Author Topic: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change  (Read 20976 times)

Shane

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Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« on: February 06, 2020, 10:03:52 PM »
The solution to climate change seems pretty straight forward to me. If burning fossil fuels is warming the planet, wouldn't a logical solution would be for us to burn less fossil fuels?

Recently, talking with regular (non Mustachian) people we meet, I've suggested various solutions, like, "How about we start encouraging more Americans to begin transitioning away from sedentary, car based lifestyles?" Seems like a no brainer to me. We'd burn less fossil fuels, emit less greenhouse gases, and humans would get more exercise by walking, riding a bike, etc. People sometimes nod their heads and passively agree with this statement but, more often, they say something along the lines of, "It'll never work. Americans are NEVER going to give up their cars."

When I start suggesting practical ways we might gently nudge average Americans to step out of their comfort zone and encourage them to start walking, cycling or taking public transport, their resistance starts to get more fierce. Yesterday, in a neighborhood online forum I suggested it might be a good idea for us to start gradually increasing the costs of car ownership. For example, I said, maybe we could get our city to start charging homeowners a fee to park their vehicles on publicly owned streets, and maybe we could encourage our state to start gradually increasing fuel taxes to make gasoline more expensive to encourage people to drive less and to raise revenue that could be used to improve public transport, build more bike lanes, etc. These ideas seemed like fairly straight forward, common sense, Econ 101 ways to push people to use their cars less, or to get rid of them altogether, but people in my neighborhood came out of the woodwork to attack me and my ideas.

Their main complaints seemed to be:

-Gas is already too expensive!

-There's no way I will EVER pay the city to park in front of my own god damn house!

-What about the poor people? How do you expect them to be able to afford to pay to park AND pay higher prices for gas? These ideas are crazy!

-What about all the people who *have* to drive long distances between their homes (in rural areas, 50+ miles outside our city) to come in to work every day? How can you expect them to pay more for gas AND pay to park too? This is nuts!

So, I asked my neighbors, "Well, what do you guys propose we do, then?"...crickets..........

Just feeling kind of frustrated. I mean, personally, I'm not that worried about climate change. We have enough money and are flexible enough that we'll be fine, pretty much no matter what happens. Poor people, people who are living paycheck to paycheck, probably are going to be the ones who will suffer the most, IMHO. Interestingly, middle class and up people are always the ones who trot out "poor people" as a kind of prop, I think, to justify their own wasteful lifestyles and unwillingness to change. I'm just feeling like, Why should I even care? Cheap gas is great for me and my family. Free parking? That's good for us too. I'd be willing to pay more for those things, because I think it might help to slowly begin weaning Americans off of their 100% car-based lifestyle, but if nobody else is willing to give up anything. at. all, why should I bother?

We've been keeping our thermostat set at 64F-67F. Over Christmas, we left town for a few days, and just shut the furnace off, because the forecast wasn't calling for the temperature to fall below freezing. The same neighbors who insist they can't go ANYWHERE without their cars, have also told us they like to keep their thermostats set at between 75F-80F... wtf?

I'm just feeling kinda hopeless. I mean, if 99% of Americans are unwilling to make even very small changes in their lives, what hope is there?

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2020, 10:46:49 PM »
I am very worried about climate change, and I can’t get myself to change my lifestyle. I honestly think our only hope is adaptation to adjust to harsher weather and rising sea levels. Not sure what that means for a reliable food supply. Peak oil was a hope in that it had the potential to make petroleum uncompetitive relative to renewables, but fracking and other technological advancements have kept the oil flowing smoothly and cheaply. Costs for wind and solar keep dropping though, and storage options keep improving. The long term technology trends are favorable, and better value ultimately wins in the market. If people can make a buck through less carbon intensive energy options, maybe we can avoid the worst potential effects of warming. 

Hirondelle

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2020, 02:18:05 AM »
I would start focusing on the win-win-win situations first. So things that reduce your costs/increase comfort AND reduce fossil fuel use.

Examples are solar panels and home insulation. It's pretty easy to make money on your solar panels in just a couple years, saving lots on utilities costs. If you then also get an EV your gasoline costs also evaporate :). Also many people's houses are fairly poorly insulated and just cheap updates can result in dramatic savings. Even the most die hard climate change deniers usually still like to save money on gasoline and utility costs so it's a way to move/motivate them.

Will these things save the world from climate change? Surely they won't, but if everyone does it, it will be at least some drops in the bucket. Plus by the time we get to more rigorous measures you will be better prepared if you've already made adaptations (e.g. be responsible for your own electricity/not needing gas if gas costs increase etc).

former player

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2020, 04:20:30 AM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2020, 05:28:35 AM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.


haha!

ReadySetMillionaire

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2020, 05:53:35 AM »
In just for the great use of muggles.

My position has always been that forward thinking companies (and countries), who know regulation is coming, are able to get an advantage by meeting what the population wants ahead of time.

For instance, I was just watching PBS's American Experience episode called The Poison Squad, which discussed a government scientist's crazy experiments to get food regulated: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/poison-squad/

One of the interesting takeaways was that the companies who figured out how to make great food that did not need all these horrible preservatives were able to get an advantage -- and we still eat their products today.  Heinz was discussed at length for this, as they figured out how to make a more acidic and vinegar ketchup formula that had natural shelf life.

Transfer that to climate change/green energy -- I have no idea why people can't realize how much of a capitalist and societal advantage we would have if we became the world leader in green technology.  Green energy, green transportion, solar panels, all of it.  We could be the world leader like we were with steel.  Oh, AND it would be a win-win for the environment.  What's not to like?

