Author Topic: The Election Results Thread  (Read 28151 times)

sol

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #50 on: November 08, 2016, 08:01:12 PM »
I've started drinking heavily. This too-close-to-call thing is bigly ungood.

I started hours ago. 

Kriegsspiel

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #51 on: November 08, 2016, 08:05:17 PM »
Whatever happens, I don't feel like I should have to face it sober.

waltworks

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #52 on: November 08, 2016, 08:08:57 PM »
My prediction: I will be hungover and much, much poorer in the morning. Futures markets looking grim.

-W

katsiki

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #53 on: November 08, 2016, 08:12:44 PM »
If Clinton loses NC, which wasn't supposed to be a battleground state, and doesn't win in FL, her path to victory gets very narrow.

It's looking that way.
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sol

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2016, 08:15:52 PM »
If Clinton loses NC, which wasn't supposed to be a battleground state, and doesn't win in FL, her path to victory gets very narrow.

It's looking that way.

I think NH and NV would still do it, even if Trump wins FL and NC.

dividendman

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2016, 08:28:31 PM »
Anyone going to do some rebalancing tomorrow? Betting markets have Trump winning now.

bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2016, 08:29:16 PM »
If Clinton loses NC, which wasn't supposed to be a battleground state, and doesn't win in FL, her path to victory gets very narrow.

It's looking that way.

I think NH and NV would still do it, even if Trump wins FL and NC.

She's at 253 without NC. NV gives her 6, to 259. IA may go to Clinton, which gives 265.

Add in NH and ME and that would do it but just barely.

azure975

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2016, 08:39:52 PM »
If he wins and they repeal the ACA it's really gonna fuck up my FIRE plans. I'm not expecting the subsidy but I need to be able to buy insurance and I have pre-existing conditions.

hoping2retire35

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2016, 08:40:17 PM »
its about to be over quick.

NC, Fl, and OH pretty much are trumps.

if he takes Mi it is over.


bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #59 on: November 08, 2016, 08:44:15 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

hoping2retire35

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2016, 08:45:54 PM »
markets did the same thing with Brexit, give it til monday.

she won't take iowa.

ACA; no mandate, and lower susidy(ie. you will have to pay more; maybe some type of adjustment on the level of when it is provided/turns to medicaid) other than that just remember Washington will still have a lot of politicians.

did my 270 map again. she keeps mi and he get nh. 269-269...

a little netflix, ill check in then I am out.

hoping2retire35

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #61 on: November 08, 2016, 08:47:35 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.
reported, trump won it 54%

cube.37

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #62 on: November 08, 2016, 08:49:59 PM »
I'm pretty new to this voting thing...voted today for my first election.

I was hoping for a gridlock with a Clinton win and a Republican house & senate. If Trump were to win, is there a chance for a democratic house/senate?

v8rx7guy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #63 on: November 08, 2016, 08:53:35 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #64 on: November 08, 2016, 08:59:16 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

The Republicans have been saying that for years. The country is still waiting.

I still see MI as 48-46. Where are you (hoping2retire35) seeing MI is a Trump win at 54%?

A Democratic House is impossible. A Democratic Senate is nearly impossible. It'll be all Republican until mid-terms when people come to their senses.

Kriegsspiel

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #65 on: November 08, 2016, 09:01:58 PM »
Drinking is accelerating.

marty998

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #66 on: November 08, 2016, 09:03:01 PM »
Aussie Stock exchange has given its verdict on Trump - down 5% before recovering slightly.

Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo are also down.

Gold is soaring

katsiki

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #67 on: November 08, 2016, 09:03:34 PM »
ACA isn't going anywhere..  Once it's in, the govt never gets rid of anything.
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azure975

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #68 on: November 08, 2016, 09:05:01 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

I hope so, but the problem is he wasn't clear on what he was going to do about anything (except build a wall). 

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #69 on: November 08, 2016, 09:06:43 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

I hope so, but the problem is he wasn't clear on what he was going to do about anything (except build a wall).

He'll make everything GRRRRRREAT! (Or so I'm told)

FINate

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #70 on: November 08, 2016, 09:07:10 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

We get ACA subsidies...engineered our post FIRE income to get us in the required income sweet spot. Even with the subsidy I don't find it  useful because the deductibles are so high. And if we do some side gigs for extra cash it can act as a tax as the subsidy phases out. If our income drops too much we'll be kicked into MediCal (CA's version of Medicaid) which has a even more limited network. Or if I or DW decide to work part time we risk of hitting the so-called ACA Family Glitch if the employer offers coverage.

