Author Topic: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?  (Read 242461 times)

acorn

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What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« on: November 09, 2016, 01:49:19 AM »
It's over, the people have voted. It is what it is, we can't change it. Instead of what-ifs, debating why people voted the way they did, pointing fingers, despair and depression, let's have a civil discussion about what to expect in the next four years.

What will be the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency with Republican control of the House and Senate? The most obvious one is that Trump will get to nominate at least one conservative Supreme Court justice, who will be confirmed by the Republican Senate. The environment and climate change are also goners.

On other issues, it's not as clear to me. For example, Trump has called for protectionist trade policies, but the Republican party has generally been pro-free trade (correct me if I'm wrong). I guess my question is, who/what will determine US policies over the next four years? The Republican party has split itself into fractions, and has been at odds with Trump more often than not. Are we likely to see more party infighting in the years ahead, or will they regroup with their president and congress majorities to push forward their agenda? Who is going to decide their agenda? Will Trump adopt the Republican party platform, or will Republican party adopt his ideas (deportations, congressional term limits, etc)?

What is going to serve as a check and balance to Trump? Will the Republican party do that with their majorities? Will there be any moderate Republicans left? Trump does not seem to understand much about the nuances of policies, and has shown very little interest in learning about the intricacies of governing. In the best case scenario, he might change, if not, he's going to be heavily reliant on his "sources", which appear to be himself, the internet, and TV. Who are going to be his advisors? Who is going to be in his cabinet? Who is really going to run the show? Mike Pence/Paul Ryan/Mitch McConnell/Steve Bannon?

I know that no one has any answers, but I want to be prepared for what's coming.

TL;DR I'm freaking out worried. Tell me how bad it's going to be.

wienerdog

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 02:01:30 AM »
No different than Clinton.  They are same.  If you don't realize that then you need some work.  Trump is no different than Clinton.  No wall.  No magical thing to replace ACA.  Just sit and wait there is no difference.  It isn't any different than 'Hope and Change' that so many fools fell for.

Johnez

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 02:17:05 AM »
 I think Hillary would have been the cruise control candidate, Trump wants to blow shit up. Hope and change didn't accomplish anything? Two wars over, Affordable Care act passed, gay marriage rights, auto industry saved, recession killed and unemployment below 5% on his way out...those are just the biggies. Hope and Change wasn't perfect, but I'd hardly call the last 8 years idle time wasted. Contrast what he came into versus where we are now. Now we are going to make America "great" again. Lol. Great like the shape W left us in? Recession, 10% UE, 2 wars?

2Cent

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2016, 02:39:52 AM »
Buy stocks now. The shock will wear off in a few days and markets will return to normal.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2016, 03:05:32 AM »
Trump will have a Republican Senate for at least two years and a Republican House for probably indefinitely (unless gerrymandering laws are changed), they wont C-block him like they did Obama. He'll have conservative federal judges appointed with no problem. There will be 1-3 Supreme Court Judges up for grabs.

Look for the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Expect medical insurance profits to rise.

Expect your middle class taxes to increase and if you're more wealthy, expect your taxes to decrease. Trickle down economics theory will return.

I think relations with other countries will be poor.

I think the ignorant and loud will rule.

BrokenBiscuits

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2016, 03:06:10 AM »
We had a similar unexpected result recently over here in England when my people voted to leave the European union.

It will be near impossible to read any news that doesn't refer to the result in some way for a while.  But hopefully things return to normal or whatever counts for normalish pretty soon.

As for the markets, there will likely be buying opportunities as there were following brexit. I know a lot of mustachians are not market timers but I will occasionally top up extra if I see significant drops. My wealth benefitted from brexit (short term, who knows long term) even if it was not the result I wanted.

I can see the comparisons already, with the media suggesting large numbers of people uneducated beyond high school drove the result. Ultimately, it is what it is and now it's time to sit back and see what the ride will be like.

 

alsoknownasDean

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2016, 04:15:46 AM »
We'll see a flock to safe haven items (watch gold skyrocket) for a while, and in a while it'll calm down once people realise that the US economy will continue to kick along.

There'll be some areas that get defunded or disbanded. I'd expect Planned Parenthood and the EPA to be endangered species. Watch environmental/climate change regs get wound back.

