Author Topic: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves  (Read 159985 times)

desertadapted

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #450 on: July 16, 2024, 02:17:45 PM »
I’m a lifelong democrat and have always voted that way (with one exception for mayor).  While I’m likely going to vote for Biden in my swing State, I no longer do so from the perspective that Trump represents an existential threat to democracy.  In that regard, by sticking with Biden, I have to conclude that party leaders don’t take the risk of what Trump will do to the country all that seriously.  If party leaders aren’t worried, why should I be?  I know that the campaign arm is trotting out the Project 2025 thing, but it increasingly seems like alarmist window dressing to me.  I say this because if I was a Senator or Governor, and was convinced that Biden was going to tank the election (which I do), and was convinced that Trump would turn us into Hungary, I hope I’d be saying something on the biggest platform I could find.  And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be much of a leader.  Hence my conclusion they don’t think Trump will be that much of a threat to democracy.  If I’m wrong and they’re really worried about Trump and democracy, why would I support that kind of feckless cowardice their silence represents?   

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #451 on: July 16, 2024, 03:14:06 PM »
I’m a lifelong democrat and have always voted that way (with one exception for mayor).  While I’m likely going to vote for Biden in my swing State, I no longer do so from the perspective that Trump represents an existential threat to democracy.  In that regard, by sticking with Biden, I have to conclude that party leaders don’t take the risk of what Trump will do to the country all that seriously.  If party leaders aren’t worried, why should I be?  I know that the campaign arm is trotting out the Project 2025 thing, but it increasingly seems like alarmist window dressing to me.  I say this because if I was a Senator or Governor, and was convinced that Biden was going to tank the election (which I do), and was convinced that Trump would turn us into Hungary, I hope I’d be saying something on the biggest platform I could find.  And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be much of a leader.  Hence my conclusion they don’t think Trump will be that much of a threat to democracy.  If I’m wrong and they’re really worried about Trump and democracy, why would I support that kind of feckless cowardice their silence represents?

I hope you’re right because Joe is certainly not up to this. Maybe the Rs and Ds have simply cranked up their hate machines a bit too much. Im assuming we’ll find out the hard way as Joe makes Hillary look like a master strategist/communicator LOL.

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #452 on: July 16, 2024, 04:40:31 PM »
Post-shooting polling so far indicates that Trump has received no boost from the assassination attempt.

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #453 on: July 16, 2024, 05:33:25 PM »
Post-shooting polling so far indicates that Trump has received no boost from the assassination attempt.

If  you could go back to before the 2016 election cycle, about 20% of people in my estimate are Red no mater what while 25% are Blue no matter who.  This doesn't translate into an advantage for the Democrats because the Red people are homogeneously distributed (or more so) while the hard core Dems are concentrated in urban environments.  Also, because the Red 20 are more determined to vote than the Blue 25.

That leaves with about 55% who decide the elections.  I think a material portion of those made their mind up (some for red some for blue) based on what happened with COVID and haven't budged since.  Another portion maybe up their mind on Jan 6th (again, it goes both ways).  More decided when inflation took hold.  Even more made up their mind when Roe/Wade flipped.  The number of people who were left undecided or persuadable by the time of the debate was trivial and composed entirely of extremely low information voters.  If you were still undecided after everything that has happened since 2016, would a ear "Boe-Boe" that didn't even require a band-aid while golfing move the needle for you? And which way? 

I'm not surprised the polls aren't budging.  I no exactly ZERO people who changed their position in the last 9 months or so.  The bullet didn't do it and neither did the debate.  I expect a squeaker whether Biden is on top of ticket or not. 

The Dems haven't developed anyone who is a slam dunk against Trumpism.  Which is weird because their biggest selling point is they aren't like him and a large portion of the swing voters in their camp are against Trump rather than Pro-Joe.  Maybe they don't perceive any additional anti-Trump voters are on the fence enough that they are worth pursuing.

Omy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #454 on: July 16, 2024, 06:54:59 PM »
I’m a lifelong democrat and have always voted that way (with one exception for mayor).  While I’m likely going to vote for Biden in my swing State, I no longer do so from the perspective that Trump represents an existential threat to democracy.  In that regard, by sticking with Biden, I have to conclude that party leaders don’t take the risk of what Trump will do to the country all that seriously.  If party leaders aren’t worried, why should I be?  I know that the campaign arm is trotting out the Project 2025 thing, but it increasingly seems like alarmist window dressing to me.  I say this because if I was a Senator or Governor, and was convinced that Biden was going to tank the election (which I do), and was convinced that Trump would turn us into Hungary, I hope I’d be saying something on the biggest platform I could find.  And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be much of a leader.  Hence my conclusion they don’t think Trump will be that much of a threat to democracy.  If I’m wrong and they’re really worried about Trump and democracy, why would I support that kind of feckless cowardice their silence represents?

