Texas will turn Blue by which election year?

[sherr]

But you still haven't answered the question of why President Pence should continue to do Trump's bidding when there's no clear political motive for him to do so.

I did; it's because that's Pence's only plausible path to being elected president. You just disagree that it's particularly plausible, but it's not like there's a more plausible path out there for him if he betrays Trump.

[Telecaster]

^ I haven't followed this whole thread, but Trump's base is incredibly loyal.    If Pence acts like Trump's lap dog, maybe Pence can mobile that base again in some future election.   And hey, Trump got elected once.

 

[talltexan]

Why did Ford pardon Nixon? What about "Trump is vastly popular with Republicans and Pence isn't" makes you think that Pence would betray his entire potential voting base just to suddenly discover a conscience?

When Ford pardoned Nixon he had more than two years to govern as President and was eligible to run for election (which he ultimatrely did).  In this hypothetical Pence would have about two months (or less) before his term was up, and as a post-election lame duck he would not be able to run for election.  In fact, regardless of what he did he would be out of politics entirely on January 20th.

I just don't see the benefit for Pence to issue a pardon.  As Ford learned, issuing a pardon can hurt future campaigns.  And what would his life in politics even be?  He's never been a strong sell for to be the GOP standardbearer.  He could run for his old House seat... but that's currently held by his brother (awkward!). The next Indiana Senator race is in 2022 against a fellow GOP (Braun).  He's no longer eligible to be state Governor, having served his time.

In short - when evaluating whether a politician *will* do something (i.e. "issue a pardon of Trump") I look at how this would benefit him, and how NOT doing it would hurt him.  I don't see how it would help him, and I can see how it could harm him.

Ford was facing a very serious challenge for the GOP nomination in 1976. Ronald Reagan almost beat him. I'm sure the pardon was part of that calculus.

I don't know what future career in politics Pence is considering. I feel like Pompeo is the more brazenly ambitious of the pair, and the libertarians (think Koch network) like him more. Pence would have a hard time beating Pompeo or Nikki Haley in the 2024 primary. Haley was much more popular within SC than Pence was in Indiana.

[nereo]

Ford was facing a very serious challenge for the GOP nomination in 1976. Ronald Reagan almost beat him. I'm sure the pardon was part of that calculus.

I don't know what future career in politics Pence is considering. I feel like Pompeo is the more brazenly ambitious of the pair, and the libertarians (think Koch network) like him more. Pence would have a hard time beating Pompeo or Nikki Haley in the 2024 primary. Haley was much more popular within SC than Pence was in Indiana.

I tend to agree.  Pence seems like a distant competitor for the GOP nominee sweepstakes.  I'd toss Rubio and the Trump children in with Pompeo and Haley as more likely to lead the 2024 ticket, and frankly I just don't see Pence as ambitious enough to seriously run.
If I had to guess I think Pence will look at the options available to him and conclude that "retirement"* is his best option.

*and by "retirement" I mean he'll serve on a number of conservative boards and give speeches at fundraisers much as he does in his current capacity as VP, only he'll be paid substantially more than his current $235k.

[talltexan]

I don't want to criticize that conception of "retirement" because it seems that another Vice President--Joe Biden--has been enjoying a very similar retirement to that from 2017-2019.

[ender]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I am more curious what happens to the Democratic party if the Republican party implodes. One thing Trump is masterful at is dominating the narrative to be about him, even from the Democrat side, it makes me wonder a bit what the Democratic party will do if they don't have the "not Trump" thing going for them. There's definitely fractures in that party too but a categorical dislike of Trump is a strong reason to hold it together. Without Trump (or any Republican in a similarly, uh, let's say controversial spot) I'm curious whether it'll stay a cohesive party.

Add in all the covid related problems for the rest of this year leading into 2020's election are certainly going to be interesting.

[nereo]

I don't want to criticize that conception of "retirement" because it seems that another Vice President--Joe Biden--has been enjoying a very similar retirement to that from 2017-2019.