So basically -- appeal to their business instincts has always been my approach. 

Kris

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2020, 06:03:18 AM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.

Ditto.

freya

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2020, 06:30:09 AM »
I would LOVE for most of the country to move to a limited-car lifestyle, because that means people would be living in the kind of walkable neighborhoods that used to exist before the 1950s (when the car companies did things like destroy the Los Angeles trolley system in order to force more people to buy cars).   Now we have sprawling suburbs, and it would be prohibitively expensive to undo all that.  I really don't know the answer. 

I think the first thing to do here is:  BUY LOCAL.  As much as you can.  Energy, produce and other foods, appliances etc.  And put tariffs on international imports. No one thinks about the pollution produced by giant cargo ships bringing our cheap crap from China, Vietnam, Thailand etc, but just one of those ships produces more greenhouse gas than the entire US auto fleet. So messing around with reducing gasoline use is basically rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, compared to shifting consumer goods production to the US.  (And btw that cheap crap from overseas makes only a brief stop in your home on its way to the landfill - yet another problem.)

meghan88

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2020, 07:40:35 AM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.

Ditto.

Me three.  And I'm prepared to be increasingly disappointed over the next 20-30 years.  Thinking back to about 45 years ago and despite minimal thought being given back then to all things environmental, the world seemed a lot cleaner, simply because there were half the number of humans as there are today.  And certainly a whole lot less westernized humans with cars, fridges, electronics, etc.

bacchi

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2020, 08:51:46 AM »
We'll change when it becomes bluntly obvious: flooding in Miami and Long Island and Houston, massive crop failures in the midwest, 130 degree summers in Phoenix.

Until then, it's business as usual.

the_gastropod

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2020, 08:58:01 AM »
just one of those ships produces more greenhouse gas than the entire US auto fleet.

Do you have a source for this? Just given my rudimentary understanding of physics, I have a very hard time believing this.

Slow2FIRE

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2020, 09:05:26 AM »
From what I understand, cargo ships are quite efficient for the amount of goods transported wrt greenhouse emissions.  They are terrible polluters of the sort of combustion byproducts that kill you today though.

I would suggest that going after industry with regulations is more impactful than trying to convince a few individuals.  Ask the concrete industry to reduce emissions and give them timelines and goals, apply this to other industries as well, as an example.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2020, 09:11:32 AM »
I'm just feeling kinda hopeless. I mean, if 99% of Americans are unwilling to make even very small changes in their lives, what hope is there?

Ha ha ha. Welcome to reality, my friend. Yes, climate change could be conquered easily if we had the individual incentive to do so. We don't. At least not yet.

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2020, 09:23:59 AM »
Transfer that to climate change/green energy -- I have no idea why people can't realize how much of a capitalist and societal advantage we would have if we became the world leader in green technology.  Green energy, green transportion, solar panels, all of it.  We could be the world leader like we were with steel.  Oh, AND it would be a win-win for the environment.  What's not to like?

But.... muh oil!! How can I own the libs if I admit they are right???

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2020, 09:25:48 AM »
I'm just feeling kinda hopeless. I mean, if 99% of Americans are unwilling to make even very small changes in their lives, what hope is there?

Ha ha ha. Welcome to reality, my friend. Yes, climate change could be conquered easily if we had the individual incentive to do so. We don't. At least not yet.

Change is hard.  There is a large block of people who have been lying for a long time that change isn't necessary . . . so if you're not paying too close attention (or don't want to hear the truth) it's easy to look the other way and pretend there's no problem and no reason to change what you've been doing.

At some point things will become so catastrophically bad that the truth is unavoidable, but until that happens I don't see much hope for change.  Of course, when that happens it may be too late for the change to be effective.  :P

Kris

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2020, 09:41:22 AM »
Transfer that to climate change/green energy -- I have no idea why people can't realize how much of a capitalist and societal advantage we would have if we became the world leader in green technology.  Green energy, green transportion, solar panels, all of it.  We could be the world leader like we were with steel.  Oh, AND it would be a win-win for the environment.  What's not to like?

But.... muh oil!! How can I own the libs if I admit they are right???

I literally think this is what it is. People on the right can’t realize the advantage we would have because they would have to first admit that something lefties like is a good idea.

vern

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Kris

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2020, 10:17:57 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkPi-6qf0sk

Oh, look, this old saw. Anyone who has ever used a fossil fuel is a hypocrite who should never say anything about climate change.

:eyeroll:

beltim

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2020, 10:26:26 AM »
I would LOVE for most of the country to move to a limited-car lifestyle, because that means people would be living in the kind of walkable neighborhoods that used to exist before the 1950s (when the car companies did things like destroy the Los Angeles trolley system in order to force more people to buy cars).   Now we have sprawling suburbs, and it would be prohibitively expensive to undo all that.  I really don't know the answer. 

I think the first thing to do here is:  BUY LOCAL.  As much as you can.  Energy, produce and other foods, appliances etc.  And put tariffs on international imports. No one thinks about the pollution produced by giant cargo ships bringing our cheap crap from China, Vietnam, Thailand etc, but just one of those ships produces more greenhouse gas than the entire US auto fleet. So messing around with reducing gasoline use is basically rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, compared to shifting consumer goods production to the US.  (And btw that cheap crap from overseas makes only a brief stop in your home on its way to the landfill - yet another problem.)

The bolded is nowhere close to true.  Total global cargo ship CO2 emissions are about 1 billion tons.1  The US auto fleet is twice that at 2 billion tons per year.2  Manufacturing, by the way, produces about 6.5 billion tons of CO2 per year.3  Unfortunately, buying local is not the panacea you wish it to be.