It's dangerous to go against Trump. He's vindictive and has said he will go on a vengeance tour against his enemies. My guess is that these leaders are trying to protect their families from 2A nuts who feel compelled to protect their leader. If people don't remember the daily chaos of the Trump administration, they're going to be really shocked when they see what Trump 2.0 can do with a favorable Senate, House and SCOTUS.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #455 on: July 16, 2024, 10:49:38 PM »
Biden is significantly behind in swing states.

Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania: all +4.4% Trump or more
Georgia: +3.8%
Wisconsin: +1.4% or +3% Trump
Michigan: +0.6% or +1.3% Trump

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/16/trump-biden-2024-polls-heres-whos-winning-in-the-6-states-that-will-decide-the-election/


And those numbers likely undercount Trump support, per prior election cycles:

"Pollsters have made several major miscalculations over the past several election cycles, often underestimating support for Donald Trump.

Since the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling organizations have tried to identify the oversights that left them with severely off-target predictions."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-election-polls-were-wrong-in-2016-and-2020-and-whats-changing.html

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #456 on: July 17, 2024, 12:16:15 AM »
At least Trump will win the popular vote this time so we can't complain as much about the electoral college.

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #457 on: July 17, 2024, 06:57:29 AM »
I normally try to stay away from political threads, but feel compelled to register an opinion here.  I'll do my best (and likely fail) at staying away from the thread in the future.

I'm absolutely pissed.  Trump should be wearing an orange jumpsuit at this point.  Pick your choice among hundreds of crimes we know about (some he was charged with, some not).  Heck, I have yet to hear a compelling case for how January 6th was NOT treason.

The underlying issue isn't Trump.  The issue is that about half the country doesn't consider an attempted coup (or all of his other crimes and indiscretions) as disqualifying.  The number of people who actually support his plans to largely dismantle the federal government's ability to do its job and his plans to largely abandon security guarantees that have been in place since WWII are surprising.

Trump is likely on his way to becoming president.

There is one person in the country that has the agency to change the direction of this election.  That is Joe Biden.  He alone has the power to release his delegates.  Biden has spent the last four years being a perfectly acceptable Senator and an absentee President.  A single debate can hobble his campaign simply because he's barely been seen outside of heavily scripted events.  We don't know how sharp he still is simply because he's been hidden away in the White House. 

That's not good enough.

I don't live in a swing state, so I don't get to pretend my presidential vote matters. 

I won't vote for Trump or any of his enablers.  I probably won't vote for Biden, but may change my mind depending on how the rest of the campaign goes.  I am much more open to finding down-ballot republicans to support as long as they're not part of Trump's looney-toons brigade.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #458 on: July 17, 2024, 08:01:04 AM »
How do you feel about the current supreme Court? That they gave presidents essentially broad and undefined immunity? Citizens united? That it is ok and legal to bribe siting judges and politicians, as long as the bribe is given after the requested action is done? Nothing will be done about this sham court as long as the GOP holds the house and Senate. So yeah, everyone's vote matters.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2024, 08:05:38 AM by partgypsy »

NorCal

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #459 on: July 17, 2024, 08:45:29 AM »
How do you feel about the current supreme Court? That they gave presidents essentially broad and undefined immunity? Citizens united? That it is ok and legal to bribe siting judges and politicians, as long as the bribe is given after the requested action is done? Nothing will be done about this sham court as long as the GOP holds the house and Senate. So yeah, everyone's vote matters.

I am saddened by the corruption in our supreme court. 

I try to avoid getting caught up in the outrage, hype, and culture wars. 

I find the argument "you can only prevent supreme court corruption by voting democrat" to be somewhere between wishful thinking and an outright deceptive argument.  That's not actually how it works.

I will base my vote on the merits of individual candidates.  Colorado has a large number of quality democrat candidates up and down the ballot.  Quality republicans are harder to find, but they do exist.  I respect my current House and Senate representatives, and will vote for their re-election. 

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #460 on: July 17, 2024, 09:17:20 AM »
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/16/nx-s1-5042496/biden-supreme-court. If Biden and Democrats hold congress, meaningful reforms can be made. That's not wishful thinking. It's wishful thinking to vote for Republicans and think that's not enabling Trump's agenda.

Just Joe

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #461 on: July 17, 2024, 09:56:24 AM »
So a felon can run for president but a felon can't vote...

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #462 on: July 17, 2024, 10:12:27 AM »
So a felon can run for president but a felon can't vote...
During the New York court case, I believe it was said that there's nothing in our laws technically prevented a convicted felon from serving as President from prison. Kinda crazy. I suppose the people making the laws never even imagined that as a possibility.

