Author Topic: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change  (Read 20975 times)

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #250 on: February 21, 2020, 04:33:35 PM »
Here is my opinion.

The climate is changing and in general the Earth has been warming over the last century or so (as an aside changing global warming to climate change feels like a completely BS move because the climate is always changing so a colder winter or a warmer winter can both be presented as proof of climate change whereas only one could be presented a proof of global warming).

Some percentage of that is due to man-made causes and some percentage is due to natural causes/normal cycles and variation. Whether that percentage is 99% and 1% or 70% and 30% I don't know. The majority is probably from man-made causes.

Even if the global average temperature rises a few degrees, the world will not end. Our planet and many of the species on it have survived warm periods and cold periods before.

Up until this point, I am in total agreement with you (though it is definitely closer to 99%/1%, if not more as Davnasty points out).

Stopping or reversing that change will be extremely expensive on a global scale - on the order of hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars. People in rich countries will be marginally impacted, i.e. doubling the price of energy might cost a household making $50k a year another few thousand. People in poor countries will probably face a greater impact.

This is only half correct. What you are not accounting for is the costs of doing nothing. These are (needless to say) difficult to estimate, but here's one estimate: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth103/node/717. Right now we are living the high life on fossil fuels, but we're going to stick our progeny with the bill.

There is waaaay too much hysteria surrounding this issue. Somehow we've been 5-10 years from an irreversible tipping point and the end of the world as we know it for a few decades. When you keep saying the sky is falling year after year and it just drops slightly, it doesn't really engender a lot of confidence. New York City will be 10 feet under water..... in a century or two.

Tell me what your idea of 'hysteria' is. Because I don't feel that having a rational debate around what most of the world feels is a pretty big problem is the definition of hysteria. There are certainly some people that have exaggerated the potential consequences, but nowhere near as many who have exaggerated in the other direction.

While the concern many people feel may be heartfelt, it is hard for me not to look at this through a cynical lens as a desire for power, or anti-capitalism, or some other underlying reason other than genuine concern for current and future generations.

I, for one, am a strong advocate for capitalism and have little desire for power in the traditional sense. I genuinely have a concern for current and future generations (along with other living things). I think your cynical lens should be re-aimed toward those who have short-term financial interests in continuing the status quo (which to a large degree would reflect on ourselves as a society).

-James in ABQ

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #251 on: February 21, 2020, 08:42:29 PM »
It's not a scientific opinion.  I think it has a natural component only because of history.  Climate change has occurred throughout the history of the earth. The ice age, the middle ages both were cooling periods in earth's history.  I don't understand why anyone would totally discount that the current warming trend has no natural origins.
I'm always amused by this argument.

Heart disease has a genetic component. But if I have a family history of heart disease, that doesn't mean I can go ahead and smoke and drink a lot - it means I have to be MORE careful than if I didn't have that natural tendency. If mum and dad dropped off in their 50s from heart disease despite being slim non-smoking teetotallers, I really don't have any room to fuck around - I have to be very, very careful.

Likewise, if the climate were warming naturally anyway (which it isn't), that wouldn't mean we should keep on motoring, that would mean we should be MORE careful.

The "it's partly natural" argument thus leads to a more severe prescription for change in fossil fuels, land use and overall consumption.

Of course, they've not really thought it through.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #252 on: February 21, 2020, 09:44:05 PM »
Just to point out that we started burning a significant amount of coal at the start of the Industrial revolution so any anthropogenic climate change started then.   Burning wood/peat etc is part of the short term carbon cycle, no real global effects, burning fossil fuels meant the start of using sequestered carbon.

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

Hot periods in earth's history have always had increasing greenhouse gases as a cause, usually from huge planetary production from huge lava flows. Look up the Deccan traps.  And remember that really major warming means a lot of ocean mortality. What do people eat when ocean fisheries collapse and that was their main protein source?

skp

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #253 on: February 22, 2020, 04:14:47 AM »

I'm always amused by this argument.


Likewise, if the climate were warming naturally anyway (which it isn't), that wouldn't mean we should keep on motoring, that would mean we should be MORE careful.

I don't think you get what I am saying.  I totally agree with this.  Whether it is

The "it's partly natural" argument thus leads to a more severe prescription for change in fossil fuels, land use and overall consumption.

Of course, they've not really thought it through.
I'm not sure you understand my position.  I totally agree with this.  The fact that I think that "its partly natural"  doesn't mean that I don't agree with needing to make the changes necessary to protect the environment. . You want muggles to get on board.  Yet It seems like even if  they do what you want/ the environment needs, it isn't enough.  They have to believe exactly  how you believe .  The percentage of natural causes, whether it is 99% or 0% has to be exact.  Is this like a religion.  All or none?  You can be a hypocrite and go to heaven,  or live like Christ and go to hell if you don't buy the whole package.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 04:17:48 AM by skp »

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #254 on: February 22, 2020, 04:56:14 AM »
You need to read the thread before responding to it, really.


I don't call them "muggles", that's a conceit of the OP which I've spoken against in this thread.


I'm indifferent to what people believe, I'm interested in what they do. The idea that belief is necessary, relevant or sufficient is a peculiarly American idea. "Only believe! and it will be!" probably originating from evangelical Christianity. But I'm Jewish, and in Judaism it's not a requirement to believe anything at all, only to follow the Law. It's the same as civil law: nobody cares if you don't believe in the existence or utility of courts, magistrates, lawyers and police, so long as you follow the law. Nor will the magistrate be much moved if, on your appearance in court on serious charges, you say, "But Your Honour, I really believe in you!"


Actions matter. We need to consume less. Whether you consume less because you are concerned about climate change, or you're concerned about peak fossil fuels, or you're concerned about pollution, or you're concerned about the loss of local jobs overseas, or you're frugal or you're poor, or you just don't feel all that burning stuff suits your personal style, well it's completely irrelevant to the end result: less consumption.


But typically the arguments are not about exactly why we should reduce consumption, they're elaborate excuses not to. "Well, if we just change to -" "If the government would just -" "Really we need -" "Someone [else] should do something!" and then the person jumps on the next cross-ocean or cross-continental flight and at the other end gets into an SUV and drives to a McMansion bleeding energy out into the air. "But look, I really believe in -" Nobody cares.


That we are on a site dedicated to avoiding wasteful spending and people are still struggling with the idea of reducing consumption shows how intrinsic a part of our culture consumption is.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #255 on: February 22, 2020, 07:25:15 AM »
You need to read the thread before responding to it, really.


I don't call them "muggles", that's a conceit of the OP which I've spoken against in this thread.


I'm indifferent to what people believe, I'm interested in what they do. The idea that belief is necessary, relevant or sufficient is a peculiarly American idea. "Only believe! and it will be!" probably originating from evangelical Christianity. But I'm Jewish, and in Judaism it's not a requirement to believe anything at all, only to follow the Law. It's the same as civil law: nobody cares if you don't believe in the existence or utility of courts, magistrates, lawyers and police, so long as you follow the law. Nor will the magistrate be much moved if, on your appearance in court on serious charges, you say, "But Your Honour, I really believe in you!"