They'll repeal ACA, but chances are health insurance premiums will continue to increase.

The minimum wage might get cut back again.

The TPP is probably not going to happen.

Restrictions on Chinese imports may harm the Chinese economy, and the economies of countries that have a significant amount of trade with China (including us here in Australia).

More worryingly, Trump's election might serve as propaganda/recruiting material for ISIL.

cerat0n1a

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2016, 04:29:38 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?

Protectionism is an interesting game to play for a country that owes $6 trillion to foreigners. Fine when you can simply crank up the printing presses to deal with your debts; anything that puts at risk the dollar as the world's de facto trading currency pushes the US over the edge pretty rapidly.

marty998

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2016, 05:09:58 AM »
I doubt you'll see the apocalypse that some have predicted. Maybe it's the alcohol talking but I think Trump will be determined to prove himself capable in the role.

You will not see any nukes. But you will see swift military retribution against any foreign country that threatens America (in whatever way, shape or form "threatened" takes).

I agree there will be significant tax cuts for the 1%. There will be attempts to shift the centre to the right. There will be a reframing of the culture wars - the topics so beloved by the left - gay marriage, climate change, refugees.

It won't be pretty, but the millions out there who have felt ignored, isolated and left out of 21st century progress will now feel like they are on top.

It won't change a damn thing for them however. Trump will govern for those like him, just as most politicians do. The situation for the server at the local Maccas will still be the same in 4 years time.

chasesfish

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2016, 05:37:25 AM »
Who really knows at this point?

20 years ago, Clinton sounded more Republican, Trump sounded more democrat.  I think the general mood outside of NY/Chicago/LA is the average working person is tired of elites telling them how to live their life.  Hillary Clinton was probably the only democrat that could loose to Trump.

At best, we'll have a republican president focused on the economy and regulation and ignore the "social" side of the house.   Worst case, he gets with the far right side and starts trying to "blow stuff up" an d kicks out reasonable house leader in Paul Ryan.

I don't think a lot will change, Democrats can still filibuster the Senate, so cooler heads will prevail. 
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The Guru

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 05:38:39 AM »
I doubt you'll see the apocalypse that some have predicted. Maybe it's the alcohol talking but I think Trump will be determined to prove himself capable in the role.

You will not see any nukes. But you will see swift military retribution against any foreign country that threatens America (in whatever way, shape or form "threatened" takes).

I agree there will be significant tax cuts for the 1%. There will be attempts to shift the centre to the right. There will be a reframing of the culture wars - the topics so beloved by the left - gay marriage, climate change, refugees.

It won't be pretty, but the millions out there who have felt ignored, isolated and left out of 21st century progress will now feel like they are on top.

It won't change a damn thing for them however. Trump will govern for those like him, just as most politicians do. The situation for the server at the local Maccas will still be the same in 4 years time.

^ This. I predict trump's blue-collar supporters will be experiencing a steamin' hot bowl of buyer's (voter's?) remorse before his first (and, one hopes, only) term is half over. While I'm sure that what benefits wealthy CEOs also benefits those who work for them in some magical fairyland somewhere I don't see The Donald as having the will to cause that to happen in the real world. As far as bringing jobs back from China, he could have done that with his own signature clothing line. But he didn't. I feel somewhat bad for those who feel like they've been left out of whatever prosperity the rest of us enjoy (if not the racism and xenophobia that seems to accompany it) but that sympathy is tempered by the knowledge that they should have questioned Trump's ability and/or desire to actually make it come about. Instead they blindly accepted what they wanted to hear. In short- they were played, pure and simple.

ysette9

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2016, 05:44:11 AM »
I'm seriously worried that a repeal of Obamacare means that our FIRE plans are in jeopardy. We can plan for cost increases but we cannot plan for one of us having our coverage dropped and being uncovered, should we develop a health condition down the road.
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deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2016, 05:55:40 AM »
You will lose a lot of money in the short term.  It will bounce back.  Your insurance will be go back to the way it was, still increasing year over year but no subsidies to lessen the bite.  If you get cancer, I hope your stash is really big or you pass quickly because you will be dropped.  If you are gay and married, I hope you enjoyed the experience.  at least one and potentially more young conservative supreme court justices will overturn that.  Probably 50/50 odds on Roe v Wade. 