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #463 on: July 17, 2024, 10:15:58 AM »
So a felon can run for president but a felon can't vote...
During the New York court case, I believe it was said that there's nothing in our laws technically prevented a convicted felon from serving as President from prison. Kinda crazy. I suppose the people making the laws never even imagined that as a possibility.

Convicted felons have run for other offices... so people should have imagined it.

LennStar

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #464 on: July 17, 2024, 10:59:21 AM »
So a felon can run for president but a felon can't vote...
During the New York court case, I believe it was said that there's nothing in our laws technically prevented a convicted felon from serving as President from prison. Kinda crazy. I suppose the people making the laws never even imagined that as a possibility.

Convicted felons have run for other offices... so people should have imagined it.
Running is one thing. Actually being something - especially the freaking president - is something else.

sixwings

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #465 on: July 17, 2024, 12:58:17 PM »
How do you feel about the current supreme Court? That they gave presidents essentially broad and undefined immunity? Citizens united? That it is ok and legal to bribe siting judges and politicians, as long as the bribe is given after the requested action is done? Nothing will be done about this sham court as long as the GOP holds the house and Senate. So yeah, everyone's vote matters.

I am saddened by the corruption in our supreme court. 

I try to avoid getting caught up in the outrage, hype, and culture wars. 

I find the argument "you can only prevent supreme court corruption by voting democrat" to be somewhere between wishful thinking and an outright deceptive argument.  That's not actually how it works.

I will base my vote on the merits of individual candidates.  Colorado has a large number of quality democrat candidates up and down the ballot.  Quality republicans are harder to find, but they do exist.  I respect my current House and Senate representatives, and will vote for their re-election.

How does it work then? The awful, corrupt SC votes has been pretty clear down the line of ideology. The right wing judges have all created and enabled this mess while the dem judges voted against it, pretty much every time. Moderate republicans, if such a thing exists, are rank and file republicans and will vote for whatever judge they are told to vote for that is selected by the federalist society. All republican senators voted for this disaster of a court.

GuitarStv

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #466 on: July 17, 2024, 01:31:24 PM »
How do you feel about the current supreme Court? That they gave presidents essentially broad and undefined immunity? Citizens united? That it is ok and legal to bribe siting judges and politicians, as long as the bribe is given after the requested action is done? Nothing will be done about this sham court as long as the GOP holds the house and Senate. So yeah, everyone's vote matters.

I am saddened by the corruption in our supreme court. 

I try to avoid getting caught up in the outrage, hype, and culture wars. 

I find the argument "you can only prevent supreme court corruption by voting democrat" to be somewhere between wishful thinking and an outright deceptive argument.  That's not actually how it works.

I will base my vote on the merits of individual candidates.  Colorado has a large number of quality democrat candidates up and down the ballot.  Quality republicans are harder to find, but they do exist.  I respect my current House and Senate representatives, and will vote for their re-election.

How does it work then? The awful, corrupt SC votes has been pretty clear down the line of ideology. The right wing judges have all created and enabled this mess while the dem judges voted against it, pretty much every time. Moderate republicans, if such a thing exists, are rank and file republicans and will vote for whatever judge they are told to vote for that is selected by the federalist society. All republican senators voted for this disaster of a court.

Yeah . . . this is the most partisan supreme court in US history.  It didn't happen by accident - it was a very deliberate plan that the Republican party succeeded in executing.  The Democrats have a lot of issues and problems, but only one party is responsible for fundamentally corrupting the SC.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #467 on: July 17, 2024, 01:59:40 PM »
Obama nominated Merrick Garland. McConnell and entire Senate were complicit in not allowing the confirmation process to go through fir ten long months. They denied him his presidential prerogative. Once Trump was in office Trumps nom was push through in three months. Every Republican senator voted for him. When Ginsburg died less than 4 months before end of Trump's turn, Trump's nominee was pushed through in record time. All Republicans but one voted to confirm. We would not have this supreme Court, without the GOPs active, sustained, and strategic efforts. Likewise, impeachment is the remedy to remove presidents who are considered unworthy to lead.  All Republicans voted to acquit Trump first impeachment. All but 7 (most of whom were retiring) voted to aquit in his 2nd impeachment. There would be no Trump without the GOP.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2024, 02:09:27 PM by partgypsy »

Travis

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #468 on: July 17, 2024, 04:29:47 PM »
When Ginsburg died less than 4 months before end of Trump's turn, Trump's nominee was pushed through in record time.

McConnell was on the phone before the end of the day.

iris lily

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #469 on: July 18, 2024, 02:46:53 PM »
According to this afternoon’s news, everyone is all aquiver awaiting President Biden’s announcement that he will not seek re election.