Please check your facts before you spout nonsense.

1. https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Global-shipping-GHG-emissions-2013-2015_ICCT-Report_17102017_vF.pdf
2.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/01/vehicles-climate-change-emissions-trump-administration
3.https://www.statista.com/statistics/276480/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-sector/

Just Joe

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2020, 10:47:01 AM »
I don't think the way to make changes happen in the USA is anything involving raising taxes. I do however think you can make changes and then raise taxes to pay for it slowly later.

Rather than force people to pay more fees to own a car and to drive it, quietly build bike paths, allow people to use golfcarts near their homes, re-organize streets so there is less neighborhood traffic so people consider walking or biking more, build shops with apartments above, more bike racks around town, more events that people can attend and walk to, etc.

Over time the adjustments are made, people learn to love the adjustments - and meanwhile taxes and fees are gently and slowly adjusted to help pay for things.

This way it isn't conservatives vs liberals, big business versus city government, etc. Places people WANT to live are created.

When I talk to people here (red state) they would never consider riding a bike on errands or to commute to work b/c it is unsafe. And it is dicey in places. People won't walk because the places they shop include a 40 acre parking lot out front. Walking from store to store with shopping is a ridiculous idea. A mall is functionally better perhaps. A rejuvenated neighborhood with shops is better.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 10:52:54 AM by Just Joe »

PDXTabs

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2020, 10:50:24 AM »
Human beings did not evolve to deal with problems as far ahead in the future as climate change, and we may be de-evolving as I type. Specifically, farmers used to plan for one or two seasons into the future, lest they starve to death. Now everyone lives paycheck to paycheck. Don't expect action on climate change until things are literally on fire.

PDXTabs

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2020, 10:55:21 AM »
I don't the way to make changes happen in the USA is anything involving raising taxes. I do however think you can make changes and then raise taxes to pay for it slowly later.

Rather than force people to pay more fees to own a car and to drive it, quietly build bike paths, allow people to use golfcarts near their homes, re-organize streets so there is less neighborhood traffic so people consider walking or biking more, build shops with apartments above, more bike racks around town, more events that people can attend and walk to, etc.

See my pervious point? Americans have forgotten what it is like to struggle for anything. The silent and greatest generation are mostly gone and replaced with people who can't fathom what it would be like to live in a world where they can't drive their SUV to Starbucks in the morning.

Over time...

Time is the one thing that we absolutely do not have. For further reading please see The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells.

Just Joe

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2020, 10:57:20 AM »
I'm not sure politics could get out of the way of the changes we need in this country.

PDXTabs

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2020, 11:31:10 AM »
I'm not sure politics could get out of the way of the changes we need in this country.

Well I agree with you there. At this rate the US will be the last holdout for actually doing something about climate change.

MoseyingAlong

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2020, 11:40:03 AM »
.... At this rate the US will be the last holdout for actually doing something about climate change.

Except for providing the business environment where Tesla and others are experimenting and hopefully coming up with some great products.

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #25 on: February 07, 2020, 11:44:43 AM »
.... At this rate the US will be the last holdout for actually doing something about climate change.

Except for providing the business environment where Tesla and others are experimenting and hopefully coming up with some great products.

. . . while also being the key business environment directly to blame for the bulk of climate change.  Outsourcing the dirty production of all the stuff people in a country buy every year doesn't actually make the world cleaner.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2020, 11:52:39 AM »
I am very worried about climate change, and I can’t get myself to change my lifestyle. I honestly think our only hope is adaptation to adjust to harsher weather and rising sea levels. Not sure what that means for a reliable food supply. Peak oil was a hope in that it had the potential to make petroleum uncompetitive relative to renewables, but fracking and other technological advancements have kept the oil flowing smoothly and cheaply. Costs for wind and solar keep dropping though, and storage options keep improving. The long term technology trends are favorable, and better value ultimately wins in the market. If people can make a buck through less carbon intensive energy options, maybe we can avoid the worst potential effects of warming.

Hopefully, you're right that "long term technology trends are favorable." Bill Gates supported TerraPower's innovative traveling wave reactor concept sounds really interesting. Unfortunately, tensions between the Trump Administration and the Chinese government recently forced TerraPower to shut down the small demonstration power plant project it was building in China. The cool thing about TerraPower's traveling wave reactor is that it can consume the waste produced by currently used nuclear reactors. It's also meant to be cheaper to build and produce energy than conventional reactors. Let's hope Bill Gates and TerraPower are successful at getting permission to build a test reactor somewhere in the US.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2020, 12:51:11 PM »
I would start focusing on the win-win-win situations first. So things that reduce your costs/increase comfort AND reduce fossil fuel use.

Examples are solar panels and home insulation. It's pretty easy to make money on your solar panels in just a couple years, saving lots on utilities costs. If you then also get an EV your gasoline costs also evaporate :). Also many people's houses are fairly poorly insulated and just cheap updates can result in dramatic savings. Even the most die hard climate change deniers usually still like to save money on gasoline and utility costs so it's a way to move/motivate them.

Will these things save the world from climate change? Surely they won't, but if everyone does it, it will be at least some drops in the bucket. Plus by the time we get to more rigorous measures you will be better prepared if you've already made adaptations (e.g. be responsible for your own electricity/not needing gas if gas costs increase etc).

