Author Topic: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves  (Read 159905 times)

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #400 on: July 14, 2024, 05:51:34 PM »


So weird.  Almost like unrestricted access to firearms for everyone isn't a great idea.  :P

We do not have “unrestricted access “to firearms in the United States. That is not a fact.

There are quite a lot of restrictions. There are many laws on the books controlling firearm, how they are obtained, who can obtain them.

Perhaps yours is one of those opinions that this forum should not host. Perhaps it is gaslighting?

Or, wait—is this one of those sarcastic-but -not -sarcastic comments? It is confusing here, knowing what we are allowed to say.

From my perspective, it is shockingly easy for an adult to buy a firearm in this country, including AR-style rifles.
In my state I can walk into any hunting store and purchase a rifle on the spot with just a government ID and a credit card (or cash), plus filing out a federal form (4473). It’s less than what is needed to rent a car and less than picking up a prescription for a controlled substance prescribed by a doctor. It can be accomplished in about 5-10 minutes.

What meaningful restrictions do you see in place for the sale of firearms?  Yes, there is clearly a procedure in place, but it’s unclear to me how that qualifies as a restriction. Many will argue that the 2nd amendment actually prohibits infringement.

Just Joe

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #401 on: July 14, 2024, 06:18:05 PM »
Apparently in the past year or so, Virginia now requires even private sales to go through a background check.  This is news to me.  I honestly don't know how many people have paid attention to this, so I still consider most of what I wrote to still be reasonable valid.  Access to a gun is still probably quite easy through private sale from an owner that doesn't know the new law.

I was curious and checked a couple of websites for private sales in my state - not VA: "Gun owners can sell a firearm through a private transaction. There are no specific laws regulating private sales of firearms between two unlicensed individuals. However, there are criminal penalties for buyers and sellers if the firearm was sold to an ineligible person, selling a defaced firearm or selling a restricted firearm (explosive weapon, machine gun), which can result in different criminal charges including and up to a felony criminal charge."

Seems like a huge liability to anyone, especially anyone with any wealth like MMM members.

iris lily

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #402 on: July 14, 2024, 07:32:52 PM »


So weird.  Almost like unrestricted access to firearms for everyone isn't a great idea.  :P

We do not have “unrestricted access “to firearms in the United States. That is not a fact.

There are quite a lot of restrictions. There are many laws on the books controlling firearm, how they are obtained, who can obtain them.

Perhaps yours is one of those opinions that this forum should not host. Perhaps it is gaslighting?

Or, wait—is this one of those sarcastic-but -not -sarcastic comments? It is confusing here, knowing what we are allowed to say.

From my perspective, it is shockingly easy for an adult to buy a firearm in this country, including AR-style rifles.
In my state I can walk into any hunting store and purchase a rifle on the spot with just a government ID and a credit card (or cash), plus filing out a federal form (4473). It’s less than what is needed to rent a car and less than picking up a prescription for a controlled substance prescribed by a doctor. It can be accomplished in about 5-10 minutes.

What meaningful restrictions do you see in place for the sale of firearms?  Yes, there is clearly a procedure in place, but it’s unclear to me how that qualifies as a restriction. Many will argue that the 2nd amendment actually prohibits infringement.

Bolding mine.

I have no idea what “meaningful” means to you and I’m not interested in discussing the many details of that because  any discussion goes nowhere. I have also learned in gun discussions on other forums that it can become a fairly technical discussion going into the weeds quickly when it comes to  types of guns and their parts, and all of that is beyond my understanding or interest.

I challenged  Guitar Steve’s overly broad characterization of the gun legal climate in the U.S.because  it was false as he stated it.

But hey, you both may believe that there are no restrictions if that’s what you’d like to believe.

I think the volumes of legal controls expressed in local, state, and federal laws challenge that simplistic idea. Even the current President of the United States bragged about the new gun control law he signed.



« Last Edit: July 14, 2024, 11:19:17 PM by iris lily »

uniwelder

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #403 on: July 14, 2024, 08:06:11 PM »
Apparently in the past year or so, Virginia now requires even private sales to go through a background check.  This is news to me.  I honestly don't know how many people have paid attention to this, so I still consider most of what I wrote to still be reasonable valid.  Access to a gun is still probably quite easy through private sale from an owner that doesn't know the new law.

