Author Topic: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves  (Read 160457 times)

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #900 on: September 10, 2024, 07:25:44 PM »
I don't get why conservatives hate abortion so much. Letting women abort unwanted or borderline babies leads to a lower welfare bill at the end of the day - its taxes saved. You'd have a net tax saving if you started paying mums $200 for an abortion.
I wish Democrats and Republicans understood each other's views better.  In this case, Evangelical Christians (who are staunchly Republican) place value in "Life".  Capitalized "Life" - a pure, abstract thing they defend as a core value.  When that pure thing is tainted by abortion, they react with disgust, and equate abortion with murder.

The best balancing act I've seen was by comedian Bill Burr:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj3cE-i27jc

You would think, then, that they would staunchly advocate for free birth control dispensing everywhere as well as more education for teens to reduce the chance of unwanted pregnancies, right?
it is not about actually reducing abortions.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #901 on: September 10, 2024, 09:01:16 PM »
Well, she did a great job just now. She was articulate, assertive, and convincing. And she actually sounded centrist. She is of the Dems, but better than them.

I hope this is the start of the campaign.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #902 on: September 10, 2024, 09:09:34 PM »
She is of the Dems, but better than them.

What does that even mean?


I hope this is the start of the campaign.

Um… sure, if we ignore the previous six weeks on the Harris side and six+ months on the Trump campaign then this can be the start of the campaign from this point forward.

twinstudy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #903 on: September 10, 2024, 09:11:07 PM »
Well, she did a great job just now. She was articulate, assertive, and convincing. And she actually sounded centrist. She is of the Dems, but better than them.

I hope this is the start of the campaign.

Why did Vance go on and on about "securing the border"? Are that many Americans really that worried about Mexicans taking their jobs or something? Christ, if your skills are so low that a bloke with no social capital, no actual capital and half-baked English skills can take your job, then you deserve to lose it.


Tigerpine

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #904 on: September 10, 2024, 09:26:25 PM »
Apparently Taylor Swift has now endorsed Kamala Harris over on Instagram.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/taylor-swift-endorses-kamala-harris-rcna170547

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #905 on: September 10, 2024, 10:18:07 PM »
Apparently Taylor Swift has now endorsed Kamala Harris over on Instagram.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/taylor-swift-endorses-kamala-harris-rcna170547

… and when asked about it, Trumps spokesperson dismissed the endorsement saying: “I’m not a teeny-bopper”

That’s shade thrown at Swifties, most of whom are definitely not teenagers, let alone young teens.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #906 on: September 10, 2024, 10:20:20 PM »
Apparently Taylor Swift has now endorsed Kamala Harris over on Instagram.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/taylor-swift-endorses-kamala-harris-rcna170547

Devastatingly, Swift said that she felt compelled to clarify her voting position since Trump was re-Tweeting AI images that falsely indicated her supporting him...  Another self-inflicted Trump wounding his own campaign.

BC_Goldman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #907 on: September 10, 2024, 10:25:41 PM »
I just want to throw out this great post I saw about the debate tonight. "Eating the pets!" rant set to the Peanuts theme!

https://vxtwitter.com/NoahGarfinkel/status/1833708370974695574

twinstudy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #908 on: September 10, 2024, 10:26:07 PM »
Looks like Trump got wrecked in the debate.

The fact that Trump is even a political candidate at all is evidence of the deplorability of the American political landscape and the deplorables who populate the country.

Keep in mind, I'm not even a lefty. I vote for the right-wing Australian party (on economic grounds). The American political landscape is genuinely unhinged.

Glenstache

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #909 on: September 10, 2024, 10:45:03 PM »
Looks like Trump got wrecked in the debate.

The fact that Trump is even a political candidate at all is evidence of the deplorability of the American political landscape and the deplorables who populate the country.

Keep in mind, I'm not even a lefty. I vote for the right-wing Australian party (on economic grounds). The American political landscape is genuinely unhinged.
Yep. It turns out that decades of a political party saying government is unconditionally bad, and leveraging religion to court evangelical votes to counteract a shinking demographic, and then using culture wars in lieu of an actual platform does not yield stellar results. Unhinged is far too kind.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #910 on: September 10, 2024, 10:53:46 PM »
It’s also too bad because the free market principles of the old Republican Party have a lot of merit in many (but definitely not all) policy decisions.  Competition and reward personal can be powerful motivators when channeled with intelligent policy guardrails.

LennStar

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #911 on: September 10, 2024, 11:24:10 PM »
Well, she did a great job just now. She was articulate, assertive, and convincing. And she actually sounded centrist. She is of the Dems, but better than them.

I hope this is the start of the campaign.

Why did Vance go on and on about "securing the border"? Are that many Americans really that worried about Mexicans taking their jobs or something? Christ, if your skills are so low that a bloke with no social capital, no actual capital and half-baked English skills can take your job, then you deserve to lose it.
No, they deserve to be kissed and the foreigners to be hanged.

