Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves

[partgypsy]

Trump if elected will continue in office even if he continues to worsen in decision making and sense, as long as behind the scenes dismantling of democratic institutions continues. Republicans will only pull a 25th if Trump is seen as a liability/obstacle and or they want to move forward more quickly with project 2025. So no, Vance is bad news because he is 100% bought and paid for. Its the only reason he is there. 

[SunnyDays]

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

How do you plan for the worst here?

1) I hedged the stocks in my portfolio using an options collar back in late June / early July. This puts a floor on my potential losses, in exchange for an acceptable ceiling on my potential gains. Thus getting wiped out is not possible. Historically, the recession that traditionally accompanies Republican presidencies has come later in their term (Bush 1, Bush 2, Trump) and there are usually good investing years ahead of the bear market. I feel I'm solving for the paradox of how to both stay invested and also not get wiped out.

2) Fresh passports for the entire family. Funny how little things like proper documentation have historically been the difference between life and death for people caught in a rise-of-fascism moment.

3) An internationally accessible brokerage account with currency conversion options where I can transfer funds to use if I end up in foreign lands.

4) Still need to dig out my old Spanish CD set, or see how much free content is on Duolingo. Europe and Canada should not be assumed to be safe places, given the success of their own right-wing parties. Like these places, Australia and NZ have a cost of living crisis that will only get worse due to foreign investment. If I'm going to be a refugee, I'd rather retire in confidence in a place like Panama or Chile than quickly go broke in a place like Sydney. My hypothesis is that English-speaking places are more likely to go fascist than places where social media culture is less ingrained. I'm not a fan of the machismo or religiosity of Latin America, and their democracies have not been as stable in the past, but I simply see no need to flee the Republican party for Germany, only to watch the AfD win their next election. UK voters, meanwhile, have shot themselves in the foot so often in the past several years that it seems they are destined to destroy their democracy too.

5) Stop acquiring unnecessary stuff. The ratty couch can wait another year to be replaced. Decorations are just burdens. This is not a good time to be getting another pet. Etc. In fact, it's a good time to de-clutter or have a yard sale. Raise capital, reduce stuff.

Well, Canada's right wing party is a very far cry from yours.  I wouldn't let that be a deterrent, at least not anytime soon.

If you decide you require a sudden "vacation" up here, I have lots of room.  Seriously.

[ChpBstrd]

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

How do you plan for the worst here?

1) I hedged the stocks in my portfolio using an options collar back in late June / early July. This puts a floor on my potential losses, in exchange for an acceptable ceiling on my potential gains. Thus getting wiped out is not possible. Historically, the recession that traditionally accompanies Republican presidencies has come later in their term (Bush 1, Bush 2, Trump) and there are usually good investing years ahead of the bear market. I feel I'm solving for the paradox of how to both stay invested and also not get wiped out.

2) Fresh passports for the entire family. Funny how little things like proper documentation have historically been the difference between life and death for people caught in a rise-of-fascism moment.

3) An internationally accessible brokerage account with currency conversion options where I can transfer funds to use if I end up in foreign lands.

4) Still need to dig out my old Spanish CD set, or see how much free content is on Duolingo. Europe and Canada should not be assumed to be safe places, given the success of their own right-wing parties. Like these places, Australia and NZ have a cost of living crisis that will only get worse due to foreign investment. If I'm going to be a refugee, I'd rather retire in confidence in a place like Panama or Chile than quickly go broke in a place like Sydney. My hypothesis is that English-speaking places are more likely to go fascist than places where social media culture is less ingrained. I'm not a fan of the machismo or religiosity of Latin America, and their democracies have not been as stable in the past, but I simply see no need to flee the Republican party for Germany, only to watch the AfD win their next election. UK voters, meanwhile, have shot themselves in the foot so often in the past several years that it seems they are destined to destroy their democracy too.

5) Stop acquiring unnecessary stuff. The ratty couch can wait another year to be replaced. Decorations are just burdens. This is not a good time to be getting another pet. Etc. In fact, it's a good time to de-clutter or have a yard sale. Raise capital, reduce stuff.

Well, Canada's right wing party is a very far cry from yours.  I wouldn't let that be a deterrent, at least not anytime soon.