Actions matter. We need to consume less. Whether you consume less because you are concerned about climate change, or you're concerned about peak fossil fuels, or you're concerned about pollution, or you're concerned about the loss of local jobs overseas, or you're frugal or you're poor, or you just don't feel all that burning stuff suits your personal style, well it's completely irrelevant to the end result: less consumption.


But typically the arguments are not about exactly why we should reduce consumption, they're elaborate excuses not to. "Well, if we just change to -" "If the government would just -" "Really we need -" "Someone [else] should do something!" and then the person jumps on the next cross-ocean or cross-continental flight and at the other end gets into an SUV and drives to a McMansion bleeding energy out into the air. "But look, I really believe in -" Nobody cares.


That we are on a site dedicated to avoiding wasteful spending and people are still struggling with the idea of reducing consumption shows how intrinsic a part of our culture consumption is.

Agreed, actions speak louder than words.

This reminds me of a friend who posted on FB, just after Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement,

"OMG, this is sooooo horrible! It's going to be the end of the world as we know it!"

Then, to her Republican friends,

"This is all your fault, you know? You guys who voted for Trump are responsible for destroying the environment for our kids and grandkids! Are you ready to admit, yet, that you made a big mistake voting for that idiot?"

My response to this post was something like this,

"Gee, are you sure Trump supporters are to blame for global climate change? What about the people who voted for Trump who take a bus or walk to work, and just sit around their small apartments watching Fox News on their TVs, every night? You, OTOH, took your family of four and, literally, flew multiple times around the entire Earth during the past year. How many countries did you guys visit on your epic RTW trip, something like 20, right? Now, you're back home at your big house, with the built in, heated swimming pool, with your SUV parked in the heated and air conditioned garage, and what are you planning on doing next? Last I heard, you guys had just bought a brand new, diesel F-350 and a pretty cool-looking, big ass, brand-new RV that you're planning on using to drive around North, Central and South America for the next year(s). Are you really sure Trump supporters are the ones to blame for climate change?"

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #256 on: February 22, 2020, 08:00:30 AM »
Even if global climate change were a total hoax, which it's not, I still think there are ample good reasons for humans to make changes to our lifestyles.

For example, just take a look around at Americans. Sooooooo many people are sick and fat in the US! Some of that comes from the poor food supply. A lot of it, though, is because of Americans' sedentary lifestyles, which are enabled by easy, cheap access to cars. Making driving anywhere in a car expensive enough that people needed to think twice before driving even 1 mile would force people to get up off their fat asses and move their bodies more than they do now. If making driving a car more expensive resulted in Americans' losing weight and getting healthier, wouldn't that make it worth it, just by itself, even if you didn't believe that climate change was "real?"

I've lost track of how many Americans have told me, just in the last 6 months, that the only way they can get around is by car, because, "I have a bad knee (or back or hip), because I got into a bad car crash (recently, last year, 10 years ago). So, I have to go everywhere by car, because I'm disabled." Many, many more people I know aren't necessarily disabled in any specific way, other than the fact that they're 50 - 100lbs+ overweight and completely out of shape, which makes it extremely uncomfortable for them to walk any significant distances. I used to work with a guy in his early 40s, who could barely make it from the entrance of Walmart to his car parked a couple hundred feet away in one of the handicapped stalls. He used to give me his keys, and I would go get his car and drive it up to the front of the store to pick him up, because it was so hard for him to walk. The only thing wrong with him was that he weighed like 400lbs.

The Left in the US is all up in arms about guns. OMG, 14K people were murdered by guns (mostly pistols), last year, so let's ban scary black assault rifles!!! (that only kill maybe 500 people/year). OTOH, 40K+ people are killed and HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS are permanently maimed in car crashes in the US, every. single. year, but I haven't heard one politician, yet, come out with a proposal to ban cars. I mean, even implementing a tepid carbon tax like Canada has been experimenting with for the past 12 years, would probably save thousands of lives in the US, just because people would drive their cars a little less if gas cost more. But nobody's talking about that, at all, though. wtf?

LennStar

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #257 on: February 22, 2020, 10:02:24 AM »
Even if the global average temperature rises a few degrees, the world will not end. Our planet and many of the species on it have survived warm periods and cold periods before.

Yes, of course. I am quite sure humanity will even surivive a "nothing is done" scenario. A few million people on the North Pole.

But I do not want the other billions to die. Or 95% of nature.

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Stopping or reversing that change will be extremely expensive on a global scale - on the order of hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars.
Yes, and it will be at least 10 times more expensive is nothing is done.

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There is waaaay too much hysteria surrounding this issue.
Yes. The climate-hysteria hysteria is incredible. You could think many people believe we will end up living in mud huts if we do something against the destruction if the base of our living conditions.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #258 on: February 22, 2020, 12:50:01 PM »
I don't call them "muggles", that's a conceit of the OP which I've spoken against in this thread.


"Only believe! and it will be!" probably originating from evangelical Christianity. But I'm Jewish, and in Judaism it's not a requirement to believe anything at all, only to follow the Law.

Perhaps you can better help me understand your comment. You criticize OP for a lighthearted criticism of those who speak but do no action on climate change. Then in the next breath you criticize Christians (or is it Americans?) as having to "believe", but Jews are cool they know how to follow the law without believing.

By all appearances this shows 1) a fantastic example of ironic hypocrisy and 2) a grandiose level of self-delusion. To expound on 2 (because 1 is fairly obvious): Are you saying that Christians don't follow laws unless they believe in them (in general), or that Jews' origination of laws didn't originally extend from someone's belief, or what?

scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #259 on: February 22, 2020, 03:09:41 PM »
Just to point out that we started burning a significant amount of coal at the start of the Industrial revolution so any anthropogenic climate change started then.   Burning wood/peat etc is part of the short term carbon cycle, no real global effects, burning fossil fuels meant the start of using sequestered carbon.

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

Hot periods in earth's history have always had increasing greenhouse gases as a cause, usually from huge planetary production from huge lava flows. Look up the Deccan traps.  And remember that really major warming means a lot of ocean mortality. What do people eat when ocean fisheries collapse and that was their main protein source?

yeah, I remember that.   The scientists were predicting another ice age.   I never made the connection with the reduction in air pollution though.

so the 70's are actually an example of when we dealt with a climate crisis!  (beyond acid rain and ozone depletion, I mean)

bacchi

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #260 on: February 22, 2020, 05:07:42 PM »
That we are on a site dedicated to avoiding wasteful spending and people are still struggling with the idea of reducing consumption shows how intrinsic a part of our culture consumption is.

You're either virtue signalling or you haven't read the thread OP.

If you're going for the props, here ya go: You're great, you're the ideal, you're the proto environmentalist. Yay you!