Focusing on win-win-win solutions sounds like a great idea to me. Most people don't agree, but I think walking, riding a bike or taking public transport whenever reasonably possible is a good idea, not just because it would produce less pollution and greenhouse gases but, also, because it would make us all healthier and save us lots of money. Pretty much no one I know, though, is willing to go to the lengths (which don't seem, at all, extreme to me) that my family and I do. For example, even in the middle of winter when temperatures are below freezing, we regularly bundle up and walk 1 mile, each way, to the theater on Friday or Saturday evenings, to see plays/musicals. Our neighbors think we're INSANE to leave our paid for, almost brand new car sitting parked in front of our house and walk a mile(!) to the theater. I'm surprised none of them have called Child Protective Services on us yet to report this child abuse we are inflicting on our daughter. :(

As far as convincing people where we live now to install solar panels on their homes goes, I'm pretty sure it would be a huge uphill battle, mostly because electricity costs are extremely low here. Right now, we're paying only $0.063/KWh for electricity. I have literally never seen even one house in our city with solar panels on it, maybe because it would take soooooooo long for the savings to pay for themselves that nobody is interested in financing it? Where we used to live, residential electricity cost $0.37/KWh, and there many, many people, including us, had PV arrays, as well as solar hot water systems mounted on their roofs. Another obstacle to solar in the city where we live now is the fact that the homes in our neighborhood are all ~120 years old and, thus, protected under the city's historic preservation statutes. Probably, to get permits to put solar panels on a roof, a homeowner would have to show that they wouldn't be visible from the street, which wouldn't be hard, but probably we would also have to rebuild the entire roof of the house, because I'm pretty sure these old houses weren't built to withstand the extra weight of a solar array being mounted to them.

As far as insulating the houses in our neighborhood goes, probably the change that would make the biggest difference for the most homeowners would be for them to get rid of their old, single pane, wooden windows and replace them with modern multi-pane insulated windows. Unfortunately, because of our city's historic preservation statutes, all windows facing the front street must be made of wood or appear to be made of wood. We've heard of quotes around $2K/window from Anderson for conforming windows. The big expense is why most of our neighbors just keep their old wooden windows, most of which don't open and close any more. Now problem, though, because our neighbors never open or close their windows, anyway. Why should they when they can just run their central heating/AC 365 days/year? :(

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2020, 12:54:27 PM »
In just for the great use of muggles.

My position has always been that forward thinking companies (and countries), who know regulation is coming, are able to get an advantage by meeting what the population wants ahead of time.

For instance, I was just watching PBS's American Experience episode called The Poison Squad, which discussed a government scientist's crazy experiments to get food regulated: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/poison-squad/

One of the interesting takeaways was that the companies who figured out how to make great food that did not need all these horrible preservatives were able to get an advantage -- and we still eat their products today.  Heinz was discussed at length for this, as they figured out how to make a more acidic and vinegar ketchup formula that had natural shelf life.

Transfer that to climate change/green energy -- I have no idea why people can't realize how much of a capitalist and societal advantage we would have if we became the world leader in green technology.  Green energy, green transportion, solar panels, all of it.  We could be the world leader like we were with steel.  Oh, AND it would be a win-win for the environment.  What's not to like?

So basically -- appeal to their business instincts has always been my approach.

The US becoming a world leader in green technology sure sounds like a winning idea to me!

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2020, 12:58:28 PM »
I would LOVE for most of the country to move to a limited-car lifestyle, because that means people would be living in the kind of walkable neighborhoods that used to exist before the 1950s (when the car companies did things like destroy the Los Angeles trolley system in order to force more people to buy cars).   Now we have sprawling suburbs, and it would be prohibitively expensive to undo all that.  I really don't know the answer. 

I think the first thing to do here is:  BUY LOCAL.  As much as you can.  Energy, produce and other foods, appliances etc.  And put tariffs on international imports. No one thinks about the pollution produced by giant cargo ships bringing our cheap crap from China, Vietnam, Thailand etc, but just one of those ships produces more greenhouse gas than the entire US auto fleet. So messing around with reducing gasoline use is basically rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, compared to shifting consumer goods production to the US.  (And btw that cheap crap from overseas makes only a brief stop in your home on its way to the landfill - yet another problem.)

We're all about living in a walkable neighborhood and buying local. We specifically moved to our current LCOL area because it's possible to live well here, while using a car very little, if at all. It's bewildering to me that 99% of our neighbors still get in their cars and drive everywhere, bitching the whole time about how hard it is to find a parking spot when they get back home. We use our car so little, that parking is a complete non issue for us. Occasionally, if we come home in the car late at night we have to park a block or two from our house, but so what? That doesn't bother us at all. Everyone else, seems to have a different take on that.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #30 on: February 07, 2020, 01:04:54 PM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.

Ditto.

Me three.  And I'm prepared to be increasingly disappointed over the next 20-30 years.  Thinking back to about 45 years ago and despite minimal thought being given back then to all things environmental, the world seemed a lot cleaner, simply because there were half the number of humans as there are today.  And certainly a whole lot less westernized humans with cars, fridges, electronics, etc.

Cutting population is another thing I've attempted to talk with people about, to little or no avail. To me, it seems completely reasonable to discuss possibly cutting our population in half (or more). Americans don't want to hear about that, though. I mean, they're fine with talking about forcing other people, especially brown people in other countries they'll probably never visit, to have fewer children, but try suggesting that Americans, God's Chosen People, should have fewer children, and they'll be coming for you with pitchforks.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #31 on: February 07, 2020, 01:06:18 PM »
We'll change when it becomes bluntly obvious: flooding in Miami and Long Island and Houston, massive crop failures in the midwest, 130 degree summers in Phoenix.

Until then, it's business as usual.

Pretty sure you're right, @bacchi   :(

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #32 on: February 07, 2020, 01:12:03 PM »
I'm just feeling kinda hopeless. I mean, if 99% of Americans are unwilling to make even very small changes in their lives, what hope is there?