If you decide you require a sudden "vacation" up here, I have lots of room.  Seriously.

It would be like escaping the 1930s Nazis by moving to Belgium.

[Ron Scott]

Is anyone changing anything in their investment portfolio due to the election, and possible turmoil in the next months? I normally do not market time, but this time i'm wondering if the rules have changed...

If you have to watch some supposed indicator I’d go with Buffet’s positioning, not the Dems or the GOP. He’s still sitting on dry powder so.

I am getting increasingly wary of hearing stories about how hard it is to build new manufacturing plants in the US tho. Neither party has been helpful. Biden had to jump in maybe a month ago and push an order that CHIPS plants can bypass environmental reviews. Meanwhile in China LOL…

[RetiredAt63]

Is anyone changing anything in their investment portfolio due to the election, and possible turmoil in the next months? I normally do not market time, but this time i'm wondering if the rules have changed...

If you have to watch some supposed indicator I’d go with Buffet’s positioning, not the Dems or the GOP. He’s still sitting on dry powder so.

I am getting increasingly wary of hearing stories about how hard it is to build new manufacturing plants in the US tho. Neither party has been helpful. Biden had to jump in maybe a month ago and push an order that CHIPS plants can bypass environmental reviews. Meanwhile in China LOL…

Hmm, different countries, different cultures....

This story goes back several years.  There is an area in Canada where there are old silver mines, whose tailings still have quite a bit of silver in them.  American companies wanting to re-mine these tailings have found working with Canadian environmental regulators to be relatively easy versus American regulators.  However the regulation still exists, they have to follow environmental regulations and meet environmental guidelines. 

So maybe American regulators are more strict about following the letter of the law instead of the spirit?  The end result is the same but the process is different.  And then there is the underlying issue of why does the letter of the law have to be followed so closely? Will people/companies ride roughshod over the rules otherwise?  I don't know, but it is an interesting situation.

On the other hand, we are in a housing crisis in many of our major cities, and there is pressure to relax regulations, and debate about whether this is safe.  Given some of the governments involved, I am more on the side of being very careful about relaxing the rules, because the governments involved are much more likely to look the other way when there are safety violations.

Some people and the companies they run will take advantage of every loophole. Others are more civic-minded.

[Taran Wanderer]

Sometimes regulations are safety minded, and other times they have other ends in mind that just add cost to the development of new properties without adding a lot of value.  For example, on a recent project I’m involved with, a sidewalk was required several hundred feet out to the main road, and along the property’s frontage on the main road, but this property is miles out of town in an industrial area and there are no connecting sidewalks to the north for scores of miles, and no connecting sidewalks to the south for several miles.  Requiring sidewalks adds cost and headache and zero utility.

On the safety front, significant seismic and wind-load design factors require a robust building, even beyond being a robust building to support the manufacturing activity inside.  This makes for a safe building, and also a building with a useful life of 50 or 100 years or more.  On the other hand, this is a concrete and steel building filled with steel equipment which contains a non-flammable, edible liquid, and code requirements require a fully sprinklered building.  The sprinklers make no sense as the facility is highly purpose-built and there is nothing inside to burn.  A lot of cost and a lot of maintenance headache for little to no value.

That said, those are minor headaches compared to zoning and land use rules, density requirements (or prohibitions), and system development fees that can add both cost, and perhaps worse, months or years of delay or uncertainty about even getting the project approved.  Based on my experience, it’s the uncertainty and delay that are the biggest barriers to development of new housing or whatever is being built.  If you’re the one investing, why would you want to engage in years of paying consultants to develop plans and proposals and for attorneys to shepherd you through the approval process if there’s not a high level of confidence that you’ll get a “yes” at the end?  Developers will always whine about extra costs they have to pay (instead of the community paying those costs for them), but in the end, if the project pencils out, and if they have a high degree of confidence that it will be approved if they follow the rules, they’ll move forward with it… even with the whining.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

About 15 hours ago, simulations showed Trump with a 6-7% edge (53% to 47%, rounded) in chance of winning.  Currently, the same page shows a 1% edge to Harris from the latest polling (50% to 49%, rounded).  Catching up is something for Dems to be proud about.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[twinstudy]

I think Harris will win decisively.

I cannot imagine that there are enough people out there who would vote for Trump a 2nd (3rd?) time. Time will tell.