But the OP wasn't about the poster's personal consumption and environmentalism. It was about convincing others (read: people who consume a lot) to take action. How do we convince other people to reduce energy use, which of course includes reduced consumption? There have been a few suggestions, including your "influencer" suggestion. That's worthwhile but it's going to be too little too late. (Plus, it's questionable how many people want to emulate my bike riding, small house, lifestyle -- even if we're FIRE partly because of it.)

Because you keep posting it, I'll itemize.

1) We need to consume less.

Yes, of course. We do.

2) People make excuses.

Yes, of course. We do.

No one here disagrees with the above. Most of my neighbors disagree, my parents disagree, but no one in this thread.



tl;dr You're preaching to the choir. How do we convince non-choir people to walk the walk?

bacchi

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #261 on: February 22, 2020, 05:09:07 PM »
Just to point out that we started burning a significant amount of coal at the start of the Industrial revolution so any anthropogenic climate change started then.   Burning wood/peat etc is part of the short term carbon cycle, no real global effects, burning fossil fuels meant the start of using sequestered carbon.

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

Hot periods in earth's history have always had increasing greenhouse gases as a cause, usually from huge planetary production from huge lava flows. Look up the Deccan traps.  And remember that really major warming means a lot of ocean mortality. What do people eat when ocean fisheries collapse and that was their main protein source?

yeah, I remember that.   The scientists were predicting another ice age.   I never made the connection with the reduction in air pollution though.

so the 70's are actually an example of when we dealt with a climate crisis!  (beyond acid rain and ozone depletion, I mean)

Eh, the "ice age" scare was one article in Newsweek or something based on one scientific paper. It was never 1000s of scientists all agreeing on an ice age.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #262 on: February 22, 2020, 05:33:21 PM »
But the OP wasn't about the poster's personal consumption and environmentalism. It was about convincing others (read: people who consume a lot) to take action. How do we convince other people to reduce energy use, which of course includes reduced consumption?
Power of example.

See the complete failure of the work of Al Gore, Leo Decaprio and others.

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How do we convince non-choir people to walk the walk?
By walking it ourselves.

Wekeeprollingdowntheroad

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #263 on: February 22, 2020, 06:43:47 PM »
The solution to climate change seems pretty straight forward to me. If burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, wouldn't a logical solution would be for us to burn less fossil fuels?

Recently, talking with regular (non Mustachian) people we meet, I've suggested various solutions, like, "How about we start encouraging more Americans to begin transitioning away from sedentary, car based lifestyles?" Seems like a no brainer to me. We'd burn less fossil fuels, emit less greenhouse gases, and humans would get more exercise by walking, riding a bike, etc. People sometimes nod their heads and passively agree with this statement but, more often, they say something along the lines of, "It'll never work. Americans are NEVER going to give up their cars."

When I start suggesting practical ways we might gently nudge average Americans to step out of their comfort zone and encourage them to start walking, cycling or taking public transport, their resistance starts to get more fierce. Yesterday, in a neighborhood online forum I suggested it might be a good idea for us to start gradually increasing the costs of car ownership. For example, I said, maybe we could get our city to start charging homeowners a fee to park their vehicles on publicly owned streets, and maybe we could encourage our state to start gradually increasing fuel taxes to make gasoline more expensive to encourage people to drive less and to raise revenue that could be used to improve public transport, build more bike lanes, etc. These ideas seemed like fairly straight forward, common sense, Econ 101 ways to push people to use their cars less, or to get rid of them altogether, but people in my neighborhood came out of the woodwork to attack me and my ideas.

Their main complaints seemed to be:

-Gas is already too expensive!

-There's no way I will EVER pay the city to park in front of my own god damn house!

-What about the poor people? How do you expect them to be able to afford to pay to park AND pay higher prices for gas? These ideas are crazy!

-What about all the people who *have* to drive long distances between their homes (in rural areas, 50+ miles outside our city) to come in to work every day? How can you expect them to pay more for gas AND pay to park too? This is nuts!

So, I asked my neighbors, "Well, what do you guys propose we do, then?"...crickets..........

Just feeling kind of frustrated. I mean, personally, I'm not that worried about climate change. We have enough money and are flexible enough that we'll be fine, pretty much no matter what happens. Poor people, people who are living paycheck to paycheck, probably are going to be the ones who will suffer the most, IMHO. Interestingly, middle class and up people are always the ones who trot out "poor people" as a kind of prop, I think, to justify their own wasteful lifestyles and unwillingness to change. I'm just feeling like, Why should I even care? Cheap gas is great for me and my family. Free parking? That's good for us too. I'd be willing to pay more for those things, because I think it might help to slowly begin weaning Americans off of their 100% car-based lifestyle, but if nobody else is willing to give up anything. at. all, why should I bother?

We've been keeping our thermostat set at 64F-67F. Over Christmas, we left town for a few days, and just shut the furnace off, because the forecast wasn't calling for the temperature to fall below freezing. The same neighbors who insist they can't go ANYWHERE without their cars, have also told us they like to keep their thermostats set at between 75F-80F... wtf?

I'm just feeling kinda hopeless. I mean, if 99% of Americans are unwilling to make even very small changes in their lives, what hope is there?

We’ve already passed the point of no return., it’s just a matter of when  Everything is simply overloaded. Too many people and not enough sustainable resources

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #264 on: February 22, 2020, 06:48:25 PM »
But the OP wasn't about the poster's personal consumption and environmentalism. It was about convincing others (read: people who consume a lot) to take action. How do we convince other people to reduce energy use, which of course includes reduced consumption?
Power of example.

See the complete failure of the work of Al Gore, Leo Decaprio and others.

Quote
How do we convince non-choir people to walk the walk?
By walking it ourselves.
Part of the problem is that those of us with voluntarily modest lifestyles are essentially invisible to the more consumerist tendency, and if we are noticed then we are looked down on as poor and/or unexciting and unadventurous, and possibly even small-minded and parochial.  That make influencing people harder: the status symbols we eschew are called that for a reason and our lack of them limits our influence with the very many people who deem them important.

Leading by non-consumerist example is a pipe-dream.  Leading by hypocrites also fails, as per the examples above.  We are, I think, doomed: lemmings heading for a cliff we know is there but carried along in the mob and unable to stop.

scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #265 on: February 22, 2020, 07:13:31 PM »
Just to point out that we started burning a significant amount of coal at the start of the Industrial revolution so any anthropogenic climate change started then.   Burning wood/peat etc is part of the short term carbon cycle, no real global effects, burning fossil fuels meant the start of using sequestered carbon.

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

Hot periods in earth's history have always had increasing greenhouse gases as a cause, usually from huge planetary production from huge lava flows. Look up the Deccan traps.  And remember that really major warming means a lot of ocean mortality. What do people eat when ocean fisheries collapse and that was their main protein source?

yeah, I remember that.   The scientists were predicting another ice age.   I never made the connection with the reduction in air pollution though.

so the 70's are actually an example of when we dealt with a climate crisis!  (beyond acid rain and ozone depletion, I mean)

Eh, the "ice age" scare was one article in Newsweek or something based on one scientific paper. It was never 1000s of scientists all agreeing on an ice age.