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #470 on: July 18, 2024, 09:11:19 PM »
There are reports starting that Biden will leave the race. I wonder if this is actually happening or if it's just more media spin looking for clicks and eyeballs. I'm very appreciative for what Biden has accomplished during his term but I'm a little excited at the idea of a much younger candidate going against Trump. I think they could bring some serious energy, and the relief for people who want to vote D but don't really want to vote for Biden might create some nice momentum. I think it also eliminates a lot of the garbage that Trump uses as a broken record. Hunter's laptop, Biden's history. All that goes out the window. They have to find new talking points to drag out. It won't affect my vote because I think Trump's character makes him inelligible for President but I'm definitely intrigued by a democratic ticket that might feature someone that isn't an 81-year-old man.

LennStar

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #471 on: July 18, 2024, 11:14:39 PM »
His Covid might be the best excuse they will ever get. If it's real...

I wonder how many Americans would accept AOC more than Biden?

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #472 on: July 19, 2024, 08:00:13 AM »
I could be wrong but I dk how much they can change the ticket at this point. But even Kamala with a younger VP pick would be energizing. I have to admit I am deeply appreciative of all the years of public service Biden has done. He cares. But I think younger voters esp are disaffected. And they need to talk about reforms of money in politics, reforms of the supreme Court (term limits, expansion) adding Puerto Rico as another state as part of platform.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2024, 08:03:38 AM by partgypsy »

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #473 on: July 19, 2024, 08:09:33 AM »
There are reports starting that Biden will leave the race. I wonder if this is actually happening or if it's just more media spin looking for clicks and eyeballs. I'm very appreciative for what Biden has accomplished during his term but I'm a little excited at the idea of a much younger candidate going against Trump. I think they could bring some serious energy, and the relief for people who want to vote D but don't really want to vote for Biden might create some nice momentum. I think it also eliminates a lot of the garbage that Trump uses as a broken record. Hunter's laptop, Biden's history. All that goes out the window. They have to find new talking points to drag out. It won't affect my vote because I think Trump's character makes him inelligible for President but I'm definitely intrigued by a democratic ticket that might feature someone that isn't an 81-year-old man.

Agree. Except I blame Joe and the inner circle for creating a death spiral we have to escape from. They KNEW who he was long before the debate and played with fire while they talked about saving democracy itself. Complete low lifes.

FWIW—the administration said this morning Joe is definitely staying in the race. Where is truth? Would add that mindlessly passing the ball to Kamala will lead to the same bad ending.

I suspect a huge Dem mess. I’m livid at Joe et al.

Forced errors out of narcissism.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2024, 08:11:11 AM by Ron Scott »

J Boogie

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #474 on: July 19, 2024, 08:38:03 AM »
I think one of the biggest turn-offs with both Biden and Harris is this tepid lack of transparency/candor they have both displayed during this administration.

It ends up feeling somewhat like gaslighting to voters.

Biden, for things like deflecting angrily on his capacity to serve as POTUS and campaign at a very tired (capable yet no meetings after 8pm) 81.

Harris, for abandoning the tough-on-crime (even truancy) political personality she has long been known for in order to better adapt to the moment of 2020 and do things like chop it up with the breakfast club laughing about how she's smoked marijuana. And now she gives extremely opaque word salad answers to basic questions in interviews that are hardly confrontational.

Now, of course Trump and his surrogates lie like crazy. But it's not a tepid, cautious lie they're hoping you buy. They are big bold claims that their base basically already believes but previously politicians had too much integrity to validate (See John McCain at a town hall refuting someone claiming Obama was Muslim).

Trump's lies energize his supporters. Biden's lack of transparency tends to create apathy, relying on his supporters to get energized by Trump. It's been almost a decade of that now.

Ideally, they'd grab someone like Josh Shapiro and he'd just say hey, the people of America are like the people of Pennsylvania. They overwhelmingly chose me over the MAGA candidate because America doesn't want political extremes and unhinged behavior. They want common sense, steady level headed leadership that inspires rather than inflames.

But it'll probably be Kamala, and she'll probably lose, regardless of whether Mark Kelly joins her on the ticket or not.


partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #475 on: July 19, 2024, 08:55:21 AM »
At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.
IDK. A late switch would be a rational gamble (for the party and its supporters) if a loss appeared likely. Better to risk the infighting, donor confusion, and name recognition risk than to coast into a loss. No time like the present to fix a mistake.

So the question is whether a loss is likely. To evaluate this risk we can simply ask what the Biden vs. Trump polls looked like in July 2020, when Biden won, versus today. According to FiveThirtyEight, five national polls were released on 7/15/2020 and they showed Biden with a 8-15% lead. Biden would go on to win with a mere 51.3% of the vote in an election with record high turnout.

This year, Trump has maintained a lead which has expanded to about 2%. So he's doing between ten and seventeen percent better than he was at this stage 4 years ago. According to RealClearPolitics, the average gambling odds of a Trump victory are now at 66.8%.

