France may destroy the EU. Note recent LePen romance.
Irrelevant: everyone else. Including Australia, Canada, Mexico etc. They may headline as 'ally' or 'enemy' but it doesn't matter. They are not a pivot. Their worth is only what they bring to the game.

Ignore the noise. Watch the moves.

This is a friggin amazing time to be alive. The world order is changing. At least as interesting as late 80's early 90's, when Reagan played the long game to stress and finally destroy the USSR.
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SisterX

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1734 on: February 06, 2017, 02:38:07 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

Lagom - My biggest worry with that is about the media. If Trump can strong-arm providers not to show content unfavorable to him (and we all know he'd love to) then there goes our free press, any balance we might have claim to, and any reasonable fact-checking. :(

Acroy - My guess is that there's a reason there aren't many of you on MMM.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1735 on: February 06, 2017, 03:14:57 PM »
Acroy,  I'm slowly working through your article (getting ready to cook dinner at the same time).

Right now, I'm reading his first assertion. He states that the world was at peace before WWI, that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was the "pivot" that swiveled the world to a state of bloody war.  "But the thing that got us out of it, the organizing principle that met this, was not just the heroism of our people [...etc...] really the Judeo-Christian West versus atheists, right? The underlying principle is an enlightened form of capitalism, that capitalism really gave us the wherewithal."

What he's saying is that Judeo-Christianity led to wealth, which enabled one side "to take back continental Europe and to beat back a barbaric empire in the Far East". 

This first assertion is already debatable, isn't it? True, the Allies were richer than the Central powers, but they were also much more populous. I think that their victory had much more to do with geography, technology, and alliances, than their religion. But maybe he will go on to show what key elements of Judeo-Christianity made all these things possible.

jezebel

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1736 on: February 06, 2017, 03:22:46 PM »
...The recent EO's, responses, etc have been carefully planned (despite MSM continually hysterically screaming the opposite). He is 6 steps ahead of everyone, playing a strategic and focused game on a national and global chessboard. Watch the Administration's moves carefully, using game theory.

I don't know what the main stream media is screaming.  But I am certainly aware, as anyone with a nickle of sense is, that this is a carefully executed strategy, which includes a well-fitted set of blinders for us "liberals."  And it is certainly not a great time to be alive, in my humble opinion.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1737 on: February 06, 2017, 03:26:21 PM »
Still reading Bannon's talk...
He says we're at the beginning of a bloody conflict that could destroy our civilization unless he is heeded.

Next, he discusses two strands of Capitalism that he doesn't like, state-sponsored capitalism and "Objectivist School of libertarian capitalism". He also warns against increasing secularization in the West.

Describes rise of technologically sophisticated ISIS, and other militant Islamic groups that it may join up with. 

Then switches to, "So I think the discussion of, should we put a cap on wealth creation and distribution? It’s something that should be at the heart of every Christian that is a capitalist — “What is the purpose of whatever I’m doing with this wealth?"

Okay, so if he's going where I think he's going, he means to say that there should be no cap on wealth accumulation but that this wealth should be gathered with an eye to using it to fight an upcoming war.


sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1738 on: February 06, 2017, 03:57:36 PM »
Quote from: Poundwise link=topic=64129.msg1419176#msg1419176
What he's saying is that Judeo-Christianity led to wealth, which enabled one side "to take back continental Europe and to beat back a barbaric empire in the Far East". 

It's much worse than this.  Steve Bannon used to be a documentary film maker, and he  laid out his world view in a series of films.  Basically, he thinks the baby boomers ruined  America by rejecting the ideals of their parents that made America great.  He specifies that those values America abandoned, and needs to find again, are modesty, capitalism, religion, and patriarchy. 

He literally believes that gender equality is one of the four reasons why America is failing.

Not even shitting you.  Look it up.  This man now directs all US policy, since Trump doesn't seem to have any policy positions of his own.

In fact, Trump was reportedly outraged to find out that he had inadvertently elevated Steve Bannon to a seat on the National Security Council when he signed the Executive Order doing so, because he "hadn't been sufficiently briefled" on what Bannon was having him sign.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 04:02:12 PM by sol »
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

jim555

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1739 on: February 06, 2017, 04:06:31 PM »
Trump reads at a 4th grade level so that is why he signs EOs and doesn't know what is in them.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1740 on: February 06, 2017, 04:09:07 PM »
Still slogging through the Bannon interview, dinner is in oven.

-Next, asked about Breitbart, it's working men all over the world unite! They unite against "crony capitalists" and establishment conservatives. He throws in a shout-out to social conservatism.