Don't try logic. The whole German politics is currently running towards the right because there were a few cases were muslim islamists killed others with a knife. Including officially reinstituting border controls for 6 month on the German border (inside EU are no controls at border, just "rolling" ones everywhere)

To put into perspective: There are still more Germans getting killed by Germans on the Autobahn because of too high speed then people getting killed by those islamic "knife men" (A word that alone screams Putin Psy Ops to me). But the same people resist a speed limit with all they got. Because it's from the Greens they probably say. It's not about logic or saving lives, it's racism and tribal thinking. 

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #912 on: September 10, 2024, 11:32:58 PM »
Unlimited speed on the Autobahn seems better than our gun situation in the USA, though I wouldn’t want unlimited speed here.  People don’t have the lane discipline for it here.

@LennStar - Out of curiosity, would you happen to know how many Autobahn deaths are in “innocent” vehicles?  This this I mean vehicles that are perhaps hit by the high-speed vehicles.

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #913 on: September 10, 2024, 11:52:55 PM »
While Harris did very well in the debate, let's not forget the election is months away and Trump has the amazing ability to just flood the zone with so much BS nobody will remember this by then.

I still think Trump is the favorite given where Biden stood in 2020 at this time in the polls and how the victory was so close.

twinstudy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #914 on: September 11, 2024, 12:37:36 AM »
It’s also too bad because the free market principles of the old Republican Party have a lot of merit in many (but definitely not all) policy decisions.  Competition and reward personal can be powerful motivators when channeled with intelligent policy guardrails.

Yep. I'll never understand why neoliberal parties have to court the conservative/evangelical base instead of courting the soft-left, socially progressive base.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #915 on: September 11, 2024, 02:05:10 AM »

I wish Democrats and Republicans understood each other's views better.  In this case, Evangelical Christians (who are staunchly Republican) place value in "Life".  Capitalized "Life" - a pure, abstract thing they defend as a core value.  When that pure thing is tainted by abortion, they react with disgust, and equate abortion with murder.


I think most people are keenly aware that Evangelical Christians are staunchly opposed to all abortion and view themselves as placing a high value on unborn life (hence why they refer to themselves as "Pro-Life"...).  They have been crystal clear on that, no misunderstanding of their viewpoints. 

What I find immensely frustrating is that they are trying to impose their religious views and values on the majority, and ironically under the subtext of "freedom", under even the most extreme circumstances (e.g. rape, incest, viability of the fetus and health of the mother).  No one is arguing against a person's right to carry a healthy pregnancy to term, but the Evangelicals wish to take away the rights of non-Evangelicals to terminate a pregnancy, even when it's very high risk, early-stage and/or unwanted. It's the epitome of forcing one's religious views on others, even when it is ethically and medically dubious.
One of them could inform the discussion better than I could, but as I understand it, they view abortion as murder.  They want prison sentences for medical professionals who assist in abortions.

I've seen "religious freedom" mentioned by the same people who are pro-life, but I haven't seen "freedom" used as an argument to restrict access to abortion.  To me, religious freedom is being allowed to do something, rather than as you point out restricting other people's right to do something.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #916 on: September 11, 2024, 02:20:15 AM »
While Harris did very well in the debate, let's not forget the election is months away and Trump has the amazing ability to just flood the zone with so much BS nobody will remember this by then.

I still think Trump is the favorite given where Biden stood in 2020 at this time in the polls and how the victory was so close.
Election polling in both 2016 and 2020 undercounted Trump voters.  The polls in 2024 are probably still flawed in the same manner, suggesting a tie actually hides a Trump victory.

I think calling Trump "weird" has done more damage than people realize.  Before, Trump could outrage people... but now, people can just classify that as "weird".  But the news media loves to hate Trump - they want anything outrageous to anger their viewers, who then watch longer and earn them more ad revenue.  They get paid to piss people off, so their incentives are actually aligned with flooding the zone with BS.

Before the debate, I didn't realize how well Harris could troll Trump.  What impressed me is how she trolled him while sticking to a point she was trying to make, and then he couldn't help but focus on being trolled.  She criticized his tariffs, adding a quick jab about Wharton economics professors.  Another point on her middle class background, as contrasted with $400 million in real estate from his dad.  (Which he denied, and I might have retorted "Well, not $400 million when you reported it to the IRS").  Hitting Trump with truthful trolling seems to work well.

reeshau

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #917 on: September 11, 2024, 05:33:00 AM »
What I wonder now is, will Trump want a rematch?  Prior to this, I think the betting line was that this was the only debate for them, because if Trump won or at least held it together, he would have made his point.  With his performance largely panned, will he want to try again, or avoid more damage?

I wonder if Kamala will come up with some way to needle him about the debate, in the same way she pushed his buttons last night: either using the exact wording at a rally or in a commercial, or perhaps some quotes from him?