Bah, there was even popular fiction about it.   Remember 'Fallen Angels' by Pournelle and Niven?

RetiredAt63

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #266 on: February 22, 2020, 10:37:12 PM »
Just to point out that we started burning a significant amount of coal at the start of the Industrial revolution so any anthropogenic climate change started then.   Burning wood/peat etc is part of the short term carbon cycle, no real global effects, burning fossil fuels meant the start of using sequestered carbon.

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

Hot periods in earth's history have always had increasing greenhouse gases as a cause, usually from huge planetary production from huge lava flows. Look up the Deccan traps.  And remember that really major warming means a lot of ocean mortality. What do people eat when ocean fisheries collapse and that was their main protein source?

yeah, I remember that.   The scientists were predicting another ice age.   I never made the connection with the reduction in air pollution though.

so the 70's are actually an example of when we dealt with a climate crisis!  (beyond acid rain and ozone depletion, I mean)

Eh, the "ice age" scare was one article in Newsweek or something based on one scientific paper. It was never 1000s of scientists all agreeing on an ice age.

Bah, there was even popular fiction about it.   Remember 'Fallen Angels' by Pournelle and Niven?

I actually heard about this much later, talking with a retired meteorologist who was working back then.

Given that we have relatively recent historical evidence of large volcanic eruptions  producing a lot of particulate matter and causing temporary cooling, and given that we are already past the usual half way point for an inter-glacial, it makes perfect sense that they were concerned about it. 

LennStar

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #267 on: February 23, 2020, 03:50:01 AM »
I actually heard about this much later, talking with a retired meteorologist who was working back then.

Given that we have relatively recent historical evidence of large volcanic eruptions  producing a lot of particulate matter and causing temporary cooling, and given that we are already past the usual half way point for an inter-glacial, it makes perfect sense that they were concerned about it.

Of course that "Ice Scare" ignored the time factor. The particles (source of things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London ) were only in the air for a short time. CO2 is up there way way longer, so it would have eventually won. And we don't want that "London Fog" back, right?


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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #268 on: February 23, 2020, 04:39:16 AM »
Here is my opinion.
Opinions are nice, but the preponderance of scientific evidence over the last 50 years or more doesn't support your opinion.  I continue to be boggled at the number of people who think their opinion is somehow more informed than an overwhelming scientific consensus.

If one thousand oncologists told you that you had cancer, and one told you that you didn't need to worry, it was just gastritis--are you really going to believe the gastritis guy?  Because that's kind of where we're at on climate change science at this point.

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Some percentage of that is due to man-made causes and some percentage is due to natural causes/normal cycles and variation. Whether that percentage is 99% and 1% or 70% and 30% I don't know. The majority is probably from man-made causes.

Even if the global average temperature rises a few degrees, the world will not end. Our planet and many of the species on it have survived warm periods and cold periods before.

Yes, the scientific consensus is that global warming is nearly entirely man-made causes.  And what's worse, it's rocketing up faster than at almost any other time in history (and the one time in history it did happen this fast, it caused a massive extinction event).  Natural climate change happens over thousands of years, and has a very definite cycle.  We have not only overtopped this cycle on the high end by a wide margin, we have done it much faster than any possible natural cause (barring catastrophic meteor strikes and the like).  Scientists have taken multiple ice cores and found a great deal of other evidence in the geological record that confirms this.

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There is waaaay too much hysteria surrounding this issue. Somehow we've been 5-10 years from an irreversible tipping point and the end of the world as we know it for a few decades. When you keep saying the sky is falling year after year and it just drops slightly, it doesn't really engender a lot of confidence. New York City will be 10 feet under water..... in a century or two.

IMHO, there's not enough hysteria about this issue.  Scientists have been sounding the alarm for the last 50-100 years, depending on when you start counting.  If we'd listened and taken action then, this problem would have been much more solvable and much less expensive to tackle.  But we didn't want our free ride on fossil fuels to end, so we've been ignoring them.  Now we're past the tipping point.  Climate change is happening NOW.  Low-lying areas are flooding NOW.  Droughts and storms and ocean currents are increasing or changing NOW.  All of these things are guaranteed to screw us over in any number of ways, from the fresh water we need to drink, to the food we need to eat, to the places we need to live.  But because it's happening over decades rather than months or years, people still think we can ignore it.

Yes, humans will adapt, and a certain percentage will survive--as a species, we're really, really good at that.  But our civilization may not be able to.  Personally, I would prefer not to bequeath a world to future generations where a global, interconnected civilization has been reduced to a feudal/tribal state, or where we're responsible for the widespread destruction of habitat and the mass extinction of millions of animals, insects and plants in our blind pursuit of survival. 

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While the concern many people feel may be heartfelt, it is hard for me not to look at this through a cynical lens as a desire for power, or anti-capitalism, or some other underlying reason other than genuine concern for current and future generations.

It's easy to be cynical when you don't think it will affect you.  It's much harder when you actually give a damn for the natural world around you, or for people stuck in areas and economic situations who aren't as fortunate. 

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #269 on: February 23, 2020, 04:57:38 AM »

We are in an inter glacial.  Theoretically we could have started to cool.  There was a short cooling trend around the 70s because there was so much particulate matter in the atmosphere that we started reflecting more sunlight back into space. We cleaned up that mess and the cfc's but not the greenhouse gases.

yeah, I remember that.   The scientists were predicting another ice age.   I never made the connection with the reduction in air pollution though.

so the 70's are actually an example of when we dealt with a climate crisis!  (beyond acid rain and ozone depletion, I mean)

Eh, the "ice age" scare was one article in Newsweek or something based on one scientific paper. It was never 1000s of scientists all agreeing on an ice age.

The trick is to realise that stories in the mass media are written by journalists, not by by scientists. Journalist, usually, not always, exaggerate the impact of their stories.

I repeat: mass media stories about science are written by journalists, not by scientists.


scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #270 on: February 23, 2020, 10:24:16 AM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #271 on: February 23, 2020, 11:43:32 AM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #272 on: February 23, 2020, 01:00:57 PM »
There also isn't a concerted effort by well funded industry groups attempting to discredit the ideal gas law.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #273 on: February 23, 2020, 01:18:46 PM »
I actually heard about this much later, talking with a retired meteorologist who was working back then.

Given that we have relatively recent historical evidence of large volcanic eruptions  producing a lot of particulate matter and causing temporary cooling, and given that we are already past the usual half way point for an inter-glacial, it makes perfect sense that they were concerned about it.

Of course that "Ice Scare" ignored the time factor. The particles (source of things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London ) were only in the air for a short time. CO2 is up there way way longer, so it would have eventually won. And we don't want that "London Fog" back, right?

Mount Tambora's eruption in 1815 caused "the year without a summer" in New England in 1816.  Volcanoes can inject masses of small particles into the upper atmosphere if the explosion is violent enough.

