Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 572907 times)

dang1

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3200 on: March 26, 2023, 10:04:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1639348382819811328?

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1638913309217898500?s=20

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1639619088040198145?t=OqVf1AhhzO37d9V4LcadHQ&s=19

Analysis on Russian armored vehicle manufacturing.

.. the purpose of the T-55s is yet, but sending a couple hundred obsolete vehicles to fill gaps to buy some time for this manufacturing bottleneck is a possibility.

purpose: Ukrainian target practice

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3201 on: March 30, 2023, 12:01:31 PM »
I've been watching videos all week of entire Russian platoons getting mowed down over open fields by MGs, hit by artillery attempting to ford that little river in the middle of the city, or near Adviika getting grenades drone-dropped on them while they were sleeping in the open. It's been a mess for Russia the last couple weeks with armor losses visually just short of 2000 tanks. Russian forces are still taking some ground in Bakhmut, but its being measured by singular buildings now and no major attempts at extending the encirclement. There's rumors that regular Russian units are filling the line because Wagner is spent. In the south near Zap, drones are guiding artillery strikes on C2 vehicles, SAMs, and radars 10km behind the line.
While yes, there is a large amount of material showing the Russians getting destroyed - we should not underestimate them. Not just "quantity has a quality all its own". English speaking media is likely to bias toward showing things favorable to Ukraine, and due to their much greater use of drones with cameras, there's just a lot more Ukrainian success caught on video and shared by Ukraine.

Now, regarding those T-54/55s:

purpose: Ukrainian target practice
Hard disagree. Sure, you absolutely wouldn't want to be in a T-55 in a tank-on-tank firefight with a more modern tank. However, that's a relatively rare scenario. The T-55 is going to be able to shrug off infantry small arms fire, grenades, etc as well as a lot (if not all) of what an older IFV or APC can do. Sure, it's vulnerable to ATGMs like Javelin or TOW, but so are the more modern Russian tanks. T-55 is going to be quite good at the other things tanks are called on to do, like shooting buildings being used as cover/concealment for enemy infantry, indirect fire support and such.

One major advantage of the T-55 is that it uses completely different ammo compared to more modern tanks (100mm rifled). Ammo shortages have been a real problem and T-55 won't be competing with any other Russian tanks for ammo. Ammo was still in development into the 1980s when a APFSDS tungsten carbide penetrator was introduced.

Another advantage is it's less likely to blow up/pop the turret if there is a penetration - something like a T-64 has powder in cardboard tubes. T-55 has it in a brass casing because it's a one-piece shell. The crew at least has a chance of getting out before it blows.

Oh, and Ukraine is using T-55 as well. I ended up doing a bit deeper of a dive on these than I originally intended, so here it is:

Slovenia donated 28 T-55S to Ukraine. Admittedly these are noticeably better than the versions of T54/55 Russia is pulling out of storage. It's a pretty thorough modernization (for the '80s-'90s anyway.) The "S" upgrades included a main gun upgrade (L7 105mm, produced by Britain) which is controlled by new digital ballistic computer driving new stabilized fire control system. With modern ammunition, it can can penetrate a T-72 - plus we have laser detection for smoke grenades, added ERA bricks and an upgraded engine. Modern ammunition is relatively plentiful with multiple active manufacturers. T-55S also has some optics upgrades, with both the gunner and commander having day/night sights (probably no thermal imaging, but that's unclear as Slovenia offered thermal imager upgrades when they were trying to sell them off in 2016) and a laser rangefinder for the gunner. Only the gunner can fire a Russian T-55, in T-55S either gunner or commander can aim and fire.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3202 on: March 30, 2023, 02:24:45 PM »
I've been watching videos all week of entire Russian platoons getting mowed down over open fields by MGs, hit by artillery attempting to ford that little river in the middle of the city, or near Adviika getting grenades drone-dropped on them while they were sleeping in the open. It's been a mess for Russia the last couple weeks with armor losses visually just short of 2000 tanks. Russian forces are still taking some ground in Bakhmut, but its being measured by singular buildings now and no major attempts at extending the encirclement. There's rumors that regular Russian units are filling the line because Wagner is spent. In the south near Zap, drones are guiding artillery strikes on C2 vehicles, SAMs, and radars 10km behind the line.
While yes, there is a large amount of material showing the Russians getting destroyed - we should not underestimate them. Not just "quantity has a quality all its own". English speaking media is likely to bias toward showing things favorable to Ukraine, and due to their much greater use of drones with cameras, there's just a lot more Ukrainian success caught on video and shared by Ukraine.

Now, regarding those T-54/55s:

purpose: Ukrainian target practice
Hard disagree. Sure, you absolutely wouldn't want to be in a T-55 in a tank-on-tank firefight with a more modern tank. However, that's a relatively rare scenario. The T-55 is going to be able to shrug off infantry small arms fire, grenades, etc as well as a lot (if not all) of what an older IFV or APC can do. Sure, it's vulnerable to ATGMs like Javelin or TOW, but so are the more modern Russian tanks. T-55 is going to be quite good at the other things tanks are called on to do, like shooting buildings being used as cover/concealment for enemy infantry, indirect fire support and such.