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #918 on: September 11, 2024, 05:49:41 AM »
She made her points, and then would drop a bait. And almost every time he would take the bait. He can't help himself. While when he made obvious personal attacks, she did not take his bait. I think her job as a prosecuter served her well. I like how she said in all her roles she has had only one client, us. And whenever she has helped a client she has never asked if they are Democrat or Republican, but are you ok? Her whole life reflects her values. I think she will mostly focus on domestic issues. But obviously will be able to hold her own with foreign leaders as well.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #919 on: September 11, 2024, 06:46:41 AM »

One of them could inform the discussion better than I could, but as I understand it, they view abortion as murder.  They want prison sentences for medical professionals who assist in abortions.

I've seen "religious freedom" mentioned by the same people who are pro-life, but I haven't seen "freedom" used as an argument to restrict access to abortion.  To me, religious freedom is being allowed to do something, rather than as you point out restricting other people's right to do something.

That’s the issue I have with their stance, though. They are using a religious belief that abortion is murder in all cases and frequently from the moment of conception. It’s not a stance that is consistent with our understanding of biology or ethics.   

Yes, religious freedom is part of freedom. Again, no one is preventing evangelicals (or other so-called “pro-lifers”) from deciding they will not have an abortion. But the core of their argument for why others should be prohibited from having abortion is couched in their own religious beliefs (it is gods will; abortion is murder; a fetus has a soul; the life of the unborn is as (or more) important than the life of the mother; the father is the head of the household and must get a say on the fate of his unborn; children are innocent, mothers must seek forgiveness for their sins; God will not give you more than you can handle).
Those are religious beliefs used to justify why non believers should also not have the option of an abortion.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #920 on: September 11, 2024, 06:50:20 AM »
I was trying to enjoy eating my pets while hearing Trump's lies, so I just turned the TV off. The great businessman is back on comrade Musk's Twitter, so Truth Social stock is tanking just as Trump's sell lockup is expiring. He needs money so I bet he will take a loan against his stock, because if he sells a bunch there will be some very unhappy MAGA bag holders.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #921 on: September 11, 2024, 07:40:46 AM »
I don't get why conservatives hate abortion so much. Letting women abort unwanted or borderline babies leads to a lower welfare bill at the end of the day - its taxes saved. You'd have a net tax saving if you started paying mums $200 for an abortion.
I wish Democrats and Republicans understood each other's views better.  In this case, Evangelical Christians (who are staunchly Republican) place value in "Life".  Capitalized "Life" - a pure, abstract thing they defend as a core value.  When that pure thing is tainted by abortion, they react with disgust, and equate abortion with murder.

The best balancing act I've seen was by comedian Bill Burr:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj3cE-i27jc
You would think, then, that they would staunchly advocate for free birth control dispensing everywhere as well as more education for teens to reduce the chance of unwanted pregnancies, right?
Actually birth control can prevent implantation of a fertilized blastocyst in some cases where ovulation can occur, by causing the uterine endometrium to be unprepared to support an embryo. For this reason, birth control is considered murder too. Conservatives are smart enough to understand that the struggle against birth control comes after a national abortion ban, and that banning birth control is outside the current Overton Window, so they don't bring it up.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #922 on: September 11, 2024, 07:47:59 AM »
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/09/11/harris-surges-past-trump-in-election-betting-markets-after-presidential-debate/
Quote

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four separate markets, bookmakers now believe Harris has a 51.8% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 46.9%.

This is a major shift in favor of Harris, whose chances have risen by more than four and a half points in the past 24 hours, while Trump’s have plummeted by four.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #923 on: September 11, 2024, 07:49:59 AM »
What I wonder now is, will Trump want a rematch?  Prior to this, I think the betting line was that this was the only debate for them, because if Trump won or at least held it together, he would have made his point.  With his performance largely panned, will he want to try again, or avoid more damage?

I wonder if Kamala will come up with some way to needle him about the debate, in the same way she pushed his buttons last night: either using the exact wording at a rally or in a commercial, or perhaps some quotes from him?

And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?  or to see if their candidate completely flubs it?   It's portrayed more like a sports team matchup than a policy discussion.
And don't get me started on the panel of "undecided voters" on CNN - really?  In September 2024 you still don't know who would be the best leader for the U.S.?   

Glenstache

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #924 on: September 11, 2024, 08:03:08 AM »
I was trying to enjoy eating my pets while hearing Trump's lies, so I just turned the TV off. The great businessman is back on comrade Musk's Twitter, so Truth Social stock is tanking just as Trump's sell lockup is expiring. He needs money so I bet he will take a loan against his stock, because if he sells a bunch there will be some very unhappy MAGA bag holders.
A cursory review of Trump's business history shows that unhappy bag holders is a feature, not an avoided consequence of his SOP. I think he would see them as suckers and be proud of himself for making a dime off of them. He has no loyalty to the MAGA base, only a desire for them to continue adulating him.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #925 on: September 11, 2024, 08:08:12 AM »

And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?  or to see if their candidate completely flubs it?   It's portrayed more like a sports team matchup than a policy discussion.
And don't get me started on the panel of "undecided voters" on CNN - really?  In September 2024 you still don't know who would be the best leader for the U.S.?