The dust that was causing increased albedo in the 1970s was mostly very fine soil particles from wind soil erosion, plus particulates from burning. Large particles low to the ground don't have much effect on albedo, since rain washes them to the ground.  It is the ones that are small enough to get into the upper atmosphere that do. Cloud cover also affects albedo, as do snow and ice on the ground. 


scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #274 on: February 23, 2020, 02:13:57 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!


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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #275 on: February 23, 2020, 02:41:52 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!

The way that science works is, you propose a theory.  The theories are collected and reviewed - and the one that best fits the known facts becomes generally accepted.  If the known facts that we have change, or if a better theory comes along that explains them better . . . then yeah . . . everything has to change.  So agreed, science is never truly settled.

That said, arguing that science changes and is not settled is a common climate change denial tactic.  If science is never settled, then we can never trust it - and stuff along these lines.  That's an invalid argument as the denialists aren't arguing they've got a better fitting theory for the facts.  They're simply denying facts they don't like.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #276 on: February 23, 2020, 02:45:16 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!

Settled does not equate to proven. It just means it is sufficiently agreed upon by the scientists who have studied the topic to assume it is likely true.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2016/09/15/settled-does-not-mean-proved-scientific-method-and-why-so-many-people-get-it-wrong

RetiredAt63

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #277 on: February 23, 2020, 04:07:42 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!

Settled does not equate to proven. It just means it is sufficiently agreed upon by the scientists who have studied the topic to assume it is likely true.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2016/09/15/settled-does-not-mean-proved-scientific-method-and-why-so-many-people-get-it-wrong

Black swans - there were no black swans known to European science, so black swans didn't exist - and then there was Australia, and Black swans.  So one negative data point can invalidate a theory, certainly.  That is why scientists are so cautious with language.  And certainly new evidence can revolutionize a scientific discipline's basic theories - plate tectonics did that for geology, evolution and genetics did that for biology.

But there is lots of evidence for climate change, the main discussion is how much of it is anthropogenic - and it looks like the added CO2 from fossil fuels is definitely having an effect.  The big thing, to me, is how badly we want to run this experiment to its conclusion, when this is the only planet we have.  Remember, Marie Curie is known for her 2 Nobel prizes, what gets mentioned less is that she died of radiation poisoning.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #278 on: February 23, 2020, 04:40:16 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!

Settled does not equate to proven. It just means it is sufficiently agreed upon by the scientists who have studied the topic to assume it is likely true.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2016/09/15/settled-does-not-mean-proved-scientific-method-and-why-so-many-people-get-it-wrong

Black swans - there were no black swans known to European science, so black swans didn't exist - and then there was Australia, and Black swans.  So one negative data point can invalidate a theory, certainly.  That is why scientists are so cautious with language.  And certainly new evidence can revolutionize a scientific discipline's basic theories - plate tectonics did that for geology, evolution and genetics did that for biology.

But there is lots of evidence for climate change, the main discussion is how much of it is anthropogenic - and it looks like the added CO2 from fossil fuels is definitely having an effect.  The big thing, to me, is how badly we want to run this experiment to its conclusion, when this is the only planet we have.  Remember, Marie Curie is known for her 2 Nobel prizes, what gets mentioned less is that she died of radiation poisoning.

The black swan isn't a good analogy. For one, science didn't say there could only be white swans, and on the contrary, one could easily postulate that black swans could exist with a fairly minor genetic mutation (which was perhaps wiped out by natural selection in swans who lived in snowy Europe). Secondly, there was no major decision hanging on whether or not black swans existed.

A more appropriate analogy might be the discovery of geocentric solar systems in the universe, wherein a massive star orbits a much less massive planet. If such a situation were discovered, settled science would be upended.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #279 on: February 23, 2020, 05:16:24 PM »
One of the problems with climate science is that, unlike other sciences, it's hard to demonstrate the theories.

Think of the ideal gas law for example.   It's easy to demonstrate the ideal gas law.   Get a cylinder full of gas, heat it up and measure the pressure increase.    You can see the day to day application every time you start your car.    Few will argue about this.

Climate science is much harder.    Climate scientists have no way to demonstrate their theories.   All they can do is made predictions, and then see how well they do against future measurements.   There's lots of evidence that climate is changing.    Just compare the extent of the Columbia icefields over the last 40 years.    But it's hard to demonstrate what's causing the shrinking ice fields and polar gaps.

You're correct, verifying climate change is not as easy as verifying the ideal gas law. However, we have spent untold millions to verify whether the hypothesis that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would result in increased temperatures, and the resounding answer is yes.

The climate science is settled. Difficult to comprehend by the layperson? Sure. But so was the heliocentric model, and it was resisted for a long, long time, even after the preponderance of evidence was staring everyone in the face. But it's certainly easier to throw up one's hands and say I don't know rather than carefully review both sides' arguments with an open mind.

Science is never settled and climate science is no exception.     We will continue to learn about the climate in the years and decades to come.    Dogma is the enemy of science, as you point our with your geocentric/heliocentric example!

Settled does not equate to proven. It just means it is sufficiently agreed upon by the scientists who have studied the topic to assume it is likely true.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2016/09/15/settled-does-not-mean-proved-scientific-method-and-why-so-many-people-get-it-wrong

Black swans - there were no black swans known to European science, so black swans didn't exist - and then there was Australia, and Black swans.  So one negative data point can invalidate a theory, certainly.  That is why scientists are so cautious with language.  And certainly new evidence can revolutionize a scientific discipline's basic theories - plate tectonics did that for geology, evolution and genetics did that for biology.

But there is lots of evidence for climate change, the main discussion is how much of it is anthropogenic - and it looks like the added CO2 from fossil fuels is definitely having an effect.  The big thing, to me, is how badly we want to run this experiment to its conclusion, when this is the only planet we have.  Remember, Marie Curie is known for her 2 Nobel prizes, what gets mentioned less is that she died of radiation poisoning.

The black swan isn't a good analogy. For one, science didn't say there could only be white swans, and on the contrary, one could easily postulate that black swans could exist with a fairly minor genetic mutation (which was perhaps wiped out by natural selection in swans who lived in snowy Europe). Secondly, there was no major decision hanging on whether or not black swans existed.

A more appropriate analogy might be the discovery of geocentric solar systems in the universe, wherein a massive star orbits a much less massive planet. If such a situation were discovered, settled science would be upended.

I know we are going a bit off topic, but maybe this will be an interesting side track for the non-scientists here.

Black swans were doctrinaire enough that Taleb used them for one of his book titles.

We don't need to look at outer space for changes in paradigms.  Tectonic plate theory is a lovely example.  Continental drift was loved by biologists (all those fossil deposits lining up across continents) and geographers (look at how the continental margins fit together so nicely) but the geologists poo-pooed it because the basic mechanism didn't work.  Poor Wegener.