One major advantage of the T-55 is that it uses completely different ammo compared to more modern tanks (100mm rifled). Ammo shortages have been a real problem and T-55 won't be competing with any other Russian tanks for ammo. Ammo was still in development into the 1980s when a APFSDS tungsten carbide penetrator was introduced.

Another advantage is it's less likely to blow up/pop the turret if there is a penetration - something like a T-64 has powder in cardboard tubes. T-55 has it in a brass casing because it's a one-piece shell. The crew at least has a chance of getting out before it blows.

Oh, and Ukraine is using T-55 as well. I ended up doing a bit deeper of a dive on these than I originally intended, so here it is:

Slovenia donated 28 T-55S to Ukraine. Admittedly these are noticeably better than the versions of T54/55 Russia is pulling out of storage. It's a pretty thorough modernization (for the '80s-'90s anyway.) The "S" upgrades included a main gun upgrade (L7 105mm, produced by Britain) which is controlled by new digital ballistic computer driving new stabilized fire control system. With modern ammunition, it can can penetrate a T-72 - plus we have laser detection for smoke grenades, added ERA bricks and an upgraded engine. Modern ammunition is relatively plentiful with multiple active manufacturers. T-55S also has some optics upgrades, with both the gunner and commander having day/night sights (probably no thermal imaging, but that's unclear as Slovenia offered thermal imager upgrades when they were trying to sell them off in 2016) and a laser rangefinder for the gunner. Only the gunner can fire a Russian T-55, in T-55S either gunner or commander can aim and fire.

Yeh Well - Ukraine is using 100 year old machine guns.  Did you ever wonder what happened to those WW1 guns?

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-maxim-machine-gun-russia/

The Maxim was used in the Boer war.

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3203 on: March 30, 2023, 08:10:10 PM »
For fixed defense (or mounted on a vehicle) the Maxim/Vickers/etc are still an excellent machine gun. Water cooled and overbuilt compared to modern guns - you can just keep firing and firing and firing - just top off the water as needed (urine works in a pinch, just don't use that one to make tea). Modern machine guns just can't keep up with it for extended firing. The main drawback is that the Maxim is heavy to be reasonably hauled by hand for any real distance, of course.

But "throwing lots of lead downrange" is a far cry from the complexity of systems on a modern (or semi-modern) tank.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2023, 08:12:09 PM by TomTX »

Sibley

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3204 on: March 30, 2023, 08:28:45 PM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/

TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3205 on: April 01, 2023, 10:27:44 AM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3206 on: April 01, 2023, 11:08:41 AM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!
It gives the old joke about how close the aggressive Russia put it's borders to our bases even more oomph!

nereo

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3207 on: April 01, 2023, 12:45:04 PM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!
It gives the old joke about how close the aggressive Russia put it's borders to our bases even more oomph!

I don’t get it…

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3208 on: April 02, 2023, 02:10:42 AM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!
It gives the old joke about how close the aggressive Russia put it's borders to our bases even more oomph!

I don’t get it…
Pictures like these

https://8hertzwitness.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/russia-wants-war-look-how-close-they-put-their-country-to-our-military-bases.jpg?w=600

Of course a lot of those bases do not exist or are not NATO or whatever.

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3209 on: April 02, 2023, 05:45:17 AM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!
It gives the old joke about how close the aggressive Russia put it's borders to our bases even more oomph!

I don’t get it…
Pictures like these

https://8hertzwitness.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/russia-wants-war-look-how-close-they-put-their-country-to-our-military-bases.jpg?w=600

Of course a lot of those bases do not exist or are not NATO or whatever.

I'm guessing in a couple years there will be one of those Base symbols on Finland.

Travis

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3210 on: April 04, 2023, 11:32:07 PM »
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3350958/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Latest US package of support to Ukraine. Highlights:

Eight heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers
Armored bridging systems
Trucks to transport heavy equipment
TOW missiles
Tank ammo
Bradley ammo
61 additional heavy fuel tankers
10 trucks and trailer to transport heavy equipment

Some of the items look like duplicates because of they're coming from different funding sources.
Aside from the usual shipments of ammunition, missiles, and shells, this shipment is very heavy on tank and Bradley support. Rumors are rife on the Russian side of social media concerned that a Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent. The attack can go in at least four distinct directions all with their own merits.

nereo

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3211 on: April 05, 2023, 04:44:13 AM »
Finland is another step closer to joining NATO. I'm sure Putin is thrilled. Hopefully the rest of the process goes smoothly.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/turkish-parliament-approves-finlands-nato-accession-2023-03-30/
It's basically a done deal at this point. Just a couple of formalities. Russia just got an additional 800+ miles of border now butting up against NATO!
It gives the old joke about how close the aggressive Russia put it's borders to our bases even more oomph!