Modern political debates are NOT the place for detailed policy discussion. It’s really not the format, as real policy involves detailed facts and figures of demographics, budgets and legislative pathways.

I’ve seen two reasons for debates that I agree with. The first is focused on the smallish sliver of “undecided” and “waivering” voters, most of whom seem to be on a low information diet where they really aren’t aware of each candidates demeanor and positions on a briad array of issues.


The second reason for the debates is to generate enthusiasm / turnout (or conversely, to depress the opponents turnout). It’s supposed to be about the ra-ra moment.

Given recent levels of support I find it notable that Trump
“only” had 37% who said he “won”. That’s terrible IMO.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #926 on: September 11, 2024, 08:20:39 AM »
I don't disagree with you, nereo, I think it's my overall frustration with our society reducing critical policy debates to a verbal slugfest:  "you have one minute to discuss the issues along the U.S. southern border, Go!" 

I know we're not going to return to the days of the Lincoln-Douglas debates where people would stand outside for hours to listen to candidates, but geez, if an undecided voter is relying on these debates as the deciding factor, that's pretty sad. 

Now get off my lawn :-)

reeshau

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #927 on: September 11, 2024, 08:33:48 AM »
In absolute terms, I look at the 37% "win" number, vs. recent polling 45% number (fivethirtyeight) and I think "8%, who prefer him, know he screwed up."  In a tight race like this, that could move the needle.

I also think debates are good because they are contested, vs. a rally or website.  When a President is in office, things come up.  People are making decisions, and they don't care what you think, much less consult with you.  How do you approach Putin?  How do you get Netanyahu to see a viable peace plan?  Those aren't scenarios you have standing plans for:  it comes up, it's urgent, it's difficult, and you think on your feet.

On a small scale, a debate is like that.  The moderators ask questions.  (given that sometimes, you negotiate to specific topics)  Your opponent not only wants to win, but wants you to lose--will needle you, steer towards weaker points.  How do you do with that?  Biden was clearly adrift, and I don't want to face the next global emergency where that could happen--even if it was an off day, or he was jetlagged, or had a cold, or whatever.  Next one could be Xi Jinping looking for some more land, and he won't wait until you are at your best.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2024, 08:36:09 AM by reeshau »

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #928 on: September 11, 2024, 09:33:49 AM »
Official "spin" from  Fox News is Kamala won (but only because ABC cheated on her behalf).

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #929 on: September 11, 2024, 10:39:27 AM »
Official "spin" from  Fox News is Kamala won (but only because ABC cheated on her behalf).

To us a US-centric sports analogy, it’s like when two teams compete in American football, and one team commits a dozen flagrant fouls (face mask, unnecessary roughness, etc) while the other side has a standard few routine ones (offsides, illegal motion). Then after the game blaming the refs for an unfair game.

If you don’t want to be fact checked in real time on national be TV, don’t make flagrantly false statements, including the same ones you have been repeating at rallies for the past two weeks.

LennStar

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #930 on: September 11, 2024, 10:49:51 AM »
Unlimited speed on the Autobahn seems better than our gun situation in the USA, though I wouldn’t want unlimited speed here.  People don’t have the lane discipline for it here.

@LennStar - Out of curiosity, would you happen to know how many Autobahn deaths are in “innocent” vehicles?  This this I mean vehicles that are perhaps hit by the high-speed vehicles.

I have never seen this divided. Which is not that surprising - in many situations there is no 100% at fault person. It's either mixed or situation involved.
Example: (Not from autobahn) When I (lightly) rammed someone in the rear, it was because an idiot with a boat drove into the turn-left lane too early and I feared I would be skwered by his boat. So I looked to the left not the front.
At the same time the guy in front of me (first in the rights order) stopped to let someone in instead of just driving on.

Now, who is at fault? I personally blame the boat idiot, but per law I think it would be me (the most).

Quote
Yep. I'll never understand why neoliberal parties have to court the conservative/evangelical base instead of courting the soft-left, socially progressive base.
Lefts want the rich to pay a fair share for the costs of society. That is the opposite of what neoliberals want.

Quote
Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?  or to see if their candidate completely flubs it?   It's portrayed more like a sports team matchup than a policy discussion.
I was under the impression that was the goal. Americans alwas seem to make a sports competition out of everything. Just look at the Musk/Facebook guy boxing match. I would not be surprised if Trump wants to end the Ukraine war in 24h by challenging Putin to a bear riding contest.


Quote
When a President is in office, things come up.  People are making decisions, and they don't care what you think, much less consult with you.  How do you approach Putin?  How do you get Netanyahu to see a viable peace plan?  Those aren't scenarios you have standing plans for:  it comes up, it's urgent, it's difficult, and you think on your feet.
Sorry, but in a well functioning government, you HAVE standing plans, plural, for those things.
Of course most governments are not well-run or they would have a pandemic plan for a novel virus out of Wuhan, because that is what whas seen as the most likely source of a novel virus pandemic 10 years before Covid-19 came up. To quote Trump: I saw it on TV! (I mean I saw that Wuhan-szenario somewhere around 2010, with bats as most likely vector.)