As I told my wife last night who was very upset that so many people could be so wrong.  It will be ok, at least for us.  In many ways a Trump and republican dominated government is personally beneficial to me (assuming no nuclear war is started), but we voted for the greater good at our own expense.  I almost look forward to the schadenfreude I will feel when people who voted Trump start complaining about their taxes, their insurance, their jobs not coming back, spiraling deficits and debt.

People had a lot of doom and gloom predictions on Obama being elected, but remember those where all suppositions based on stereotypes (he will take away your guns.....despite never saying he had any desire to).  There is a lot of doom and gloom for Trump too, but unfortunately that is all based on him doing exactly what he said he wants to do.

MasterStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2016, 06:05:08 AM »
I am cautiously optimistic. I am just glad we have a system of checks and balances.

If Trump does indeed push through his agenda, I believe we'll have another stifling recession. And the very folks he "promised" to help, will be in much worse shape. The real irony of his plan. I am hopeful that President Trump will be vastly different from candidate Trump.

My biggest fears though are starting more wars, possibly with nukes and watching the renewable energy industry take a huge hit. Still hard to believe "we" elected a guy that sexually assaults women and believes China created climate change. Oh what a crazy country we live in.

boarder42

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2016, 06:07:45 AM »
lower taxes. and hopefully more efficient and simple tax code in the process. 

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deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2016, 06:09:10 AM »
lower taxes. and hopefully more efficient and simple tax code in the process. 

republican house/senate/president

Are you making 500k a year or more?  In that case, enjoy your lower taxes.  If not......HA HA HA

jinga nation

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2016, 06:11:32 AM »
I don't see a big change. Corporations and lobbyists will still run DC while the puppets change. Kabuki theater for the masses.

Obama promised no lobbyists, etc etc, railing on big money... etc. Then he rolled over. Or was bent over. Supreme Court grand cockup of corporations are people was the ultimate gangbang.

It was a choice of do you want a male wolf or female wolf, both are hungry. And will herd the sheep.

If Wikileaks did some damage, I'm happy for the truth to come out.

I hope Obama doesn't pardon Hillary on his way out, but I know he will.
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boarder42

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #17 on: November 09, 2016, 06:13:35 AM »
lower taxes. and hopefully more efficient and simple tax code in the process. 

republican house/senate/president

Are you making 500k a year or more?  In that case, enjoy your lower taxes.  If not......HA HA HA

his plan lowers taxes for those making less than 500k ... just the increased standard deduction does alot.
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Rufus.T.Firefly

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2016, 06:13:58 AM »
R-E-L-A-X. Relax.

Remember this: about half of the country was beside themselves for the last 8 years that Obama was elected, and re-elected. Before that, about half of the country was distraught over Bush being re-elected. Before that, about half of the country was ready to impeach Clinton at the end of his second term.

The election process lends itself extreme statements and hysteria. None of the above mentioned candidates were as terrible or as disastrous as the rhetoric suggests. In fact, they were all reasonably functional presidents. I knew a lot of Republicans who were rooting against Obama the moment he was in office - that doesn't make any sense to me.

I don't support Trump, but I'll sure as hell root for him now that he's our guy. And I will do so for every president because we're in this together, folks. If he does a terrible job, we'll get to vote him out in 4 years. But let's hope he does a great job. After all, he's surprised us a couple of of times already. Maybe he'll surprise us again.

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redbird

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2016, 06:19:43 AM »
The upside: stocks are gonna be on sale, guys. I wish I had even more money to throw at them.
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iowajes

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2016, 06:37:21 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax. 

AdrianC

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2016, 06:41:39 AM »
As I told my wife last night who was very upset that so many people could be so wrong.  It will be ok, at least for us.  In many ways a Trump and republican dominated government is personally beneficial to me (assuming no nuclear war is started), but we voted for the greater good at our own expense.  I almost look forward to the schadenfreude I will feel when people who voted Trump start complaining about their taxes, their insurance, their jobs not coming back, spiraling deficits and debt.

