Ukraine

[cerat0n1a]

Now both their energy and defense costs are increasing. Where does this money come from over the next decade? Raising corporate taxes could make them less competitive with the US et al. And how are the growing far right locals gonna handle cuts to their famed social welfare system?

Both are relatively small things. The UK, for example, spent 2.3% of GDP on defence last year, which is less than half what is spent on schools, about a quarter of what is spent on the national health service and about a fifth of what is spent annually on social welfare. Most economic analyses say that the effect of the loss of Russian gas beyond 2026 is pretty much negliglble in Europe.

The issue with increasing defence spending in Europe is not so much the cost - it's that there's nowhere to spend the money. No point in governments making the money available if you don't have the factories to build weapons, nor the engineering capability to do it. That stuff takes a long time to happen.

[Radagast]

Still seems like a good guess/model  :D

Here's sort of a mental model of how I see this playing out. In the 1st year Russia could deliver 4,000 operational first and second rate tanks to Ukraine. In the 2nd year they could deliver 3,000 mostly second rate. In the 3rd year they can deliver 2,000. In the 4th year 1,000, then 500 per year indefinitely. Each year they lose half of everything fielded, and half of what is left is cannibalized to keep the last quarter running, so they retain 25%. That gives the following numbers of tanks fielded per year:
4,000 (2022)
4,000 (2023)
3,000 (2024)
1,750 (2025)
938 (2026)
... converging to 666 which makes sense. They will never actually run out of tanks (or anything else), but eventually the numbers and quality in the field will drop below what is needed to sustain the intensity of the combat. And ditto for other equipment. So the first and second years are quite sustainable, but things get rougher in the 3rd year and dire beyond that. There is a huge drop as they transition from their stockpiles to their production capacity.  My argument is that sometime between Russian intensity of 4,000 and 666 tanks fielded per year Ukraine will become strong enough to overwhelm their efforts. In practice it will look like Russia suffering proportionally more and more personnel casualties to accomplish less and less.

This is for war years, so it rolls over in late February.

[waltworks]

I think when they run out of money to pay people to be in meat waves is more relevant. The tanks just get burned by FPV drones before they get anywhere near the line of contact these days anyway. They're just too obvious and slow and a couple of drones with shaped charges are going to immediately disable or destroy them.

"Mechanized" assaults now consist of e-scooters and quads and such.

-W

[LennStar]

I think when they run out of money to pay people to be in meat waves is more relevant. The tanks just get burned by FPV drones before they get anywhere near the line of contact these days anyway. They're just too obvious and slow and a couple of drones with shaped charges are going to immediately disable or destroy them.

"Mechanized" assaults now consist of e-scooters and quads and such.

-W

That's A) not true (or they would not lose several tanks a day) and B) mainly because there aren't enough tanks left. A tank still takes on average several drones with relative expensive booms and good pilots, while a golf car only needs a newbie with a hand grenade attached to his cheap drone.

[Ron Scott]

An FYI, Lex Fridman just released a 3 hour podcast interview with Zelenskyy.

https://youtu.be/u321m25rKXc?si=Oq562CU4VQgmHGQE

[iris lily]

An FYI, Lex Fridman just released a 3 hour podcast interview with Zelenskyy.

https://youtu.be/u321m25rKXc?si=Oq562CU4VQgmHGQE

I heard a minute or so that as it flashed across my YouTube choices. Lex was really sticking it to Zelensky in that bit.

[Posthumane]

Interesting, I'm curious which bit that might have been that you listened to iris lily. I just listed to the whole thing over the last couple of days and, while there were a few points on which they disagreed, I thought it was quite respectful all the way through.

[LaineyAZ]

Just heard a sobering report on NPR.  Seems like morale is low for both the Ukrainian people and the military fighters.   

Fewer young people signing up and more military deserters being prosecuted.  Weaponry not as easy to get.  Draft age is 25, there's pressure to lower it but so far Zelensky is holding it at 25.

There was talk of Zelensky offering to cede some territory that the Russians have already taken - "temporarily" - in return for a cease fire.  Not sure if this was formally proposed or if it's just talk. 
I'm sure Ukrainians realize the incoming U.S. administration is not interested in helping them so they are beginning to accept their more grim reality.

[Dancin'Dog]

Just heard a sobering report on NPR.  Seems like morale is low for both the Ukrainian people and the military fighters.   

Fewer young people signing up and more military deserters being prosecuted.  Weaponry not as easy to get.  Draft age is 25, there's pressure to lower it but so far Zelensky is holding it at 25.

There was talk of Zelensky offering to cede some territory that the Russians have already taken - "temporarily" - in return for a cease fire.  Not sure if this was formally proposed or if it's just talk. 
I'm sure Ukrainians realize the incoming U.S. administration is not interested in helping them so they are beginning to accept their more grim reality.

Many Americans are beginning to accept their more grim reality also. 

[waltworks]

It will all depend on how much Trump doesn't want to be associated with Russians looting and burning Kiev, I guess. I think everyone knows that at this point and everyone is just waiting to see what he does.