I was curious and checked a couple of websites for private sales in my state - not VA: "Gun owners can sell a firearm through a private transaction. There are no specific laws regulating private sales of firearms between two unlicensed individuals. However, there are criminal penalties for buyers and sellers if the firearm was sold to an ineligible person, selling a defaced firearm or selling a restricted firearm (explosive weapon, machine gun), which can result in different criminal charges including and up to a felony criminal charge."

Seems like a huge liability to anyone, especially anyone with any wealth like MMM members.

I suppose every state is different, but where I am, you couldn’t have prior knowledge that you were selling to someone that legally shouldn’t own a gun. Therefore, just don’t ask any questions. This would have been before the new law.

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #404 on: July 15, 2024, 02:54:58 AM »
What meaningful restrictions do you see in place for the sale of firearms?  Yes, there is clearly a procedure in place, but it’s unclear to me how that qualifies as a restriction. Many will argue that the 2nd amendment actually prohibits infringement.

Bolding mine.

I have no idea what “meaningful” means to you and I’m not interested in discussing the many details of that because  any discussion goes nowhere. I have also learned in gun discussions on other forums that it can become a fairly technical discussion
[/quote]

My 2 €cents:
That is because pro-gun people don't want to discuss, they only want to be right. As can be seen in this example.
As I am sure everyone in the US is aware (I am as a German after all), there are different rules in different US states. Some are lax, some are a lot more lax compared to other countries.

Whatever, the point being there is a sizable minority (or even majority) of states where there is no practical restriction as seen in the post above.
In some states there are actually restrictions.
The "fairly technical discussion" that you complain about here is you being overy hung up about the "no" in no restrictions.
There are states that have restrictions and states that have none (Showing an ID is not a restriction, it's pure common sense when selling something that is a bit expensive to note down contact info, not to mention a freaking gun. I would certainly want to know who I sold the gun to when police knocks on my door saying someone was killed with it!!).

Since both types of states are in the US, both POVs that there are restirctions in the US and that there are not restrictions in the US can be seen as true. However we can safely assume that practically anyone who plans to do a crime with the gun will go to a state where there are no restrictions. Esecially since that makes it cheaper too.
"There are no restrictions" is therefore a description that might be scientifically incorrect but colloquially understood as being correct, since it effectivly is. And if everyone tried to be scienfically correct all the time, no communication would get done. It's the wonder of language that those generalizations and slight inconsistancies can still convey the correct thing - if people want it. 

iris lily

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #405 on: July 15, 2024, 08:49:25 AM »
What meaningful restrictions do you see in place for the sale of firearms?  Yes, there is clearly a procedure in place, but it’s unclear to me how that qualifies as a restriction. Many will argue that the 2nd amendment actually prohibits infringement.

Bolding mine.

I have no idea what “meaningful” means to you and I’m not interested in discussing the many details of that because  any discussion goes nowhere. I have also learned in gun discussions on other forums that it can become a fairly technical discussion

My 2 €cents:
That is because pro-gun people don't want to discuss, they only want to be right. As can be seen in this example.
As I am sure everyone in the US is aware (I am as a German after all), there are different rules in different US states. Some are lax, some are a lot more lax compared to other countries.

Whatever, the point being there is a sizable minority (or even majority) of states where there is no practical restriction as seen in the post above.
In some states there are actually restrictions.
The "fairly technical discussion" that you complain about here is you being overy hung up about the "no" in no restrictions.
There are states that have restrictions and states that have none (Showing an ID is not a restriction, it's pure common sense when selling something that is a bit expensive to note down contact info, not to mention a freaking gun. I would certainly want to know who I sold the gun to when police knocks on my door saying someone was killed with it!!).

Since both types of states are in the US, both POVs that there are restirctions in the US and that there are not restrictions in the US can be seen as true. However we can safely assume that practically anyone who plans to do a crime with the gun will go to a state where there are no restrictions. Esecially since that makes it cheaper too.
"There are no restrictions" is therefore a description that might be scientifically incorrect but colloquially understood as being correct, since it effectivly is. And if everyone tried to be scienfically correct all the time, no communication would get done. It's the wonder of language that those generalizations and slight inconsistancies can still convey the correct thing - if people want it.
[/quote]




I pretty much agree with everything you said.I hammered on the “scientific” sentiment expressed because that is the direction this thread went earlier. The dissection of sarcasm was befuddling to me and frankly, silly.