I don’t get it…
Pictures like these

https://8hertzwitness.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/russia-wants-war-look-how-close-they-put-their-country-to-our-military-bases.jpg?w=600

Of course a lot of those bases do not exist or are not NATO or whatever.

 maybe it’s a lost in translation thing

FIPurpose

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3212 on: April 05, 2023, 05:52:58 AM »
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1643445349762187269/photo/2

Quote
Russian occupation officials denied #Ukrainian reports that they are preparing plans to evacuate from occupied [southern] regions of #Ukraine. #Russian occupation authorities rarely respond to #Ukrainian claims about evacuations. Russian occupation officials’ denial of civilian evacuations far from the frontline could suggest doubt in Russian forces’ ability to hold occupied territory.

Rumors abound that Russia is a little tense about possibly losing Crimea over this. I would not be surprised if Kremlin at some point abandons Kherson Oblast to re-enforce Crimea and make it look impenetrable.

At some point Putin will have to give up the idea of a land bridge and go back to attempting to maintain 2014 borders.

nereo

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3213 on: April 05, 2023, 06:00:06 AM »

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3214 on: April 05, 2023, 06:57:54 AM »
Pictures like these

https://8hertzwitness.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/russia-wants-war-look-how-close-they-put-their-country-to-our-military-bases.jpg?w=600

Of course a lot of those bases do not exist or are not NATO or whatever.

 maybe it’s a lost in translation thing
It's a joke (or maybe Russian propaganda, but still funny) on the US hawks saying "Look how Russia is a thread to us, they are so aggressive" when Russia has Western bases all around it and is the threatened one.

Or in other words: It's like the US warning about Russian militarism while being the most militaristic country on earth by far. (Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3215 on: April 05, 2023, 07:06:18 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.

LennStar

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3216 on: April 05, 2023, 07:12:02 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.
So why then do you still hold an army capable of beating number 1 and 2 combined? Just look at aircraft carriers, 40% in the whole world belong to the US.
And the last US-Iraq war was famous for the low losses of US material and soldiers. The US could beat 10 of those.

-----

If I had to guess at least at the moment Ukraine does not intend to invade Crimea, but of course they happily accept every bit of work Russia is wasting there.
Once they got the rest of the country back, Crimea is isolated and a lot easier to break open than now. Not to mention that at this point there may be a Russian leader capable of accepting giving it back, whoever that may be. Unlikely but not impossible. 
« Last Edit: April 05, 2023, 07:15:21 AM by LennStar »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3217 on: April 05, 2023, 08:02:35 AM »
...meanwhile, reports show Russia has built an astonishingly large number of defense trenches throughout Crimea in just the past week.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj0u_ir2JL-AhUhkokEHcW7AuoQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fworld%2Finteractive%2F2023%2Fukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches%2F&usg=AOvVaw05Zu1GtdlnM3XdEAYm0eeJ
If/when Ukraine cuts the land bridge, Crimea is toast.  The Russians' only resupply routes will be 1) the Kerch strait, and 2) by ship either from the Sea of Azov or from Novorossisk.  Once Ukraine gets to the 2021 border with Crimea, the Kerch Strait bridge is vulnerable.  Resupply by sea is hard in the best of conditions, and the Sea of Azov is definitely within anti-ship missile range.  That leaves the Black Sea.

maizefolk

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3218 on: April 05, 2023, 08:16:26 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.
So why then do you still hold an army capable of beating number 1 and 2 combined? Just look at aircraft carriers, 40% in the whole world belong to the US.
And the last US-Iraq war was famous for the low losses of US material and soldiers. The US could beat 10 of those.

I'm assuming when you say #1 above you mean China? It's not clear we could win a conventional (e.g. non-nuclear) war against China alone, let alone China and whoever you see in the #2 spot militarily. And obviously no one wins if a way escalates to the exchange of large numbers of nuclear weapons.

In my adult life the forecasts of what happens if-and-when China decides to invade Taiwan by force have shifted from "The US stops them." to "A long and bloody stalemate." to "Would we lose in a week or only a few days?" Now these are the same forecasters who said Ukraine would fall to Russia in days or weeks, so perhaps they are wrong. On the other hand a lot of the weapons the USA promised to our allies in Taiwan have been delayed or diverted to support the Ukrainians so perhaps the situation vis-a-vis China is worse than the forecasters predicted a couple of years ago.

But putting aside what would actually happen in such a way, what I can state definitively is that what you are calling current US military doctrine was indeed doctrine during the cold war, but has not been for decades as we have scaled back investment in our military. Time series US military spending data in a graph below the spoiler tag.

Spoiler: show

sixwings

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3219 on: April 05, 2023, 09:23:17 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.
So why then do you still hold an army capable of beating number 1 and 2 combined? Just look at aircraft carriers, 40% in the whole world belong to the US.
And the last US-Iraq war was famous for the low losses of US material and soldiers. The US could beat 10 of those.