-W

[reeshau]

I read an interesting article that said Russia would be out of foreign currency reserves by the fall, which will hamper their armament purchases and the economy overall.  It's interesting to wonder why Trump's in a hurry, or that this is a marathon between Ukrainian morale and Russian money.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-wealth-fund-reserves-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-stagflation-2025-1

[Travis]

It's a weird mix of signals right now, and Trump probably prefers it that way. Speaker Johnson appears to be trying to purge all Ukrainian assistance from the House, while Putin's spokesmen outright reject the hypotheticals being presented by Trump's spokesmen. Meanwhile Russia's economic deterioration continues and Ukraine continues to lose ground. So far most of Trump's election promises "I'll solve that in a day" he's now backing off of, including this one.

[blue_green_sparks]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

[BicycleB]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

I've wondered about this a lot, but sometimes I read Futura Doctrina, a Substack by a defense analyst named Mick Ryan (from Australia, but whatever) who keeps visiting Ukraine and meeting with lots of Ukrainian generals, soldiers, etc. He seems to think that while Russia has the initiative, Ukraine might hang on a while. He argues that Russia, while improving some of its techniques, has squandered most of its opportunities; meanwhile, Europe's defense production is growing and, he seems to imply, might be enough to Ukraine going - perhaps enabling Ukraine's gradual improvements to even prove decisive someday.

In short, even if USA does shortchange Ukraine under Trump as we assume, maybe Ukraine keeps fighting.

Fwiw, one thing that makes him seem credible to my untutored eye is his descriptions of specific Russian (and sometimes Ukrainian) tactics that haven't been described in this thread, as far as I can see. Russia has been innovating in tactics and technology, though perhaps not as fast as Ukraine, and responding rapidly at times to Ukrainian innovations. Ryan thinks that continued adaptation by both sides will be significant.

Maybe the war will survive without us?

***

Sorry about the paywall but a solid fraction is visible free in the two-part analysis linked below.

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/seven-strategic-endeavours?r=67fsc&triedRedirect=true

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/seven-strategic-endeavours-part-2?r=67fsc&triedRedirect=true

[Ron Scott]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

This is absolutely astounding. Post-Reagan/HW the US forgot why they created a world order in the first place and decided to get pissy and nasty internally instead.

Clinton did nothing to encourage their democratic supporters. W did what? “Looked into Putin’s soul!” for god’s sake and let them take Georgia. Obama—completely CLUELESS—basically went 😱 and let them take Crimea. Trump kissed Putin’s ass for 4 years like a 2-year old. And Biden sent tons of bombs and told Ukraine not to touch Russia?!?

And everybody’s wondering why NK is acting up and China is beating their chest over Taiwan? What’s the big surprise?

Look, back in the ‘60s and ‘70 everyone KNEW what Russia was. It was common sense…not a big surprise! Just listen to Nixon:
https://youtu.be/7Ors4xO2Ef8?si=zyihYf0oB5lr3YUX

[MustacheAndaHalf]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

By "bigger cold war", are you assuming Russia hasn't been weakened by this conflict?  This will be a pyrrhic victory, at best.

Russia has taken severe military losses in the war it started with Ukraine.  It is far weaker now than it was in 2021.  One former intelligence analyst believes Russia's economy could collapse when it is no longer on a war footing.  Switching back to consumer goods could be a disaster.

In the world corruption perceptions index, European countries rank near the top, representing extremely low corruption.  Russia ranks in the bottom quartile, 141 out of 180 countries.  China ranks in the upper half, 76/180.  Russia runs on corruption, while China doesn't.  There's numerous other differences like their economies and dependence on the rest of the world.  Seeing Russia do something doesn't mean China will accept the same costs and do the same thing.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023

[LennStar]

After a few weeks of NK soldiers actually fighting, we have descriptions of their performance.

Ukraine sources describe them as very disciplined (no surprise there), with high morale (that is more a surprise) and excellent in using their small arms.
That fits with the instances of soldiers blowing themselves up instead of getting cought.

Looks like Ukraine is lucky there is so much language barrier, missing heavy equipment and 50 year old tactics on the NK side.

[BicycleB]

After a few weeks of NK soldiers actually fighting, we have descriptions of their performance.

Ukraine sources describe them as very disciplined (no surprise there), with high morale (that is more a surprise) and excellent in using their small arms.
That fits with the instances of soldiers blowing themselves up instead of getting cought.

Looks like Ukraine is lucky there is so much language barrier, missing heavy equipment and 50 year old tactics on the NK side.

Interesting summary, @LennStar. My few and limited sources have given a more negative picture, such as describing an entire battalion wiped out in 2 days once they engaged in battle, but I lacked confidence in those sources even before your summary.

Where are you getting these reports from? Are any of your sources easily accessible to English speakers?

[YttriumNitrate]

Looks like Ukraine is lucky there is so much language barrier, missing heavy equipment and 50 year old tactics on the NK side.

It will be interesting to see how quickly North Korea adapts. The USA's defense language courses are 36 to 64 weeks long [1] so we can expect a good number of soldiers/officers to be functionally bi-lingual within a year or so if Russia and/or North Korea deem it important. Russia has been slow to adapt to Ukrainian tactics, but they certainly have been adapting. We'll find out how long it takes for North Korea to adapt.

[Travis]

After a few weeks of NK soldiers actually fighting, we have descriptions of their performance.