However, I tire of overstated, generalized “facts” and opinions, especially when they are attributed to me.

See, you did it saying I “only want to be right.” Ummm, no. There IS no one single right answer about gun control, it is a constant tension between individual freedom to own a gun and societal safety. There are continuing compromises in policy and legislation. You do not have The Answer. Neither do I. It’s fine to talk about it and propose changes and etc. and perhaps move policy in one direction, but if you think the answer is simple and you could change our gun culture immediately, I don’t have much respect for your answer.

One tiny detail for instance can expose the weeds of these debates: you say an ID in buying a gun isn’t much of a restriction. I agree! So, what kind of ID should be required? A photo ID? A government issued ID? I mean, you do know there volumes of legalities on this issue in just the realm of voting, right? “Showing an ID” isn’t as simple as you make it and some folks find certain kinds of ID requirements to be onerous.

I agree that anyone who really wants to get a gun MIGHT legally get around restrictions, just like regular life where people get around restrictions on the daily. Theoretically I don’t mind more legal restrictions on buying guns but I know that they do little, and they make it harder for reasonable people who wish to follow the law to own guns.

For decades I lived in the urban core of a zip code that has among the  highest murder rates in the world ( outside of war zones) and gun play, gun violence, gun presence was rife. My husband served on grand jury for 6 months and 50% of their cases were gun cases. So, the legal system caught up these bad nicks but they were out on the street not long after.  It is a constant game of catch and release. Apply pressure of the law. Carry out the Justice system.

Finally, I don’t own a gun, not interested in that responsibility and my life style doesn’t require it.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2024, 08:56:37 AM by iris lily »

iris lily

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #406 on: July 15, 2024, 08:52:41 AM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typical old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2024, 09:32:47 AM by iris lily »

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #407 on: July 15, 2024, 09:32:37 AM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

iris lily

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #408 on: July 15, 2024, 09:33:40 AM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Well, I assume the pulling of these ads is only temporary. It’s a gesture. They will fire up those attack ads in a bit.

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #409 on: July 15, 2024, 09:36:07 AM »
... about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?)

what else would we call it?
I mean, absent some great revelation, the facts seem to be that someone fired bullets at a former POTUS while he was campaigning, which injured but did not kill him.
Attempted assassination seems like an apt description of the events.

Phenix

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #410 on: July 15, 2024, 09:40:41 AM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

JLee

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #411 on: July 15, 2024, 09:46:45 AM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Phenix

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #412 on: July 15, 2024, 03:30:17 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #413 on: July 15, 2024, 04:01:07 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #414 on: July 15, 2024, 04:05:55 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

If you are struggling to get off your ass when something like Project 2025 is in the works, I don’t know what to say to you. (And yeah, that is indeed the problem with a ton of people. Idk if it’s low information, apathy, or what, but it ain't great.)

nereo

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #415 on: July 15, 2024, 04:06:16 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

I’ve heard similar sentiments about DJT from a whole bunch of people. Lifetime conservative-leaning, majority GOP voting, well informed. But each time they see a news story about Trump they prefer to change subjects and wish they had a different choice between those offered. So Much so they just want to sit this one out.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #416 on: July 15, 2024, 04:29:04 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

I’ve heard similar sentiments about DJT from a whole bunch of people. Lifetime conservative-leaning, majority GOP voting, well informed. But each time they see a news story about Trump they prefer to change subjects and wish they had a different choice between those offered. So Much so they just want to sit this one out.

Yes me too. Surprisingly so in the past several months. And JD is cut from the same cloth so.

Seems like the real enemies of functioning democracy in America are the Dems and the GOP. Can’t stand either of them anymore…

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #417 on: July 15, 2024, 04:40:30 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

What would it take to get you to vote for Biden?

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #418 on: July 15, 2024, 04:52:18 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

What would it take to get you to vote for Biden?

I want someone sharp and with it. Is that really too much to ask for. It’s the president for Christ’s sake.