Well said. Same here. We're disappointed, but our family will be just fine.

acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2016, 06:54:00 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.
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KCM5

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2016, 07:06:08 AM »
I hope Obama doesn't pardon Hillary on his way out, but I know he will.

Pardon her for what?

Freedom2016

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2016, 07:07:38 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.

But not the workers? Isn't this exactly what would benefit Trump supporters - a real increase in wages? Those are not the folks holding index funds that will go up when shareholders get a little slice of that corporate pie.

deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2016, 07:14:15 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.

That is so cute you think the big companies will bring back money and enrich their workers and or shareholders. 

dycker1978

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2016, 07:22:38 AM »
As I told my wife last night who was very upset that so many people could be so wrong.  It will be ok, at least for us.  In many ways a Trump and republican dominated government is personally beneficial to me (assuming no nuclear war is started), but we voted for the greater good at our own expense.  I almost look forward to the schadenfreude I will feel when people who voted Trump start complaining about their taxes, their insurance, their jobs not coming back, spiraling deficits and debt.

Well said. Same here. We're disappointed, but our family will be just fine.

To me this is the biggest issue.  Your family may be fine, but what about those whom he has promised to discriminate against.  Ending marriage equality, starting shock therapy for those in the LGBT community to "straighten" them out.  The economy may be just fine(I do not know what the future holds) but human rights have been trampled on by Trump, and we have only seen the beginning.

OurTown

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2016, 07:35:52 AM »
Probably no nuclear war where the other side fires back.  I make no guarantees about a nuclear strike in Syria or Iran.

iowajes

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2016, 07:39:17 AM »
As I told my wife last night who was very upset that so many people could be so wrong.  It will be ok, at least for us.  In many ways a Trump and republican dominated government is personally beneficial to me (assuming no nuclear war is started), but we voted for the greater good at our own expense.  I almost look forward to the schadenfreude I will feel when people who voted Trump start complaining about their taxes, their insurance, their jobs not coming back, spiraling deficits and debt.

Well said. Same here. We're disappointed, but our family will be just fine.

That is little relief to me when I think of all the people who won't be. There are racial minorities, religious minorities, LGBTQ, immigrants (legal ones) who are genuinely scared right now.  My middle class white privilege of "I'm going to be okay" doesn't help me feel better at all.

Although I actually fall into a minority group that is unlikely to be affected, but I'm really really scared of what could happen if they hold a witch-hunt against it. So I have genuine fear for myself too.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2016, 07:45:19 AM »
The upside: stocks are gonna be on sale, guys. I wish I had even more money to throw at them.

I wouldn't call a 50 basis point drop in the S&P 500 a "sale". I too was licking my lips over this supposed  huge drop. Didn't happen.

I think in the end the republican congress will be better for business - but maybe not for anyone else.

Kris

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2016, 07:45:39 AM »
Well, given that he also has the House and the Senate, he should get pretty far down this list, at least:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/donald-trump-first-day-in-office
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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2016, 07:46:23 AM »
When Trump got the nomination I was like "Jesus, he might actually pull this off."  And so he has.  I would also remind various Chicken Littles that he will say ANYTHING if it gets him what he wants.  Yesterday, he wanted to throw Hillary Clinton in jail.  Today, he spoke respectfully of "Madam Secretary" and praised her tenacity.  And remember all the people whom, it was claimed, would never vote for him?  Well, guess what?  LGBTs voted for him.  Women voted for him.  Hispanics voted for him.  Hell, even Muslims voted for him.  Maybe not the majority, but much more than was predicted. 

Remember the kid in junior high who always tried to act tough and macho to fit in?  That's Trump in a nutshell.  He's always been mostly talk.  I think it may be sinking in that for perhaps the first time in his life he's going to be held accountable for what he's said.  And it's scaring the SHIT out of him. 
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bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2016, 07:47:27 AM »
The upside: stocks are gonna be on sale, guys. I wish I had even more money to throw at them.

I wouldn't call a 50 basis point drop in the S&P 500 a "sale". I too was licking my lips over this supposed  huge drop. Didn't happen.

I think in the end the republican congress will be better for business - but maybe not for anyone else.