Ha ha ha. Welcome to reality, my friend. Yes, climate change could be conquered easily if we had the individual incentive to do so. We don't. At least not yet.

Change is hard.  There is a large block of people who have been lying for a long time that change isn't necessary . . . so if you're not paying too close attention (or don't want to hear the truth) it's easy to look the other way and pretend there's no problem and no reason to change what you've been doing.

At some point things will become so catastrophically bad that the truth is unavoidable, but until that happens I don't see much hope for change.  Of course, when that happens it may be too late for the change to be effective.  :P

It's sad, but I think you guys are right. Until things get so bad people *have* to change, probably most won't do anything, at all.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #33 on: February 07, 2020, 01:15:59 PM »
Transfer that to climate change/green energy -- I have no idea why people can't realize how much of a capitalist and societal advantage we would have if we became the world leader in green technology.  Green energy, green transportion, solar panels, all of it.  We could be the world leader like we were with steel.  Oh, AND it would be a win-win for the environment.  What's not to like?

But.... muh oil!! How can I own the libs if I admit they are right???

I literally think this is what it is. People on the right can’t realize the advantage we would have because they would have to first admit that something lefties like is a good idea.

And what makes it even more bizarre is that many Trump supporters would actually benefit from adopting green technologies even more than us lefties, but they're still against it, just 'cause we want it.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #34 on: February 07, 2020, 01:22:03 PM »
At some point things will become so catastrophically bad that the truth is unavoidable, but until that happens I don't see much hope for change.  Of course, when that happens it may be too late for the change to be effective.  :P

The problem I see is twofold: 1) climate change will never become catastrophically bad because the change is glacial (that pun may become archaic if we keep things up), thereby giving people time to adapt and see a shittier world as the new normal, and 2) the short-term individual economic disincentives for action on climate change are strong, whereas the long-term individual economic incentives are extremely weak.

I am personally convinced that meaningful change could happen, but that it would likely have to come from the leadership on the right (as compared to a supermajority on the left). That way, conservatives can rah rah that their party did something, liberals can swallow the plan as advancing their goals, and the plan would have a meaningful economic basis so that it doesn't get overturned in a short period of time following the next transfer of power. Needless to say, I'm not holding my breath.

iris lily

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #35 on: February 07, 2020, 01:23:21 PM »
I'm past the stage of thinking that money will save me from climate change, what will save me is that I am old enough that I will be dead before it gets really bad and I don't have children or grandchildren to worry about.


haha!

You can laugh, but that’s pretty much my attitude as well.

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #36 on: February 07, 2020, 01:26:25 PM »
At some point things will become so catastrophically bad that the truth is unavoidable, but until that happens I don't see much hope for change.  Of course, when that happens it may be too late for the change to be effective.  :P

The problem I see is twofold: 1) climate change will never become catastrophically bad because the change is glacial (that pun may become archaic if we keep things up), thereby giving people time to adapt and see a shittier world as the new normal, and 2) the short-term individual economic disincentives for action on climate change are strong, whereas the long-term individual economic incentives are extremely weak.

I am personally convinced that meaningful change could happen, but that it would likely have to come from the leadership on the right (as compared to a supermajority on the left). That way, conservatives can rah rah that their party did something, liberals can swallow the plan as advancing their goals, and the plan would have a meaningful economic basis so that it doesn't get overturned in a short period of time following the next transfer of power. Needless to say, I'm not holding my breath.

I agree that long term foresight and leadership from the right is required and essential on this issue for it to ever be fixed.  But that's also pretty much why I'm convinced that meaningful change cannot happen.

RangerOne

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2020, 01:31:23 PM »
You are suggesting attempts to solve a problem that may or may not even be a meaningful way to improve the situation. The number one rule that change should abide by is that undue burden should not be placed on people for little to no potential benefit.

Cars for instance are only maybe 15% of our problem. And that is at a global scale. If you do want to phase out cars I think the infrastructure to avoid them simply has to be built up to make driving less desirable. As opposed to adding needless penalties on existing behavior.

Cities need to push hard and fast to improve green public transit. Existing cars need to move towards greener models. Electric, hybrid, fuel cell or any combination. The grid providing power for green cars needs to become more green. But we should have to sacrifice cultural staples like road trips and the easy ability to commute over long distances.

Encourage people to bike more is not a realistic solution in many cities where work and living areas are simply not in proximity to each other to create a desirable bike commute. Would it be healthy for me to bike 15 miles to and from work every day? Sure, but I don't want to have to do it and the road blocks to make that safer than driving are vast in my city. For a green future city planning probably needs an overhaul but again that involves a lot of challenging policy.

Your never going to get overwhelming positive response to forcing people to make drastic changes in their day to day lives with no immediate perceivable benefit. That's just a recipe for dead on arrival public policy.You instead have to make the greener alternatives more attractive to allow people to naturally transition.

Raising gas prices pisses off a lot of people because it is already an area where most families get squeezed. Part of me cynically approves of it as a way to punish idiots who buy raised trucks, in the hopes that one day raising prices will make it to expensive for them to own their dangerous vehicles. And that is why I vote yes on every gas hike in California to stick it to those people regardless of how asinine the use of those tax dollars might be. But it is still policy that wont be well received.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #38 on: February 07, 2020, 01:42:42 PM »
I don't think the way to make changes happen in the USA is anything involving raising taxes. I do however think you can make changes and then raise taxes to pay for it slowly later.