The US military is largely a social program disguised as a military. It plays a pretty large/important role in lifting people out of poverty and giving them opportunities that wouldnt otherwise be available to them. Whether it's an efficient use of money is a different, but dialing back the size of the military without adding similar social opportunities isn't really feasible.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2023, 09:25:57 AM by sixwings »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3220 on: April 05, 2023, 10:04:52 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.
So why then do you still hold an army capable of beating number 1 and 2 combined? Just look at aircraft carriers, 40% in the whole world belong to the US.
And the last US-Iraq war was famous for the low losses of US material and soldiers. The US could beat 10 of those.

-----

If I had to guess at least at the moment Ukraine does not intend to invade Crimea, but of course they happily accept every bit of work Russia is wasting there.
Once they got the rest of the country back, Crimea is isolated and a lot easier to break open than now. Not to mention that at this point there may be a Russian leader capable of accepting giving it back, whoever that may be. Unlikely but not impossible.

Good point!  I guess if the military thing was cut back, Europe would pick up the slack in helping Ukraine, etc.  The German war machine could crank out dozens of Leopard tanks, etc.  It has been said many times that German engineers are the best in the world.  I'd like to see the US have the Socialized health care thing, high speed trains and a lot of other stuff.  If that money was freed from the military, maybe the US could have its own "Belt and Road" initiative and help build needed infrastructure around the world.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3221 on: April 05, 2023, 10:33:23 AM »
(Remember it's US doctrine to be always able to win against number 2 and 3 combined.)

This was officially policy during the cold war. It is no longer the case and hasn't been for a long time.

Since the George W. Bush era several decades ago we've dialed back the official target for our armed forces: Be able to win one war while holding a stalemate in a second war. And even there, that's contemplating countries on the scale of (the former) Iraq or North Korea. Not Chinese or Russian sized militaries.
So why then do you still hold an army capable of beating number 1 and 2 combined? Just look at aircraft carriers, 40% in the whole world belong to the US.
And the last US-Iraq war was famous for the low losses of US material and soldiers. The US could beat 10 of those.


The US military is largely a social program disguised as a military. It plays a pretty large/important role in lifting people out of poverty and giving them opportunities that wouldnt otherwise be available to them. Whether it's an efficient use of money is a different, but dialing back the size of the military without adding similar social opportunities isn't really feasible.

It is more of a federal jobs program than social program. Soldiers, Sailors, Airman, Marines (and now Guardians) make up about 1.3 million but there are even more civilians and full-time contractors. Then if you add in all the indirect jobs (i.e. the entire military-industrial complex) it's easily hundreds of thousands if not millions more.

Here's an excerpt from a 2018 GAO report so the numbers have probably changed a bit since then.
Quote
The Department of Defense (DOD) is one of the largest employers in the federal government with approximately 1.4 million active-duty servicemembers, 813,000 reserve component servicemembers, 762,000 federal civilian full-time equivalent employees,1 and approximately 561,000 contractor full-time equivalent personnel.

It does provide opportunities for some poor people by enlisting but that's a fairly small segment of the force. Right off the bat 75-80% of young people are ineligible due to health, fitness, criminal record, lack of education/low test scores, etc.

rocketpj

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3222 on: April 05, 2023, 03:16:52 PM »

I'm assuming when you say #1 above you mean China? It's not clear we could win a conventional (e.g. non-nuclear) war against China alone, let alone China and whoever you see in the #2 spot militarily. And obviously no one wins if a way escalates to the exchange of large numbers of nuclear weapons.

I don't think anyone could win a conventional war against China, the US, Russia or almost anyone on their own soil.  The US couldn't even 'win' a war in Iraq or Afghanistan despite massive expense.  'Conquering' Russia or China would involve massive occupation forces and a lot of brutality, and still be 100% certain to fail.  Nobody has successfully conquered either place since the Mongols.

Modern weapon and communications technology means it is almost impossible to occupy somewhere unless you are willing to be utterly monstrously brutal - and even then you will probably fail (the Nazis never pacified Ukraine successfully either, and they were industrially monstrous).

The same rules apply if China or Russia try to invade anywhere.  The US couldn't beat them by conquering their countries, but they could certainly 'beat' them by preventing them from succeeding in their invasion.  We are watching an example of this every day.


TomTX

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3223 on: April 05, 2023, 06:32:36 PM »
...meanwhile, reports show Russia has built an astonishingly large number of defense trenches throughout Crimea in just the past week.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj0u_ir2JL-AhUhkokEHcW7AuoQFnoECA0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fworld%2Finteractive%2F2023%2Fukraine-russia-crimea-battle-trenches%2F&usg=AOvVaw05Zu1GtdlnM3XdEAYm0eeJ
Digging massive lines of beach trenches to defend against an enemy with effectively no Navy or ability to perform a meaningful amphibious landing is pretty damn special, even for Russia. I guess someone is buying dachas with the proceeds....