Then a bunch of information from various areas of geological research came together (sea-floor spreading, vulcanism, etc.) and we got plate tectonics.  Lovely theory, explained the ring of fire, the widening of the Atlantic, and all those pesky fossil patterns.  It basically revolutionized earth science.  A colleague of mine told me that when he was in University his professor came back from a conference (really THE CONFERENCE, where plate tectonics got started) and told his class to rip up all their notes, everything he had told them had been wrong.  And now plate tectonics is the underlying theory for Geology as a discipline.

Climatology has lots of information going in - we know about the various solar cycles, orbital cycles, etc.  Add in our increasing understanding of earth's internal processes and we can look at snowball earth and most of the great extinctions and tie them in with what the climate was doing, and why it was doing it.  What climatologists are basically doing now is adding another factor into the climate equation - and that factor is increasing greenhouse gases that had been sequestered.  Both long-term C that is in fossil fuels, and medium term C that is in methane deposits (permafrost and ocean methane hydrates).  At least we don't have a super-continent at the moment, that really messes up climate.

Plus we have to remember that so often science is in the details.  And things can be non-linear - often there are tipping points - change a current and you get el nino/la nina, or the monsoons come late, or the jet stream changes a bit and weather patterns move faster or slower than usual.  Climatology is messy.  So are biology and geology, all are much messier than chemistry or physics.  Too many variables.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #280 on: February 24, 2020, 08:14:03 AM »
I know we are going a bit off topic, but maybe this will be an interesting side track for the non-scientists here.

Black swans were doctrinaire enough that Taleb used them for one of his book titles.

We don't need to look at outer space for changes in paradigms.  Tectonic plate theory is a lovely example.  Continental drift was loved by biologists (all those fossil deposits lining up across continents) and geographers (look at how the continental margins fit together so nicely) but the geologists poo-pooed it because the basic mechanism didn't work.  Poor Wegener.

Then a bunch of information from various areas of geological research came together (sea-floor spreading, vulcanism, etc.) and we got plate tectonics.  Lovely theory, explained the ring of fire, the widening of the Atlantic, and all those pesky fossil patterns.  It basically revolutionized earth science.  A colleague of mine told me that when he was in University his professor came back from a conference (really THE CONFERENCE, where plate tectonics got started) and told his class to rip up all their notes, everything he had told them had been wrong.  And now plate tectonics is the underlying theory for Geology as a discipline.

Climatology has lots of information going in - we know about the various solar cycles, orbital cycles, etc.  Add in our increasing understanding of earth's internal processes and we can look at snowball earth and most of the great extinctions and tie them in with what the climate was doing, and why it was doing it.  What climatologists are basically doing now is adding another factor into the climate equation - and that factor is increasing greenhouse gases that had been sequestered.  Both long-term C that is in fossil fuels, and medium term C that is in methane deposits (permafrost and ocean methane hydrates).  At least we don't have a super-continent at the moment, that really messes up climate.

Plus we have to remember that so often science is in the details.  And things can be non-linear - often there are tipping points - change a current and you get el nino/la nina, or the monsoons come late, or the jet stream changes a bit and weather patterns move faster or slower than usual.  Climatology is messy.  So are biology and geology, all are much messier than chemistry or physics.  Too many variables.

I agree, the details are messy. I'm certain that there is a large range of uncertainty as to exactly how the climate will change with the addition of greenhouse gases. But I want to emphasize for any doubters in the audience that the science is essentially settled (perhaps not as much as the laws of gravitational physics, but certainly as much as plate tectonics).

1) In science, one wants to have a mechanism if possible (rather than just observation). The experimentally verified mechanism by which one can postulate global warming is the fact that carbon dioxide absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation. https://scied.ucar.edu/carbon-dioxide-absorbs-and-re-emits-infrared-radiation

2) Extrapolating the basic warming mechanism to the entire climate cannot be performed experimentally (because we only have one Earth), but one can develop models and verify whether the predictions of those models are accurate. The climate models have been fairly accurate in predicting the temperature rise over decades. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-well-have-climate-models-projected-global-warming

3) Perhaps most importantly for the layperson, there is complete consensus among the scientists, to include those with a conflict of interest that would bias them away from global warming. I posted earlier about all of the oil companies being in complete agreement regarding climate change. Here's another data point: Perhaps the most extensive study of climate change outside of the mainstream was that performed by Berkeley Earth (don't let the name fool you), which consists largely of a group of skeptics initially funded in large part by the Koch brothers (among others). Their results ended up mirroring that of the consensus. Here's a summary: http://berkeleyearth.org/about/. And here's a skeptic's guide: http://static.berkeleyearth.org/pdf/skeptics-guide-to-climate-change.pdf.

I am willing to accept any level of policy, including 'who cares', just so long as it is based on what is considered settled science. When people insist we don't know whether climate change is real, they are misrepresenting what everybody who studies this topic says is the case.

Edited for some funkiness that showed up. Which won't seem to go away. :(
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 08:49:43 AM by Boofinator »

StashingAway

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #281 on: February 24, 2020, 08:26:40 AM »
I am willing to accept any level of policy, including 'who cares', just so long as it is based on what is considered settled science. When people insist we don't know whether climate change is real, they are misrepresenting what everybody who studies this topic says is the case.

I'm in full agreement here. The political propaganda is so strong on this case, though, that it's hard to even communicate this sentiment.

scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #282 on: February 24, 2020, 03:54:16 PM »
I think a better analogy might be vaccinations.

Vaccinations are well known the reduce the incidence of some pretty nasty diseases.   Scientists have conducted multitudes of studies to demonstrate their effectiveness and also to demonstrate the absence of side effects.   Yes, there is some residual risk that a vaccination may have a serious side effect.   But the risk of getting the disease is substantially worse than the risk of the side effect.

No reasonable person would refuse vaccinations.

Similarly climate science isn't perfect.    It will be difficult to have accurate predictions due to modelling errors and unexpected non-linear effects.   But no reasonable person would say that our production of greenhouse gases isn't effecting climate change.

Just like we have a group of anti-vaxxers, we have a group of climate deniers.    Being dogmatic is unlikely to convince anyone of the opposite point of view.   Climate deniers are afraid that they'll have to give up their cars, their vacations, their fresh produce in winter and central heating and air conditioning.    Even folks who promote climate science are generally unwilling to consider much of this.   This is not a fight we can win directly.

As an engineer, I'm much happier to avoid the dogma, and proceed with the rational approach.    I know this sometimes comes across as climate skepticism or even denial.   But I believe that we need to harness social forces (perhaps like the ongoing innovation with electric vehicles) and make things happen through an unstoppable tide of progress.     Spending our energy on effective means is much better than fighting with people who don't agree and aren't interested.

Many industries hate the notion of reducing our dependency on oil and other fossil fuels.   That hasn't stopped Tesla and Toyota and Honda and even GM from making hybrid and electrical cars, and people are buying them.   
Solar cells on your roof was a pipe dream when I was growing up.   Imagine - free electricity from your roofing!    Things are changing and we should look for ways to accelerate the change.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #283 on: February 24, 2020, 04:32:01 PM »
I think a better analogy might be vaccinations.