-Then a discussion of the then-recent wins of the Tea Party over establishment Republicans, by working and middle class over crony capitalists. Followed by examples of crony capitalists using taxpayer money to finance their own wealth (my aside: if he doesn't like crony capitalists, why on earth is he with Trump?)

-Next in a response to a question about how to counter "this epidemic" (of poverty? of crony capitalism?), a discussion of the financial crisis of 2008 and how no one was made accountable, plus a need for bank reform.

-A question about how to counter tribalist, anti-capitalist, anti-globalist movements: He discusses  "this partnership of big government and corporatists" and the need to "sort out particularly this crony capitalism so that the benefits become more of this entrepreneurial spirit and that can flow back to working-class and middle-class people". (no specifics... does he mean break the partnership of gov't and corporations? otherwise change the flow of wealth?)

- Rails against bailouts, discusses the populist revolt.

- Feels that secularism is a greater threat to Judeo-Christianity than the Muslim world, but repeats that a global war is brewing and that action needed

- dismisses concerns about racist elements of UKIP, FN, and Tea party as being fringe elements

Okay, next he'll talk about Putin.

P.S. Gotta run, everybody is hungry, will finish it tonight.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2017, 04:11:38 PM by Poundwise »

scottish

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1741 on: February 06, 2017, 04:09:29 PM »
In the words of Steve Bannon:

Quote
People are looked at as commodities. I don’t believe that our forefathers had that same belief.

Hmmph.   We're living in a golden age now.   M. Bannon can go back 100 years if he wants to.   Maybe he can join a union.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_union_busting_in_the_United_States

Forefathers didn't believe people were commodities, my butt.

Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart.

davef

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1742 on: February 06, 2017, 04:16:35 PM »
eeeeegh, some of you people are pessimists

"You will lose a lot of money in the short term."
"ACA will be gone you will loose your insurance"
"if you are in a gay marriage I hope you enjoyed it"
 


Let me start by saying, I didn't vote for Trump, I also didn't vote for Clinton. I thought Kasich was the most viable candidate, or Biden. Since one didn't make it very far and one didn't run we were left with two of the worst candidates in history. Unqualified and/or corrupt both of them. I voted for Johnson.



It sounds like he wants to leave gay marriage alone, that's a start.

I think we do need immigration reform, but his idea of reform seems extreme, hopefully the result will be something more sensible after all of this plays out.

I don't mind the wall. I've watched international travelers walk across the boarder myself while working in Southern California. I do think that securing our borders, whether that is a wall, fence, or increased patrols is sensible. A bipartisan almost unanimous senate vote in 2006 agreed, it was just never funded.  Afterwords however, I hope he offers a path to citizenship for those who are otherwise law abiding residents. I think Trump and his supporter grossly overstate the damage of illegal immigrants, while the left grossly overstate the benefits.

I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade. I hate abortions, but I also hate the alternative.  I feel like we should be able to have a constructive discussion and find ways to compromise and substantially minimize abortions by, providing contraception, education, plan B, improving adoption processes and outlawing late term abortions unless the mother's life is in jeprody. Unfortunately, that idea is inherently flawed because 1/3 of this country believes their faith precludes the formal while another 1/3 believes the latter is an assault on their rights.  I think both of those 2/3 need to remove their head from their hind quarters.

I'm all for mercy laws, unfortunately Trump's supreme court nominee isn't. states that currently have those could get overturned, but I doubt it.

I'm all for a raise in the federal minimum wage to at least $10. Its been frozen for far too long. $15 may be sensible in NYC or SFO where the cost of living is high, but $10 is still sensible in many places where a 2 bedroom apartment goes for $500/month. Unfortunately I dont think Trump will make any changes here. It looks like its up to the states.

I think its possible Trump could do good things for the economy. Its possible he could streamline the federal government and run it more like a business, hold people accountable and fire non-performers. Gary Johnson said he thought at least 20% waste could be eliminated from each sector of government. I don't have personal experience with every branch of government, but based on my experiences with the DOE, DOT, FAA, TSA, USFS, BLM, EPA and FDA, I would wager that statement could easily be true. In some cases, that 20% may be more like 50%. over 22million  Americans work for the government. That is more than 10% of working age Americans.

Some of his projects, keystone, etc, are certain to help the economy in the short term but I fear the long term implications. I agree, that transporting oil by rail (a 300% spike since 2008 and the result of Obama's policies) may be even worse for the environment than pipelines, but was hoping Obama would have approved the pipelines with some sensible protections in pace. I guess democrats are finally seeing when you play obstructionist and roll the dice on all or nothing sometimes you get nothing....