Ukraine sources describe them as very disciplined (no surprise there), with high morale (that is more a surprise) and excellent in using their small arms.
That fits with the instances of soldiers blowing themselves up instead of getting cought.

Looks like Ukraine is lucky there is so much language barrier, missing heavy equipment and 50 year old tactics on the NK side.

Interesting summary, @LennStar. My few and limited sources have given a more negative picture, such as describing an entire battalion wiped out in 2 days once they engaged in battle, but I lacked confidence in those sources even before your summary.

Where are you getting these reports from? Are any of your sources easily accessible to English speakers?

Both of these things can be true at the same time. All the best discipline and rifle-handling in the world doesn't mean much if you're still running into open fields of artillery (I've seen the videos). A for effort, but they don't appear to have had much payoff.

[LennStar]

Where are you getting these reports from? Are any of your sources easily accessible to English speakers?

On Youtube I watch "reporting from Ukraine" because it's short and shows low level actions - nice for someone who never was in the military. He never talks  bout the bad for Ukraine stuff though (I suspect it to be a U military PR account).
Then there is Denys Davydov, an Ukrainian that is more balanced.

In case of the NK soldier description both and German newspaper reported about that - which likely means those "several Ukrainian sources" mean it's what the U military wants you to hear, but again, it fits with the behavior of killing yourself and walking through artillery rain and the "training manual" about shooting down drones with your rifles that has been shown in a Russian video before.

[blue_green_sparks]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

This is absolutely astounding. Post-Reagan/HW the US forgot why they created a world order in the first place and decided to get pissy and nasty internally instead.

Clinton did nothing to encourage their democratic supporters. W did what? “Looked into Putin’s soul!” for god’s sake and let them take Georgia. Obama—completely CLUELESS—basically went 😱 and let them take Crimea. Trump kissed Putin’s ass for 4 years like a 2-year old. And Biden sent tons of bombs and told Ukraine not to touch Russia?!?

And everybody’s wondering why NK is acting up and China is beating their chest over Taiwan? What’s the big surprise?

Look, back in the ‘60s and ‘70 everyone KNEW what Russia was. It was common sense…not a big surprise! Just listen to Nixon:
https://youtu.be/7Ors4xO2Ef8?si=zyihYf0oB5lr3YUX

He really called it. It is ironic that we have had American boots on the ground fighting in countries that didn't care and in wars that really didn't matter much. Ukraine is suffering because of all that.

[LennStar]

Where are you getting these reports from? Are any of your sources easily accessible to English speakers?

On Youtube I watch "reporting from Ukraine" because it's short and shows low level actions - nice for someone who never was in the military. He never talks  bout the bad for Ukraine stuff though (I suspect it to be a U military PR account).
Then there is Denys Davydov, an Ukrainian that is more balanced.

In case of the NK soldier description both and German newspaper reported about that - which likely means those "several Ukrainian sources" mean it's what the U military wants you to hear, but again, it fits with the behavior of killing yourself and walking through artillery rain and the "training manual" about shooting down drones with your rifles that has been shown in a Russian video before.

Oh, and I forgot a must-see youtuber if you are into more than just frontline clashes: Perun, like his last video on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY Ukrainian Equipment Reserves (2025) - Production, Aid & Equipment Attrition

-----

Meanwhile both sides seem to continue to put as much performance on to have an effect on Trump. Ukraine continues long-distance strikes on Russian war infrastructure, while Russia continues meat wave attacks with soldiers on crutches.
Surprisingly the Situation in Kursk seems to have somewhat come to a standstill - talking only about general frontlines here.  Maybe the Russians have reached their temporal exhaustion point even with the NKs and the Ukrainians holding on with their teeth.

[BicycleB]

Where are you getting these reports from? Are any of your sources easily accessible to English speakers?

On Youtube I watch "reporting from Ukraine" because it's short and shows low level actions - nice for someone who never was in the military. He never talks  bout the bad for Ukraine stuff though (I suspect it to be a U military PR account).
Then there is Denys Davydov, an Ukrainian that is more balanced.

In case of the NK soldier description both and German newspaper reported about that - which likely means those "several Ukrainian sources" mean it's what the U military wants you to hear, but again, it fits with the behavior of killing yourself and walking through artillery rain and the "training manual" about shooting down drones with your rifles that has been shown in a Russian video before.

Oh, and I forgot a must-see youtuber if you are into more than just frontline clashes: Perun, like his last video on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY Ukrainian Equipment Reserves (2025) - Production, Aid & Equipment Attrition

-----

Meanwhile both sides seem to continue to put as much performance on to have an effect on Trump. Ukraine continues long-distance strikes on Russian war infrastructure, while Russia continues meat wave attacks with soldiers on crutches.
Surprisingly the Situation in Kursk seems to have somewhat come to a standstill - talking only about general frontlines here.  Maybe the Russians have reached their temporal exhaustion point even with the NKs and the Ukrainians holding on with their teeth.

@LennStar, thanks for the sources in this and the previous post

[LennStar]

A month ago I told you there seems to be a (localized) culmination of Russian attacks due to the heavy losses that cannot be replaced fast enough.

