Author Topic: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars  (Read 27427 times)

Christof

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 717
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Germany
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #150 on: January 19, 2018, 06:02:09 PM »
It really depends on who is introducing autonomous cars.. You need a critical mass. You are right if people are either choosing to own a car or if car sharing is split across many different companies. If, however, there are a few global or important companies for ride sharing at a price that is competitive, it mght be sufficient that those in their 20ties and 30ties are interested, to get a critical mass.

Just Joe

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6720
  • Location: In the middle....
  • Teach me something.
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #151 on: January 20, 2018, 11:21:26 AM »
I'll be happy to have a self-driving car when I'm really old and unable to drive.

Yankuba

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1356
  • Location: Long Island, NY
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #152 on: January 20, 2018, 03:52:45 PM »
Heh. My wife *hates* being a passenger in a car. (Not because of my driving, I'm a very good driver, clean record, honest!) I always let her drive, when we're together, because making her ride, without the steering wheel in her hands and the pedals at her feet, is just too obviously cruel. I'm all enthusiastic about autonomous vehicles, but I don't know if you'll ever get her into one. You'll probably have to get our generation into the grave before you can complete the transition.

I could have written this word for word. I only get to drive if it has been a long day and we’re far from home and my wife is more tired than me. Otherwise, my wife does all the driving and my friends mock me for it. Since I take public transportation to and from work and we are a one car family there are months where I only drive the car once.

Yankuba

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1356
  • Location: Long Island, NY

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23128
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #154 on: January 23, 2018, 10:50:24 AM »
Oh yeah - you are correct. I am very familiar with the mechanical differences. Still - computers. Computers fail. Computers get hung up. No big deal with netflix crashes. It is a big deal when the family hauler crashes because a computer gets stuck and the car fails to make a curve.

Control software for vehicles is engineered to much more exacting standards compared to something like the Netflix client. Commercial airplanes have been fly-by-wire, i.e. completely dependant on computers, for many years now. Many cars already make use of certain drive-by-wire functions, such as brake-by-wire...your life already depends on the reliability of computers more than you realize :)

Computer failures always happen.  We design expecting them.  That's why the concept of 'failing-safe' is so vital.  A train's default state in a fail-safe system is to emergency brake.  It has to constantly get a signal from the computer to release the brake.  If the control computer (typically this is actually a group of three control computers where decisions are made by majority vote to minimize errors) goes down, the train will immediately EB for example.

scottish

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2716
  • Location: Ottawa
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #155 on: January 23, 2018, 05:30:38 PM »
There's a government agency responsible for vehicular safety requirements (ABS, for example).   Have they said anything yet?

Just Joe

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6720
  • Location: In the middle....
  • Teach me something.
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #156 on: January 24, 2018, 09:01:15 AM »
NHTSA?

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #157 on: January 30, 2018, 01:17:40 PM »
And it begins.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/30/waymo-thousands-chrysler-pacifica-minivans/

1,000 cars this year. And i'd predict self driving cars to increase by a factor of 10 each year until we reach global market saturation:
10,000 cars in 2019
100,000 cars in 2020
1,000,000 cars in 2021
10,000,000 cars in 2022
100,000,000 cars in 2023

Hash Brown

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 213
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #158 on: January 30, 2018, 03:34:16 PM »
^As usual, a short article.  No footage.  No proof of a contract.  Looks like fake news that aims to boost stock prices. 

Level 4 cars will be shut down during very minor rainfall and snow.  Bugs on the sensors?  Shut 'er down. 

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #159 on: January 30, 2018, 05:28:05 PM »
LIDAR (what Waymo use) can already function in rain and snow.

Did you check the source linked in that article? Direct from Fiat Chrysler
http://media.fcanorthamerica.com/newsrelease.do?id=18804&mid=1

There's even a video for you at the source ;)

This is in addition to the existing fleet that you can see running today.

Hash Brown

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 213
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #160 on: January 30, 2018, 09:09:53 PM »
No, they can't operate in the rain in snow:
https://medium.com/@parismarx/despite-the-hype-ces-showed-driverless-cars-still-need-work-58103ec0f122

Level 4 also can't merge onto expressways, so there aren't many places to go other than to putter around a downtown or university area. 

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #161 on: January 31, 2018, 01:33:03 AM »
And no reference to which manufactures can't operate in rain or snow from that article.

I know the leaf was one of them that was sidelined, but it's running simple lane assist/follow.