Someone who doesn’t do interviews like this (today): https://youtu.be/pUO_zrPYocE?feature=shared

Wolfpack Mustachian

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #419 on: July 15, 2024, 05:06:43 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

What would it take to get you to vote for Biden?

I want someone sharp and with it. Is that really too much to ask for. It’s the president for Christ’s sake.

Someone who doesn’t do interviews like this (today): https://youtu.be/pUO_zrPYocE?feature=shared

Right. I don't disagree. Biden looks terrible. Just curious what it would take to get you to vote for him if anything.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #420 on: July 15, 2024, 05:16:45 PM »
Instead of worrying about how he looks and sounds, look at his achievements and his staff.  They are the team we're depending on. 






Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #421 on: July 15, 2024, 06:03:43 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

What would it take to get you to vote for Biden?

I want someone sharp and with it. Is that really too much to ask for. It’s the president for Christ’s sake.

Someone who doesn’t do interviews like this (today): https://youtu.be/pUO_zrPYocE?feature=shared

Right. I don't disagree. Biden looks terrible. Just curious what it would take to get you to vote for him if anything.

I honestly don't know. I’m still in the denial stage.

Instead of worrying about how he looks and sounds, look at his achievements and his staff.  They are the team we're depending on.

Again, the issue is whether he can beat Trump. Im pretty sure if Turmp behaves even partially sane, Biden won’t motivate enough Ds to putt this off.

It’s not like Trump didn’t beat Hillary. You can’t put a dry turd on the ticket that repeats “I’m not Trump!” every day and expect a big win.

Does my logic seem strange to you?

PKFFW

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #422 on: July 15, 2024, 06:09:34 PM »
I actually find it rather strange that people are suddenly placing so much emphasis on Biden's seeming senility/age related problems.

Think about it logically for a second or two.

Do you think he suddenly became senile in the last few weeks? Do you think over the last four years he's been fit as a fiddle and sharp as tack and then mysteriously caught some sort of dementia disease days before the debate?

Over the last four years Biden and his team have been running the country. From all evidence, they've been doing an ok job on the whole. Admittedly not great but probably about as good a job as most other single terms. And by any measure a shite tonne better than the cluster fuck of an administration the four years before.

So, if they've been doing that for the last four years and (assuming) you were generally happy with it, what has actually changed now?

The only thing that has changed is your perception. You think you have more information that is actually relevant, but do you?

If you really want to "sit this one out" and risk the implementation of Project 2025, then, sorry to sound harsh, you get what you deserve.

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #423 on: July 15, 2024, 06:59:05 PM »
Now, back to President Biden…

He did a nice job speaking to the country about the Donald Trump attempted assassination (are we calling it that here?) President Biden’s words were good. His delivery was typically old frail man slurring his words. Not a great performance, just mediocre.

And it is nice that his campaign pulled tv attack ads on Trump for the time being. A nice gesture.

I think it was a stupid gesture. Just because someone gets shot doesn't mean they're a great person now. They should be running ads and doing everything they can to win.

Which is exactly what they're doing! To you, a decided voter, it seems stupid. But, to an undecided voter, it might be seen as poor taste to attack a man that was as close to it gets to having his brains splattered across a stage. Open up your perspective here. It's not like they're releasing ads praising Trump.

If any undecided voters had taste, they'd already be turned off by the GOP's antics of recent years.

Pretty safe to assume any undecided voter at this point is also a low information voter.

The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

What would it take to get you to vote for Biden?

I want someone sharp and with it. Is that really too much to ask for. It’s the president for Christ’s sake.

Someone who doesn’t do interviews like this (today): https://youtu.be/pUO_zrPYocE?feature=shared

Right. I don't disagree. Biden looks terrible. Just curious what it would take to get you to vote for him if anything.

I honestly don't know. I’m still in the denial stage.

Instead of worrying about how he looks and sounds, look at his achievements and his staff.  They are the team we're depending on.

Again, the issue is whether he can beat Trump. Im pretty sure if Turmp behaves even partially sane, Biden won’t motivate enough Ds to putt this off.

It’s not like Trump didn’t beat Hillary. You can’t put a dry turd on the ticket that repeats “I’m not Trump!” every day and expect a big win.