I was trying not to provide judgement on that kind of politicla 'retirement'.  I accept that most executives, be they governors, prez/VP or CEOs, often work as fundraisers/motivational speakers/consultants and earn a substantial amount for doing so.

[Kris]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." (Arguably, McCain and Romney were better, but they didn't win, now did they?) Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

[nereo]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

[Kris]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

Yes, very true. But everything hinges on whether those people vote, or whether they become disaffected. Trump's supporters vote.

[nereo]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

Yes, very true. But everything hinges on whether those people vote, or whether they become disaffected. Trump's supporters vote.

Do they? More so than people voting for the other candidate/against Trump
We have an n=1 when voting directly for Trump.

Midterm and special elections haven't supported the idea that Trump voters are more loyal than the opposition. There have been a laundry-list of Trump-Approved® candidates who failed to win primaries and special elections in the last two years.

I guess we'll know a lot more in late November.

[ender]

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

Yup.

This is a big factor. I'd be very curious to somehow see the strength of Trump support by age (and the age demographics of those who hate Trump). Nearly everyone I know who is younger who voted for Trump did so very begrudgingly while those who are 50+ all did so happily.

And then compare this to some of the prior Republican presidents like Bush (or even the McCain/Romney campaigns).

Trump's douchebaggery alienates a lot of people who might otherwise vote Republican in my circles, but I'm younger. And it obviously invigorates others - or at least convinces Republican leaning folks to vote.

@Kris I think I'm perhaps naively optimistic around what percentage of the Republican party is happy about Trump's narcissism/formula. I hope that if/when he loses in 2020, that will put an end to his particular brand being viable within politics in the USA

[sixwings]

Trump is really popular with registered republicans. like 90%+ approval. Don't kid yourself, republicans may publicly say they don't like what is going on at dinner parties, but privately they love what he's doing.

[ender]

Trump is really popular with registered republicans. like 90%+ approval. Don't kid yourself, republicans may publicly say they don't like what is going on at dinner parties, but privately they love what he's doing.

If only registered Republicans voted for Republican, Trump would have a 0% chance of winning.

Less than 30% of Americans are registered Republicans (less than independent or Democrats).

Not all Trump voters were registered as Republicans. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/first-time-ever-there-are-fewer-registered-republicans-than-independents/

[BicycleB]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

Yes, very true. But everything hinges on whether those people vote, or whether they become disaffected. Trump's supporters vote.

It might be that Trump's opponents have their votes suppressed.

[Kris]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I'm not sure about that, tbh. I mean, yes, Trump is a disaster for them in some ways. But the thing is, he definitely has galvanized voters in a remarkable way, and made them incredibly loyal to him. I'd argue that his particular pathological narcissism has allowed him to stumble across a winning formula. He's just bad at it (no impulse control, actually not smart or competent or qualified, more of an idiot savant).

My gut feeling is that the Republican party, once they pick themselves up and brush themselves off (assuming a Trump defeat, which I still don't want to think of as a given), will take the following lesson: do what he did, but just better. Less stupidly. Just as brazenly lying with a straight face, just as blatantly ignoring the Constitution, but just doing it with a little more finesse, and maybe not quite so much literal palling around with dictators of hostile nations. That could be a winning formula for them in 2024.

When GWBush was elected, I thought, "These Republican nominees just keep getting worse lately. Wow, wonder how the next one could be worse." Now, since Trump has been in office, I have been wondering the same thing about the next GOP nominee. My verdict: As corrupt as Trump, but much cleverer.

To me, the biggest challenge the GOP will face in the decades ahead will be the changing demographics of our country.  We continue to be less white, more educated and (a bit counterintuitively) younger.  None of those play well for their current identity.  Until Covid we were also becoming far more urban/less rural; it will be interesting to see how that might change (and whether it will be picked up in the ongoing Census which decides districts for the decade to come).