FINate

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3114
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #162 on: February 21, 2018, 11:07:49 AM »
RE concerns I often hear/read about people trying to mess with/confuse AVs: https://xkcd.com/1958/

Luke Warm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 799
  • Location: Ain't no time to wonder why

AlanStache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3175
  • Age: 44
  • Location: South East Virginia
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #164 on: February 21, 2018, 01:09:17 PM »
Did the bikes to in front of the car to trigger the autobrake system or was it triggered by bikes behind the car?  I am having trouble seeing the benefit of an automated system proactively braking before being rear-ended.

Luke Warm

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 799
  • Location: Ain't no time to wonder why
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #165 on: February 21, 2018, 02:35:05 PM »
Did the bikes to in front of the car to trigger the autobrake system or was it triggered by bikes behind the car?  I am having trouble seeing the benefit of an automated system proactively braking before being rear-ended.

the bikes in front of the car triggered the car's brakes and cavendish was on a bike behind the car. this happened during a race so maybe not a real life issue. but still...

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 23128
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #166 on: February 23, 2018, 07:33:42 AM »
i saw this today:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/abu-dhabi-tour-organisers-blame-automatic-brake-sensor-for-cavendish-crash/

This is not a problem with self-driving cars really.  If the driver had dabbed the brakes a tad too hard the same result would have happened.
 In the real world if you're tailing a car on your bike and you're so close that the vehicle braking at all will cause you to crash . . . you're cycling unsafely.  Back the fuck off.  Drivers are unpredictable.

gooki

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2917
  • Location: NZ
    • My FIRE journal
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #167 on: June 15, 2018, 04:45:01 AM »
And it begins.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/30/waymo-thousands-chrysler-pacifica-minivans/

1,000 cars this year. And i'd predict self driving cars to increase by a factor of 10 each year until we reach global market saturation:
10,000 cars in 2019
100,000 cars in 2020
1,000,000 cars in 2021
10,000,000 cars in 2022
100,000,000 cars in 2023

The 10 X factor ramp up is well under way at Wamo.
2016: 100 cars
2017: 500 cars
2018: 6,000 cars
2019/2020: 80,000 cars (60,000 Chrysler, 20,000 Jaguar)


Sources

http://media.fcanorthamerica.com/newsrelease.do?id=18804&mid=1

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-waymo/waymo-to-get-more-than-60000-cars-from-fiat-chrysler-for-robotaxis-idUSKCN1IW2BC

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/waymo-and-jaguar-team-up-with-20-000-car-self-driving-fleet

This is going to be a fun race to watch.

Chris22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3770
  • Location: Chicago NW Suburbs
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #168 on: June 15, 2018, 07:25:04 AM »
I see a possible future state where all cars are autonomous. I see no way to get through the intermediate state where there is a mix, some autonomous some not. Human drivers are yet too unpredictable to build a model to react to. I do look forward to bullying autonomous cars; “oh look there’s a Nissan Leaf, I know I can just pull out in front of it and it will stop and I can cut in line” that sort of thing.

Nicholas Carter

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 145
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #169 on: June 15, 2018, 09:38:00 AM »
Like in the average US school? Tell me, if I'm wrong (I'm from Germany, so I don't have practical experience), but isn't this done by finishing school at different times per grade, have everyone queue on the street instead of a parking lot and discourage other means by letting those wait till the end that want to walk home on their own.
In my experience as a school worker: you have the children queue for an hour and a half, because no one cares about wasting children's time and I'm paid by the hour.

Am I the only one who works for a company that lets everyone get stuff delivered to work?  we get 1 personal package per 5 to 10  employees most days.  is really not disruptive.  Only problem we might have in future is if we start getting one off deliveries all day long from the amazon direct delivery contractors.  I know this is not a universal solution but cant it be the norm?
I, for one, work in a prison. Before that I worked in a university (no office) and a middle school. At none of these places would it have been feasible (theft risk, number of employees, lack of a 'front office') to store deliveries at my work space.  Furthermore, I wouldn't have had anywhere to keep the package if it was brought to me.

How are they going to handle snow?  Sure most will have winter tires, at least in this neck of the wood, but I find you need the right touch now and then in bad conditions. 
Related: I order my AV to keep the meter running, I'll only be about 15 minutes. In that time, a couple of inches of snow fall. Now the car is stuck in the snow! It's tires spin uselessly w/o traction How will the car be freed? It is not my car, not my responsibility to dig it out, and besides, if the car does not come with it's own sand and shovel, what could I do about it?

