Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 229123 times)

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #100 on: November 10, 2016, 04:32:27 AM »
Gay people might lose their right to marry ...

Gay people have always had the right to marry, everywhere in the United States. That is unlikely to change. The former marriage restrictions were based on gender, not on sexual preference. To be sure, those gender-based restrictions were fundamentally unjust, but I see no reason to obscure the issue by using popular news media rhetoric about "gay marriage" and "gay people ... los[ing] their right to marry".

Gay people did not have the right to marry each other.  That did change, and could revert back to the way things were before, therefore losing their right to marry each other.

Basing marriage restrictions on gender impacts only one population . . . the population interested in marrying the same gender.  The commonly used short form for these marriages is 'gay marriage' since straight people (by virtue of being straight) are not interested in marrying the same gender.


The gender-based restrictions
  • did not affect all people who identified or identify as gay, and
  • did not affect only people who identified or identify as gay,
and therefore it makes little sense to paint this issue as being about the "right to marry" of "gay people". That language is simultaneously under-inclusive and over-inclusive.

The gender based restrictions:
- did effect all gay people who wanted to marry their gay partner.
- only effected the rights of people who are gay, since by definition straight people prefer to have sex with and marry those of the opposite sex.

This is entirely about the "right to marry each other" for "gay people".

Pooplips

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #101 on: November 10, 2016, 05:08:36 AM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #102 on: November 10, 2016, 05:55:53 AM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

The government isn't.  Loving someone isn't a precondition to get a marriage contract, and in fact has little/nothing to do with being licensed.  A marriage license carries with it specific legal and tax related ramifications.

Lyssa

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #103 on: November 10, 2016, 07:04:34 AM »
I think/hope he won't be that bad because he seems to be motivated by one thing only: to win, to be the first.

He won. He's president.

It's possible he's going to spend most of his term looking at pictures of himself. I don't belief he's going to persecute minorities because that would require a different kind of motivation. He won't be as bad for women as Ted Cruz would have been. He's the kind of misogynist who slaps his secretary's ass, not the kind of misogynist dedicating his life to closing down Planned Parenthood.

Obama care is most likely gone. That's bad. I don't understand how so many US Americans can consider public health insurance to be the road to socialism. Baffling...

Taxes: I dare not predict what happens here. Maybe nothing, maybe yet more taxcuts for the rich and more crumbling infrastructure as a result.

Foreign policy: I honestly belief Trump is going to be a lot less bad than people think. Everything he said points towards that he does not want the US involved in foreign wars that he beliefs cost the US a lot more than it has to gain (he might be on to something there). I've thought for years that the European lefties wish for US interventionism to end, right until they get what they want...

Regarding his temper and machoism: other heads of state who are of the same kind will respect him for it. That's what lefty liberals don't understand: Being nice and trying to reach a compromise is weakness in the eyes of Putin; Erdogan and the likes of them. Just see where all playing nice has gotten Europe with those two sweethearts. Turkey and Russia won't turn into real democracies any time soon (Turkey is wiping out any progress it had made since Atatürk at a breathtaking speed, controversial in this forum about a year ago (hi GuitarStv... :-)), pretty fucking obvious now). Therefore, things need to be dealt with as they are and not glossed over by 'building bridges', 'keeping doors open' etc. IMHO turkey should be kicked out of NATO. Oman and the Kurds in Northern Irak can provide airbases etc. Yes, there are Islamists in Oman too, but the head of state isn't one of them. Yes, a lot of Kurdish militia are socialists, but still the most trustworthy party in this region of the world.
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 07:27:58 AM by Lyssa »

dragoncar

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #104 on: November 10, 2016, 07:07:07 AM »
Gay people might lose their right to marry ...

Gay people have always had the right to marry, everywhere in the United States. That is unlikely to change. The former marriage restrictions were based on gender, not on sexual preference. To be sure, those gender-based restrictions were fundamentally unjust, but I see no reason to obscure the issue by using popular news media rhetoric about "gay marriage" and "gay people ... los[ing] their right to marry".

Gay people did not have the right to marry each other.

Sure they did.  It just had to be a gay man marrying a gay woman.  Just like God intended.

rubybeth

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #105 on: November 10, 2016, 08:01:16 AM »
The ACA will go away, as will the recent changes to Fair Labor Standards Act (minimum salary of $47,476 for exempt employees), and I also predict Public Student Loan Forgiveness (or any other loan forgiveness programs) will also go away.
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Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #106 on: November 10, 2016, 08:16:47 AM »
I think/hope he won't be that bad because he seems to be motivated by one thing only: to win, to be the first.



That's not the only thing he is/was motivated by.

He's motivated to win.

Correlative to this, he is a zero-sum guy: if he is a winner, it means anyone who isn't with him is a loser.

He is also motivated by vindictiveness. We have seen ample evidence of that. If he brings this to the presidency, which I have no reason to think he won't, it will be pretty bad.