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #931 on: September 11, 2024, 11:16:20 AM »

And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?  or to see if their candidate completely flubs it?   It's portrayed more like a sports team matchup than a policy discussion.
And don't get me started on the panel of "undecided voters" on CNN - really?  In September 2024 you still don't know who would be the best leader for the U.S.?

Modern political debates are NOT the place for detailed policy discussion. It’s really not the format, as real policy involves detailed facts and figures of demographics, budgets and legislative pathways.

I’ve seen two reasons for debates that I agree with. The first is focused on the smallish sliver of “undecided” and “waivering” voters, most of whom seem to be on a low information diet where they really aren’t aware of each candidates demeanor and positions on a briad array of issues.


The second reason for the debates is to generate enthusiasm / turnout (or conversely, to depress the opponents turnout). It’s supposed to be about the ra-ra moment.

Given recent levels of support I find it notable that Trump
“only” had 37% who said he “won”. That’s terrible IMO.
I will say this. The debate's format was 10,000% better and more watchable than the open-mic shouting and interruption competitions of the past several presidential elections. Those past debates looked more like the Jerry Springer show from the 90's than a formal debate like you'd see in college or even high school.

Trump changed certain things for the better. No only is it now normal for journalists to fact check, but debates now have mics that will cut off and moderators who will go after a candidate if they try to dodge a question. BRAVO! I say.

Was it unfair to Trump? It certainly disadvantaged his preferred style of interrupting, shouting slogans, and making up weird stories and conspiracy theories to draw attention away from his opponents' facts, reasoning, and civility.

The format change was like telling the pigeon it could no longer shit on the chessboard. It's only unfair if the chessboard is not for playing chess, and was actually for shitting on. But Trump still had a chance to be reasonable, bring facts, and articulate a message, so he was on an equal footing even if he failed to develop the talent needed to excel in the new format.

Hopefully the debate format changes are the first of a series of broader cultural changes where we no longer assume a laissez-faire approach will cause problems to work themselves out automatically. They won't work themselves out automatically, and a whole generation may be learning that there is a greater need than ever for referees, gatekeepers, curators, decorum, precedent, fact-checkers, real investigative journalists, laws, norms, regulations, and enforcers who are willing to keep things within the boundaries that served the United States so well over the decades.

If that's bad for chess-pigeons, then so it must be. Let's hope that real debates return to Congress too, and that the American people start expecting more from their political system, engaging more with policy issues than political tribalism, and generally expecting some semblance of order, dignity, and professionalism from those who they elect. As for the undecided people sitting on the sidelines of all this? Maybe they need to see more than yard-signs, social media posts, and tilted advertisements to make a decision? That's what debates are for.

cpa cat

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #932 on: September 11, 2024, 11:21:47 AM »
And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?  or to see if their candidate completely flubs it?   It's portrayed more like a sports team matchup than a policy discussion.
And don't get me started on the panel of "undecided voters" on CNN - really?  In September 2024 you still don't know who would be the best leader for the U.S.?

I don't think there are any true "undecided voters." I think there may be people who are undecided about whether or not they will bother to vote at all. About 35% of eligible voters did not vote in 2020.

No one who chose to vote for Clinton in 2016 or Biden in 2020 is suddenly "undecided" in 2024. Nothing about Trump is better now than then. So the only undecideds are young people (and immigrants) who have never had the chance to vote before; people who typically don't vote at all; and Trump voters who aren't sure if they want to vote for him a 2nd or 3rd time.

In that sense, the debate is valuable to Harris, because she may convince first time voters to engage with the system if they like her. She won't convince Trump voters to vote for her, but his performance may convince them to stay home. For Trump, he's mainly targeting those voters who aren't sure if they want to vote for him again - he got them once, and all he has to do is get them to turn up again - but he won't convince them on policy, so he's got to scare them about baby-killing, dog-eating, sex-changing Marxists. Neither one of them are going to win over people who typically don't vote - it's highly unlikely that those people watch debates.

As for CNN - I watched a video clip of their supposedly undecided voters and the first one they talked to was a lady who thought Trump "won" the debate and said the debate convinced her to vote for him... but also she was leaning toward voting for him before the debate, and she'd voted for him in 2020 and 2016. That's not an undecided voter. That's a Trump voter who is undecided about whether or not to get into her car and drive to the polls.

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #933 on: September 11, 2024, 12:17:35 PM »
The number one issue directly affecting my family is the continuation or repeal of the affordable care act. This law was a big factor in our ability to FIRE with confidence. I am happy with the ACA. Trump says it is a terrible law and says he has "concepts of a plan". That's just great, your majesty.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #934 on: September 11, 2024, 12:52:45 PM »
Biden can squash Trump, ScotUS, & the GOP regardless of whatever BS floats through the MSM.  Biden will suffer no consequences.  Freedom will conquer and dominate.  Screw Russiam, N Korea, China, Iran, etc. 