Rather than force people to pay more fees to own a car and to drive it, quietly build bike paths, allow people to use golfcarts near their homes, re-organize streets so there is less neighborhood traffic so people consider walking or biking more, build shops with apartments above, more bike racks around town, more events that people can attend and walk to, etc.

Over time the adjustments are made, people learn to love the adjustments - and meanwhile taxes and fees are gently and slowly adjusted to help pay for things.

This way it isn't conservatives vs liberals, big business versus city government, etc. Places people WANT to live are created.

When I talk to people here (red state) they would never consider riding a bike on errands or to commute to work b/c it is unsafe. And it is dicey in places. People won't walk because the places they shop include a 40 acre parking lot out front. Walking from store to store with shopping is a ridiculous idea. A mall is functionally better perhaps. A rejuvenated neighborhood with shops is better.

What you're saying sounds completely reasonable to me, but in my, actual, lived experience, it doesn't seem to be the case.

Where we live now, there is a great bike path along the river, just a couple blocks from our house. Pretty much nobody uses it, though. Recently, there were public meetings to discuss the renovation of a major road that runs through our neighborhood. Residents were given several different scenarios to vote on. One scenario would have reduced some parking spots and limited car lanes in some places, in exchange for a new bike path, which would have been separated from cars by a physical barrier. Residents voted overwhelmingly for the plan that nixed the bike path in favor of more parking spots and more lanes for cars.

In my experience, Americans won't even begin to consider riding a bike or walking somewhere, no matter how safe the infrastructure may be, until driving in their own personal automobile becomes so painful they're basically forced to change. Until then, they will continue to drive their cars everywhere they go.

Even people we know who say they are on board with "fighting climate change," what they really mean is they are willing to fight to force other people and distant, big corporations and governments to change. That they, personally, might have to change anything in their own lives seems unfathomable to most of them.

Last summer, some neighbors invited us to go with them to a "climate strike" protest about a mile from our houses. We were like, yeah, sure we'll go. As we talked more about it, though, it became clear that our neighbors were planning on driving their minivan downtown to go to the "strike." Of course, I suggested we walk the mile to the protest, but our neighbors didn't like that idea very much. Next, I suggested we just take one car. Our neighbors never responded to my text. Later, they explained that they thought, "it would just be more convenient to take separate cars." My wife and I, of course, walked to the protest. Our neighbors drove their car, and we met them there. At the protest I ended up arguing with our neighbors, because I couldn't resist pointing out the hypocrisy of all of the people, who had mostly all driven their SUVs and clown cars into the city, exacerbating an already bad parking situation there, to go to a protest against climate change... Needless to say, our neighbors didn't care too much for that line of discussion. I need to learn to just keep my mouth shut.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #39 on: February 07, 2020, 01:45:42 PM »
Raising gas prices pisses off a lot of people because it is already an area where most families get squeezed. Part of me cynically approves of it as a way to punish idiots who buy raised trucks, in the hopes that one day raising prices will make it to expensive for them to own their dangerous vehicles. And that is why I vote yes on every gas hike in California to stick it to those people regardless of how asinine the use of those tax dollars might be. But it is still policy that wont be well received.

I'm a proponent of the carbon tax dividend. Tax the hell* out of carbon pollution, then provide a per capita dividend to every U.S. citizen equal to the total tax receipts (and in fact, give it out at the beginning of program implementation, and maybe every three months like Vanguard distributes dividends). In this scheme, nobody is going to be paying more, except for the above-average polluters.

*Granted, this tax would rise progressively over time to give the worst polluters some time to react and adjust their behavior.

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #40 on: February 07, 2020, 01:56:10 PM »
What you're saying sounds completely reasonable to me, but in my, actual, lived experience, it doesn't seem to be the case....

<snip>


Yeah, what Shane says pretty much sums it up. Until we tax fossil fuels enough to where driving even a mile causes people to pause and think about the money they have to spend, we are not going to make much forward progress with the general population. Reducing one's own infinitesimal contribution to climate change is just not high on almost anybody's personal priorities.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #41 on: February 07, 2020, 01:56:38 PM »
You are suggesting attempts to solve a problem that may or may not even be a meaningful way to improve the situation. The number one rule that change should abide by is that undue burden should not be placed on people for little to no potential benefit.

Cars for instance are only maybe 15% of our problem. And that is at a global scale. If you do want to phase out cars I think the infrastructure to avoid them simply has to be built up to make driving less desirable. As opposed to adding needless penalties on existing behavior.

Cities need to push hard and fast to improve green public transit. Existing cars need to move towards greener models. Electric, hybrid, fuel cell or any combination. The grid providing power for green cars needs to become more green. But we should have to sacrifice cultural staples like road trips and the easy ability to commute over long distances.

Encourage people to bike more is not a realistic solution in many cities where work and living areas are simply not in proximity to each other to create a desirable bike commute. Would it be healthy for me to bike 15 miles to and from work every day? Sure, but I don't want to have to do it and the road blocks to make that safer than driving are vast in my city. For a green future city planning probably needs an overhaul but again that involves a lot of challenging policy.

Your never going to get overwhelming positive response to forcing people to make drastic changes in their day to day lives with no immediate perceivable benefit. That's just a recipe for dead on arrival public policy.You instead have to make the greener alternatives more attractive to allow people to naturally transition.

Raising gas prices pisses off a lot of people because it is already an area where most families get squeezed. Part of me cynically approves of it as a way to punish idiots who buy raised trucks, in the hopes that one day raising prices will make it to expensive for them to own their dangerous vehicles. And that is why I vote yes on every gas hike in California to stick it to those people regardless of how asinine the use of those tax dollars might be. But it is still policy that wont be well received.