Does my logic seem strange to you?
Given Biden's age, it was really a disservice to the country for the Democrats to stand by the notion that you don't primary the incumbant. I get why that's so in ordinary circumstances but the age of both candidates alone make this not the case this election cycle. I'm disappointed that dogma beat out common sense with so much on the line.

Prior to Regan, no President was older than 70 when they LEFT office!
« Last Edit: July 15, 2024, 07:04:57 PM by Mr. Green »

GuitarStv

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #424 on: July 15, 2024, 07:11:20 PM »
The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

If you are struggling to get off your ass when something like Project 2025 is in the works, I don’t know what to say to you. (And yeah, that is indeed the problem with a ton of people. Idk if it’s low information, apathy, or what, but it ain't great.)

Personally, I find it much easier to vote for something I believe in.  Voting something you don't think is a great option simply because the other guy is ridiculously terrible makes voting much more of a struggle.  Don't you feel the same?

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #425 on: July 15, 2024, 07:18:57 PM »
The election is not about changing the minds of undecided voters. It’s about getting the mass of those who are in or lean your way off their asses and voting.

I have voted 90% D for decades and never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And I have all the information the Ds can throw at this thing.

But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

“So look…anyway…” If someone like me will be struggling to get off his ass to vote, the Ds are probably dead in the water.

If you are struggling to get off your ass when something like Project 2025 is in the works, I don’t know what to say to you. (And yeah, that is indeed the problem with a ton of people. Idk if it’s low information, apathy, or what, but it ain't great.)

Personally, I find it much easier to vote for something I believe in.  Voting something you don't think is a great option simply because the other guy is ridiculously terrible makes voting much more of a struggle.  Don't you feel the same?



When one alternative is a conscious path to fascism, I find it pretty easy to vote for the other side.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #426 on: July 15, 2024, 09:05:17 PM »
When one alternative is a conscious path to fascism, I find it pretty easy to vote for the other side.

Yes, thanks to the duopoly of conniving Ds and Rs who have stolen our country we are forced to choose between a low-life and a hapless dotard—“the best” they have to offer America.

Yet we act as if there’s nothing we can do but continue to accept their beating and be thankful for it because, as we’re instructed: This is called democracy.

Putin and She are laughing so hard they can’t breathe.

——

Meanwhile, Alice in Wonderland is running the RNC convention tonight. The entire GOP is being made to sit, listen, and clap to Sean O’Brien of the Teamsters deliver a withering attack on the selfish, unpatriotic businesses and corporations in America that would fit in perfectly at a progressive liberal symposium or in some throw-back documentary about the American Communist Party.

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #427 on: July 15, 2024, 09:09:44 PM »
When one alternative is a conscious path to fascism, I find it pretty easy to vote for the other side.

Yes, thanks to the duopoly of conniving Ds and Rs who have stolen our country we are forced to choose between a low-life and a hapless dotard—“the best” they have to offer America.

Yet we act as if there’s nothing we can do but continue to accept their beating and be thankful for it because, as we’re instructed: This is called democracy.

Putin and She are laughing so hard they can’t breathe.

——

Meanwhile, Alice in Wonderland is running the RNC convention tonight. The entire GOP is being made to sit, listen, and clap to Sean O’Brien of the Teamsters deliver a withering attack on the selfish, unpatriotic businesses and corporations in America that would fit in perfectly at a progressive liberal symposium or in some throw-back documentary about the American Communist Party.

Yep. And yet, we must choose. Because one of them is who will be running this country.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #428 on: July 15, 2024, 09:21:15 PM »
I wish everyone here would stop dumping on Biden as if he’s a horrible alternative foisted on the world by some corrupt system! The more that rhetoric gets tossed around, the more it gets taken as a truism by people who otherwise haven’t given the matter much thought, or by people who are susceptible to peer pressure, groupthink, or think it’s cool to be cynical. I for one happen to like him a lot and will be very happy to vote for him an again, and I know there are a lot of us out here.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #429 on: July 15, 2024, 09:44:26 PM »
I wish everyone here would stop dumping on Biden as if he’s a horrible alternative foisted on the world by some corrupt system!

You are not going to get your wish and, if things continue as they are now, he is certainly going to lose to Trump—just like Hillary did.