Depends if Trump gets his wishes on NAFTA and the Fed. He could crater the economy very quickly.

MasterStache

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2016, 07:48:40 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.

That is so cute you think the big companies will bring back money and enrich their workers and or shareholders.


dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2016, 07:51:14 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2016, 07:58:13 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

Clinton mentioned infrastructure spending, too, and the consensus was that nothing would get done because Congress is reluctant to allocate money.

Will Congress follow his lead because, "Hey friends, we're all Republicans"? It's possible. I expect that it's just another campaign promise that will be forgotten in 6 months.

dividendman

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2016, 08:03:35 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

Clinton mentioned infrastructure spending, too, and the consensus was that nothing would get done because Congress is reluctant to allocate money.

Will Congress follow his lead because, "Hey friends, we're all Republicans"? It's possible. I expect that it's just another campaign promise that will be forgotten in 6 months.

Perhaps. But I think Trump can use his ability to "primary out" people to force them into Trumpism. There are some things I like about Trumpism more than the traditional Republican platform. Hopefully we get the best of both (socially liberal policies, simpler tax code, more infrastructure spending).

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2016, 08:09:24 AM »
Chill.

ACA Repeal: 2017 Republicans are smarter than 2010 Dems, they won't cut their own throats.
Verdict; no mandate, some change to the level of subsidy and maybe a time-cap or phase out of the subsidyindividually (5yrs?) and perhaps a an overlap (especially non medicaid expanded states) of subsidy and medicaid. Don't believe me? I live around these people, I do my best to think like they do.

War; Talks big to have greater negotiating power. Everything is on the table until it is not(negotiated off the table).
-We are out of the Middle east, maybe some type of containment involvement but that is it. He will leave it up to Europe/Japan and China to sort out who gets what oil.

Bad trade deals/inflation/jobs; as much as this has been his focus I am not sure how all this will work out. Higher tariffs for sure, Trump will likely fight GOP Congress on this with a consistent veto until he gets it. Actual jobs/factories will be slow to return, but the continued loss stopping of jobs will be immediate. Hopefully a focus on our trade deficit by country.

Gay rights/abortion/religious liberty-he will do his best to ignore.

Taxes; across the board small cut, but mostly a change in the standard deduction and increase in child tax credit/EITC. Between taxes/spending/debt increase we will get a lot of debt increases (if you are investing in the future on infrastructure/lowering unemployment etc I really don't see this as bad as other things we have done, esp. at todays rates)

Immigration/Deporting; Criminals will stay out. Through tariffs, preventing money from being wired to Mexico or some other clever means he will get Mexico to be much more cooperative in keeping people from il(licietly?) crossing the border. give it two years and if there are still lots of refugees some will come here, even Muslim ones.

Eminent Domain/Libel/other civil liberties; Not big on his agenda but there are probably enough libertarian conservatives and democrats to keep this in check.

The one I am worried about; Student loan repayments; Currently in IBR program. not looking forward to how this will go. Luckily a lot of Congress has kids who are probably on this too, fingers crossed but I know I have about 6-10 months before I should be ready to make a much larger payment. Overall, we all borrowed the money, just because someone offers you a handout doesn't mean you deserve it. Kinda like the ACA, it would make retiring easier but does not mean we are entitled to it.

Could people panic and the stock market tumble and stagnate? Sure, but the president can't really do much about that. All that cash sitting around could turn up inflation really, maybe even feel like hyperinflation(bad) but who knows.

EditInfrastructure/Environment/Coal; Congress will be slow to do infrastructure spending, but it will happen. CapnTrade wouldn't have happened with HRC either, this is mostly a wash. Nuclear is actually cheaper than coal, perhaps cooler heads will prevail, just don't expect an new regs on construction or mines. At least coal is point source pollution, can be controlled/mitigated. More instability in the middle east could mean higher gas prices...
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 10:35:00 AM by hoping2retire35 »

bacchi

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2016, 08:49:57 AM »
Bad trade deals/inflation/jobs; as much as this has been his focus I am not sure how all this will work out. Higher tariffs for sure, Trump will likely fight GOP Congress on this with a consistent veto until he gets it. Actual jobs/factories will be slow to return, but the continued loss stopping of jobs will be immediate. Hopefully a focus on our trade deficit by country.