[LennStar]

Not the first time in the thread I wonder what US people understand under "decisivly". If even a day before based on recent polls you can't be sure who wins, that does not look like any "decisive" result could come out.
In a multi-party system "decisive" means e.g. mayority, or 40% while no one else has more than 20%.
But in an (effectivly) 2 party system majority has nothing to do with "decisive victory" since it's the necessary result of the end of the process.

On the other hand, we are in a housing crisis in many of our major cities, and there is pressure to relax regulations, and debate about whether this is safe.  Given some of the governments involved, I am more on the side of being very careful about relaxing the rules, because the governments involved are much more likely to look the other way when there are safety violations.

The housing crises has nothing to do with safety rules, and all with "you can build only this one, very wasteful type of house".
Well, not all, since costs like interest rates play a big role too (we do understand compaund interest here I hope).

Requiring sidewalks adds cost and headache and zero utility.

Maybe that is different in 20 years. But good luck getting sidewalk in in 20 years... besides that is an exception. For more often parking minimums are not only more costly but also with zero utility.

[Ron Scott]

If Harris pulls it off I will be more proud of American women than the Dems. The majority of American men just continue to disappoint…like they can’t stop being a base version of themselves.

Thank you Alice Paul!

[Paper Chaser]

I think Harris will win decisively.

I cannot imagine that there are enough people out there who would vote for Trump a 2nd (3rd?) time. Time will tell.

Not making any kind of prediction, but here in my Midwest red state I'm seeing more open support for Trump than I've seen since 2016. His most ardent supporters have not wavered, and people that were perhaps sympathetic but not openly supportive have begun displaying more and more Trump propaganda.

I spent a few days in Arizona/Nevada/Utah last month and saw nothing but Trump support on display. Can't remember a single Harris/Walz flag or yard sign, but Trump stuff was all over.

I'd like to think that people might've gotten wise to Trump's act, but I'm not seeing or hearing anybody who has shifted their views in recent years. I'm sure they exist, but Trump support at this point is cultural. If you live in a deeply Red location, and are open to anything else you're seen as an outsider that's greeted with a smirk of disgust or an eyeroll. I don't think he's lost many supporting votes, so it probably comes down to how many anti-trump voters show up.

[Omy]

If Harris pulls it off I will be more proud of American women than the Dems. The majority of American men just continue to disappoint…like they can’t stop being a base version of themselves.

Thank you Alice Paul!

If Harris pulls it off, it's because she ran a brilliant campaign with an excellent ground game. She got out her message while nimbly avoiding a lot of potential traps. She demonstrated that there's a big Democratic tent that will welcome debate and compromise. I'm extremely proud of the Democrats on this well run campaign.

I'm also proud of Dems for making a 4th quarter change to give us a chance to win. They left it all on the field.

[partgypsy]

I usually regret not posting predictions when I have them, so here's mine. Harris by a margin of 5.5% over Trump, including over 50% of the vote and an EC win.

I agree with the Harris win prediction.

I’m glad you guys are hopeful. I have a bad feeling about this. I see Trump by a hair. But regardless who wins we’re going to end up with an even more divided country…and this time more violent.

The timing couldn’t be worse either. We are already seeing the seeds of MAJOR international and domestic change, with China/Russia/NK/Iran, AI jobs impact, ongoing US difficulties in reclaiming manufacturing and a dependency on critical imports, etc., and the political upheaval is unprecedented.

My go-to strategy in general in life is to eschew worry and spend my time planning and acting. Problem here is I don’t think the US has a plan to face these challenges and acting without one is suboptimal at best.

I can't predict everything, but there may be a brain drain from the government if Trump gets elected. People complain about the government. But there are a lot of competent hard working and reliable unsung people that keep things going. When you have things like what happened to Fauci (someone esteemed in his field being undercut by his boss, to the point he is getting hate and even death threats mail) it has a chilling effect. One of the best things about America, is that we have civil servants who by and large, are employed based on their skills and qualifications and base decisions and actions on evidence-based, not politically-based reasons. To change that is a grave mistake. 

I am going to have to get off the internet tv for the next couple days...

[achvfi]

Last chance to vote folks. Vote early and encourage your family and friends.