Now Ukraine has done some counter attacks, getting back a village or two here and there.
The most important counters have been to the south of Prokrovsk, into the encirclement move of the Russians near the train line.
The second one is in Kursk near Sudzha, the most important logistic hub in the area for Ukraine. Putin really hates that, he has already fired the responsible officer.

That said Russia still has the weight and Ukraine can't punch through on any big scale, while on the other hand it would be easy for Russia to flood an area if they manage to punch a bigger hole anywhere on the front.

[Fru-Gal]

So, hmmm.... let's see Ukraine falls and then what? A bigger cold war versus a victorious Russia, Iran and N Korea commences? And China, now emboldened eyeballing Taiwan.

This is absolutely astounding. Post-Reagan/HW the US forgot why they created a world order in the first place and decided to get pissy and nasty internally instead.

Clinton did nothing to encourage their democratic supporters. W did what? “Looked into Putin’s soul!” for god’s sake and let them take Georgia. Obama—completely CLUELESS—basically went 😱 and let them take Crimea. Trump kissed Putin’s ass for 4 years like a 2-year old. And Biden sent tons of bombs and told Ukraine not to touch Russia?!?

And everybody’s wondering why NK is acting up and China is beating their chest over Taiwan? What’s the big surprise?

Look, back in the ‘60s and ‘70 everyone KNEW what Russia was. It was common sense…not a big surprise! Just listen to Nixon:
https://youtu.be/7Ors4xO2Ef8?si=zyihYf0oB5lr3YUX

He really called it. It is ironic that we have had American boots on the ground fighting in countries that didn't care and in wars that really didn't matter much. Ukraine is suffering because of all that.

I was at a talk in the late 90s where the headliner was Colin Powell and the whole thesis was that the Cold War was over. We now can see, it was not.

[Radagast]

With Tulsi Gabbard as DNI and Hegseth spewing Russia-First bullshit, the US is now controlled by anti-Ukraine and even Anti-American factions. Putin is smarter and more powerful than I gave him credit for.

[Travis]

Hegseth in Germany today lecturing the rest of the continent that Ukrainian security is on their shoulders. He says restoring their previous borders is unrealistic and NATO membership is off the table. He suggests that NATO countries provide peacekeepers and the US most definitely will not, but can't invoke Article 5 if Russia attacks again.

Trump just got off the phone with Putin and Zelensky separately. Putin says he wants to stop killing people, but will not trade land as part of a peace deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/12/russia-will-not-exchange-ukrainian-land-kursk-region-kremlin

[big_owl]

Hegseth in Germany today lecturing the rest of the continent that Ukrainian security is on their shoulders. He says restoring their previous borders is unrealistic and NATO membership is off the table. He suggests that NATO countries provide peacekeepers and the US most definitely will not, but can't invoke Article 5 if Russia attacks again.

Trump just got off the phone with Putin and Zelensky separately. Putin says he wants to stop killing people, but will not trade land as part of a peace deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/12/russia-will-not-exchange-ukrainian-land-kursk-region-kremlin

The whole Kursk thing was really perplexing from the start.  I do not know if Ukraine was really delusional enough to think they were going to militarily make large inroads into russia or whether it was some misguided attempt to gain a bargaining chip.  It's basically turned into a lodestone around their necks though.  Ukraine can't abandon the area and cut their losses because it would be a major PR disaster for them.  And frankly I think the russians are in no hurry to kick them out.  Ukraine stuck having to commit resources to it and effectively opened a second front where russia has the advantage of defensive positioning just manning it with green troops or even NKs while they're able to continue making progress in the east knowing ukraine is having to divert precious resources to kursk.  Maybe there's some 4-D chess going on but frankly I'm not seeing it - if russia were actually concerned about it being a bargaining chip they would just dial back their attacks in the east a bit, move to defensive positioning in a couple areas, and divert serious resources to kursk to kick the Ukrainians out in short order.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

The term "cold war" means a frozen conflict - not an active one.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't part of a cold war.

Hegseth in Germany today lecturing the rest of the continent that Ukrainian security is on their shoulders. He says restoring their previous borders is unrealistic and NATO membership is off the table. He suggests that NATO countries provide peacekeepers and the US most definitely will not, but can't invoke Article 5 if Russia attacks again.

Trump just got off the phone with Putin and Zelensky separately. Putin says he wants to stop killing people, but will not trade land as part of a peace deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/12/russia-will-not-exchange-ukrainian-land-kursk-region-kremlin

The whole Kursk thing was really perplexing from the start.  I do not know if Ukraine was really delusional enough to think they were going to militarily make large inroads into russia or whether it was some misguided attempt to gain a bargaining chip.  It's basically turned into a lodestone around their necks though.  Ukraine can't abandon the area and cut their losses because it would be a major PR disaster for them.  And frankly I think the russians are in no hurry to kick them out.  Ukraine stuck having to commit resources to it and effectively opened a second front where russia has the advantage of defensive positioning just manning it with green troops or even NKs while they're able to continue making progress in the east knowing ukraine is having to divert precious resources to kursk.  Maybe there's some 4-D chess going on but frankly I'm not seeing it - if russia were actually concerned about it being a bargaining chip they would just dial back their attacks in the east a bit, move to defensive positioning in a couple areas, and divert serious resources to kursk to kick the Ukrainians out in short order.