Manufacturing will not come back. It's not a matter of them leaving the States; it's a matter of simply fewer of them due to automation. Nothing Trump can do will fix that.

Quote
Gay rights/abortion/religious liberty-he will do his best to ignore.

Will he have to appease his evangelical voters? Or will he assume that they haven't a choice so he can ignore them and still get their votes?

Quote
The one I am worried about; Student loan repayments; Currently in IBR program. not looking forward to how this will go. Luckily a lot of Congress has kids who are probably on this too

Hahaha, good one.

pdxbator

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2016, 09:05:58 AM »
I had plans to FIRE next June. It is now on hold to see what happens with the ACA. If Drumpf hands it over to the insurance companies (big businesses) rates will skyrocket even more and they won't accept applicants with pre-existing conditions.
already FI but telling myself I'll RE at age 50 in 7 years. Can I make it?

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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2016, 09:13:29 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

It's interesting how one can spend money to build infrastructure while cutting taxes and reduce the deficit and debt at the same time.

deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2016, 09:22:04 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

It's interesting how one can spend money to build infrastructure while cutting taxes and reduce the deficit and debt at the same time.

It's easy, you do it the same way you somehow restore large amounts of high paying single industry manufacturing jobs to small towns in the age of automation without causing trade wars and spiking the price of consumer goods.

accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2016, 09:28:54 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

It's interesting how one can spend money to build infrastructure while cutting taxes and reduce the deficit and debt at the same time.

It's easy, you do it the same way you somehow restore large amounts of high paying single industry manufacturing jobs to small towns in the age of automation without causing trade wars and spiking the price of consumer goods.
Not making fun here, but I'm not sure if this is a sarcastic reply or not. I don't think those manufacturing jobs are ever coming back. I feel for the rust belt, but when the jobs left, they should have too.

deadlymonkey

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2016, 09:37:45 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

It's interesting how one can spend money to build infrastructure while cutting taxes and reduce the deficit and debt at the same time.

It's easy, you do it the same way you somehow restore large amounts of high paying single industry manufacturing jobs to small towns in the age of automation without causing trade wars and spiking the price of consumer goods.
Not making fun here, but I'm not sure if this is a sarcastic reply or not. I don't think those manufacturing jobs are ever coming back. I feel for the rust belt, but when the jobs left, they should have too.

sarcastic.  The answer to both my statement and your is pixie dust and wishful thinking, those are the only things that can make Trump's promise to the rust belt come true.

RetiredAt63

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2016, 09:43:45 AM »
Gay rights/abortion/religious liberty-he will do his best to ignore.

Will he have to appease his evangelical voters? Or will he assume that they haven't a choice so he can ignore them and still get their votes?

Former PM Harper managed to control his hotheads about this and keep abortion off the agenda.  Mind you, IMHO Canada is further along the equal rights road than the US, we are mostly more OK with abortion and a lot more open to birth control availability.

Veering off topic a bit, I am curious to see his Cabinet makeup.  After all, PM Trudeau's first cabinet was 50% women (not to mention variable in other ways) and when asked he shrugged and said "It's 2015".  Which was accepted as a perfectly good answer.  Canada's ethnic diversity is different from the US's ethnic diversity, but it would be nice to see more than just white men in his cabinet.
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accolay

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #45 on: November 09, 2016, 09:47:01 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

It's interesting how one can spend money to build infrastructure while cutting taxes and reduce the deficit and debt at the same time.

It's easy, you do it the same way you somehow restore large amounts of high paying single industry manufacturing jobs to small towns in the age of automation without causing trade wars and spiking the price of consumer goods.
Not making fun here, but I'm not sure if this is a sarcastic reply or not. I don't think those manufacturing jobs are ever coming back. I feel for the rust belt, but when the jobs left, they should have too.

sarcastic.  The answer to both my statement and your is pixie dust and wishful thinking, those are the only things that can make Trump's promise to the rust belt come true.
Heh.

acroy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #46 on: November 09, 2016, 09:53:19 AM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens with those US companies that have very large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because tax. I'm assuming Trump will do something to get that money back into America - question is what does it get spent on?