I feel very different from you. I think it will be relaxing. Especially knowing that many of the other cars on the highway are also driven by computers, not human drivers checking their phones, rushing to get somewhere, yelling at their kid in the backseat, etc. There are so many accidents every year caused by human error. I'm not delusional enough to think I can outperform a computer.
I think we're referring here to the transitional phase where your choice is to drive yourself or be driven knowing that every other car on the road is being driven by humans. Call it fall of next year: if AV's aren't able to interpret human being's terrible driving in practice as well as other, terrible, human drivers, then no one will want to ride one. Meaning that the terrible drivers will keep right on driving, meaning no one will want to ride one. Meaning...

When you’re on a bus, you are not looking at the road ahead judging every decision the driver makes. The hurdle for some will be trusting the computer the same way you trust a human.
The primary objection of many of the drivers I know to public transportation now (i.e. the reason they won't ride buses) is that they aren't driving the bus, and do spend the whole ride "judging every decision the driver makes". These are the people who will insist on driving their own cars right up until the bitter end.

Technician will show up with a new control module. Out with old, in with new, good to go.
Error code 503: Vehicle bricked while taking curve, now in thousands of pieces.
Error code 504: Family of five inside vehicle also in thousands of pieces.

It would be cool to have the seats facing each other so you could interact more easily with the others in the car instead of everyone facing the front. Also having reclining chairs so you can nap. Or swivel chairs, so you can see in any direction, although that might be risky in case of a crash. Without a human driver, there are so many possibilities!
This was tried in the 50's. I'm told the problem is that sitting at any kind of an angle except facing straight forwards gives motion sickness to people who don't normally get car sick.


dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #170 on: June 15, 2018, 11:04:09 AM »
I see a possible future state where all cars are autonomous. I see no way to get through the intermediate state where there is a mix, some autonomous some not. Human drivers are yet too unpredictable to build a model to react to. I do look forward to bullying autonomous cars; “oh look there’s a Nissan Leaf, I know I can just pull out in front of it and it will stop and I can cut in line” that sort of thing.

Autonomous vehicles will have the advantage of being able to react quicker which means they can safely follow closer and keep from letting you in. 

But playing chicken with human drivers is probably the biggest challenge for autonomous vehicles. 

acroy

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1697
  • Age: 46
  • Location: Dallas TX
    • SWAMI
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #171 on: June 15, 2018, 11:09:41 AM »

Chris22

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3770
  • Location: Chicago NW Suburbs
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #172 on: June 15, 2018, 12:15:29 PM »
I see a possible future state where all cars are autonomous. I see no way to get through the intermediate state where there is a mix, some autonomous some not. Human drivers are yet too unpredictable to build a model to react to. I do look forward to bullying autonomous cars; “oh look there’s a Nissan Leaf, I know I can just pull out in front of it and it will stop and I can cut in line” that sort of thing.

Autonomous vehicles will have the advantage of being able to react quicker which means they can safely follow closer and keep from letting you in. 

But playing chicken with human drivers is probably the biggest challenge for autonomous vehicles.

I'm talking things like 4 way stops. 

dougules

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2899
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #173 on: June 15, 2018, 03:34:14 PM »
I see a possible future state where all cars are autonomous. I see no way to get through the intermediate state where there is a mix, some autonomous some not. Human drivers are yet too unpredictable to build a model to react to. I do look forward to bullying autonomous cars; “oh look there’s a Nissan Leaf, I know I can just pull out in front of it and it will stop and I can cut in line” that sort of thing.

Autonomous vehicles will have the advantage of being able to react quicker which means they can safely follow closer and keep from letting you in. 

But playing chicken with human drivers is probably the biggest challenge for autonomous vehicles.

I'm talking things like 4 way stops.

There are human drivers you can do that with too.

Mon€yp€nny

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 74
Re: The Logistics of Self-Driving Cars
« Reply #174 on: June 28, 2018, 11:00:52 AM »
I have often thought about this. I think some people willl want to own their vehicle (no need to take everything out, design choosen for own needs and wants and status), others might use shared vehicles.
I know there are ideas to connect vehicles as trains to save energy and time. Vehicles can connect and disconnect from the train automatically. The vehicles need to be able to drive on any road on the map.
I see vehicals with front seats able to make a 180 turn, with a table in between, you can have a meeting, work, play, eat, study, etc. Some cars will change into a bed, or bed on one side, table and seat on the other.  The sleeping modus will only be available when the car is in an automated route system, connecting and disconnecting to the 'trains'. When the car needs a driver, the seats should be up and the seat belts on.
I can see different companies having different vehicles on the road. Just like we choose our mobile phone now, we will choose a transportation supplier and some will have budget, basic, extra and deluxe vehicles to choose from. I also think there will be different rates for the speed. Don't mind being in a car a bit longer? Take the easy rate. Time is money? Take the express rate. The idea of a smart grid with different rates.