I hope the Dems are proud of themselves. They have a limited window to change this and they’re blowing it!

We are watching a horror story in slow motion.

Your old road is rapidly aging. So get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand. For the times they are a’changing.

Just Joe

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #430 on: July 15, 2024, 09:55:04 PM »
But I can tell you I have zero motivation for Biden. He’s been on TV half a dozen times since the debate and whenever he’s asked unscripted questions he’s majorly embarrassing…trying to cover up a senior moment with reasoning that doesn’t work and dramatic facial expressions. This is great grandpa people.

Biden will be a better president while taking a nap than Trump on Trump's best day. ;)

Much of that is because Biden has a better team than Trump did last time. And better than Trump will likely have this time if he somehow gets elected.

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #431 on: July 16, 2024, 06:19:20 AM »
I don't agree that Biden will lose. And the more this assassination attempt becomes talked about as a conservative shooter and a failure of law enforcement to engage him, any advantage Trump got from it is going to vanish. The election is still four months away. People will have moved on.

I think Biden's team has been great. They have accomplished some good stuff, despite the partisan nature of Congress. I also think Project 2025 is gaining visibility and as people realize what that is it will swing votes. I don't want my daughter growing up in The Handmaid's Tale.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #432 on: July 16, 2024, 06:20:54 AM »
Am I happy about the ticket choices on the top ballot? No. But for one Biden (or his admin) has been quietly effective in multiple areas. I work at the VA where he has enacted the PACT act, the largest expansion of health coverage for vets in ages. Gotten homeless vets off the streets. Strengthened the caregiver support program, which does things like pay family members so vets can stay in the home, and provide respite care. In contrast Trump tried to privatize the VA.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2024, 06:31:01 AM by partgypsy »

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #433 on: July 16, 2024, 06:27:13 AM »
Reminder that JD Vance has said he would not have certified the election if he had been VP on Jan. 6. So, you have been given a glimpse into your future if Trump becomes president and lives the entire four years. They are not planning to cede power at the end of it.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #434 on: July 16, 2024, 06:30:02 AM »
The biggest thing is, whoever is the next president is going to choose the next supreme Court justices. I am voting so sanity in the courts is restored. This didn't happen overnight and it's not going to take a short time to fix. If we want to save this democracy, everyone needs to care and provide continuous pressure that this government is by the people and for the people. Otherwise the next step is this country (it's forests, waters, land, schools) are going to be sold or destroyed to the person with the biggest bribes. While the rest of us are too busy just trying to survive and being distracted and divided with culture wars. This is not about policy differences anymore.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2024, 06:32:25 AM by partgypsy »

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #435 on: July 16, 2024, 06:32:16 AM »
I ran a poll of who won the first Presidential debate, Biden or Trump.  Forum users voted about 79.3% Trump and 20.7% Biden.  Maybe it helps to see this yourself:
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/poll-presidential-debate/

Biden lost that debate.  Then he struggled during the Stephanopoulos interview, and then at a NATO press conference Q&A.  This isn't an occasional gaffe, this is Biden struggling to think.  Over the next 4 months, the press will focus on his cognitive abilities.  He can't just stick with teleprompters like he did at the State of the Union, and without teleprompters he will show his decline again.  Is this the strongest Democrat to run against Trump?

Most of Biden's support is actually "never Trump" voters.  When you see someone talk of voting for a sleeping Biden (above), or a cardboard cutout of Biden (seen elsewhere), those people want anyone but Trump.  Swapping out Biden for Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, or Buttigieg won't lose these voters - they will still vote against Trump.  But it removes the issue of cognitive decline.  Against Trump, polling shows Biden is weaker than everyone else on that list.  That could also sway people who hate the Biden-Trump rematch, and want to vote for someone else.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #436 on: July 16, 2024, 06:36:17 AM »
I agree that the ticket would be stronger if Biden steps down. But but not voting for Biden is like being on the Titanic and declining a tugboats help because you want a newer model. Regardless, the most important thing is for people to vote, even if it's for the down ballot candidates. 
« Last Edit: July 16, 2024, 06:54:32 AM by partgypsy »

GuitarStv

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #437 on: July 16, 2024, 07:15:18 AM »
I agree that the ticket would be stronger if Biden steps down.