He is also motivated by an extreme need to be adored. Which means that he will continue to do things that will make his most ardent supporters stand up and cheer. Not everything, certainly. I mean, I don't at all think he will actually implement policies that will help the working-class white voters who voted for him get better jobs, for example. But, while he's not doing a damn thing about that, he will be loudly crowing about basically dismantling the EPA, removing any climate change policies that were in place, and generally appealing to the "rolling coal" contingent.  Not to mention high-profile acts designed to get people who hate and fear Muslims to go into the back yard and shoot off their guns in exhilaration.

So yeah, he's gonna be motivated by more than just being the first.
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Cathy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #107 on: November 10, 2016, 08:38:48 AM »
GuitarStv, I think your response to me illustrates the validity of my objection.


The gender based restrictions:
- did effect all gay people who wanted to marry their gay partner.

This is not accurate.

For various reasons, there were gay people who were able to marry their partner of the same sex who under the former system, generally where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.


- only effected the rights of people who are gay

This is not accurate.

The gender-based restrictions also affected, among others:
  • Heterosexual people who wanted to marry of somebody of a different sex, where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.
  • Bisexual people who wanted to marry somebody of the same sex.
  • Bisexual people who wanted to marry somebody of another sex, where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.
  • Asexual people who wanted to marry somebody of the same sex.
  • Asexual people who wanted to marry somebody of another sex, where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.
  • People who identify with a different label than any of the above, or prefer not to identify with any sexual preference label, and who wanted to marry somebody of the same sex.
  • People who identify with a different label than any of the above, or prefer not to identify with any sexual preference label, and who wanted to marry somebody of another sex, where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.


... since by definition straight people prefer to have sex with and marry those of the opposite sex.

Marriage doesn't necessarily have anything to do with sex, despite what the popular news media tells you. There are loving romantic relationships out there that do not involve sex at all, including some marriages. The parties to those relationships might identify as any of a number of things -- not necessarily asexual, actually. For example, there are plenty of cases where a gay man falls in love with a straight woman, and they might decide to get married. This was allowed in some cases under the former system even though it was a sincere, real relationship involving a gay person. I mention this because this is yet another type of experience that the problematic terms erase.


This is entirely about the "right to marry each other" for "gay people".

No, it's not. That's what the popular news media says, but as you now start to see, those popular news media stories have long-erased the experiences and stories of all sorts of different people, and you continue to propagate that erasure when you use terms and phrases like "gay marriage", the "right to marriage of gay people", and even "same-sex marriage".
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 09:45:20 AM by Cathy »
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begood

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #108 on: November 10, 2016, 08:41:17 AM »
I can't guess what the impacts of his presidency will be.  He's such a bullshitter that it's impossible to know what he really believes/understands/plans, or how these will change from day to day.

But his election is an impact on integrity, on honesty, education, respect, compassion, tolerance and even the most basic courtesy.  Perhaps the consequences for global economics and security won't be as dire as many fear, but the impact on values is appalling.

Well said, Julard.

Jack

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #109 on: November 10, 2016, 09:02:53 AM »
My posts on the forum are written in my normal voice.

Cathy, you should make this guy your avatar picture:


bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #110 on: November 10, 2016, 09:50:21 AM »
GuitarStv, I think your response to me illustrates the validity of my objection.


The gender based restrictions:
- did effect all gay people who wanted to marry their gay partner.

This is not accurate.

For various reasons, there were gay people who were able to marry their partner of the same sex who under the former system, generally where the state's determination of one person's sex was not accurate.

Wow..just wow.

iris lily

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #111 on: November 10, 2016, 10:01:11 AM »
The Dow. Yowza.

Are we allowed to talk about this positive here, or is this website only a safe space for Never Trumpers?

Anyway, I expected a Trump win to result in an immediate, large, and extended drop in the Dow. My brainwashing was deep that "the Market Does Not Like Uncertainty" and there is nothing more uncertain than the rule of The Orange One.

Yet, the OBVIOUS outcome took place: confidence in a mega businessman, faith in America great Again results in Wall Street happiness.

I predicted HRC wouod win. i predicted the Dow woild drop muchly when Trump won. N one should,sit by me at the blackjack table.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #112 on: November 10, 2016, 10:07:51 AM »
The Dow. Yowza.

Are we allowed to talk about this positive here, or is this website only a safe space for Never Trumpers?

Anyway, I expected a Trump win to result in an immediate, large, and extended drop in the Dow. My brainwashing was deep that "the Market Does Not Like Uncertainty" and there is nothing more uncertain than the rule of The Orange One.

Yet, the OBVIOUS outcome took place: confidence in a mega businessman, faith in America great Again results in Wall Street happiness.

I predicted HRC wouod win. i predicted the Dow woild drop muchly when Trump won. N one should,sit by me at the blackjack table.

There was definitely uncertainty in the market in the 2 weeks leading up to the election. In retrospect, that may have been from Trump's "it's rigged" comments and the possibility of an extended decision, a la 2000.

It's too early to conclude that the increase is from "confidence in a mega businessman," though I guess any Republican in office almost ensures lower taxes and regulations. The increase might just be contained worry being released.