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3224 on: April 06, 2023, 12:17:23 AM »

Good point!  I guess if the military thing was cut back, Europe would pick up the slack in helping Ukraine, etc.  The German war machine could crank out dozens of Leopard tanks, etc.
Europe is not slacking. It's just paying in different things than just tanks which they don't have (and no, tripling the production rate is not something you can do at a moments notice). Like housing refugees, 10% of income more into energy costs...

edit: I just stumbled upon a counting that the Netherlands people (not the government etc.) have donated 10,57€ per head for Ukraine help to a group of organizations. So that's not even everything.
To compare, for the US that would be more than 3,5 billion dollar in private donations. Who is slacking? ;)
« Last Edit: April 06, 2023, 05:30:08 AM by LennStar »

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3225 on: April 06, 2023, 09:16:51 AM »

Good point!  I guess if the military thing was cut back, Europe would pick up the slack in helping Ukraine, etc.  The German war machine could crank out dozens of Leopard tanks, etc.
Europe is not slacking. It's just paying in different things than just tanks which they don't have (and no, tripling the production rate is not something you can do at a moments notice). Like housing refugees, 10% of income more into energy costs...

edit: I just stumbled upon a counting that the Netherlands people (not the government etc.) have donated 10,57€ per head for Ukraine help to a group of organizations. So that's not even everything.
To compare, for the US that would be more than 3,5 billion dollar in private donations. Who is slacking? ;)

You are right.  Europeans aren't slackers.  I know.  it takes one to know one.  I look at  what Estonia has done and just say, "Wow!"  With all the aid that Ukraine receives from the world, there have to be days where Putin says a lot more than "oops."

Every day I see a video where some country, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Slovakia, etc is donating armaments to Ukraine.  It is a united effort.  The humanitarian efforts don't receive nearly the press that the donations for death receive.

What's today's count?

Reported losses of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 176,630.

Reported wounded of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 529,890.

You would think Putin would be looking for some sort of diplomatic end to this.

nereo

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3226 on: April 06, 2023, 11:15:33 AM »
I’m t would be nice if Putin would “declare victory and go home”.
Maybe: “there is no longer a threat of Nazis in Ukraine!”

Doubt it will happen though.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3227 on: April 06, 2023, 11:28:13 AM »
What's today's count?

Reported losses of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 176,630.

Reported wounded of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 529,890.

You would think Putin would be looking for some sort of diplomatic end to this.

I'm pretty skeptical of those numbers, they seem to be mostly propaganda.    The last I saw, the US and UK estimate about 200,000 total Russian causalities (killed and wounded).    Which is still a very large number, but it is mostly poor people from ethnic minorities.  Putin doesn't care about those people.   

pecunia

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3228 on: April 06, 2023, 01:57:44 PM »
What's today's count?

Reported losses of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 176,630.

Reported wounded of Russian soldiers in the "Special Military Operation" are 529,890.

You would think Putin would be looking for some sort of diplomatic end to this.

I'm pretty skeptical of those numbers, they seem to be mostly propaganda.    The last I saw, the US and UK estimate about 200,000 total Russian causalities (killed and wounded).    Which is still a very large number, but it is mostly poor people from ethnic minorities.  Putin doesn't care about those people.

The numbers are reported by the Ukrainians.  They are the people doing the actual fighting and dying.

https://www.minusrus.com/en

Their other numbers such as tanks, etc have been verified by independent sources so I think the body count may be accurate too  You've got to hand it too the Russian propagandists.  They've been able to keep the atrocities and the enormous deaths from being know within the Russian population.  I guess they learned a thing or two back in Stalin's day when he killed millions.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3229 on: April 06, 2023, 02:15:04 PM »
Sooner or later I would expect that people will notice when their sons, husbands, father or friend just doesn’t come back from the “special military exercises”.

Are there any significant number of women fighting on the Russian side? I can’t say I’ve heard anything about female Russian soldiers

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3230 on: April 06, 2023, 08:10:02 PM »
I can’t say I’ve heard anything about female Russian soldiers

Russian women stay in the rear doing admin work. They constitute 1% of the Russian military and are barred from most specialties. One Russian female soldier is known to have been killed in Ukraine back in July.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3231 on: April 06, 2023, 11:41:37 PM »
I can’t say I’ve heard anything about female Russian soldiers

Russian women stay in the rear doing admin work. They constitute 1% of the Russian military and are barred from most specialties. One Russian female soldier is known to have been killed in Ukraine back in July.
It's bad enough to be a male in the Russian military, even if you are one of those shooting at your guys if they retreat instead of those forced to attack or be shot by "comrades". But you certainly don't want to be a women in the Russian army!