Gitmo is open for MAGA, TRump, the GOP< Leon Musk, & Thiel.  Democracy doesn't have to play fair to survive.  Fuck crypto too. 


Fuck Ron Scott & his BS trolling too. 


It's 4:20 somewhere!!  Dammit.




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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #935 on: September 11, 2024, 01:23:56 PM »
As per usual, Jon Stewart does an excellent analysis of the debate - https://youtu.be/KtHn59wqdBc?si=nZXAZAbU3SrJn9iz

My favorite point he makes comes toward then end where he highlights Trump's deplorable habit of dodging accountability, fully on display when answering the 'do you feel any responsibility for January 6th' question.  Trump blusters 'I just showed up, I just made a speech, it was all Nancy Pelosi's fault...'.  As Stewart points out, that like when his ship is going down and Trump is the first one in the lifeboat blustering 'I just showed up for a cruise' - No you complete @$$, you were the captain. 

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #936 on: September 11, 2024, 01:28:59 PM »
The number one issue directly affecting my family is the continuation or repeal of the affordable care act. This law was a big factor in our ability to FIRE with confidence. I am happy with the ACA. Trump says it is a terrible law and says he has "concepts of a plan". That's just great, your majesty.

Obamacare is a mediocre plan overall but, as Obama thought, a good first start. I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.

We shall see.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2024, 01:31:16 PM by Ron Scott »

dandarc

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #937 on: September 11, 2024, 01:38:16 PM »
The number one issue directly affecting my family is the continuation or repeal of the affordable care act. This law was a big factor in our ability to FIRE with confidence. I am happy with the ACA. Trump says it is a terrible law and says he has "concepts of a plan". That's just great, your majesty.

Obamacare is a mediocre plan overall but, as Obama thought, a good first start. I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.

We shall see.
And a lot of the flaws came from Republicans themselves. It is good. Single payer will be even better, but ACA is unquestionably a step in the right direction in terms of getting even more people decent health insurance.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #938 on: September 11, 2024, 01:58:05 PM »

Obamacare is a mediocre plan overall but, as Obama thought, a good first start. I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.


You are completely wrong about Biden having done nothing to strengthen the ACA (commonly called “Obamacare”) during his first two years when the Ds controlled both the House and Senate. Part of ARPA expanded overall PTC eligibioity, lowered the maximum premiums and lowered the average premiums overall. Biden signed it into law in his first year.

The following year, Biden signed the IRA, which did a whole bunch of things, but included a continuation of the Marketplace enhanced subsidies through 2025.

He also used an EA to extend the enrollment period for ACA under the Covid emergency.

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #939 on: September 11, 2024, 03:33:10 PM »
I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.

To Republicans (MAGA Republicans anyway), Obamacare is like the border.   They like to complain about it, but they are terrified of presenting a fix or an alternative, because then they can't use it an issue.  That's why 14 years later the Republicans have still not formulated a replacement.   They can't afford to.

sonofsven

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #940 on: September 11, 2024, 07:55:02 PM »
I've found that most people that complain about the ACA don't use it.

twinstudy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #941 on: September 11, 2024, 08:49:37 PM »
A lot of people in my social circles joked about the Trump assassination attempt. I don't think you're allowed to make those jokes in the U.S., right? But I feel like 70% of people would be thinking the same thing I am.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #942 on: September 11, 2024, 09:07:39 PM »
I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.
To Republicans (MAGA Republicans anyway), Obamacare is like the border.   They like to complain about it, but they are terrified of presenting a fix or an alternative, because then they can't use it an issue.  That's why 14 years later the Republicans have still not formulated a replacement.   They can't afford to.
There's a long list of things American politicians promise to fix, but then do not fix because the solution would be too politically painful.

Immigration - would cause inflation to go way up and entire industries to collapse from a lack of cheap labor.
National Debt - could only be reduced by raising taxes significantly
Cost of Healthcare - have you seen how many millions of people are employed in our maximally inefficient system? Look at all the healthcare stocks!
Poverty - could only be fixed with a generational investment in education and maternal/child healthcare that would not pay dividends for 20 years - too long after the next election
Gun Violence - gun control is not a hobby with a dedicated constituency defending it with tens of millions of dollars.
Environmental Degradation - any solution comes at the expense of short-term profits, and massive political donations to your opponent.
Cost of Homes - any solution would reduce the value of existing homeowner's equity.
Declining Civility and Discourse - the big social media companies have a stake in letting things continue to get worse.
Sprawl - the car and fuel companies have millions of dollars to defeat proposals for more compact cities
Rising Cost of Higher Education - bureaucratic bloat employs too many people, and executives with multi-million dollar salaries can bundle funds to defeat candidates who want to slim things down.


MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #943 on: September 12, 2024, 01:13:01 AM »
And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?
I think that was the CNN number, 63% to 37%, and had a qualification behind it: those polled leaned conservative.  The general population probably favored Harris more than Republicans did.

On Twitter a couple conservatives complained, one saying the debate was "rigged" the other said it was "fixed".  That's a pretty good indication Trump lost the debate.


twinstudy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #944 on: September 12, 2024, 01:38:23 AM »
And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?
I think that was the CNN number, 63% to 37%, and had a qualification behind it: those polled leaned conservative.  The general population probably favored Harris more than Republicans did.

On Twitter a couple conservatives complained, one saying the debate was "rigged" the other said it was "fixed".  That's a pretty good indication Trump lost the debate.

The population naturally is bifurcated on almost any measure, so a 63%/37% split is about as much of a landslide as you could ever hope for. Has any election ever produced such a lopsided popular vote? I doubt it. Not even the walk-ins.

You could probably put Hitler's corpse on stage and 30% of people would still say he performed better than Kamala.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #945 on: September 12, 2024, 05:25:24 AM »
I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against (Obamacare). Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.

To Republicans (MAGA Republicans anyway), Obamacare is like the border.   They like to complain about it, but they are terrified of presenting a fix or an alternative, because then they can't use it an issue.  That's why 14 years later the Republicans have still not formulated a replacement.   They can't afford to.

Over significant periods of time the liberal perspective will win on social issues because their policies are popular, hence SS, Medicare, Obamacare, etc. I interpret this politically as an inability to raise significant campaign contributions to fight against these programs as they become increasingly popular.

Similarly, the GOP essentially won the guns war and the fight has moved onto the fine print—like background checks for crazy and banning military assault equipment, etc. Dems typically start their arguments by declaring, like Harris and Walz do all the time, “I OWN guns. I’m a HUNTER.” That’s code for capitulation on the main issue, but hoping to raise money on the peripheral issues.

Immigration has traditionally been an issue neither party wanted to solve because they were both raising so much money on it. The GOP had their last shot to solve it during Trump’s first two years when they controlled both houses. And Biden had Dem control for his first 2 years too. So either party could certainly have had their way.

There are no heroes for us here, just corrupt politicians looking to make a buck on “contributions”. One wears a red hat, one wears a blue; stuffing their pockets, lying “We work for YOU.” LOL

I don’t think EVERY decision and issue is decided this way, but many are. In any event, if you disagree, you need to answer why each party fails to solve a problem their supporters are passionate about when they have the legislative power to do so.


partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #946 on: September 12, 2024, 06:49:50 AM »
I do not think the Republicans have the patience to continue fighting against it. Harris said she’d work to improve it last night. To do that the Dems will probably need the presidency and both houses. They had that following Biden’s win but did not do so.
To Republicans (MAGA Republicans anyway), Obamacare is like the border.   They like to complain about it, but they are terrified of presenting a fix or an alternative, because then they can't use it an issue.  That's why 14 years later the Republicans have still not formulated a replacement.   They can't afford to.
There's a long list of things American politicians promise to fix, but then do not fix because the solution would be too politically painful.

Immigration - would cause inflation to go way up and entire industries to collapse from a lack of cheap labor.
National Debt - could only be reduced by raising taxes significantly
Cost of Healthcare - have you seen how many millions of people are employed in our maximally inefficient system? Look at all the healthcare stocks!
Poverty - could only be fixed with a generational investment in education and maternal/child healthcare that would not pay dividends for 20 years - too long after the next election
Gun Violence - gun control is not a hobby with a dedicated constituency defending it with tens of millions of dollars.
Environmental Degradation - any solution comes at the expense of short-term profits, and massive political donations to your opponent.
Cost of Homes - any solution would reduce the value of existing homeowner's equity.
Declining Civility and Discourse - the big social media companies have a stake in letting things continue to get worse.
Sprawl - the car and fuel companies have millions of dollars to defeat proposals for more compact cities
Rising Cost of Higher Education - bureaucratic bloat employs too many people, and executives with multi-million dollar salaries can bundle funds to defeat candidates who want to slim things down.
A lot of those things could be fixed, IF big money was taken out of politics. In particular the cost of healthcare. Public transportation. Education.
I don't think fixing immigration = cutting immigration to 0. It means having an orderly legal process for people wanting to come into the country.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #947 on: September 12, 2024, 07:03:43 AM »

Immigration has traditionally been an issue neither party wanted to solve because they were both raising so much money on it. The GOP had their last shot to solve it during Trump’s first two years when they controlled both houses. And Biden had Dem control for his first 2 years too. So either party could certainly have had their way.


You keep brining up this idea that if a party controls the WH and both houses for 2 years and doesn't 'fix' a complex issue in that timeframe it's because they didn't want to.  This shows a complete lack of understanding of how our government actually works, and what it takes to pass legislation, particularly bills that add to our national deficit and/or have a funding mechanism attached.