Back around 2008-2009, when gas prices where we were living at the time were up around ~$4.50/gallon and diesel was selling for well over $5/gallon, people who had been driving jacked up pickup trucks, some of them 50+ miles each way, back and forth to work for years, suddenly realized it was costing some of them more just for gasoline than they were earning at their low wage jobs. In order to prevent a revolution, our mayor at the time decided to increase the number of public buses and make them all free to the public. When bus fares dropped to $0 and gas was selling for  almost $5/gallon, suddenly the public buses were FULL, whereas, previously, they had been only very sparsely used. Now that gas is cheap again and a new mayor re-instituted bus fares, most people have gone back to their preferred mode of transportation - private automobiles - to commute back and forth to work.

GuitarStv

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #42 on: February 07, 2020, 02:27:55 PM »
Where we live now, there is a great bike path along the river, just a couple blocks from our house. Pretty much nobody uses it, though. Recently, there were public meetings to discuss the renovation of a major road that runs through our neighborhood. Residents were given several different scenarios to vote on. One scenario would have reduced some parking spots and limited car lanes in some places, in exchange for a new bike path, which would have been separated from cars by a physical barrier. Residents voted overwhelmingly for the plan that nixed the bike path in favor of more parking spots and more lanes for cars.

There are a couple things here:

1.  Bike infrastructure needs to meed needs of people before they'll use it.  I've seen plenty of 'great bike paths along the river' that were designed by people who don't cycle for transport.  They tend to be nice for walking the dog, or taking the kid out on Saturday . . . but useless to get from place to place.  It's like building a 20 mile loop of freeway with a single on/off ramp just outside of town to address traffic congestion, and then being shocked that nobody seems to be using it.

That doesn't mean that people don't want to ride bikes, but it's frustratingly often used to shoot down bike infrastructure.

2.  People are notoriously bad at judging usage of cycle paths.  I wouldn't believe 'hardly used' claims if the bike path is in a sensible location though unless a proper study has been done.  There are several bike routes that folks argued were "hardly used" and should be removed here in Toronto.  Studies showed that they averaged about a thousand cyclists an hour.  They just seem empty all the time when compared to lines of cars in bumper to bumper gridlock next to 'em.

PDXTabs

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #43 on: February 07, 2020, 02:56:04 PM »
Cars for instance are only maybe 15% of our problem. And that is at a global scale. If you do want to phase out cars I think the infrastructure to avoid them simply has to be built up to make driving less desirable. As opposed to adding needless penalties on existing behavior.

Cities need to push hard and fast to improve green public transit. Existing cars need to move towards greener models. Electric, hybrid, fuel cell or any combination. The grid providing power for green cars needs to become more green. But we should have to sacrifice cultural staples like road trips and the easy ability to commute over long distances.

Encourage people to bike more is not a realistic solution in many cities where work and living areas are simply not in proximity to each other to create a desirable bike commute. Would it be healthy for me to bike 15 miles to and from work every day? Sure, but I don't want to have to do it and the road blocks to make that safer than driving are vast in my city. For a green future city planning probably needs an overhaul but again that involves a lot of challenging policy.

FWIW transportation is 29% of US green house gas emissions. How better to address this than to tax carbon and use the revenue to build green infrastructure?

As far as people who live too far out to be economically feasible to truly combat anthropic climate change, I don't care about them. My family lost our family farm because it was no longer economically feasible. I learned about man made climate change in 7th grade, and I'm 36 years old. Suck it up buttercup. A bunch of east coast real estate will soon be worth nothing, they should have seen that coming.

nessness

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #44 on: February 07, 2020, 03:01:44 PM »
Has anyone read the book We are the Weather by Jonathan Safron Foer? It's partly a book advocating for eating fewer animal products, but he also focuses a lot on the emotional aspects of climate change - in his words (paraphrased), why so many people who say they believe in the science of climate change live as if they do not.

Some of the reasons:
- It's harder to care about a gradual worsening of things than a sudden catastrophe
- The people with the biggest effect on climate change (people in wealthy countries) are the least affected by it
- It's difficult to say definitively whether any one flood, storm, unusually hot summer, etc. was caused by climate change

Boofinator

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #45 on: February 07, 2020, 03:25:04 PM »
Where we live now, there is a great bike path along the river, just a couple blocks from our house. Pretty much nobody uses it, though. Recently, there were public meetings to discuss the renovation of a major road that runs through our neighborhood. Residents were given several different scenarios to vote on. One scenario would have reduced some parking spots and limited car lanes in some places, in exchange for a new bike path, which would have been separated from cars by a physical barrier. Residents voted overwhelmingly for the plan that nixed the bike path in favor of more parking spots and more lanes for cars.

There are a couple things here:

1.  Bike infrastructure needs to meed needs of people before they'll use it.  I've seen plenty of 'great bike paths along the river' that were designed by people who don't cycle for transport.  They tend to be nice for walking the dog, or taking the kid out on Saturday . . . but useless to get from place to place.  It's like building a 20 mile loop of freeway with a single on/off ramp just outside of town to address traffic congestion, and then being shocked that nobody seems to be using it.

That doesn't mean that people don't want to ride bikes, but it's frustratingly often used to shoot down bike infrastructure.

2.  People are notoriously bad at judging usage of cycle paths.  I wouldn't believe 'hardly used' claims if the bike path is in a sensible location though unless a proper study has been done.  There are several bike routes that folks argued were "hardly used" and should be removed here in Toronto.  Studies showed that they averaged about a thousand cyclists an hour.  They just seem empty all the time when compared to lines of cars in bumper to bumper gridlock next to 'em.

