I mentioned I would post this in another thread and finally getting around to it because of an article I read today.
I've been following this for a number of years, and I really believe we'll see Trump ordering the bombing of North Korea sometime in 2018, or 2019 the latest.
There have been a number of articles written around what Trump and members of his administration have said, as well as the arguments for bombing and not bombing between the two camps for and against. A lot of these articles come with opinions (which I can't stand), but ignoring the writers opinions and looking into what is said by various members of the administration, I think its pretty clear that once North Korea announces that it has crossed a certain line, we'll start seeing reports on CNN of a massive bombing campaign in North Korea by the US Air Force.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/an-attack-on-north-korea-would-be-massive--and-massively-stupid/2018/02/25/4830251e-18dd-11e8-8b08-027a6ccb38eb_story.html?utm_term=.e817a864afe5The WS article references this:
https://theintercept.com/2018/02/21/gop-senator-says-trump-is-ready-to-start-war-with-north-korea-that-would-be-one-of-the-worst-catastrophic-events-in-history/but there are a lot of published accounts of comments on North Korea.
There is a growing sense that this is a such a terrible idea that it can't possibly happen, and I think that is naive. If Trump has shown anything, its that he wants to do the opposite of Obama, who he feels was weak and got us into some of the messes we have now (some of that I agree with). I think North Korea just doesn't represent a threat to the US that Trump would like to end, but feels he has to be the one to do it, and to be able to take credit for it. He LOVES to take credit for things (real and imaginary).
For those that don't know, and also for those that do, the bombing of North Korea is an extra sensitive issue for a number of reasons. The biggest concern is South Korea. The Korean War ended with the DMZ within artillery range of South Korea's capital Seoul. The argument has been that if a war breaks out, that the North Koreans would unleash an artillery barrage that would level Seoul and kill hundreds of thousands of people. As a matter of fact, Clinton was going to bomb North Korea back in the day when they first developed their own nuclear power plant, and the South Koreans protested, even though Clinton offered to carpet bomb the artillery sites.
Now the artillery sits are impressive works. They are huge guns that are actually built into the opposite sides of the mountains facing Seoul, and when they would go to fire, they would roll out, fire OVER the mountains into the direction of Seoul, then retreat back into the mountain to reload. Then repeat. This makes them pretty much impossible to destroy in any kind of counter artillery barrage.
Now, the moment I realized the bombing of North Korea would indeed take place at some point was an article I read recently about a US Air Force general who stated that destroying those artillery sites was feasible. He stated that those sites are not movable, took quite an effort and resources to build,
and each and every one of them have been mapped by satellite GPS. So with the advances in smart bomb technology, he basically stated that it might only take a couple of days of round the clock bombing to destroy each of the sites. The primary target for the bombing would be missile sites and nuclear production facilities, but those artillery sites would have to be taken out before North Korea could retaliate with them.
Now, it doesn't matter if you think this would really be feasible. All that matters is that Trump feels it would be, being reassured by members of his staff (which McMaster thinks can be done ~ “We’re not committed to a peaceful [resolution], we’re committed to a resolution. … We have to be prepared if necessary to compel the denuclearization of North Korea without the cooperation of that regime.”). The other camp, Tillerson and Mattis, are not so sure.
Provided that the Chinese do not get involved, and unless US troops were to storm the beaches I don't think they would, any kind of conventional war of North Korea will be a short one. Its a very small country, and they can barely feed themselves, let alone their military. Kim has zero military experience, while our's has been at war for the last 17 years. They use pretty ancient weapons while we use state of the art.
That being said, if it were to go nuclear, and I doubt it will, with North Korea sending a nuke at South Korea or Japan, then expect North Korea to cease to exist.
Provided its just a quick and devastating air campaign, I expect China to sit this one out. They have too much to lose in the South China Sea, and lets say for example, they were to come to North Korea's aid and shoot down some of our planes or even attack our navy in the open ocean, they would lose their navy and South China sea islands. It would be no contest. That being said, China's military is growing, and in 10 or so years will probably be a real challenge to the US interests there, but at the moment the US is supreme and I don't think China will risk losing everything they have built in the last 15 years there. I expect they will be patient as they have been shown to be, and not lose it all for North Korea, provided that the US doesn't send troops over the border, throw out Kim, and unite the Koreas.
So all that being said, if you agree with me, how do you think the market reacts?