I'd say a Biden loss is "likely" and so the Dems might as well attempt to shake things up with a new candidate, and more importantly a new message.

Kennedy at 9% is a wild card. If he drops out it could shake things up one way or the other. However, as it stands with the electoral college being heavily tilted in the GOP's favor, this one is in the books as a Trump win.
my prediction. He is going to drop out and try to throw his votes to Trump.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #476 on: July 19, 2024, 09:05:07 AM »
I think Democrats should just focus on Senate, house, and other races.

Fireball

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #477 on: July 19, 2024, 09:11:17 AM »
At this date, I think it is too late for him to pull out. So we have what we have. Time to work on getting out the vote.
IDK. A late switch would be a rational gamble (for the party and its supporters) if a loss appeared likely. Better to risk the infighting, donor confusion, and name recognition risk than to coast into a loss. No time like the present to fix a mistake.

So the question is whether a loss is likely. To evaluate this risk we can simply ask what the Biden vs. Trump polls looked like in July 2020, when Biden won, versus today. According to FiveThirtyEight, five national polls were released on 7/15/2020 and they showed Biden with a 8-15% lead. Biden would go on to win with a mere 51.3% of the vote in an election with record high turnout.

This year, Trump has maintained a lead which has expanded to about 2%. So he's doing between ten and seventeen percent better than he was at this stage 4 years ago. According to RealClearPolitics, the average gambling odds of a Trump victory are now at 66.8%.

I'd say a Biden loss is "likely" and so the Dems might as well attempt to shake things up with a new candidate, and more importantly a new message.

Kennedy at 9% is a wild card. If he drops out it could shake things up one way or the other. However, as it stands with the electoral college being heavily tilted in the GOP's favor, this one is in the books as a Trump win.
my prediction. He is going to drop out and try to throw his votes to Trump.

Absolutely agree.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #478 on: July 19, 2024, 09:15:46 AM »
I think Democrats should just focus on Senate, house, and other races.

People’s presidential pick will drive votes down ballot. Complete mess all around. Guy who can’t keep a simple thought in his head for more than 30 seconds is gonna bring down the country. Dems do not deserve another chance after f’ing this up so mindlessly.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #479 on: July 19, 2024, 09:22:49 AM »
Remain calm and vote Blue.


Stop acting like anything else matters.  MAGA forces are playing on our fears.  We are the majority. 

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #480 on: July 19, 2024, 09:34:00 AM »
Remain calm and vote Blue.


Stop acting like anything else matters.  MAGA forces are playing on our fears.  We are the majority.

This is good, thanks.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #481 on: July 19, 2024, 01:23:40 PM »
Remain calm and vote Blue.


Stop acting like anything else matters.  MAGA forces are playing on our fears.  We are the majority.

Agree completely.

simonsez

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #482 on: July 19, 2024, 01:33:35 PM »
Remain calm and vote Blue.
This blue-no-matter-who (and same for the red-until-I'm-dead people) strategy is such a turnoff to many of those closer to the middle and/or independent who still look at issues, positions, and candidate attributes.  If those things do not matter at all to a high enough % in a given party, then the billionaires with influence at the political party level will meddle and we end up with what we have this election.  It remains to be seen if that is a winning or losing strategy.  Personally, I reject that and it's irrelevant to me if I'm in the minority on that way of thinking or not (e.g. I'm not religious at the moment even though ~85% of the world is, whatever the majority do is just not that relevant to me and my own bubble).  If you want my vote (albeit insignificant) you have to earn it.  It's not automatic.  Who a party throws up there on the ballot matters, at least to me.  And I'm not asking for much.  AOC would be an interesting hypothetical for me as I think she needs some seasoning/maturity but overall I would be much more inclined to vote for her (as an example, there are plenty of other choices I'd more readily vote for) and the presence she brings than I would be for Biden.  On the other side of the coin, it would take a pretty amazing candidate (like a 40s-50s John McCain-esque type would be intriguing) to tempt me to vote R (and the D candidate would have to be mediocre or terrible) and it certainly isn't going to happen with Trump.  I mean, Trump was a Democrat as recently as the aughts of this century.  If he was the guy on the D side of the ticket, would all of the blue-no-matter-what be voting for him now?  I wouldn't vote for him as a D but to each their own.

I'm not hating on your personal strategy.  Do whatever works for you.  I'm just pointing out that it can be alienating to others (based on the context and the candidates) and if that turns out to be a losing strategy for the D side, are they (the party) going to continue to trot out likely losers in the future that only the "true Blues" will vote for or are they actually going to listen to the people instead of the oligarchs to capture more of the middle ground?  So much data is collected nowadays and it's still shocking to me that the political machine of the D side thought this is the best they could come up with (after the guy said years ago he wanted to only do one-term).  It could still work, though, who knows.  Staying calm over here yet in a different way.