I am going vote at 10 am today. Tell us your voting experience.

[Ron Scott]

Last chance to vote folks. Vote early and encourage your family and friends.

I am going vote at 10 am today. Tell us your voting experience.

Voted in person on Sunday. No lines. In and out. Wife broke foot and completed mail-in ballot, and I dropped it off in the box there. All good.

[ChpBstrd]

About 15 hours ago, simulations showed Trump with a 6-7% edge (53% to 47%, rounded) in chance of winning.  Currently, the same page shows a 1% edge to Harris from the latest polling (50% to 49%, rounded).  Catching up is something for Dems to be proud about.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

I would call this a forecast for a contested outcome. Expect a blizzard of lawsuits and media panic for the next 2.5 months, if not longer. The end game may be something like 2000 when the Supreme Court halted vote re-counting in Florida. This particular Supreme Court would be glad to step into such a role, and would only hand the presidency to one candidate.

This time I think the epicenter will be in Pennsylvania or Nevada - both dead even according to polls. The election will likely swing around a few hundred votes in either place and those will be challenged. A Harris path to victory probably requires Michigan (or Wisconsin) and Pennsylvania if she loses Nevada and Arizona.

[ChpBstrd]

Tell us your voting experience.

Voted in person on Sunday. No lines. In and out. Wife broke foot and completed mail-in ballot, and I dropped it off in the box there. All good.

Same. Early voted on Sunday. No lines. More poll workers than voters. Seems like an ominous sign for Democrats, who have historically dominated in early voting.

[jinga nation]

I think Harris will win decisively.

I cannot imagine that there are enough people out there who would vote for Trump a 2nd (3rd?) time. Time will tell.

You're underestimating the 'Murican way of shooting themselves in the foot and blaming others for it.

Democracy is on the line. There was a time when any American spoke nicely about Russia, that they would be considered suspicious, and maybe investigated. Trump has normalized the pro-Putin stance, with help from his oligarch backers. And "patriotic people" are ok with voting for the old man. SAD! ! !

I'm nauseatingly optimistic, but bracing for the bad news if it happens. I voted early by mail 2 weeks ago, prior to a work trip.

I'm happy the Democrats have done all they could have done. Let's see how voting goes and the results come in tonight.

[brandon1827]

Purely anecdotal and won't affect the outcome in my deeply red state...but over the past month I've seen more and more Harris/Walz yard signs popping up. Since Trump became the face of "Conservatism" in 2015-2016 it's been nothing but Trump signs/flags around here, so seeing anything but that anywhere around here gives me a little hope that there is some sanity left in the people of Tennessee...but like I said...won't change the outcome of how my state votes

[jrhampt]

I voted early on the first day the polls were open in my state, two weeks ago.  There were modest lines of people, looked like steady volume.

[SuperNintendo Chalmers]

Spoiled here in CO.  Received mail ballot weeks ago, took leisurely time reading through and researching all the propositions, etc., dropped it off a week ago at a location 3 miles from my house, received email confirmation that it had been received. 

[NorCal]

Spoiled here in CO.  Received mail ballot weeks ago, took leisurely time reading through and researching all the propositions, etc., dropped it off a week ago at a location 3 miles from my house, received email confirmation that it had been received.

As a CO resident, I look at lines at polling locations and think WHY?  It feels backwards.

We truly are spoiled here. Everyone gets a ballot in the mail and you can fill it out at your leisure. It’s particularly helpful for obscure ballot measures that require some thought and research.  And you can even check the status of your ballot online. I turned mine in last week, and I could see that it was processed by the following morning.

[SuperNintendo Chalmers]

Spoiled here in CO.  Received mail ballot weeks ago, took leisurely time reading through and researching all the propositions, etc., dropped it off a week ago at a location 3 miles from my house, received email confirmation that it had been received.

As a CO resident, I look at lines at polling locations and think WHY?  It feels backwards.

We truly are spoiled here. Everyone gets a ballot in the mail and you can fill it out at your leisure. It’s particularly helpful for obscure ballot measures that require some thought and research.  And you can even check the status of your ballot online. I turned mine in last week, and I could see that it was processed by the following morning.

Yup.  I feel like if this were instituted everywhere it would take the blood pressure of the country down a few notches.  Of course, there are probably vested interests in making sure that doesn't happen.