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3232 on: April 06, 2023, 11:53:10 PM »
The numbers are reported by the Ukrainians.  They are the people doing the actual fighting and dying.

https://www.minusrus.com/en

Their other numbers such as tanks, etc have been verified by independent sources so I think the body count may be accurate too  You've got to hand it too the Russian propagandists.  They've been able to keep the atrocities and the enormous deaths from being know within the Russian population.  I guess they learned a thing or two back in Stalin's day when he killed millions.

In the Battle of Britain, RAF pilots claimed to have shot down about three times more Luftwaffe planes than were actually lost.  High command knew this from Ultra intercepts and simply counting crashes but the claims were allowed to stand for propaganda and morale purposes.  Luftwaffe pilots also overclaimed their victories by a similar amount.  This is a very common phenomenon with a number of good explanations.

Oryx independently verifies equipment losses on both sides.  They estimate Russia has lost 1924 tanks to all causes, verses the official count of 3631--almost double.   Similarly, there are 81 confirmed Russian helicopter losses vs. 292 claimed.   

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html




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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3233 on: April 07, 2023, 05:18:28 AM »
Orxy numbers are those confirmed by photo or video. It is not suprising that the actual number is higher.

From what I found the Ukrainian numbers are surprisingly correct. Propbably optimistic, but very likely close to actual losses.

That is wa far cry from the Russians who, according to their numbers, have already shot down more planes the Ukraine ever had and killed about every tank they ever had too. Oh, and killed about 3/4 of all mobilized soldiers.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3234 on: April 07, 2023, 06:15:14 AM »
From what I found the Ukrainian numbers are surprisingly correct. Propbably optimistic, but very likely close to actual losses.

How are you verifying the Ukrainian numbers?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3235 on: April 07, 2023, 09:18:55 AM »
From what I found the Ukrainian numbers are surprisingly correct. Propbably optimistic, but very likely close to actual losses.

How are you verifying the Ukrainian numbers?
For example with the Oryx ones, which are the best proof you can find. And then there are other countrie's estimates.

So far Ukraine has been very constant in their ratio to the Oryx numbers (if you keep in mind the actual action - it's more likely to get photos from tank wrecks of the failed storm on Kyiv for example) and to the numbers of other countries.
So either they have been lying (a bit) based on Oryx and getting nearly everyone in The West (including retired military personal) to go with them, or they are actually providing their real best estimates.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3236 on: April 07, 2023, 10:55:21 AM »
From what I found the Ukrainian numbers are surprisingly correct. Propbably optimistic, but very likely close to actual losses.

How are you verifying the Ukrainian numbers?
For example with the Oryx ones, which are the best proof you can find. And then there are other countrie's estimates.

So far Ukraine has been very constant in their ratio to the Oryx numbers (if you keep in mind the actual action - it's more likely to get photos from tank wrecks of the failed storm on Kyiv for example) and to the numbers of other countries.
So either they have been lying (a bit) based on Oryx and getting nearly everyone in The West (including retired military personal) to go with them, or they are actually providing their real best estimates.

I'm sure there is more equipment destroyed than Oryx has recorded, but with the huge number of photos and videos coming out there is no way it's anywhere close to what Ukraine is claiming (i.e. 2-3x). Maybe it's additional 20-30%, but not double.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3237 on: April 07, 2023, 12:34:39 PM »
Well, if you think there are a bunch of Ukranians 20km in Russian territory that have nothing better to do than take pictures of destroyed tanks, that is your right.

We will likely never know, and certainly not during the war. But "only" a factor of 2 would actually be a surprise to many military people.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3238 on: April 07, 2023, 12:47:22 PM »
Well, if you think there are a bunch of Ukranians 20km in Russian territory that have nothing better to do than take pictures of destroyed tanks, that is your right.

We will likely never know, and certainly not during the war. But "only" a factor of 2 would actually be a surprise to many military people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html

From the article: Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000. That toll, in just 11 months, is eight times higher than American casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan.

Ukraine puts the number of Russian dead up to today as 177,110.

Dead men tell no tales.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3239 on: April 07, 2023, 04:39:34 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc&ab_channel=CovertCabal

Covert Cabal did a six month update on his analysis of Russian tanks in storage. TL:DW - last year he thought Russia's alleged 10k tanks in storage was more like 6k with half being restorable. He now thinks it is closer to 2k left that can be restored (with acknowledged margins of error). I've read Russian-speaking sources come up with a similar prediction recently.




There's a story going around this week that classified NATO reports were leaked about Ukraine to include examples of the documents. It's your choice to look for them, but I won't link them here.

Putting on my DoD Security Manager hat - if you're a US government employee or a security clearance holder - downloading or reposting classified information that has found its way to the public domain is still mishandling classified information.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3240 on: April 07, 2023, 08:34:45 PM »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3241 on: April 07, 2023, 11:38:43 PM »

I'm assuming when you say #1 above you mean China? It's not clear we could win a conventional (e.g. non-nuclear) war against China alone, let alone China and whoever you see in the #2 spot militarily. And obviously no one wins if a way escalates to the exchange of large numbers of nuclear weapons.