Cathy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #113 on: November 10, 2016, 10:18:56 AM »
Wow..just wow.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by this, but if you look at the entire context of my post, it's clear what my point is: there are a wide range of experiences that are hidden by the popular news media terminology.

I support equality and inclusion, and therefore I prefer language that does not exclude some people's experiences. This is the same reason why many of my posts acknowledge in passing that a romantic relationship can involve more than two persons; I want to be as inclusive and as nonjudgmental as possible. I would argue that this is a salutary goal.
This post contains only general information on the issues raised by this topic. This post does not provide help tailored to your specific situation. There are many facts that could be relevant to your specific situation and I am not in possession of those facts. If you need help tailored to your specific situation, you should retain an appropriate professional and not rely on this post.

iris lily

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #114 on: November 10, 2016, 10:19:29 AM »
The Dow. Yowza.

Are we allowed to talk about this positive here, or is this website only a safe space for Never Trumpers?

Anyway, I expected a Trump win to result in an immediate, large, and extended drop in the Dow. My brainwashing was deep that "the Market Does Not Like Uncertainty" and there is nothing more uncertain than the rule of The Orange One.

Yet, the OBVIOUS outcome took place: confidence in a mega businessman, faith in America great Again results in Wall Street happiness.

I predicted HRC wouod win. i predicted the Dow woild drop muchly when Trump won. N one should,sit by me at the blackjack table.

There was definitely uncertainty in the market in the 2 weeks leading up to the election. In retrospect, that may have been from Trump's "it's rigged" comments and the possibility of an extended decision, a la 2000.

It's too early to conclude that the increase is from "confidence in a mega businessman," though I guess any Republican in office almost ensures lower taxes and regulations. The increase might just be contained worry being released.

Oh, no way would I predict that this rise will,contnue, I am just surprised by it.

boarder42

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #115 on: November 10, 2016, 10:21:51 AM »
lots of money was sitting on the sidelines waiting for the election to happen.  and it all got invested.
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Jack

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #116 on: November 10, 2016, 10:31:13 AM »
Wow..just wow.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by this, but if you look at the entire context of my post, it's clear what my point is: there are a wide range of experiences that are hidden by the popular news media terminology.

I support equality and inclusion, and therefore I prefer language that does not exclude some people's experiences. This is the same reason why many of my posts acknowledge in passing that a romantic relationship can involve more than two persons; I want to be as inclusive and as nonjudgmental as possible. I would argue that this is a salutary goal.

I realize that you're an AI or autistic or something and that it might be difficult, but if you want people to stop getting bent out of shape at your technically-correct posts you should more carefully consider the connotation, tone and implication of your words, not just the denotation.

[MOD NOTE:  Tone trolling and insulting someone as mentally deficient are not acceptable here.]


NOTE TO MOD: Who do you think you are to imply that autistic people are "mentally deficient?!" My wife is on the autism spectrum, you jerk! As with many other so-called "disorders" (like ADD and introversion), [high-functioning] autism just means having a brain that works differently, and that is not the same as having one that doesn't work!


[MOD NOTE:  Oh!  I see!  You weren't using "autistic" as an insult?  Unfortunately, a lot of people missed that, which is how the post got flagged.  I would recommend not going route in the future.]


I do get the impression that Cathy is something other than neurotypical. I do not even slightly think she's "deficient" (on the contrary, I think she's some kind of genius or savant). I honestly don't know if she realizes the effect of the connotation of her posts or not, which is why I wrote the post above. I was going for "understanding while disarming with humor," not "trolling." If I missed the mark, I apologize... but I don't think I did. I think the mod and whoever complained to him are way overly-sensitive.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 09:15:54 AM by FrugalToque »

hoping2retire35

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #117 on: November 10, 2016, 10:47:40 AM »
uncalled-for.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #118 on: November 10, 2016, 11:37:06 AM »
just look at who Trump wants to run the EPA. He's not the same as Clinton.

No different than Clinton.  They are same.  If you don't realize that then you need some work.  Trump is no different than Clinton.  No wall.  No magical thing to replace ACA.  Just sit and wait there is no difference.  It isn't any different than 'Hope and Change' that so many fools fell for.

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #119 on: November 10, 2016, 01:38:33 PM »
I can't guess what the impacts of his presidency will be.  He's such a bullshitter that it's impossible to know what he really believes/understands/plans, or how these will change from day to day.

But his election is an impact on integrity, on honesty, education, respect, compassion, tolerance and even the most basic courtesy.  Perhaps the consequences for global economics and security won't be as dire as many fear, but the impact on values is appalling.

Well said, Julard.

Day 1 in Trump's America

This is breaking my heart right now.

On the one hand, thank you for posting this. On the other hand ... fuck.
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RangerOne

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #120 on: November 10, 2016, 02:58:50 PM »
I have pretty little tolerance for climate change deniers simply because even if models are wrong the potential cost of doing nothing is high and irreversible.

But this isn't uniquely bad about Trump. The Repub party has taken up the mantel of denial on this issue and we are pretty much guaranteed a Repub administration every 8 years.