Stop acting like anything else matters.  MAGA forces are playing on our fears.  We are the majority.

I will keep acting like there is more to life and politics than who the damn POTUS is.  Biden has been president before.  Trump has been president before.  My life was great before either of them took office, continued being great during their terms, and I suspect will continue to be great (health-willing) after these sociological experiments are put out to pasture.  I understand that whoever the next POTUS is that we will still fund wars I don't agree with and kill far too many civilians, we will still lose topsoil, feed poison to everyone, slam the other side of the political aisle, adhere to big lobbyist groups, the power of unions and workers' rights will still be eroded, health insurance will continue to be inefficient, SS will continue to be underfunded if you run any projection out far enough, mass shootings will still happen, healthy fetuses will still be terminated, unhealthy fetuses will still be terminated, we will still support slavery with our Apple and Android purchases, pythons will still take over the Everglades, vets will still suffer disproportionately from mental health and homelessness issues, will still have profits prioritized that hollow out infrastructure and overall quality that lead to accidents, will still have far too many opiate ODs with not much changing, garbage patches of plastic in the oceans will still grow, and natural disasters will still disproportionately wreck the underprivileged.  I get all that.  All those issues (and countless others) are either completely outside my circle of control or only very marginally included.  There are just so many more elections/choices, ways to spend money, ways to donate/spend my time, ways to choose who I hang out with, ways to earn money, ways to exercise, ways to travel, and ways to engage the mind that are more impactful to me (or even more impactful to political issues I care about relative to the power of the vote itself).  It doesn't mean nothing but whoever the next POTUS is will be pretty far down the totem pole of importance in my very privileged life (VERY thankful for the where and when relative to the other 110 billion humans to have ever existed).  YMMV.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #483 on: July 19, 2024, 03:53:36 PM »
Remain calm and vote Blue.
This blue-no-matter-who (and same for the red-until-I'm-dead people) strategy is such a turnoff to many of those closer to the middle and/or independent who still look at issues, positions, and candidate attributes.  If those things do not matter at all to a high enough % in a given party, then the billionaires with influence at the political party level will meddle and we end up with what we have this election.  It remains to be seen if that is a winning or losing strategy.  Personally, I reject that and it's irrelevant to me if I'm in the minority on that way of thinking or not (e.g. I'm not religious at the moment even though ~85% of the world is, whatever the majority do is just not that relevant to me and my own bubble).  If you want my vote (albeit insignificant) you have to earn it.  It's not automatic.  Who a party throws up there on the ballot matters, at least to me.  And I'm not asking for much.  AOC would be an interesting hypothetical for me as I think she needs some seasoning/maturity but overall I would be much more inclined to vote for her (as an example, there are plenty of other choices I'd more readily vote for) and the presence she brings than I would be for Biden.  On the other side of the coin, it would take a pretty amazing candidate (like a 40s-50s John McCain-esque type would be intriguing) to tempt me to vote R (and the D candidate would have to be mediocre or terrible) and it certainly isn't going to happen with Trump.  I mean, Trump was a Democrat as recently as the aughts of this century.  If he was the guy on the D side of the ticket, would all of the blue-no-matter-what be voting for him now?  I wouldn't vote for him as a D but to each their own.

I'm not hating on your personal strategy.  Do whatever works for you.  I'm just pointing out that it can be alienating to others (based on the context and the candidates) and if that turns out to be a losing strategy for the D side, are they (the party) going to continue to trot out likely losers in the future that only the "true Blues" will vote for or are they actually going to listen to the people instead of the oligarchs to capture more of the middle ground?  So much data is collected nowadays and it's still shocking to me that the political machine of the D side thought this is the best they could come up with (after the guy said years ago he wanted to only do one-term).  It could still work, though, who knows.  Staying calm over here yet in a different way.

Stop acting like anything else matters.  MAGA forces are playing on our fears.  We are the majority.