I don't think anyone could win a conventional war against China, the US, Russia or almost anyone on their own soil.  The US couldn't even 'win' a war in Iraq or Afghanistan despite massive expense.  'Conquering' Russia or China would involve massive occupation forces and a lot of brutality, and still be 100% certain to fail.  Nobody has successfully conquered either place since the Mongols.

Modern weapon and communications technology means it is almost impossible to occupy somewhere unless you are willing to be utterly monstrously brutal - and even then you will probably fail (the Nazis never pacified Ukraine successfully either, and they were industrially monstrous).

The same rules apply if China or Russia try to invade anywhere.  The US couldn't beat them by conquering their countries, but they could certainly 'beat' them by preventing them from succeeding in their invasion.  We are watching an example of this every day.

The USA could absolutely win a conventional war against any of those countries.

The problem is no war nowadays can really be a conventional war. This goes for all countries.

The numbers are reported by the Ukrainians.  They are the people doing the actual fighting and dying.

https://www.minusrus.com/en

Their other numbers such as tanks, etc have been verified by independent sources so I think the body count may be accurate too  You've got to hand it too the Russian propagandists.  They've been able to keep the atrocities and the enormous deaths from being know within the Russian population.  I guess they learned a thing or two back in Stalin's day when he killed millions.

In the Battle of Britain, RAF pilots claimed to have shot down about three times more Luftwaffe planes than were actually lost.  High command knew this from Ultra intercepts and simply counting crashes but the claims were allowed to stand for propaganda and morale purposes.  Luftwaffe pilots also overclaimed their victories by a similar amount.  This is a very common phenomenon with a number of good explanations.

Oryx independently verifies equipment losses on both sides.  They estimate Russia has lost 1924 tanks to all causes, verses the official count of 3631--almost double.   Similarly, there are 81 confirmed Russian helicopter losses vs. 292 claimed.   

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

It's worth pointing out how much easier this is for Ukraine to verify in most cases (as well as Russia, in theory) due to the increases in technology than it was in 1940.

I suspect Ukraine has immensely precise intelligence data surrounding the war so far, particularly for larger items like tanks/helicopters/planes/etc. My guess is quite a few US DoD folks spend a lot of time pouring over intel to do this, too.

Whether or not this is accurately reflected in the published stats is anyone's guess, though. There's propaganda reasons for everyone in this war, too.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3242 on: April 08, 2023, 09:50:36 AM »

I'm assuming when you say #1 above you mean China? It's not clear we could win a conventional (e.g. non-nuclear) war against China alone, let alone China and whoever you see in the #2 spot militarily. And obviously no one wins if a way escalates to the exchange of large numbers of nuclear weapons.

I don't think anyone could win a conventional war against China, the US, Russia or almost anyone on their own soil.  The US couldn't even 'win' a war in Iraq or Afghanistan despite massive expense.  'Conquering' Russia or China would involve massive occupation forces and a lot of brutality, and still be 100% certain to fail.  Nobody has successfully conquered either place since the Mongols.

Modern weapon and communications technology means it is almost impossible to occupy somewhere unless you are willing to be utterly monstrously brutal - and even then you will probably fail (the Nazis never pacified Ukraine successfully either, and they were industrially monstrous).

The same rules apply if China or Russia try to invade anywhere.  The US couldn't beat them by conquering their countries, but they could certainly 'beat' them by preventing them from succeeding in their invasion.  We are watching an example of this every day.

The USA could absolutely win a conventional war against any of those countries.

The problem is no war nowadays can really be a conventional war. This goes for all countries.

The numbers are reported by the Ukrainians.  They are the people doing the actual fighting and dying.

https://www.minusrus.com/en

Their other numbers such as tanks, etc have been verified by independent sources so I think the body count may be accurate too  You've got to hand it too the Russian propagandists.  They've been able to keep the atrocities and the enormous deaths from being know within the Russian population.  I guess they learned a thing or two back in Stalin's day when he killed millions.

In the Battle of Britain, RAF pilots claimed to have shot down about three times more Luftwaffe planes than were actually lost.  High command knew this from Ultra intercepts and simply counting crashes but the claims were allowed to stand for propaganda and morale purposes.  Luftwaffe pilots also overclaimed their victories by a similar amount.  This is a very common phenomenon with a number of good explanations.

Oryx independently verifies equipment losses on both sides.  They estimate Russia has lost 1924 tanks to all causes, verses the official count of 3631--almost double.   Similarly, there are 81 confirmed Russian helicopter losses vs. 292 claimed.   

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

It's worth pointing out how much easier this is for Ukraine to verify in most cases (as well as Russia, in theory) due to the increases in technology than it was in 1940.

I suspect Ukraine has immensely precise intelligence data surrounding the war so far, particularly for larger items like tanks/helicopters/planes/etc. My guess is quite a few US DoD folks spend a lot of time pouring over intel to do this, too.