This is so political that our only real hope at this point is for alternative energy to become so economically viable that it simply puts coal and gas out of business. As long as we have lobbyist and corporate money in our politics we will continue to have climate change deniers selling our futures for a paycheck.

That and we still have to do something about all the jobs that will be lost in the old energy sector.

oldtoyota

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #121 on: November 10, 2016, 08:51:43 PM »
I think/hope he won't be that bad because he seems to be motivated by one thing only: to win, to be the first.

He won. He's president.

It's possible he's going to spend most of his term looking at pictures of himself. I don't belief he's going to persecute minorities because that would require a different kind of motivation. He won't be as bad for women as Ted Cruz would have been. He's the kind of misogynist who slaps his secretary's ass, not the kind of misogynist dedicating his life to closing down Planned Parenthood.


Right. Pence will be in charge of policy--and not DT. Pence is far scarier.


cliffhanger

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #122 on: November 10, 2016, 09:09:47 PM »
I can't guess what the impacts of his presidency will be.  He's such a bullshitter that it's impossible to know what he really believes/understands/plans, or how these will change from day to day.

But his election is an impact on integrity, on honesty, education, respect, compassion, tolerance and even the most basic courtesy.  Perhaps the consequences for global economics and security won't be as dire as many fear, but the impact on values is appalling.

Well said, Julard.

Day 1 in Trump's America

This is breaking my heart right now.

On the one hand, thank you for posting this. On the other hand ... fuck.

Ok, so I'll be that guy: Not all of those people are being truthful

There are real victims of racism and real victims that are being attacked by idiotic Trump supporters. These other fake victims are assholes who try to ride this media wave on the backs of actual victims. Hopefully they will be prosecuted to the extent of the law. It's unfortunate that I now have to look through these posts and wonder which ones are real.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #123 on: November 10, 2016, 10:23:30 PM »
No different than Clinton.  They are same.  If you don't realize that then you need some work.  Trump is no different than Clinton.  No wall.  No magical thing to replace ACA.  Just sit and wait there is no difference.  It isn't any different than 'Hope and Change' that so many fools fell for.

Really? I mean, really?

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #124 on: November 10, 2016, 11:35:38 PM »
Ok, so I'll be that guy: Not all of those people are being truthful

There are real victims of racism and real victims that are being attacked by idiotic Trump supporters. These other fake victims are assholes who try to ride this media wave on the backs of actual victims. Hopefully they will be prosecuted to the extent of the law. It's unfortunate that I now have to look through these posts and wonder which ones are real.

This makes me sick. People should not undermine true victim experiences by making up stories. What kind of person would do this? And who the hell are they trying to win points with?
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Lyssa

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #125 on: November 11, 2016, 03:10:37 AM »
Ok, so I'll be that guy: Not all of those people are being truthful

There are real victims of racism and real victims that are being attacked by idiotic Trump supporters. These other fake victims are assholes who try to ride this media wave on the backs of actual victims. Hopefully they will be prosecuted to the extent of the law. It's unfortunate that I now have to look through these posts and wonder which ones are real.

This makes me sick. People should not undermine true victim experiences by making up stories. What kind of person would do this? And who the hell are they trying to win points with?

It happens when people are convinced that they are fighting ultimate evil. Then anything goes. We've seen this in Germany when the 'Alternative for Germany', our new right-wing party reached double digits. Young lefties made up stories about knife attacks, a female youth politician of 'The Left' (our left wing party) adjusted the description of the men who gang raped her to her political narrative. She felt that the accurate description would have 'fueled racism' and prejudice against refugees.

Of course those stories only fed the right-wingers' own feedback loop and now each and every racist attack is subject to doubt...

An honest inquiry in what made this madness possible would be a lot more useful. But it would also necessitate a painfully honest look into the mirror of both political and media elites.

Same for Brexit.

Same for the 'Alternative' (only moderately successful so far).

Soon same for new French president Le Pen?

Voters are going to continue to send their 'Fuck you too' cards to the establishment until the latter starts to actually listen.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 03:17:27 AM by Lyssa »

macoconut

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #126 on: November 11, 2016, 08:03:09 AM »
Does anyone have an accurate list of Trump's "day one" promises? I can't seem to find a consolidated list from a reputable source (and I'm supposed to be working...not Googling on my phone!).

NoStacheOhio

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #127 on: November 11, 2016, 08:03:27 AM »
I can't guess what the impacts of his presidency will be.  He's such a bullshitter that it's impossible to know what he really believes/understands/plans, or how these will change from day to day.

But his election is an impact on integrity, on honesty, education, respect, compassion, tolerance and even the most basic courtesy.  Perhaps the consequences for global economics and security won't be as dire as many fear, but the impact on values is appalling.

Well said, Julard.

Day 1 in Trump's America

This is breaking my heart right now.

On the one hand, thank you for posting this. On the other hand ... fuck.

Ok, so I'll be that guy: Not all of those people are being truthful

There are real victims of racism and real victims that are being attacked by idiotic Trump supporters. These other fake victims are assholes who try to ride this media wave on the backs of actual victims. Hopefully they will be prosecuted to the extent of the law. It's unfortunate that I now have to look through these posts and wonder which ones are real.