Vaccinations are well known the reduce the incidence of some pretty nasty diseases.   Scientists have conducted multitudes of studies to demonstrate their effectiveness and also to demonstrate the absence of side effects.   Yes, there is some residual risk that a vaccination may have a serious side effect.   But the risk of getting the disease is substantially worse than the risk of the side effect.

No reasonable person would refuse vaccinations.

Similarly climate science isn't perfect.    It will be difficult to have accurate predictions due to modelling errors and unexpected non-linear effects.   But no reasonable person would say that our production of greenhouse gases isn't effecting climate change.

Just like we have a group of anti-vaxxers, we have a group of climate deniers.    Being dogmatic is unlikely to convince anyone of the opposite point of view.   Climate deniers are afraid that they'll have to give up their cars, their vacations, their fresh produce in winter and central heating and air conditioning.    Even folks who promote climate science are generally unwilling to consider much of this.   This is not a fight we can win directly.

As an engineer, I'm much happier to avoid the dogma, and proceed with the rational approach.    I know this sometimes comes across as climate skepticism or even denial.   But I believe that we need to harness social forces (perhaps like the ongoing innovation with electric vehicles) and make things happen through an unstoppable tide of progress.     Spending our energy on effective means is much better than fighting with people who don't agree and aren't interested.

Many industries hate the notion of reducing our dependency on oil and other fossil fuels.   That hasn't stopped Tesla and Toyota and Honda and even GM from making hybrid and electrical cars, and people are buying them.   
Solar cells on your roof was a pipe dream when I was growing up.   Imagine - free electricity from your roofing!    Things are changing and we should look for ways to accelerate the change.

I wish I could see things the same way as you, but as I see it almost all of the progress in stemming the runaway carbon train (with the exception of coal's increasingly marginal position) has been due to the staunch beliefs of early proponents (even if those beliefs were unrelated to climate), not due to some wave of progress.* Progress, if anything, has resulted in unrestrained growth for carbon pollution since fossil fuels were discovered.

Here's my quibble with the vaccination analogy: anti-vaxxers only experience personal repercussions (for the most part), whereas climate denialists collectively result in global repercussions with little to no personal repercussions. Historically, the only way to fight these tragedy of the commons type scenarios is through government action. (A better analogy would be overfished fisheries, where it makes little economic sense for any individual fisherman to reduce fishing, but a lot of sense for collective reduction of catch.)

*As evidence, I submit the historical cost and performance of solar panels and electric cars, which until recently did not come close to their polluting counterparts.

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #284 on: February 25, 2020, 08:52:22 AM »
Give citizens the $ back, and without even trying they will consume less things that are carbon intensive just because of the cost.

I'm not entirely sure that this assumption is true.  Our federal government implemented a carbon tax, and allowed the provinces to choose what to do with the money collected - they just had to submit a plan.  Here in Ontario we've elected a Conservative provincial government who decided that the free market approach to climate change was a stupid idea and they didn't want to be a part of it.  So they didn't submit a plan . . . forcing the Ontario government to simply remit the carbon tax proceeds to all the people in Ontario.

I haven't noticed any change at all in consumption habits at all from the carbon tax and rebate - which currently charges 20$ per ton of carbon to increase to 50$ by 2022 (works out to around 300$ per person per year in Ontario).  And even though the increase in price has been so minimal that nobody has altered their habits, there's significant political blowback and complaining from Conservatives in Canada.

I'd be interested in seeing the numbers after a few years of this. So far, your evidence that it doesn't work appears to be anecdotal. The fee and dividend model seems to be highly favored by economists, which is why I am so interested in it. If presented right, it also has the most potential to be supported by conservatives (free market) than any of the other drastic changes that are being submitted. It has "conservative" written all over it other than those who outright deny climate change.

Hey, here's hoping.  But at 300$ ish a year (and those are Canadian dollars . . . that's like what - 200$ US?), I suspect there will be minimal change to people's habits.

Conservatives have moved further and further away from being financially conservative in recent years.  Our current conservative government paid thousands of dollars of our tax money and legally required that all gas stations in the province to prominently display anti-carbon tax advertising.

The conservative governments of Alberta, Ontario, and Saskatchewan have all raised legal challenges the carbon tax and the results are in.  Ontario/Saskatchewan court of appeals have dismissed the challenges . . . but interestingly, in the most conservative province in Canada . . . the Alberta court of appeals has upheld them (on the grounds that a tax on carbon is too big and expansive a problem for the federal government to make rules about).  So it will go to Canada's supreme court in a couple months to determine an outcome.

This case will determine whether conservative governments in Canada can legally continue to prevent people from having to pay the costs of their pollution.

scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #285 on: February 25, 2020, 07:35:06 PM »
I find the opposition to the carbon tax a little weird.    The government gives everyone a rebate on the tax, so it has little financial impact, except for the really heavy users.

In particular, Alberta seems to be taking it as a personal affront!    I sure hope they manage to diversify their economy, though historically this doesn't look good.    We're considering moving back there...

scottish

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #286 on: February 25, 2020, 07:37:57 PM »
I think a better analogy might be vaccinations.

Vaccinations are well known the reduce the incidence of some pretty nasty diseases.   Scientists have conducted multitudes of studies to demonstrate their effectiveness and also to demonstrate the absence of side effects.   Yes, there is some residual risk that a vaccination may have a serious side effect.   But the risk of getting the disease is substantially worse than the risk of the side effect.

No reasonable person would refuse vaccinations.

Similarly climate science isn't perfect.    It will be difficult to have accurate predictions due to modelling errors and unexpected non-linear effects.   But no reasonable person would say that our production of greenhouse gases isn't effecting climate change.

Just like we have a group of anti-vaxxers, we have a group of climate deniers.    Being dogmatic is unlikely to convince anyone of the opposite point of view.   Climate deniers are afraid that they'll have to give up their cars, their vacations, their fresh produce in winter and central heating and air conditioning.    Even folks who promote climate science are generally unwilling to consider much of this.   This is not a fight we can win directly.

As an engineer, I'm much happier to avoid the dogma, and proceed with the rational approach.    I know this sometimes comes across as climate skepticism or even denial.   But I believe that we need to harness social forces (perhaps like the ongoing innovation with electric vehicles) and make things happen through an unstoppable tide of progress.     Spending our energy on effective means is much better than fighting with people who don't agree and aren't interested.

Many industries hate the notion of reducing our dependency on oil and other fossil fuels.   That hasn't stopped Tesla and Toyota and Honda and even GM from making hybrid and electrical cars, and people are buying them.   
Solar cells on your roof was a pipe dream when I was growing up.   Imagine - free electricity from your roofing!    Things are changing and we should look for ways to accelerate the change.