For us at least it's more of a pain in the ass than anything. What I really want is plain old catastrophic coverage, you know, actual insurance rather than pre-paid healthcare.

If the ACA goes away my hope is that states will start experimenting with their own reforms, which is what should have happened to begin with. I could see CA going to single payer...though there would be a massive fight with the special interests.


bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #71 on: November 08, 2016, 09:08:46 PM »
ACA isn't going anywhere..  Once it's in, the govt never gets rid of anything.

The Republicans have voted more than 60 times to repeal the ACA. It'll go down in February.

v8rx7guy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #72 on: November 08, 2016, 09:09:32 PM »
ACA isn't going anywhere..  Once it's in, the govt never gets rid of anything.

The Republicans have voted more than 60 times to repeal the ACA. It'll go down in February.

And replaced.

azure975

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #73 on: November 08, 2016, 09:13:25 PM »
Wayne County is only reporting at 36%. That's worth +150k votes for Clinton.

Yeah, getting rid of the ACA will be one of the first things that Congress does. It'll fuck up my ER plans too.

Or maybe he will actually replace it with something better?  That is what he has been saying all along.

We get ACA subsidies...engineered our post FIRE income to get us in the required income sweet spot. Even with the subsidy I don't find it  useful because the deductibles are so high. And if we do some side gigs for extra cash it can act as a tax as the subsidy phases out. If our income drops too much we'll be kicked into MediCal (CA's version of Medicaid) which has a even more limited network. Or if I or DW decide to work part time we risk of hitting the so-called ACA Family Glitch if the employer offers coverage.

For us at least it's more of a pain in the ass than anything. What I really want is plain old catastrophic coverage, you know, actual insurance rather than pre-paid healthcare.

If the ACA goes away my hope is that states will start experimenting with their own reforms, which is what should have happened to begin with. I could see CA going to single payer...though there would be a massive fight with the special interests.
The problem is that that could take forever. I was hoping for EARLY retirement.

geekette

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #74 on: November 08, 2016, 09:16:30 PM »
As someone who is currently relying on the ACA just for access to health insurance, a Drumpf prez with a republican senate scares the snot out of me.  They'll repeal, argue incessantly, do nothing, and the insurance companies will go back to their old ways. 

I am so ashamed of our country right now.

Apples

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #75 on: November 08, 2016, 09:18:07 PM »
ACA isn't going anywhere..  Once it's in, the govt never gets rid of anything.

But they can change all the rules.  Get rid of the mandate/tax/penalty, allow discrimination pricing based on health and demography of the purchaser (say, pre-existing conditions or anything currently used to determine life insurance rates), change the subsidies so they disappear, etc.  The health insurance may still be there, but it could be a totally different animal.

StarBright

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #76 on: November 08, 2016, 09:30:06 PM »
As someone who is currently relying on the ACA just for access to health insurance, a Drumpf prez with a republican senate scares the snot out of me.  They'll repeal, argue incessantly, do nothing, and the insurance companies will go back to their old ways. 

I am so ashamed of our country right now.

I'm sorry geekette and I'm sorry about NC (I'm a former orange county girl). My fingers are crossed for all of us that existing conditions and subsidies are protected.

I'm also concerned about the freedom of the press under a Trump presidency but I have some hope that even a Republican congress will protect that.

vern

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2016, 09:42:10 PM »
The faces of the newscasters are priceless.
"Of my fifty-seven years I have applied at least thirty to forgetting most of what I had learned or read, and since I succeeded in this I have acquired a certain ease and cheer which I should never again like to be without."  World Chess Champion Emanuel Lasker

dividendman

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2016, 09:44:44 PM »
Well, it's going to be President Trump. Hopefully taxes go down at least.

bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #79 on: November 08, 2016, 09:47:04 PM »
Reposting from fivethirtyeight.com:

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/796209136396550144/photo/1

If Clinton wins NH, it could be an Electoral College tie.

sol

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #80 on: November 08, 2016, 09:48:29 PM »
Well, it's going to be President Trump. Hopefully taxes go down at least.

Have you read "his" tax "plan"?  Your taxes would totally go down, if you make more than $300k/year.

dividendman

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #81 on: November 08, 2016, 09:56:54 PM »
Yeah, lucky for me I do (at least for next year). I still can't quite believe it.

gimp

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #82 on: November 08, 2016, 09:57:25 PM »
I've started drinking heavily. This too-close-to-call thing is bigly ungood.

I started hours ago.

In retrospect, I should have gotten in bed before starting to drink. I'm still at work, can't drive home now...

arebelspy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #83 on: November 08, 2016, 09:58:38 PM »
Oof.. this is terrible.