I fully understand that there's going to be some made-up bullshit. But the documented crimes against minorities are what I'm really reacting to there. Assuming 70% of what's there is fictitious, that's still a lot of horrible in one day.
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boarder42

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #128 on: November 11, 2016, 08:18:38 AM »
Does anyone have an accurate list of Trump's "day one" promises? I can't seem to find a consolidated list from a reputable source (and I'm supposed to be working...not Googling on my phone!).

first 100 days

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/nov/10/donald-trumps-campaign-promises-first-100-days/
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macoconut

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #129 on: November 11, 2016, 08:54:47 AM »
Does anyone have an accurate list of Trump's "day one" promises? I can't seem to find a consolidated list from a reputable source (and I'm supposed to be working...not Googling on my phone!).

first 100 days

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/nov/10/donald-trumps-campaign-promises-first-100-days/

Thanks, boarder. I saw that one, but was looking for his "day one" statements from his speeches, debates, and rallies.

Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #130 on: November 11, 2016, 09:41:39 AM »
TLDR;  We will lose a generation of young scientists and their discoveries.

Hello.  I've lurked MMM and the forums for about three years, but never was impelled to post before now.  One reason why my family never went hardcore on the FIRE is because we were never interested in retiring: my husband loves what he does and will not retire until forced to, and I  am a SAHM, looking forward to returning to work when our youngest goes to kindergarten. So what pulled me out of the woodwork?

Well, Trump's stance on science leads us to believe that heavy cuts to scientific research funding are imminent.  My husband, a biologist, is very concerned that the science budget will be cut and looted. Atmospheric and earth sciences are toast.  Luckily for us, since Congress is filled with old people who fear getting sick, biomedical research will survive in some form.  All the same, we can expect many scientists to leave the profession as the already-contracted percentage of grants funded shrinks, and basic research (science that seeks to unravel root causes and find novel systems, and that sometimes leads to the great breakthroughs that causes all research to leap forward) will fall off the priority list.

My husband is very good at his profession. We feel that though it's a risky and not a very remunerative life, the knowledge he gathers is a true, if small, contribution to the good of humanity.   But it seems likely that many like him in mid-career will have to abandon basic research and turn to the commercial sector, turning their talents to prioritize corporate profits.  And what will happen to the ten young people working in his lab, four of them also with young families?  They will look for jobs and some will not find them, and perhaps never return to science.

For myself, I was hoping to return to science after doing my time as an IT consultant and at home. But by the time American science recovers (if ever), I may be too old.  My job for now is to help our family prepare for hard times, hence a closer reading of the MMM site.


boarder42

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #131 on: November 11, 2016, 01:19:22 PM »
TLDR;  We will lose a generation of young scientists and their discoveries.

Hello.  I've lurked MMM and the forums for about three years, but never was impelled to post before now.  One reason why my family never went hardcore on the FIRE is because we were never interested in retiring: my husband loves what he does and will not retire until forced to, and I  am a SAHM, looking forward to returning to work when our youngest goes to kindergarten. So what pulled me out of the woodwork?

Well, Trump's stance on science leads us to believe that heavy cuts to scientific research funding are imminent.  My husband, a biologist, is very concerned that the science budget will be cut and looted. Atmospheric and earth sciences are toast.  Luckily for us, since Congress is filled with old people who fear getting sick, biomedical research will survive in some form.  All the same, we can expect many scientists to leave the profession as the already-contracted percentage of grants funded shrinks, and basic research (science that seeks to unravel root causes and find novel systems, and that sometimes leads to the great breakthroughs that causes all research to leap forward) will fall off the priority list.

My husband is very good at his profession. We feel that though it's a risky and not a very remunerative life, the knowledge he gathers is a true, if small, contribution to the good of humanity.   But it seems likely that many like him in mid-career will have to abandon basic research and turn to the commercial sector, turning their talents to prioritize corporate profits.  And what will happen to the ten young people working in his lab, four of them also with young families?  They will look for jobs and some will not find them, and perhaps never return to science.

For myself, I was hoping to return to science after doing my time as an IT consultant and at home. But by the time American science recovers (if ever), I may be too old.  My job for now is to help our family prepare for hard times, hence a closer reading of the MMM site.

outside of the scope of this thread, but wanting to retire and decreasing your spending so you have life options are one and the same. If you were on a path to FIRE your husband could do this work he loves to do for a lot less money once FIREd and make society a better place.  once you are not relying on your job for your income the sky is the limit to what you can do. so cut costs become more secure do what you want to do regardless of public funding for it.
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Poundwise

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #132 on: November 11, 2016, 02:10:04 PM »
outside of the scope of this thread, but wanting to retire and decreasing your spending so you have life options are one and the same. If you were on a path to FIRE your husband could do this work he loves to do for a lot less money once FIREd and make society a better place.  once you are not relying on your job for your income the sky is the limit to what you can do. so cut costs become more secure do what you want to do regardless of public funding for it.