I will keep acting like there is more to life and politics than who the damn POTUS is.  Biden has been president before.  Trump has been president before.  My life was great before either of them took office, continued being great during their terms, and I suspect will continue to be great (health-willing) after these sociological experiments are put out to pasture.  I understand that whoever the next POTUS is that we will still fund wars I don't agree with and kill far too many civilians, we will still lose topsoil, feed poison to everyone, slam the other side of the political aisle, adhere to big lobbyist groups, the power of unions and workers' rights will still be eroded, health insurance will continue to be inefficient, SS will continue to be underfunded if you run any projection out far enough, mass shootings will still happen, healthy fetuses will still be terminated, unhealthy fetuses will still be terminated, we will still support slavery with our Apple and Android purchases, pythons will still take over the Everglades, vets will still suffer disproportionately from mental health and homelessness issues, will still have profits prioritized that hollow out infrastructure and overall quality that lead to accidents, will still have far too many opiate ODs with not much changing, garbage patches of plastic in the oceans will still grow, and natural disasters will still disproportionately wreck the underprivileged.  I get all that.  All those issues (and countless others) are either completely outside my circle of control or only very marginally included.  There are just so many more elections/choices, ways to spend money, ways to donate/spend my time, ways to choose who I hang out with, ways to earn money, ways to exercise, ways to travel, and ways to engage the mind that are more impactful to me (or even more impactful to political issues I care about relative to the power of the vote itself).  It doesn't mean nothing but whoever the next POTUS is will be pretty far down the totem pole of importance in my very privileged life (VERY thankful for the where and when relative to the other 110 billion humans to have ever existed).  YMMV.

I agree with the belief one should focus on one's locus of control. Otherwise it is easy to feel overwhelmed, helpless, and demoralized.

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #484 on: July 19, 2024, 05:54:53 PM »
There are just so many more elections/choices, ways to spend money, ways to donate/spend my time, ways to choose who I hang out with, ways to earn money, ways to exercise, ways to travel, and ways to engage the mind that are more impactful to me (or even more impactful to political issues I care about relative to the power of the vote itself).  It doesn't mean nothing but whoever the next POTUS is will be pretty far down the totem pole of importance in my very privileged life (VERY thankful for the where and when relative to the other 110 billion humans to have ever existed).  YMMV.
If you're a straight, white man with only straight, white male children (or none) that doesn't mind some type of evangelical Christian theocracy, these statements are probably true. If not, you may want to read up on Project 2025 and what it has the potential to do. That will be driven by the POTUS.

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #485 on: July 19, 2024, 07:25:15 PM »
Interview with Allan Lichtman posted today.

https://youtu.be/S-hZeRQxA0g?si=RUj34uRV0Ly9U6bF

Kris

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #486 on: July 19, 2024, 07:37:20 PM »
There are just so many more elections/choices, ways to spend money, ways to donate/spend my time, ways to choose who I hang out with, ways to earn money, ways to exercise, ways to travel, and ways to engage the mind that are more impactful to me (or even more impactful to political issues I care about relative to the power of the vote itself).  It doesn't mean nothing but whoever the next POTUS is will be pretty far down the totem pole of importance in my very privileged life (VERY thankful for the where and when relative to the other 110 billion humans to have ever existed).  YMMV.
If you're a straight, white man with only straight, white male children (or none) that doesn't mind some type of evangelical Christian theocracy, these statements are probably true. If not, you may want to read up on Project 2025 and what it has the potential to do. That will be driven by the POTUS.

Exactly. Straight white men stand to lose nothing. The rest of us, though, are in some shit. Maybe care about us?

MrGreen

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #487 on: July 19, 2024, 08:35:18 PM »
I watched a different interview today that really drove home how easy it would be to end our democracy with another Trump administration. His first term was the set up, whether intentional or not, in that they were able to stress test our checks and balances to see what worked while installing lots of loyalist judges. During his second term, he needs only to enact Schedule F, replace 100,000 career civilian experts with loyalists (including the DOJ), and place more loyalist judges. Then when the 2028 election happens, DOJ loyalists bring election fraud charges for districts they don't want votes to count in and the Aileen Cannons of the judiciary uphold the complaints. Voila! Free and fair elections are no more. It's scary how simple it is.

Knowing that's potentially what's at stake, I can understand why people would be pissed at Democrats for hiding Biden's problems while those folks also understand what's at stake. However, it may not matter at this point. Ohio could very well keep anyone but Biden off the ballot with that law they passed and after the recent SCOTUS rulings, I wouldn't put it past them to uphold that.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2024, 08:37:02 PM by Mr. Green »

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #488 on: July 20, 2024, 07:57:28 AM »
One should also listen to the aoc talk. The Republicans have made changes to state election laws that make it so, if the Biden Harris ticket is changed, they may not be on one or more swing state ballots. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/19/nation/ocasio-cortez-president-biden-critics-aoc/

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #489 on: July 20, 2024, 08:29:22 AM »
One should also listen to the aoc talk. The Republicans have made changes to state election laws that make it so, if the Biden Harris ticket is changed, they may not be on one or more swing state ballots. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/19/nation/ocasio-cortez-president-biden-critics-aoc/

That's extremely disturbing because like it or not (and I know a few on here don't) the campaign seems to be imploding from the perspective of high profile support and donor funding.