Been watching for the last five hours, and I would be totally drunk right now if I drank, and it's not even noon.

Our country is going backwards. Trump. Republican senate.  Death penalty victories. 

Just makes me sad.

I'm calling in sick tomorrow.
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Hadilly

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #84 on: November 08, 2016, 10:00:35 PM »
NYT has Trump at 95% chance of winning, last I checked.

The best comment I've read so far in their live commentary was that this was the year whites without college degrees voted as a block and at 40% it is enough to tip the election.

Fucking depressing.

Edited to add a number back in
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 10:02:42 PM by Hadilly »

Squirrel away

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #85 on: November 08, 2016, 10:02:02 PM »
Okay. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It seems like the Brexit vote we had here.

dividendman

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #86 on: November 08, 2016, 10:08:14 PM »
Oof.. this is terrible.

Been watching for the last five hours, and I would be totally drunk right now if I drank, and it's not even noon.

Our country is going backwards. Trump. Republican senate.  Death penalty victories. 

Just makes me sad.

I'm calling in sick tomorrow.

You voted for Johnson!

moof

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #87 on: November 08, 2016, 10:10:44 PM »
Someone needs to take Comey behind the woodshed for this crap.

jim555

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #88 on: November 08, 2016, 10:12:18 PM »
There goes my health insurance. 
Dow futures -800.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 10:14:21 PM by jim555 »

MDM

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #89 on: November 08, 2016, 10:12:38 PM »
The faces of the newscasters are priceless.
+1

I think liberal fears of Trump are as baseless (or well founded, depending on what one thinks of the past eight years) as conservative fears of Obama eight years ago.

There is a lot of inertia in the system, although things the Democrats did while in power (e.g., Reid's senate rule changes) have reduced that inertia.  That may not have been a good thing to do....

bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #90 on: November 08, 2016, 10:12:56 PM »
Okay. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It seems like the Brexit vote we had here.

The only consolation is that the economy will probably take a dive in next few years and that'll be laid at Trump's feet. Add in some international blunders, and some cozying up to Putin, and he'll be a one-timer.

He can do a lot of damage in 2-4 years, however.

arebelspy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #91 on: November 08, 2016, 10:16:52 PM »
You voted for Johnson!

This is not true.  Please don't just make up things about other people.

Especially me.  ;)

The best comment I've read so far in their live commentary was that this was the year whites without college degrees voted as a block and at 40% it is enough to tip the election.

IDK, there's a lot of blame to go around.  Don't forget the Evangelical Christians more.  Yes, white, non-college-educated went for Trump, but not as hard as evangelical Christians.

From 538, stats on each, based on exit polls:
Quote
As the night ticks on, the question that seems to be on everyone’s lips is simply this: What is happening?

Clinton, considered the favorite going into the race is now an underdog — our live forecast now gives Trump a better chance to win the White House. So what are the factors at work, upending expectations of how this race would unfold?

At the heart of all this seems to be a Midwestern collapse by Clinton; she lost Ohio, which Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, the race in Michigan is currently too close to call, as is the one in Wisconsin. Obama won both these states in both 2008 and 2012. Pennsylvania, another state nudging into the Midwest, is also too close to call.

These states are filled with white voters without college degrees, a demographic that has in the past trended more favorably toward Democrats. But preliminary exit polls are showing that Trump’s margin in this group is unprecedented among exit polls that date back to 1980 — he is winning the demographic 67 percent to Clinton’s 28 percent, a spread of 39 points. By comparison, Mitt Romney won non-college-educated white voters by a margin of only 26 points in 2012.

Quote
Evangelical voters are potentially among the strongest demographic groups for Trump, and they help explain why he is doing unexpectedly well tonight. Trump’s margin among evangelical white Christians is 81-16 percent, according to exit poll results. That appears to be the widest margin for a Republican presidential candidate among evangelicals since 2004.

In Georgia, for example, preliminary exit polls show that Trump won 88 percent of white evangelical voters, compared with 6 percent for Clinton. The demographic makes up a third of the state’s voters. They are anticipated to be 20 percent of Florida’s voters.


During the primaries, many evangelical voters had questions about Trump’s values, but the demographic group consolidated around his candidacy because of issues like abortion and appointments to the Supreme Court.

The margin he has with evangelical Christians is way bigger than the margin with non-educated white folks.

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #92 on: November 08, 2016, 10:16:59 PM »
Well uhh.. this is going different from what I thought. I've been wrong I think in the past 3 elections in who was going to win. Looks like Trump is our new overlord. Hmm my thoughts of not coming back to the country are strengthening.
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v8rx7guy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #93 on: November 08, 2016, 10:17:18 PM »
There goes my health insurance. 
Dow futures -800.