Then if you're interested in not having another Trump presidency you should be pushing really, really, really hard for this to happen.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #438 on: July 16, 2024, 07:17:31 AM »
Endless complaining about this is pointless. The situation is what it is. What are YOU doing to help?

And there is this:
https://youtu.be/0yoPnWPduHo?si=MmZ7bWnal_pp6IBx

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #439 on: July 16, 2024, 07:19:55 AM »
I agree that the ticket would be stronger if Biden steps down.

Then if you're interested in not having another Trump presidency you should be pushing really, really, really hard for this to happen.

If you listen to Allan Lichtman (see my previous post), my edit applies.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #440 on: July 16, 2024, 07:46:51 AM »
I agree that the ticket would be stronger if Biden steps down.

Then if you're interested in not having another Trump presidency you should be pushing really, really, really hard for this to happen.

If you listen to Allan Lichtman (see my previous post), my edit applies.




Nobody seems to remember the butt-hurt Burnie Bros.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #441 on: July 16, 2024, 07:57:17 AM »

RetiredAt63

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #442 on: July 16, 2024, 10:05:46 AM »
Given Republican performance at all levels, and the weird* participation by states in a federal election,  why is everyone so focused on Trump? A Democratic president is hamstrung by a Republican House/Senate. State goverors can mess up things. They are already doing it with gerrymandering and voter id. How many married women will be denied their vote because their birth certificate doesn't match their married ID?

Not that people shouldn't be concerned about Trump. And his choice for VP.  But they are the tip of the iceberg.

Signed
*Your neighbour in the apartment above the crack house


wenchsenior

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #443 on: July 16, 2024, 11:24:25 AM »
I wish everyone here would stop dumping on Biden as if he’s a horrible alternative foisted on the world by some corrupt system!

You are not going to get your wish and, if things continue as they are now, he is certainly going to lose to Trump—just like Hillary did.

I hope the Dems are proud of themselves. They have a limited window to change this and they’re blowing it!

We are watching a horror story in slow motion.

Your old road is rapidly aging. So get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand. For the times they are a’changing.

This, exactly. I'm a big fan of Biden and on a number of topics that I care about, esp climate change, he and his team have been the best and most consequential presidency of my lifetime. He is clearly aging out of competence (my mother is the same age and watching her go from mild occasional absentmindedness to notable cognitive decline...not dementia, just age related decline...in just the past year, it's apparent how once the slide starts, it can proceed notably in a short time). I'm a fan of Biden, but he is just too old.

But more importantly, he's going to lose to Trump, and there is some polling evidence starting to indicate that he will drag down the house and senate races as well (Dems are not  going to win the Senate, but there is a chance they could get the House if the ticket is strong).

So if Biden pulls an RBG, he will 1) functionally destroy his own long and excellent public service legacy and 2) put Trump and potentially both branches of congress in control of the GOP.

He needs to get out ASAP.

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #444 on: July 16, 2024, 11:37:22 AM »
I wish everyone here would stop dumping on Biden as if he’s a horrible alternative foisted on the world by some corrupt system!

You are not going to get your wish and, if things continue as they are now, he is certainly going to lose to Trump—just like Hillary did.

I hope the Dems are proud of themselves. They have a limited window to change this and they’re blowing it!

We are watching a horror story in slow motion.

Your old road is rapidly aging. So get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand. For the times they are a’changing.

This, exactly. I'm a big fan of Biden and on a number of topics that I care about, esp climate change, he and his team have been the best and most consequential presidency of my lifetime. He is clearly aging out of competence (my mother is the same age and watching her go from mild occasional absentmindedness to notable cognitive decline...not dementia, just age related decline...in just the past year, it's apparent how once the slide starts, it can proceed notably in a short time). I'm a fan of Biden, but he is just too old.

But more importantly, he's going to lose to Trump, and there is some polling evidence starting to indicate that he will drag down the house and senate races as well (Dems are not  going to win the Senate, but there is a chance they could get the House if the ticket is strong).

So if Biden pulls an RBG, he will 1) functionally destroy his own long and excellent public service legacy and 2) put Trump and potentially both branches of congress in control of the GOP.