Whether or not this is accurately reflected in the published stats is anyone's guess, though. There's propaganda reasons for everyone in this war, too.

This Danish guy goes over the numbers quite well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8mTWexL8bs

This is just an example of my weird thinking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plsrmXJFuLk

Like any war the guys in charge are sending young men to die.  In 20 years much of it will be forgotten.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3243 on: April 09, 2023, 09:42:16 AM »
More details on the (apparent) leak:

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/07/1168581824/the-pentagon-is-investigating-leaks-of-top-secret-documents-on-the-war-in-ukrain

So . . . if I'm reading this right, it sounds like it's not really a document leak per se.  The documents were altered from the originals in order to present Russia in a much better light, so it sounds a lot more like espionage/misinformation?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3244 on: April 09, 2023, 10:29:14 AM »
More details on the (apparent) leak:

https://www.npr.org/2023/04/07/1168581824/the-pentagon-is-investigating-leaks-of-top-secret-documents-on-the-war-in-ukrain

So . . . if I'm reading this right, it sounds like it's not really a document leak per se.  The documents were altered from the originals in order to present Russia in a much better light, so it sounds a lot more like espionage/misinformation?
Well, not exactly. The actual "leak" apparently happened months ago, and may be genuine.

The most recent version from Russian sources is taking the documents originally leaked months ago and doing a rather bad/obvious job of changing numbers on them for rather obvious propaganda purposes.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3245 on: April 10, 2023, 03:42:56 PM »
Putting on my DoD Security Manager hat - if you're a US government employee or a security clearance holder - downloading or reposting classified information that has found its way to the public domain is still mishandling classified information.
Thanks for the reminder!

When I read the news, I do try and also look at the source material as much as possible.  I'll break that habit in this instance.

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3246 on: April 15, 2023, 11:04:58 AM »
So the leaker was arrested by the FBI this week. A junior Airman with the National Guard who provided network support to an intelligence center. From what I've gathered in various sources:

-He printed off and took home up to 300 pages of documents that covered a wide range of operations, not just Ukraine
-He posted them to a Discord he was in where the primary discussions were video games and racism
-His motivation so far appears to have been seeking street cred or validation from the mostly teenage population he was communicating with
-He was uncovered by a combination of: teenage Discord member getting discovered, interviewed, and flipped on him; signing up for the Discord with his real email address and credit card; and cross referencing with his other social media accounts which matched his name and the interior of his home that was visible in some of the leaked photos
-He faces up to 10 years in federal prison per document under the Espionage Act
-How exactly he knew where to find these documents and nobody saw him printing them off and walking out the door on multiple occasions is the DoD's next problem. He would have had access as a system administrator and if the files were in a Sharepoint that was well known he could just download them if the owner didn't bother to lock them down. The nature of many of the documents suggest they were daily reports read by thousands. Or he could have been looking over the shoulder of whoever was supposed to be reading them and taking notes for later. His chain of command and security managers are going to have a lot of explaining to do in the coming days

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3247 on: April 15, 2023, 11:25:09 AM »
In other news, an additional two battalions of self-propelled artillery on their way to Ukraine. One battalion of M109s (tracked and armored) from Italy and the other Caesars (wheeled) from Denmark.

https://twitter.com/Mr_ATACMS/status/1647154737266016258?t=GUzPMcuYuhe6GXZcAvKq7A&s=19

https://www.fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2023/ukrainske-soldater-er-nu-uddannet-til-at-bruge-artillerisystem/

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3248 on: April 15, 2023, 03:27:43 PM »
So the leaker was arrested by the FBI this week. A junior Airman with the National Guard who provided network support to an intelligence center. From what I've ..

“It sounds as if it was too easy for too many people to get a high-security clearance and then have access to things they did not need to know,” Charles Stevenson, a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Semafor.
Stevenson said that the U.S. government needs to rethink how broadly access should be given to employees, and, notably, how much training is needed to “maintain secrecy.”
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/14/2023/how-did-jack-teixeira-have-access-to-classified-pentagon-documents

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #3249 on: April 15, 2023, 04:48:48 PM »
So the leaker was arrested by the FBI this week. A junior Airman with the National Guard who provided network support to an intelligence center. From what I've ..

“It sounds as if it was too easy for too many people to get a high-security clearance and then have access to things they did not need to know,” Charles Stevenson, a professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Semafor.
Stevenson said that the U.S. government needs to rethink how broadly access should be given to employees, and, notably, how much training is needed to “maintain secrecy.”
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/14/2023/how-did-jack-teixeira-have-access-to-classified-pentagon-documents

Just a few years ago, the same think tanks were accusing the DoD of over-classifying everything. We can definitely do a lot better at managing things like portal and folder permissions. There's going to be a handful of investigations related to this, so we'll learn exactly how he found those documents eventually.