Why would he do that though?  HIS companies have large amounts of money overseas that they're not bringing home because of tax.

End corporate income tax. The big companies will bring it 'home' in a heartbeat and find a vehicle to return it to shareholders.

That is so cute you think the big companies will bring back money and enrich their workers and or shareholders.
Way to be condescending.
Companies are in the business of doing one thing: making money for their owners. The offshore money is already on their books and implicit in the share price. It's just not in an American bank. They can't 'bring it home' and pay it out as a dividend (or do anything else with it) without paying corporate income tax, which shareholders do not want them to do.
Do you own any public companies? Vote as a shareholder? educated on these matters? Your comments indicate not.
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FIFoFum

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2016, 10:00:51 AM »
Changes at the federal level won't necessarily dictate change at the state level and changes that require courts to have more than the +1 of Scalia are not imminent. Policies that happen at the agency or executive level are in serious jeopardy (immigration/deportation choices, education, etc.). Dittto for policies that can be defunded easily.

If you live in blue state America, the right to same sex marriage won't be removed. But protections in workplace and schools are now a state/district-by-district matter with no fed support for LGBT people.

If you live in the places where abortion was actually available at all within blue state America, your right to abortion will not change. But all costs for health care, including abortion, in jeopardy.

ACA subsidies and Medicaid expansion are likely toast after 2 year transition unless your state can figure out how to turn a Paul Ryan block grant into enough money to cover these (very unlikely and not a likely priority given other safety net gutting).

Honestly - while I do worry about the white nationalist sentiment, the authoritarianism, racism, etc., the most likely changes are that Congress can push through more of the traditional Republican agenda you would have seen with any candidate (cruz, Rubio, bush, and so on). Tax rates will resemble the W Bush era. Good for rich people and corporations and no one else.

The "best" thing that could happen would be for Trump to stack his branch with whackadoo east coast friends (like a Guiliani), feel ego or power threatened by Paul Ryan, and revert back into the NY billionaire rich dude who was never really a republican in the first place. I don't see Mike Pence running much of anything, given how much Trump doesn't even like him (his last minute thank you to include him was laughable).
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hoping2retire35

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2016, 10:40:08 AM »
Bad trade deals/inflation/jobs; as much as this has been his focus I am not sure how all this will work out. Higher tariffs for sure, Trump will likely fight GOP Congress on this with a consistent veto until he gets it. Actual jobs/factories will be slow to return, but the continued loss stopping of jobs will be immediate. Hopefully a focus on our trade deficit by country.

Manufacturing will not come back. It's not a matter of them leaving the States; it's a matter of simply fewer of them due to automation. Nothing Trump can do will fix that.

Quote
Gay rights/abortion/religious liberty-he will do his best to ignore.

Will he have to appease his evangelical voters? Or will he assume that they haven't a choice so he can ignore them and still get their votes?

Quote
The one I am worried about; Student loan repayments; Currently in IBR program. not looking forward to how this will go. Luckily a lot of Congress has kids who are probably on this too

Hahaha, good one.

Jobs-mainly meant the factories, the actually # of jobs will be something ~1/10th. It will be slow to happen, decade(s).

(lgbt)/abortion/religious lib-he has their votes. Will begin to seethe as nothing happens. Supreme Court will take some time, if ever, before it turns back gay marriage.

Loans-glad you enjoyed.

asiljoy

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Re: What are the realistic impacts of a Trump presidency?
« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2016, 10:47:49 AM »
Does anyone have thoughts on his infrastructure ideas? He mentioned it in his speech.

While I think tax cuts will breeze through congress, will infrastructure spending?

I really hope Trump uses his political capital to change the republican party. Force them to do infrastructure and public works projects that the country desperately needs.

Clinton mentioned infrastructure spending, too, and the consensus was that nothing would get done because Congress is reluctant to allocate money.

Will Congress follow his lead because, "Hey friends, we're all Republicans"? It's possible. I expect that it's just another campaign promise that will be forgotten in 6 months.

They might follow his lead because he's in a better position to sell infrastructure investment as an investment in communities/businesses/to create jobs.

I don't believe that logically, but because my conservative family has told me that's what they believe.