Do you have a source for the claim Ukraine needs to "cut their losses"?

"Over six months of fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Russian losses have reached nearly 40,000 personnel, with over 16,000 killed, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Feb. 6."
https://kyivindependent.com/nearly-40-000-russian-troops-lost-in-kursk-oblast-over-six-months-military-says/

I don't trust Russian numbers that claim the troops in Kursk have been killed three times over.

[LennStar]

The whole Kursk thing was really perplexing from the start.  I do not know if Ukraine was really delusional enough to think they were going to militarily make large inroads into russia or whether it was some misguided attempt to gain a bargaining chip.  It's basically turned into a lodestone around their necks though.  Ukraine can't abandon the area and cut their losses because it would be a major PR disaster for them.  And frankly I think the russians are in no hurry to kick them out.  Ukraine stuck having to commit resources to it and effectively opened a second front where russia has the advantage of defensive positioning just manning it with green troops or even NKs while they're able to continue making progress in the east knowing ukraine is having to divert precious resources to kursk.

You are on the wrong road here. Putting aside the political implications and military results of who diverted more troops: Russia is very eager to kick Ukraine out. That is why they called the NKs in. The constant meat waves are also proof.
And it is Ukraine who has the advantage of defense positions. Those positions didn't matter at the start because they were not (effectivly) manned. They often fell without fight. You could argue that Ukraine would have been in better shape to not push that long/far. You could also argue it's Russian villages that are getting destroyed, not Ukrainian ones.

if russia were actually concerned about it being a bargaining chip they would just dial back their attacks in the east a bit, move to defensive positioning in a couple areas, and divert serious resources to kursk to kick the Ukrainians out in short order.

Bargaining chip might have been the intention of Ukraine. And if Trump had dialed up support for Ukraine, who knows?
But it's clear now that Putin still sees himself on the road to success. If he just pushes on. That is what the Russians are doing. That is why they not stop their attacks, nowhere. And they have thrown in serious resources - they have thrown in everything they have, and literally more (ten thousand NK soldiers, millions of NK arti grenades, hundreds of NK long range missiles...)

I think I said it before: Currently Ukraine is losing the war. But Russia is not winning. In this attrition war the one wins who gives up first. Russia, because they run out of nearly everything in roughly a year, or Ukraine because they run out in nearly everything in roughly half a year if US stops help.

[Radagast]

Guess it's up to Europe now. They need to do whatever is necessary (no exaggeration there) to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine at the current level of combat intensity or higher for the indefinite future, while simultaneously drastically increasing their own capabilities. The alternative is that Russia invades Europe in 2027 or 2028 beginning with the Baltics, in coordination with China taking Taiwan. I know Trump never read history, but it's kind of surprising to me that European leaders also don't appear to have read any, or at least somehow came away with the impression that history is only something that happens to other people.

[LennStar]

Guess it's up to Europe now. They need to do whatever is necessary (no exaggeration there) to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine at the current level of combat intensity or higher for the indefinite future, while simultaneously drastically increasing their own capabilities. The alternative is that Russia invades Europe in 2027 or 2028 beginning with the Baltics, in coordination with China taking Taiwan. I know Trump never read history, but it's kind of surprising to me that European leaders also don't appear to have read any, or at least somehow came away with the impression that history is only something that happens to other people.

It's very easy. European assumtion was that Russia will not attack NATO because the US is in there.
The US puts more money into military power projection than the Russian state has budget. Even if EU armies are not strong enough to survive on their own, that was never their goal. Their goal was to hold long enough for the US to arrive (and by that making any war pointless to start).

[GuitarStv]

Guess it's up to Europe now. They need to do whatever is necessary (no exaggeration there) to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine at the current level of combat intensity or higher for the indefinite future, while simultaneously drastically increasing their own capabilities. The alternative is that Russia invades Europe in 2027 or 2028 beginning with the Baltics, in coordination with China taking Taiwan. I know Trump never read history, but it's kind of surprising to me that European leaders also don't appear to have read any, or at least somehow came away with the impression that history is only something that happens to other people.

It's very easy. European assumtion was that Russia will not attack NATO because the US is in there.
The US puts more money into military power projection than the Russian state has budget. Even if EU armies are not strong enough to survive on their own, that was never their goal. Their goal was to hold long enough for the US to arrive (and by that making any war pointless to start).

I've been wondering if Trump will ditch the US's NATO obligations (therefore effectively ending NATO).  Would be a good cost savings for DOGE, and would make his friend Putin happy.

[ChpBstrd]

Guess it's up to Europe now. They need to do whatever is necessary (no exaggeration there) to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine at the current level of combat intensity or higher for the indefinite future, while simultaneously drastically increasing their own capabilities. The alternative is that Russia invades Europe in 2027 or 2028 beginning with the Baltics, in coordination with China taking Taiwan. I know Trump never read history, but it's kind of surprising to me that European leaders also don't appear to have read any, or at least somehow came away with the impression that history is only something that happens to other people.