I don't want to hijack the thread, but even if my husband worked for free, he would still need money to pay his lab members, buy equipment, pay his hosting institution which takes something like a 10% overhead for administration, rent, etc., and also purchase consumables such as sterile plates, cell media, chemicals, etc.    He's a very thrifty man who even in fat times  used to buy used equipment on ebay until the institution made this difficult, haggles with vendors, trades and shares with other PIs, makes his own equipment in machine shop when possible, and basically stretches the taxpayer dollar as far as possible. But I don't see how he could continue his research without grants.  Hopefully he'll make the new cuts, but that means somebody else will fall off the edge. Less money for science = less science done.

mtnrider

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #133 on: November 11, 2016, 03:03:09 PM »
Does anyone have an accurate list of Trump's "day one" promises? I can't seem to find a consolidated list from a reputable source (and I'm supposed to be working...not Googling on my phone!).

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501476905/what-donald-trump-plans-to-do-on-his-first-day-in-the-white-house

edit: also this list

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50529/donald-trumps-first-day-in-office/

« Last Edit: November 11, 2016, 03:06:41 PM by mtnrider »

Gin1984

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #134 on: November 11, 2016, 03:22:35 PM »
TLDR;  We will lose a generation of young scientists and their discoveries.

Hello.  I've lurked MMM and the forums for about three years, but never was impelled to post before now.  One reason why my family never went hardcore on the FIRE is because we were never interested in retiring: my husband loves what he does and will not retire until forced to, and I  am a SAHM, looking forward to returning to work when our youngest goes to kindergarten. So what pulled me out of the woodwork?

Well, Trump's stance on science leads us to believe that heavy cuts to scientific research funding are imminent.  My husband, a biologist, is very concerned that the science budget will be cut and looted. Atmospheric and earth sciences are toast.  Luckily for us, since Congress is filled with old people who fear getting sick, biomedical research will survive in some form.  All the same, we can expect many scientists to leave the profession as the already-contracted percentage of grants funded shrinks, and basic research (science that seeks to unravel root causes and find novel systems, and that sometimes leads to the great breakthroughs that causes all research to leap forward) will fall off the priority list.

My husband is very good at his profession. We feel that though it's a risky and not a very remunerative life, the knowledge he gathers is a true, if small, contribution to the good of humanity.   But it seems likely that many like him in mid-career will have to abandon basic research and turn to the commercial sector, turning their talents to prioritize corporate profits.  And what will happen to the ten young people working in his lab, four of them also with young families?  They will look for jobs and some will not find them, and perhaps never return to science.

For myself, I was hoping to return to science after doing my time as an IT consultant and at home. But by the time American science recovers (if ever), I may be too old.  My job for now is to help our family prepare for hard times, hence a closer reading of the MMM site.

outside of the scope of this thread, but wanting to retire and decreasing your spending so you have life options are one and the same. If you were on a path to FIRE your husband could do this work he loves to do for a lot less money once FIREd and make society a better place.  once you are not relying on your job for your income the sky is the limit to what you can do. so cut costs become more secure do what you want to do regardless of public funding for it.
And this an example of ignorance. No, researchers at R1 instructions can't do research without grants.  And if they did not get public funding the other option is working for a company.  Chinese and Indian students are paid by their government to come here, but we are so good.  Drying the grants will end that.  I know labs shut down because of lack of funding, good research not being done because you can't one man shop.  Science needs funding to work. 

Northwestie

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #135 on: November 11, 2016, 04:16:55 PM »

No different than Clinton.  They are same.  If you don't realize that then you need some work.  Trump is no different than Clinton.  No wall.  No magical thing to replace ACA.  Just sit and wait there is no difference.  It isn't any different than 'Hope and Change' that so many fools fell for.

Pants-on-fire rating for that one.

Trump is looking to put a climate-denier in charge of EPA; Sarah Palin or an oil executive in charge of Department of Interior, and Carson - a creationist - as head of Department of Education -- just for starters.   It's like emptying a barrel of monkeys into leadership of the federal government.  Let's just see what the Rust Belt gains from all this - my guess is they will be in worse shape than they are now.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #136 on: November 11, 2016, 06:02:01 PM »

No different than Clinton.  They are same.  If you don't realize that then you need some work.  Trump is no different than Clinton.  No wall.  No magical thing to replace ACA.  Just sit and wait there is no difference.  It isn't any different than 'Hope and Change' that so many fools fell for.

Pants-on-fire rating for that one.

Trump is looking to put a climate-denier in charge of EPA; Sarah Palin or an oil executive in charge of Department of Interior, and Carson - a creationist - as head of Department of Education -- just for starters.   It's like emptying a barrel of monkeys into leadership of the federal government.  Let's just see what the Rust Belt gains from all this - my guess is they will be in worse shape than they are now.