I sure hope we don't open up coal mining burning again. The only sensible thing to with Coal is leave it in the ground. Selling it to China (which has been what we have been doing increasingly over the past 8 years, again result of Obama's policies) was good for the environment on a local level, but far worse on the global level, and also bad from a national security standpoint. Don't stop the burning. Stop the mining, consider it a strategic reserve.

I'm glad he stopped TPP and hope he reforms NAFTA, since the invention of the internet, the ability of companies to outsource has make NAFTA a poor deal. Support and customer service jobs vanished. The USA is a net importer on Agriculture now since 2010. For the first time in our history, we buy more food than we make. Like just about every other civilized nation, we should use tarrifs on trade. I feel we have moral obligation to do so. our failure to do so has led to the subjugation and servitude of peoples globally, increased global emissions, and the loss of manufacturing and agriculture in America.  We owe it to a world to impose a tarrif on all nations imports to the USA that do not share our values. nations, that have no environmental law, no worker safety, no minimum wage or an artificially low one, no patent laws protection.  Imposing should tarriffs would have the affect of promoting those values, globally raising the bar, and your bring some manufacturing that is borderline profitable in the USA today back. Such as heavy industry and other items that are expensive to ship from china,and perishable items, such as agriculture. The USA cannot compete with third world manufacturing without tarriffs, except in jobs that can be heavily automated.

I think his idea of repealing onerous regulation has some merit, but if he uses the approach he used on immigration to implement this idea I am scared.   

I hope he puts stop to the Ethanol scam. But he hasn't said much about it so I doubt it.

Based on the tax plans I looked at, it simplifies things, and doesn't charge hardly anything for those who make less than 400k. Most of us should expect little or no changes.

For those saying, he keeps money overseas and is a hypocrite for calling for repatriation, no. He is actually right here. You take every write off you are legally allowed to on you taxes. If he can legally avoid taxes by keeping money offshore he SHOULD. But we should change the law so no one can legally do that.  Don't ever get upset with millionaires and billionaires for following the law, you would too. change the law. I am looking forward to this change.

I'm all for repeal and replace of ACA provided the replace is reasonable, and keeps the preexisting condition language and the coverage of boomerang kids., ACA is pretty messed up. I looked at getting plans since I am somewhat self employed and the plans were absolutely awful. 14k per year in premiums for a plan that covered almost nothing and had an out of pocket maximum of 8k! I think the ACA plans should be structured more like HDHP plans.

I think he could do some damage in the foreign relations department, I just hope its nothing that cannot be undone.
His hard line stance may do well against ISIS, and Russia may prove valuable as an ally in this fight. I'm not implying they should be trusted, but we dont have to trust them to have shared goals, just like in WWII

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1743 on: February 06, 2017, 04:50:50 PM »
over 22million  Americans work for the government. That is more than 10% of working age Americans.

Where did you get this horribly wrong number from?

In truth, there are about 2.8 million civilian federal employees, and about 1.5 million people in the US military.  This number has been essentially flat for decades, even as the size and scope of the government has grown tremendously.  Government now does more per federal employee than at any time in history.

Maybe you're also counting state and county and city employees?  Plus irrigation districts, home owner's associations, fire department retirees unions, part time librarians, and everyone who has ever received unemployment?  I just can't fathom how else you turn 2.79 million civil servants into 22 million people without deliberately trying to distort the truth.
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nereo

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1744 on: February 06, 2017, 05:11:21 PM »
Quote
It sounds like he wants to leave gay marriage alone, that's a start.
Two words scare me right now;  Mike Pense

Quote
I don't mind the wall.
I think the wall is entirely symbolic, and functionally worthless.  We are going to spend tens of billions building a symbol that won't curb immigration or drug-running.  It doesn't help that I think the symbol itself is an incredibly bad.

Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

Quote
Some of his projects, keystone, etc, are certain to help the economy in the short term but I fear the long term implications.
Again, this seems entirely symbolic and for the wrong reasons.  IT won't result in many full time jobs, and as long as we've got fracking it's unlikely that the tar coming from Canada will be desireable

Quote
I sure hope we don't open up coal mining burning again
me too.  BUt we've been explorting the hell out of it recently.

Quote
I'm glad he stopped TPP and hope he reforms NAFTA, since the invention of the internet, the ability of companies to outsource has make NAFTA a poor deal.
I'd like to see better deals too, but this approach seems kinda like going 'all-in' before your cards have been dealt.  The risk here is that once you pull out of a deal you must try to negotiate another.  Trump seems convinced that he can get deals that are far more favorable to the US by attacking the other partners, but we could just as easily wind up with a deal that is less favorable to the US.  I hate that uncertainty. This isn't his money he's playing with; it's millions of people's livelihoods.