Am I the only one who listened to both sides of the election?  Every time Trump said he would repeal obamacare, he said he would replace it.  It is shocking that rebulicans got behind him on this... but its true, his stance is to repeal AND replace.

jim555

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #94 on: November 08, 2016, 10:18:30 PM »
Looks like sell everything and get a one way ticket out of here is a real possibility.
America has just committed suicide, the experiment is over.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2016, 10:21:39 PM by jim555 »

arebelspy

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2016, 10:19:06 PM »
Okay. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It seems like the Brexit vote we had here.

The only consolation is that the economy will probably take a dive in next few years and that'll be laid at Trump's feet. Add in some international blunders, and some cozying up to Putin, and he'll be a one-timer.

He can do a lot of damage in 2-4 years, however.

Republican house and senate and presidency, whom they'll all quickly get on board with?

They're gonna pass so much legislation.

Supreme court nominations.  RBG has how much time left?  Not a lot.

And from 538, regarding the midterms:
Quote
If you’re thinking ahead to the 2018 midterms — and the possibility of a wave against a President Trump — keep two things in mind. The map that may cost Democrats the Electoral College tonight — perhaps despite winning the popular vote — is perhaps even more problematic for them in the House of Representatives, with Democratic voters packed into small, dense congressional districts. And the 2018 Senate map was already shaping up to be pretty terrible for Democrats — they’re defending a lot of red turf they won in 2012 as President Obama was reelected.
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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #96 on: November 08, 2016, 10:22:35 PM »
Okay. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It seems like the Brexit vote we had here.

The only consolation is that the economy will probably take a dive in next few years and that'll be laid at Trump's feet. Add in some international blunders, and some cozying up to Putin, and he'll be a one-timer.

He can do a lot of damage in 2-4 years, however.

Republican house and senate and presidency, whom they'll all quickly get on board with?

They're gonna pass so much legislation.

Supreme court nominations.  RBG has how much time left?  Not a lot.

And from 538, regarding the midterms:
Quote
If you’re thinking ahead to the 2018 midterms — and the possibility of a wave against a President Trump — keep two things in mind. The map that may cost Democrats the Electoral College tonight — perhaps despite winning the popular vote — is perhaps even more problematic for them in the House of Representatives, with Democratic voters packed into small, dense congressional districts. And the 2018 Senate map was already shaping up to be pretty terrible for Democrats — they’re defending a lot of red turf they won in 2012 as President Obama was reelected.

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bacchi

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #97 on: November 08, 2016, 10:22:51 PM »
Okay. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It seems like the Brexit vote we had here.

The only consolation is that the economy will probably take a dive in next few years and that'll be laid at Trump's feet. Add in some international blunders, and some cozying up to Putin, and he'll be a one-timer.

He can do a lot of damage in 2-4 years, however.

Republican house and senate and presidency, whom they'll all quickly get on board with?

They're gonna pass so much legislation.

Supreme court nominations.  RBG has how much time left?  Not a lot.

And from 538, regarding the midterms:
Quote
If you’re thinking ahead to the 2018 midterms — and the possibility of a wave against a President Trump — keep two things in mind. The map that may cost Democrats the Electoral College tonight — perhaps despite winning the popular vote — is perhaps even more problematic for them in the House of Representatives, with Democratic voters packed into small, dense congressional districts. And the 2018 Senate map was already shaping up to be pretty terrible for Democrats — they’re defending a lot of red turf they won in 2012 as President Obama was reelected.

Oh, it'll be bad. If Trump gets 2 SC nominations, even gay marriage is on the chopping block.

azure975

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #98 on: November 08, 2016, 10:23:16 PM »
Looks like sell everything and get a one way ticket out of here is a real possibility.
America has just committed suicide, the experiment is over.

Tangent: Assuming that you have the means to emigrate, what country do you think has the best quality of life for ER?

Apples

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Re: The Election Results Thread
« Reply #99 on: November 08, 2016, 10:24:49 PM »
There goes my health insurance. 
Dow futures -800.

Am I the only one who listened to both sides of the election?  Every time Trump said he would repeal obamacare, he said he would replace it.  It is shocking that rebulicans got behind him on this... but its true, his stance is to repeal AND replace.

Not to speak for anyone, but I think the people saying that here mostly believe it either will not be replaced because of in-fighting among legislators about what the new system should be, or that a worse, less accessible, more expensive option will be in its place instead, and will adversely affect them.