It will be much harder to convert today's 20-30 somethjings into the GOP as has happened with previous generations. Political science shows once you get into your 40s it's increasingly unlikely that you change political affiliations.

Yes, very true. But everything hinges on whether those people vote, or whether they become disaffected. Trump's supporters vote.

It might be that Trump's opponents have their votes suppressed.

Yes, that's another factor. A big one.

[talltexan]

It seems likely that if Trump loses in 2020, all bets are off as to what the Republican party does. It's absolutely been imploding for quite some time, since the Tea Party movement and Trump splitting the party as well. It certainly feels like Trump losing in 2020 results in a dramatically changed Republican party. It feels inevitable to fall apart in either 2020 (with a Trump loss) or 2024 (if Trump wins).

I am more curious what happens to the Democratic party if the Republican party implodes. One thing Trump is masterful at is dominating the narrative to be about him, even from the Democrat side, it makes me wonder a bit what the Democratic party will do if they don't have the "not Trump" thing going for them. There's definitely fractures in that party too but a categorical dislike of Trump is a strong reason to hold it together. Without Trump (or any Republican in a similarly, uh, let's say controversial spot) I'm curious whether it'll stay a cohesive party.

Add in all the covid related problems for the rest of this year leading into 2020's election are certainly going to be interesting.

The energy from the Tea Party has put two dozen states out of reach of Democratic control, even if the people who live in them are purple. As long as these vast geographies call themselves "Republican", the party will never die, and it will be able to maintain forty seats in the Senate to block whatever they want nationally.

[nereo]

Trump is really popular with registered republicans. like 90%+ approval. Don't kid yourself, republicans may publicly say they don't like what is going on at dinner parties, but privately they love what he's doing.

If only registered Republicans voted for Republican, Trump would have a 0% chance of winning.

Less than 30% of Americans are registered Republicans (less than independent or Democrats).

Not all Trump voters were registered as Republicans. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/28/first-time-ever-there-are-fewer-registered-republicans-than-independents/

We've seen this throughout his Presidency.  At the very, very beginning he commanded an approval rating in the high 40s as a lot of people were going to give him the benefit of the doubt (for reference he received 46.1% of the total vote to HRC's 48.2%, with Johnson & Stein collectively taking the majority of the remainder).  Since then his approval has been dramatically consistent in the 40-42% range.  That jives with 90% of registered republicans support along with ~10% of independents and 5% of Dems.

His current support of ~41% is dramatically insufficient to win re-election, and translates to an astounding 8.2MM fewer voters this time around if turnout is roughly the same @56% (in line with the last 4 presidential elections, and on par with elections since the 1970s) and with the expanded electorate.

Since (again) the roll of a 3rd party candidate appears to be small, Trump has to somehow get a larger percentage of people to vote for him than currently support him.  It's a really tough road for him - even with additional supression efforts.

[nereo]

The energy from the Tea Party has put two dozen states out of reach of Democratic control, even if the people who live in them are purple. As long as these vast geographies call themselves "Republican", the party will never die, and it will be able to maintain forty seats in the Senate to block whatever they want nationally.

40 seats doesn't do what it once did.  Reed broached the "nuclear option" and McConnell has fully embraced it.  Very little requires more than 50 votes anymore (if you control the WH - 51 if you don't).

Meanwhile committee chairs are still controlled by the majority.

[talltexan]

With 48 or 49 R chairs, though, there will be tremendous pressure on Red State Dem's to cross over.

[nereo]

With 48 or 49 R chairs, though, there will be tremendous pressure on Red State Dem's to cross over.

Sure, it's called compromise, and it's the way divided government is supposed to work.
There will also be pressure on 'Blue/Purple State" Republicans to work with Democrats.

Bottom line, you only need 50 to pass legislation these days, and with Dems almost certainly in control of the House from 2021.  the GOP will (as minority parties typically do) block what legislation they can and try to slow all else down to a crawl.