On the plus side, he looks like he really intends to improve  the ACA, despite all the worry. So there's that.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 04:16:01 AM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #137 on: November 12, 2016, 09:15:54 AM »
Does anyone have an accurate list of Trump's "day one" promises? I can't seem to find a consolidated list from a reputable source (and I'm supposed to be working...not Googling on my phone!).

http://www.npr.org/2016/11/09/501476905/what-donald-trump-plans-to-do-on-his-first-day-in-the-white-house

edit: also this list

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a50529/donald-trumps-first-day-in-office/

Perfect! Thanks, mtnrider!

Trudie

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #138 on: November 12, 2016, 01:04:10 PM »
When Trump got the nomination I was like "Jesus, he might actually pull this off."  And so he has.  I would also remind various Chicken Littles that he will say ANYTHING if it gets him what he wants.  Yesterday, he wanted to throw Hillary Clinton in jail.  Today, he spoke respectfully of "Madam Secretary" and praised her tenacity.  And remember all the people whom, it was claimed, would never vote for him?  Well, guess what?  LGBTs voted for him.  Women voted for him.  Hispanics voted for him.  Hell, even Muslims voted for him.  Maybe not the majority, but much more than was predicted. 

Remember the kid in junior high who always tried to act tough and macho to fit in?  That's Trump in a nutshell.  He's always been mostly talk.  I think it may be sinking in that for perhaps the first time in his life he's going to be held accountable for what he's said.  And it's scaring the SHIT out of him.

He's out of his depth.  He'll be a puppet and the Republican Congress and Senate will run the show which -- despite the fact that I don't relish many of the policy decisions they'll likely make -- might be a good thing if they put checks on him so he doesn't aggress against other nations and get us blown to smithereens by weapons of mass destruction.  I think that Washington is so intractable that most changes won't happen overnight and may face severe headwinds from the administrative machinery.  I think he will spend a good deal of time in debate and disagreement with his own party because many of his policies and ideas are not fully-formed and in some cases (entitlements) are out of step with his own party.  In sum, odds are high that he'll be ineffective.  It's quite possible that the Republican party will push him further to the margins, and some are speculating that he'll either get frustrated and resign or that he'll be impeached.   I think it's also possible that the most traditional wings of the party (Paul Ryan) will also be fighting the Tea Party pretty heavily.  Might make for some interesting alliances between Democrats and moderate Republicans to get shit done.

In the end... we don't really know.  I'm starting to stockpile cash and am preparing to work until I am 65 (15 more years than I'd planned) since it's likely my ability to buy insurance just went down the crapper.  Who DOESN'T have pre-existing conditions?  Shit, my husband has kidney stone disease and a form of rheumatoid arthritis -- the latter of which has a strong genetic basis.  Sounds like we'll be SOL.  Trump has said he doesn't want to remove the exclusion.  What does that mean, practically (he probably doesn't even know)?  If policies keep pricing people out they're pretty worthless.

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #139 on: November 14, 2016, 12:31:31 PM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

The government isn't.  Loving someone isn't a precondition to get a marriage contract, and in fact has little/nothing to do with being licensed.  A marriage license carries with it specific legal and tax related ramifications.

Agreed. We should remove those too. I guess the only reason for a marriage is for tax related ramifications.

sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #140 on: November 14, 2016, 12:37:55 PM »
Agreed. We should remove those too. I guess the only reason for a marriage is for tax related ramifications.

Marriage confers a long list of rights outside of preferential tax treatment, such a inheritance of property without a will and visitation privileges and decision-making authority in medical emergencies. 

GuitarStv

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #141 on: November 14, 2016, 12:56:27 PM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

The government isn't.  Loving someone isn't a precondition to get a marriage contract, and in fact has little/nothing to do with being licensed.  A marriage license carries with it specific legal and tax related ramifications.

Agreed. We should remove those too. I guess the only reason for a marriage is for tax related ramifications.

There are important legal considerations associated with marriage:
- If your partner suddenly becomes ill you're automatically considered next of kin and able to make medical decisions for example.
- If your spouse dies, you are legally able to decide if you want to donate parts of his/her body for medical/scientific reasons.
- You are able to decide what happens with any copyrights your spouse held at death.
- Marriage totally changes inheritance.

SouthLand

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #142 on: November 14, 2016, 08:38:48 PM »
-A lot of busybody work in healthcare that will ultimately see us return to a similar situation pre-ACA. Healthcare will become a personal responsibility again.

-Closing of the borders. Increased restrictions on immigration. The wall will go up. Some degree of bullying towards Mexico will happen but how much and how far I don't know. Possible increased government oversight of Muslim Americans or Americans of Middle Eastern descent, though things may remain at current levels.

-Possible action taken against traditional targets: rights associated with women, homosexuals, transgenders, and minorities may be limited to some degree, though I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP and Trump try to just ignore these for four years.

-The exit of the US from many international agreements and organizations, perhaps not wholly but to some degree. The US will be less accountable to the rest of the world and abide less to edicts set by such organizations.

-Continued and increased US intervention abroad.

-Possible US nuclear strike against a small threat target (most likely not another nuclear power; non-nuclear, Middle Eastern, "hot spot" most likely).