Ron Scott

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #490 on: July 20, 2024, 03:01:30 PM »
One should also listen to the aoc talk. The Republicans have made changes to state election laws that make it so, if the Biden Harris ticket is changed, they may not be on one or more swing state ballots. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/07/19/nation/ocasio-cortez-president-biden-critics-aoc/

That's extremely disturbing because like it or not (and I know a few on here don't) the campaign seems to be imploding from the perspective of high profile support and donor funding.

It IS disturbing, but mostly because of who the players are.

I hate the fact that these political parties can just “reserve a slot” for somebody they select down the line on a presidential ballot.  We all get upset about things like citizens united—but what about the parties themselves?

wenchsenior

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #491 on: July 21, 2024, 12:46:15 PM »
Biden is out. Let's shake this shit up Dems!  :opens wallet immediately:

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #492 on: July 21, 2024, 12:53:52 PM »
Biden is out. Let's shake this shit up Dems!  :opens wallet immediately:

He endorsed Harris, I would have preferred an open brokered convention...

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #493 on: July 21, 2024, 12:54:54 PM »
Biden is out. Let's shake this shit up Dems!  :opens wallet immediately:
  honestly, this makes me respect him even more.

dividendman

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #494 on: July 21, 2024, 12:55:46 PM »
Biden is out. Let's shake this shit up Dems!  :opens wallet immediately:
  honestly, this makes me respect him even more.

Yes, I can't even imagine Trump giving up power at the end of his 2nd term. Doing something that is better for the country than himself is why Biden >>>>>>>>>>> Trump.

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #495 on: July 21, 2024, 12:57:46 PM »
Biden is out. Let's shake this shit up Dems!  :opens wallet immediately:

He endorsed Harris, I would have preferred an open brokered convention...
. I would too. But if they change both Biden and kamala, they risk being excluded on the ballot of one or more swing states due to GOP shenanigans. That's what I've read.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2024, 01:00:07 PM by partgypsy »

oldtoyota

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #496 on: July 21, 2024, 01:01:15 PM »
I’m a lifelong democrat and have always voted that way (with one exception for mayor).  While I’m likely going to vote for Biden in my swing State, I no longer do so from the perspective that Trump represents an existential threat to democracy.  In that regard, by sticking with Biden, I have to conclude that party leaders don’t take the risk of what Trump will do to the country all that seriously.  If party leaders aren’t worried, why should I be?  I know that the campaign arm is trotting out the Project 2025 thing, but it increasingly seems like alarmist window dressing to me.  I say this because if I was a Senator or Governor, and was convinced that Biden was going to tank the election (which I do), and was convinced that Trump would turn us into Hungary, I hope I’d be saying something on the biggest platform I could find.  And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be much of a leader.  Hence my conclusion they don’t think Trump will be that much of a threat to democracy.  If I’m wrong and they’re really worried about Trump and democracy, why would I support that kind of feckless cowardice their silence represents?

That's an interesting perspective. Do you have a modified view based on Biden dropping out?

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #497 on: July 21, 2024, 01:31:34 PM »
I'm happy to see Biden drop out.  It was the right call.  I respect him for his decision, and I don't blame him for spending a few weeks to see if the campaign was salvageable.

My thoughts will continue to evolve depending on how things change over the coming weeks.  I hope the party selects someone who polls well in the relevant swing states instead of reaching for Harris as the easiest replacement.  Ideally it wouldn't be a coronation for Harris, nor would it be a free-for-all with a hundred different candidates.  Hopefully the party can manage maybe 5-10 quality candidates for some type of public vetting. 

I'm no lawyer, but I expect the litigation threats about leaving someone off the ballot are mostly hot air.  The Supreme Court just ruled that states had no right to keep Trump off the ballot.  While I don't particularly trust this Supreme Court, I don't think they'd be so bold to keep a major party nominee off the ballot for any reason. 

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #498 on: July 21, 2024, 01:39:52 PM »
While I don't particularly trust this Supreme Court, I don't think they'd be so bold to keep a major party nominee off the ballot for any reason.

Yeah.  I remember when people were saying that they wouldn't be so bold to overturn roe v wade too . . .

partgypsy

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Re: Well I hope the Dems are proud of themselves
« Reply #499 on: July 21, 2024, 01:49:52 PM »
While I don't particularly trust this Supreme Court, I don't think they'd be so bold to keep a major party nominee off the ballot for any reason.

Yeah.  I remember when people were saying that they wouldn't be so bold to overturn roe v wade too . . .

It was Roe vs Wade. And Citizens United which went against explicit arguments and protections the founding fathers had to limit the power of corporations. And their ruling that presidents (even when they are no longer president) have immunity.  And their overturning of the Chevron defense, which has been case law for over 40 years. https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/supreme-court-issues-landmark-decision-upending-deference-to-federal-agencies/.

honestly at this point I'd vote for anyone that would prevent another 4 years of GOP judicial appointments.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2024, 03:00:16 PM by partgypsy »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!