Quote
I think his idea of repealing onerous regulation has some merit, but if he uses the approach he used on immigration to implement this idea I am scared.   
I feel the same. So far it's seemed to be more of an ideologically driven crusade, not a careful plan to maximize growth while retaining the most sensible regulations

Quote
Based on the tax plans I looked at, it simplifies things, and doesn't charge hardly anything for those who make less than 400k.
Beef #1 - it is perhaps the greatest windfall for those making over $400k, and could set up the next set of dynasties in the US.  Beef #2 - tax code complexity isn't as big an issue for the average tax payer as its made out to be.  My internal combustion engine in my car is rediculously complicted over what I had just 20 years ago, but that doesn't mean it's bad and we should go back to single-piston engines and no electronic ignition.

Quote
For those saying, he keeps money overseas and is a hypocrite....
My concern is with his conflicts of interest, and dozens of ethical observers have agreed.  Simply put *no one* can avoid making biased decisions when peronsal money is at stake. We now have a situation where the president, either intentionally or simply through basic psycology will be making decisions that benefit his own wealth.

Quote
I think he could do some damage in the foreign relations department,
I'm reminded of his campaign speeches about how "ISIS will be gone very, very quickly" and that these conflicts will be over almost immediately.  Here I think Trump is convinced of the US's superiority, and thinks that a bigger/smarter bomb can be used to solve all the international conflicts. We are unquestionably better equipped than our foes, but that won't win these battles. I'd have more respect for him if he just pulled out, but instead he seems to want to deploy his new war toys.  THe first special forces mission didn't go so well - I'm expecting the quagmire to get much worse in the next 2 years, and we'll throw money into the mud to try to fix it.

Quote
we dont have to trust them to have shared goals, just like in WWII
I'm not sure what our "shared goals" are here:  if we want few/no foreign terrorist attacks on US soil we've been pretty damn successful.  IF we want ISIL to completely fall under - that's going to be a lot harder, nad we'll risk the next threat popping up someplace else.  Peace in the middle east?  what makes Trump think he can achieve this were over a dozen administrations failed after two thousand years of fighting?
"Do not confuse complexity with superiority"

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1745 on: February 06, 2017, 05:25:55 PM »

Quote

Quote
I don't mind the wall.
I think the wall is entirely symbolic, and functionally worthless.  We are going to spend tens of billions building a symbol that won't curb immigration or drug-running.  It doesn't help that I think the symbol itself is an incredibly bad.





Especially because the administration will be wasting time and money on this, which plays well to Trump's base, while at the same time, he's not bothering to do his due diligence before authorizing "anti-terrorism" actions that go horribly awry. Or even bother to be in the Situation Room when it occurred.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-not-in-situation-room-yemen-raid-30-civilians-killed-us-navy-seal-dead-first-military-a7561596.html

All Trump really cares about are ratings. He doesn't seem to really care about protecting us, as far as I can tell.
Please note: Libertarian4321 did not vote for either Hillary or Trump. He voted for Gary Johnson, who was the Libertarian candidate.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1746 on: February 06, 2017, 05:39:31 PM »
Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

So I started reading Freakonomics last week. Here's a fun tidbit (in the sense that no abortion tidbit is ever fun):

They partly attribute the sharp drop-off in violent crime that happened in the 90s (when it had previously been rising) to Roe v. Wade. Fewer babies being born into high-risk families leading to fewer violent criminals.
The first step is acknowledging you have a problem, right?

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/digging-out-of-a-hole/

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1747 on: February 06, 2017, 05:54:03 PM »

This is a friggin amazing time to be alive. The world order is changing. At least as interesting as late 80's early 90's, when Reagan played the long game to stress and finally destroy the USSR.

I read through most of the article and I could see someone like Bannon taking us in both good and bad directions. He is obviously intelligent and very historically aware, though I wouldn't confuse that with being correct about all his assertions.

He has some intelligent views on what lead to our financial crises and the lack of accountability, though lacking some of the depth you may be able to get from an economist on the problem with globalism and the EU.

However I think his assertion that secularism is the greatest enemy to the judeo-christian western culture is a dangerous one and not one to be celebrated. But I am not surprised he would find support for it. I would argue Western culture has nearly fully embraced religious freedom which inevitably leads to some level of secularism. I think you(royal you) are lying to yourself if you believe the greatest thinkers over the last few millennia have not potentially been secular in their heart, but chose remain silent when faced with the power of the church in most Western nations.