-Rolling back of the majority of US environmental protection policies. Expect to see advanced climate change within our life time, certainly beyond the point of stopping or reversing.

-A lot of posturing and pedantry from all sides, most of which will have nothing to do with the actual results of American actions.

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #143 on: November 15, 2016, 04:30:01 AM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

The government isn't.  Loving someone isn't a precondition to get a marriage contract, and in fact has little/nothing to do with being licensed.  A marriage license carries with it specific legal and tax related ramifications.

Agreed. We should remove those too. I guess the only reason for a marriage is for tax related ramifications.

There are important legal considerations associated with marriage:
- If your partner suddenly becomes ill you're automatically considered next of kin and able to make medical decisions for example.
- If your spouse dies, you are legally able to decide if you want to donate parts of his/her body for medical/scientific reasons.
- You are able to decide what happens with any copyrights your spouse held at death.
- Marriage totally changes inheritance.

This - which is why any two people should be allowed to sign a contract allowing these changes to take place. It'd be easier to keep marriage and just let whoever the fuck wants to attach themselves to another person in this way do so.

What really needs to be changed is divorce. There's no reason that two people who wished to form a single taxable unit and give each other inheritance rights and medical POA should be penalized or forced to equally divide private property, and in some cases future income, when they decide this arrangement is no longer beneficial.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 04:42:52 AM by Metric Mouse »
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #144 on: November 15, 2016, 04:36:49 AM »
Trump will have a Republican Senate for at least two years and a Republican House for probably indefinitely (unless gerrymandering laws are changed), they wont C-block him like they did Obama. He'll have conservative federal judges appointed with no problem. There will be 1-3 Supreme Court Judges up for grabs.

Look for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Expect medical insurance profits to rise.

Expect your middle class taxes to increase and if you're more wealthy, expect your taxes to decrease. Trickle down economics theory will return.

I think relations with other countries will be poor.

I think the ignorant and loud will rule.

They always do.

Pooplips

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #145 on: November 15, 2016, 05:31:34 AM »
I say we get rid of marriage licenses all together. Problem solved. I see no reason for the government to be involved in an individuals decision on who they love.

The government isn't.  Loving someone isn't a precondition to get a marriage contract, and in fact has little/nothing to do with being licensed.  A marriage license carries with it specific legal and tax related ramifications.

Agreed. We should remove those too. I guess the only reason for a marriage is for tax related ramifications.

There are important legal considerations associated with marriage:
- If your partner suddenly becomes ill you're automatically considered next of kin and able to make medical decisions for example.
- If your spouse dies, you are legally able to decide if you want to donate parts of his/her body for medical/scientific reasons.
- You are able to decide what happens with any copyrights your spouse held at death.
- Marriage totally changes inheritance.

This - which is why any two people should be allowed to sign a contract allowing these changes to take place. It'd be easier to keep marriage and just let whoever the fuck wants to attach themselves to another person in this way do so.

What really needs to be changed is divorce. There's no reason that two people who wished to form a single taxable unit and give each other inheritance rights and medical POA should be penalized or forced to equally divide private property, and in some cases future income, when they decide this arrangement is no longer beneficial.

Wouldnt a simple Will be able to take care of all of these things? How do single people handle the above items?

I stand by my statement: The only reason for marriage - in the eyes of the government - is for tax purposes.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 05:38:09 AM by Pooplips »

Metric Mouse

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #146 on: November 15, 2016, 05:44:33 AM »
Of course one could probably bypass marriage (with perhaps the exception of the tax penalty) with a slew of carefully worded legal documents to effect the same legal rights of each partner. But there's a reason no one does this- we already have a procedure in place for people who want to form this type of partnership.  Wouldn't it be so much easier on everyone to keep the single document we have now?  Would it help if we just changed the name from 'marriage certificate' to 'civil union' or 'partnership will' or something? Seems a lot less work for everybody, with the same effect.
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sol

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #147 on: November 15, 2016, 07:38:42 AM »
I stand by my statement: The only reason for marriage - in the eyes of the government - is for tax purposes.

Do you consider spousal social security benefits to be a tax purpose? How about private pension benefits?

Drifterrider

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #148 on: November 15, 2016, 07:51:02 AM »
Gay people might lose their right to marry ...

Gay people have always had the right to marry, everywhere in the United States. That is unlikely to change. The former marriage restrictions were based on gender, not on sexual preference. To be sure, those gender-based restrictions were fundamentally unjust, but I see no reason to obscure the issue by using popular news media rhetoric about "gay marriage" and "gay people ... los[ing] their right to marry".

Gay people did not have the right to marry each other.

Sure they did.  It just had to be a gay man marrying a gay woman.  Just like God intended.

If you and God talk frequently, I'd suggest you ask him to explain mote and beam to you.  Then get back with us.

Pooplips

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #149 on: November 15, 2016, 08:59:18 AM »
I stand by my statement: The only reason for marriage - in the eyes of the government - is for tax purposes.

Do you consider spousal social security benefits to be a tax purpose? How about private pension benefits?

Yes for SS. Private pensions can already have suvivor benefits built into them.