[dandarc]

Spoiled here in CO.  Received mail ballot weeks ago, took leisurely time reading through and researching all the propositions, etc., dropped it off a week ago at a location 3 miles from my house, received email confirmation that it had been received.

As a CO resident, I look at lines at polling locations and think WHY?  It feels backwards.

We truly are spoiled here. Everyone gets a ballot in the mail and you can fill it out at your leisure. It’s particularly helpful for obscure ballot measures that require some thought and research.  And you can even check the status of your ballot online. I turned mine in last week, and I could see that it was processed by the following morning.

Yup.  I feel like if this were instituted everywhere it would take the blood pressure of the country down a few notches.  Of course, there are probably vested interests in making sure that doesn't happen.

Actually how it works in Florida - they don't automatically send, but anyone can request absentee voting. Because Republicans gonna suppress the vote, they did change rules so this absentee request does not last as long as it did, but you just go to website to check your status and request.  Very good way to vote.

Friend from old neighborhood did vote in person and pointed out the social aspect - at least in our neighborhood, the precinct is in the central neighborhood park, the neighborhood association provides coffee and donuts. Great chance to meet and catch up with your neighbors.

Good neighborhood and that association I think is a pretty good model for what a neighborhood association can be - not an HOA, but a 100% voluntary org that does stuff like parties in the park and providing donuts on election day.

[achvfi]

I voted. No lines here, easy peasy. Wife on her way to vote now.

[Sandi_k]

We dropped off our ballots last Monday. Got a text that they had been received by Wednesday, as we headed off for a 13 day holiday.

:-)

[Glenstache]

I voted by mail (standard practice in WA) like two weeks ago. I've mostly just been festering on my dislike of the electoral college because of how it disenfranchises voters. I live in a state that goes largely blue in federal elections, but my vote is devalued proportional to the number of percentage points above 50% we go blue. If I were a republicam, it would be even more frustrating because my vote would have no sway at all once the tally goes blue even if my neighbor across the street in Idaho has their vote be successful. We let slavery go over a century ago, can we now let go of the voting mechanations that were designed to support that system go too? Ugh.

[reeshau]

We voted last Tuesday.  Waited 1 hour.  By the time we left, the line was up to 2 hours.

The news said 46% of registered voters had voted by Friday in Harris County, which is Houston.

[Kris]

I voted. No lines here, easy peasy. Wife on her way to vote now.

Just voted. No lines where we were, but there were more people than usual. Our neighborhood is maybe 50% white, 50% POC, and usually we see mostly white people at the polls. This time the vast majority of the voters we saw were Black. Hoping that is a good sign.

[wenchsenior]

We voted last Tuesday.  Waited 1 hour.  By the time we left, the line was up to 2 hours.

The news said 46% of registered voters had voted by Friday in Harris County, which is Houston.

Early voting in my part of TX was like nothing I've experienced ever in any location, certainly far exceeding anything previously seen here in 20+ years.

[dividendman]

Harris down to low 40%s in the betting markets, Trump up to 60% https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/markets

That's the biggest spread since interactive brokers started offering these contracts.

[dandarc]

looks like an arb opportunity more than anything if the prices are up to date - bet both no's for $0.97 total & about as guaranteed a profit as you can get. Unless there's fees I'm not seeing.

[Telecaster]

I think Harris will win decisively.

I cannot imagine that there are enough people out there who would vote for Trump a 2nd (3rd?) time. Time will tell.

I can imagine it.  In fact, I don't have to imagine it.   I'm from a red state, and all I have to do is look at what my college-education high school friends are saying about Trump on Facebook.   Reality has no bearing on their views at all.   Many of Trump's former advisors recently denouncing him (Mattis, McAlister, Tillerson, Kelly, etc.)   to them proof positive that the Deep State is out to get Trump and it is imperative that Trump wins in order to save the country. 

[reeshau]

Harris down to low 40%s in the betting markets, Trump up to 60% https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/markets

That's the biggest spread since interactive brokers started offering these contracts.

I've seen Harris's number as low as 38% on IB--some days ago.

[ChpBstrd]

Harris down to low 40%s in the betting markets, Trump up to 60% https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/markets

That's the biggest spread since interactive brokers started offering these contracts.