Believing that judeo-christian faith is the only solution to our current ills as a culture stands to eventually undo the very religious freedom our country is supposedly founded on. To truly have religious freedom we have to have some form of government where laws that would spring from religious convictions can be challenged or we may as well all be back living under the church of England.

Science both social and physical combined with philosophy(possibly religiously guided) should be the tools we use to define morals and social constructs. Some good Judeo-christian values are certainly a strong part of current Western culture but that should not stop us from moving beyond its dated or broken constructs.

I think it is probably possible to formulate an argument that the maturity of judeo-christian faiths, that has given rise to the ability to be secular and move to and away from religion as the individual sees fit, is the very moderating force that has taken the sting away from the darker sides of religion that lead to holy wars in the past. Judeo-christian faiths are currently held in higher regard in Western nations because of their ability to peacefully coexists with secularism and other faiths not in spite of it. This gets at the very core of the separation of church and state, and that a nation can be based on a foundation not rooted in a single faith that is forced upon its people. To strongly believe otherwise is simply not very American.

Secularism, science, education, social freedom and capitalism are our greatest tools to help bring Muslims into the fold and moderate their religion into what judeo-christian faiths have become over millennia. Our only good choice is to continue to moderate their religion and remove the evil elements that are still practiced. The alternative is a bloody war to attempt to eradicate the faith. That probably isn't possible given its size.

Oh and Steve Bannon warning of an impending war is about as insightful as people predicting the next big crash. War is a cyclical and there will always be peaks and valleys of human conflict globally. There is no avoiding war until something fundamental changes about human nature.

RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1748 on: February 06, 2017, 06:01:49 PM »
Quote
I hope he doesn't try to overturn Roe V. Wade
This can only be done by the supreme court, and only in the context of cases brought in front of them.  Regardless of what happens, I don't think abortions will go away - they'll jst become black-market and dangerous.
I do hope that 'Plan B' and contraceptives are readily available to all, which will limit abortions

So I started reading Freakonomics last week. Here's a fun tidbit (in the sense that no abortion tidbit is ever fun):

They partly attribute the sharp drop-off in violent crime that happened in the 90s (when it had previously been rising) to Roe v. Wade. Fewer babies being born into high-risk families leading to fewer violent criminals.

I would think the bigger component to that is just family planning in general. In theory if we had near perfect contraception and safe sex for those who partake, there would be limited need for abortion since unwanted pregnancy would be an extremely rare issue.

At least some recent statistics seems to bare this out as the rate of abortions has been dropping.

I can almost sympathies with anti-abortion sentiment in certain cases even as an atheist. But the fight against contraception is the epitome  of religious oppression and insanity.

Sydneystache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1749 on: February 06, 2017, 06:14:07 PM »
Sydneystache - the rest of us don't want any part of a Trumpian war either. :( God, I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Please ignore acroy's sad view of international relations. The rest of us aren't thinking of our allies and friends as merely pawns on a giant world chessboard, because that's a pathetic way to view the rest of humanity. Most of us are decent people, I promise. Apologize loudly on our behalf to anyone who will listen. Most of us voted against the Trumpsterfire. We're trying to limit the damage as much as we can!

No need to apologise over your numpties. Glad acroy is not working for your State Department and berating his/her Australian equivalent as irrelevant. We are living in the age of #trumpdiplomacy after all.

What was amazing was our main newspaper printed all these apologies from Yanks on behalf of your prez the day after. John McCain's gesture was lovely - I have read a lot of pro-Trumpies decrying him but you know what, McCain knew what happened in Vietnam (Trump couldn't serve because of ---) and he knew our history. So McCain is a lightning rod for Aussies who still believe there are sane American politicians with foreign policy interest.

I'm sure the diplomatic lines are working overnight here but the has damage been done. Australia is thinking post-Trump. Bye bye pax americana.

As our former PM Rudd said, our alliance is ugly enough to overcome this snafu but what a big snafu. According to insiders, Turnbull's phone call was to gauge how unhinged Trump is...and clearly he totally is. That and he is Putin's Manchurian candidate.

The big problem for the US here is China is loving this chaos and they're the ones who are going to win the region over with soft power. It is hard to defend America with Trump in power.

Trump's attack on the fourth estate is resonating with China with its bigger propaganda piece. So yes, it's now president-sanctioned to shut the media with fake news. On the bright side, the UK House of Commons today don't want Trumpie speaking.

Anyway, best of luck y'all and we just wonder how the world will survive the next 4 years!