It's very easy. European assumtion was that Russia will not attack NATO because the US is in there.
The US puts more money into military power projection than the Russian state has budget. Even if EU armies are not strong enough to survive on their own, that was never their goal. Their goal was to hold long enough for the US to arrive (and by that making any war pointless to start).

The relative lack of alarm in European capitals is baffling to me. The U.S. was just taken down by a Russian-aligned movement. Russia is still outspending Europe on defense, while cutting off their energy supplies, doing aggressive surveillance, murdering key people, and sabotaging their telecom and industry. Where will Europe obtain their 6th generation fighters, their cruise missiles, or their AI if the US has been co-opted?

This should be seen as a hair-on-fire geopolitical emergency. Yet Germany is still spending only 1.5% of GDP on defense? Austria can only spare 0.84%? Do the Czechs understand the implications of their 1.5% defense spending, as a former Russian colony? Belgium, really, you can do better than 1.21%.

These countries should be preparing for the fall of Ukraine, a Russian attack shortly thereafter, and the absence of the U.S. from NATO (if not outright sabotage of NATO by the US). The entire continent needs a mandatory service and conscription policy. What the hell are they doing? Is it denial?

[Just Joe]

Is WWIII Russia vs Ukraine (then Baltic States), while China goes after Taiwan and then Iran (and others) vs Israel?

Any one of these seems somewhat manageable but not all at the same time. The USA can't haul everyone's rear out of the fire at the same time, especially with the uncertainty of MAGA politics in office.

These countries should be planning for these emergencies and if they are lucky the USA will assist.

Personally I'd rather see someone end the Ukraine war by ending Putin and/or cronies. Give the Russian citizens a chance to be part of modern democracy. Stay on good business terms with China if possible. Keep Iran on notice.

Saw that Cuban sanctions are being put back into place. If the sanctions haven't brought down Castro and friends in 65 years, why do we think they will in the future? Make peace, help Cuba back onto its feet?

[ChpBstrd]

Is WWIII Russia vs Ukraine (then Baltic States), while China goes after Taiwan and then Iran (and others) vs Israel?

Any one of these seems somewhat manageable but not all at the same time. The USA can't haul everyone's rear out of the fire at the same time, especially with the uncertainty of MAGA politics in office.

These countries should be planning for these emergencies and if they are lucky the USA will assist.

Personally I'd rather see someone end the Ukraine war by ending Putin and/or cronies. Give the Russian citizens a chance to be part of modern democracy. Stay on good business terms with China if possible. Keep Iran on notice.

Saw that Cuban sanctions are being put back into place. If the sanctions haven't brought down Castro and friends in 65 years, why do we think they will in the future? Make peace, help Cuba back onto its feet?

China will invade Taiwan in 2026 or 2027, based on the trajectory of their military buildup. This would be a great time for Russia to either re-invade Ukraine if there was a ceasefire, or pivot to pressuring the Baltics, Moldova, etc. Not only is it unclear whether Trump would defend Taiwanese democracy, but it is also unclear whether Trump would do anything if a ceasefire he negotiated was violated, or if NATO members were threatened or faced hybrid warfare. I'm getting a "let the world burn" vibe personally, but maybe there are still hawkish elements in the Republican Party. Who knows?

Regarding Cuban sanctions... it is to some extent what keeps the regime in business. The opportunity to travel and meet travelers, new sources of word-of-mouth information the regime can't control, the development of a merchant class... all these would be very bad things for the ruling communist party. So communism is safe in isolated Cuba for now. Cuba would, however, make an attractive military target in a future where Chinese communism is hyped as the big threat, the economy is sucking, and a rationale is needed to rally the people and silence the critics.

[GuitarStv]

Is WWIII Russia vs Ukraine (then Baltic States), while China goes after Taiwan and then Iran (and others) vs Israel?

Any one of these seems somewhat manageable but not all at the same time. The USA can't haul everyone's rear out of the fire at the same time, especially with the uncertainty of MAGA politics in office.

These countries should be planning for these emergencies and if they are lucky the USA will assist.

Personally I'd rather see someone end the Ukraine war by ending Putin and/or cronies. Give the Russian citizens a chance to be part of modern democracy. Stay on good business terms with China if possible. Keep Iran on notice.

Saw that Cuban sanctions are being put back into place. If the sanctions haven't brought down Castro and friends in 65 years, why do we think they will in the future? Make peace, help Cuba back onto its feet?

China will invade Taiwan in 2026 or 2027, based on the trajectory of their military buildup. This would be a great time for Russia to either re-invade Ukraine if there was a ceasefire, or pivot to pressuring the Baltics, Moldova, etc. Not only is it unclear whether Trump would defend Taiwanese democracy, but it is also unclear whether Trump would do anything if a ceasefire he negotiated was violated, or if NATO members were threatened or faced hybrid warfare. I'm getting a "let the world burn" vibe personally, but maybe there are still hawkish elements in the Republican Party. Who knows?

Regarding Cuban sanctions... it is to some extent what keeps the regime in business. The opportunity to travel and meet travelers, new sources of word-of-mouth information the regime can't control, the development of a merchant class... all these would be very bad things for the ruling communist party. So communism is safe in isolated Cuba for now. Cuba would, however, make an attractive military target in a future where Chinese communism is hyped as the big threat, the economy is sucking, and a rationale is needed to rally the people and silence the critics.