I wish I could see things the same way as you, but as I see it almost all of the progress in stemming the runaway carbon train (with the exception of coal's increasingly marginal position) has been due to the staunch beliefs of early proponents (even if those beliefs were unrelated to climate), not due to some wave of progress.* Progress, if anything, has resulted in unrestrained growth for carbon pollution since fossil fuels were discovered.

Here's my quibble with the vaccination analogy: anti-vaxxers only experience personal repercussions (for the most part), whereas climate denialists collectively result in global repercussions with little to no personal repercussions. Historically, the only way to fight these tragedy of the commons type scenarios is through government action. (A better analogy would be overfished fisheries, where it makes little economic sense for any individual fisherman to reduce fishing, but a lot of sense for collective reduction of catch.)

*As evidence, I submit the historical cost and performance of solar panels and electric cars, which until recently did not come close to their polluting counterparts.

Vaccination programs lead to herd immunity.   Not global, but it does have a wider ranging impact if people opt out.

You're right about government regulation working to deal with the 'tragedy of the commons.'    There's little political will to do this for climate change.   At least not yet.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #287 on: February 29, 2020, 04:20:01 PM »
Remember too that just because fossil fuels aren't involved doesn't mean there's no impact.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-01/tech-companies-rely-child-labour-abuse-to-mine-coltan-in-congo/11855258

To reduce your impact, consume less - of everything.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 08:53:32 PM by Kyle Schuant »

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #288 on: February 29, 2020, 07:56:42 PM »
Remember too that just because fossil fuels aren't involved doesn't mean there's no impact.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-01/tech-companies-rely-child-labour-abuse-to-mine-coltan-in-congo/11855258

To reduce your impact, consume less - of everything.

How do you approach that as someone who is in a field devoted to waste?  The entire exercise industry is designed to burn calories needlessly, and has encouraged quite a few fad diets that are environmentally damaging.  The equipment you use to train people is wasteful and unnecessary.  At best it's prolonging the lives of people - thereby increasing the waste and environmental damage that they'll be able to cause in their lives.

Serious question as I'm into fitness as well.  On a hundred forty klick bike ride, I burn five or six thousand calories.  It makes me feel great, but involves lots of waste in terms of chain/cassette wear, cables that need to be replaced, calories required, tires that wear out.  Environmentally it would be better if I was sedentary and unfit.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #289 on: February 29, 2020, 09:38:01 PM »
That's one way to look at it.

However, exercise alone doesn't lose people much if any weight, they also have to consume less calories. As well, if their focus is health they need to consume more nutrients. I mean, the overweight person could change from 3,000kCal a day of doughnuts to 1,500kCal and lose weight, but for optimal health they're better off with 2,000kCal of fruit, vegies, nuts, wholegrains, beans and fish.

Generally speaking, processed food is less friendly to the environment and more wasteful than whole fresh foods. Obviously as it's processed there are losses of energy both in the processing and the food itself, but as well processed food generally has more packaging, and because it can be transported across the world is more likely to be. Your Uncle Toby's muesli bar probably has more miles in it than your bag of oats, your bottle of applesauce more miles than some apples.

Now, as for "fitness". Well, fitness means "the ability to perform a task." If the "task" is health, well you don't need to cycle 140km for your health any more than you need to squat 140kg for your health. If it's just for your health, then a 30-60' walk, or 150-200% of that cycling, well that's plenty. And so there we're talking about a commuting length of ride, rather than a dedicated ride.

As for the resource consumption of it, unless you have a truly top of the line carbon fibre bicycle, it's really not very much - certainly not compared to machine-powered transport. Likewise weights - barbells last a pretty long time, and are 100% recyclable.

So if we're talking about fitness for health, then the food consumption is actually far less wasteful than the typical Western diet, and the resource consumption for the exercise part of it likewise.

If you want to critique the fitness world on the basis of wasteful use of resources, you can say that we only exist because of a massive energy surplus, ie fossil fuels. Historically people ate good food because junk food simply wasn't available, and they were physically active because they had to be to be able to eat. Junk food can only exist because of massive energy surpluses, and people can only be sedentary because of the same.

In the middle ages, 10 out of every 11 people were involved in food production; 10 people were needed to produce enough surplus food to keep 1 other person going, so that person could be a noble, priest, blacksmith or whatever. Various low-resource technologies like literacy and crop rotation took us from 90% farming down to 25-50%, but fossil fuels and their derivatives have taken it down to 2% or less.

Because people can eat crap food, they do, and because they can earn their keep without sweating, they do. Which if they do for a few years leads to their being fat, sick and weak. So the fitness industry only exists because of a massive surplus of energy in the form of fossil fuels. In a century or two it won't exist, or it'll just be someone training a nobleman how to fight, that sort of thing.

But in a century or two there are a lot of jobs which won't exist or will be greatly diminished in importance. Halve our oil consumption and take us down to 1kWh a day of electricity consumption and we won't have as many Personal Trainers, but also not as many Set Intimacy Co-Ordinators, Diversity Managers, Public Relations Consultants, Stockbrokers, IT Support Teams, and so on.


Consider what mobile phones might cost if Solange (see above abc article) and her colleagues had to be paid even US minimum wage. From USD21 pw to 290 or so. Oh and some workplace safety laws in her mine, too. We wouldn't be replacing our mobile phones each year.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 10:27:02 PM by Kyle Schuant »

LennStar

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #290 on: March 01, 2020, 03:47:34 AM »
WE aren't doing it anyway. There are people out there who get a new $500-1000 phone very two years though.

It's the result of consumerism and the notion that people who don't work their asses off are somehow morally bad persons.  (The favorite right wing line: Immigrants just come here for the free food. They all want something for nothing - and they take away our jobs!!)

StashingAway

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #291 on: March 01, 2020, 05:42:51 AM »
Remember too that just because fossil fuels aren't involved doesn't mean there's no impact.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-01/tech-companies-rely-child-labour-abuse-to-mine-coltan-in-congo/11855258

To reduce your impact, consume less - of everything.

Serious question as I'm into fitness as well.  On a hundred forty klick bike ride, I burn five or six thousand calories.  It makes me feel great, but involves lots of waste in terms of chain/cassette wear, cables that need to be replaced, calories required, tires that wear out.  Environmentally it would be better if I was sedentary and unfit.

Thoughts on this:

Being healthy almost surely results in lower consumption of healthcare resources. Whether that be a supply chain of meds, medical equipemtnt, hospital rooms, doctors, etc. It takes a lot of energy and backup resources to keep a hospital going. Now, if you do a lot of risky sports, needing PT and that I'd imagine it gets to a more of a break-even circumstance. Or if you do sports that require more than a few ounces of steel every few hundred miles to perform, such as wake boarding or sky diving or the like.

I don't have the numbers on this, and I'm sure it varies wildly based on what food you eat. A vegetarian local foods bicyclist will cause less environmental impact than a waygu-beef eating sedentary person even if they're doubling the calories. A triathlete competing in exotic locations multiple times a year will consume far more resources than an enthusiast cruising local routes every weekend, even if the triathlete is exercising half the amount of time, etc.

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!