There's also the observation that the Democrat usually does not win unless they are leading significantly in the polls. Polling error was 3.9% (overstating Biden's support) in 2020. Clinton ended up losing key swing states where she was supposed to be ahead. Basically Democrats are either more likely to answer polls or are less likely to get around to actually voting.

We should not trust any Democratic lead of less than 5%. Looking at the polls and interactive map on 538, that means Harris probably losses PA, MI, NV, WI, and AZ and we're looking at a very possible Republican sweep. I think the betting odds are fair.

[Dancin'Dog]

There are plenty of variables at play to wonder about in this election.  How difficult would it be for the dark players to skew the polls?  It would seem easier to fudge the polling data than to boost attendance at the Trump rallies.   Harris's rallies have been sold out, while Trump's barely fill the camera frame. 

[the_gastropod]

There's also the observation that the Democrat usually does not win unless they are leading significantly in the polls. Polling error was 3.9% (overstating Biden's support) in 2020. Clinton ended up losing key swing states where she was supposed to be ahead. Basically Democrats are either more likely to answer polls or are less likely to get around to actually voting.

We should not trust any Democratic lead of less than 5%. Looking at the polls and interactive map on 538, that means Harris probably losses PA, MI, NV, WI, and AZ and we're looking at a very possible Republican sweep. I think the betting odds are fair.

Pollsters try to adjust for this. These polls you're referencing, in 2024, are already adjusted to try to make up for past misses. The raw results skew significantly in Harris's favor (~6% ahead). It's true in the past 2 presidential elections, the polls underestimated Republicans. But that's pretty much just random. In 2012, polls underestimated Democrats by ~3%. These polls this year will almost certainly have have an error. We won't know who they underestimated until the results come in.

This is a really good read about all the reasonable ways pollsters tweak the data, and the significant difference different reasonable choices can make: https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/

[bacchi]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

[dividendman]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

They halted trading on DJT.

[bacchi]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

They halted trading on DJT.

Oh, yeah, when it dropped from 40 to 33 within an hour. Volume spike on the last cliff fall too. I wonder who sold?

[dividendman]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

They halted trading on DJT.

Oh, yeah, when it dropped from 40 to 33 within an hour. Volume spike on the last cliff fall too. I wonder who sold?

Maybe that rich French dude who swung all the betting markets to Trump is hedging his bets.

[dandarc]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

They halted trading on DJT.

Oh, yeah, when it dropped from 40 to 33 within an hour. Volume spike on the last cliff fall too. I wonder who sold?

Maybe that rich French dude who swung all the betting markets to Trump is hedging his bets.

Maybe it is Trump hedging his bets.

[Omy]

Filling up his suitcases with cash to move to Venezuela?

[ChpBstrd]

I bought some 30 strike puts on DJT when it was sitting near 40 this morning. It's now at ~35. If he wins, it'll go much higher; if he loses, it'll sink to <10 fairly quickly.

They halted trading on DJT.

Oh, yeah, when it dropped from 40 to 33 within an hour. Volume spike on the last cliff fall too. I wonder who sold?

For a second, the mid price on a 3 day DJT iron condor with a $1 maximum loss was a $1.24 credit. I tried to pounce but my brokerage's system threw up an error and said the credit cannot exceed the width of the spread. It wasn't worth the danger to try playing with the midair knife using separate orders.

Maybe I should post this in Mustachian People Problems but WTF am I banned from scalping free premium in volatile markets with large bid-ask spreads? Is the brokerage afraid of being overrun with stink bids?

[dandarc]

Filling up his suitcases with cash to move to Venezuela?

Precisely. Doubt he can raise enough cash for Vlad to actually give him sanctuary.

[ChpBstrd]

There's also the observation that the Democrat usually does not win unless they are leading significantly in the polls. Polling error was 3.9% (overstating Biden's support) in 2020. Clinton ended up losing key swing states where she was supposed to be ahead. Basically Democrats are either more likely to answer polls or are less likely to get around to actually voting.

We should not trust any Democratic lead of less than 5%. Looking at the polls and interactive map on 538, that means Harris probably losses PA, MI, NV, WI, and AZ and we're looking at a very possible Republican sweep. I think the betting odds are fair.