I don't see anything going on with the Israel vs All-Of-Their-Neighbours-Who-Hate-Them thing.  Israel just massively outguns the combined resistance - richer, better armed, better trained.  If there's anything that The Israel-Hamas war and it's spillover has shown, it's that there exists no real path to resistance of Israel's military actions in the Arab world beyond occasional terror attacks.

[reeshau]

Trump talked today about approaching China and Russia about capping military spending.

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/13/trump-china-russia-military-spending

Perfect setup for them to act as described above.  "Sure, we'll cut spending.  Then you can have your tax breaks.  No, we don't need international inspections, we trust you, Donald!"

Tick, tick, 2027: boom!

[Telecaster]

The whole Kursk thing was really perplexing from the start.  I do not know if Ukraine was really delusional enough to think they were going to militarily make large inroads into russia or whether it was some misguided attempt to gain a bargaining chip.  It's basically turned into a lodestone around their necks though.  Ukraine can't abandon the area and cut their losses because it would be a major PR disaster for them.  And frankly I think the russians are in no hurry to kick them out.  Ukraine stuck having to commit resources to it and effectively opened a second front where russia has the advantage of defensive positioning just manning it with green troops or even NKs while they're able to continue making progress in the east knowing ukraine is having to divert precious resources to kursk.  Maybe there's some 4-D chess going on but frankly I'm not seeing it - if russia were actually concerned about it being a bargaining chip they would just dial back their attacks in the east a bit, move to defensive positioning in a couple areas, and divert serious resources to kursk to kick the Ukrainians out in short order.

Can't disagree more.   Despite what the headlines seem to read, Russia's gains in Ukraine since Ukraine invaded Kursk in August have been tiny.  Warning!  All numbers are approximate.   

Since Ukraine invaded Kursk in August, Russia has captured about 1,000 square miles of Ukraine.  Which is a lot, an area about the size of Rhode Island.  But this includes mostly farmland and no cities or towns of significance, and compared to the size of Ukraine itself is a rounding error.

But of note, since August the rate of Russia's advance has been slowing, and causualties seem to have significantly increased.     To be clear,  just looking at square miles captured and casualties per month is an incomplete view of a how things are actually going on the battlefield.  But we don't have many good proxies, so it will have to do.   

Regardless, those are both positive outcomes for Ukraine.   Another positive outcome is that Russia is being forced to destroy its own towns and villages in order to recapture them. 

Back in August, two primary Russian objectives seemed to be to move into tube artillery range of Kharkiv City and capture the strategic town of Pokrovsk.  Neither of those objectives have been accomplished.   So the results of the Kursk invasion thus far seem to be:  The Russia advance has slowed, Russian casualties have increased, Russia has not achieved strategic objectives, and Ukraine still holds Russian territory as a bargaining chip.   

[sixwings]

Guess it's up to Europe now. They need to do whatever is necessary (no exaggeration there) to keep Russia bogged down in Ukraine at the current level of combat intensity or higher for the indefinite future, while simultaneously drastically increasing their own capabilities. The alternative is that Russia invades Europe in 2027 or 2028 beginning with the Baltics, in coordination with China taking Taiwan. I know Trump never read history, but it's kind of surprising to me that European leaders also don't appear to have read any, or at least somehow came away with the impression that history is only something that happens to other people.

It's very easy. European assumtion was that Russia will not attack NATO because the US is in there.
The US puts more money into military power projection than the Russian state has budget. Even if EU armies are not strong enough to survive on their own, that was never their goal. Their goal was to hold long enough for the US to arrive (and by that making any war pointless to start).

The relative lack of alarm in European capitals is baffling to me. The U.S. was just taken down by a Russian-aligned movement. Russia is still outspending Europe on defense, while cutting off their energy supplies, doing aggressive surveillance, murdering key people, and sabotaging their telecom and industry. Where will Europe obtain their 6th generation fighters, their cruise missiles, or their AI if the US has been co-opted?

This should be seen as a hair-on-fire geopolitical emergency. Yet Germany is still spending only 1.5% of GDP on defense? Austria can only spare 0.84%? Do the Czechs understand the implications of their 1.5% defense spending, as a former Russian colony? Belgium, really, you can do better than 1.21%.

These countries should be preparing for the fall of Ukraine, a Russian attack shortly thereafter, and the absence of the U.S. from NATO (if not outright sabotage of NATO by the US). The entire continent needs a mandatory service and conscription policy. What the hell are they doing? Is it denial?

Russia did get super bogged down in Ukraine and was revealed to be a bit of a paper tiger. Given the problems they've had with Ukraine I'm not sure they would fair particularly well vs a non-US backed NATO.

[LennStar]

These countries should be preparing for the fall of Ukraine, a Russian attack shortly thereafter, and the absence of the U.S. from NATO (if not outright sabotage of NATO by the US). The entire continent needs a mandatory service and conscription policy. What the hell are they doing? Is it denial?

Partly denial. Especially fired by Putins troll army.
But it's also not that easy financially. If you want to build up the actual capacity to produce military stuff, you have to not only put in a few billions today (and remember, we are into 2 successive dramatic economy crashes: Covid and the biggest war in Europe since WWII), but billions every year. The 100 billion Germany put on the table - you can't actually buy stuff with that today. Existing pipelines aren't free until years in many cases. And new factories are only build if several states say they will buy for at least a decade.