At a very high level, any such bill must first be assigned to and then pass through the representative committee before being brought before the chamber for debate. In the House time is limited, but in the Senate there is no restrictions (hence, the filibuster).  Particularly relevant is that in the Senate you need 60 votes (3/5ths) to evoke cloture (end debate) before it can be called for a vote. Critically NO PARTY has controlled 60+ seats since the 1970s, and during the administrations Ron is referencing (Trump & Biden) the most either party held was 53 (the GOP in 2017-19).

The end result is that even with a slim majority one cannot run rough-shod over the other party, and for any bill to pass the administration must woo several votes from the other side.

Even when this occurs, the Senate and House almost always pass two slightly different bills because concessions made to acquire cross-aisle votes requires amendments.  This then requires the two different versions of the legislation to go through a process called reconciliation, where substantial alterations of either chamber's bill can force another series of debate, another vote, and another chance for it to be scuttled. This is where the strategy of using a "poisoned pill" is often employed effectively.  Minority members of one chamber will place an amendment on a piece of legislation in exchange for support, knowing that it will be anathema to certain, often more extreme members of the other chamber, virtually guaranteeing that support will wane for the final, reconciled bill.

This entire process can take multiple years to play out, by design. Large spending bills only make it through in under a year when there is broad bi-partisan support, and this is by design.

...and of course there's the fact that all House members must face re-election every 2 years, and there's always several dozen competitive races, which means these members are loathe to cast votes which will cost them support during the second half of their two year term.  This has a practical effect of limiting cross-aisle cooperation to a window of about 12-15 months.

tl;dr - blaming one party for not getting legislation passed in a single congressional term with a slim majority against unified opposition only demonstrates a lack of understanding of our legislative process and the power that the minority party holds in our democracy.

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #948 on: September 12, 2024, 07:05:19 AM »
And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?
I think that was the CNN number, 63% to 37%, and had a qualification behind it: those polled leaned conservative.  The general population probably favored Harris more than Republicans did.

On Twitter a couple conservatives complained, one saying the debate was "rigged" the other said it was "fixed".  That's a pretty good indication Trump lost the debate.

The population naturally is bifurcated on almost any measure, so a 63%/37% split is about as much of a landslide as you could ever hope for. Has any election ever produced such a lopsided popular vote? I doubt it. Not even the walk-ins.

You could probably put Hitler's corpse on stage and 30% of people would still say he performed better than Kamala.

Hitler's corpse 2024 - the same Republican message you've been voting for with a fresh new face and better debating skills!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #949 on: September 12, 2024, 08:12:43 AM »
And yet, in the polls taken immediately after the debate, 37% thought Trump had "won." 

Which makes me question the value of these debates - is everyone just watching to see if their candidate can score against the other candidate?
I think that was the CNN number, 63% to 37%, and had a qualification behind it: those polled leaned conservative.  The general population probably favored Harris more than Republicans did.

On Twitter a couple conservatives complained, one saying the debate was "rigged" the other said it was "fixed".  That's a pretty good indication Trump lost the debate.

The population naturally is bifurcated on almost any measure, so a 63%/37% split is about as much of a landslide as you could ever hope for. Has any election ever produced such a lopsided popular vote? I doubt it. Not even the walk-ins.

You could probably put Hitler's corpse on stage and 30% of people would still say he performed better than Kamala.

Hitler's corpse 2024 - the same Republican message you've been voting for with a fresh new face and better debating skills!
I'm reluctant to dismiss the 37% as perceiving things out of pure tribalism. Recall that many liberals thought Hillary Clinton "crushed" Trump in their 2016 debates.

Obviously not everyone was as impressed. I absolutely cringed at the time. It comes down to differences in expectations, or the kind of appeals different folks respond to.

You're probably a liberal if you appreciate precise language, citation of the sort of "facts" produced by governments or think tanks, logical coherence, and appeals to optimism.

You're probably a conservative if you appreciate parsimonious narratives that explain your dissatisfactions, citation of the sort of "facts" produced by social media influencers, rhetorical attacks, and appeals to fear.

The people judging synchronized diving at the Olympics have an agreement on what they are watching for: technical difficulty, synchronization, small splashes, etc. I DO NOT think Americans watching our form of presidential "debate" have that same consensus.

For everyone who thought Harris had a strong command of the facts and a coherent plan to make things better, there was someone else who thought Harris came across as insufficiently passionate and academically out of touch with regular people's concerns compared to Trump, with his more-easily-understood rhetoric and fear-based campfire stories. It comes down to what people want and expect out of a candidate. Do they want a high-IQ technocratic lawyer, or a relatable and predictable character actor who can channel their emotions and build trust through recognition of their hardships and worries.

This election is literally a contest between those two roles - the lawyer versus the thespian. Probably a third of the population is looking for a good set of trial-lawyer closing statements and another third is looking for the best actor. They have different scoring sheets, and therefore pick different winners.