He needs to get out ASAP.

At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #445 on: July 16, 2024, 12:03:09 PM »
Though Kamala is not exciting at all, she has been part of this admin for the past 3/12 years, and she is next in line. Their cabinet and staff are competent. Democrats SUCK at self promotion. But it has been an effective administration.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/19/1232447088/historians-presidents-survey-trump-last-biden-14th

wenchsenior

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #446 on: July 16, 2024, 12:16:19 PM »
I wish everyone here would stop dumping on Biden as if he’s a horrible alternative foisted on the world by some corrupt system!

You are not going to get your wish and, if things continue as they are now, he is certainly going to lose to Trump—just like Hillary did.

I hope the Dems are proud of themselves. They have a limited window to change this and they’re blowing it!

We are watching a horror story in slow motion.

Your old road is rapidly aging. So get out of the new one if you can’t lend a hand. For the times they are a’changing.

This, exactly. I'm a big fan of Biden and on a number of topics that I care about, esp climate change, he and his team have been the best and most consequential presidency of my lifetime. He is clearly aging out of competence (my mother is the same age and watching her go from mild occasional absentmindedness to notable cognitive decline...not dementia, just age related decline...in just the past year, it's apparent how once the slide starts, it can proceed notably in a short time). I'm a fan of Biden, but he is just too old.

But more importantly, he's going to lose to Trump, and there is some polling evidence starting to indicate that he will drag down the house and senate races as well (Dems are not  going to win the Senate, but there is a chance they could get the House if the ticket is strong).

So if Biden pulls an RBG, he will 1) functionally destroy his own long and excellent public service legacy and 2) put Trump and potentially both branches of congress in control of the GOP.

He needs to get out ASAP.

At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.

Absolutely not too late, not up through the convention. The parties do have established mechanisms to deal with a change in candidate (or no clear candidate) at the convention. They haven't needed to exercise them for a long time but they have done so before and could now. But it appears the party doesn't have the guts to do it.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #447 on: July 16, 2024, 12:39:58 PM »
I would prefer a younger more dynamic candidate. But no one is asking me.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #448 on: July 16, 2024, 01:02:37 PM »
At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.
IDK. A late switch would be a rational gamble (for the party and its supporters) if a loss appeared likely. Better to risk the infighting, donor confusion, and name recognition risk than to coast into a loss. No time like the present to fix a mistake.

So the question is whether a loss is likely. To evaluate this risk we can simply ask what the Biden vs. Trump polls looked like in July 2020, when Biden won, versus today. According to FiveThirtyEight, five national polls were released on 7/15/2020 and they showed Biden with a 8-15% lead. Biden would go on to win with a mere 51.3% of the vote in an election with record high turnout.

This year, Trump has maintained a lead which has expanded to about 2%. So he's doing between ten and seventeen percent better than he was at this stage 4 years ago. According to RealClearPolitics, the average gambling odds of a Trump victory are now at 66.8%.

I'd say a Biden loss is "likely" and so the Dems might as well attempt to shake things up with a new candidate, and more importantly a new message.

Fireball

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #449 on: July 16, 2024, 02:14:35 PM »
At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.
IDK. A late switch would be a rational gamble (for the party and its supporters) if a loss appeared likely. Better to risk the infighting, donor confusion, and name recognition risk than to coast into a loss. No time like the present to fix a mistake.

So the question is whether a loss is likely. To evaluate this risk we can simply ask what the Biden vs. Trump polls looked like in July 2020, when Biden won, versus today. According to FiveThirtyEight, five national polls were released on 7/15/2020 and they showed Biden with a 8-15% lead. Biden would go on to win with a mere 51.3% of the vote in an election with record high turnout.

This year, Trump has maintained a lead which has expanded to about 2%. So he's doing between ten and seventeen percent better than he was at this stage 4 years ago. According to RealClearPolitics, the average gambling odds of a Trump victory are now at 66.8%.

I'd say a Biden loss is "likely" and so the Dems might as well attempt to shake things up with a new candidate, and more importantly a new message.

Kennedy at 9% is a wild card. If he drops out it could shake things up one way or the other. However, as it stands with the electoral college being heavily tilted in the GOP's favor, this one is in the books as a Trump win.