Example: Even if Trump yould say here are 100 trillion for the US Navy, you would not get new ships in the next few years. US wharfs are simply not able to build them. You would need to build the facilities, train people, create supply chain... It's actually a big headache for the Navy which thinks about China (which puts out big ships in the dozens in the private sector and increasingly militaryly).

As for 6th generation fighter Europe has actually 2 programs. Last Perun video was about 6th gen fighter production in the world, go to youtube if you want to know more about the procurement and development side. (And look at his other videos, because my answers are basically all from those)

[YttriumNitrate]

But it's also not that easy financially. If you want to build up the actual capacity to produce military stuff, you have to not only put in a few billions today (and remember, we are into 2 successive dramatic economy crashes: Covid and the biggest war in Europe since WWII), but billions every year. The 100 billion Germany put on the table - you can't actually buy stuff with that today. Existing pipelines aren't free until years in many cases. And new factories are only build if several states say they will buy for at least a decade.

Your point would be stronger if the Russian Ukrainian war wasn't entering its fourth year. As an example, Poland started receiving deliveries of Korean tanks back in 2022 after signing a contract in August of 2022.

[zolotiyeruki]

It's also worth reiterating that Russia is depleting their stock of armor rapidly. They recently passed the threshold of 10,000 tanks lost. 10,000. I don't recall off the top of my head how many APCs and trucks and artillery pieces they've lost, but in the last few months, their casualties per tank lost have risen significantly, indicating their attacks are consisting of more men and fewer armor. It's to the point that Ukraine is able to put up barbed wire for defense. Russia's ability to take territory has gradually eroded, and I expect it will continue to deteriorate.

That doesn't mean Ukraine will be able to reclaim Donbas and Crimea, but it does mean that Putin won't be able to take the whole country

[LaineyAZ]

And I think as we all know, you can conquer territory but then you have to occupy it.  (lessons Americans never seem to learn - I remember the bragging about, "Hey, we conquered Iraq!")

If Ukraine has to cede some land in exchange for peace, are the Ukrainians living in that area ever going to accept being under Russian rule?

[GuitarStv]

That doesn't mean Ukraine will be able to reclaim Donbas and Crimea, but it does mean that Putin won't be able to take the whole country

Don't be hasty.  Let's see what Trump promises them at the negotiating table.  I mean, for nothing in return he has already said he would give up Ukraine joining NATO and said Ukraine won't return to it's pre-invasion borders . . . two of the most important things Russia wanted.  Imagine what will happen when Putin actually offers things in return!

[Telecaster]

Don't be hasty.  Let's see what Trump promises them at the negotiating table.  I mean, for nothing in return he has already said he would give up Ukraine joining NATO and said Ukraine won't return to it's pre-invasion borders . . . two of the most important things Russia wanted.  Imagine what will happen when Putin actually offers things in return!

I came to post the same thing!  In addition, Trump has offered that Russia gets back in the G7, and Ukraine gets no security guarantees or aid from the US. 

Putin gets all that and negotiations haven't even begun.   

[LennStar]

But it's also not that easy financially. If you want to build up the actual capacity to produce military stuff, you have to not only put in a few billions today (and remember, we are into 2 successive dramatic economy crashes: Covid and the biggest war in Europe since WWII), but billions every year. The 100 billion Germany put on the table - you can't actually buy stuff with that today. Existing pipelines aren't free until years in many cases. And new factories are only build if several states say they will buy for at least a decade.

Your point would be stronger if the Russian Ukrainian war wasn't entering its fourth year. As an example, Poland started receiving deliveries of Korean tanks back in 2022 after signing a contract in August of 2022.

We were talking about EU capabilities.
If Russia attacks NATO, it will likely be together with China attacking Taiwan and maybe NK attaking South Korea. I don't think SK will have tanks on storage in that case.
(btw. signing the actual delivery contract is often the result of a whole decade, not least including a month-long process in the exporter country, so I am pretty sure the deal was already inofficially cleared and production slated at least a year earlier. SK has gone very hard on the export market in the last years, precisely because they want to have the production capabilites in case of the case.)

[markbike528CBX]

I'm glad I'm not the only one drawing comparisons between Russia and a late thirties regime*.

What If The Allies Declared War In 1938 Over Czechoslovakia? WW2 Would NOT HAPPEN As We Know It
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tY8-pEwHxn4

*Ducking Godwin's Law

[Travis]

US sends request for information to European leaders on what they'll contribute to post-war Ukrainian security.

https://archive.li/ZRKZu

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1890767624457351408

US administration messaging was all over the map this week. Vance and Hegseth said the US wouldn't send troops in a post-war deal, but in another forum Vance said it was still on the table. The US's negotiating team doesn't seem to be speaking with a unified voice either. Witkoff and Kellogg aren't exactly at odds, but depending on the day it's hard to tell who is leading the effort. In one speech they expect Europe to step up and do everything, but in the next they don't actually want them to be part of negotiations - just to accept whatever deal Trump, Putin, and Zelensky come up with.