Agreed on both points. There is a world of difference between good and poor bike infrastructure, for both the cyclists and auto drivers.

That being said, I'm going to propose a third point: Until there is a severe economic penalty for driving a car relative to riding a bike, then riding a bike is going to be seen by most as frivolous. The corollary is that when such an economic penalty occurs, the demand for bike infrastructure should rise accordingly, as it will become generally accepted as a legitimate mode of transportation.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #46 on: February 07, 2020, 05:52:26 PM »
Where we live now, there is a great bike path along the river, just a couple blocks from our house. Pretty much nobody uses it, though. Recently, there were public meetings to discuss the renovation of a major road that runs through our neighborhood. Residents were given several different scenarios to vote on. One scenario would have reduced some parking spots and limited car lanes in some places, in exchange for a new bike path, which would have been separated from cars by a physical barrier. Residents voted overwhelmingly for the plan that nixed the bike path in favor of more parking spots and more lanes for cars.

There are a couple things here:

1.  Bike infrastructure needs to meed needs of people before they'll use it.  I've seen plenty of 'great bike paths along the river' that were designed by people who don't cycle for transport.  They tend to be nice for walking the dog, or taking the kid out on Saturday . . . but useless to get from place to place.  It's like building a 20 mile loop of freeway with a single on/off ramp just outside of town to address traffic congestion, and then being shocked that nobody seems to be using it.

That doesn't mean that people don't want to ride bikes, but it's frustratingly often used to shoot down bike infrastructure.

2.  People are notoriously bad at judging usage of cycle paths.  I wouldn't believe 'hardly used' claims if the bike path is in a sensible location though unless a proper study has been done.  There are several bike routes that folks argued were "hardly used" and should be removed here in Toronto.  Studies showed that they averaged about a thousand cyclists an hour.  They just seem empty all the time when compared to lines of cars in bumper to bumper gridlock next to 'em.

TBH, my estimation that the bike path along the river is hardly used comes mostly from hearsay. Occasionally, I walk the path along the river, and I sometimes see a bicycle or two, but not many. It would be interesting to sit down near the bike path, some day, and spend some time actually systematically counting bicycles that pass by. There may be more bikes than I think. For sure not 1K bikes/hour, but probably more than just a few.

Shane

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #47 on: February 07, 2020, 06:02:54 PM »
Cars for instance are only maybe 15% of our problem. And that is at a global scale. If you do want to phase out cars I think the infrastructure to avoid them simply has to be built up to make driving less desirable. As opposed to adding needless penalties on existing behavior.

Cities need to push hard and fast to improve green public transit. Existing cars need to move towards greener models. Electric, hybrid, fuel cell or any combination. The grid providing power for green cars needs to become more green. But we should have to sacrifice cultural staples like road trips and the easy ability to commute over long distances.

Encourage people to bike more is not a realistic solution in many cities where work and living areas are simply not in proximity to each other to create a desirable bike commute. Would it be healthy for me to bike 15 miles to and from work every day? Sure, but I don't want to have to do it and the road blocks to make that safer than driving are vast in my city. For a green future city planning probably needs an overhaul but again that involves a lot of challenging policy.

FWIW transportation is 29% of US green house gas emissions. How better to address this than to tax carbon and use the revenue to build green infrastructure?

As far as people who live too far out to be economically feasible to truly combat anthropic climate change, I don't care about them. My family lost our family farm because it was no longer economically feasible. I learned about man made climate change in 7th grade, and I'm 36 years old. Suck it up buttercup. A bunch of east coast real estate will soon be worth nothing, they should have seen that coming.

When people ask me, "Well what about the poor people who live 50+ miles outside of town and "have" to commute to work 100 miles round trip everyday?" Apparently, my answer sounds really harsh to them, but I tell them that the purpose of taxing fuel and making driving more expensive is to push those types of people into making more sustainable choices, i.e., if they're going to work at an office job in a city, move into town! It makes total sense for people who make a living farming or maybe work remotely online to live far out in the country if that's what makes them happy, but if you work at a 9-5 city job, living way the fuck out in the country might be nice, but either you have to be willing to pay the true cost of living like that, or you need to move closer to where you work and shop and recreate. People don't want to hear that, though. I'm told it's an "elitist argument."...

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #48 on: February 07, 2020, 06:32:21 PM »
Well, I might start with the title. Referring to the people you’re trying to persuade a “muggles” isn’t exactly persuasive. To me, the rest of the post indicates that you’ve already graciously decided what the problem is as well as the available solutions. So the goal then isn’t so much to persuade, but to conquer.

Good luck with that.

If you’re actually interested in accomplishing something worthwhile, you might want to start by watching and listening. And having as open and creative a mind as possible.

js82

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Re: Talking With Muggles About Climate Change
« Reply #49 on: February 07, 2020, 08:05:44 PM »
- It's difficult to say definitively whether any one flood, storm, unusually hot summer, etc. was caused by climate change

The reality is that climate change does not *cause* disasters, but it makes them worse.  Warmer temperatures increase moisture turnover, which make droughts *AND* floods worse.

The problem is, saying that climate change makes each hurricane/flood/drought a bit worse(largely true) versus *causing* a disaster that would not have otherwise happened(unprovable, at best) doesn't make for a terribly persuasive argument on the impacts of climate change, even if the cumulative magnitude of its effects are massive

I think arguments against air pollution(which causes a wide range of negative health effects) are far more personal and persuasive when it comes to advancing the cause of environmental advocacy.  No one wants to breath filthy air that gives them lung cancer/other respiratory issues.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 08:34:41 PM by js82 »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!