Pollsters try to adjust for this. These polls you're referencing, in 2024, are already adjusted to try to make up for past misses. The raw results skew significantly in Harris's favor (~6% ahead). It's true in the past 2 presidential elections, the polls underestimated Republicans. But that's pretty much just random. In 2012, polls underestimated Democrats by ~3%. These polls this year will almost certainly have have an error. We won't know who they underestimated until the results come in.

This is a really good read about all the reasonable ways pollsters tweak the data, and the significant difference different reasonable choices can make: https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/

Thanks for the link @the_gastropod. Good information there. When we add our own tilt to a poll that was already tilted to correct for the same tendencies we tilted for, we double-tilt.

Seems like a lot of the polling error comes from counter-steering out of the error from the last cycles. In a dynamic world where demographics, enthusiasm, and political fads swing left and right, it seems difficult to get this adjustment right. E.g. Trump encouraged supporters not to answer polls in 2020, but has largely refrained from doing so in 2024. To what extent should the polls adjust for this factor? It's pure guesswork when talking in fractions of 1% of a sample that is itself a fraction of 1% of the population and situations that have never happened before, like for example a candidate discouraging poll responses or being a convicted felon.

[simonsez]

Last chance to vote folks. Vote early and encourage your family and friends.

I am going vote at 10 am today. Tell us your voting experience.

Voted today with my wife.  Went around 11am to our local precinct.  Saw a few familiar faces from around the neighborhood.  The line was about 10 people long with about 40-50 people voting in the elementary gymnasium, stood there for about 2 minutes.  The voting itself took about 10 minutes (combined federal/state/local ballot).  Everyone was friendly.  Only two people standing outside and they would only talk about the pamphlets they had in their hand if you asked them (based on a guy we saw strike up a convo ahead of us while walking in on the parking lot).  They just smiled and said hi as we walked in and out. 

All-around just a nice dose of civic duty, good day!

[Radagast]

I usually regret not posting predictions when I have them, so here's mine. Harris by a margin of 5.5% over Trump, including over 50% of the vote and an EC win. Surprises more likely to the upside because Trump has been deliberately trying to piss off big groups over the past weeks and I don't know how far those groups will go. Not just liberals. Constitutionalists, libertarians, neocons, good government types, defenders of Ukraine, those who don't like vulgarity (Trump just this morning explained he was not pretending to have oral sex with his microphone, he was obviously pretending to eat a corndog, ELECTION INTERFERENCE!), and of course droves of women and Hispanic voters.

Reasons polls are systematically wrong toward Trump:
Pollsters are determined not to underestimate Trump at any cost.
Harris is trying to project a tight race with slim odds of success to motivate voters
Trump is deliberately trying to project a big lead in polls and early voting (source: 50 text messages I got saying TRUMP WANTS YOU TO VOTE EARLY) so he can claim the vote was stolen, and attempt an end run around the Constitution
The motivation for everyone involved is to overestimate Trump, and they are strongly motivated.

Further, the media echo chamber says "it's too close to call, we've never seen a race this close in history!" and when the echo is this strong it generally means they are about to get it wrong bigly (either they are being fed information, they have their own motives, they are herding together for comfort and safety, or some combination). Combining this with liberal worrywarts who are a contrarian indicator in conjunction with the media echo tells you which side they are about to get it wrong bigly in.

Of course that only happens if everyone votes, so if you read this you should not at all feel like you can relax and not vote, have you not done so already and for some reason would not.

And if I'm wrong you can forum shame me forever and ever.

You can forum shame me forever and ever. Contrarianism doesn't always pay off.

I was near the median voter 2014-2022, but the country has apparently shifted right of me in the ball park of 5% this year, for reasons I probably cannot understand.

[blue_green_sparks]

Well, bye-bye ACA subsidies. If this country had knuckles, they would be dragging somewhere around South America.

[Radagast]

Trump's position is that the entire problem with our electoral system is that it allows swing voters in swing states to decide the election. Elections should be decided by Trump voters only. So, if swing voters in swing states vote Trump, they're dumber than I thought. (Narrator voice: "people are routinely dumber than Radagast thinks").

2020: Trump tries to disqualify swing state votes.
2024: Swing state voters: "It's not stealing if you hand it over!"